Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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666
FXUS64 KMAF 160431
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1131 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas through Wednesday evening with no significant
weather expected. Winds will generally be south to southeast
across the area with stronger winds near 20 knots and gusty at
eastern terminals including MAF and FST. As a surface low and cold
front push south through eastern New Mexico, winds at CNM and PEQ
will become southwesterly but light in the evening. A cold front
switching winds to the north will be approaching CNM and HOB
terminals at 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
VFR with a few clouds moving in from the west.  Southerly winds
will drop off some overnight but pick back up by midday tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A warming trend is expected to continue tonight and Wednesday due
to a lee surface trough intensifying ahead of a broad and weak
upper level trough. The aforementioned upper level trough is
forecast to track across the plains early Thursday and drive a dry
cold front south through the forecast area Thursday morning. High
temperatures will cool several degrees behind this front Thursday
to below normal values most areas.

Deep southwesterly flow aloft will quickly develop by Friday and
continue Saturday ahead of and along a southern stream upper
level storm system. The trough and an associated significant lead
shortwave will be close enough by Friday afternoon for mention of
a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across extreme
western sections of southeast New Mexico and extreme west Texas.
The lead wave is forecast to track across the forecast area Friday
night so will include a slight chance to a chance of showers
and thunderstorms across the entire forecast area.

Saturday could be the first spring convective event. The main
upper level storm system will approach during the afternoon and
lift and instability will increase significantly ahead of a
dryline. Looking for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms to
develop along the dryline during the day and move east toward the
eastern Permian Basin in the evening with some potential for an
mesoscale system to develop. For now went with mainly chance
pops in the forecast area with the highest pops in the eastern
Basin Saturday evening. The upper level trough will pass by
later Saturday night with decreasing chances of precipitation
Sunday.

Beyond Sunday kept a dry forecast and went with a split in
guidance temperatures due to significant differences between the
models in the pattern aloft with temperatures expected to be
a few degrees above normal. Another storm system may impact
the area by next Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Cool and dry conditions will persist over the region this afternoon
with most locations seeing minimum afternoon RHs around 10 to 15
percent.  Southerly 20 foot winds of 15 to 25 mph will persist over
portions of the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains
until around sunset, so elevated fire weather conditions are
expected to continue through 7 pm MDT.  Even though temperatures
will drop near or below normal levels tonight, recovery will be poor
to fair in most areas.

The surface pressure gradient will tighten over the region tonight
and Wednesday, with most locations seeing at least 15 to 20 mph
sustained, southerly 20 foot winds Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures will warm to near normal levels Wednesday with minimum
afternoon RH/s dropping to 7 to 15 percent along and west of a
Snyder to Midland to Sanderson line.  Southwesterly 20 foot winds of
at least 15 to 25 mph are expected to occur in the Guadalupe
Mountains.  Since it is not clear cut whether these winds will be a
little stronger or not, will continue with the Fire Weather Watch
for the Guadalupes Wednesday afternoon and evening.  It does not
appear wind speeds will be strong enough, long enough, for critical
fire weather conditions over the rest of the forecast area.  The
Haines Index will be high over northern portions of the area
Wednesday afternoon, and over all of the forecast area Wednesday
night.  After poor to fair recovery along and west of a Maljamar to
Pecos to Big Bend line Wednesday night, a cold front will push south
over the area Thursday.  Northerly winds of 15 to 25 mph are
expected behind the front, but RH/s will stay above 15 percent in
the cooler air.  Portions of the Presidio Valley and Big Bend will
see RH/s drop to 10 to 15 percent Thursday afternoon.  However, 20
foot wind speeds will not be strong enough for critical fire weather
conditions.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

05
911
FXUS64 KMAF 152332
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
632 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with a few clouds moving in from the west.  Southerly winds
will drop off some overnight but pick back up by midday tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A warming trend is expected to continue tonight and Wednesday due
to a lee surface trough intensifying ahead of a broad and weak
upper level trough. The aforementioned upper level trough is
forecast to track across the plains early Thursday and drive a dry
cold front south through the forecast area Thursday morning. High
temperatures will cool several degrees behind this front Thursday
to below normal values most areas.

Deep southwesterly flow aloft will quickly develop by Friday and
continue Saturday ahead of and along a southern stream upper
level storm system. The trough and an associated significant lead
shortwave will be close enough by Friday afternoon for mention of
a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across extreme
western sections of southeast New Mexico and extreme west Texas.
The lead wave is forecast to track across the forecast area Friday
night so will include a slight chance to a chance of showers
and thunderstorms across the entire forecast area.

Saturday could be the first spring convective event. The main
upper level storm system will approach during the afternoon and
lift and instability will increase significantly ahead of a
dryline. Looking for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms to
develop along the dryline during the day and move east toward the
eastern Permian Basin in the evening with some potential for an
mesoscale system to develop. For now went with mainly chance
pops in the forecast area with the highest pops in the eastern
Basin Saturday evening. The upper level trough will pass by
later Saturday night with decreasing chances of precipitation
Sunday.

Beyond Sunday kept a dry forecast and went with a split in
guidance temperatures due to significant differences between the
models in the pattern aloft with temperatures expected to be
a few degrees above normal. Another storm system may impact
the area by next Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Cool and dry conditions will persist over the region this afternoon
with most locations seeing minimum afternoon RHs around 10 to 15
percent.  Southerly 20 foot winds of 15 to 25 mph will persist over
portions of the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains
until around sunset, so elevated fire weather conditions are
expected to continue through 7 pm MDT.  Even though temperatures
will drop near or below normal levels tonight, recovery will be poor
to fair in most areas.

The surface pressure gradient will tighten over the region tonight
and Wednesday, with most locations seeing at least 15 to 20 mph
sustained, southerly 20 foot winds Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures will warm to near normal levels Wednesday with minimum
afternoon RH/s dropping to 7 to 15 percent along and west of a
Snyder to Midland to Sanderson line.  Southwesterly 20 foot winds of
at least 15 to 25 mph are expected to occur in the Guadalupe
Mountains.  Since it is not clear cut whether these winds will be a
little stronger or not, will continue with the Fire Weather Watch
for the Guadalupes Wednesday afternoon and evening.  It does not
appear wind speeds will be strong enough, long enough, for critical
fire weather conditions over the rest of the forecast area.  The
Haines Index will be high over northern portions of the area
Wednesday afternoon, and over all of the forecast area Wednesday
night.  After poor to fair recovery along and west of a Maljamar to
Pecos to Big Bend line Wednesday night, a cold front will push south
over the area Thursday.  Northerly winds of 15 to 25 mph are
expected behind the front, but RH/s will stay above 15 percent in
the cooler air.  Portions of the Presidio Valley and Big Bend will
see RH/s drop to 10 to 15 percent Thursday afternoon.  However, 20
foot wind speeds will not be strong enough for critical fire weather
conditions.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$
460
FXUS64 KMAF 151955
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
255 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A warming trend is expected to continue tonight and Wednesday due
to a lee surface trough intensifying ahead of a broad and weak
upper level trough. The aforementioned upper level trough is
forecast to track across the plains early Thursday and drive a dry
cold front south through the forecast area Thursday morning. High
temperatures will cool several degrees behind this front Thursday
to below normal values most areas.

