Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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566
FXUS64 KMAF 071735
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms remain possible along a weak front sagging down
across the area. Have included TSRA at MAF and FST... could have
a few near INK also. Have some MVFR cigs remaining this
afternoon... these may briefly go away but should surge back
across the area tonight.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Current radar is showing an area of moderate to heavy rain in the
northeastern Permian Basin and western low rolling plains.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches have been observed on Texas
Tech mesonet sites in Borden and Scurry Counties which is already
above flash flood guidance. This rain is focused along a weak
cold front that is bisecting the Permian Basin from NE-SW and
where the most widespread rainfall will occur today will depend
on the position of this feature. Additional showers are being
supported by a very slow moving upper level trough moving across
west Texas. Precipitable water values are well above normal so
storms will be proficient rain producers and thus have issued a
Flash Flood Watch for the flooding threat. The greatest flood
potential will be in the eastern portion of the watch area but
with PWATs approaching 2 inches any storm could produce flash
flooding so decided to make the watch large enough to include most
of the CWA except those areas farthest from the upper trough.

Most of the rain is expected today and tomorrow, then will
diminish and shift to the Guadalupe Mountains later this week and
end altogether by the weekend as an upper level high retrogrades
from the southeastern U.S. over into the Central Plains. Well
below normal temperatures today will climb through the next seven
days as subsidence from the upper high increases. GFS and ECMWF
extended MOS guidance are showing highs approaching 100 degrees
early next week but this seems a bit too high. In drought years
deep easterly flow on the southern periphery of the high could
advect hot and dry air in from central Texas but this year there
has been plenty of moisture available so highs in this regime
should hold to the mid 90s.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County...Northern Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

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