Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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757
FXUS64 KMAF 261410 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
910 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Quick update to add isolated showers and thunderstorms across much
of the Permian Basin and portions of the southeast New Mexico
plains this morning per latest trends.

No other changes. Updated products to be sent shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 601 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected at all area terminals today and
tonight.  Will leave mention of TSRA out of all area sites since
the probability is too low.  This may change later today when
conditions are more certain.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

There is an outflow boundary moving into the northwestern CWA this
morning with a few showers developing just to its north...and this
highlights the problems with the PoP forecast the next several
days. Storms will be obviously concentrated in the higher
elevations, but other convection will form along outflow
boundaries whose locations will be impossible to determine more
than a few hours in advance. Therefore will continue to blanket
low PoPs across the area through Thursday then decrease into the
weekend. However the upper high will remain weak through the next
seven days, and with increasing temperatures by the weekend there
could be isolated to widely scattered storms beyond what is
currently in the forecast.

Models are in pretty good agreement that "cooler" air will be
advecting into the area with highs finally dropping below 100
again. Am a little skeptical that high temps will be as low as
guidance is showing some stations the next couple of days so
generally went near or slightly above MOS through the end of the
week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  73  96  74 /  20  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       96  73  98  72 /  40  30  30  20
Dryden                         97  74  97  73 /  30  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  96  73  95  72 /  30  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 85  67  85  67 /  40  30  30  20
Hobbs                          93  69  94  69 /  30  30  20  20
Marfa                          87  66  87  64 /  40  30  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           98  72  96  73 /  20  20  20  20
Odessa                         97  72  95  73 /  20  30  20  20
Wink                           98  74  96  73 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99
852
FXUS64 KMAF 261101
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
601 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected at all area terminals today and
tonight.  Will leave mention of TSRA out of all area sites since
the probability is too low.  This may change later today when
conditions are more certain.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

There is an outflow boundary moving into the northwestern CWA this
morning with a few showers developing just to its north...and this
highlights the problems with the PoP forecast the next several
days. Storms will be obviously concentrated in the higher
elevations, but other convection will form along outflow
boundaries whose locations will be impossible to determine more
than a few hours in advance. Therefore will continue to blanket
low PoPs across the area through Thursday then decrease into the
weekend. However the upper high will remain weak through the next
seven days, and with increasing temperatures by the weekend there
could be isolated to widely scattered storms beyond what is
currently in the forecast.

Models are in pretty good agreement that "cooler" air will be
advecting into the area with highs finally dropping below 100
again. Am a little skeptical that high temps will be as low as
guidance is showing some stations the next couple of days so
generally went near or slightly above MOS through the end of the
week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  73  96  74 /  20  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       96  73  98  72 /  40  30  30  20
Dryden                         97  74  97  73 /  30  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  96  73  95  72 /  30  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 85  67  85  67 /  40  30  30  20
Hobbs                          93  69  94  69 /  30  30  20  20
Marfa                          87  66  87  64 /  40  30  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           98  72  96  73 /  20  20  20  20
Odessa                         97  72  95  73 /  20  30  20  20
Wink                           98  74  96  73 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
637
FXUS64 KMAF 260831
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
331 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

There is an outflow boundary moving into the northwestern CWA this
morning with a few showers developing just to its north...and this
highlights the problems with the PoP forecast the next several
days. Storms will be obviously concentrated in the higher
elevations, but other convection will form along outflow
boundaries whose locations will be impossible to determine more
than a few hours in advance. Therefore will continue to blanket
low PoPs across the area through Thursday then decrease into the
weekend. However the upper high will remain weak through the next
seven days, and with increasing temperatures by the weekend there
could be isolated to widely scattered storms beyond what is
currently in the forecast.

Models are in pretty good agreement that "cooler" air will be
advecting into the area with highs finally dropping below 100
again. Am a little skeptical that high temps will be as low as
guidance is showing some stations the next couple of days so
generally went near or slightly above MOS through the end of the
week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  73  96  74 /  20  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       96  73  98  72 /  40  30  30  20
Dryden                         97  74  97  73 /  30  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  96  73  95  72 /  30  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 85  67  85  67 /  40  30  30  20
Hobbs                          93  69  94  69 /  30  30  20  20
Marfa                          87  66  87  64 /  40  30  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           98  72  96  73 /  20  20  20  20
Odessa                         97  72  95  73 /  20  30  20  20
Wink                           98  74  96  73 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/10
696
FXUS64 KMAF 260517
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1217 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

An outflow boundary will move south through all area terminals
tonight with northerly winds behind it.  Initially, winds will be
gusty behind it and should affect KCNM and KHOB around 26/06Z, and
KFST by 26/11Z.  Think thunderstorms could develop along/behind the
boundary and affect KCNM and KHOB through 26/08Z.  Storms affecting
any other terminals will be much more speculative, so will monitor.
Thunderstorms will be possible again this afternoon, but will likely
add a mention at sites potentially affected in the next issuance.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  94  74  92 /  20  20  30  30
Carlsbad                       73  96  72  95 /  20  20  20  20
Dryden                         76  97  76  95 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  72  94  72  94 /  20  20  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 69  89  68  86 /  20  20  20  20
Hobbs                          70  91  67  92 /  20  20  30  20
Marfa                          62  87  61  87 /  20  30  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           72  95  73  94 /  20  20  30  20
Odessa                         74  94  73  93 /  20  20  30  20
Wink                           73  97  73  95 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
033
FXUS64 KMAF 252314
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
614 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
There are few cells around the PB/SE NM, but are not expected to
impact TAF sites. Otherwise E-SE wind overnight less than 10kts.
SHRA/TSRA will be a little more favored later Tue PM but there is
too much uncertainty ATTP to include in TAFs, PROB30 groups may
eventually be needed though.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 PM CDT Monday...KMAF radar is showing
isolated/scattered thunderstorm activity moving southwest into the
northern tier of counties in the CWA.

Looks like the models do not have a good (or any) handle on the
convection moving southwest into the CWA. There was convection
last night to the north...the outflow boundary looks like it moved
south and is serving as the focus for the convective development.

A weak inverted trough will get trapped between two centers of the
subtropical ridge. One piece of the ridge will become centered
over Southern Nevada and the other piece will be along the
Southeast US Coast. Whereas the models are having difficulty with
the details including any boundaries from convection it looks like
the whole CWA will have the possibility of isolated/scattered
convection right thru Thursday. Temps will "cool" to near normal
for a change.

The ridge will begin to reassert itself starting Friday and
continuing thru the weekend. This will confine any thunderstorm
activity to the higher terrain to the south and west in upslope
flow and intense heating. Temps will also edge up to above normal
values by next weekend.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75  92  72  94 /  20  30  20  20
Carlsbad                       73  97  73  96 /  20  20  20  20
Dryden                         78  95  76  97 /  10  40  20  20
Fort Stockton                  73  94  72  94 /  10  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 70  88  69  89 /  10  20  20  20
Hobbs                          69  93  70  91 /  20  30  20  20
Marfa                          63  89  62  87 /  10  30  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           75  95  72  95 /  20  30  20  20
Odessa                         77  94  74  94 /  20  30  20  20
Wink                           76  97  73  97 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
320
FXUS64 KMAF 252001
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
301 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 PM CDT Monday...KMAF radar is showing
isolated/scattered thunderstorm activity moving southwest into the
northern tier of counties in the CWA.

