Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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076
FXUS64 KMAF 280908
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
408 AM CDT Thu May 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Storms have quieted down this morning after a fairly active
Wednesday evening. Looking for a repeat this afternoon with
possibly more widespread convection than what we saw yesterday. A
dampening upper trough will provide enough lift for showers and
thunderstorms to develop as it moves across the region later today.
The dryline will be held back west across SE NM again today with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s east of the boundary. Sfc heating
combined with a moist environment will lead to a strong instability
axis developing across the Permian Basin and SE NM south to the Big
Bend. CAPE values are expected to exceed 3000 J/kg with lapse rates
near 8 C/km. Deep layer shear near 35 kts will be more than enough
to support organized convection across the area. Several clusters of
strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop during the
afternoon with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats.
These clusters may eventually form into one larger complex and move
east across the region overnight. Heavy rain and localized flooding
will also be a possibility due to a mostly saturated ground and
PWATs climbing over an inch.

Friday should be mostly dry and very warm as we await a cold front
moving south across the Plains. This front will arrive Friday night
and Saturday morning with another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Models are hinting that a convective system will form
across the TX Panhandle Friday night and sweep across the northern
half of the area. Could see more severe weather and almost certainly
some heavy rain with this system. A Flash Flood Watch may be needed
if model trends continue. This convection will likely give the front
an extra push into the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend. For this
reason will carry highest PoPs in these areas for Saturday
afternoon. Temperatures will cool well below normal Saturday
afternoon with highs mostly in the 70s and 80s.

Long term models are showing an upper level pattern change beginning
early next week. An upper ridge, albeit weak, looks to build in from
the west. If this holds, our region along with the rest of the
Southern Plains will get a break from precipitation. A few
isolated storms can`t be ruled out but the majority of us will
stay dry. Temperatures will also be on the way up with highs
likely pushing well into the 90s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 83  65  90  63  /  50  40  20  40
BIG SPRING TX              84  67  91  66  /  50  60  30  50
CARLSBAD NM                92  59  94  61  /  40  20  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  90  68  93  69  /  50  40  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           89  66  94  66  /  50  30  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          87  59  88  59  /  30  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   83  62  86  61  /  50  30  20  40
MARFA TX                   87  51  88  56  /  40  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  66  91  66  /  50  40  20  30
ODESSA TX                  86  66  91  66  /  50  40  20  30
WINK TX                    91  65  97  67  /  40  30  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/29

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206
FXUS64 KMAF 280537
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1237 AM CDT Thu May 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Latest sfc obs show moisture/dryline backed all the way up against
the mtns, making for a muggy night. Earlier convection continues
to wane, but models redevelop activity Thursday as a few minor
shortwaves move thru SW flow aloft to initiate things. Meanwhile,
forecast soundings develop a fairly widespread stratus deck over
the next few hours, w/IFR cigs forming at KMAF/KHOB/KINK, and MVFR
at KCNM/KFST. This will dissapate by late morning, to be replaced
by a cu field w/bases 2-9 kft agl. Models are all over the place
w/convection, so we`ll not insert it unless needed.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The dryline is along the terrain of the Davis and Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon.  An upper level trough is over the western
conus with the CWA under west to southwest flow aloft.  A surface
trough is developing across far West Texas and a shortwave trough is
expected to move over the area later this afternoon.  Upper level
lift is expected to be rather impressive later today according to
the NAM80 with 500 mb omega values enhanced over the Trans Pecos and
a vorticity maximum over this same area.  Mid-level lapse rates will
be good this afternoon and early evening with values of 8+ degrees
C/km for some places.  Surface CAPE values according to the NAM12
are very impressive this afternoon with many places having values of
4000+ J/kg.  Bulk shear values of 35 - 40 kts on the NAM12 in
addition to the previously mentioned conditions will be sufficient
for severe thunderstorms to develop beginning this afternoon.  High
temperatures for today are expected to be similar to yesterday.

The storms that develop today are expected to continue into the
overnight period.  CAPE values will decrease throughout the night
but will still remain good, and upper lift will still be enhanced
over the area as shortwaves move overhead so severe storms will
remain possible through the night.  Mid-level lapse rates will be 8+
degrees C/km across a large portion of the area by 12z Thursday
providing great instability.  It is possible that an MCS similar to
Monday morning could develop during the early to mid morning hours
on Thursday.  Severe weather will likely develop/continue into
Thursday afternoon given good mid-level lapse rates, widespread CAPE
values of 4000+ J/kg, and sufficient bulk shear.  Storm development
during the afternoon hours on Thursday will depend on whatever
develops during the early morning hours and the
boundaries/conditions left as a result of this convection.  The 12z
run of the NAM12 doesn`t have any precipitation across the CWA at
06z Friday, but both the GFS and ECMWF indicate very heavy precip
across the eastern half of the CWA at this time.  Might need a Flash
Flood Watch for this time period but do not have enough confidence
to issue one at this point.

Rain and storm chances will decrease by Friday afternoon but will
still be possible given that a dryline will be present.  A cold
front associated with an upper trough moving over the Upper Midwest
will push into the CWA Saturday morning.  Lift along this front will
once again increase precipitation chances across the area for
Saturday.  Highs on Saturday will cool into the mid 70s to mid 80s
across the area as a result of this front and the associated
precipitation.  Rain and storms will remain possible across the
higher terrain on Sunday afternoon as a result of the front.
Temperatures on Sunday are expected to remain cool as the surface
ridge will be across the area.  Rain chances will still be present
but will significantly decrease Monday through Wednesday of next
week as an upper ridge builds over the region.  Temperatures will
also increase to near normal values during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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788
FXUS64 KMAF 272352
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
652 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concerns for the next 24 hours is TSRA this
evening and low cigs early Thursday morning. Currently have gusty SE
winds at all but PEQ where erratic thunderstorm winds prevail. Have
some severe convection affecting the region this evening and will
continue mention of TSRA for the next couple of hours at PEQ and INK
then arrive at HOB around 01Z. May see convection hang around for a
while and will continue to monitor for any changes to current TAFs.
Large hail is the main threat with these storms although heavy
rainfall will likely result in a brief period of low vis. Overnight,
gusts should subside however sustained speeds are expected to remain
somewhat elevated. Increasing moisture will result in low stratus
affecting all but maybe PEQ during the early morning hours Thursday.
Otherwise, cigs will lift and scatter by mid morning and VFR
conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The dryline is along the terrain of the Davis and Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon.  An upper level trough is over the western
conus with the CWA under west to southwest flow aloft.  A surface
trough is developing across far West Texas and a shortwave trough is
expected to move over the area later this afternoon.  Upper level
lift is expected to be rather impressive later today according to
the NAM80 with 500 mb omega values enhanced over the Trans Pecos and
a vorticity maximum over this same area.  Mid-level lapse rates will
be good this afternoon and early evening with values of 8+ degrees
C/km for some places.  Surface CAPE values according to the NAM12
are very impressive this afternoon with many places having values of
4000+ J/kg.  Bulk shear values of 35 - 40 kts on the NAM12 in
addition to the previously mentioned conditions will be sufficient
for severe thunderstorms to develop beginning this afternoon.  High
temperatures for today are expected to be similar to yesterday.

The storms that develop today are expected to continue into the
overnight period.  CAPE values will decrease throughout the night
but will still remain good, and upper lift will still be enhanced
over the area as shortwaves move overhead so severe storms will
remain possible through the night.  Mid-level lapse rates will be 8+
degrees C/km across a large portion of the area by 12z Thursday
providing great instability.  It is possible that an MCS similar to
Monday morning could develop during the early to mid morning hours
on Thursday.  Severe weather will likely develop/continue into
Thursday afternoon given good mid-level lapse rates, widespread CAPE
values of 4000+ J/kg, and sufficient bulk shear.  Storm development
during the afternoon hours on Thursday will depend on whatever
develops during the early morning hours and the
boundaries/conditions left as a result of this convection.  The 12z
run of the NAM12 doesn`t have any precipitation across the CWA at
06z Friday, but both the GFS and ECMWF indicate very heavy precip
across the eastern half of the CWA at this time.  Might need a Flash
Flood Watch for this time period but do not have enough confidence
to issue one at this point.

Rain and storm chances will decrease by Friday afternoon but will
still be possible given that a dryline will be present.  A cold
front associated with an upper trough moving over the Upper Midwest
will push into the CWA Saturday morning.  Lift along this front will
once again increase precipitation chances across the area for
Saturday.  Highs on Saturday will cool into the mid 70s to mid 80s
across the area as a result of this front and the associated
precipitation.  Rain and storms will remain possible across the
higher terrain on Sunday afternoon as a result of the front.
Temperatures on Sunday are expected to remain cool as the surface
ridge will be across the area.  Rain chances will still be present
but will significantly decrease Monday through Wednesday of next
week as an upper ridge builds over the region.  Temperatures will
also increase to near normal values during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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182
FXUS64 KMAF 271948
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
247 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The dryline is along the terrain of the Davis and Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon.  An upper level trough is over the western
conus with the CWA under west to southwest flow aloft.  A surface
trough is developing across far West Texas and a shortwave trough is
expected to move over the area later this afternoon.  Upper level
lift is expected to be rather impressive later today according to
the NAM80 with 500 mb omega values enhanced over the Trans Pecos and
a vorticity maximum over this same area.  Mid-level lapse rates will
be good this afternoon and early evening with values of 8+ degrees
C/km for some places.  Surface CAPE values according to the NAM12
are very impressive this afternoon with many places having values of
4000+ J/kg.  Bulk shear values of 35 - 40 kts on the NAM12 in
addition to the previously mentioned conditions will be sufficient
for severe thunderstorms to develop beginning this afternoon.  High
temperatures for today are expected to be similar to yesterday.

The storms that develop today are expected to continue into the
overnight period.  CAPE values will decrease throughout the night
but will still remain good, and upper lift will still be enhanced
over the area as shortwaves move overhead so severe storms will
remain possible through the night.  Mid-level lapse rates will be 8+
degrees C/km across a large portion of the area by 12z Thursday
providing great instability.  It is possible that an MCS similar to
Monday morning could develop during the early to mid morning hours
on Thursday.  Severe weather will likely develop/continue into
Thursday afternoon given good mid-level lapse rates, widespread CAPE
values of 4000+ J/kg, and sufficient bulk shear.  Storm development
during the afternoon hours on Thursday will depend on whatever
develops during the early morning hours and the
boundaries/conditions left as a result of this convection.  The 12z
run of the NAM12 doesn`t have any precipitation across the CWA at
06z Friday, but both the GFS and ECMWF indicate very heavy precip
across the eastern half of the CWA at this time.  Might need a Flash
Flood Watch for this time period but do not have enough confidence
to issue one at this point.

Rain and storm chances will decrease by Friday afternoon but will
still be possible given that a dryline will be present.  A cold
front associated with an upper trough moving over the Upper Midwest
will push into the CWA Saturday morning.  Lift along this front will
once again increase precipitation chances across the area for
Saturday.  Highs on Saturday will cool into the mid 70s to mid 80s
across the area as a result of this front and the associated
precipitation.  Rain and storms will remain possible across the
higher terrain on Sunday afternoon as a result of the front.
Temperatures on Sunday are expected to remain cool as the surface
ridge will be across the area.  Rain chances will still be present
but will significantly decrease Monday through Wednesday of next
week as an upper ridge builds over the region.  Temperatures will
also increase to near normal values during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  83  66  90  /  40  50  40  10
BIG SPRING TX              69  83  68  88  /  40  50  50  20
CARLSBAD NM                63  91  58  94  /  40  40  30  10
DRYDEN TX                  74  86  69  87  /  30  50  50  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  86  66  93  /  40  50  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          62  87  58  89  /  40  30  20  10
HOBBS NM                   63  82  63  90  /  40  50  40  10
MARFA TX                   60  83  53  87  /  40  40  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  83  68  90  /  40  50  50  20
ODESSA TX                  69  83  67  91  /  40  50  50  10
WINK TX                    70  87  66  96  /  40  50  40  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/80

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147
FXUS64 KMAF 271826
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
126 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 27/18Z forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR with gusty south to southeast winds are expected at all
terminals this afternoon. There`s enough confidence to put in a
TEMPO group for strong TSRA at KPEQ and KFST until mid evening.
Scattered to broken mid-high level clouds will persist until the
early morning hours, when increasing Gulf stratus will result in
MVFR to IFR conditions. Skies should lift and become VFR by mid
morning Thursday.

&&

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

Latest WV imagery shows compact mid level circulation now centered
near KPHX translating east. At the surface, Gulf moisture is
holding as far west as a KROW-KCNM-KPEQ line. At this time we
don`t expect much of a translation east, but rather more of a
mixing out to LFCs about 5000 ft AGL by mid afternoon. There is a
subtle indication in WV imagery of a speed max now over southern
Chihuahua/northern Durango. It would not take much for CI, and in
fact latest satellite imagery shows CU building along the eastern
flanks of the Guadalupe and Davis mountain ranges. CAMs are not
much use, probably because CI may occur just about anywhere within
an air mass characterized by MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg and LIs of -9 or
lower. Best guess for CI will be over the eastern flanks of the
Davis Mountains in the next 1-2 hours. Both effective and 0-6km
bulk shear values are a tad bit low for supercells, thus
convective evolution will start off with clumps of multicells,
then as cold pools from these cells merge and propagate east,
short linear segments are suggested. Initially, hail to 2" and
wind gusts to 60 mph will be possible given convection, then the
hail threat should diminish as water-loaded storms begin dumping
respectable cold pools.