Deep southwesterly flow aloft will quickly develop by Friday and
continue Saturday ahead of and along a southern stream upper
level storm system. The trough and an associated significant lead
shortwave will be close enough by Friday afternoon for mention of
a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across extreme
western sections of southeast New Mexico and extreme west Texas.
The lead wave is forecast to track across the forecast area Friday
night so will include a slight chance to a chance of showers
and thunderstorms across the entire forecast area.

Saturday could be the first spring convective event. The main
upper level storm system will approach during the afternoon and
lift and instability will increase significantly ahead of a
dryline. Looking for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms to
develop along the dryline during the day and move east toward the
eastern Permian Basin in the evening with some potential for an
mesoscale system to develop. For now went with mainly chance
pops in the forecast area with the highest pops in the eastern
Basin Saturday evening. The upper level trough will pass by
later Saturday night with decreasing chances of precipitation
Sunday.

Beyond Sunday kept a dry forecast and went with a split in
guidance temperatures due to significant differences between the
models in the pattern aloft with temperatures expected to be
a few degrees above normal. Another storm system may impact
the area by next Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cool and dry conditions will persist over the region this afternoon
with most locations seeing minimum afternoon RHs around 10 to 15
percent.  Southerly 20 foot winds of 15 to 25 mph will persist over
portions of the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains
until around sunset, so elevated fire weather conditions are
expected to continue through 7 pm MDT.  Even though temperatures
will drop near or below normal levels tonight, recovery will be poor
to fair in most areas.

The surface pressure gradient will tighten over the region tonight
and Wednesday, with most locations seeing at least 15 to 20 mph
sustained, southerly 20 foot winds Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures will warm to near normal levels Wednesday with minimum
afternoon RH/s dropping to 7 to 15 percent along and west of a
Snyder to Midland to Sanderson line.  Southwesterly 20 foot winds of
at least 15 to 25 mph are expected to occur in the Guadalupe
Mountains.  Since it is not clear cut whether these winds will be a
little stronger or not, will continue with the Fire Weather Watch
for the Guadalupes Wednesday afternoon and evening.  It does not
appear wind speeds will be strong enough, long enough, for critical
fire weather conditions over the rest of the forecast area.  The
Haines Index will be high over northern portions of the area
Wednesday afternoon, and over all of the forecast area Wednesday
night.  After poor to fair recovery along and west of a Maljamar to
Pecos to Big Bend line Wednesday night, a cold front will push south
over the area Thursday.  Northerly winds of 15 to 25 mph are
expected behind the front, but RH/s will stay above 15 percent in
the cooler air.  Portions of the Presidio Valley and Big Bend will
see RH/s drop to 10 to 15 percent Thursday afternoon.  However, 20
foot wind speeds will not be strong enough for critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 40  78  48  73  /   0   0  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              39  78  48  73  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                40  87  48  73  /   0   0  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  42  78  53  82  /   0   0  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           46  86  49  78  /   0   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          46  82  48  72  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   38  80  46  70  /   0   0  10   0
MARFA TX                   28  78  38  74  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    41  78  48  74  /   0   0  10   0
ODESSA TX                  43  77  51  74  /   0   0  10   0
WINK TX                    39  85  52  76  /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

67/12
051
FXUS64 KMAF 151710
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1210 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.
Gusty southeast to south winds will stay up around 10 to 15kt
sustained for the most part during the forecast period due to a low
level jet tonight and a persistent, and fairly tight surface
pressure gradient, except for temporary post sunset, and sunrise,
lulls.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$
006
FXUS64 KMAF 151358
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
858 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to cancel the Freeze Warning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures are rising above freezing in most locations as of
15/14Z.  Therefore, will go ahead and cancel the remainder of the
Freeze Warning.  High temperatures this afternoon will rise into the
60s and 70s, roughly 10 to 15 degrees below normal.  Forecast
temperatures look to be in good shape, so there will be no other
changes at this time.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to issue a Fire Danger Statement for the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER...

Dry ambient conditions are prevailing over the forecast area this
morning, although recovery in most locations is fair to good.
Temperatures will warm later today, but remain below normal for mid
April.  Despite the cool temperatures, minimum afternoon RHs will
drop to 10 to 15 percent everywhere with some locations along the
Trans Pecos in West Texas dropping into the single digits.  The
surface pressure gradient will begin to tighten over the region
this afternoon, especially over southeast New Mexico.  Therefore,
think 20 foot winds will rise to 15 to around 20 mph sustained over
the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains.  A few
locations may hit critical fire weather criteria, but do not think
any locations will have these conditions for 3 hours or more.  Have
issued a Fire Danger Statement for the above areas for this
afternoon.  Conditions are still looking favorable Wednesday for
critical fire weather conditions in the Guadalupe Mountains, so
will leave the Fire Weather Watch alone.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.  Light and
variable winds will increase in strength out of the south by this
afternoon.  Some gusts will be likely during the afternoon hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

After a cold start this morning, temperatures will begin to
rebound with temperatures near seasonal norms for the next several
days. A weak cold front moving through the area Thursday will hold
temperatures back slightly with gradual warming resuming through
the weekend.

Models in agreement concerning shortwave kicking out across the
area ahead of trough pushing through the Southwest on Friday.
Though instability is limited Friday, should see at least isolated to
possibly scattered showers and thunderstorms initiating in the
mountains and moving northeast overnight. With approach of upper
trough on Saturday and Saturday evening and increasing low level
moisture, looking at greater instability on Saturday and greater
precipitation chances, particularly over southeast New Mexico as
well as the western and northern Permian Basin.

Model agreement breaks down after the weekend with the ECMWF
trending toward a ridge building over the area while the GFS digs
another trough into the southwest bringing a southwest flow aloft
to the area. Keeping rain chances low for the time being Sunday
through Wednesday. The warming trend is expected to continue into
next week.

FIRE WEATHER...

With warming temperatures and low dewpoints, relative humidities will
drop to 5 to 15 percent over southeast New Mexico and a large
portion of southwest Texas generally west of a line from Lamesa to
Sanderson and the Big Bend area on Wednesday. Winds across most of
this area will be 15 to 20 mph and gusty resulting in the
possibility of brief critical conditions Wednesday afternoon
through mid-evening. In the Guadalupe Mountains, winds may exceed
20 mph with higher gusts for an extended period of time with
relative humidity dropping to around 5 percent. Due to the
possibility of critical fire weather conditions over the Guadalupe
Mountains, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the Guadalupe
Mountains from 1 PM CDT (Noon MDT) to 10 PM CDT (9 PM MDT) Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  40  78  47  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              65  39  76  50  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                68  40  87  51  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  68  42  76  52  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  46  86  52  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  46  82  50  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   63  38  80  46  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   63  28  78  39  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  41  78  50  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  66  43  77  50  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    71  39  88  50  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

80/05
039
FXUS64 KMAF 151248
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
748 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to issue a Fire Danger Statement for the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry ambient conditions are prevailing over the forecast area this
morning, although recovery in most locations is fair to good.
Temperatures will warm later today, but remain below normal for mid
April.  Despite the cool temperatures, minimum afternoon RHs will
drop to 10 to 15 percent everywhere with some locations along the
Trans Pecos in West Texas dropping into the single digits.  The
surface pressure gradient will begin to tighten over the region
this afternoon, especially over southeast New Mexico.  Therefore,
think 20 foot winds will rise to 15 to around 20 mph sustained over
the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains.  A few
locations may hit critical fire weather criteria, but do not think
any locations will have these conditions for 3 hours or more.  Have
issued a Fire Danger Statement for the above areas for this
afternoon.  Conditions are still looking favorable Wednesday for
critical fire weather conditions in the Guadalupe Mountains, so
will leave the Fire Weather Watch alone.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.  Light and
variable winds will increase in strength out of the south by this
afternoon.  Some gusts will be likely during the afternoon hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

After a cold start this morning, temperatures will begin to
rebound with temperatures near seasonal norms for the next several
days. A weak cold front moving through the area Thursday will hold
temperatures back slightly with gradual warming resuming through
the weekend.