Looks like the models do not have a good (or any) handle on the
convection moving southwest into the CWA. There was convection
last night to the north...the outflow boundary looks like it moved
south and is serving as the focus for the convective development.

A weak inverted trough will get trapped between two centers of the
subtropical ridge. One piece of the ridge will become centered
over Southern Nevada and the other piece will be along the
Southeast US Coast. Whereas the models are having difficulty with
the details including any boundaries from convection it looks like
the whole CWA will have the possibility of isolated/scattered
convection right thru Thursday. Temps will "cool" to near normal
for a change.

The ridge will begin to reassert itself starting Friday and
continuing thru the weekend. This will confine any thunderstorm
activity to the higher terrain to the south and west in upslope
flow and intense heating. Temps will also edge up to above normal
values by next weekend.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75  92  72  94 /  20  30  20  20
Carlsbad                       73  97  73  96 /  20  20  20  20
Dryden                         78  95  76  97 /  10  40  20  20
Fort Stockton                  73  94  72  94 /  10  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 70  88  69  89 /  10  20  20  20
Hobbs                          69  93  70  91 /  20  30  20  20
Marfa                          63  89  62  87 /  10  30  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           75  95  72  95 /  20  30  20  20
Odessa                         77  94  74  94 /  20  30  20  20
Wink                           76  97  73  97 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/33
306
FXUS64 KMAF 251700
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1200 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. A few thunderstorms may move
into southeast New Mexico this afternoon and this evening but
confidence was not high enough to mention at any of the terminals.
Winds will generally be easterly at 5 to 15 mph with an occasional
higher gust, especially this afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 551 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

A few thunderstorms will remain west of all area terminals early
this morning, but isolated storms will be possible again this
afternoon and evening. Since the probability of storms affecting
any terminals is low, will not make mention in any of the
forecasts.  VFR conditions will prevail otherwise.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

Changes are on the way, but first we`ve got to get through one
more hot day. The upper ridge, currently centered over northern
New Mexico, will continue to shift off to the west this week. This
will allow an inverted trough to move east along the Gulf Coast
and influence our weather the next several days.

Temperatures near 100 can be expected again today with an isolated
storm possible almost anywhere as mid level moisture begins to
increase. The inverted trough will move into Texas early Tuesday
bringing with it a better chance of rain and cooler temperatures
through the end of the week. Highs will likely stay near normal
while we see scattered showers and storms develop each afternoon.
Some of the storms may contain localized heavy rain as PWATs
increase over 1". Some models show the trough stalling over Texas
into the weekend as it becomes stuck in between two mid level
ridges. Will continue to watch the forecast trends and keep low
PoPs in the extended for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  92  71  92 /  20  30  20  30
Carlsbad                       74  97  73  93 /  20  20  20  30
Dryden                         78  95  75  95 /  20  40  20  30
Fort Stockton                  74  94  73  93 /  10  30  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 69  88  68  86 /  10  20  20  30
Hobbs                          70  93  70  89 /  20  30  20  30
Marfa                          62  89  60  87 /  10  30  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           74  95  72  94 /  10  30  20  30
Odessa                         76  94  73  93 /  10  30  20  30
Wink                           74  97  73  95 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99
540
FXUS64 KMAF 251051
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
551 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few thunderstorms will remain west of all area terminals early
this morning, but isolated storms will be possible again this
afternoon and evening. Since the probability of storms affecting
any terminals is low, will not make mention in any of the
forecasts.  VFR conditions will prevail otherwise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

Changes are on the way, but first we`ve got to get through one
more hot day. The upper ridge, currently centered over northern
New Mexico, will continue to shift off to the west this week. This
will allow an inverted trough to move east along the Gulf Coast
and influence our weather the next several days.

Temperatures near 100 can be expected again today with an isolated
storm possible almost anywhere as mid level moisture begins to
increase. The inverted trough will move into Texas early Tuesday
bringing with it a better chance of rain and cooler temperatures
through the end of the week. Highs will likely stay near normal
while we see scattered showers and storms develop each afternoon.
Some of the storms may contain localized heavy rain as PWATs
increase over 1". Some models show the trough stalling over Texas
into the weekend as it becomes stuck in between two mid level
ridges. Will continue to watch the forecast trends and keep low
PoPs in the extended for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     99  74  92  71 /  10  20  30  20
Carlsbad                      101  74  97  73 /  10  20  20  20
Dryden                        101  78  95  75 /  20  20  40  20
Fort Stockton                  99  74  94  73 /  10  10  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 93  69  88  68 /  10  10  20  20
Hobbs                          97  70  93  70 /  10  20  30  20
Marfa                          93  62  89  60 /  10  10  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           99  74  95  72 /  10  10  30  20
Odessa                         99  76  94  73 /  10  10  30  20
Wink                          101  74  97  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
727
FXUS64 KMAF 250805
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
305 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Changes are on the way, but first we`ve got to get through one more
hot day. The upper ridge, currently centered over northern New
Mexico, will continue to shift off to the west this week. This will
allow an inverted trough to move east along the Gulf Coast and
influence our weather the next several days.

Temperatures near 100 can be expected again today with an isolated
storm possible almost anywhere as mid level moisture begins to
increase. The inverted trough will move into Texas early Tuesday
bringing with it a better chance of rain and cooler temperatures
through the end of the week. Highs will likely stay near normal
while we see scattered showers and storms develop each afternoon.
Some of the storms may contain localized heavy rain as PWATs
increase over 1". Some models show the trough stalling over Texas
into the weekend as it becomes stuck in between two mid level
ridges. Will continue to watch the forecast trends and keep low
PoPs in the extended for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     99  74  92  71 /  10  20  30  20
Carlsbad                      101  74  97  73 /  10  20  20  20
Dryden                        101  78  95  75 /  20  20  40  20
Fort Stockton                  99  74  94  73 /  10  10  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 93  69  88  68 /  10  10  20  20
Hobbs                          97  70  93  70 /  10  20  30  20
Marfa                          93  62  89  60 /  10  10  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           99  74  95  72 /  10  10  30  20
Odessa                         99  76  94  73 /  10  10  30  20
Wink                          101  74  97  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
818
FXUS64 KMAF 250438
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1138 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide today and tonight.  Isolated
thunderstorms will likely form this afternoon, but probability is
too low to include at any terminal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  99  75  92 /   0  10  20  30
Carlsbad                       74 100  74  97 /  10  10  20  20
Dryden                         79 101  78  96 /   0  10  10  30
Fort Stockton                  75  97  73  94 /   0   0  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 72  92  70  88 /  10  10  10  20
Hobbs                          71  96  71  92 /   0   0  20  20
Marfa                          67  93  67  88 /  10  10  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           77  99  75  94 /   0   0  10  30
Odessa                         78  98  75  93 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           78 100  75  96 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
791
FXUS64 KMAF 242310
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail, with only a few gusts from the SE
near 20kts at FST, INK, HOB til 02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 PM CDT...yet another hot aftn with MAF at
98 degrees as of 2 pm. Radar is indc a couple of weak cells in the
Davis and Guadalupe Mtns.