How far east and how long are the other questions. Would expect
convection to diminish along with peak sensible heating, but there
is a lot of energy for these storms to dine upon. Storms could
continue through the evening hours, especially with an increasing
LLJ supporting stronger updrafts. Also would not be surprised to
see SPC drop a severe thunderstorm watch box on a good chunk of
MAF`s CWA in the 20-21Z time range. Stay tuned.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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353
FXUS64 KMAF 271149
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
649 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light fog has settled into the Permian Basin and far southeastern
New Mexico with visibilities generally 2-5 miles though patchy VIS
near HOB has been reduced to 1/4SM. Low clouds are increasing so
dense fog is not expected to become widespread. TAF sites along
the Pecos River should remain VFR due to drier air farther west.
TS will develop this afternoon but FST is the only site where
coverage will be enough to justify a TEMPO group.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Active weather pattern continues with heavy rain and severe
thunderstorms in the forecast through this weekend.

A weakening upper trough is making landfall this morning along the S
CA coast. Meanwhile, at the sfc, the dryline has retreated west into
SE NM and the Davis Mountains. Low clouds have also formed within
the moist sector across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.
Expect these low clouds to mix out by afternoon with temperatures
warming into the 80s and 90s. The dryline shouldn`t move much today
as height falls spread across the region in advance of the West
Coast trough. Heating and high moisture values will promote strong
instability (MU CAPE >3500 J/kg) east of the dryline by this
afternoon. Bulk shear will remain weak with values only near 30 kts.
Weak forcing along the dryline should allow a few storms to develop
with severe weather possible. Large hail and damaging winds will be
the main threats. The HRRR, which did very well with convection
yesterday, develops scattered storms this afternoon across the
higher terrain and northeast Permian Basin. Will lean toward this
solution for this afternoon and evening.

The upper trough moves overhead Thursday with increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Convection may be ongoing across parts of
the area during the morning, which will likely affect where storms
develop during later in the day. Adequate deep layer shear along
with steep lapse rates and strong instability should allow for a few
storms to be strong or severe. Again the main threats will be large
hail and damaging winds. Heavy rain will also be a possibility as
PWATs climb over 1 inch.

Weak ridging builds in Friday with drier and much warmer conditions.
This is short-lived though as another upper trough and cold front
affect the region Friday night and Saturday. More severe weather and
heavy rain will be possible with this system. Temperatures really
cool Saturday behind the front with highs well below normal.
Ridging builds in early next week helping to dry the area out and
heat us up to near or slightly above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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133
FXUS64 KMAF 270844
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
344 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Active weather pattern continues with heavy rain and severe
thunderstorms in the forecast through this weekend.

A weakening upper trough is making landfall this morning along the S
CA coast. Meanwhile, at the sfc, the dryline has retreated west into
SE NM and the Davis Mountains. Low clouds have also formed within
the moist sector across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.
Expect these low clouds to mix out by afternoon with temperatures
warming into the 80s and 90s. The dryline shouldn`t move much today
as height falls spread across the region in advance of the West
Coast trough. Heating and high moisture values will promote strong
instability (MU CAPE >3500 J/kg) east of the dryline by this
afternoon. Bulk shear will remain weak with values only near 30 kts.
Weak forcing along the dryline should allow a few storms to develop
with severe weather possible. Large hail and damaging winds will be
the main threats. The HRRR, which did very well with convection
yesterday, develops scattered storms this afternoon across the
higher terrain and northeast Permian Basin. Will lean toward this
solution for this afternoon and evening.

The upper trough moves overhead Thursday with increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Convection may be ongoing across parts of
the area during the morning, which will likely affect where storms
develop during later in the day. Adequate deep layer shear along
with steep lapse rates and strong instability should allow for a few
storms to be strong or severe. Again the main threats will be large
hail and damaging winds. Heavy rain will also be a possibility as
PWATs climb over 1 inch.

Weak ridging builds in Friday with drier and much warmer conditions.
This is short-lived though as another upper trough and cold front
affect the region Friday night and Saturday. More severe weather and
heavy rain will be possible with this system. Temperatures really
cool Saturday behind the front with highs well below normal.
Ridging builds in early next week helping to dry the area out and
heat us up to near or slightly above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 90  69  83  64  /  20  30  50  40
BIG SPRING TX              92  71  86  66  /  20  30  50  50
CARLSBAD NM                93  66  90  60  /  10  30  40  30
DRYDEN TX                  92  74  87  69  /  20  30  50  50
FORT STOCKTON TX           91  71  87  65  /  30  30  50  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          87  59  85  57  /  10  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                   88  68  80  61  /  10  40  50  40
MARFA TX                   90  57  85  53  /  20  40  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    90  70  85  65  /  20  30  50  50
ODESSA TX                  90  69  85  65  /  20  30  50  50
WINK TX                    93  70  88  65  /  20  40  50  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/29

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338
FXUS64 KMAF 270528
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR-IFR CIGs expected to develop in the next few hours for most
TAF sites, lasting through much of the morning then lifting to VFR
by noon. TS will develop along the mountains this afternoon and
move east but coverage will be too widely scattered to include in
the TAFs at this time.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures today are expected to be a little warmer than yesterday
and near normal values for this time of year.  A dryline is present
across the Lower Trans Pecos, eastern Permian Basin, and Western Low
Rolling Plains.  The NAM12 is showing areas in Terrell County with
CAPE values up to 4000 J/Kg of CAPE by 00z today and good bulk shear
values with the best values across the Lower Trans Pecos.  Mid-level
lapse rates will be decent so thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and evening along and east of this dryline.  A few severe
storms will be possible given the above mentioned conditions with
large hail, damaging winds, and brief heavy rain being the main
threats.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible into the
overnight period but do not expect widespread convection.

A dryline is expected to once again develop across the area on
Wednesday.  The NAM12 is showing CAPE values of 4000+ J/Kg across
the Lower Trans Pecos and central/eastern Permian Basin.  Bulk shear
values will not be quite as impressive as today but are still
expected to be sufficient enough for thunderstorms, some of which
may become severe.  A source of upper level lift may be a limiting
factor in storms developing initially during the afternoon, but a
shortwave is expected to move over the higher terrain of West Texas
by Wednesday evening so storm development could increase at this
time.  A surface trough is expected to develop across areas along
and west of the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday afternoon so storms may
initially develop across the Upper Trans Pecos then shift eastward
as upper level lift moves closer to the region.

An upper level trough will be approaching the region Wednesday night
with upper level lift increasing and shortwaves moving over the
CWA.  The dryline will be backed up against the Guadalupe Mountains
by 12z Thursday with CAPE values of 3000+ widespread across the
area.  Bulk shear values will be around 30 kts across portions of
the area but mid-level lapse rates are expected to be around 8
degrees C/km and 500 mb omega values will be increased over the
region Wednesday night/Thursday morning.  The models are showing
convection being widespread across the CWA by Thursday morning.
Severe storms will be possible at this time given the abundant CAPE
and upper-level lift.  The dryline will not have moved much eastward
by Thursday afternoon with its position expected to be across the
Upper Trans Pecos according to the NAM12.  CAPE values will still be
high Thursday afternoon but not as high as they were during the
early morning hours.  Bulk shear values will have increased by the
afternoon and lapse rates will still be good, so severe storms will
once again be possible during the afternoon hours.  Heavy rainfall
may also be a concern on this day given the forecasted model QPF
from the abundance of moisture and lift.  Temperatures on Thursday
are expected to be cooler due to the increase in cloud cloud and
precipitation as well as cooler 850 mb temperatures across the area.

Temperatures are expected to warm back up on Friday as a surface
trough develops across southeast New Mexico and far West Texas.
Thunderstorms will remain possible with a dryline present across the
area.  A cold front will move into the area on Saturday/Saturday
night and precipitation chances will increase ahead of and along the
front.  Temperatures will be cooler Saturday and Sunday behind the
front.  Rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue into Sunday
then chances will decrease as an upper ridge develops over the
region early next week.  Temperatures will warm back up closer to
normal on Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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312
FXUS64 KMAF 262310
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
610 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs
affecting terminals early Wednesday morning. Currently have light
and variable winds at all but MAF where moderate SE winds prevail.
Overnight, expect generally light winds at all but MAF and FST where
SE winds will remain somewhat elevated due to a persistent LLJ
across this area. LL moisture will increase after midnight tonight
with possible IFR cigs affecting MAF and FST around 27/08-09Z,
spreading NW toward INK and HOB by 27/10Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will return to all TAF sites by late morning. Could see some
isolated convection develop Wednesday afternoon but confidence in
location/timing is too low to include mention attm.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures today are expected to be a little warmer than yesterday
and near normal values for this time of year.  A dryline is present
across the Lower Trans Pecos, eastern Permian Basin, and Western Low
Rolling Plains.  The NAM12 is showing areas in Terrell County with
CAPE values up to 4000 J/Kg of CAPE by 00z today and good bulk shear
values with the best values across the Lower Trans Pecos.  Mid-level
lapse rates will be decent so thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and evening along and east of this dryline.  A few severe
storms will be possible given the above mentioned conditions with
large hail, damaging winds, and brief heavy rain being the main
threats.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible into the
overnight period but do not expect widespread convection.

A dryline is expected to once again develop across the area on
Wednesday.  The NAM12 is showing CAPE values of 4000+ J/Kg across
the Lower Trans Pecos and central/eastern Permian Basin.  Bulk shear
values will not be quite as impressive as today but are still
expected to be sufficient enough for thunderstorms, some of which
may become severe.  A source of upper level lift may be a limiting
factor in storms developing initially during the afternoon, but a
shortwave is expected to move over the higher terrain of West Texas
by Wednesday evening so storm development could increase at this
time.  A surface trough is expected to develop across areas along
and west of the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday afternoon so storms may
initially develop across the Upper Trans Pecos then shift eastward
as upper level lift moves closer to the region.

An upper level trough will be approaching the region Wednesday night
with upper level lift increasing and shortwaves moving over the
CWA.  The dryline will be backed up against the Guadalupe Mountains
by 12z Thursday with CAPE values of 3000+ widespread across the
area.  Bulk shear values will be around 30 kts across portions of
the area but mid-level lapse rates are expected to be around 8
degrees C/km and 500 mb omega values will be increased over the
region Wednesday night/Thursday morning.  The models are showing
convection being widespread across the CWA by Thursday morning.
Severe storms will be possible at this time given the abundant CAPE
and upper-level lift.  The dryline will not have moved much eastward
by Thursday afternoon with its position expected to be across the
Upper Trans Pecos according to the NAM12.  CAPE values will still be
high Thursday afternoon but not as high as they were during the
early morning hours.  Bulk shear values will have increased by the
afternoon and lapse rates will still be good, so severe storms will
once again be possible during the afternoon hours.  Heavy rainfall
may also be a concern on this day given the forecasted model QPF
from the abundance of moisture and lift.  Temperatures on Thursday
are expected to be cooler due to the increase in cloud cloud and
precipitation as well as cooler 850 mb temperatures across the area.

Temperatures are expected to warm back up on Friday as a surface
trough develops across southeast New Mexico and far West Texas.
Thunderstorms will remain possible with a dryline present across the
area.  A cold front will move into the area on Saturday/Saturday
night and precipitation chances will increase ahead of and along the
front.  Temperatures will be cooler Saturday and Sunday behind the
front.  Rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue into Sunday
then chances will decrease as an upper ridge develops over the
region early next week.  Temperatures will warm back up closer to
normal on Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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985
FXUS64 KMAF 261942
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
241 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures today are expected to be a little warmer than yesterday
and near normal values for this time of year.  A dryline is present
across the Lower Trans Pecos, eastern Permian Basin, and Western Low
Rolling Plains.  The NAM12 is showing areas in Terrell County with
CAPE values up to 4000 J/Kg of CAPE by 00z today and good bulk shear
values with the best values across the Lower Trans Pecos.  Mid-level
lapse rates will be decent so thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and evening along and east of this dryline.  A few severe
storms will be possible given the above mentioned conditions with
large hail, damaging winds, and brief heavy rain being the main
threats.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible into the
overnight period but do not expect widespread convection.

A dryline is expected to once again develop across the area on
Wednesday.  The NAM12 is showing CAPE values of 4000+ J/Kg across
the Lower Trans Pecos and central/eastern Permian Basin.  Bulk shear
values will not be quite as impressive as today but are still
expected to be sufficient enough for thunderstorms, some of which
may become severe.  A source of upper level lift may be a limiting
factor in storms developing initially during the afternoon, but a
shortwave is expected to move over the higher terrain of West Texas
by Wednesday evening so storm development could increase at this
time.  A surface trough is expected to develop across areas along
and west of the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday afternoon so storms may
initially develop across the Upper Trans Pecos then shift eastward
as upper level lift moves closer to the region.

An upper level trough will be approaching the region Wednesday night
with upper level lift increasing and shortwaves moving over the
CWA.  The dryline will be backed up against the Guadalupe Mountains
by 12z Thursday with CAPE values of 3000+ widespread across the
area.  Bulk shear values will be around 30 kts across portions of
the area but mid-level lapse rates are expected to be around 8
degrees C/km and 500 mb omega values will be increased over the
region Wednesday night/Thursday morning.  The models are showing
convection being widespread across the CWA by Thursday morning.
Severe storms will be possible at this time given the abundant CAPE
and upper-level lift.  The dryline will not have moved much eastward
by Thursday afternoon with its position expected to be across the
Upper Trans Pecos according to the NAM12.  CAPE values will still be
high Thursday afternoon but not as high as they were during the
early morning hours.  Bulk shear values will have increased by the
afternoon and lapse rates will still be good, so severe storms will
once again be possible during the afternoon hours.  Heavy rainfall
may also be a concern on this day given the forecasted model QPF
from the abundance of moisture and lift.  Temperatures on Thursday
are expected to be cooler due to the increase in cloud cloud and
precipitation as well as cooler 850 mb temperatures across the area.

