Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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042
FXUS64 KMAF 131738
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
Strong northerly winds will quickly diminish by sunset this
evening. Winds will become light and variable and stay that way
through Tuesday. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough exiting the Texas Panhandle into
OK, as models forecast 24 hrs ago.  Sfc analysis shows the cold
front in the Lwr Trans Pecos/Big Bend area, w/earlier convection
having diminished to -SHRA, and exiting the area to the east.  As
such, the svr t-storm watch was allowed to expire.  In addition, sfc
obs show that the wind warnings/advisories can be cancelled w/this
morning`s package issuance.

As the sfc ridge moves into the area today, models keep pressure
gradients tight, for brisk northerly flow thru the late afternoon.
This will keep afternoon highs about a cat below normal.  Tonight,
as gradients drop off and under clear skies, West Texas/SE NM will
see the coldest night yet this fall, w/the Marfa Plateau flirting
w/a light freeze Tuesday morning.  As first freezes are fickle,
we`ve gone w/a watch for now, and will let the next shift reevaluate
the situation as later model data allows.

Tuesday, light return flow resumes, and temperatures rebound to near
normal.  Temps continue to climb Wed/Thu, before a dry cold front
moves thru Thursday night/Friday.  Temps try to rebound over the
weekend, but models bring another...stronger front into the region
Sunday afternoon or Sunday night, taking temps back to near normal
Monday, with perhaps a chance of rain.  GFS and ECMWF are similar in
temps, so we`ve used a blend in the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FREEZE WATCH Tuesday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Marfa
     Plateau.


&&

$$

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