Water Vapor Imagery continues to show the upper ridge centered
over Northern New Mexico slowly edging west. The flow aloft has
turned more northeast per KMAF VAD Wind Profile.

The upper ridge will continue to slowly retrograde west. An
inverted trof over the Gulf of Mexico and southeast US will move
west thru southern Texas on Tue/Wed under the ridge. As heights
and H85 temps lower temps will be a little cooler...to near if not
a couple of degrees below normal. As the inverted trof moves thru
southern TX...and with the mid/upper flow turning northerly
possibly bringing a weak front south there will be an increasing
chance of thunderstorms both Tuesday and Wednesday. Thunderstorm
chances will continue Thursday and Friday as weak impulses move
south into the CWA in the north to northeast flow aloft.

As the ridge builds east next weekend the Plains should be dry as
the flow aloft becomes more easterly. The chance of any convection
will be confined to the higher terrain in the upslope flow and
intense heating. With drier conditions temperatures should edge
back to above normal to close out July.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  99  75  92 /   0  10  20  30
Carlsbad                       74 100  74  97 /  10  10  20  20
Dryden                         79 101  78  96 /   0  10  10  30
Fort Stockton                  75  97  73  94 /   0   0  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 72  92  70  88 /  10  10  10  20
Hobbs                          71  96  71  92 /   0   0  20  20
Marfa                          67  93  67  88 /  10  10  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           77  99  75  94 /   0   0  10  30
Odessa                         78  98  75  93 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           78 100  75  96 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
718
FXUS64 KMAF 241943
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
243 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 PM CDT...yet another hot aftn with MAF at
98 degrees as of 2 pm. Radar is indc a couple of weak cells in the
Davis and Guadalupe Mtns.

Water Vapor Imagery continues to show the upper ridge centered
over Northern New Mexico slowly edging west. The flow aloft has
turned more northeast per KMAF VAD Wind Profile.

The upper ridge will continue to slowly retrograde west. An
inverted trof over the Gulf of Mexico and southeast US will move
west thru southern Texas on Tue/Wed under the ridge. As heights
and H85 temps lower temps will be a little cooler...to near if not
a couple of degrees below normal. As the inverted trof moves thru
southern TX...and with the mid/upper flow turning northerly
possibly bringing a weak front south there will be an increasing
chance of thunderstorms both Tuesday and Wednesday. Thunderstorm
chances will continue Thursday and Friday as weak impulses move
south into the CWA in the north to northeast flow aloft.

As the ridge builds east next weekend the Plains should be dry as
the flow aloft becomes more easterly. The chance of any convection
will be confined to the higher terrain in the upslope flow and
intense heating. With drier conditions temperatures should edge
back to above normal to close out July.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  99  75  92 /   0  10  20  30
Carlsbad                       74 100  74  97 /  10  10  20  20
Dryden                         79 101  78  96 /   0  10  10  30
Fort Stockton                  75  97  73  94 /   0   0  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 72  92  70  88 /  10  10  10  20
Hobbs                          71  96  71  92 /   0   0  20  20
Marfa                          67  93  67  88 /  10  10  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           77  99  75  94 /   0   0  10  30
Odessa                         78  98  75  93 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           78 100  75  96 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/33
208
FXUS64 KMAF 241643
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1143 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours under mostly clear skies.
Winds will generally be southeasterly at 5 to 15 mph with an
occasional higher gust.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 544 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Prevailing southeasterly winds will become gusty this morning
into early afternoon.  VFR will prevail throughout the forecast
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

Another couple of hot days ahead before cooler temperatures and a
better chance of rain arrive midweek. The upper ridge will
continue moving off to the west this week, but not before we see
temperatures near 100 both today and Monday. Other than an
isolated shower across the Davis Mountains this afternoon,
subsidence will continue to squash convection one more day. Look
for temperatures near 100 again Monday afternoon, but this may be
the last day we see this for the rest of the month. The upper
ridge will move far enough west that northerly mid level flow may
allow for convection to move south from the Panhandle late
tomorrow. This looks like the beginning of a fairly active week
ahead for the area.

An inverted trough now over the Western Atlantic will begin shifting
west and arrive in Texas late Monday. The trough moves closer to our
area midweek and rain chances look to increase quite a bit. It is
still uncertain how widespread convection will be given the differences
in the long range models. Even if we don`t see widespread rain,
clouds and moisture will keep temperatures down beginning Tuesday.
We may even see highs below normal for a change (something that
has not occurred all month).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                    100  76  98  73 /   0  10  10  20
Carlsbad                      103  74 100  75 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                        101  78  99  78 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                 102  75  97  74 /  10   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 98  72  91  69 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          99  71  95  71 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                          96  69  93  69 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          102  76 100  74 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                        101  77  98  75 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                          104  76  99  74 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
359
FXUS64 KMAF 241044
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
544 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Prevailing southeasterly winds will become gusty this morning
into early afternoon.  VFR will prevail throughout the forecast
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

Another couple of hot days ahead before cooler temperatures and a
better chance of rain arrive midweek. The upper ridge will
continue moving off to the west this week, but not before we see
temperatures near 100 both today and Monday. Other than an
isolated shower across the Davis Mountains this afternoon,
subsidence will continue to squash convection one more day. Look
for temperatures near 100 again Monday afternoon, but this may be
the last day we see this for the rest of the month. The upper
ridge will move far enough west that northerly mid level flow may
allow for convection to move south from the Panhandle late
tomorrow. This looks like the beginning of a fairly active week
ahead for the area.

An inverted trough now over the Western Atlantic will begin shifting
west and arrive in Texas late Monday. The trough moves closer to our
area midweek and rain chances look to increase quite a bit. It is
still uncertain how widespread convection will be given the differences
in the long range models. Even if we don`t see widespread rain,
clouds and moisture will keep temperatures down beginning Tuesday.
We may even see highs below normal for a change (something that
has not occurred all month).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                    100  76  98  73 /   0  10  10  20
Carlsbad                      103  74 100  75 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                        101  78  99  78 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                 102  75  97  74 /  10   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 98  72  91  69 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          99  71  95  71 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                          96  69  93  69 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          102  76 100  74 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                        101  77  98  75 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                          104  76  99  74 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
997
FXUS64 KMAF 240814
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
314 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Another couple of hot days ahead before cooler temperatures and a
better chance of rain arrive midweek. The upper ridge will
continue moving off to the west this week, but not before we see
temperatures near 100 both today and Monday. Other than an
isolated shower across the Davis Mountains this afternoon,
subsidence will continue to squash convection one more day. Look
for temperatures near 100 again Monday afternoon, but this may be
the last day we see this for the rest of the month. The upper
ridge will move far enough west that northerly mid level flow may
allow for convection to move south from the Panhandle late
tomorrow. This looks like the beginning of a fairly active week
ahead for the area.