Temperatures are expected to warm back up on Friday as a surface
trough develops across southeast New Mexico and far West Texas.
Thunderstorms will remain possible with a dryline present across the
area.  A cold front will move into the area on Saturday/Saturday
night and precipitation chances will increase ahead of and along the
front.  Temperatures will be cooler Saturday and Sunday behind the
front.  Rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue into Sunday
then chances will decrease as an upper ridge develops over the
region early next week.  Temperatures will warm back up closer to
normal on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 66  89  68  82  /  20  10  30  50
BIG SPRING TX              68  89  69  82  /  20  20  30  50
CARLSBAD NM                59  91  65  91  /   0  20  40  30
DRYDEN TX                  71  90  72  87  /  20  20  30  50
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  93  69  85  /  20  10  30  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          60  87  61  88  /   0  20  30  20
HOBBS NM                   64  89  67  81  /  10  10  40  50
MARFA TX                   50  89  61  83  /  10  20  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  88  69  82  /  20  10  30  50
ODESSA TX                  68  89  69  82  /  20  10  30  50
WINK TX                    67  93  70  87  /  10  10  40  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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602
FXUS64 KMAF 261659
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1159 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals through this
evening.  However, increasing moisture on low level southeasterly
winds will likely result in IFR ceilings forming late tonight.  Have
included these ceilings at all but KCNM after 27/08Z.  Expect VFR
conditions to prevail again after 27/17Z, although thunderstorm
chances may need to be added just beyond this forecast period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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623
FXUS64 KMAF 261124
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions with light winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Surface analysis this morning shows a weak surface low in
southeastern New Mexico extending south into the Davis Mountains.
Westerly mid and upper level flow will mix to the surface with
afternoon heating and push this trough into the central Permian
Basin with isolated thunderstorms developing to the east of this
feature beginning in the late afternoon and reaching maximum
coverage during the early evening. There will be quite a bit of
potential instability today but shear will be marginal for severe
storms.

Wednesday the focus for rain will shift back to the west as
another low digs into the southwestern U.S. pulling moisture back
against the mountains. Convection will develop with the help of
the terrain Wednesday evening then move east and expand in
coverage Thursday with the support of an upper level disturbance
moving northeast out of Mexico. Westerly upper flow Friday will
decrease PoPs but an approaching cold front Saturday will increase
rain chances once again. It is currently expected to move into the
Permian Basin Saturday night, which is when the PoPs are greatest,
but convective outflow could push this front through sooner and we
may end up seeing most of the rain Saturday...then decreasing
overnight. Clouds and rain will keep temps at or below normal the
next week ensuring that May will finish below normal in average
temperature for the first time in 5 years.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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386
FXUS64 KMAF 260920
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
420 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Surface analysis this morning shows a weak surface low in
southeastern New Mexico extending south into the Davis Mountains.
Westerly mid and upper level flow will mix to the surface with
afternoon heating and push this trough into the central Permian
Basin with isolated thunderstorms developing to the east of this
feature beginning in the late afternoon and reaching maximum
coverage during the early evening. There will be quite a bit of
potential instability today but shear will be marginal for severe
storms.

Wednesday the focus for rain will shift back to the west as
another low digs into the southwestern U.S. pulling moisture back
against the mountains. Convection will develop with the help of
the terrain Wednesday evening then move east and expand in
coverage Thursday with the support of an upper level disturbance
moving northeast out of Mexico. Westerly upper flow Friday will
decrease PoPs but an approaching cold front Saturday will increase
rain chances once again. It is currently expected to move into the
Permian Basin Saturday night, which is when the PoPs are greatest,
but convective outflow could push this front through sooner and we
may end up seeing most of the rain Saturday...then decreasing
overnight. Clouds and rain will keep temps at or below normal the
next week ensuring that May will finish below normal in average
temperature for the first time in 5 years.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 87  66  90  68  /   0  10  10  30
BIG SPRING TX              88  68  89  69  /  10  10  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                88  59  93  65  /   0   0  10  40
DRYDEN TX                  92  71  91  71  /  10  20  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           90  67  93  70  /  10  10  10  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          82  62  87  62  /   0   0  10  30
HOBBS NM                   85  62  89  66  /   0   0  10  40
MARFA TX                   85  50  88  61  /   0   0  10  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    89  68  90  69  /  10  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                  89  68  90  69  /  10  10  10  30
WINK TX                    91  66  95  70  /   0   0  10  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/10

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158
FXUS64 KMAF 260525
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1225 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will continue into Tuesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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995
FXUS64 KMAF 260007
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
707 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with mostly clear skies. A few virga showers possible into
the evening producing erratic gusts. Could see some morning
stratus over Eastern Permian Basin but should stay east of MAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A potent shortwave trough responsible for the thunderstorms this
morning has ejected northeastward into Oklahoma, with thunderstorms
having moved well east of the area.  Expect fairly quiet weather
through Tuesday under weak westerly flow aloft with temperatures
warming above normal.  However, another shortwave trough will move
ashore over California Wednesday with the flow aloft over the region
becoming southwesterly.  There are some hints of a shortwave trough
translating over the region Wednesday afternoon, and with near to
above normal temperatures, thunderstorms will be possible along a
sharpening dryline.  For now, will include a slight chance of
storms, and a low order chance Wednesday night mainly over the
western half of the CWA, due to model differences with the timing
and strength of the trough.  If storms develop, some could be severe
as instability, shear and lapse rates will be favorable for strong,
organized convection.

Barring a widespread rain event Wednesday, convection could flourish
over all of southeast New Mexico and west Texas Thursday as the base
of the upper trough begins to move over the area.  Will carry the
highest chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night since
the best dynamics will be available then.  Convective parameters
will be very favorable for severe thunderstorm development, so will
include the potential for severe thunderstorms on both Wednesday and
Thursday in the Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO).  Although the
base of the ua trough will swing by Thursday night, a pair of
shortwave troughs are progged to drop southeastward around the
southern periphery of the slow moving ua trough over the
southern/central U.S. Plains.  Since we will still be quite warm
both Friday and Saturday, and a dryline will remain over the
region, there will be a chance of scattered thunderstorms each
day.  Conditions appear favorable for more severe thunderstorms,
so will keep a mention in the HWO.

An upper ridge is then progged to build over Mexico, if not west
Texas, late this weekend and keep the region under weak northwest
flow aloft.  So far this Spring, models have been indicating
expansion of an upper ridge several days in advance many times,
but it usually ends up being another upper trough.  Will keep PoPs
to a dull roar after Saturday until we see which of these upper
features comes about.  There some indications a cold front will move
south into the area Friday/Saturday with some cooling for locations
along and north of Interstate 20.  If the cooler temperatures do
make it this far south, would expect readings to rebound to above
normal by Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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881
FXUS64 KMAF 251915
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
215 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A potent shortwave trough responsible for the thunderstorms this
morning has ejected northeastward into Oklahoma, with thunderstorms
having moved well east of the area.  Expect fairly quiet weather
through Tuesday under weak westerly flow aloft with temperatures
warming above normal.  However, another shortwave trough will move
ashore over California Wednesday with the flow aloft over the region
becoming southwesterly.  There are some hints of a shortwave trough
translating over the region Wednesday afternoon, and with near to
above normal temperatures, thunderstorms will be possible along a
sharpening dryline.  For now, will include a slight chance of
storms, and a low order chance Wednesday night mainly over the
western half of the CWA, due to model differences with the timing
and strength of the trough.  If storms develop, some could be severe
as instability, shear and lapse rates will be favorable for strong,
organized convection.

Barring a widespread rain event Wednesday, convection could flourish
over all of southeast New Mexico and west Texas Thursday as the base
of the upper trough begins to move over the area.  Will carry the
highest chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night since
the best dynamics will be available then.  Convective parameters
will be very favorable for severe thunderstorm development, so will
include the potential for severe thunderstorms on both Wednesday and
Thursday in the Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO).  Although the
base of the ua trough will swing by Thursday night, a pair of
shortwave troughs are progged to drop southeastward around the
southern periphery of the slow moving ua trough over the
southern/central U.S. Plains.  Since we will still be quite warm
both Friday and Saturday, and a dryline will remain over the
region, there will be a chance of scattered thunderstorms each
day.  Conditions appear favorable for more severe thunderstorms,
so will keep a mention in the HWO.

An upper ridge is then progged to build over Mexico, if not west
Texas, late this weekend and keep the region under weak northwest
flow aloft.  So far this Spring, models have been indicating
expansion of an upper ridge several days in advance many times,
but it usually ends up being another upper trough.  Will keep PoPs
to a dull roar after Saturday until we see which of these upper
features comes about.  There some indications a cold front will move
south into the area Friday/Saturday with some cooling for locations
along and north of Interstate 20.  If the cooler temperatures do
make it this far south, would expect readings to rebound to above
normal by Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 58  90  64  90  /   0   0  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              62  92  67  92  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  91  59  93  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  63  95  71  93  /   0  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  91  66  91  /   0   0  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  84  61  86  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   53  87  61  88  /   0   0  10  20
MARFA TX                   43  87  53  90  /   0   0   0  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  92  66  91  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  61  91  67  90  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                    57  94  64  95  /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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349
FXUS64 KMAF 251712
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will
become elevated out of the west this afternoon with some gusts.
Winds will decrease after sunset and become more southerly to
southwesterly. Skies are expected to be mostly clear except for a
few mid to high level clouds that will come in from the west.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015/

UPDATE...

Update to cancel the rest of Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number
209.

DISCUSSION...

Quite the complex of storms have moved east of the region, so have
updated the forecast to cancel the rest of the Severe
Thunderstorms Watch, and lower PoPs through the rest of the day.
Aside from tweaking sky conditions and dewpoints, raised
temperatures a little over the western half of the area. An
updated forecast will follow shortly.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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551
FXUS64 KMAF 251551
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1051 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.UPDATE...

Update to cancel the rest of Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number
209.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Quite the complex of storms have moved east of the region, so have
updated the forecast to cancel the rest of the Severe
Thunderstorms Watch, and lower PoPs through the rest of the day.
Aside from tweaking sky conditions and dewpoints, raised
temperatures a little over the western half of the area. An
updated forecast will follow shortly.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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194
FXUS64 KMAF 251148
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
648 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.UPDATE...

Update to include Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 209.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have blossomed over the Permian Basin this morning.
Due to a compact, but strong shortwave trough moving over the
area, decent elevated instability and steep mid level lapse rates,
some of the storms are producing large hail.  Think storms will
move rapidly off to the northeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CDT Monday...Complicated forecast for
this morning into the early aftn. Water vapor imagery is indc a
potent shortwave in Northern Chihuahua rounding the base of the
trough in the southern Rockies. IR imagery is indc a baroclinic
leaf structure with rapidly cooling cloud tops in Southwest TX.
Convection has developed in the Plains north and east of the Davis
Mtns and in the Western and Southern Permian Basin. While
initially having a hard time getting going has now started to
intensify. Even though there is decent low level CIN...latest
Mesoscale Analysis is indc good MLCAPE and very steep mid level
lapse rates of 8C/KM. KMAF VAD Profile is indc a 40+ kt low level
southerly jet as well. The HRRR has been very consistent in
developing strong convection and moving it into the Permian Basin
and the Low Rolling Plains this morning. The HRRR is indc very
impressive rain rates along with training cells. SPC has the
Permian Basin and Low Rolling Plains in a slight risk with the
main severe threat large hail. This will continue to be monitored
thru the morning hours.

After passage of the shortwave low amplitude ridging will move
over the Southern Plains. This will bring dry weather tonight
thru Tuesday night. With H85 temps increasing along with downslope
low level winds temps should reach into the 90s across the Plains
with 80s in the mtns.

Yet another mid/upper low...currently near 28/143...will open into
a trough and will move in the subtropical jet to near northern
Baja by Wed morning. This will turn the mid/upper flow to
southwest and will allow low level moisture to stream into the CWA
from the Gulf of Mexico. Impulses moving in the flow aloft...
combined with the low level moist flow out of the Gulf of Mexico
will bring at least a chance of convection across most of the CWA
from Wednesday right thru next weekend as our wet pattern
continues.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  59  90  63  /  30   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              86  63  91  68  /  40  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                86  53  91  57  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  93  63  93  71  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  60  93  66  /  20   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  57  82  60  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   82  55  88  60  /  10  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   78  43  85  52  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  59  92  66  /  30  10   0  10
ODESSA TX                  86  61  92  66  /  30  10   0  10
WINK TX                    87  57  95  65  /  20   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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398
FXUS64 KMAF 251147
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
647 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers/thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across far
southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin this morning, thus have
included TEMPOs for KHOB, KMAF, and KINK through mid/late morning.
Brief reductions in visibility to MVFR are expected in heavy rain
if any storms pass over the terminals. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions to prevail area-wide from this afternoon onward, with
southwest winds gusting up to around 20kt. Gusts will diminish
after sunset this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CDT Monday...Complicated forecast for
this morning into the early aftn. Water vapor imagery is indc a
potent shortwave in Northern Chihuahua rounding the base of the
trough in the southern Rockies. IR imagery is indc a baroclinic
leaf structure with rapidly cooling cloud tops in Southwest TX.
Convection has developed in the Plains north and east of the Davis
Mtns and in the Western and Southern Permian Basin. While
initially having a hard time getting going has now started to
intensify. Even though there is decent low level CIN...latest
Mesoscale Analysis is indc good MLCAPE and very steep mid level
lapse rates of 8C/KM. KMAF VAD Profile is indc a 40+ kt low level
southerly jet as well. The HRRR has been very consistent in
developing strong convection and moving it into the Permian Basin
and the Low Rolling Plains this morning. The HRRR is indc very
impressive rain rates along with training cells. SPC has the
Permian Basin and Low Rolling Plains in a slight risk with the
main severe threat large hail. This will continue to be monitored
thru the morning hours.