Models in agreement concerning shortwave kicking out across the
area ahead of trough pushing through the Southwest on Friday.
Though instability is limited Friday, should see at least isolated to
possibly scattered showers and thunderstorms initiating in the
mountains and moving northeast overnight. With approach of upper
trough on Saturday and Saturday evening and increasing low level
moisture, looking at greater instability on Saturday and greater
precipitation chances, particularly over southeast New Mexico as
well as the western and northern Permian Basin.

Model agreement breaks down after the weekend with the ECMWF
trending toward a ridge building over the area while the GFS digs
another trough into the southwest bringing a southwest flow aloft
to the area. Keeping rain chances low for the time being Sunday
through Wednesday. The warming trend is expected to continue into
next week.

FIRE WEATHER...

With warming temperatures and low dewpoints, relative humidities will
drop to 5 to 15 percent over southeast New Mexico and a large
portion of southwest Texas generally west of a line from Lamesa to
Sanderson and the Big Bend area on Wednesday. Winds across most of
this area will be 15 to 20 mph and gusty resulting in the
possibility of brief critical conditions Wednesday afternoon
through mid-evening. In the Guadalupe Mountains, winds may exceed
20 mph with higher gusts for an extended period of time with
relative humidity dropping to around 5 percent. Due to the
possibility of critical fire weather conditions over the Guadalupe
Mountains, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the Guadalupe
Mountains from 1 PM CDT (Noon MDT) to 10 PM CDT (9 PM MDT) Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  40  78  47  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              65  39  76  50  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                68  40  87  51  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  68  42  76  52  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  46  86  52  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  46  82  50  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   63  38  80  46  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   63  28  78  39  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  41  78  50  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  66  43  77  50  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    71  39  88  50  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  40  78  47  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              65  39  76  50  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                68  40  87  51  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  68  42  76  52  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  46  86  52  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  46  82  50  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   63  38  80  46  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   63  28  78  39  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  41  78  50  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  66  43  77  50  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    71  39  88  50  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM MDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FREEZE WARNING until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

80/05
303
FXUS64 KMAF 151127
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
622 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.  Light and
variable winds will increase in strength out of the south by this
afternoon.  Some gusts will be likely during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
After a cold start this morning, temperatures will begin to
rebound with temperatures near seasonal norms for the next several
days. A weak cold front moving through the area Thursday will hold
temperatures back slightly with gradual warming resuming through
the weekend.

Models in agreement concerning shortwave kicking out across the
area ahead of trough pushing through the Southwest on Friday.
Though instability is limited Friday, should see at least isolated to
possibly scattered showers and thunderstorms initiating in the
mountains and moving northeast overnight. With approach of upper
trough on Saturday and Saturday evening and increasing low level
moisture, looking at greater instability on Saturday and greater
precipitation chances, particularly over southeast New Mexico as
well as the western and northern Permian Basin.

Model agreement breaks down after the weekend with the ECMWF
trending toward a ridge building over the area while the GFS digs
another trough into the southwest bringing a southwest flow aloft
to the area. Keeping rain chances low for the time being Sunday
through Wednesday. The warming trend is expected to continue into
next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With warming temperatures and low dewpoints, relative humidities will
drop to 5 to 15 percent over southeast New Mexico and a large
portion of southwest Texas generally west of a line from Lamesa to
Sanderson and the Big Bend area on Wednesday. Winds across most of
this area will be 15 to 20 mph and gusty resulting in the
possibility of brief critical conditions Wednesday afternoon
through mid-evening. In the Guadalupe Mountains, winds may exceed
20 mph with higher gusts for an extended period of time with
relative humidity dropping to around 5 percent. Due to the
possibility of critical fire weather conditions over the Guadalupe
Mountains, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the Guadalupe
Mountains from 1 PM CDT (Noon MDT) to 10 PM CDT (9 PM MDT) Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  40  78  47  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              65  39  76  50  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                68  40  87  51  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  68  42  76  52  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  46  86  52  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  46  82  50  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   63  38  80  46  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   63  28  78  39  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  41  78  50  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  66  43  77  50  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    71  39  88  50  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM MDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FREEZE WARNING until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

80/05
471
FXUS64 KMAF 150850
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
350 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
After a cold start this morning, temperatures will begin to
rebound with temperatures near seasonal norms for the next several
days. A weak cold front moving through the area Thursday will hold
temperatures back slightly with gradual warming resuming through
the weekend.

Models in agreement concerning shortwave kicking out across the
area ahead of trough pushing through the Southwest on Friday.
Though instability is limited Friday, should see at least isolated to
possibly scattered showers and thunderstorms initiating in the
mountains and moving northeast overnight. With approach of upper
trough on Saturday and Saturday evening and increasing low level
moisture, looking at greater instability on Saturday and greater
precipitation chances, particularly over southeast New Mexico as
well as the western and northern Permian Basin.

Model agreement breaks down after the weekend with the ECMWF
trending toward a ridge building over the area while the GFS digs
another trough into the southwest bringing a southwest flow aloft
to the area. Keeping rain chances low for the time being Sunday
through Wednesday. The warming trend is expected to continue into
next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With warming temperatures and low dewpoints, relative humidities will
drop to 5 to 15 percent over southeast New Mexico and a large
portion of southwest Texas generally west of a line from Lamesa to
Sanderson and the Big Bend area on Wednesday. Winds across most of
this area will be 15 to 20 mph and gusty resulting in the
possibility of brief critical conditions Wednesday afternoon
through mid-evening. In the Guadalupe Mountains, winds may exceed
20 mph with higher gusts for an extended period of time with
relative humidity dropping to around 5 percent. Due to the
possibility of critical fire weather conditions over the Guadalupe
Mountains, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the Guadalupe
Mountains from 1 PM CDT (Noon MDT) to 10 PM CDT (9 PM MDT) Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  40  78  47  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              65  39  76  50  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                68  40  87  51  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  68  42  76  52  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  46  86  52  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  46  82  50  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   63  38  80  46  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   63  28  78  39  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  41  78  50  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  66  43  77  50  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    71  39  88  50  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM MDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FREEZE WARNING until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

80/05
596
FXUS64 KMAF 150524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.  Winds will
be light and variable during the overnight period before increasing
out of the south and southeast by Tuesday afternoon.  Some gusts
will be likely during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The cold front has moved into Mexico as the upper level trough
passes by to the north of the forecast area. Cool surface high
pressure is building into the area from the north and will settle
over the Permian Basin tonight. Light winds, clear skies and dry
air is expected underneath the cool high and freezing temperatures
are likely across much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
Will go ahead and upgrade the freeze watch to a freeze warning for
much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico for late tonight
through mid Tuesday morning.

