Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 212327

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
527 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015


Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.



VFR conditions with light winds and clear skies will prevail
through the forecast period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015/

The forecast for tonight still looks good as surface high
pressure settles into west Texas, temperatures will fall well into
the 20s tonight across most of the area resulting in the first
hard freeze of the season.

Sunday through Wednesday westerly upper level flow will resume
gradually warming temperatures back above normal. The pattern
amplifies late Wednesday as an upper trough moves into the
northern Rockies. There has been inconsistencies in the
development of this trough between models, though there is
agreement that the flow will back from the southwest...increasing
moisture and precipitation chances especially in the central and
eastern Permian Basin. This trough will push a cold front through
the area on Friday and the model inconsistencies become important
because temperatures behind the front approach that needed for a
wintry mix. This is still at the end of the forecast period so
due to considerable uncertainty, kept the p-type as liquid with a
little wintry mix in the northwestern Permian Basin and in the
Davis Mountains. Do not want to hit this hard at this time but the
potential is there.



NM...Hard Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Sunday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

TX...Hard Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Sunday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...
     Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54


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