After passage of the shortwave low amplitude ridging will move
over the Southern Plains. This will bring dry weather tonight
thru Tuesday night. With H85 temps increasing along with downslope
low level winds temps should reach into the 90s across the Plains
with 80s in the mtns.

Yet another mid/upper low...currently near 28/143...will open into
a trough and will move in the subtropical jet to near northern
Baja by Wed morning. This will turn the mid/upper flow to
southwest and will allow low level moisture to stream into the CWA
from the Gulf of Mexico. Impulses moving in the flow aloft...
combined with the low level moist flow out of the Gulf of Mexico
will bring at least a chance of convection across most of the CWA
from Wednesday right thru next weekend as our wet pattern
continues.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/33

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093
FXUS64 KMAF 250941
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
441 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CDT Monday...Complicated forecast for
this morning into the early aftn. Water vapor imagery is indc a
potent shortwave in Northern Chihuahua rounding the base of the
trough in the southern Rockies. IR imagery is indc a baroclinic
leaf structure with rapidly cooling cloud tops in Southwest TX.
Convection has developed in the Plains north and east of the Davis
Mtns and in the Western and Southern Permian Basin. While
initially having a hard time getting going has now started to
intensify. Even though there is decent low level CIN...latest
Mesoscale Analysis is indc good MLCAPE and very steep mid level
lapse rates of 8C/KM. KMAF VAD Profile is indc a 40+ kt low level
southerly jet as well. The HRRR has been very consistent in
developing strong convection and moving it into the Permian Basin
and the Low Rolling Plains this morning. The HRRR is indc very
impressive rain rates along with training cells. SPC has the
Permian Basin and Low Rolling Plains in a slight risk with the
main severe threat large hail. This will continue to be monitored
thru the morning hours.

After passage of the shortwave low amplitude ridging will move
over the Southern Plains. This will bring dry weather tonight
thru Tuesday night. With H85 temps increasing along with downslope
low level winds temps should reach into the 90s across the Plains
with 80s in the mtns.

Yet another mid/upper low...currently near 28/143...will open into
a trough and will move in the subtropical jet to near northern
Baja by Wed morning. This will turn the mid/upper flow to
southwest and will allow low level moisture to stream into the CWA
from the Gulf of Mexico. Impulses moving in the flow aloft...
combined with the low level moist flow out of the Gulf of Mexico
will bring at least a chance of convection across most of the CWA
from Wednesday right thru next weekend as our wet pattern
continues.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  59  90  63  /  30   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              86  63  91  68  /  40  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                86  53  91  57  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  93  63  93  71  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  60  93  66  /  20   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  57  82  60  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   82  55  88  60  /  10  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   78  43  85  52  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  59  92  66  /  30  10   0  10
ODESSA TX                  86  61  92  66  /  30  10   0  10
WINK TX                    87  57  95  65  /  20   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/33

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534
FXUS64 KMAF 250516
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1216 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...See 06Z Aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...The dryline is continuing to retreat northwest with
southeast winds now at KMAF. Expect VFR conditions for the next
several hours...with convection possible starting from the
southwest around 09-10Z...continuing into the morning hours. TAFs
and AFD will be updated as needed.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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454
FXUS64 KMAF 242341
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
641 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The 00Z aviation discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with diminishing winds prevail across the area this
evening. Expect VFR conditions to continue through tomorrow
morning with winds backing to southeast shortly after 00Z at most
sites this evening. There is a 20 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms after midnight tonight, mainly east of a Midland to
Fort Stockton line. Have not mentioned these overnight as coverage
is expected to be fairly limited. As an upper level wave moves
through tonight into tomorrow, the dryline will again push east,
turning winds back to the west/northwest with gusts between 15
and 20 knots by late tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX/

DISCUSSION...

Dryline has pushed east to near a Snyder to Sterling City to Ozona
line as of 3 PM, having cleared all of the Trans Pecos and most of
the Permian Basin late this afternoon. We are seeing a few cu
going up across Scurry and Mitchell counties and a few isolated
thunderstorms can not be ruled out for those areas, as well as
slightly farther west as the dryline begins to retreat this
evening. Better chance of storms will arrive late tonight,
probably closer to sunrise as a potent shortwave over Southern
California approaches the area. Both the TTU WRF and the GFS
developed convection very near or just east of Midland and expand
it across the eastern Permian Basin between 10Z and 15Z. Have
added PoPs for tonight and Monday morning across about the eastern
third of the area.

Dry 48 hours after that, but the same basic upper level pattern
holds. Large scale upper level trough axis across the Western US,
with a series of shortwaves rotating through. Lift from the next
system will begin to arrive Wednesday afternoon and expand across
much of the area for Wednesday Night through Friday. Models are very
aggressive with rain chances, but tried not to go quite that high
yet. However, given the models are holding a much sharper trough
axis across the Southern Rockies through the weekend, hard not to
keep some mention of showers and storms over a wide area for an
extended period of time.

Temperatures for the upcoming week are pretty unremarkable.
Warmest days will be on the dry days, where temperatures will
climb well into the 80s. Coolest days will be the days with the
higher rain chances when cloud cover will be more abundant.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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678
FXUS64 KMAF 242042
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
342 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Dryline has pushed east to near a Snyder to Sterling City to Ozona
line as of 3 PM, having cleared all of the Trans Pecos and most of
the Permian Basin late this afternoon. We are seeing a few cu
going up across Scurry and Mitchell counties and a few isolated
thunderstorms can not be ruled out for those areas, as well as
slightly farther west as the dryline begins to retreat this
evening. Better chance of storms will arrive late tonight,
probably closer to sunrise as a potent shortwave over Southern
California approaches the area. Both the TTU WRF and the GFS
developed convection very near or just east of Midland and expand
it across the eastern Permian Basin between 10Z and 15Z. Have
added PoPs for tonight and Monday morning across about the eastern
third of the area.

Dry 48 hours after that, but the same basic upper level pattern
holds. Large scale upper level trough axis across the Western US,
with a series of shortwaves rotating through. Lift from the next
system will begin to arrive Wednesday afternoon and expand across
much of the area for Wednesday Night through Friday. Models are very
aggressive with rain chances, but tried not to go quite that high
yet. However, given the models are holding a much sharper trough
axis across the Southern Rockies through the weekend, hard not to
keep some mention of showers and storms over a wide area for an
extended period of time.

Temperatures for the upcoming week are pretty unremarkable.
Warmest days will be on the dry days, where temperatures will
climb well into the 80s. Coolest days will be the days with the
higher rain chances when cloud cover will be more abundant.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 53  82  59  88  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              60  84  61  89  /  20  30  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                54  85  51  90  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  64  88  66  93  /  20  30  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  85  60  91  /  20  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  71  56  76  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  81  54  86  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   51  76  45  82  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  84  60  89  /  20  20  10   0
ODESSA TX                  56  84  61  89  /  10  20  10   0
WINK TX                    57  85  57  92  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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248
FXUS64 KMAF 241727
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1227 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the Permian Basin for the
remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours. Gusty west
winds will subside after sunset. Next storm system will approach
late tonight and may bring convection to portions of the area
before 12Z, but looks to remain east of any of the terminals for
now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected as dry southwest winds develop this
morning. Wind gusts to 20 KTS possible mid morning through sunset.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX/

DISCUSSION...

A few thunderstorms continue east of a Crane to Big Spring line
early this morning. Expect these storms to head east out of the
area by mid morning. Will allow the Flash Flood Watch to expire at
7 am...as the heavy rain threat should be over for today. The
upper shortwave trough responsible for storms yesterday should
head east out of the area today...with warmer temperatures
expected. Have continued with isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening...but not expecting any significant
rainfall. Could see some breezy conditions for the afternoon,
especially in higher elevations.

Another shortwave trough will approach the area on Monday as a
dryline sharpens over the area. Will see scattered thunderstorms
return to eastern areas Monday afternoon and evening...with a few
severe storms possible. Weak ridging aloft for Tuesday and
Wednesday with more seasonal temperatures, before another trough
heads in by mid to late week. Will continue with a chance of rain
and thunderstorms for mid to late week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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855
FXUS64 KMAF 241150
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
650 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015


.DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected as dry southwest winds develop this
morning. Wind gusts to 20 KTS possible mid morning through sunset.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX/

DISCUSSION...

A few thunderstorms continue east of a Crane to Big Spring line
early this morning. Expect these storms to head east out of the
area by mid morning. Will allow the Flash Flood Watch to expire at
7 am...as the heavy rain threat should be over for today. The
upper shortwave trough responsible for storms yesterday should
head east out of the area today...with warmer temperatures
expected. Have continued with isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening...but not expecting any significant
rainfall. Could see some breezy conditions for the afternoon,
especially in higher elevations.

Another shortwave trough will approach the area on Monday as a
dryline sharpens over the area. Will see scattered thunderstorms
return to eastern areas Monday afternoon and evening...with a few
severe storms possible. Weak ridging aloft for Tuesday and
Wednesday with more seasonal temperatures, before another trough
heads in by mid to late week. Will continue with a chance of rain
and thunderstorms for mid to late week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

99

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376
FXUS64 KMAF 241007
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
507 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A few thunderstorms continue east of a Crane to Big Spring line
early this morning. Expect these storms to head east out of the
area by mid morning. Will allow the Flash Flood Watch to expire at
7 am...as the heavy rain threat should be over for today. The
upper shortwave trough responsible for storms yesterday should
head east out of the area today...with warmer temperatures
expected. Have continued with isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening...but not expecting any significant
rainfall. Could see some breezy conditions for the afternoon,
especially in higher elevations.

Another shortwave trough will approach the area on Monday as a
dryline sharpens over the area. Will see scattered thunderstorms
return to eastern areas Monday afternoon and evening...with a few
severe storms possible. Weak ridging aloft for Tuesday and
Wednesday with more seasonal temperatures, before another trough
heads in by mid to late week. Will continue with a chance of rain
and thunderstorms for mid to late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 83  56  85  59  /  10  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              86  62  86  61  /  20  10  30  10
CARLSBAD NM                86  53  86  54  /   0   0  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  91  65  90  66  /  10  10  30  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           88  59  88  60  /  10  10  20   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  55  80  59  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  51  82  53  /  10   0  10   0
MARFA TX                   80  43  82  45  /  10   0  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  61  87  60  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  85  61  86  61  /  10  10  20  10
WINK TX                    88  55  89  57  /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

99/99

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955
FXUS64 KMAF 240641
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
141 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few showers/thunderstorms continue across southwest Texas
tonight, and could impact KFST within the first couple of hours of
the TAF period, resulting in brief reductions in visibility due to
heavy rainfall. The storms look to remain south of other TAF sites
tonight. One other concern is that MVFR fog/low ceiling
development, mainly affecting KMAF, KINK, and KHOB late tonight
and early Sunday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail across
all TAF sites after 12Z Sunday, with winds veering to the
southwest. Breezy conditions are expected through the afternoon,
with some gusts to around 20 kt possible, though gusts will
rapidly diminish after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast.

DISCUSSION...
Updated zones/grids as Tornado Watch has expired. A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect tonight with redevelopment of rain
possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will continue to move east/northeastward over west
Texas this evening, while southeast New Mexico will likely stay
dry.  It appears KMAF may be the only terminal affected by these
storms through perhaps 24/02Z. Thereafter, expect VFR conditions
to prevail, except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings and
visibility in fog at KHOB, KMAF and possibly KINK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Update for Tornado Watch number 196 until 24/02Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have developed over the Big Bend region this morning,
with additional storms beginning to form in and near the Davis
Mountains early this afternoon. Some of these storms are expected
to become severe, in addition to producing locally heavy rainfall.
Later this afternoon and tonight, expect thunderstorms to become
more widespread, especially over the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin
and into the Western Low Rolling Plains and Lower Trans Pecos.
Severe storms will be possible in these areas, but the threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be most pronounced in these
areas.

A large upper low will gradually translate northeastward into
Colorado overnight while a shortwave trough at the base of this
upper low moves over the region.  Height falls associated with the
upper low/southern shortwave trough will serve to keep low level
moisture over west Texas through tonight, and along with appreciable
mid and upper level moisture keep PWats at 1-1.5 inches, or 1-2
standard deviations above normal.  As synoptic scale lift increases
over the area later this afternoon/tonight, the RRQ of an upper jet
will provide ventilation for convection which should allow
thunderstorms to flourish along and east of a surface trough/dryline
as it moves east over the area tonight.  SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
will provide fuel for thunderstorm development, while 0 to 6Km shear
of 40-50Kt and marginal mid level lapse rates near 7 C/Km will
likely yield storms producing large hail, damaging winds, a tornado
or two, and heavy rainfall.  The severe threat will continue after
sunset, thanks in part to a low level jet increasing over the region
along with favorable divergence aloft.  These features will also
enhance the threat of heavy rainfall into the late night hours.  A
secondary round of convection, or training of cells may also occur,
especially over the eastern most counties of the forecast area.
Therefore, will extend the current Flash Flood Watch (FFA) until
24/12Z.  The converse is expected for the western most counties
included in the FFA, namely Gaines, Andrews, Winkler and Ward.
Think convection will be too sparse this afternoon and evening for
widespread heavy rainfall, so will trim these counties from the
watch.