Looks like a quiet and cool day Tuesday with the high moving off
to the east and a lee surface trough forming across the western
high plains. Temperatures will moderate to normal values
by Wednesday as the trough intensifies. Windy conditions will
likely develop in the Guadalupe Mountains with breezy conditions
in many sections of the plains. Later shifts will need to monitor
for potential high winds in the Guadalupe Mountains per 700
millibar wind forecast.

An upper level trough is forecast to track across the plains
early Thursday and drive a dry cold front south late in the day.
Minimal cooling is expected behind this front Thursday and
Friday.

Deep southwesterly flow aloft will develop Friday and Saturday
ahead of a southern stream upper level storm system. The trough
will be close enough by Saturday to mention a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms across western sections during the day
and areawide Saturday night.

Beyond Saturday night kept a dry forecast and went with a split in
guidance temperatures due to significant differences between the
models in the pattern aloft.

FIRE WEATHER...
NW flow aloft in the wake of yesterday`s trough will slowly
transition to zonal over the next couple of days as the next trough
approaches.  Wednesday afternoon...forecast soundings at KGDP mix
deeply, to well above H7, where 30-35kt westerlies are forecast.
This momentum transfer will sharpen up a dryline to the east, and
single-digit dewpoints will result in single-digit RH`s in the
Guadalupes Wednesday afternoon.  Thus, we`ve issued an fire wx watch
attm to cover this.  Adjacent plains will likely need to be added as
the event nears.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Tuesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM CDT /Midnight MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM
     MDT/ Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend
     Area...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...
     Ward...Winkler.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10
179
FXUS64 KMAF 142257
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
557 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period. Gusty north winds will subside
shortly and veer from the east and southeast through the next 24
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The cold front has moved into Mexico as the upper level trough
passes by to the north of the forecast area. Cool surface high
pressure is building into the area from the north and will settle
over the Permian Basin tonight. Light winds, clear skies and dry
air is expected underneath the cool high and freezing temperatures
are likely across much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
Will go ahead and upgrade the freeze watch to a freeze warning for
much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico for late tonight
through mid Tuesday morning.

Looks like a quiet and cool day Tuesday with the high moving off
to the east and a lee surface trough forming across the western
high plains. Temperatures will moderate to normal values
by Wednesday as the trough intensifies. Windy conditions will
likely develop in the Guadalupe Mountains with breezy conditions
in many sections of the plains. Later shifts will need to monitor
for potential high winds in the Guadalupe Mountains per 700
millibar wind forecast.

An upper level trough is forecast to track across the plains
early Thursday and drive a dry cold front south late in the day.
Minimal cooling is expected behind this front Thursday and
Friday.

Deep southwesterly flow aloft will develop Friday and Saturday
ahead of a southern stream upper level storm system. The trough
will be close enough by Saturday to mention a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms across western sections during the day
and areawide Saturday night.

Beyond Saturday night kept a dry forecast and went with a split in
guidance temperatures due to significant differences between the
models in the pattern aloft.

FIRE WEATHER...
NW flow aloft in the wake of yesterday`s trough will slowly
transition to zonal over the next couple of days as the next trough
approaches.  Wednesday afternoon...forecast soundings at KGDP mix
deeply, to well above H7, where 30-35kt westerlies are forecast.
This momentum transfer will sharpen up a dryline to the east, and
single-digit dewpoints will result in single-digit RH`s in the
Guadalupes Wednesday afternoon.  Thus, we`ve issued an fire wx watch
attm to cover this.  Adjacent plains will likely need to be added as
the event nears.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Tuesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM CDT /Midnight MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM
     MDT/ Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend
     Area...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...
     Ward...Winkler.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10
289
FXUS64 KMAF 141943
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
243 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The cold front has moved into Mexico as the upper level trough
passes by to the north of the forecast area. Cool surface high
pressure is building into the area from the north and will settle
over the Permian Basin tonight. Light winds, clear skies and dry
air is expected underneath the cool high and freezing temperatures
are likely across much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
Will go ahead and upgrade the freeze watch to a freeze warning for
much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico for late tonight
through mid Tuesday morning.

Looks like a quiet and cool day Tuesday with the high moving off
to the east and a lee surface trough forming across the western
high plains. Temperatures will moderate to normal values
by Wednesday as the trough intensifies. Windy conditions will
likely develop in the Guadalupe Mountains with breezy conditions
in many sections of the plains. Later shifts will need to monitor
for potential high winds in the Guadalupe Mountains per 700
millibar wind forecast.

An upper level trough is forecast to track across the plains
early Thursday and drive a dry cold front south late in the day.
Minimal cooling is expected behind this front Thursday and
Friday.

Deep southwesterly flow aloft will develop Friday and Saturday
ahead of a southern stream upper level storm system. The trough
will be close enough by Saturday to mention a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms across western sections during the day
and areawide Saturday night.

Beyond Saturday night kept a dry forecast and went with a split in
guidance temperatures due to significant differences between the
models in the pattern aloft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NW flow aloft in the wake of yesterday`s trough will slowly
transition to zonal over the next couple of days as the next trough
approaches.  Wednesday afternoon...forecast soundings at KGDP mix
deeply, to well above H7, where 30-35kt westerlies are forecast.
This momentum transfer will sharpen up a dryline to the east, and
single-digit dewpoints will result in single-digit RH`s in the
Guadalupes Wednesday afternoon.  Thus, we`ve issued an fire wx watch
attm to cover this.  Adjacent plains will likely need to be added as
the event nears.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 29  65  41  76  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              30  64  40  78  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                29  69  41  86  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  38  68  43  76  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           34  70  47  88  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          32  63  47  76  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   25  65  40  80  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   24  64  27  78  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    30  65  41  79  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  31  65  43  77  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    31  71  40  84  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Tuesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM CDT /Midnight MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM
     MDT/ Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend
     Area...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...
     Ward...Winkler.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44/12
395
FXUS64 KMAF 141830
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
130 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Wind Advisories have expired, and high winds have fallen below
warning criteria in the Guadalupes. We`ll do a quick update to
cancel the High Wind Warning, and clean up the grids. Updates out shortly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough swinging across the Rockies overnight and
onto the plains today will bring a drastic change in wx to the
region.  This trough is pushing a strong cold front through the
area this morning.  It has been very gusty behind the front with
some locations reporting gusts over 40kts... blowing dust can be
expected over most of the region this morning.  This front is
expected to reach the Rio Grande by sunrise.  An upper ridge builds
in behind the trough for a few days of mild wx.  Next upper trough
will impact the area Thursday.

