Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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208
FXUS64 KMAF 300528
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS PECOS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED
THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO OUR EAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
OVERNIGHT. UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED IF THESE STORMS MOVE TOWARD
KMAF.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29
778
FXUS64 KMAF 292326
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SE NM... HAVE
INCLUDED TEMP TSRA AT CNM AND HOB BUT REMOVED IT FROM MAF AS NOT
CONFIDENT WILL MAKE IT TO THERE. WIND ERRATIC AND GUSTY NEAR ANY
STORM OTHERWISE IT WILL BE LIGHT SE TONIGHT AND GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 155 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY BETWEEN AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UTAH AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SEASONAL UNDER THIS REGIME...BOTH HIGHS
AND LOWS...BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ALONG WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON DURING MAX HEATING.  THERE ARE ALSO A COUPLE OF LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES WHICH WERE NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DRIFTING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN...SO WILL ADD ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR
LOCATIONS WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES MAY RESIDE THROUGH MAX HEATING.
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MOIST ABIABATIC...SO
TEMP/DWPT SPREADS AROUND 30 DEGREES MAY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS FROM
A FEW OF THE STORMS.  ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...IF NOT ON THE
CAPROCK IN SE NM...WITH A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS POSSIBLY
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  SINCE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS TRANSLATING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH COLORADO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO PROVIDE MID
LEVEL SUPPORT...AND A MODEST H3 JET OF 60KT NOSING INTO THE
AREA...WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...BUT
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.  SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...BUT OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 TO 40KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.


IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND A BIT FARTHER EAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...SO RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING VERY GOOD...WITH
PERHAPS ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  ON
THURSDAY...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  IF
THIS IS THE CASE...WE MAY SEE A REPEAT OF TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF DISORGANIZED STORMS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.  WILL KEEP A CHANCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT NOT INCREASE POPS
TOO MUCH DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF FICKLE SUMMER FEATURES IN
MAINLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT.  RAIN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT...WILL
BE KEPT IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS...AND OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
320
FXUS64 KMAF 291855
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
155 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY BETWEEN AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UTAH AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SEASONAL UNDER THIS REGIME...BOTH HIGHS
AND LOWS...BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ALONG WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON DURING MAX HEATING.  THERE ARE ALSO A COUPLE OF LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES WHICH WERE NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DRIFTING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN...SO WILL ADD ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR
LOCATIONS WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES MAY RESIDE THROUGH MAX HEATING.
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MOIST ABIABATIC...SO
TEMP/DWPT SPREADS AROUND 30 DEGREES MAY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS FROM
A FEW OF THE STORMS.  ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...IF NOT ON THE
CAPROCK IN SE NM...WITH A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS POSSIBLY
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  SINCE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS TRANSLATING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH COLORADO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO PROVIDE MID
LEVEL SUPPORT...AND A MODEST H3 JET OF 60KT NOSING INTO THE
AREA...WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...BUT
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.  SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...BUT OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 TO 40KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.


IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND A BIT FARTHER EAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...SO RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING VERY GOOD...WITH
PERHAPS ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  ON
THURSDAY...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  IF
THIS IS THE CASE...WE MAY SEE A REPEAT OF TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF DISORGANIZED STORMS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.  WILL KEEP A CHANCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT NOT INCREASE POPS
TOO MUCH DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF FICKLE SUMMER FEATURES IN
MAINLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT.  RAIN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT...WILL
BE KEPT IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS...AND OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  71  94  72  94  /  30   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    70  95  68  97  /  20  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                      73  93  71  92  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  92  69  93  /  20  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  85  65  90  /  20  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                       66  91  66  93  /  40   0   0   0
MARFA TX                       61  86  58  88  /  20  10  20   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        70  93  71  94  /  30   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      70  93  71  93  /  30  10   0   0
WINK TX                        71  94  71  98  /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/67
765
FXUS64 KMAF 291709
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1202 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AROUND 00Z
IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.  TIMING OF THE CONVECTION IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. STORMS COULD ALSO AFFECT INK BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. DESPITE SE LOW LEVEL FLOW
85H TEMPS WILL INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO AND A POCKET OF RELATIVELY
LOWER SURFACE DWPNT AIR WILL MATERIALIZE (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) FROM
FAR W TX INTO WRN/CNTRL PB. AS SUCH HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SEASONAL
ACROSS THE PB - M90S. PRIOR TO 00Z CONVECTIVE CONCERNS WILL BE
LIMITED, BUT NON-ZERO ACROSS THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES FROM DAVIS
MTNS SWD. MEANWHILE TO THE N-NW A CLUSTER OF TSTMS/LOOSELY ORGANIZED
MCS WILL BE TRACKING SWD ARRIVING IN N-NW CWFA AROUND 00Z. 3H JET
MAX IS STILL A PLAYER, BUT 00Z MODEL RUNS DEPICT IT TO BE WEAKER,
WITH ONLY A HINT OF SLY LLJ, AND SAID DRIER SURFACE AIR, THUS THE
LOOSELY ORGANIZED. TTU WRF MODEL CONTINUES TO BE PRETTY OPTIMISTIC
WITH TSTMS AND MOVES THEM THRU BETWEEN 00Z IN THE N TO 04Z IN THE
W/S PB, THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS AFTER
06Z. IN PART BASED ON DRIER AIR MENTIONED EARLIER THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME OUTFLOW WINDS OF WHICH THE TTU WRF PICKED UP ON
ACROSS WRN PB - 30KTS. MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY BUT DOES LOOK A LITTLE
COOLER. INCREASED SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL
ATTEMPT TO KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK ACROSS THE PB, BUT NOT SO MUCH
ACROSS THE W. LOW ORDER POPS ONLY FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY FOR THE W/SW
AND N WITH A WEAKNESS IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD E-SE CLOSER TO THE AREA SUNDAY/MONDAY, BUT THE AXIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN N WHICH MAY RESULT IN MORE OF A SLIGHTLY COOLER ELY MID LEVEL
WIND VICE A NE MID LEVEL WIND.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
877
FXUS64 KMAF 291136
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AOB 12KT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN MAINLY AFTER
30/00Z, WHICH COULD AFFECT KCNM, KHOB, KINK, AND KMAF. HOWEVER,
HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING/COVERAGE. HOWEVER, IF STORMS DEVELOP,
GUSTY WIND AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WILL DEFER TO
LATER SHIFTS FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. DESPITE SE LOW LEVEL FLOW
85H TEMPS WILL INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO AND A POCKET OF RELATIVELY
LOWER SURFACE DWPNT AIR WILL MATERIALIZE (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) FROM
FAR W TX INTO WRN/CNTRL PB. AS SUCH HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SEASONAL
ACROSS THE PB - M90S. PRIOR TO 00Z CONVECTIVE CONCERNS WILL BE
LIMITED, BUT NON-ZERO ACROSS THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES FROM DAVIS
MTNS SWD. MEANWHILE TO THE N-NW A CLUSTER OF TSTMS/LOOSELY ORGANIZED
MCS WILL BE TRACKING SWD ARRIVING IN N-NW CWFA AROUND 00Z. 3H JET
MAX IS STILL A PLAYER, BUT 00Z MODEL RUNS DEPICT IT TO BE WEAKER,
WITH ONLY A HINT OF SLY LLJ, AND SAID DRIER SURFACE AIR, THUS THE
LOOSELY ORGANIZED. TTU WRF MODEL CONTINUES TO BE PRETTY OPTIMISTIC
WITH TSTMS AND MOVES THEM THRU BETWEEN 00Z IN THE N TO 04Z IN THE
W/S PB, THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS AFTER
06Z. IN PART BASED ON DRIER AIR MENTIONED EARLIER THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME OUTFLOW WINDS OF WHICH THE TTU WRF PICKED UP ON
ACROSS WRN PB - 30KTS. MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY BUT DOES LOOK A LITTLE
COOLER. INCREASED SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL
ATTEMPT TO KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK ACROSS THE PB, BUT NOT SO MUCH
ACROSS THE W. LOW ORDER POPS ONLY FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY FOR THE W/SW
AND N WITH A WEAKNESS IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD E-SE CLOSER TO THE AREA SUNDAY/MONDAY, BUT THE AXIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN N WHICH MAY RESULT IN MORE OF A SLIGHTLY COOLER ELY MID LEVEL
WIND VICE A NE MID LEVEL WIND.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/49
946
FXUS64 KMAF 290811
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
311 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. DESPITE SE LOW LEVEL FLOW
85H TEMPS WILL INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO AND A POCKET OF RELATIVELY
LOWER SURFACE DWPNT AIR WILL MATERIALIZE (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) FROM
FAR W TX INTO WRN/CNTRL PB. AS SUCH HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SEASONAL
ACROSS THE PB - M90S. PRIOR TO 00Z CONVECTIVE CONCERNS WILL BE
LIMITED, BUT NON-ZERO ACROSS THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES FROM DAVIS
MTNS SWD. MEANWHILE TO THE N-NW A CLUSTER OF TSTMS/LOOSELY ORGANIZED
MCS WILL BE TRACKING SWD ARRIVING IN N-NW CWFA AROUND 00Z. 3H JET
MAX IS STILL A PLAYER, BUT 00Z MODEL RUNS DEPICT IT TO BE WEAKER,
WITH ONLY A HINT OF SLY LLJ, AND SAID DRIER SURFACE AIR, THUS THE
LOOSELY ORGANIZED. TTU WRF MODEL CONTINUES TO BE PRETTY OPTIMISTIC
WITH TSTMS AND MOVES THEM THRU BETWEEN 00Z IN THE N TO 04Z IN THE
W/S PB, THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS AFTER
06Z. IN PART BASED ON DRIER AIR MENTIONED EARLIER THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME OUTFLOW WINDS OF WHICH THE TTU WRF PICKED UP ON
ACROSS WRN PB - 30KTS. MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY BUT DOES LOOK A LITTLE
COOLER. INCREASED SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL
ATTEMPT TO KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK ACROSS THE PB, BUT NOT SO MUCH
ACROSS THE W. LOW ORDER POPS ONLY FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY FOR THE W/SW
AND N WITH A WEAKNESS IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD E-SE CLOSER TO THE AREA SUNDAY/MONDAY, BUT THE AXIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN N WHICH MAY RESULT IN MORE OF A SLIGHTLY COOLER ELY MID LEVEL
WIND VICE A NE MID LEVEL WIND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  95  71  94  72  /  10  30   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    96  69  95  67  /  10  20  10   0
DRYDEN TX                      95  73  93  71  /  10  20  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               94  70  93  69  /  10  20  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              89  66  86  65  /  10  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                       92  66  92  66  /  10  40   0   0
MARFA TX                       88  60  85  57  /  10  20  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        95  69  94  71  /  10  30   0   0
ODESSA TX                      95  70  93  71  /  10  30   0   0
WINK TX                        98  71  96  71  /  10  30  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
047
FXUS64 KMAF 290534
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1234 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING, THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN AOB 12KT. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT MAINLY SE NM AND PERMIAN
BASIN TAF SITES AFTER 30/00Z, BUT GIVEN TIMING/COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY, HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS UPPER
PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, PRESIDIO VALLEY, THE LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND BIG BEND
AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A MOISTURE BOUNDARY. DON`T EXPECT SEVERE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SMALL AND UPPER LIFT
WILL BE LACKING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WEST WITH THE CWA
UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL US DURING THE LATER
PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVING OVER/NEAR
THE CWA. AS A RESULT, UPPER LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AND
MODELS ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE MCS COMING INTO THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND NORTHERN LEA COUNTY MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT.
SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR IMPRESSIVE SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS COMPLEX AS IT
REACHES THE AREA. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
989
FXUS64 KMAF 282332
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
632 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
OVERNIGHT. WIND WILL PICK UP A LITTLE TOMORROW OUT OF THE S TO SE.
MAY BE A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS TOMORROW BUT COVERAGE SPARSE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS UPPER
PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, PRESIDIO VALLEY, THE LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND BIG BEND
AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A MOISTURE BOUNDARY. DON`T EXPECT SEVERE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SMALL AND UPPER LIFT
WILL BE LACKING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WEST WITH THE CWA
UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL US DURING THE LATER
PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVING OVER/NEAR
THE CWA. AS A RESULT, UPPER LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AND
MODELS ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE MCS COMING INTO THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND NORTHERN LEA COUNTY MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT.
SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR IMPRESSIVE SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS COMPLEX AS IT
REACHES THE AREA. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
929
FXUS64 KMAF 281924
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
224 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS UPPER
PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, PRESIDIO VALLEY, THE LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND BIG BEND
AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A MOISTURE BOUNDARY. DON`T EXPECT SEVERE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SMALL AND UPPER LIFT
WILL BE LACKING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WEST WITH THE CWA
UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL US DURING THE LATER
PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVING OVER/NEAR
THE CWA. AS A RESULT, UPPER LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AND
MODELS ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE MCS COMING INTO THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND NORTHERN LEA COUNTY MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT.
SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR IMPRESSIVE SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS COMPLEX AS IT
REACHES THE AREA. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  69  95  70  93  /  10  10  30   0
CARLSBAD NM                    68  95  69  95  /  10  10  20  10
DRYDEN TX                      71  95  72  93  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               67  93  69  93  /  20  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              65  89  67  87  /  10  10  20  10
HOBBS NM                       66  93  67  93  /  10  20  30  10
MARFA TX                       55  88  60  86  /  20  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        68  95  69  93  /  10  10  30   0
ODESSA TX                      68  95  70  93  /  10  10  30   0
WINK TX                        69  97  70  95  /  10  10  30   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/80
635
FXUS64 KMAF 281749
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1249 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASE SEE THE 28/18 AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVIAL ACROSS ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH 29/18Z. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE (AT MOST 1:10) OF CONVECTION IMPACTING KCNM IN THE
20Z-03Z TIME PERIOD. ISOLATED TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS. SUBSEQUENT HIGH-BASED CONVECTION FORMING IN RESPONSE TO
EARLIER LOW LEVEL COLD POOL GENERATION *MIGHT* OCCUR WEST OF KCNM.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE SEVERAL ARGUMENTS AGAINST THIS, NAMELY A LACK
OF BUOYANCY, INSTABILITY, AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. WE`LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.  CHANCES FOR TSRA MAY BE BETTER
AREAWIDE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... STAY TUNED.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70
634
FXUS64 KMAF 281131
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
631 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE CWFA. THE RESULT
WILL BE A MOSTLY DOWN DAY CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING, ISOLD POPS
WARRANTED MAINLY IN/NEAR ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES FROM DAVIS MTNS S AND
WITHIN MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL TREND UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY WITH
DRIER AIR AND 25C 85H TEMPS. MONDAY`S WX DOES LOOK MORE
INTERESTING AS A 3H 65KT JET WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
WITH MUCH OF W TX WITHIN THE LFQ OF SAID JET. THERE`S GOOD MODEL
CONTINUITY AS SEEN IN OMEGA FIELDS (GFS/NAM12). AS SUCH THERE WILL
BE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
STEERING FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO MOVE INTO SE NM/PB BY
MONDAY EVENING. CURRENT FCST HAS INDICATIONS OF HIER POPS (CHANCE)
MONDAY EVENING AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR NOW. 85H TEMPS
WILL INCREASE ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO MONDAY PM AND HIGH TEMPS WILL
EDGE UP A DEGREE OR 2 AHEAD OF TSTMS. DRIER AND A LITTLE COOLER
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IF PRECIP DOES MATERIALIZE. WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
WILL TURN HOTTER, ESPECIALLY WRN PB/SE NM/UPPER TRANS PECOS WHERE
85H TEMPS OF 28C- 31C ARE FCST. FARTHER E A STRONGER SE SURFACE
WIND WILL HELP, BUT M90S SEEM ATTAINABLE. UNFAVORABLE NE MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL MOSTLY PRECLUDE POPS. WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR A POSSIBLE
PATTERN CHANGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT AS USUAL MODEL ARE
INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER, ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER/COOLER THAN
GFS.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/49
204
FXUS64 KMAF 280821
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
321 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE CWFA. THE RESULT
WILL BE A MOSTLY DOWN DAY CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING, ISOLD POPS
WARRANTED MAINLY IN/NEAR ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES FROM DAVIS MTNS S AND
WITHIN MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL TREND UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY WITH
DRIER AIR AND 25C 85H TEMPS. MONDAY`S WX DOES LOOK MORE
INTERESTING AS A 3H 65KT JET WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
WITH MUCH OF W TX WITHIN THE LFQ OF SAID JET. THERE`S GOOD MODEL
CONTINUITY AS SEEN IN OMEGA FIELDS (GFS/NAM12). AS SUCH THERE WILL
BE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
STEERING FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO MOVE INTO SE NM/PB BY
MONDAY EVENING. CURRENT FCST HAS INDICATIONS OF HIER POPS (CHANCE)
MONDAY EVENING AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR NOW. 85H TEMPS
WILL INCREASE ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO MONDAY PM AND HIGH TEMPS WILL
EDGE UP A DEGREE OR 2 AHEAD OF TSTMS. DRIER AND A LITTLE COOLER
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IF PRECIP DOES MATERIALIZE. WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
WILL TURN HOTTER, ESPECIALLY WRN PB/SE NM/UPPER TRANS PECOS WHERE
85H TEMPS OF 28C- 31C ARE FCST. FARTHER E A STRONGER SE SURFACE
WIND WILL HELP, BUT M90S SEEM ATTAINABLE. UNFAVORABLE NE MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL MOSTLY PRECLUDE POPS. WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR A POSSIBLE
PATTERN CHANGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT AS USUAL MODEL ARE
INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER, ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER/COOLER THAN
GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  95  71  95  70  /  10  10  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                    96  67  98  67  /  10  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                      92  71  95  72  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               91  68  94  70  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              89  65  90  65  /  10  10  10  20
HOBBS NM                       92  66  94  65  /  10  10  20  30
MARFA TX                       87  56  89  61  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        94  70  95  69  /  10  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                      94  71  95  70  /  10  10  10  30
WINK TX                        96  70  97  72  /  10  10  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
309
FXUS64 KMAF 280540
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1240 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 12KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN, LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND BIG BEND
AREA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER WHERE THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE STALLED.  CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
1000 TO 2000 J/KG BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE LOW AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE MARGINAL SO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE LOW.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE 12Z MAF SOUNDING WAS 1.28 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRIER TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE CWA
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY MOVE
OVER THE AREA IN THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  BEGINNING ON TUESDAY,
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.  THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN INTO THE LATER PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXPANDS WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S THROUGH NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
AND SHOULD NOT WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
MOSTLY STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
897
FXUS64 KMAF 272241
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
541 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTY WILL DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY
AT GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN, LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND BIG BEND
AREA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER WHERE THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE STALLED.  CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
1000 TO 2000 J/KG BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE LOW AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE MARGINAL SO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE LOW.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE 12Z MAF SOUNDING WAS 1.28 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRIER TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE CWA
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY MOVE
OVER THE AREA IN THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  BEGINNING ON TUESDAY,
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.  THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN INTO THE LATER PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXPANDS WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S THROUGH NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
AND SHOULD NOT WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
MOSTLY STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/80
752
FXUS64 KMAF 271947
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
219 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN, LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND BIG BEND
AREA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER WHERE THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE STALLED.  CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
1000 TO 2000 J/KG BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE LOW AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE MARGINAL SO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE LOW.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE 12Z MAF SOUNDING WAS 1.28 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRIER TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE CWA
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY MOVE
OVER THE AREA IN THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  BEGINNING ON TUESDAY,
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.  THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN INTO THE LATER PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXPANDS WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S THROUGH NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
AND SHOULD NOT WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
MOSTLY STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  68  91  70  93  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    67  94  68  96  /  10  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                      71  93  71  93  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               66  91  68  94  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              65  87  66  89  /  10  10  10  20
HOBBS NM                       65  91  67  92  /  10  10  10  20
MARFA TX                       55  86  55  88  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        68  93  70  95  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      68  93  70  95  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                        68  95  70  98  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/80
641
FXUS64 KMAF 271801
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
101 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASE SEE THE 27/18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