An inverted trough now over the Western Atlantic will begin shifting
west and arrive in Texas late Monday. The trough moves closer to our
area midweek and rain chances look to increase quite a bit. It is
still uncertain how widespread convection will be given the differences
in the long range models. Even if we don`t see widespread rain,
clouds and moisture will keep temperatures down beginning Tuesday.
We may even see highs below normal for a change (something that
has not occurred all month).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                    100  76  98  73 /   0  10  10  20
Carlsbad                      103  74 100  75 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                        101  78  99  78 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                 102  75  97  74 /  10   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 98  72  91  69 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          99  71  95  71 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                          96  69  93  69 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          102  76 100  74 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                        101  77  98  75 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                          104  76  99  74 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
604
FXUS64 KMAF 240453
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1153 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will persist at all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas terminals today and tonight.  Southeast winds will become
gusty between 24/14Z and 24/19Z at most terminals, and remain that
way until around 25/00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77 100  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       72 104  73  99 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                         78 103  79 101 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  74 100  75  97 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 72  96  71  90 /   0  10  10  20
Hobbs                          70  98  70  95 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                          64  96  67  92 /  10  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           75 101  76  98 /   0  10   0  10
Odessa                         76 100  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
Wink                           75 102  76 100 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
895
FXUS64 KMAF 232244
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
544 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with southeasterly winds will continue through the
forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Saturday...Sounding like a broken
record this month...another hot day with above normal
temperatures across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. As of
2:00 pm CDT the temperature at MAF has reached 98 degrees.

Vis imagery does show a CU field over San Angelo`s CWA progressing
west in the low/mid level flow...however Water Vapor imagery
shows the atmosphere basically bone dry in the mid levels over
Central Texas west into Southeast New Mexico. With the subtropical
ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle southwest into Southeast
New Mexico there is subsidence over the CWA. In these conditions
it would be very difficult for any convection to get going.

The subtropical ridge will slowly retrograde to the four corners
region of the US by Tuesday. Lowering heights and H85 temps will
allow temperatures to drop a few degrees. By Monday...subsidence
will decrease with the thetae ridge edging closer. This could lead
to thunderstorms over the higher terrain...which will also be
aided by upslope flow and intense heating.

An inverted trof over the Southeast US and Gulf of Mexico
will move slowly west into South Texas by Tuesday...and will
slowly translate west across the southern portions of the state
Tuesday/Wednesday. This will give the CWA its best chance of more
widespread thunderstorm activity...even into the Plains along
with temperature dropping to near normal.

After the inverted trof passes to the west the subtropical ridge
will reassert itself over the area. This will lead to temps near
to a couple of degrees above normal along with thunderstorm
chances confined to the higher terrain.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77 100  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       72 104  73  99 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                         78 103  79 101 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  74 100  75  97 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 72  96  71  90 /   0  10  10  20
Hobbs                          70  98  70  95 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                          64  96  67  92 /  10  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           75 101  76  98 /   0  10   0  10
Odessa                         76 100  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
Wink                           75 102  76 100 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
039
FXUS64 KMAF 231900
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
200 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Saturday...Sounding like a broken
record this month...another hot day with above normal
temperatures across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. As of
2:00 pm CDT the temperature at MAF has reached 98 degrees.

Vis imagery does show a CU field over San Angelo`s CWA progressing
west in the low/mid level flow...however Water Vapor imagery
shows the atmosphere basically bone dry in the mid levels over
Central Texas west into Southeast New Mexico. With the subtropical
ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle southwest into Southeast
New Mexico there is subsidence over the CWA. In these conditions
it would be very difficult for any convection to get going.

The subtropical ridge will slowly retrograde to the four corners
region of the US by Tuesday. Lowering heights and H85 temps will
allow temperatures to drop a few degrees. By Monday...subsidence
will decrease with the thetae ridge edging closer. This could lead
to thunderstorms over the higher terrain...which will also be
aided by upslope flow and intense heating.

An inverted trof over the Southeast US and Gulf of Mexico
will move slowly west into South Texas by Tuesday...and will
slowly translate west across the southern portions of the state
Tuesday/Wednesday. This will give the CWA its best chance of more
widespread thunderstorm activity...even into the Plains along
with temperature dropping to near normal.

After the inverted trof passes to the west the subtropical ridge
will reassert itself over the area. This will lead to temps near
to a couple of degrees above normal along with thunderstorm
chances confined to the higher terrain.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77 100  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       72 104  73  99 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                         78 103  79 101 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  74 100  75  97 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 72  96  71  90 /   0  10  10  20
Hobbs                          70  98  70  95 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                          64  96  67  92 /  10  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           75 101  76  98 /   0  10   0  10
Odessa                         76 100  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
Wink                           75 102  76 100 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/33
270
FXUS64 KMAF 231700
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1200 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours under mostly clear skies.
Winds will generally be southeasterly at 5 to 15 mph with some
occasional higher gusts, especially this afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 601 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas terminals today and tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/

We are looking at continued hot and dry conditions through the
weekend. The upper ridge has started to shift off to the west, but
our region will remain under its influence. High temperatures will
reach near 100 most areas this weekend with mid 90`s in the
mountains. Most of the area will remain dry with an isolated storm
possible late Sunday afternoon.

Thicknesses begin to lower by Monday as the ridge continues to move
west and an inverted trough moves east into Texas. Increasing
moisture will help temperatures cool back toward normal. Rain
chances will increase much of next week as a moist, theta-e axis
develops over the area. Right now we are mostly looking at scattered
convection, but this is the best chance of rain we have seen for
several weeks.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     98  74  99  73 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                      103  72 104  73 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                        101  77 100  77 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                 100  74 100  74 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 95  71  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                          98  70  98  70 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                          95  66  97  68 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          101  74 101  75 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                        100  75 100  76 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                          102  73 101  74 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$


67/29
380
FXUS64 KMAF 231101
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
601 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas terminals today and tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/

We are looking at continued hot and dry conditions through the
weekend. The upper ridge has started to shift off to the west, but
our region will remain under its influence. High temperatures will
reach near 100 most areas this weekend with mid 90`s in the
mountains. Most of the area will remain dry with an isolated storm
possible late Sunday afternoon.

Thicknesses begin to lower by Monday as the ridge continues to move
west and an inverted trough moves east into Texas. Increasing
moisture will help temperatures cool back toward normal. Rain
chances will increase much of next week as a moist, theta-e axis
develops over the area. Right now we are mostly looking at scattered
convection, but this is the best chance of rain we have seen for
several weeks.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     98  74  99  73 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                      103  72 104  73 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                        101  77 100  77 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                 100  74 100  74 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 95  71  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                          98  70  98  70 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                          95  66  97  68 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          101  74 101  75 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                        100  75 100  76 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                          102  73 101  74 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
894
FXUS64 KMAF 230813
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
313 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

We are looking at continued hot and dry conditions through the
weekend. The upper ridge has started to shift off to the west, but
our region will remain under its influence. High temperatures will
reach near 100 most areas this weekend with mid 90`s in the
mountains. Most of the area will remain dry with an isolated storm
possible late Sunday afternoon.