A High Wind Warning remains in effect most of the day for the
Guadalupe mountains with a Wind Advisory until 18z for the area
except Marfa Plateau and Big Bend.  During the afternoon wind speeds
are expected to decrease as the pressure gradient relaxes.

The Highs last Saturday were in the 90s.  Highs today will be in the
50s for most of the region with 60s for the Pecos River valley and
near the Rio Grande.  Strong cold air advection will continue through
the day.  Will have post frontal clouds moving down across the
Permian Basin this morning but these will dissipate during the day.
By tonight skies will be mostly clear and wind speeds will become
light.  This will result in very efficient radiational cooling in
the dry air.  Late tonight/early tomorrow much of the region may
receive its first freeze in nearly a month.  This is a couple weeks
past the average last freeze date so will continue the Freeze Watch
in effect Tuesday morning for most of the CWA.  The cooldown will be
brief as a south wind and warmer temperatures return Tuesday with
highs back into the 60s and 70s.  Will have another cold front
Thursday but will not be as strong.  By the weekend normal
temperatures return.

Currently there are snow showers over eastern NM and the Panhandle
but this precipitation is tracking east and not expected it to make
it down into the area.  There is hope for some rain by next weekend
as models raise pops and increase qpf but it is too far out to
mention at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 29  65  41  76  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              30  64  40  78  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                29  69  41  86  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  38  68  43  76  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           34  70  47  88  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          32  63  47  76  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   25  65  40  80  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   24  64  27  78  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    30  65  41  79  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  31  65  43  77  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    31  71  40  84  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Tuesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM CDT /Midnight MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM
     MDT/ Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend
     Area...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...
     Ward...Winkler.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44/12
018
FXUS64 KMAF 141739
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1239 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Northerly post-frontal
winds will subside over the next few hours as pressure gradients
slacken. Return flow resumes Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014/

UPDATE...

Updated first period for pops.

DISCUSSION...
Went ahead and updated forecast to add isolated snow showers this
morning. Current radar trends have a few light snow showers
moving in from the west... could see a flurry in Tatum.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Please see 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Cold front has moved through all TAF sites as of 11Z. Main
aviation concerns center around strong winds and MVFR ceilings
this morning. Tight pressure gradient across the area will keep
winds elevated around 20 kts with higher gusts to 30 kts possible
through 17z. As the surface pressure gradient relaxes, wind speeds
will decrease this afternoon and become light this evening. MVFR
stratus will prevail across most sites this before lifting/moving
east around 17-18z. Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the
remainder of the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough swinging across the Rockies overnight and
onto the plains today will bring a drastic change in wx to the
region.  This trough is pushing a strong cold front through the
area this morning.  It has been very gusty behind the front with
some locations reporting gusts over 40kts... blowing dust can be
expected over most of the region this morning.  This front is
expected to reach the Rio Grande by sunrise.  An upper ridge builds
in behind the trough for a few days of mild wx.  Next upper trough
will impact the area Thursday.

A High Wind Warning remains in effect most of the day for the
Guadalupe mountains with a Wind Advisory until 18z for the area
except Marfa Plateau and Big Bend.  During the afternoon wind speeds
are expected to decrease as the pressure gradient relaxes.

The Highs last Saturday were in the 90s.  Highs today will be in the
50s for most of the region with 60s for the Pecos River valley and
near the Rio Grande.  Strong cold air advection will continue through
the day.  Will have post frontal clouds moving down across the
Permian Basin this morning but these will dissipate during the day.
By tonight skies will be mostly clear and wind speeds will become
light.  This will result in very efficient radiational cooling in
the dry air.  Late tonight/early tomorrow much of the region may
receive its first freeze in nearly a month.  This is a couple weeks
past the average last freeze date so will continue the Freeze Watch
in effect Tuesday morning for most of the CWA.  The cooldown will be
brief as a south wind and warmer temperatures return Tuesday with
highs back into the 60s and 70s.  Will have another cold front
Thursday but will not be as strong.  By the weekend normal
temperatures return.

Currently there are snow showers over eastern NM and the Panhandle
but this precipitation is tracking east and not expected it to make
it down into the area.  There is hope for some rain by next weekend
as models raise pops and increase qpf but it is too far out to
mention at this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Tuesday morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     WIND ADVISORY until Noon MDT today FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Tuesday morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44
657
FXUS64 KMAF 141139
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
639 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.UPDATE...

Updated first period for pops.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Went ahead and updated forecast to add isolated snow showers this
morning. Current radar trends have a few light snow showers
moving in from the west... could see a flurry in Tatum.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Please see 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Cold front has moved through all TAF sites as of 11Z. Main
aviation concerns center around strong winds and MVFR ceilings
this morning. Tight pressure gradient across the area will keep
winds elevated around 20 kts with higher gusts to 30 kts possible
through 17z. As the surface pressure gradient relaxes, wind speeds
will decrease this afternoon and become light this evening. MVFR
stratus will prevail across most sites this before lifting/moving
east around 17-18z. Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the
remainder of the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough swinging across the Rockies overnight and
onto the plains today will bring a drastic change in wx to the
region.  This trough is pushing a strong cold front through the
area this morning.  It has been very gusty behind the front with
some locations reporting gusts over 40kts... blowing dust can be
expected over most of the region this morning.  This front is
expected to reach the Rio Grande by sunrise.  An upper ridge builds
in behind the trough for a few days of mild wx.  Next upper trough
will impact the area Thursday.

A High Wind Warning remains in effect most of the day for the
Guadalupe mountains with a Wind Advisory until 18z for the area
except Marfa Plateau and Big Bend.  During the afternoon wind speeds
are expected to decrease as the pressure gradient relaxes.

The Highs last Saturday were in the 90s.  Highs today will be in the
50s for most of the region with 60s for the Pecos River valley and
near the Rio Grande.  Strong cold air advection will continue through
the day.  Will have post frontal clouds moving down across the
Permian Basin this morning but these will dissipate during the day.
By tonight skies will be mostly clear and wind speeds will become
light.  This will result in very efficient radiational cooling in
the dry air.  Late tonight/early tomorrow much of the region may
receive its first freeze in nearly a month.  This is a couple weeks
past the average last freeze date so will continue the Freeze Watch
in effect Tuesday morning for most of the CWA.  The cooldown will be
brief as a south wind and warmer temperatures return Tuesday with
highs back into the 60s and 70s.  Will have another cold front
Thursday but will not be as strong.  By the weekend normal
temperatures return.

Currently there are snow showers over eastern NM and the Panhandle
but this precipitation is tracking east and not expected it to make
it down into the area.  There is hope for some rain by next weekend
as models raise pops and increase qpf but it is too far out to
mention at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 53  30  64  39  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              54  32  63  40  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                56  32  68  40  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  66  39  67  43  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  35  68  45  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  32  62  45  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   51  26  64  38  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   58  27  63  30  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  30  64  40  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  54  32  64  41  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  30  70  39  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Tuesday morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     WIND ADVISORY until Noon MDT today FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Tuesday morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$
736
FXUS64 KMAF 141123
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
623 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front has moved through all TAF sites as of 11Z. Main
aviation concerns center around strong winds and MVFR ceilings
this morning. Tight pressure gradient across the area will keep
winds elevated around 20 kts with higher gusts to 30 kts possible
through 17z. As the surface pressure gradient relaxes, wind speeds
will decrease this afternoon and become light this evening. MVFR
stratus will prevail across most sites this before lifting/moving
east around 17-18z. Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the
remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough swinging across the Rockies overnight and
onto the plains today will bring a drastic change in wx to the
region.  This trough is pushing a strong cold front through the
area this morning.  It has been very gusty behind the front with
some locations reporting gusts over 40kts... blowing dust can be
expected over most of the region this morning.  This front is
expected to reach the Rio Grande by sunrise.  An upper ridge builds
in behind the trough for a few days of mild wx.  Next upper trough
will impact the area Thursday.