After the shortwave trough moves by early Sunday morning, think
Sunday will be fairly quiescent, but just a bit breezy with a
drying southwesterly winds and temperatures rising to near normal.
However, a shortwave trough rounding the back and southern side of
the departing upper low will head toward the region, with
height/surface pressure falls drawing moisture back into the area
and a surface trough/dryline sharpening over the area on Monday.
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly over the
eastern half of the CWA.  Some of these storms could be strong, if
not severe, as instability, shear and lapse rates will be
favorable.  But the timing of the shortwave trough may be such that
convection starts early in the day, which could temper the severity
of storms.  Fairly weak westerly flow aloft, or weak upper ridging,
will then prevail over the region Tuesday into Wednesday which
portends dry and seasonably warm temperatures.  However, another
upper trough will take shape over the western ConUS, head east and
give the region another chance of rain from Wednesday night through
Friday.  Temperatures look to be seasonably warm during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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840
FXUS64 KMAF 240231
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
931 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated zones/grids as Tornado Watch has expired. A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect tonight with redevelopment of rain
possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will continue to move east/northeastward over west
Texas this evening, while southeast New Mexico will likely stay
dry.  It appears KMAF may be the only terminal affected by these
storms through perhaps 24/02Z. Thereafter, expect VFR conditions
to prevail, except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings and
visibility in fog at KHOB, KMAF and possibly KINK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Update for Tornado Watch number 196 until 24/02Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have developed over the Big Bend region this morning,
with additional storms beginning to form in and near the Davis
Mountains early this afternoon. Some of these storms are expected
to become severe, in addition to producing locally heavy rainfall.
Later this afternoon and tonight, expect thunderstorms to become
more widespread, especially over the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin
and into the Western Low Rolling Plains and Lower Trans Pecos.
Severe storms will be possible in these areas, but the threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be most pronounced in these
areas.

A large upper low will gradually translate northeastward into
Colorado overnight while a shortwave trough at the base of this
upper low moves over the region.  Height falls associated with the
upper low/southern shortwave trough will serve to keep low level
moisture over west Texas through tonight, and along with appreciable
mid and upper level moisture keep PWats at 1-1.5 inches, or 1-2
standard deviations above normal.  As synoptic scale lift increases
over the area later this afternoon/tonight, the RRQ of an upper jet
will provide ventilation for convection which should allow
thunderstorms to flourish along and east of a surface trough/dryline
as it moves east over the area tonight.  SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
will provide fuel for thunderstorm development, while 0 to 6Km shear
of 40-50Kt and marginal mid level lapse rates near 7 C/Km will
likely yield storms producing large hail, damaging winds, a tornado
or two, and heavy rainfall.  The severe threat will continue after
sunset, thanks in part to a low level jet increasing over the region
along with favorable divergence aloft.  These features will also
enhance the threat of heavy rainfall into the late night hours.  A
secondary round of convection, or training of cells may also occur,
especially over the eastern most counties of the forecast area.
Therefore, will extend the current Flash Flood Watch (FFA) until
24/12Z.  The converse is expected for the western most counties
included in the FFA, namely Gaines, Andrews, Winkler and Ward.
Think convection will be too sparse this afternoon and evening for
widespread heavy rainfall, so will trim these counties from the
watch.

After the shortwave trough moves by early Sunday morning, think
Sunday will be fairly quiescent, but just a bit breezy with a
drying southwesterly winds and temperatures rising to near normal.
However, a shortwave trough rounding the back and southern side of
the departing upper low will head toward the region, with
height/surface pressure falls drawing moisture back into the area
and a surface trough/dryline sharpening over the area on Monday.
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly over the
eastern half of the CWA.  Some of these storms could be strong, if
not severe, as instability, shear and lapse rates will be
favorable.  But the timing of the shortwave trough may be such that
convection starts early in the day, which could temper the severity
of storms.  Fairly weak westerly flow aloft, or weak upper ridging,
will then prevail over the region Tuesday into Wednesday which
portends dry and seasonably warm temperatures.  However, another
upper trough will take shape over the western ConUS, head east and
give the region another chance of rain from Wednesday night through
Friday.  Temperatures look to be seasonably warm during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  83  56  85  /  50  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              61  86  62  86  /  60  20  10  40
CARLSBAD NM                50  86  53  86  /  20   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  63  91  65  90  /  60  10  10  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  88  59  88  /  50  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  77  55  80  /  20   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   53  80  51  82  /  30  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   47  80  43  82  /  30   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    62  86  61  87  /  50  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                  62  85  61  86  /  50  10  10  20
WINK TX                    58  88  55  89  /  40  10   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

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832
FXUS64 KMAF 232314
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
614 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will continue to move east/northeastward over west
Texas this evening, while southeast New Mexico will likely stay
dry.  It appears KMAF may be the only terminal affected by these
storms through perhaps 24/02Z. Thereafter, expect VFR conditions
to prevail, except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings and
visibility in fog at KHOB, KMAF and possibly KINK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Update for Tornado Watch number 196 until 24/02Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have developed over the Big Bend region this morning,
with additional storms beginning to form in and near the Davis
Mountains early this afternoon. Some of these storms are expected
to become severe, in addition to producing locally heavy rainfall.
Later this afternoon and tonight, expect thunderstorms to become
more widespread, especially over the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin
and into the Western Low Rolling Plains and Lower Trans Pecos.
Severe storms will be possible in these areas, but the threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be most pronounced in these
areas.

A large upper low will gradually translate northeastward into
Colorado overnight while a shortwave trough at the base of this
upper low moves over the region.  Height falls associated with the
upper low/southern shortwave trough will serve to keep low level
moisture over west Texas through tonight, and along with appreciable
mid and upper level moisture keep PWats at 1-1.5 inches, or 1-2
standard deviations above normal.  As synoptic scale lift increases
over the area later this afternoon/tonight, the RRQ of an upper jet
will provide ventilation for convection which should allow
thunderstorms to flourish along and east of a surface trough/dryline
as it moves east over the area tonight.  SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
will provide fuel for thunderstorm development, while 0 to 6Km shear
of 40-50Kt and marginal mid level lapse rates near 7 C/Km will
likely yield storms producing large hail, damaging winds, a tornado
or two, and heavy rainfall.  The severe threat will continue after
sunset, thanks in part to a low level jet increasing over the region
along with favorable divergence aloft.  These features will also
enhance the threat of heavy rainfall into the late night hours.  A
secondary round of convection, or training of cells may also occur,
especially over the eastern most counties of the forecast area.
Therefore, will extend the current Flash Flood Watch (FFA) until
24/12Z.  The converse is expected for the western most counties
included in the FFA, namely Gaines, Andrews, Winkler and Ward.
Think convection will be too sparse this afternoon and evening for
widespread heavy rainfall, so will trim these counties from the
watch.

After the shortwave trough moves by early Sunday morning, think
Sunday will be fairly quiescent, but just a bit breezy with a
drying southwesterly winds and temperatures rising to near normal.
However, a shortwave trough rounding the back and southern side of
the departing upper low will head toward the region, with
height/surface pressure falls drawing moisture back into the area
and a surface trough/dryline sharpening over the area on Monday.
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly over the
eastern half of the CWA.  Some of these storms could be strong, if
not severe, as instability, shear and lapse rates will be
favorable.  But the timing of the shortwave trough may be such that
convection starts early in the day, which could temper the severity
of storms.  Fairly weak westerly flow aloft, or weak upper ridging,
will then prevail over the region Tuesday into Wednesday which
portends dry and seasonably warm temperatures.  However, another
upper trough will take shape over the western ConUS, head east and
give the region another chance of rain from Wednesday night through
Friday.  Temperatures look to be seasonably warm during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

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614
FXUS64 KMAF 232007
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
307 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.UPDATE...

Update for Tornado Watch number 196 until 24/02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have developed over the Big Bend region this morning,
with additional storms beginning to form in and near the Davis
Mountains early this afternoon. Some of these storms are expected
to become severe, in addition to producing locally heavy rainfall.
Later this afternoon and tonight, expect thunderstorms to become
more widespread, especially over the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin
and into the Western Low Rolling Plains and Lower Trans Pecos.
Severe storms will be possible in these areas, but the threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be most pronounced in these
areas.

A large upper low will gradually translate northeastward into
Colorado overnight while a shortwave trough at the base of this
upper low moves over the region.  Height falls associated with the
upper low/southern shortwave trough will serve to keep low level
moisture over west Texas through tonight, and along with appreciable
mid and upper level moisture keep PWats at 1-1.5 inches, or 1-2
standard deviations above normal.  As synoptic scale lift increases
over the area later this afternoon/tonight, the RRQ of an upper jet
will provide ventilation for convection which should allow
thunderstorms to flourish along and east of a surface trough/dryline
as it moves east over the area tonight.  SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
will provide fuel for thunderstorm development, while 0 to 6Km shear
of 40-50Kt and marginal mid level lapse rates near 7 C/Km will
likely yield storms producing large hail, damaging winds, a tornado
or two, and heavy rainfall.  The severe threat will continue after
sunset, thanks in part to a low level jet increasing over the region
along with favorable divergence aloft.  These features will also
enhance the threat of heavy rainfall into the late night hours.  A
secondary round of convection, or training of cells may also occur,
especially over the eastern most counties of the forecast area.
Therefore, will extend the current Flash Flood Watch (FFA) until
24/12Z.  The converse is expected for the western most counties
included in the FFA, namely Gaines, Andrews, Winkler and Ward.
Think convection will be too sparse this afternoon and evening for
widespread heavy rainfall, so will trim these counties from the
watch.

After the shortwave trough moves by early Sunday morning, think
Sunday will be fairly quiescent, but just a bit breezy with a
drying southwesterly winds and temperatures rising to near normal.
However, a shortwave trough rounding the back and southern side of
the departing upper low will head toward the region, with
height/surface pressure falls drawing moisture back into the area
and a surface trough/dryline sharpening over the area on Monday.
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly over the
eastern half of the CWA.  Some of these storms could be strong, if
not severe, as instability, shear and lapse rates will be
favorable.  But the timing of the shortwave trough may be such that
convection starts early in the day, which could temper the severity
of storms.  Fairly weak westerly flow aloft, or weak upper ridging,
will then prevail over the region Tuesday into Wednesday which
portends dry and seasonably warm temperatures.  However, another
upper trough will take shape over the western ConUS, head east and
give the region another chance of rain from Wednesday night through
Friday.  Temperatures look to be seasonably warm during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  83  56  85  /  50  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              61  86  62  86  /  70  20  10  40
CARLSBAD NM                50  86  53  86  /  20   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  63  91  65  90  /  60  10  10  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  88  59  88  /  50  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  77  55  80  /  20   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   53  80  51  82  /  30  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   47  80  43  82  /  30   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    62  86  61  87  /  50  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                  62  85  61  86  /  50  10  10  20
WINK TX                    58  88  55  89  /  40  10   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

99/99

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057
FXUS64 KMAF 231809
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
109 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have developed over the Big Bend region this morning,
with additional storms beginning to form in and near the Davis
Mountains early this afternoon. Some of these storms are expected
to become severe, in addition to producing locally heavy rainfall.
Later this afternoon and tonight, expect thunderstorms to become
more widespread, especially over the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin
and into the Western Low Rolling Plains and Lower Trans Pecos.
Severe storms will be possible in these areas, but the threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be most pronounced in these
areas.

A large upper low will gradually translate northeastward into
Colorado overnight while a shortwave trough at the base of this
upper low moves over the region.  Height falls associated with the
upper low/southern shortwave trough will serve to keep low level
moisture over west Texas through tonight, and along with appreciable
mid and upper level moisture keep PWats at 1-1.5 inches, or 1-2
standard deviations above normal.  As synoptic scale lift increases
over the area later this afternoon/tonight, the RRQ of an upper jet
will provide ventilation for convection which should allow
thunderstorms to flourish along and east of a surface trough/dryline
as it moves east over the area tonight.  SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
will provide fuel for thunderstorm development, while 0 to 6Km shear
of 40-50Kt and marginal mid level lapse rates near 7 C/Km will
likely yield storms producing large hail, damaging winds, a tornado
or two, and heavy rainfall.  The severe threat will continue after
sunset, thanks in part to a low level jet increasing over the region
along with favorable divergence aloft.  These features will also
enhance the threat of heavy rainfall into the late night hours.  A
secondary round of convection, or training of cells may also occur,
especially over the eastern most counties of the forecast area.
Therefore, will extend the current Flash Flood Watch (FFA) until
24/12Z.  The converse is expected for the western most counties
included in the FFA, namely Gaines, Andrews, Winkler and Ward.
Think convection will be too sparse this afternoon and evening for
widespread heavy rainfall, so will trim these counties from the
watch.