STARTING TO SEE SOME BUILDUPS AND SMALL TSRA EXTENDING ALONG A
WEAK BOUNDARY FROM NEAR CARLSBAD NM ESEWD THROUGH KINK AND KMAF
AND EAST TOWARD KSJT. WITH LITTLE SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY,
THESE PULSE-TYPE TSRA WILL MOVE LITTLE BUT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. FOR NOW HAVE PUT IN TEMPO GROUPS AT KINK
AND KMAF BASED OFF OF RECENT RADAR DATA. INVOF TSRA EXPECT MVFR
VISIBILITY AND JUST BARELY VFR CEILINGS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
WITH SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 11 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM CONVECTION IS WANING BUT WILL BE RENEWED
THIS PM, ESPECIALLY NEAR FST AND HAVE CONTINUED THE TEMPO TSRA
THERE AFTER 21Z. OTHERWISE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS JUST N OF MAF
AND WILL PUSH THRU BEFORE 13Z, WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL
15Z-16Z. BRIEF CIGS NEAR MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR MAF THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND ACCOMPANYING RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS, THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN WILL INCREASE
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH PROGGED TO EXTEND TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED WEST OF THE REGION, RESULTING IN
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THANKS TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA, STALLING OUT IN THE VICINITY OF I-10 THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH UPPER 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON,
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION COULD ALSO
RESULT IN STORMS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL
SHEAR, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, THOUGH STORMS THAT DEVELOP
COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. WITH PRECIPITATBLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.50 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA, THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COMBINED
WITH SLOW STORM MOTION COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES, WITH MIDDLE 50S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MARFA PLATEAU.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY, AND
WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TO MOVE OFF OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE
UPPER TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE OF
PARTICULAR INTEREST AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING A
POTENTIAL MCS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN, SUPPORTED BY A WEAK UPPER JET. HAVE UPPED
POPS A BIT FOR MONDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO SEE IF THE MODELS DISPLAY CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE.
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY LOOK TO BE DRY, WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BOUNDARY EDGING INTO THE AREA NEXT
SATURDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, BUT
FOR NOW HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THAT FAR OUT IN THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70
168
FXUS64 KMAF 271133
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
633 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM CONVECTION IS WANING BUT WILL BE RENEWED
THIS PM, ESPECIALLY NEAR FST AND HAVE CONTINUED THE TEMPO TSRA
THERE AFTER 21Z. OTHERWISE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS JUST N OF MAF
AND WILL PUSH THRU BEFORE 13Z, WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL
15Z-16Z. BRIEF CIGS NEAR MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR MAF THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND ACCOMPANYING RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS, THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN WILL INCREASE
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH PROGGED TO EXTEND TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED WEST OF THE REGION, RESULTING IN
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THANKS TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA, STALLING OUT IN THE VICINITY OF I-10 THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH UPPER 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON,
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION COULD ALSO
RESULT IN STORMS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL
SHEAR, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, THOUGH STORMS THAT DEVELOP
COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. WITH PRECIPITATBLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.50 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA, THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COMBINED
WITH SLOW STORM MOTION COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES, WITH MIDDLE 50S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MARFA PLATEAU.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY, AND
WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TO MOVE OFF OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE
UPPER TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE OF
PARTICULAR INTEREST AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING A
POTENTIAL MCS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN, SUPPORTED BY A WEAK UPPER JET. HAVE UPPED
POPS A BIT FOR MONDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO SEE IF THE MODELS DISPLAY CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE.
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY LOOK TO BE DRY, WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BOUNDARY EDGING INTO THE AREA NEXT
SATURDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, BUT
FOR NOW HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THAT FAR OUT IN THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
457
FXUS64 KMAF 270917
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
417 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND ACCOMPANYING RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS, THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN WILL INCREASE
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH PROGGED TO EXTEND TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED WEST OF THE REGION, RESULTING IN
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THANKS TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA, STALLING OUT IN THE VICINITY OF I-10 THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH UPPER 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON,
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION COULD ALSO
RESULT IN STORMS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL
SHEAR, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, THOUGH STORMS THAT DEVELOP
COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. WITH PRECIPITATBLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.50 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA, THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COMBINED
WITH SLOW STORM MOTION COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES, WITH MIDDLE 50S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MARFA PLATEAU.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY, AND
WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TO MOVE OFF OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE
UPPER TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE OF
PARTICULAR INTEREST AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING A
POTENTIAL MCS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN, SUPPORTED BY A WEAK UPPER JET. HAVE UPPED
POPS A BIT FOR MONDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO SEE IF THE MODELS DISPLAY CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE.
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY LOOK TO BE DRY, WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BOUNDARY EDGING INTO THE AREA NEXT
SATURDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, BUT
FOR NOW HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THAT FAR OUT IN THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  90  68  91  71  /  20  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    91  69  94  68  /  40  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      94  71  94  72  /  40  20  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               90  68  92  69  /  40  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              82  65  87  66  /  30  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       87  65  88  65  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                       86  55  87  55  /  30  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        91  67  93  70  /  30  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      90  67  93  70  /  30  10  10  10
WINK TX                        92  69  96  70  /  40  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/84
114
FXUS64 KMAF 270531
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1231 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLD TSRA NEARING HOB AND TSRA NE OF FST, FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO
MENTION A TEMPO AT HOB. OTHERWISE FRONTAL SURGE TO OCCUR AROUND
15Z AT MOST SITES WITH INCREASED NE-E WIND THRU THE AFTERNOON,
NEAR 15KTS. ALSO INSTABILITY WILL FOCUS AROUND BOUNDARY NEAR FST
AND HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP THERE AFTER 20Z. WIND TURN SE
THIS EVENING.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
846
FXUS64 KMAF 262311
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
611 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS. KMAF RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING WELL SOUTH OF THE FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN SOUTH TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TRANS PECOS
REGION OF WEST TEXAS. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING AT KPEQ AND KFST. MORE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO MENTION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST TRENDS.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY MORNING STORMS ARE FINALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN WITH NEW CONVECTION FIRING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A BOUNDARY
LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER STORMS IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN WITH A COLD FRONT NEARING LUBBOCK. AS WE CONTINUE
TO HEAT UP, CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND FOCUS NEAR
THESE BOUNDARIES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION DUE TO WEAK SHEAR, BUT A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW-MOVING SO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT,
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WILL BE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT. SUNDAY, FOR
NOW, LOOKS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION UNLESS AN UNFORSEEN
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH WITHIN THE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.
MODELS ARE HINTING CONVECTION MAY MOVE SOUTH OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BEYOND THAT, THE UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR WEST MAY TRY TO BUILD IN BRIEFLY MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WOULD
KEEP US MOSTLY DRY MUCH OF THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR A FEW STORMS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE NEXT
WEEK SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DO THE SAME. HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL AND STAY THERE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
396
FXUS64 KMAF 261920
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
220 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY MORNING STORMS ARE FINALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN WITH NEW CONVECTION FIRING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A BOUNDARY
LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER STORMS IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN WITH A COLD FRONT NEARING LUBBUCK. AS WE CONTINUE TO
HEAT UP, CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND FOCUS NEAR THESE
BOUNDARIES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR, BUT A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND HOT TEMPERTURES
WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS. STORMS WILL
BE SLOW-MOVING SO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT,
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WILL BE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT. SUNDAY, FOR
NOW, LOOKS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION UNLESS AN UNFORSEEN
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH WITHIN THE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.
MODELS ARE HINTING CONVECTION MAY MOVE SOUTH OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BEYOND THAT, THE UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR WEST MAY TRY TO BUILD IN BRIEFLY MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WOULD
KEEP US MOSTLY DRY MUCH OF THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR A FEW STORMS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE NEXT
WEEK SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DO THE SAME. HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL AND STAY THERE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  72  89  69  92  /  40  20  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    71  90  69  92  /  30  40  20  10
DRYDEN TX                      74  94  73  94  /  30  40  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               71  91  69  92  /  40  40  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  81  65  87  /  30  40  10  10
HOBBS NM                       66  86  66  88  /  30  20  20  10
MARFA TX                       63  86  62  87  /  40  30  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  90  69  92  /  40  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                      71  89  68  92  /  40  30  10  10
WINK TX                        72  93  71  94  /  30  40  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29
035
FXUS64 KMAF 261748
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1248 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASE SEE THE 26/18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS
MOUNTAINS SOUTH ACROSS THE MARFA PLATEAU AND EAST ACROSS THE GLASS
MOUNTAINS. IN PART DUE TO WEAK SHEAR ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO INCREASE THAT SHEAR, ADDITIONAL TSRA
DEVELOPMENT WILL HINGE PRIMARILY ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND IN
PARTICULAR COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS INVOF TSRA, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED MVFR TO
IFR VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST. WE`VE ADDED TSRA TO ALL TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNON AND EVENING...IN PART DUE TO A COUPLE OF WEAK
BOUNDARIES MOVING INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF TSRA ACTIVITY, WINDS WILL
TREND EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 11 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
A FEW SHRA NEARING HOB ATTM, BUT MOSTLY EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
MAY RESULT IN BKN LAYER AROUND 050. OTHERWISE WINDS OUTSIDE OF
SHRA THIS MORNING WILL STILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, LESS THAN
10KTS. PM TSRA WILL BE AROUND THE AREA BUT THE BETTER CHANCE MAY
BTWN 03Z-12Z ACROSS SE NM AND HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE PROB30 GROUPS
THERE LATE TONIGHT/SAT AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/