A High Wind Warning remains in effect most of the day for the
Guadalupe mountains with a Wind Advisory until 18z for the area
except Marfa Plateau and Big Bend.  During the afternoon wind speeds
are expected to decrease as the pressure gradient relaxes.

The Highs last Saturday were in the 90s.  Highs today will be in the
50s for most of the region with 60s for the Pecos River valley and
near the Rio Grande.  Strong cold air advection will continue through
the day.  Will have post frontal clouds moving down across the
Permian Basin this morning but these will dissipate during the day.
By tonight skies will be mostly clear and wind speeds will become
light.  This will result in very efficient radiational cooling in
the dry air.  Late tonight/early tomorrow much of the region may
receive its first freeze in nearly a month.  This is a couple weeks
past the average last freeze date so will continue the Freeze Watch
in effect Tuesday morning for most of the CWA.  The cooldown will be
brief as a south wind and warmer temperatures return Tuesday with
highs back into the 60s and 70s.  Will have another cold front
Thursday but will not be as strong.  By the weekend normal
temperatures return.

Currently there are snow showers over eastern NM and the Panhandle
but this precipitation is tracking east and not expected it to make
it down into the area.  There is hope for some rain by next weekend
as models raise pops and increase qpf but it is too far out to
mention at this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Tuesday morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     WIND ADVISORY until Noon MDT today FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Tuesday morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

13
857
FXUS64 KMAF 140804
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
304 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough swinging across the Rockies overnight and
onto the plains today will bring a drastic change in wx to the
region.  This trough is pushing a strong cold front through the
area this morning.  It has been very gusty behind the front with
some locations reporting gusts over 40kts... blowing dust can be
expected over most of the region this morning.  This front is
expected to reach the Rio Grande by sunrise.  An upper ridge builds
in behind the trough for a few days of mild wx.  Next upper trough
will impact the area Thursday.

A High Wind Warning remains in effect most of the day for the
Guadalupe mountains with a Wind Advisory until 18z for the area
except Marfa Plateau and Big Bend.  During the afternoon wind speeds
are expected to decrease as the pressure gradient relaxes.

The Highs last Saturday were in the 90s.  Highs today will be in the
50s for most of the region with 60s for the Pecos River valley and
near the Rio Grande.  Strong cold air advection will continue through
the day.  Will have post frontal clouds moving down across the
Permian Basin this morning but these will dissipate during the day.
By tonight skies will be mostly clear and wind speeds will become
light.  This will result in very efficient radiational cooling in
the dry air.  Late tonight/early tomorrow much of the region may
receive its first freeze in nearly a month.  This is a couple weeks
past the average last freeze date so will continue the Freeze Watch
in effect Tuesday morning for most of the CWA.  The cooldown will be
brief as a south wind and warmer temperatures return Tuesday with
highs back into the 60s and 70s.  Will have another cold front
Thursday but will not be as strong.  By the weekend normal
temperatures return.

Currently there are snow showers over eastern NM and the Panhandle
but this precipitation is tracking east and not expected it to make
it down into the area.  There is hope for some rain by next weekend
as models raise pops and increase qpf but it is too far out to
mention at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 53  30  64  39  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              54  32  63  40  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                56  32  68  40  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  66  39  67  43  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  35  68  45  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  32  62  45  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   51  26  64  38  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   58  27  63  30  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  30  64  40  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  54  32  64  41  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  30  70  39  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Tuesday morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     WIND ADVISORY until Noon MDT today FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Tuesday morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

13/72
023
FXUS64 KMAF 140539
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1239 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Strong cold front will push across TAF sites overnight. Having already
moved through KHOB as of 14/05z, the front should be through KMAF by
14/06z. Main aviation concerns will revolve around gusty northerly
winds (20-25 kts with gusts around 35 kts) behind the front, temporary
visibility obstructions due to dust, and potential for MVFR
ceilings behind the front. Winds will remain elevated throughout
the day and decrease when the surface pressure gradient relaxes as
a surface high settles into the area after 15/02z. Satellite
imagery shows an MVFR stratus deck building south behind the front
in NM, with KROW reporting OVC029. With dry air in place over the
area, confidence is low on the development of MVFR ceilings into
area TAF sites. Forecast soundings keep broken to scattered
ceilings in the VFR range. Have bumped all ceilings up to VFR and
will handle any ceiling changes with amendments.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough ejecting thru the Central Plains,
while a sfc analysis shows a dryline has sharpened up over the
eastern tier of zones. At 18Z, KMAF had a Td of 22F, whereas Big
Lake had a Td of 60F.  Area radars show convection trying to develop
along/east of the dryline, but well out of our FA.  Latest obs/RTMA
analysis indicates Red Flag conditions ongoing over the northern
half of the CWA, not yet having developed south.  The NAM once again
initialized better on sfc moisture and winds than did the GFS, and
remains the preferred model.  That said, latest run develops
critical fire wx conditions south into the Big Bend area later this
afternoon as the dryline continues mixing east, so the current RFW
looks good.

Meanwhile, to the north, a cold front was moving into the Texas
Panhandle, and forecast to backdoor into the Wrn Low Rolling Plains
just after 06Z, w/buffer soundings suggesting fropa at KMAF just
after 07Z.  A very tight MSL pressure gradient on the order of
10mb/110nm will accompany the front, and w/dry soils, a wall of dust
also.  We`ll expand the wind advisory west and south for areas after
midnight, and even lingering into Monday morning for areas SW.
Temps Monday afternoon should come in well below normal...more
representative of early January than mid April, as a secondary
trough follows the first.  A big question remains as to where it
will freeze Tuesday morning, as there is a temp spread among the
models.  MET guidance looks unreasonably cold, whereas the MAV looks
closer to reality.  Forecast soundings, clear skies, and decoupling
suggest a model blend would be best attm.  We`ll continue w/an SPS
emphasizing a freeze for now, and issue a warning for specific areas
either w/tonight or tomorrow`s package.

