Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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227
FXUS64 KMAF 030521
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with southeasterly winds will continue through the
forecast period, with gusts to 20KT possible Thursday afternoon
which will diminish after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to current forecast, as persistence rules.  WV
imagery shows an upper trough along the upper Texas Gulf coast,
making an intrusion into a ridge otherwise centered over Texas.
Models take the trough south of Texas by late Thursday, and shear it
out, allowing the ridge to re-establish.  This will result in
gradually increasing thicknesses into next week, peaking sometime
around Monday.  Temps should stay above-normal thru the extended,
although forecast soundings and past model performance suggest
staying toward the lwr to mid range of MOS numbers.

As for rain, the theta-e ridge continues to lie NW of West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico, oriented SW-NE.  This will tend to favor the
higher terrain for chances of convection each day, as minor
disturbances move thru SW flow aloft.  Until the ridge breaks down,
this looks to persist.  However, models hint at flattening the ridge
next week w/a series of troughs across the upper CONUS, possibly
opening a window for better chances of convection starting Mon/Tue
under zonal flow aloft.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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