UPDATE...

SOME STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE LAST 2 HOURS IN THE VAN
HORN AREA AS WELL AS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. ALSO, THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HAVE
UPDATED POPS AND WX FOR THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE TODAY, WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A DEEPENING
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE GULF COAST.
THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING
WEST OF THE REGION, YIELDING OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

TODAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE SUMMER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS, ESPECIALLY AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NEAR AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL, A FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S
HIGHS, TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE MARFA PLATEAU, WHERE
COMPARATIVELY COOL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ARE ANTICIPATED.

WHILE THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL REPEAT OF THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS /CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AND
ADJACENT PLAINS/, A TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND SERVE TO EXPAND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AREA-WIDE, AS WELL AS DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. DUE
TO THE MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS REMAINED OVER THE REGION AS OF LATE,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.50 INCHES WOULD LEND TO A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY AMONG MODELS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING AND POSITIONING
OF THE FRONT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS EACH
DAY GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.  THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF SHEAR EXPECTED, THUS THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN
MARGINAL, THOUGH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD POSE A LOCALIZED FLOOD
THREAT. THE EXACT LOCATION OF ANY CONVECTION FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND HEAVILY UPON THE TIMING OF ANY WAVES IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS THE LOCATION OF SURFACE
BOUNDARIES. THUS, HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BEYOND TUESDAY, A DRYING TREND LOOKS TO GET UNDERWAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FROM THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70
897
FXUS64 KMAF 261136
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHRA NEARING HOB ATTM, BUT MOSTLY EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
MAY RESULT IN BKN LAYER AROUND 050. OTHERWISE WINDS OUTSIDE OF
SHRA THIS MORNING WILL STILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, LESS THAN
10KTS. PM TSRA WILL BE AROUND THE AREA BUT THE BETTER CHANCE MAY
BTWN 03Z-12Z ACROSS SE NM AND HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE PROB30 GROUPS
THERE LATE TONIGHT/SAT AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/

UPDATE...

SOME STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE LAST 2 HOURS IN THE VAN
HORN AREA AS WELL AS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. ALSO, THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HAVE
UPDATED POPS AND WX FOR THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE TODAY, WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A DEEPENING
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE GULF COAST.
THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING
WEST OF THE REGION, YIELDING OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

TODAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE SUMMER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS, ESPECIALLY AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NEAR AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL, A FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S
HIGHS, TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE MARFA PLATEAU, WHERE
COMPARATIVELY COOL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ARE ANTICIPATED.

WHILE THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL REPEAT OF THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS /CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AND
ADJACENT PLAINS/, A TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND SERVE TO EXPAND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AREA-WIDE, AS WELL AS DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. DUE
TO THE MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS REMAINED OVER THE REGION AS OF LATE,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.50 INCHES WOULD LEND TO A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY AMONG MODELS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING AND POSITIONING
OF THE FRONT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS EACH
DAY GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.  THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF SHEAR EXPECTED, THUS THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN
MARGINAL, THOUGH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD POSE A LOCALIZED FLOOD
THREAT. THE EXACT LOCATION OF ANY CONVECTION FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND HEAVILY UPON THE TIMING OF ANY WAVES IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS THE LOCATION OF SURFACE
BOUNDARIES. THUS, HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BEYOND TUESDAY, A DRYING TREND LOOKS TO GET UNDERWAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FROM THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
874
FXUS64 KMAF 261129
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
629 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.UPDATE...

SOME STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE LAST 2 HOURS IN THE VAN
HORN AREA AS WELL AS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. ALSO, THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HAVE
UPDATED POPS AND WX FOR THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE TODAY, WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A DEEPENING
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE GULF COAST.
THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING
WEST OF THE REGION, YIELDING OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

TODAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE SUMMER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS, ESPECIALLY AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NEAR AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL, A FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S
HIGHS, TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE MARFA PLATEAU, WHERE
COMPARATIVELY COOL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ARE ANTICIPATED.

WHILE THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL REPEAT OF THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS /CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AND
ADJACENT PLAINS/, A TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND SERVE TO EXPAND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AREA-WIDE, AS WELL AS DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. DUE
TO THE MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS REMAINED OVER THE REGION AS OF LATE,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.50 INCHES WOULD LEND TO A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY AMONG MODELS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING AND POSITIONING
OF THE FRONT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS EACH
DAY GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.  THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF SHEAR EXPECTED, THUS THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN
MARGINAL, THOUGH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD POSE A LOCALIZED FLOOD
THREAT. THE EXACT LOCATION OF ANY CONVECTION FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND HEAVILY UPON THE TIMING OF ANY WAVES IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS THE LOCATION OF SURFACE
BOUNDARIES. THUS, HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BEYOND TUESDAY, A DRYING TREND LOOKS TO GET UNDERWAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FROM THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  96  72  89  69  /  20  30  30  10
CARLSBAD NM                    98  71  90  69  /  40  40  40  30
DRYDEN TX                      97  74  95  73  /  10  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               96  71  91  69  /  20  20  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX              90  67  81  64  /  40  40  40  20
HOBBS NM                       94  68  85  66  /  30  40  40  30
MARFA TX                       88  61  87  62  /  40  30  30  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        97  71  90  69  /  20  30  40  20
ODESSA TX                      96  71  89  68  /  20  30  40  20
WINK TX                       100  72  93  71  /  20  30  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/84
361
FXUS64 KMAF 260920
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
420 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE TODAY, WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A DEEPENING
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE GULF COAST.
THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING
WEST OF THE REGION, YIELDING OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

TODAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE SUMMER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS, ESPECIALLY AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NEAR AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL, A FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S
HIGHS, TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE MARFA PLATEAU, WHERE
COMPARATIVELY COOL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ARE ANTICIPATED.

WHILE THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL REPEAT OF THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS /CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AND
ADJACENT PLAINS/, A TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND SERVE TO EXPAND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AREA-WIDE, AS WELL AS DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. DUE
TO THE MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS REMAINED OVER THE REGION AS OF LATE,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.50 INCHES WOULD LEND TO A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY AMONG MODELS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING AND POSITIONING
OF THE FRONT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS EACH
DAY GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.  THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF SHEAR EXPECTED, THUS THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN
MARGINAL, THOUGH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD POSE A LOCALIZED FLOOD
THREAT. THE EXACT LOCATION OF ANY CONVECTION FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND HEAVILY UPON THE TIMING OF ANY WAVES IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS THE LOCATION OF SURFACE
BOUNDARIES. THUS, HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BEYOND TUESDAY, A DRYING TREND LOOKS TO GET UNDERWAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FROM THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  96  72  89  69  /  10  30  30  10
CARLSBAD NM                    98  71  90  69  /  40  40  40  30
DRYDEN TX                      97  74  95  73  /  10  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               96  71  91  69  /  20  20  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX              90  67  81  64  /  40  40  40  20
HOBBS NM                       94  68  85  66  /  30  40  40  30
MARFA TX                       88  61  87  62  /  40  30  30  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        97  71  90  69  /  20  30  40  20
ODESSA TX                      96  71  89  68  /  20  30  40  20
WINK TX                       100  72  93  71  /  20  30  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/84
118
FXUS64 KMAF 260534
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1234 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING IS WHETHER TSRA NW/N OF HOB/CNM WILL
MAKE INTO HOB/CNM AREAS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST LOW
PROBABILITY AND FOR NOW WILL OMIT THE MENTION AND UPDATE AS
NEEDED. OTHERWISE MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS THIS AM WITH WINDS MOSTLY
LESS THAN 10KTS.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
655
FXUS64 KMAF 252348
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
648 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASE SEE THE 26/00Z FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ON THE DECREASE FROM THE MARFA PLATEAU
NORTH ACROSS THE DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE KCNM AND KPEQ (CLOSEST TO AFOREMENTIONED TSRA) WILL NOT BE
IMPACTED, BUT SOME ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THESE
TERMINALS BEFORE 26/02Z. OTHER THAN PERHAPS BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMAF AND KFST AROUND SUNRISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. LOOK FOR CHANCES FOR TSRA TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE
DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN TIMING AND
PLACING TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME; HOWEVER, WE`LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AND WE SHOULD HAVE MORE
CONFIDENCE EITHER WAY IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70
419
FXUS64 KMAF 251935
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
235 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES AS WE FINISH OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH
BETTER RAIN CHANCES AHEAD THIS WEEKEND.