NW flow aloft follows the second trough, and temps begin slowly
warming to normal by midweek.  Wednesday night, models push a second
cold front into the area, w/the GFS/DGEX being stronger than the
ECMWF/CMC.  Both the ECMWF (warmest) and GFS (coldest) are outliers,
so we`ve used a model blend of the two attm, which would put temps
later into Saturday just south of normal.  By the weekend, models
develop a closed upper low over SoCal, leaving West Texas/SE NM
under SW flow aloft.  Moisture return looks excellent by this time,
w/forecasted dewpoints in the 50s area-wide by Saturday afternoon.
This looks to be the next best chance of rain for the area, w/models
breaking out convection ahead of the trough.  Of course, models are
out of sync on timing of the trough, w/the GFS the most aggressive,
the ECMWF lagging back in CA, and the DGEX in between.  For this
reason, we`ll leave the grids dry for now, and just insert higher
pops/increased cloud cover over the area
Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WATCH from late Monday night through Tuesday morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     WIND ADVISORY until Noon MDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Tuesday morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

13
129
FXUS64 KMAF 140150
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
850 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

.UPDATE...

Forecast has been updated to now include a Freeze Watch for
Tuesday morning for most of the area. High pressure will settle in
Monday night with light winds and clear skies expected.
Temperatures will fall to or below freezing by sunrise Tuesday
morning with a hard freeze (temps <28 degrees) possible across the
northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Temperatures will
warm above freezing by mid-morning Tuesday. Most areas have not
seen a freeze since mid-March and the growing season is in full
swing. This late season freeze could damage or kill any sensitive
vegetation if precautions are not taken.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
A cold front has been holding in the southern Texas Panhandle this
afternoon, but will begin moving south again shortly arriving in
the area around midnight. Winds will shift from the north and
become very gusty for about 12 hours behind the front before
diminishing late in the TAF period. MVFR CIGs are expected near
12Z and will hang around for only a few hours before moving
southeast.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough ejecting thru the Central Plains,
while a sfc analysis shows a dryline has sharpened up over the
eastern tier of zones. At 18Z, KMAF had a Td of 22F, whereas Big
Lake had a Td of 60F.  Area radars show convection trying to develop
along/east of the dryline, but well out of our FA.  Latest obs/RTMA
analysis indicates Red Flag conditions ongoing over the northern
half of the CWA, not yet having developed south.  The NAM once again
initialized better on sfc moisture and winds than did the GFS, and
remains the preferred model.  That said, latest run develops
critical fire wx conditions south into the Big Bend area later this
afternoon as the dryline continues mixing east, so the current RFW
looks good.

Meanwhile, to the north, a cold front was moving into the Texas
Panhandle, and forecast to backdoor into the Wrn Low Rolling Plains
just after 06Z, w/buffer soundings suggesting fropa at KMAF just
after 07Z.  A very tight MSL pressure gradient on the order of
10mb/110nm will accompany the front, and w/dry soils, a wall of dust
also.  We`ll expand the wind advisory west and south for areas after
midnight, and even lingering into Monday morning for areas SW.
Temps Monday afternoon should come in well below normal...more
representative of early January than mid April, as a secondary
trough follows the first.  A big question remains as to where it
will freeze Tuesday morning, as there is a temp spread among the
models.  MET guidance looks unreasonably cold, whereas the MAV looks
closer to reality.  Forecast soundings, clear skies, and decoupling
suggest a model blend would be best attm.  We`ll continue w/an SPS
emphasizing a freeze for now, and issue a warning for specific areas
either w/tonight or tomorrow`s package.

NW flow aloft follows the second trough, and temps begin slowly
warming to normal by midweek.  Wednesday night, models push a second
cold front into the area, w/the GFS/DGEX being stronger than the
ECMWF/CMC.  Both the ECMWF (warmest) and GFS (coldest) are outliers,
so we`ve used a model blend of the two attm, which would put temps
later into Saturday just south of normal.  By the weekend, models
develop a closed upper low over SoCal, leaving West Texas/SE NM
under SW flow aloft.  Moisture return looks excellent by this time,
w/forecasted dewpoints in the 50s area-wide by Saturday afternoon.
This looks to be the next best chance of rain for the area, w/models
breaking out convection ahead of the trough.  Of course, models are
out of sync on timing of the trough, w/the GFS the most aggressive,
the ECMWF lagging back in CA, and the DGEX in between.  For this
reason, we`ll leave the grids dry for now, and just insert higher
pops/increased cloud cover over the area
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 38  51  31  63  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              38  54  32  62  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                41  54  30  66  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  51  66  40  66  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           43  58  34  66  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          35  49  32  61  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   35  50  26  61  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   43  55  28  59  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    39  56  30  63  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  38  54  32  63  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    44  59  29  69  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 11 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     FREEZE WATCH from late Monday night through Tuesday morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     WIND ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon MDT Monday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until Midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     FREEZE WATCH from late Monday night through Tuesday morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

29
994
FXUS64 KMAF 132312
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A cold front has been holding in the southern Texas Panhandle this
afternoon, but will begin moving south again shortly arriving in
the area around midnight. Winds will shift from the north and
become very gusty for about 12 hours behind the front before
diminishing late in the TAF period. MVFR CIGs are expected near
12Z and will hang around for only a few hours before moving
southeast.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough ejecting thru the Central Plains,
while a sfc analysis shows a dryline has sharpened up over the
eastern tier of zones. At 18Z, KMAF had a Td of 22F, whereas Big
Lake had a Td of 60F.  Area radars show convection trying to develop
along/east of the dryline, but well out of our FA.  Latest obs/RTMA
analysis indicates Red Flag conditions ongoing over the northern
half of the CWA, not yet having developed south.  The NAM once again
initialized better on sfc moisture and winds than did the GFS, and
remains the preferred model.  That said, latest run develops
critical fire wx conditions south into the Big Bend area later this
afternoon as the dryline continues mixing east, so the current RFW
looks good.

Meanwhile, to the north, a cold front was moving into the Texas
Panhandle, and forecast to backdoor into the Wrn Low Rolling Plains
just after 06Z, w/buffer soundings suggesting fropa at KMAF just
after 07Z.  A very tight MSL pressure gradient on the order of
10mb/110nm will accompany the front, and w/dry soils, a wall of dust
also.  We`ll expand the wind advisory west and south for areas after
midnight, and even lingering into Monday morning for areas SW.
Temps Monday afternoon should come in well below normal...more
representative of early January than mid April, as a secondary
trough follows the first.  A big question remains as to where it
will freeze Tuesday morning, as there is a temp spread among the
models.  MET guidance looks unreasonably cold, whereas the MAV looks
closer to reality.  Forecast soundings, clear skies, and decoupling
suggest a model blend would be best attm.  We`ll continue w/an SPS
emphasizing a freeze for now, and issue a warning for specific areas
either w/tonight or tomorrow`s package.

NW flow aloft follows the second trough, and temps begin slowly
warming to normal by midweek.  Wednesday night, models push a second
cold front into the area, w/the GFS/DGEX being stronger than the
ECMWF/CMC.  Both the ECMWF (warmest) and GFS (coldest) are outliers,
so we`ve used a model blend of the two attm, which would put temps
later into Saturday just south of normal.  By the weekend, models
develop a closed upper low over SoCal, leaving West Texas/SE NM
under SW flow aloft.  Moisture return looks excellent by this time,
w/forecasted dewpoints in the 50s area-wide by Saturday afternoon.
This looks to be the next best chance of rain for the area, w/models
breaking out convection ahead of the trough.  Of course, models are
out of sync on timing of the trough, w/the GFS the most aggressive,
the ECMWF lagging back in CA, and the DGEX in between.  For this
reason, we`ll leave the grids dry for now, and just insert higher
pops/increased cloud cover over the area
Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 11 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     WIND ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM MDT Monday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until Midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.


