Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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079
FXUS64 KMAF 290523
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
out of the southeast overnight and will gradually weaken over the
next few hours.  Winds will become southerly Tuesday afternoon with
some possible gusts.  There is a slight chance of thunderstorms for
HOB through the period, but probabilities remain low so left out of
TAFS for now.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered directly over West
Texas/SE NM, a bit further south than 24 hours ago.  However, the
ridge has weakened slightly, and w/abundant cloud cover noted on vis
sat imagery and out the window, temperatures are noticeably cooler
this afternoon than yesterday. Yesterday`s boundary that stalled
north of the FA finally moved south this morning/afternoon,
spawning an almost instantaneous cu field along and behind it.
Area radars show a few cells trying to develop near KSWW, near a
bullseye of 2000+ sbcape over KSNK. The NAM develops stronger
convection on a vort max moving into east central NM this evening,
but that should stay mostly north of here. Aside from that, we`ve
inserted isolated POPs this evening...mainly north of the Pecos
along the boundary. NAM then hints at moving this feature back
north overnight, which will serve as a focus for Tuesday over the
northern zones.

Temps Tuesday should be similar to today`s, but temps are still on
tap to climb back into the triple digits Wednesday afternoon as
thicknesses spike and south winds increase in response to leeside
troughing.  However, a cold front is still on tap to move into the
area Wednesday night.  Models are considerably stronger w/this
feature than 24 hours ago, and this looks to the best focus/trigger
for convection this forecast.  Models hint at a high wind event for
post-frontal gap winds at KGDP...but given winds from the
N-NE...we`ll not bite on this just yet...as a more E-W orientation
is preferred.  Thursday afternoon looks cool, w/H85 temps in the NE
zones in the upper teens by 00Z Friday.  Much will depend on extent
of Wednesday night`s rainfall, and residual cloud cover behind the
front.

Friday, things begin warming back up as the upper ridge sets up over
the Four Corners more or less into the extended.  However, temps
should remain below normal as thicknesses don`t budge much and the
CWA remains in easterly or even northeasterly flow.  Again, w/no
triggers to focus on, and minor disturbances moving thru the east
side of the ridge, cannot rule out the low-POP, shotgun scenario
currently in the grids.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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