Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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033
FXUS64 KMAF 031847
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
147 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be common across southeast
New Mexico and the higher terrain of west Texas through this
evening, if not overnight as a plume of mid and upper level
moisture continues to spread over the region around/under a
somewhat weakened ua ridge.  Morning showers and storms over the
Permian basin have waned, but another round of convection has
begun to develop over the higher terrain of west Texas under the
said plume of moisture, and expect the same over SE NM in the next
few hours.  Due to good heating and a dry subcloud layer, gusty
winds will be possible with the stronger storms, but also heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding due to PWats ramping up to
near 1.5 inches.  Expect this higher mid level theta e air to
push southward Tuesday, so will continue the trend of higher PoPs
over the southern half or so of the CWA then.  Clouds/precipitation
will likely keep high temperatures down a degree or two today and
Tuesday in most locations, if not several degrees in areas
receiving heavy rainfall.

From Wednesday through next weekend, it appears rain chances will be
at a premium while hot temperatures will be common.  This as the ua
ridge strengthens over the region and moisture becomes more scarce
through the atmospheric column.  Think high temperatures will reach/
exceed 100 degrees over most locations outside the mountains
Wednesday, then stay that way through at least Sunday.  A few record
high temperatures may be challenged also, especially Wednesday
through Friday. Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  77  97  75 101  /  40  20  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                    73 100  72 104  /  40  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                      75 100  77 103  /  10  20  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               76  96  75 101  /  30  40  20   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              69  90  71  96  /  40  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                       72  97  70  99  /  40  10  10   0
MARFA TX                       63  89  64  93  /  30  40  30  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        75  97  75 103  /  40  20  10   0
ODESSA TX                      76  97  76 102  /  40  20  10   0
WINK TX                        76 101  76 105  /  50  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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