After the shortwave trough moves by early Sunday morning, think
Sunday will be fairly quiescent, but just a bit breezy with a
drying southwesterly winds and temperatures rising to near normal.
However, a shortwave trough rounding the back and southern side of
the departing upper low will head toward the region, with
height/surface pressure falls drawing moisture back into the area
and a surface trough/dryline sharpening over the area on Monday.
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly over the
eastern half of the CWA.  Some of these storms could be strong, if
not severe, as instability, shear and lapse rates will be
favorable.  But the timing of the shortwave trough may be such that
convection starts early in the day, which could temper the severity
of storms.  Fairly weak westerly flow aloft, or weak upper ridging,
will then prevail over the region Tuesday into Wednesday which
portends dry and seasonably warm temperatures.  However, another
upper trough will take shape over the western ConUS, head east and
give the region another chance of rain from Wednesday night through
Friday.  Temperatures look to be seasonably warm during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  83  56  85  /  50  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              61  86  62  86  /  70  20  10  40
CARLSBAD NM                50  86  53  86  /  20   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  63  91  65  90  /  60  10  10  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  88  59  88  /  50  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  77  55  80  /  20   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   53  80  51  82  /  30  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   47  80  43  82  /  30   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    62  86  61  87  /  50  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                  62  85  61  86  /  50  10  10  20
WINK TX                    58  88  55  89  /  40  10   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

67/80

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225
FXUS64 KMAF 231734
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1226 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be elevated out of the south this afternoon and will
remain elevated into the early evening hours before weakening and
coming around to the southwest to west Sunday morning.  Showers
and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight across
the area.  Low ceilings will likely come into the area after 03z and
will improve by 15z Sunday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A line of showers and thunderstorms currently moving across northern
portions of the Permian Basin this morning is expected to continue
to move northeast through the early morning hours, and unlike storms
further north in eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle,
rainfall amounts with these storms remain fairly light. Thus,
flooding concerns early this morning remain low, though that will
change by this later this morning/early this afternoon as widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop from the Big Bend
area north-northeastward across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin.
The slow moving upper low/trough that has been responsible for the
unsettled weather pattern lately will continue its eastward
progression today, with accompanying height falls overspreading the
area through tonight. Flow over the region will become increasingly
meridional today in response to the advancing trough and developing
ridge downstream over the eastern CONUS, and ample lift will be
further supported by a 300mb jet rounding the base of the trough,
with much of the region beneath the right entrance region of an
upper jet streak. At 500mb, impulses in the southwest flow will
serve to drive continued storm development through the day today,
with storms first expected to develop over higher terrain to the
south this morning and expand in coverage northeast across the Trans
Pecos and Permian Basin by early afternoon.  Continued southerly
surface flow has maintained incredibly moist lower levels, with
precipitable water values 2 standard deviations above normal.
Thus, storms that develop today are expected to be efficient
rainfall producers, and given anticipated storm motion, cell
training could result in rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with
locally higher amounts up to 3 inches possible across the Lower
Trans Pecos and Permian Basin through this evening, where a Flash
Flood Watch is in effect.

There is the potential for severe thunderstorms this afternoon,
particularly across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos
where diurnal destabilization is expected to result in SBCAPE of
1200-2000J/kg, and 0-6km shear approaches 30-45kt. The primary
threats with storms that develop this afternoon will be large hail
and damaging wind, as well as heavy rainfall.  Given the amount of
shear, an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The severe
threat over eastern portions of the area today should begin to
decrease tonight as the environment is worked over by heavy
rainfall, with the threats of both severe weather and heavy rain
shifting eastward toward central Texas overnight.

By Sunday morning, there may be some lingering precipitation across
the Western Low Rolling Plains, though a lull is expected for most
of the day as the trough axis finally shifts east of the area and
surface flow becomes southwesterly, allowing for drier and warmer
conditions in its wake. Temperatures Sunday will rebound nicely,
into the low to middle 80s across southeast New Mexico and the
Permian Basin, with upper 80s and 90s possible across the south.
Temperatures return close to normal by Monday/Memorial Day, though a
shortwave rounding the back side of the departing trough could be
enough to result in some thunderstorms across the Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos during the afternoon/evening on Memorial Day. A
reprieve from precipitation is expected Tuesday and Wednesday, in
response to weak ridging over the area, with temperatures expected
to be close to normal. By Wednesday night, yet another western CONUS
trough will result in a return to southwesterly flow aloft, and
thus, a return to an unsettled weather pattern with increasing
precipitation chances for the end of next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

99

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735
FXUS64 KMAF 231127
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Convection has been slow to materialize this AM, however SHRA/TSRA
are still expected to develop to the sw this morning and spread
newd. CNM/HOB will mostly be on the periphery and we have tended
to down play TSRA there. Some MVFR BR is expected this morning
too. TSRA are expected to stretch from FST...to near or just e of
MAF this PM however as jet moves closer redevelopment of TSRA are
expected farther w and have reflected that in TEMPO TSRA at INK/PEQ
after 22Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A line of showers and thunderstorms currently moving across northern
portions of the Permian Basin this morning is expected to continue
to move northeast through the early morning hours, and unlike storms
further north in eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle,
rainfall amounts with these storms remain fairly light. Thus,
flooding concerns early this morning remain low, though that will
change by this later this morning/early this afternoon as widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop from the Big Bend
area north-northeastward across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin.
The slow moving upper low/trough that has been responsible for the
unsettled weather pattern lately will continue its eastward
progression today, with accompanying height falls overspreading the
area through tonight. Flow over the region will become increasingly
meridional today in response to the advancing trough and developing
ridge downstream over the eastern CONUS, and ample lift will be
further supported by a 300mb jet rounding the base of the trough,
with much of the region beneath the right entrance region of an
upper jet streak. At 500mb, impulses in the southwest flow will
serve to drive continued storm development through the day today,
with storms first expected to develop over higher terrain to the
south this morning and expand in coverage northeast across the Trans
Pecos and Permian Basin by early afternoon.  Continued southerly
surface flow has maintained incredibly moist lower levels, with
precipitable water values 2 standard deviations above normal.
Thus, storms that develop today are expected to be efficient
rainfall producers, and given anticipated storm motion, cell
training could result in rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with
locally higher amounts up to 3 inches possible across the Lower
Trans Pecos and Permian Basin through this evening, where a Flash
Flood Watch is in effect.

There is the potential for severe thunderstorms this afternoon,
particularly across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos
where diurnal destabilization is expected to result in SBCAPE of
1200-2000J/kg, and 0-6km shear approaches 30-45kt. The primary
threats with storms that develop this afternoon will be large hail
and damaging wind, as well as heavy rainfall.  Given the amount of
shear, an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The severe
threat over eastern portions of the area today should begin to
decrease tonight as the environment is worked over by heavy
rainfall, with the threats of both severe weather and heavy rain
shifting eastward toward central Texas overnight.

By Sunday morning, there may be some lingering precipitation across
the Western Low Rolling Plains, though a lull is expected for most
of the day as the trough axis finally shifts east of the area and
surface flow becomes southwesterly, allowing for drier and warmer
conditions in its wake. Temperatures Sunday will rebound nicely,
into the low to middle 80s across southeast New Mexico and the
Permian Basin, with upper 80s and 90s possible across the south.
Temperatures return close to normal by Monday/Memorial Day, though a
shortwave rounding the back side of the departing trough could be
enough to result in some thunderstorms across the Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos during the afternoon/evening on Memorial Day. A
reprieve from precipitation is expected Tuesday and Wednesday, in
response to weak ridging over the area, with temperatures expected
to be close to normal. By Wednesday night, yet another western CONUS
trough will result in a return to southwesterly flow aloft, and
thus, a return to an unsettled weather pattern with increasing
precipitation chances for the end of next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Glasscock...Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
     Reagan...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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471
FXUS64 KMAF 230952
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
452 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A line of showers and thunderstorms currently moving across northern
portions of the Permian Basin this morning is expected to continue
to move northeast through the early morning hours, and unlike storms
further north in eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle,
rainfall amounts with these storms remain fairly light. Thus,
flooding concerns early this morning remain low, though that will
change by this later this morning/early this afternoon as widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop from the Big Bend
area north-northeastward across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin.
The slow moving upper low/trough that has been responsible for the
unsettled weather pattern lately will continue its eastward
progression today, with accompanying height falls overspreading the
area through tonight. Flow over the region will become increasingly
meridional today in response to the advancing trough and developing
ridge downstream over the eastern CONUS, and ample lift will be
further supported by a 300mb jet rounding the base of the trough,
with much of the region beneath the right entrance region of an
upper jet streak. At 500mb, impulses in the southwest flow will
serve to drive continued storm development through the day today,
with storms first expected to develop over higher terrain to the
south this morning and expand in coverage northeast across the Trans
Pecos and Permian Basin by early afternoon.  Continued southerly
surface flow has maintained incredibly moist lower levels, with
precipitable water values 2 standard deviations above normal.
Thus, storms that develop today are expected to be efficient
rainfall producers, and given anticipated storm motion, cell
training could result in rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with
locally higher amounts up to 3 inches possible across the Lower
Trans Pecos and Permian Basin through this evening, where a Flash
Flood Watch is in effect.

There is the potential for severe thunderstorms this afternoon,
particularly across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos
where diurnal destabilization is expected to result in SBCAPE of
1200-2000J/kg, and 0-6km shear approaches 30-45kt. The primary
threats with storms that develop this afternoon will be large hail
and damaging wind, as well as heavy rainfall.  Given the amount of
shear, an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The severe
threat over eastern portions of the area today should begin to
decrease tonight as the environment is worked over by heavy
rainfall, with the threats of both severe weather and heavy rain
shifting eastward toward central Texas overnight.

By Sunday morning, there may be some lingering precipitation across
the Western Low Rolling Plains, though a lull is expected for most
of the day as the trough axis finally shifts east of the area and
surface flow becomes southwesterly, allowing for drier and warmer
conditions in its wake. Temperatures Sunday will rebound nicely,
into the low to middle 80s across southeast New Mexico and the
Permian Basin, with upper 80s and 90s possible across the south.
Temperatures return close to normal by Monday/Memorial Day, though a
shortwave rounding the back side of the departing trough could be
enough to result in some thunderstorms across the Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos during the afternoon/evening on Memorial Day. A
reprieve from precipitation is expected Tuesday and Wednesday, in
response to weak ridging over the area, with temperatures expected
to be close to normal. By Wednesday night, yet another western CONUS
trough will result in a return to southwesterly flow aloft, and
thus, a return to an unsettled weather pattern with increasing
precipitation chances for the end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  60  83  56  /  60  50  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              78  62  86  62  /  80  70  30  10
CARLSBAD NM                83  51  86  53  /  20  20   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  83  64  91  65  /  80  60  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           80  59  88  59  /  70  50  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  53  77  55  /  20  20   0  10
HOBBS NM                   78  53  80  51  /  40  30  10  10
MARFA TX                   75  45  80  43  /  40  30   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  62  86  61  /  70  50  20  10
ODESSA TX                  78  62  85  61  /  70  50  10  10
WINK TX                    81  59  88  55  /  40  40  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Glasscock...Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
     Reagan...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

49/84

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258
FXUS64 KMAF 230527
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1227 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Concern for the 1st 18hrs or so of fcst is potential for TSRA.
TSRA will first be most likely across SE NM were TEMPO groups are
included from the start at 06Z, then spreading TEMPO groups e and
s starting btwn 09-11Z. Mostly MVFR CIGS/VSBY expected with TSRA.
TEMPO groups will end at CNM by 15Z and 20Z HOB and 23Z-24Z at all
others.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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658
FXUS64 KMAF 222301
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
601 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A strong upper level storm system across Arizona is expected to
produce occasional showers and thunderstorms through the TAF
period with occasional MVFR conditions. Southeast winds of 10 to
25 mph and gusty tonight is expected to become south to southwest
by mid Saturday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over southwest Texas
this afternoon, with more thunderstorms developing late tonight over
the Guadalupe Mountains or southeast New Mexico Plains, if not the
Upper Trans Pecos.  Heavy rainfall will be spotty over southwest
Texas this afternoon/evening, but looks to become more widespread
over the northern CWA tonight, and over the Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos Saturday when another round of convection
appears to be in the offing. Severe storms will also be possible
Saturday.

A large upper low over southern California today will head east this
weekend with southwest flow aloft propagating several shortwave
troughs over the region.  One such shortwave trough just east of the
northern Baja Peninsula will provide a modicum of lift this
afternoon and evening over southwest Texas where SBCAPES will rise
to around 2500 J/Kg over the higher terrain and along a
strengthening surface trough.  Expect thunderstorms to develop over
the higher terrain with 0 to 6Km bulk shear of 30-40kt and steep mid
level lapse rates of 7-8C/Km resulting in organized severe
thunderstorms in and near the Davis/Glass Mountains, Stockton
Plateau, Big Bend region and into the Lower Trans Pecos tonight.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats, although
a tornado or two is not out of the question.  Storms could
conglomerate into a small MCS and head east/southeastward across the
Lower Trans Pecos tonight.  Heavy rainfall will be a concern, but
convection is not expected to be widespread and localized flash
flooding will be possible.

This evening and later tonight, more thunderstorms are expected to
develop over the Upper Trans Pecos and southeast New Mexico.  A low
level jet will strengthen over the area due to height falls ahead of
the approaching upper low, and provide a modestly unstable airmass
to feed into a  developing cluster of storms over the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast new Mexico Plains, if not over the Upper
Trans Pecos.  Shortly after convective initiation, instability
and shear will be conducive for organized thunderstorms, and along
with steep mid level lapse rates spreading over these areas, result
in storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, perhaps a tornado
and locally heavy rainfall.  Think these storms will head east/
northeastward, along with the warm front, and move into the northern
Permian Basin as they cluster into another MCS late tonight.  PWaTs
will ramp up to near 1 inch over southeast New Mexico tonight and
closer to 1.5 inch over the northern Permian Basin.  Think if a
complex develops, heavy rainfall could result in flash flooding,
especially over Lea County and the northern Permian Basin, where
there has been heavy rainfall recently.  Since storms could develop
off the Guadalupe Mountains, think Eddy county could also receive
heavy rainfall early on.  Despite Eddy County not having widespread
heavy rainfall recently, will still include them in the Flash Flood
Watch tonight due to high precipitable water, and heavy rainfall
potential.

Convection could still be under way Saturday morning over the
northern CWA.  Think the atmosphere will destabilize along and east
of a surface trough, which will reside over the western CWA Saturday
afternoon, as temperatures start to return to closer to normal
values.  Then we could see another round of convection Saturday
afternoon as the base of the upper low extends well south into the
region, enhancing lift over the region into the evening.  Convective
initiation may be altered depending on how widespread convection is
tonight, but will still have to carry a good chance to numerous
thunderstorms in the forecast due to increased synoptic scale lift
over the region.  Some of these storms could be severe too as shear
and lapse rates will be favorable again.  Heavy rainfall will again
be of concern, especially over the western Low Rolling Plains,
central/eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos where PWaTs rise
to 1-1.5 inch, or near 2 standard deviations above normal.  Another
cluster of storms could form Saturday night over these areas with
training of thunderstorms enhancing heavy rainfall potential.  Will
go ahead and include all of these areas in the Flash Flood Watch,
which will likely have to be adjusted later tonight, if not again
Saturday afternoon.  Convection may continue Saturday night over the
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, so the FFA may have to be
extended.