A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXPANDING ACROSS
MOST OF THE WESTERN U.S. MEANWHILE, AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH
WILL DIG OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUT OUR REGION
IN NORTHERLY OR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND EVEN A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH WITHIN THIS FLOW AND BRING SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINGERING INVERTED
TROUGH, HOWEVER BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE COLD FRONT. MOIST, SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5". WE
MAY SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS, BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A BIGGER
CONCERN. IT`S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE AS IT WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON
SHORTWAVES AND BOUNDARY LOCATIONS. THE FRONT MAY LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH DAY. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO
CONTINUE SO ALSO CAN`T RULE OUT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MOVING SOUTH
INTO THE REGION EACH NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW BEFORE DROPPING
BACK A FEW DEGREES THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO NEVER REALLY BUILD IN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK SO EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR WHERE WE HAVE SEEN THEM LATELY, AT
OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JUNE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  71  96  72  90  /   0  10  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                    70  97  70  89  /  20  40  40  40
DRYDEN TX                      72  96  72  93  /  10  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX               71  96  70  90  /  10  20  20  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  89  67  82  /  20  40  40  40
HOBBS NM                       67  94  67  87  /  10  30  40  40
MARFA TX                       62  90  64  86  /  20  40  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  96  71  89  /   0  10  20  40
ODESSA TX                      71  95  71  89  /  10  20  20  40
WINK TX                        72  99  72  91  /  10  20  30  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29
268
FXUS64 KMAF 251711
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1211 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST AVIATION  DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND OVERNIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED TSRA AT KCNM...BUT LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE OTHER
TERMINALS DUE TO LOW PROBABILITIES.  MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN EAST OF ALL AREA TERMINALS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015/

LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AS SUMMER WX PATTERN
SLOWLY DEVELOPS. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
REGION WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DEEPENS OVER THE EAST. THIS WILL PUT THE
AREA INTO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THE WEEKEND THAT COULD BRING
SHORTWAVES DOWN INTO THE AREA AND HELP DEVELOP RAIN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW CLIMB THROUGH FRIDAY... MAY
SEE HIGHS PUSHING THE CENTURY MARK TOMORROW ALONG THE PECOS AND
RIO GRANDE VALLEYS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG DOWN INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY WITH THE WIND BECOMING EASTERLY/UPSLOPE SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER. WARMER TEMPS RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT STAY NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL.

HAD GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON... SHOULD SEE SOME STORMS OVER SAME LOCATION TODAY BUT
EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE.  ON FRIDAY MODELS SHOW NOT ONLY STORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS BUT ALSO STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTH.  THESE STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE
EVENING... CROSSING THE PECOS OVERNIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
CWA SATURDAY. AFTER THAT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON THE DECREASE
BUT NW FLOW COULD BRING SOME STORMS DOWN INTO THE CWA.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
602
FXUS64 KMAF 251147
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
647 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ASIDE
FROM A SMALL WINDOW THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 14-15Z WHEN KHOB,
KMAF, AND KFST COULD SEE SOME BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE GOING TEMPOS FOR THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT POSSIBLE
TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR WEST TEXAS TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AS SUMMER WX PATTERN SLOWLY
DEVELOPS.  THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION WILL
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DEEPENS OVER THE EAST.  THIS WILL PUT THE AREA INTO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THE WEEKEND THAT COULD BRING SHORTWAVES DOWN
INTO THE AREA AND HELP DEVELOP RAIN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW CLIMB THROUGH FRIDAY... MAY
SEE HIGHS PUSHING THE CENTURY MARK TOMORROW ALONG THE PECOS AND
RIO GRANDE VALLEYS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG DOWN INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY WITH THE WIND BECOMING EASTERLY/UPSLOPE SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER. WARMER TEMPS RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT STAY NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL.

HAD GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON... SHOULD SEE SOME STORMS OVER SAME LOCATION TODAY BUT
EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE.  ON FRIDAY MODELS SHOW NOT ONLY STORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS BUT ALSO STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTH.  THESE STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE
EVENING... CROSSING THE PECOS OVERNIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
CWA SATURDAY. AFTER THAT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON THE DECREASE
BUT NW FLOW COULD BRING SOME STORMS DOWN INTO THE CWA.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84
230
FXUS64 KMAF 250816
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
316 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AS SUMMER WX PATTERN SLOWLY
DEVELOPS.  THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION WILL
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DEEPENS OVER THE EAST.  THIS WILL PUT THE AREA INTO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THE WEEKEND THAT COULD BRING SHORTWAVES DOWN
INTO THE AREA AND HELP DEVELOP RAIN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW CLIMB THROUGH FRIDAY... MAY
SEE HIGHS PUSHING THE CENTURY MARK TOMORROW ALONG THE PECOS AND
RIO GRANDE VALLEYS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG DOWN INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY WITH THE WIND BECOMING EASTERLY/UPSLOPE SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER. WARMER TEMPS RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT STAY NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL.

HAD GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON... SHOULD SEE SOME STORMS OVER SAME LOCATION TODAY BUT
EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE.  ON FRIDAY MODELS SHOW NOT ONLY STORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS BUT ALSO STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTH.  THESE STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE
EVENING... CROSSING THE PECOS OVERNIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
CWA SATURDAY. AFTER THAT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON THE DECREASE
BUT NW FLOW COULD BRING SOME STORMS DOWN INTO THE CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  94  71  95  71  /   0   0  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                    93  69  97  69  /  10  10  30  30
DRYDEN TX                      94  72  96  72  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               93  71  96  70  /  10   0  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX              86  68  89  66  /  20  20  30  30
HOBBS NM                       90  66  93  66  /   0  10  20  40
MARFA TX                       87  60  88  62  /  20  10  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        93  70  95  70  /   0   0  10  30
ODESSA TX                      92  70  95  70  /   0   0  10  30
WINK TX                        95  71  99  71  /   0   0  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72
402
FXUS64 KMAF 250555
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1255 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL 11-12Z, WHEN MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, AFFECTING KHOB, KINK, KMAF, AND KFST. HAVE
MAINTAINED GOING TEMPOS FOR THESE SITES, AND EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES BY 14-15Z. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY FOR WEST TEXAS TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION TODAY WITH A WEAK
WESTWARD MOVING INVERTED TROUGH JUST SW OF FAR WEST TX. THIS
UPPER TROUGH HAS PROVIDED SOME WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES (GENERALLY WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER), RESULTING IN
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL PWATS OF 1.25-1.5 INCHES
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNSET.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AND WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF
DAYTIME HEATING LEFT, HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 90S MOST LOCATIONS.