Thicknesses begin to lower by Monday as the ridge continues to move
west and an inverted trough moves east into Texas. Increasing
moisture will help temperatures cool back toward normal. Rain
chances will increase much of next week as a moist, theta-e axis
develops over the area. Right now we are mostly looking at scattered
convection, but this is the best chance of rain we have seen for
several weeks.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     98  74  99  73 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                      103  72 104  73 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                        101  77 100  77 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                 100  74 100  74 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 95  71  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                          98  70  98  70 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                          95  66  97  68 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          101  74 101  75 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                        100  75 100  76 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                          102  73 101  74 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
150
FXUS64 KMAF 230501
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1201 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation forecast is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A persistent forecast will continue today, which means VFR
conditions for all aviation interests across southeast New Mexico
and west Texas through tonight. Prevailing surface winds will be
southeasterly, for the most part, with a few higher gusts at any
of the terminals of 20 to 21kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75 100  76  99 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       71 102  73 102 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         77 101  78 102 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  74  99  74 100 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 71  96  72  95 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          69  98  71  97 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          63  95  65  95 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           74 101  75 101 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         75  99  76 100 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           74 102  75 102 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
572
FXUS64 KMAF 222248
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
548 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Winds will remain
out of the southeast with sustained speeds generally 12kt or less.
Gusts to 15-20kt may persist the first few hours of the forecast
period, but are expected to diminish overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 232 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 PM CDT Friday...as has been the case all
July above normal temperatures are the unfortunate rule. As of 2
PM CDT the temperature was 97 degrees at MAF.

Water Vapor Imagery and GOES High Density Winds show the center of
the subtropical ridge over the northern Texas Panhandle.
Increasing heights and H85 temps will lead to aftn highs around...
if not a tick over 100 degrees thru the weekend. The exception
will be the mountains where aftn highs will be in the 90s.
Subsidence from the ridge will keep the CWA dry thru the weekend.

The ridge will slowly inch its way west next week...to near the
Four Corners area of the US. This will lead to "cooler"
temperatures next week...a couple of degrees above normal instead
of the tiresome 100+ degree readings that have been prevalent this
month as heights and H85 temps lower. Moisture will be on the
increase as well. Convection will be on the uptick...particularly
in the mountains with upslope flow and intense heating. The best
chance of any convection in the Plains will be on Tuesday as an
inverted trough moves west of the Southeast US undercutting the
subtropical ridge.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75 100  76  99 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       71 102  73 102 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         77 101  78 102 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  74  99  74 100 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 71  96  72  95 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          69  98  71  97 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          63  95  65  95 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           74 101  75 101 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         75  99  76 100 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           74 102  75 102 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
754
FXUS64 KMAF 221932
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
232 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 PM CDT Friday...as has been the case all
July above normal temperatures are the unfortunate rule. As of 2
PM CDT the temperature was 97 degrees at MAF.

Water Vapor Imagery and GOES High Density Winds show the center of
the subtropical ridge over the northern Texas Panhandle.
Increasing heights and H85 temps will lead to aftn highs around...
if not a tick over 100 degrees thru the weekend. The exception
will be the mountains where aftn highs will be in the 90s.
Subsidence from the ridge will keep the CWA dry thru the weekend.

The ridge will slowly inch its way west next week...to near the
Four Corners area of the US. This will lead to "cooler"
temperatures next week...a couple of degrees above normal instead
of the tiresome 100+ degree readings that have been prevalent this
month as heights and H85 temps lower. Moisture will be on the
increase as well. Convection will be on the uptick...particularly
in the mountains with upslope flow and intense heating. The best
chance of any convection in the Plains will be on Tuesday as an
inverted trough moves west of the Southeast US undercutting the
subtropical ridge.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75 100  76  99 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       71 102  73 102 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         77 101  78 102 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  74  99  74 100 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 71  96  72  95 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          69  98  71  97 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          63  95  65  95 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           74 101  75 101 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         75  99  76 100 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           74 102  75 102 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/33
824
FXUS64 KMAF 221739
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1239 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 22/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions and southeasterly winds will prevail across area
terminals through 23/18Z. Winds will be gusty this afternoon at
KFST, KHOB, KINK, and KMAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     98  74  97  74 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                      102  72 102  74 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                        100  77  99  77 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  99  74  99  74 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 93  70  95  71 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          98  69  98  71 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          94  67  97  67 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport          101  74 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         99  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          101  73 101  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/33/70
312
FXUS64 KMAF 221045
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
545 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected today and tonight at all area
terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 259 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Don`t look for much to change into this weekend as the upper ridge
continues to dominate our weather. Mid-level heights and
temperatures increase today into the weekend before a cooling
trend begins next week. Temperatures will be above normal through
Sunday with highs mostly near 100, except for the higher terrain.
The ridge will also suppress most if not all convection the next
few days.

Some relief may be on the way early next week as the center of the
upper ridge shifts west toward the Four Corners. An inverted
trough will also move east along the Gulf Coast making its way to
Texas by midweek. Increasing moisture and lower heights will allow
for temperatures to cool back toward normal. We could also see an
increase in convection so stay tuned!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     98  74  97  74 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                      102  72 102  74 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                        100  77  99  77 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  99  74  99  74 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 93  70  95  71 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          98  69  98  71 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          94  67  97  67 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport          101  74 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         99  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          101  73 101  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
985
FXUS64 KMAF 220759
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
259 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Don`t look for much to change into this weekend as the upper ridge
continues to dominate our weather. Mid-level heights and
temperatures increase today into the weekend before a cooling
trend begins next week. Temperatures will be above normal through
Sunday with highs mostly near 100, except for the higher terrain.
The ridge will also suppress most if not all convection the next
few days.

Some relief may be on the way early next week as the center of the
upper ridge shifts west toward the Four Corners. An inverted
trough will also move east along the Gulf Coast making its way to
Texas by midweek. Increasing moisture and lower heights will allow
for temperatures to cool back toward normal. We could also see an
increase in convection so stay tuned!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     98  74  97  74 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                      102  72 102  74 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                        100  77  99  77 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  99  74  99  74 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 93  70  95  71 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          98  69  98  71 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          94  67  97  67 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport          101  74 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         99  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          101  73 101  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
567
FXUS64 KMAF 220515
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1215 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected during the next 24 hours at all area
terminals.  Thunderstorms are not even expected over the higher
terrain this afternoon/evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76 101  76  99 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       71 103  72 101 /  10   0  10   0
Dryden                         75 103  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  73  99  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  95  71  90 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          69  98  69  97 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          61  93  62  89 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           75 100  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         76  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74 102  75 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
909
FXUS64 KMAF 212326
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
626 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. South to southeast
winds around 10-12kt are also expected to continue, and could
gust to around 20kt this evening and during the day on Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Hot and dry conditions are expected to dominate through the next
week. The southern high plains will remain under the influence of
a broad subtropical ridge (this morning centered over southwestern
Oklahoma). The forecast hinges upon forecast wobbles of this high
and whether the high will move enough north or weaken to allow for
an increase in subtropical easterlies and therefore a moderation
in temperatures. The best time period for this will be next Monday
where a combination of easterlies and moisture may be enough to
light up the elevated heat sources and the adjacent plains.  The
remainder of southeastern New Mexico and west Texas will miss out
on some badly needed rain, unfortunately.