Sunday may be a down day as the upper low ejects into the northern
U.S. Plains.  However, another lobe of energy will wheel around the
southwestern periphery of the departing upper low and head for the
region.  Therefore, will include more thunderstorm chances over the
forecast area Monday as this shortwave trough nears the region.
Moisture will spread northwestward into the region, and along with
near normal temperatures, promote an unstable atmosphere along a
sharpening dryline and the potential for more severe thunderstorms
Monday and Monday night.  The ua trough will pass by Tuesday, but
yet another ua trough will deepen over the western ConUS and head
east, so thunderstorm chances could increase again Tuesday over the
east, then further west Wednesday.  Temperatures should be near
normal throughout the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

67/80

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767
FXUS64 KMAF 221954
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
254 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over southwest Texas
this afternoon, with more thunderstorms developing late tonight over
the Guadalupe Mountains or southeast New Mexico Plains, if not the
Upper Trans Pecos.  Heavy rainfall will be spotty over southwest
Texas this afternoon/evening, but looks to become more widespread
over the northern CWA tonight, and over the Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos Saturday when another round of convection
appears to be in the offing. Severe storms will also be possible
Saturday.

A large upper low over southern California today will head east this
weekend with southwest flow aloft propagating several shortwave
troughs over the region.  One such shortwave trough just east of the
northern Baja Peninsula will provide a modicum of lift this
afternoon and evening over southwest Texas where SBCAPES will rise
to around 2500 J/Kg over the higher terrain and along a
strengthening surface trough.  Expect thunderstorms to develop over
the higher terrain with 0 to 6Km bulk shear of 30-40kt and steep mid
level lapse rates of 7-8C/Km resulting in organized severe
thunderstorms in and near the Davis/Glass Mountains, Stockton
Plateau, Big Bend region and into the Lower Trans Pecos tonight.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats, although
a tornado or two is not out of the question.  Storms could
conglomerate into a small MCS and head east/southeastward across the
Lower Trans Pecos tonight.  Heavy rainfall will be a concern, but
convection is not expected to be widespread and localized flash
flooding will be possible.

This evening and later tonight, more thunderstorms are expected to
develop over the Upper Trans Pecos and southeast New Mexico.  A low
level jet will strengthen over the area due to height falls ahead of
the approaching upper low, and provide a modestly unstable airmass
to feed into a  developing cluster of storms over the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast new Mexico Plains, if not over the Upper
Trans Pecos.  Shortly after convective initiation, instability
and shear will be conducive for organized thunderstorms, and along
with steep mid level lapse rates spreading over these areas, result
in storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, perhaps a tornado
and locally heavy rainfall.  Think these storms will head east/
northeastward, along with the warm front, and move into the northern
Permian Basin as they cluster into another MCS late tonight.  PWaTs
will ramp up to near 1 inch over southeast New Mexico tonight and
closer to 1.5 inch over the northern Permian Basin.  Think if a
complex develops, heavy rainfall could result in flash flooding,
especially over Lea County and the northern Permian Basin, where
there has been heavy rainfall recently.  Since storms could develop
off the Guadalupe Mountains, think Eddy county could also receive
heavy rainfall early on.  Despite Eddy County not having widespread
heavy rainfall recently, will still include them in the Flash Flood
Watch tonight due to high precipitable water, and heavy rainfall
potential.

Convection could still be under way Saturday morning over the
northern CWA.  Think the atmosphere will destabilize along and east
of a surface trough, which will reside over the western CWA Saturday
afternoon, as temperatures start to return to closer to normal
values.  Then we could see another round of convection Saturday
afternoon as the base of the upper low extends well south into the
region, enhancing lift over the region into the evening.  Convective
initiation may be altered depending on how widespread convection is
tonight, but will still have to carry a good chance to numerous
thunderstorms in the forecast due to increased synoptic scale lift
over the region.  Some of these storms could be severe too as shear
and lapse rates will be favorable again.  Heavy rainfall will again
be of concern, especially over the western Low Rolling Plains,
central/eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos where PWaTs rise
to 1-1.5 inch, or near 2 standard deviations above normal.  Another
cluster of storms could form Saturday night over these areas with
training of thunderstorms enhancing heavy rainfall potential.  Will
go ahead and include all of these areas in the Flash Flood Watch,
which will likely have to be adjusted later tonight, if not again
Saturday afternoon.  Convection may continue Saturday night over the
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, so the FFA may have to be
extended.

Sunday may be a down day as the upper low ejects into the northern
U.S. Plains.  However, another lobe of energy will wheel around the
southwestern periphery of the departing upper low and head for the
region.  Therefore, will include more thunderstorm chances over the
forecast area Monday as this shortwave trough nears the region.
Moisture will spread northwestward into the region, and along with
near normal temperatures, promote an unstable atmosphere along a
sharpening dryline and the potential for more severe thunderstorms
Monday and Monday night.  The ua trough will pass by Tuesday, but
yet another ua trough will deepen over the western ConUS and head
east, so thunderstorm chances could increase again Tuesday over the
east, then further west Wednesday.  Temperatures should be near
normal throughout the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  77  60  84  /  70  50  50  20
BIG SPRING TX              67  79  62  87  /  50  80  60  30
CARLSBAD NM                59  83  51  86  /  50  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  69  83  65  91  /  40  80  70  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           67  80  60  88  /  40  50  50  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          56  77  51  76  /  30  20  20   0
HOBBS NM                   62  77  54  80  /  70  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   57  77  48  80  /  30  40  30   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  78  62  86  /  50  70  50  20
ODESSA TX                  67  77  62  85  /  50  60  50  20
WINK TX                    66  83  60  88  /  50  40  40  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Saturday
     afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...
     Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
     Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Saturday
     afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...
     Crane...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...
     Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

67/80

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930
FXUS64 KMAF 221743
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ceilings will gradually improve through the early afternoon hours
and should be VFR by 22z.  Winds will be fairly light out of the
east and southeast this afternoon before becoming elevated out of
the southeast this evening.  There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms this afternoon with the best chance being at FST.
Ceilings are expected to lower again across most areas after 00z.
There is an even better chance of showers and thunderstorms
overnight so have added PROB30 groups through about 12z although
convection is possible through Saturday morning.  Ceilings are
expected to improve by 15z Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

UPDATE...

Updated the forecast to include mention of areas of fog this
morning, as most observation sites across far southeast New
Mexico, the Permian Basin, and Trans Pecos are reporting
visibility reductions. Conditions are expected to improve by mid-
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The shortwave responsible for the precipitation over the past 24
hours will lift to the northeast today, with weak midlevel height
rises in its wake as precipitation gradually tapers off from
southwest to northeast. While partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
the rule today, temperatures will rebound noticeably, with highs in
the 70s across the southeast New Mexico Plains and Permian Basin, to
80s across the Trans Pecos and points west and south. Continued
southeasterly surface flow will maintain the very moist boundary
layer, and despite much of the northern half of the forecast area
remaining capped, locations across the Big Bend area and Lower Trans
Pecos could once again see strong to severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon and into this evening as storms develop across higher
terrain and move into a moderately unstable environment
characterized by temperatures in the middle 80s and ample shear.
Primary risks with these storms are large hail and damaging winds,
as well as locally heavy rainfall.

Tonight, height falls will begin to overspread western portions of
the area as the trough to the west begins to progress eastward,
yielding increasing midlevel lapse rates as well as a strengthening
southerly low level jet.  A series of weak impulses embedded in the
southwest flow through tonight ahead of the trough will serve to
amplify ascent over the area, particularly across southeast New
Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase in coverage
across the aforementioned area tonight, and will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds.  Locally heavy rainfall
will also continue to be a concern, with some areas still saturated
from previous rainfall over the past week, and precipitable water
values 2 standard deviations above normal.

The threat of thunderstorms will continue into Saturday as the
trough continues its eastward progression, with the best chance
shifting across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin coincident with
the dryline, which would serve as a focus for additional storm
development in the wake of departing storms from Friday night.
Rebounding temperatures, further steepening lapse rates, and
increasing forcing for ascent ahead of the approaching trough will
be favorable for strong to severe storm development once again, and
given ample speed and directional shear, supercells are possible.
Large hail, damaging wind, and an isolated tornado or two would be
the primary threats.

On Sunday, the trough axis will finally shift across the area, with
winds becoming westerly to southwesterly in its wake, allowing for
warmer and drier conditions across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas.  Aside from a chance of storms across the far eastern Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos on Monday where moisture will be most
available, dry conditions look to prevail through midweek.  The
warming trend will also continue through midweek, with temperatures
reaching into the upper 80s to lower to mid 90s by Wednesday.
However, models are in agreement regarding the development of yet
another western CONUS trough late in the period, which would mark a
return to an unsettled weather pattern with increasing precipitation
chances heading into the end of next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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209
FXUS64 KMAF 221135
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
635 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.UPDATE...

Updated the forecast to include mention of areas of fog this
morning, as most observation sites across far southeast New
Mexico, the Permian Basin, and Trans Pecos are reporting
visibility reductions. Conditions are expected to improve by mid-
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Latest model runs are indicating clouds/CIGS/VBSY may lift a
little earlier than previous runs and generally have TAFs going
VFR around 21Z or a little earlier. Still looks like se winds will
increase late this afternoon/evening with low level jet, 15-20kts
surface winds. Finally have opted to intro a PROB30 group in the
forecast to account for storms expected in SE NM/NW PB Saturday
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The shortwave responsible for the precipitation over the past 24
hours will lift to the northeast today, with weak midlevel height
rises in its wake as precipitation gradually tapers off from
southwest to northeast. While partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
the rule today, temperatures will rebound noticeably, with highs in
the 70s across the southeast New Mexico Plains and Permian Basin, to
80s across the Trans Pecos and points west and south. Continued
southeasterly surface flow will maintain the very moist boundary
layer, and despite much of the northern half of the forecast area
remaining capped, locations across the Big Bend area and Lower Trans
Pecos could once again see strong to severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon and into this evening as storms develop across higher
terrain and move into a moderately unstable environment
characterized by temperatures in the middle 80s and ample shear.
Primary risks with these storms are large hail and damaging winds,
as well as locally heavy rainfall.

Tonight, height falls will begin to overspread western portions of
the area as the trough to the west begins to progress eastward,
yielding increasing midlevel lapse rates as well as a strengthening
southerly low level jet.  A series of weak impulses embedded in the
southwest flow through tonight ahead of the trough will serve to
amplify ascent over the area, particularly across southeast New
Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase in coverage
across the aforementioned area tonight, and will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds.  Locally heavy rainfall
will also continue to be a concern, with some areas still saturated
from previous rainfall over the past week, and precipitable water
values 2 standard deviations above normal.

The threat of thunderstorms will continue into Saturday as the
trough continues its eastward progression, with the best chance
shifting across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin coincident with
the dryline, which would serve as a focus for additional storm
development in the wake of departing storms from Friday night.
Rebounding temperatures, further steepening lapse rates, and
increasing forcing for ascent ahead of the approaching trough will
be favorable for strong to severe storm development once again, and
given ample speed and directional shear, supercells are possible.
Large hail, damaging wind, and an isolated tornado or two would be
the primary threats.

On Sunday, the trough axis will finally shift across the area, with
winds becoming westerly to southwesterly in its wake, allowing for
warmer and drier conditions across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas.  Aside from a chance of storms across the far eastern Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos on Monday where moisture will be most
available, dry conditions look to prevail through midweek.  The
warming trend will also continue through midweek, with temperatures
reaching into the upper 80s to lower to mid 90s by Wednesday.
However, models are in agreement regarding the development of yet
another western CONUS trough late in the period, which would mark a
return to an unsettled weather pattern with increasing precipitation
chances heading into the end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 76  64  79  60  /  40  50  40  50
BIG SPRING TX              77  67  80  63  /  40  50  60  60
CARLSBAD NM                81  58  83  53  /  20  40  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  85  70  83  65  /  30  40  50  50
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  66  82  60  /  30  40  50  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  55  77  54  /  10  30  10  20
HOBBS NM                   75  59  77  53  /  30  60  30  30
MARFA TX                   85  55  77  47  /  20  30  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  67  80  62  /  40  50  50  50
ODESSA TX                  79  67  80  62  /  40  50  50  50
WINK TX                    83  67  83  59  /  30  50  40  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/84

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906
FXUS64 KMAF 221112
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Latest model runs are indicating clouds/CIGS/VBSY may lift a
little earlier than previous runs and generally have TAFs going
VFR around 21Z or a little earlier. Still looks like se winds will
increase late this afternoon/evening with low level jet, 15-20kts
surface winds. Finally have opted to intro a PROB30 group in the
forecast to account for storms expected in SE NM/NW PB Saturday
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The shortwave responsible for the precipitation over the past 24
hours will lift to the northeast today, with weak midlevel height
rises in its wake as precipitation gradually tapers off from
southwest to northeast. While partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
the rule today, temperatures will rebound noticeably, with highs in
the 70s across the southeast New Mexico Plains and Permian Basin, to
80s across the Trans Pecos and points west and south. Continued
southeasterly surface flow will maintain the very moist boundary
layer, and despite much of the northern half of the forecast area
remaining capped, locations across the Big Bend area and Lower Trans
Pecos could once again see strong to severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon and into this evening as storms develop across higher
terrain and move into a moderately unstable environment
characterized by temperatures in the middle 80s and ample shear.
Primary risks with these storms are large hail and damaging winds,
as well as locally heavy rainfall.