THE UA INVERTED TROUGH LOOKS TO PRETTY MUCH DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT THEN
UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HEADED INTO
THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 90 (HIGHER
TERRAIN) TO THE UPPER 90S (PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS). ALSO, NOT
GOING TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DURING THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH AND PUSH A WEAK
FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE FA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW CHANCE POPS CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MAYBE
MONDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE
AREA IN N/NW FLOW ALOFT, PROVIDING SOME WEAK LIFT TO THE CWA. A
SLOW WARMING TREND RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
511
FXUS64 KMAF 242317
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
617 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER ARE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE
LEAVING BEHIND A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS. TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP. THESE
CLOUDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST A FEW HOURS SO CONDITIONS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION TODAY WITH A WEAK
WESTWARD MOVING INVERTED TROUGH JUST SW OF FAR WEST TX. THIS
UPPER TROUGH HAS PROVIDED SOME WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES (GENERALLY WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER), RESULTING IN
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL PWATS OF 1.25-1.5 INCHES
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNSET.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AND WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF
DAYTIME HEATING LEFT, HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 90S MOST LOCATIONS.

THE UA INVERTED TROUGH LOOKS TO PRETTY MUCH DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT THEN
UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HEADED INTO
THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 90 (HIGHER
TERRAIN) TO THE UPPER 90S (PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS). ALSO, NOT
GOING TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DURING THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH AND PUSH A WEAK
FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE FA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW CHANCE POPS CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MAYBE
MONDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE
AREA IN N/NW FLOW ALOFT, PROVIDING SOME WEAK LIFT TO THE CWA. A
SLOW WARMING TREND RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29
700
FXUS64 KMAF 241923
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
223 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION TODAY WITH A WEAK
WESTWARD MOVING INVERTED TROUGH JUST SW OF FAR WEST TX. THIS
UPPER TROUGH HAS PROVIDED SOME WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES (GENERALLY WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER), RESULTING IN
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL PWATS OF 1.25-1.5 INCHES
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNSET.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AND WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF
DAYTIME HEATING LEFT, HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 90S MOST LOCATIONS.

THE UA INVERTED TROUGH LOOKS TO PRETTY MUCH DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT THEN
UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HEADED INTO
THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 90 (HIGHER
TERRAIN) TO THE UPPER 90S (PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS). ALSO, NOT
GOING TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DURING THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH AND PUSH A WEAK
FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE FA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW CHANCE POPS CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MAYBE
MONDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE
AREA IN N/NW FLOW ALOFT, PROVIDING SOME WEAK LIFT TO THE CWA. A
SLOW WARMING TREND RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  70  93  71  95  /  10   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                    68  94  70  96  /  10  10  10  30
DRYDEN TX                      71  92  70  94  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX 68 93 69 95 / 10 10 0 10 GUADALUPE PASS TX 64 85
68 89 / 30 20 20 30 HOBBS NM 66 91 67 93 / 10 0 10 30 MARFA TX 62
86 61 87 / 20 20 10 30 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 69 93 70 95 / 10 0
0 10 ODESSA TX 70 92 70 95 / 10 0 0 10 WINK TX 70 94 71 98 / 10 0
0 20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/27
365
FXUS64 KMAF 241652
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1152 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

PERSISTENCE RULES AS UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS WEST INTO THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SAT IMAGERY SHOW A
WIDESPREAD CU FIELD DEVELOPING, W/BASES 4.5-6 KFT AGL. DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN OUT WEST, BUT CLR OF ANY
TERMINALS. A FEW HOURS OF MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE OVER THE ERN TERMINALS, GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER CU
FIELD SIMILAR TO TODAY`S BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER OK THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST DURING
THE DAY.  THE CENTER OF RIDGE WILL REFORM BACK TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY NEAR 4 CORNERS REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN U.S AND A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EAST.  THIS LOOKS TO PUT
THE AREA INTO NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF STORMS TO
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW CLIMB THROUGH FRIDAY AS WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN 850 MB TEMPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  MODELS CONTINUE
TO BRIDGE A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY SO IT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE WIND COMES AROUND TO THE
EAST.  WARMER TEMPS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF STORMS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  A SOUTHEAST WIND TODAY WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT
UPSLOPE FLOW... AND GIVEN GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.  MODELS DEVELOP DECENT AMOUNTS OF QPF SO THOSE WHO SEE
STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE
PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AS POSSIBILITY OF DISTURBANCES MOVING DOWN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
255
FXUS64 KMAF 241136
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH KCNM THE ONLY SITE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MVFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR KHOB, KMAF, AND KINK
TO SEE BROKEN TO OVERCAST MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MID-MORNING, SO
HAVE HANDLED THESE SITES WITH TEMPOS THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AREA-WIDE BY AROUND 16Z. BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, GUSTING
TO AROUND 25KT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER OK THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST DURING
THE DAY.  THE CENTER OF RIDGE WILL REFORM BACK TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY NEAR 4 CORNERS REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN U.S AND A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EAST.  THIS LOOKS TO PUT
THE AREA INTO NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF STORMS TO
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW CLIMB THROUGH FRIDAY AS WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN 850 MB TEMPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  MODELS CONTINUE
TO BRIDGE A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY SO IT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE WIND COMES AROUND TO THE
EAST.  WARMER TEMPS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF STORMS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  A SOUTHEAST WIND TODAY WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT
UPSLOPE FLOW... AND GIVEN GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.  MODELS DEVELOP DECENT AMOUNTS OF QPF SO THOSE WHO SEE
STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE
PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AS POSSIBILITY OF DISTURBANCES MOVING DOWN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72
759
FXUS64 KMAF 240856
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
356 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER OK THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST DURING
THE DAY.  THE CENTER OF RIDGE WILL REFORM BACK TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY NEAR 4 CORNERS REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN U.S AND A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EAST.  THIS LOOKS TO PUT
THE AREA INTO NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF STORMS TO
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW CLIMB THROUGH FRIDAY AS WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN 850 MB TEMPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  MODELS CONTINUE
TO BRIDGE A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY SO IT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE WIND COMES AROUND TO THE
EAST.  WARMER TEMPS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF STORMS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  A SOUTHEAST WIND TODAY WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT
UPSLOPE FLOW... AND GIVEN GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.  MODELS DEVELOP DECENT AMOUNTS OF QPF SO THOSE WHO SEE
STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE
PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AS POSSIBILITY OF DISTURBANCES MOVING DOWN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  93  71  93  72  /   0  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    90  69  94  70  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      92  71  95  72  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCTON TX                90  69  94  70  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              80  62  86  68  /  30  30  20  20
HOBBS NM                       89  67  92  68  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       83  59  87  60  /  40  20  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        91  70  93  71  /   0  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      90  70  92  71  /   0  10  10  10
WINK TX                        92  72  95  72  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72
087
FXUS64 KMAF 240548
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1248 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREA TAF
SITES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KFST AND KPEQ.
EXPECT ONSET OF LOW CEILINGS WITHIN THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH AREA-WIDE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL 15-17Z. SOME STORMS MAY AFFECT KCNM DURING THE AFTERNOON,
THOUGH TIMING/COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE
CURRENT TAF. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE, WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84
908
FXUS64 KMAF 232327
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE MVFR CIGS
RETURN BY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AROUND 16Z. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29
790
FXUS64 KMAF 231951
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
251 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A tropical-like disturbance aloft will continue to enhance the
potential for showers and thunderstorms, during the next 24 hours.
The latest water vapor imagery loop indicates this upper-level
disturbance, or so called inverted trough, is currently centered
just south of the Big Bend in northern Mexico. The NAM moves this
trough slowly toward the west, during the next 24 hours, and
brings its center over the El Paso area by tomorrow afternoon.
Based on this projected movement, continuing the best rain chances
over the Davis Mountains and Big Bend areas look reasonable for
tonight and tomorrow.