Hard to say right now whether the subtropical easterlies will have
that much influence on temperatures or that guidance is trending
toward climatology. In any event, after highs in the mid 90s to
near 105 Friday through Sunday, highs will fall back about five
degrees. GFS MOS guidance has been doing well of late,
particularly with morning lows, so have trended toward its
solution throughout.

Cooler temperatures and an increase in rain chances will get here.
Someday. Until then...stay cool and hydrated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75 101  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       75 102  71 103 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         77 102  75 103 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  74  98  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  94  71  95 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          68  99  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          58  92  61  93 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           75 101  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         76  99  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           75 101  74 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
182
FXUS64 KMAF 212019
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
319 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Hot and dry conditions are expected to dominate through the next
week. The southern high plains will remain under the influence of
a broad subtropical ridge (this morning centered over southwestern
Oklahoma). The forecast hinges upon forecast wobbles of this high
and whether the high will move enough north or weaken to allow for
an increase in subtropical easterlies and therefore a moderation
in temperatures. The best time period for this will be next Monday
where a combination of easterlies and moisture may be enough to
light up the elevated heat sources and the adjacent plains.  The
remainder of southeastern New Mexico and west Texas will miss out
on some badly needed rain, unfortunately.

Hard to say right now whether the subtropical easterlies will have
that much influence on temperatures or that guidance is trending
toward climatology. In any event, after highs in the mid 90s to
near 105 Friday through Sunday, highs will fall back about five
degrees. GFS MOS guidance has been doing well of late,
particularly with morning lows, so have trended toward its
solution throughout.

Cooler temperatures and an increase in rain chances will get here.
Someday. Until then...stay cool and hydrated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75 101  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       75 102  71 103 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         77 102  75 103 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  74  98  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  94  71  95 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          68  99  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          58  92  61  93 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           75 101  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         76  99  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           75 101  74 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/70
930
FXUS64 KMAF 211703
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1203 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and no significant weather are expected across
southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas through Friday morning.
Winds at area terminals will be generally south to southeast at
around 10 knots. Gusts to around 20 knots are possible mainly this
afternoon though lingering into the evening at some locations.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 553 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions to prevail at all terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 3:15 AM CDT Thursday...the record setting hot
July continues. The high on Wednesday was 98 degrees at Midland
Intl Air and Space Port (MAF)...which makes it every day this
month that the high temperature was above normal (normal high is
95 degrees). The record for the number of above normal high
temperature days for July is 30...set in the brutally hot summers
of 1998 and 2011. With above normal temperatures expected for the
next seven days...at least...that record could unfortunately be
within reach.

Water vapor imagery and GOES High Density Winds show the center of
the upper ridge over Oklahoma. Models ever so slowly retrograde
the ridge west thru the weekend. The deep layer easterly flow
will become more north to northeast. This will result in hotter
temperatures...around 100 in the Plains...100-105 in the Pecos and
Rio Grande River Valleys...and the 90s in the mtns. Convection
will mainly be west of the CWA in the Sacramento Mtns. On Sunday
the thetae ridge will drift east...and with good upslope flow and
intense heating the threat of convection will increase over the
Guadalupe and Davis Mtns Sunday night and Monday.

Models place the center of the Upper Ridge over the four corners
region of the US from Monday through most of next week. This will
lead to northeast flow aloft. The thetae ridge will be over the
western portions of the CWA...and combined with upslope flow and
intense heating will lead to the threat of convection each
aftn/evening mainly over the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns.
Temperatures next week are expected to remain above normal.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74 101  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       72 103  72 102 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         77 101  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  74 100  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  95  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          70 100  70  99 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          62  93  63  94 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           74 101  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         75 101  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           75 105  76 104 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/05
668
FXUS64 KMAF 211053
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
553 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions to prevail at all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 3:15 AM CDT Thursday...the record setting hot
July continues. The high on Wednesday was 98 degrees at Midland
Intl Air and Space Port (MAF)...which makes it every day this
month that the high temperature was above normal (normal high is
95 degrees). The record for the number of above normal high
temperature days for July is 30...set in the brutally hot summers
of 1998 and 2011. With above normal temperatures expected for the
next seven days...at least...that record could unfortunately be
within reach.

Water vapor imagery and GOES High Density Winds show the center of
the upper ridge over Oklahoma. Models ever so slowly retrograde
the ridge west thru the weekend. The deep layer easterly flow
will become more north to northeast. This will result in hotter
temperatures...around 100 in the Plains...100-105 in the Pecos and
Rio Grande River Valleys...and the 90s in the mtns. Convection
will mainly be west of the CWA in the Sacramento Mtns. On Sunday
the thetae ridge will drift east...and with good upslope flow and
intense heating the threat of convection will increase over the
Guadalupe and Davis Mtns Sunday night and Monday.

Models place the center of the Upper Ridge over the four corners
region of the US from Monday through most of next week. This will
lead to northeast flow aloft. The thetae ridge will be over the
western portions of the CWA...and combined with upslope flow and
intense heating will lead to the threat of convection each
aftn/evening mainly over the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns.
Temperatures next week are expected to remain above normal.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     99  74 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                      101  72 103  72 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                        101  77 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  99  74 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 92  71  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          98  70 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          93  62  93  63 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          100  74 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         99  75 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          103  75 105  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29
197
FXUS64 KMAF 210831
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
331 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 3:15 AM CDT Thursday...the record setting hot
July continues. The high on Wednesday was 98 degrees at Midland
Intl Air and Space Port (MAF)...which makes it every day this
month that the high temperature was above normal (normal high is
95 degrees). The record for the number of above normal high
temperature days for July is 30...set in the brutally hot summers
of 1998 and 2011. With above normal temperatures expected for the
next seven days...at least...that record could unfortunately be
within reach.

Water vapor imagery and GOES High Density Winds show the center of
the upper ridge over Oklahoma. Models ever so slowly retrograde
the ridge west thru the weekend. The deep layer easterly flow
will become more north to northeast. This will result in hotter
temperatures...around 100 in the Plains...100-105 in the Pecos and
Rio Grande River Valleys...and the 90s in the mtns. Convection
will mainly be west of the CWA in the Sacramento Mtns. On Sunday
the thetae ridge will drift east...and with good upslope flow and
intense heating the threat of convection will increase over the
Guadalupe and Davis Mtns Sunday night and Monday.

