Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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557
FXUS64 KMAF 240449
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1049 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
The first 12 hours of the TAF are pretty much a persistence
forecast. There may be some lower CIG/VIS near sunrise with the
potential for freezing fog to develop, but do not have enough
confidence to place in the TAFs. VFR conditions expected most
locations by 18Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Busy day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, weatherwise.
IR imagery shows warming cloud tops as deeper moisture moves east in
zonal flow aloft.  At the sfc...temps have budged little all day,
and remain well blo freezing except areas far south.  Main problems
today had been slippery roadways from -FZRA/DL overnight, w/numerous
accidents, rollovers, and even a few fatalities.  Ice accumulations
ranged as high as 1/4" in the NE, to lesser amounts
elsewhere.

While precip has largely ended, most of the area will remain mired
in the soup overnight, w/areas of -FZDL.  Plenty of black ice
remains, temps are not anticipated to budge overnight, and
w/accidents ongoing, we have opted to downgrade the warning to an
advisory, and extended the advisories thru until 18Z Tuesday, after
which temps will climb abv freezing.

Temps will continue warming thru Wednesday, but top out Wednesday
afternoon blo normal.  Meanwhile, the upper closed low over central
CA is forecast to open, begin shearing, and move east thru West
Texas/SE NM Tuesday night, affording a slight chance of -SHRA
Tuesday evening.  The Wrn Low Rolling Plains and Permian Basin could
see a changeover to -FZRA after midnight as precip exits east...but
QPF looks light.  Wednesday night, a cold front will move thru the
region, w/isentropic upglide commencing over the NE zones Thursday
night.  ECMWF forecast soundings saturate the column far enough up
for a chance of SN Thursday night thru Friday night, esp NE zones.
Temps warm into the weekend, climbing abv normal Sunday.  An
approaching upper trough and SW flow aloft will re-introduce a
chance of SHRA Sunday night and
Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Tuesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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