Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 031858

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
158 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015

Water vapor imagery depicts a well defined shrtwv trof INVOF AZ/NM
border with a mid level trof axis sw of srn Baja and remnants of
Marty s of Baja`s srn tip. In the sw flow aloft there is a broad
moist axis/subtropical connection that is across the CWFA,
especially wrn half. Minor shrtwv trof moving thru the flow today
and tonight will result in scattered SHRA/TSRA. High resolution
RAP13/HRRR suggest there will precip focused from MRF Plateau to
around Pecos and from around GDP Mtns thru nrn Lea Co into the late
evening hrs tonight. A few strong storms are also possible across
the far w into the evening where 7h-5h LR`s around 7c/km and 0-6km
bulk shear of 30kts are noted. Yesterday part of the challenge was
identifying shrtwv trof/s moving thru the flow and is today as well.
However there does look to be some consensus that a stronger shrtwv
trof will move from nrn Mexico into the Trans Pecos Sunday, merging
with the weakening shrtwv trof from AZ/NM. As such there is expected
to be an uptick in SHRA/TSRA Sunday/Sunday night across the w. PoPs
overnight won`t need too much adjusting, however we will increase
PoPs Sunday/Sunday night, especially across the far wrn CWFA, where
local heavy rain/flooding are possible. Monday/Tuesday will be
relatively down days for precip, scattered -SHRA Monday AM and an
isold TSRA Tuesday in the mtns. Meanwhile a mid/upper low with an
80-90kt 3h jet will move into AZ/NM Wed. By later Wednesday and
into Thursday jet dynamics will come into play, the general pattern
looks to be favorable for fairly widespread rain. Although PW`s
don`t look to be over zealous there is potential for rain to persist
Thursday, at least for the ern half/third of CWFA, and flooding
concerns may gradually increase into Thursday in the e. Precip
chances may even persist into Fri either assocd with wrap around
(GFS low e) or in deformation zone (ECMWF low sw). Superblend has
been generating high PoPs in this time and generally won`t make
any changes. Temperatures will mostly remain well below normal.


BIG SPRING TX                  59  83  54  70  /  10  10  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                    64  69  55  69  /  60  60  60  30
DRYDEN TX                      68  87  67  77  /  10  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX               66  82  59  71  /  20  20  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX              62  67  52  66  /  70  70  60  30
HOBBS NM                       56  77  52  68  /  50  30  40  30
MARFA TX                       58  72  55  70  /  40  40  60  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        61  81  57  70  /  20  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                      63  81  56  70  /  20  10  20  30
WINK TX                        65  81  61  74  /  50  30  40  40




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