Models place the center of the Upper Ridge over the four corners
region of the US from Monday through most of next week. This will
lead to northeast flow aloft. The thetae ridge will be over the
western portions of the CWA...and combined with upslope flow and
intense heating will lead to the threat of convection each
aftn/evening mainly over the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns.
Temperatures next week are expected to remain above normal.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     99  74 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                      101  72 103  72 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                        101  77 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  99  74 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 92  71  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          98  70 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          93  62  93  63 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          100  74 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         99  75 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          103  75 105  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/33
300
FXUS64 KMAF 210452
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1152 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals.

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99
500
FXUS64 KMAF 202308
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
608 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with mostly clear skies are expected at the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours.
Isolated thunderstorms should remain west of the terminals, in the
mountains. Winds will generally be southeast at 5 to 15 mph with
some occasional higher gusts at times.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 214 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Another day of above normal temperatures is expected today with a
broad upper ridge centered over the southcentral conus. Not
expecting much in the way of storms and rain across the area today
except maybe an isolated storm or two across the higher terrain.

Temperatures may be a degree or two warmer tomorrow than today as
850 mb temps warm slightly; otherwise, not much change is expected
from today.  850 mb temps increase slightly more on Friday as the
upper ridge gets somewhat flattened by upper troughs/shortwaves
moving over the northern conus.  Saturday and Sunday will be similar
to Friday with high temps across the Permian Basin in the upper 90s
to around 100 degrees.  Temperatures are expected to cool into the
mid 90s across the Permian Basin on Monday as the surface winds
become more southeasterly bringing in more moisture.  Models are
also indicating an increased chance of precipitation on Monday.
Temperatures will continue to be slightly above normal through the
middle of next week with a slight chance of rain/storms across
portions of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     97  74  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       97  72 100  70 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         97  76  99  76 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  96  74  98  72 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 90  69  91  69 /  20  10  10  10
Hobbs                          95  69  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          90  62  91  60 /  20  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           98  75  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         96  74  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          100  75 101  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/80
907
FXUS64 KMAF 201914
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
214 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Another day of above normal temperatures is expected today with a
broad upper ridge centered over the southcentral conus. Not
expecting much in the way of storms and rain across the area today
except maybe an isolated storm or two across the higher terrain.

Temperatures may be a degree or two warmer tomorrow than today as
850 mb temps warm slightly; otherwise, not much change is expected
from today.  850 mb temps increase slightly more on Friday as the
upper ridge gets somewhat flattened by upper troughs/shortwaves
moving over the northern conus.  Saturday and Sunday will be similar
to Friday with high temps across the Permian Basin in the upper 90s
to around 100 degrees.  Temperatures are expected to cool into the
mid 90s across the Permian Basin on Monday as the surface winds
become more southeasterly bringing in more moisture.  Models are
also indicating an increased chance of precipitation on Monday.
Temperatures will continue to be slightly above normal through the
middle of next week with a slight chance of rain/storms across
portions of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  99  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       72 100  70 101 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         76  99  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  74  98  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 69  91  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          69  97  68  98 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          62  91  60  93 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           75  99  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         74  98  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           75 101  73 103 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/80
063
FXUS64 KMAF 201735
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1235 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 20/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across all area terminals through 21/18Z.
Gusty south to southeast winds will decrease after sunset (except
at FST where some channeling of the LLJ to the surface occurs), then
pick up again during the mid morning hours. Isolated convection will
remain over the mountains and away from area terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 601 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 3:00 AM CDT Wednesday...The anomalous and
record breaking (so far) hot July just keeps on rolling with
above normal temperatures expected for AT LEAST the next seven
days across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

Little to no change from previous forecast thinking. Water vapor
imagery and GOES High Density Winds clearly show the center of the
upper ridge over the Southern Plains...in particular Oklahoma. The
ridge will ever so slowly build west over the next seven days. The
CWA will be generally in a deep layer east to northeast flow. This
will result in above normal temps...at or near 100 in the Plains...
100-105 in the Pecos and Rio Grande River Valleys...and the 90s in
the mountains. Any thunderstorm activity will be confined to the
Guadalupe and Sacramento Mountains with the upslope flow and
intense heating...with an outside shot of convection in the Davis
Mountains. Looking further out in the extended models show little
change in the current weather pattern thru the end of July.

Strobin

Climate...Some fun (hot) July 1-19, 2016 record breaking climate
facts for Midland, Texas.

Average Maximum Temperature (Normal for July is 95 degrees):
Rank    Value    Year
  1     102.8    2016
  2     101.1    1964
  3     100.5    1998
  4     100.2    1989
  5      99.7    2011

Average Minimum Temperature (Normal for July is 70 degrees):
Rank    Value    Year
  1      75.7    2016
  2      73.7    1964
  3      73.6    1998
  4      73.4    2000
  5      73.3    2011

Average Temperature (Normal for July is 82 degrees):
Rank    Value    Year
  1      89.3    2016
  2      87.4    1964
  3      87.0    1998
  4      86.5    2011
  5      85.6    2001

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     97  75  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       97  71  99  70 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         97  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  96  72  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 90  68  91  69 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          95  69  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          90  61  91  60 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           98  73  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         96  74  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          100  75 101  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/80/70
646
FXUS64 KMAF 201101
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
601 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 3:00 AM CDT Wednesday...The anomalous and
record breaking (so far) hot July just keeps on rolling with
above normal temperatures expected for AT LEAST the next seven
days across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

Little to no change from previous forecast thinking. Water vapor
imagery and GOES High Density Winds clearly show the center of the
upper ridge over the Southern Plains...in particular Oklahoma. The
ridge will ever so slowly build west over the next seven days. The
CWA will be generally in a deep layer east to northeast flow. This
will result in above normal temps...at or near 100 in the Plains...
100-105 in the Pecos and Rio Grande River Valleys...and the 90s in
the mountains. Any thunderstorm activity will be confined to the
Guadalupe and Sacramento Mountains with the upslope flow and
intense heating...with an outside shot of convection in the Davis
Mountains. Looking further out in the extended models show little
change in the current weather pattern thru the end of July.

Strobin

Climate...Some fun (hot) July 1-19, 2016 record breaking climate
facts for Midland, Texas.