For the remainder of the 7 day forecast, the forecast remains
unchanged. For Thursday and Friday, a thermal ridge to the west,
at 850mb, will expand east into West Texas and Southeastern New
Mexico. This increase in 850mb temperatures will help push
afternoon highs back into the mid to upper 90s, especially across
the Permina Basin, Trans Pecos region, and the Presidio Valley.
Then, models bring a weak cold front south across the Permian
Basin and into the Trans Pecos region on Saturday. The GFS and
ECMWF are in fairly good agreement on the timing of this front.
Based on this model agreement, continuing mainly chance PoPs for
much of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, for Friday night and
Saturday, looks good. Otherwise, drier conditions and cooler
afternoon highs look likely through next Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  89  69  91  /   0   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              71  92  72  92  /   0   0  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                68  90  68  93  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  73  90  72  94  /  30  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  89  69  93  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  80  64  85  /  10  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                   66  89  66  91  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   61  82  60  85  /  20  40  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  90  70  92  /  10   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  70  89  71  91  /  10   0  10  10
WINK TX                    71  93  71  94  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

Huber

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391
FXUS64 KMAF 231748
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1248 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected across the terminals this afternoon.
Intermittent rain showers are possible this afternoon, mainly
at KFST and KPEQ and will include a TEMPO group at both
terminals. Should see some stratus develop again late tonight,
with MVFR ceilings affecting most of the terminals into the mid
morning hours Wednesday. Gusty southeast winds this afternoon
will subside early this evening, then increase again after 15Z
Wednesday.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings have overspread the area, though have been a bit
more intermittent than previously expected, particularly for KFST.
Have gone ahead and included a scattered MVFR deck for KFST and
KPEQ through mid-morning, with broken to overcast for other area
TAF sites through late morning. By about 15-17Z, all sites should
improve to VFR for the remainder of the period. Winds will remain
elevated out of the southeast, gusting to 20 to 25kt this
afternoon, with gusts diminishing somewhat after 00Z this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the Panhandle will slowly move east as an
inverted trough move west under the ridge and across the southern
CWA today. As the week goes on the upper ridge will strengthen over
the Western U.S. and put the area into NW flow aloft.

With a persistent S to SE wind look for low level moisture to remain
elevated with dewpts in the 60s and as high as 70 at Dryden.  This
has allowed status to spread northward across the Trans Pecos and
Western Permian Basin into NM.  These low clouds should burn off before
noon as temperatures warm.  Looks like it may be a little breezy
today as winds aloft will be stronger.

Temperatures most of the week will vary little from day to day.
With higher moisture than usual will have lower high temperatures and
higher lows than normal.  Temps warm on Friday as upper ridge builds
over the area.  By Saturday a surface ridge builds south pushing a
weak front/boundary into the area with the wind becoming easterly.
Should be a few degrees cooler Saturday.

There is a good chance for storms today across the southern CWA with
some locally heavy rain possible.  Have plenty of moisture to work
with... model sounding show PW around 1.2 inches for MAF and around
1.3 inches for MRF.  Have bumped up pops slightly across the West
and added mention of moderate rainfall to the grids for today.  Most
rain chances will remain west of the Pecos next several days.  Low
pops will continue in the extended and favor the higher elevations.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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837
FXUS64 KMAF 231122
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
622 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings have overspread the area, though have been a bit
more intermittent than previously expected, particularly for KFST.
Have gone ahead and included a scattered MVFR deck for KFST and
KPEQ through mid-morning, with broken to overcast for other area
TAF sites through late morning. By about 15-17Z, all sites should
improve to VFR for the remainder of the period. Winds will remain
elevated out of the southeast, gusting to 20 to 25kt this
afternoon, with gusts diminishing somewhat after 00Z this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the Panhandle will slowly move east as an
inverted trough move west under the ridge and across the southern
CWA today. As the week goes on the upper ridge will strengthen over
the Western U.S. and put the area into NW flow aloft.

With a persistent S to SE wind look for low level moisture to remain
elevated with dewpts in the 60s and as high as 70 at Dryden.  This
has allowed status to spread northward across the Trans Pecos and
Western Permian Basin into NM.  These low clouds should burn off before
noon as temperatures warm.  Looks like it may be a little breezy
today as winds aloft will be stronger.

Temperatures most of the week will vary little from day to day.
With higher moisture than usual will have lower high temperatures and
higher lows than normal.  Temps warm on Friday as upper ridge builds
over the area.  By Saturday a surface ridge builds south pushing a
weak front/boundary into the area with the wind becoming easterly.
Should be a few degrees cooler Saturday.

There is a good chance for storms today across the southern CWA with
some locally heavy rain possible.  Have plenty of moisture to work
with... model sounding show PW around 1.2 inches for MAF and around
1.3 inches for MRF.  Have bumped up pops slightly across the West
and added mention of moderate rainfall to the grids for today.  Most
rain chances will remain west of the Pecos next several days.  Low
pops will continue in the extended and favor the higher elevations.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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520
FXUS64 KMAF 230901
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
401 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the Panhandle will slowly move east as an
inverted trough move west under the ridge and across the southern
CWA today. As the week goes on the upper ridge will strengthen over
the Western U.S. and put the area into NW flow aloft.

With a persistent S to SE wind look for low level moisture to remain
elevated with dewpts in the 60s and as high as 70 at Dryden.  This
has allowed status to spread northward across the Trans Pecos and
Western Permian Basin into NM.  These low clouds should burn off before
noon as temperatures warm.  Looks like it may be a little breezy
today as winds aloft will be stronger.

Temperatures most of the week will vary little from day to day.
With higher moisture than usual will have lower high temperatures and
higher lows than normal.  Temps warm on Friday as upper ridge builds
over the area.  By Saturday a surface ridge builds south pushing a
weak front/boundary into the area with the wind becoming easterly.
Should be a few degrees cooler Saturday.

There is a good chance for storms today across the southern CWA with
some locally heavy rain possible.  Have plenty of moisture to work
with... model sounding show PW around 1.2 inches for MAF and around
1.3 inches for MRF.  Have bumped up pops slightly across the West
and added mention of moderate rainfall to the grids for today.  Most
rain chances will remain west of the Pecos next several days.  Low
pops will continue in the extended and favor the higher elevations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 89  68  89  69  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              91  71  92  72  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                88  68  90  68  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  89  73  90  72  /  30  30  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           88  69  89  69  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          80  64  80  64  /  20  10  30  30
HOBBS NM                   88  66  89  66  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   81  61  82  60  /  40  20  40  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    90  70  90  70  /  10  10   0  10
ODESSA TX                  89  70  89  71  /  10  10   0  10
WINK TX                    92  71  93  71  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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