Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 220552

1252 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014


The 06Z aviation discussion can be found below.



Scattered showers continue to percolate across parts of the area
tonight, and thus have maintained mention of -SHRA in KHOB and
KCNM TAFs. Flight conditions will remain largely VFR, though
periods of MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out as showers move
through the area, mainly before 18Z Wednesday. One exception is
KPEQ, where a window exists from roughly 10-14Z for some transient
MVFR fog development. Otherwise, not many changes made to the
going TAF package, as light southeast winds will prevail, with
ceilings scattering out by latter portion of the TAF period.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014/

Minor shrtwv trof within mid level trof axis is lifting nwd across
the PB with SHRA renewed in wrn PB/SE NM. Presence of clouds have
limited surface based instability so only low order PoPs warranted
rest of afternoon/evening, especially ern 1/3 of CWFA. The exception
will be to the w and mostly north of I-20 where said mid level trof
will sharpen some and where mid level lift will increase late tonight.
PoPs tonight were in the sct-likely range across the w, but that
was probably too high/too far e (in the 06Z-12Z window) and have
opted to decrease those on the southern and eastern extent before
12Z. Pretty good agreement that highest Pops will be btwn 15Z-21Z
Wed across the PB, which is handled well in current fcst. Local
heavy rain is still possible too and have included a mention Wed
across parts of the PB where PoPs are generally greater than 55%.
The chance of rain will move ewd thru the CWFA into Thur AM with
the slow moving mid level trof. Rain cooled air underneath lower
heights will make for below normal temps Wed PM. Mostly trending
warmer and drier Thur-Sunday with hier heights Thur-Fri and more
prominent low level thermal ridging Sat- Monday. Models do
indicate that front has slowed from Monday afternoon (as seen in
yesterdays runs) to Tuesday morning.






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