Average Maximum Temperature (Normal for July is 95 degrees):
Rank    Value    Year
  1     102.8    2016
  2     101.1    1964
  3     100.5    1998
  4     100.2    1989
  5      99.7    2011

Average Minimum Temperature (Normal for July is 70 degrees):
Rank    Value    Year
  1      75.7    2016
  2      73.7    1964
  3      73.6    1998
  4      73.4    2000
  5      73.3    2011

Average Temperature (Normal for July is 82 degrees):
Rank    Value    Year
  1      89.3    2016
  2      87.4    1964
  3      87.0    1998
  4      86.5    2011
  5      85.6    2001

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     97  75  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       97  71  99  70 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         97  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  96  72  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 90  68  91  69 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          95  69  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          90  61  91  60 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           98  73  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         96  74  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          100  75 101  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/99/
662
FXUS64 KMAF 200833
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
333 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 3:00 AM CDT Wednesday...The anomalous and
record breaking (so far) hot July just keeps on rolling with
above normal temperatures expected for AT LEAST the next seven
days across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

Little to no change from previous forecast thinking. Water vapor
imagery and GOES High Density Winds clearly show the center of the
upper ridge over the Southern Plains...in particular Oklahoma. The
ridge will ever so slowly build west over the next seven days. The
CWA will be generally in a deep layer east to northeast flow. This
will result in above normal temps...at or near 100 in the Plains...
100-105 in the Pecos and Rio Grande River Valleys...and the 90s in
the mountains. Any thunderstorm activity will be confined to the
Guadalupe and Sacramento Mountains with the upslope flow and
intense heating...with an outside shot of convection in the Davis
Mountains. Looking further out in the extended models show little
change in the current weather pattern thru the end of July.

Strobin

&&

.Climate...Some fun (hot) July 1-19, 2016 record breaking climate
facts for Midland, Texas.

Average Maximum Temperature (Normal for July is 95 degrees):
Rank    Value    Year
  1     102.8    2016
  2     101.1    1964
  3     100.5    1998
  4     100.2    1989
  5      99.7    2011

Average Minimum Temperature (Normal for July is 70 degrees):
Rank    Value    Year
  1      75.7    2016
  2      73.7    1964
  3      73.6    1998
  4      73.4    2000
  5      73.3    2011

Average Temperature (Normal for July is 82 degrees):
Rank    Value    Year
  1      89.3    2016
  2      87.4    1964
  3      87.0    1998
  4      86.5    2011
  5      85.6    2001

Strobin

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     97  75  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       97  71  99  70 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         97  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  96  72  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 90  68  91  69 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          95  69  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          90  61  91  60 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           98  73  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         96  74  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          100  75 101  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/33
027
FXUS64 KMAF 200441
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1141 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will continue. Gusty winds during the afternoon
will subside by evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  77  98  76 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       97  72  97  71 /  10   0  10  10
Dryden                         98  79  97  76 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  96  73  95  72 /  10   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 89  68  91  68 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          94  70  95  69 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          90  63  90  61 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           97  75  98  74 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         96  75  97  74 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                          100  76  99  75 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/99/
805
FXUS64 KMAF 192339
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
639 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with decreasing cloud cover through the evening. Brisk SE wind
should slowly decrease overnight too before picking back up
tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 214 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The subtropical ridge is centered INVOF OK/AR line with ely flow
across TX. As such the moist axis/theta-e ridge is well w across
AZ/W NM. This will mostly be the pattern thru the work week,
although the subtropical ridge will transition wwd starting Thur.
The end result will be the same, above normal temps and mostly dry
conditions (a few showers across the w today). In fact by
Thur/Fri when 7h temps start their increasing trend the SB LI`s
increase to +2 to +4. The forecast is largely one of persistence
with a slight uptrend in temps Thur/Fri in a near homogeneous
atmosphere. By next weekend the theta-e ridge axis will have a
chance to edge ewd possibly bringing some precip back to the wrn
1/3 or so of the CWFA.

CLIMATE...
How hot has it been this month? When we considered the average
monthly temperature (average of daily high/daily lows) Midland
Intl is on track to be the hottest on record. As of yesterday
morning the average daily temperature was 89.5, about 7.6 above
normal. So far the average high temp for July is 103.1 and in
2011 the average high for July was 99.8 and July of 1998 was
100.2. The record of data goes back to 1930.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77  98  76  99 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       72  97  71  99 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         79  97  76 101 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  73  95  72  97 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 68  91  68  91 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                          70  95  69  97 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                          63  90  61  91 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           75  98  74  99 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         75  97  74  98 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           76  99  75 100 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
097
FXUS64 KMAF 191914
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
214 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The subtropical ridge is centered INVOF OK/AR line with ely flow
across TX. As such the moist axis/theta-e ridge is well w across
AZ/W NM. This will mostly be the pattern thru the work week,
although the subtropical ridge will transition wwd starting Thur.
The end result will be the same, above normal temps and mostly dry
conditions (a few showers across the w today). In fact by
Thur/Fri when 7h temps start their increasing trend the SB LI`s
increase to +2 to +4. The forecast is largely one of persistence
with a slight uptrend in temps Thur/Fri in a near homogeneous
atmosphere. By next weekend the theta-e ridge axis will have a
chance to edge ewd possibly bringing some precip back to the wrn
1/3 or so of the CWFA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
How hot has it been this month? When we considered the average
monthly temperature (average of daily high/daily lows) Midland
Intl is on track to be the hottest on record. As of yesterday
morning the average daily temperature was 89.5, about 7.6 above
normal. So far the average high temp for July is 103.1 and in
2011 the average high for July was 99.8 and July of 1998 was
100.2. The record of data goes back to 1930.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77  98  76  99 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       72  97  71  99 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         79  97  76 101 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  73  95  72  97 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 68  91  68  91 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                          70  95  69  97 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                          63  90  61  91 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           75  98  74  99 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         75  97  74  98 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           76  99  75 100 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
590
FXUS64 KMAF 191729
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1229 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 19/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

SIG WX NIL through the next 24 hours with VFR conditions prevailing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 19/12Z forecast discussion below.

AVIATION...

Quiet conditions prevail across west Texas and southeastern New
Mexico this morning.  VFR conditions are expected at all area
terminals through the next 24 hours. SSE winds of 11-14 kts
sustained with gusts to near 22 kts are possible at all terminals
except KCNM by midday, with winds lying down an hour or so after
sunset. A weak disturbance approaching from the southeast will
bring an uptick in mid/high cloudiness during the overnight
hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 3:00 AM CDT Tuesday...Pretty mundane pattern
for the CWA this morning with no shower activity and little in
the way of clouds.

Monday (June 18) was the first day that MAF didn`t reach the 100
degree mark since June 9. Of course with a high of 99 it really
didn`t feel any cooler.

Ridging continues to be centered over the Southern Plains...with a
deep layer east to northeast flow over West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico. Latest KMAF VAD wind profile shows this flow clearly.
Ridging will remain centered over the Southern Plains north of
the CWA thru the week...continuing the deep layer mainly easterly
flow. This will result in dry weather (if not a bit muggy) along
with temps a little above normal. There could be an isolated
storm over the mtns...but have elected not to put in the forecast
for now. Best chance of convection will be over the Sacramento
Mtns. Temps should stay below the century mark across the Permian
Basin and the Low Rolling Plains and a little above 100 degrees
in the Pecos and Rio Grande River Valleys.

The ridge will edge west over the weekend bumping up the temps a
couple of degrees. High temps could top out around 100 once again
in the Permian Basin over the weekend with no precip expected.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  75  96  74 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       97  71  98  70 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         98  76  97  73 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  96  72  97  71 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 89  67  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          94  69  95  68 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          90  63  90  62 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           97  73  97  73 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         96  74  97  74 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                          100  76 100  73 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/49/70

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