Tonight, height falls will begin to overspread western portions of
the area as the trough to the west begins to progress eastward,
yielding increasing midlevel lapse rates as well as a strengthening
southerly low level jet.  A series of weak impulses embedded in the
southwest flow through tonight ahead of the trough will serve to
amplify ascent over the area, particularly across southeast New
Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase in coverage
across the aforementioned area tonight, and will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds.  Locally heavy rainfall
will also continue to be a concern, with some areas still saturated
from previous rainfall over the past week, and precipitable water
values 2 standard deviations above normal.

The threat of thunderstorms will continue into Saturday as the
trough continues its eastward progression, with the best chance
shifting across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin coincident with
the dryline, which would serve as a focus for additional storm
development in the wake of departing storms from Friday night.
Rebounding temperatures, further steepening lapse rates, and
increasing forcing for ascent ahead of the approaching trough will
be favorable for strong to severe storm development once again, and
given ample speed and directional shear, supercells are possible.
Large hail, damaging wind, and an isolated tornado or two would be
the primary threats.

On Sunday, the trough axis will finally shift across the area, with
winds becoming westerly to southwesterly in its wake, allowing for
warmer and drier conditions across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas.  Aside from a chance of storms across the far eastern Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos on Monday where moisture will be most
available, dry conditions look to prevail through midweek.  The
warming trend will also continue through midweek, with temperatures
reaching into the upper 80s to lower to mid 90s by Wednesday.
However, models are in agreement regarding the development of yet
another western CONUS trough late in the period, which would mark a
return to an unsettled weather pattern with increasing precipitation
chances heading into the end of next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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930
FXUS64 KMAF 220917
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
417 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The shortwave responsible for the precipitation over the past 24
hours will lift to the northeast today, with weak midlevel height
rises in its wake as precipitation gradually tapers off from
southwest to northeast. While partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
the rule today, temperatures will rebound noticeably, with highs in
the 70s across the southeast New Mexico Plains and Permian Basin, to
80s across the Trans Pecos and points west and south. Continued
southeasterly surface flow will maintain the very moist boundary
layer, and despite much of the northern half of the forecast area
remaining capped, locations across the Big Bend area and Lower Trans
Pecos could once again see strong to severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon and into this evening as storms develop across higher
terrain and move into a moderately unstable environment
characterized by temperatures in the middle 80s and ample shear.
Primary risks with these storms are large hail and damaging winds,
as well as locally heavy rainfall.

Tonight, height falls will begin to overspread western portions of
the area as the trough to the west begins to progress eastward,
yielding increasing midlevel lapse rates as well as a strengthening
southerly low level jet.  A series of weak impulses embedded in the
southwest flow through tonight ahead of the trough will serve to
amplify ascent over the area, particularly across southeast New
Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase in coverage
across the aforementioned area tonight, and will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds.  Locally heavy rainfall
will also continue to be a concern, with some areas still saturated
from previous rainfall over the past week, and precipitable water
values 2 standard deviations above normal.

The threat of thunderstorms will continue into Saturday as the
trough continues its eastward progression, with the best chance
shifting across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin coincident with
the dryline, which would serve as a focus for additional storm
development in the wake of departing storms from Friday night.
Rebounding temperatures, further steepening lapse rates, and
increasing forcing for ascent ahead of the approaching trough will
be favorable for strong to severe storm development once again, and
given ample speed and directional shear, supercells are possible.
Large hail, damaging wind, and an isolated tornado or two would be
the primary threats.

On Sunday, the trough axis will finally shift across the area, with
winds becoming westerly to southwesterly in its wake, allowing for
warmer and drier conditions across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas.  Aside from a chance of storms across the far eastern Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos on Monday where moisture will be most
available, dry conditions look to prevail through midweek.  The
warming trend will also continue through midweek, with temperatures
reaching into the upper 80s to lower to mid 90s by Wednesday.
However, models are in agreement regarding the development of yet
another western CONUS trough late in the period, which would mark a
return to an unsettled weather pattern with increasing precipitation
chances heading into the end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 76  64  79  60  /  40  50  40  50
BIG SPRING TX              77  67  80  63  /  40  50  60  60
CARLSBAD NM                81  58  83  53  /  20  40  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  85  70  83  65  /  30  40  50  50
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  66  82  60  /  30  40  50  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  55  77  54  /  10  30  10  20
HOBBS NM                   75  59  77  53  /  30  60  30  30
MARFA TX                   85  55  77  47  /  20  30  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  67  80  62  /  40  50  50  50
ODESSA TX                  79  67  80  62  /  40  50  50  50
WINK TX                    83  67  83  59  /  30  50  40  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/84

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373
FXUS64 KMAF 220514
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Little change in CIGS/VSBY thru 15Z or so when the IFR/LIFR
conditions start to lift, first at CNM/FST. At least brief VFR wx
is expected late PM. SE winds will strengthen noticeably by late
afternoon/evening to 15-20kts. We expect that convection will be
in a lull into/thru the afternoon before increasing again late
tonight, at the end of the this forecast period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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421
FXUS64 KMAF 212321
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Most storms are moving out of the area this evening though a few
could affect CNM later tonight near 06Z. Otherwise MVFR-IFR
conditions expected...possibly even LIFR near 12Z for much of the
next 24 hours. Some improvement can be expected after 18Z Friday,
perhaps even VFR conditions before the end of the TAF period, as
low clouds push east.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Currently have persistent moist, easterly/upslope flow across the
region this afternoon with a cool surface ridge centered over the TX
Panhandle. With a much cooler airmass in place and abundant cloud
cover, temperatures remain in the 50s most locations with the
exception of the far southern zones where 60s are more common.
Places along the Rio Grande, such as Presidio, are seeing temps near
80 with increasing instability as a result. Already seeing some
convection develop just south of the Rio Grande in Mexico and should
continue to see isolated strong to severe thunderstorms affect far
S/SW zones through this evening. Large hail, damaging winds and heavy
rainfall will be the main threats.

The next significant upper wave looks to swing through NM tonight
but the greatest upper forcing should stay to the NW of the CWA.
Regardless, we could get at least some weak forcing along with
overrunning of the cold air promoting some elevated showers with
embedded thunderstorms overnight. There could be pockets of heavier
precip given the available moisture and potential lift, so there
remains some concern for localized areas of flash flooding
overnight. Rain chances will wain and shift east Friday morning with
a short lull in thunderstorm activity for most areas through the
afternoon. Meanwhile, the upper trough that has been camping out
over the western ConUS will begin its slow progression eastward with
notable height falls overspreading the region late Friday night,
providing strong upper forcing for ascent through much of the
weekend. With continued moist southeasterly flow in place, will
continue to carry fairly decent PoPs Friday night through Sunday
morning. Again, there could be pockets of moderate to heavy rain so
concerns for flooding and flash flooding will continue.

The upper forcing will shift east of the FA Sunday with rain ending
from west to east. Significant height rises in the wake of the
departing upper low and dry, southwesterly winds most areas Monday
so most areas will remain dry Memorial Day. The GFS indicates an
upper wave passing through northern NM so upper forcing will likely
remain too far north. For now, have continued at least slight chance
PoPs across the far east where moisture would be more readily
available. Tuesday, may have some dryline thunderstorms but no
notable upper forcing attm so will carry silent PoPs for now.
Models indicate another west coast trough mid- late next week with
returning rain chances. Otherwise, temperatures will be on the
increase tomorrow through the weekend, heading toward normal
readings by mid next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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682
FXUS64 KMAF 211950
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
250 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Currently have persistent moist, easterly/upslope flow across the
region this afternoon with a cool surface ridge centered over the TX
Panhandle. With a much cooler airmass in place and abundant cloud
cover, temperatures remain in the 50s most locations with the
exception of the far southern zones where 60s are more common.
Places along the Rio Grande, such as Presidio, are seeing temps near
80 with increasing instability as a result. Already seeing some
convection develop just south of the Rio Grande in Mexico and should
continue to see isolated strong to severe thunderstorms affect far
S/SW zones through this evening. Large hail, damaging winds and heavy
rainfall will be the main threats.

The next significant upper wave looks to swing through NM tonight
but the greatest upper forcing should stay to the NW of the CWA.
Regardless, we could get at least some weak forcing along with
overrunning of the cold air promoting some elevated showers with
embedded thunderstorms overnight. There could be pockets of heavier
precip given the available moisture and potential lift, so there
remains some concern for localized areas of flash flooding
overnight. Rain chances will wain and shift east Friday morning with
a short lull in thunderstorm activity for most areas through the
afternoon. Meanwhile, the upper trough that has been camping out
over the western ConUS will begin its slow progression eastward with
notable height falls overspreading the region late Friday night,
providing strong upper forcing for ascent through much of the
weekend. With continued moist southeasterly flow in place, will
continue to carry fairly decent PoPs Friday night through Sunday
morning. Again, there could be pockets of moderate to heavy rain so
concerns for flooding and flash flooding will continue.

The upper forcing will shift east of the FA Sunday with rain ending
from west to east. Significant height rises in the wake of the
departing upper low and dry, southwesterly winds most areas Monday
so most areas will remain dry Memorial Day. The GFS indicates an
upper wave passing through northern NM so upper forcing will likely
remain too far north. For now, have continued at least slight chance
PoPs across the far east where moisture would be more readily
available. Tuesday, may have some dryline thunderstorms but no
notable upper forcing attm so will carry silent PoPs for now.
Models indicate another west coast trough mid- late next week with
returning rain chances. Otherwise, temperatures will be on the
increase tomorrow through the weekend, heading toward normal
readings by mid next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 52  76  64  79  /  60  40  50  40
BIG SPRING TX              56  77  67  80  /  60  40  50  60
CARLSBAD NM                52  80  59  83  /  60  20  40  20
DRYDEN TX                  65  85  70  83  /  60  20  30  50
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  84  67  82  /  60  20  30  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  78  56  76  /  50  10  30  20
HOBBS NM                   50  75  59  77  /  60  30  60  30
MARFA TX                   53  83  57  78  /  50  20  30  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  79  66  80  /  60  40  50  50
ODESSA TX                  55  79  66  80  /  60  40  50  50
WINK TX                    55  83  65  83  /  60  30  50  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/27

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857
FXUS64 KMAF 211704
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1204 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Remaining IFR ceilings will give way to MVFR this afternoon,
which will persist at most terminals through the afternoon and
evening.  Expect ceilings to drop back to IFR tonight, along with
MVFR and IFR visibility in fog.  Will include probabilities for
TSRA at all terminals, mainly in the 22/02Z to 22/06Z time frame.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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241
FXUS64 KMAF 211123
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
623 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Stratus should remain over the region for the next 24 hrs. All
TAF sites have come down to IFR/LIFR cigs while fog has been
patchy with vsbys bouncing around. Cigs should stay low through
the morning and then slowly improve in the afternoon... may
briefly climb to MVFR before going down again tonight. Most sites
should see some light showers or storms today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...

An unseasonably cool and damp day is on tap across southeast New
Mexico and west Texas today in the wake of a cold front which has
become quasi-stationary across the Big Bend area. Temperatures today
are only expected to rise to the middle 50s across the southeastern
New Mexico plains to around 70 degrees across the Lower Trans
Pecos.  South of the front, temperatures markedly increase, with
highs in the 80s expected across the Big Bend area, and lower 90s
in the Rio Grande Valley. A series of weak disturbances in the
southwest flow aloft will provide forcing for ascent today ahead
of a more potent shortwave which looks to move across the region
overnight, and along with persistent moist easterly upslope flow,
will result in widespread shower and thunderstorm activity over
the next 24 hours. Cool temperatures and abundant cloud cover will
likely limit instability across much of the area today, though
through the Big Bend area where temperatures are expected to climb
into the 80s along and south of the stalled frontal boundary,
moderate instability is expected to combine with the upslope flow
and upper forcing to yield a threat for severe storm development.
Storms are expected to first develop over higher terrain, and as
they move into a more favorable/unstable environment, damaging
winds and large hail are expected to be the primary threat. Strong
shear across the Big Bend area and far Lower Trans Pecos near the
front will be supportive of supercells, and thus while not the
primary threat, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

As mentioned previously, a more potent shortwave is expected to
eject across the area tonight ahead of the western CONUS trough,
resulting in additional forcing for ascent and thus continued
opportunity for widespread showers/storms overnight.  However,
precipitation is expected to taper off early Friday morning as this
impulse lifts to the northeast, and with weak midlevel height rises
in the wake of this trough, a bit of reprieve is expected Friday as
temperatures begin to rebound into the 70s and 80s across much of
the area, with mid to upper 90s across the Rio Grande Valley.
For the weekend, sights turn to the western CONUS trough which
has been responsible for our maintained southwesterly flow aloft,
which will start to progress eastward on Saturday. Widespread
height falls and increasing forcing for ascent ahead of the trough
will yield increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms area-
wide through the weekend, given continued moisture-rich low levels
in persistent easterly/southeasterly flow. Warmer temperatures
through the weekend will also allow for at least moderate
instability, and thus, some of the storms on both Saturday and
Sunday could be strong to severe. The best chance for storms will
gradually shift eastward through the weekend as the upper trough
develops a positive tilt and lifts northeast of the area by late
Sunday/early Monday.

Upper ridging in the wake of the departing trough will yield a
break from precipitation through the first part of the week, as
temperatures climb back to near seasonal normals in the mid to
upper 80s and low 90s by Tuesday. Beyond midweek, the picture is
a bit less clear, as the GFS once again develops a longwave trough
over the western CONUS, resulting in a return to southwesterly
flow aloft by next Wednesday/Thursday, whereas the ECMWF maintains
more quasi-zonal flow through the end of next week, with only a
very weak trough developing over California. Will wait and see how
future model runs handle the evolution of the upper air pattern
before making any sweeping changes to the extended that far out.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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