&&

$$

10
739
FXUS64 KMAF 131938
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
238 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough ejecting thru the Central Plains,
while a sfc analysis shows a dryline has sharpened up over the
eastern tier of zones. At 18Z, KMAF had a Td of 22F, whereas Big
Lake had a Td of 60F.  Area radars show convection trying to develop
along/east of the dryline, but well out of our FA.  Latest obs/RTMA
analysis indicates Red Flag conditions ongoing over the northern
half of the CWA, not yet having developed south.  The NAM once again
initialized better on sfc moisture and winds than did the GFS, and
remains the preferred model.  That said, latest run develops
critical fire wx conditions south into the Big Bend area later this
afternoon as the dryline continues mixing east, so the current RFW
looks good.

Meanwhile, to the north, a cold front was moving into the Texas
Panhandle, and forecast to backdoor into the Wrn Low Rolling Plains
just after 06Z, w/buffer soundings suggesting fropa at KMAF just
after 07Z.  A very tight MSL pressure gradient on the order of
10mb/110nm will accompany the front, and w/dry soils, a wall of dust
also.  We`ll expand the wind advisory west and south for areas after
midnight, and even lingering into Monday morning for areas SW.
Temps Monday afternoon should come in well below normal...more
representative of early January than mid April, as a secondary
trough follows the first.  A big question remains as to where it
will freeze Tuesday morning, as there is a temp spread among the
models.  MET guidance looks unreasonably cold, whereas the MAV looks
closer to reality.  Forecast soundings, clear skies, and decoupling
suggest a model blend would be best attm.  We`ll continue w/an SPS
emphasizing a freeze for now, and issue a warning for specific areas
either w/tonight or tomorrow`s package.

NW flow aloft follows the second trough, and temps begin slowly
warming to normal by midweek.  Wednesday night, models push a second
cold front into the area, w/the GFS/DGEX being stronger than the
ECMWF/CMC.  Both the ECMWF (warmest) and GFS (coldest) are outliers,
so we`ve used a model blend of the two attm, which would put temps
later into Saturday just south of normal.  By the weekend, models
develop a closed upper low over SoCal, leaving West Texas/SE NM
under SW flow aloft.  Moisture return looks excellent by this time,
w/forecasted dewpoints in the 50s area-wide by Saturday afternoon.
This looks to be the next best chance of rain for the area, w/models
breaking out convection ahead of the trough.  Of course, models are
out of sync on timing of the trough, w/the GFS the most aggressive,
the ECMWF lagging back in CA, and the DGEX in between.  For this
reason, we`ll leave the grids dry for now, and just insert higher
pops/increased cloud cover over the area
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 38  51  28  63  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              38  54  30  62  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                41  54  31  66  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  51  66  35  66  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           43  58  32  66  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          35  49  29  61  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   35  50  28  61  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   43  55  25  59  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    39  56  30  63  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  38  54  30  63  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    44  59  30  69  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 11 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     WIND ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM MDT Monday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until Midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.


&&

$$

12/44
558
FXUS64 KMAF 131736
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1236 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect windy but VFR conditions this afternoon at the terminals
with west winds of generally 20 to 30 mph and gusty. Winds should
decrease significantly by shortly after sunset. A strong cold front
will plunge through the terminals after 06z tonight and result in
a wind shift to the north with speeds increasing again to 20 to
30 mph and gusty. MVFR ceilings are expected at most terminals
by late tonight and continuing Monday morning.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Please see 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Virga showers will continue to cause localized gusty winds at KMAF
and KPEQ through 14z; have included a TEMPO group to account for
this as they push east with an upper level disturbance. South to
southwesterly winds will increase mid-morning and remain gusty
through sunset. Expect mid and high clouds to clear out mid-morning
as well. Clearing line currently noted on satellite (as of 1130z)
along a Lubbock-Hobbs-Van Horn line. VFR conditions will prevail
through the majority of the TAF period until a strong cold front
moves south across TAF sites between 07 and 11z, causing a gusty
wind shift to the north. Blowing dust will also accompany the front;
have introduced this into northern TAF sites and will let later
shifts adjust as necessary. An MVFR stratus deck will follow behind
the front towards after 09z and likely impact all sites except KFST
and KPEQ by 12z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
In the upper levels a shortwave trough will move over the area today
with a stronger trough swinging across NM and TX on Monday.  This
will push a strong front through the area late tonight and bring a
significant change in wx to W TX and SE NM.  After that an upper ridge
builds in from the west for a few days before another upper trough
swings across the region Thursday.

At the surface will have a strong cold front blow through the area
tonight bringing unseasonably cold temperatures to the region.  Some
locations along and north of the Pecos River may see a light freeze
Tuesday morning.  Will issue an SPS discussing possible late season
freeze.  Another cold front blows through the area Thursday but will
not be as strong.

Temperatures... overnight temperatures have been unusually high as
wind and clouds have not allowed temps to drop.  Will have another
day of above normal highs today with readings in the 80s and lower
90s.  The front tonight will drive lows into the 40s with a few 30s
north.  Monday will be much cooler with highs only in the 50s north
and 60s south.  The front will have strong cold air advection with
it.  Overnight will have clearing skies along with the wind becoming
light.  This will result in Tuesday being the coldest morning in
nearly a month with lows in the 30s and some locations falling to
near freezing or below.  Readings Tuesday warm back into the 60s and
70s with temperatures continuing to climb the next few days.

WIND... very gusty winds continued into the night time hours due to
a tight pressure gradient from a surface low over the panhandle with
a trough extending southward across the area.  Also had some high
based showers moving over the area producing virga and locally
increased wind gusts.  Will have a west to southwest wind today
across the area... may increase above 30 mph across parts of the
west.  Have a Wind advisory for Culberson... Reeves... and Jeff
Davis counties today.  Have issued a High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupes Mountains today and extended it through tomorrow replacing
the High Wind Watch.  When the front hits tonight a strong north
wind will spread southward across the area.  Models show the front
has a very tight packing of isobars behind it indicating a very
tight pressure gradient.  Expect the front to be moving into the
northern CWA around midnight and quickly push to the Rio Grand by
12z Monday.  Have issued a Wind Advisory tonight for most locations
north of the Pecos River.  Expect blowing dust over most of the
area tonight.  The wind comes back around to the south Tuesday as a
warm up begins. Another cold front comes through Thursday but will
not be as strong as the one tonight.

Rain... may have some lingering high based showers today over the
south but with no measurable rain expected will leave mention out
of the forecast.  Have a dry forecast through next weekend although
long range guidance/qpf does try to develop some precip next
Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty westerly winds will continue to push very dry air across
the region today. As the pressure gradient associated with a surface
low (located over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles as of 08z)
tightens mid-morning, 20 ft wind speeds will increase to around
20-30 MPH. Decreasing cloud cover today will also allow stronger
wind speeds to mix to the surface, with stronger gusts up to 35 MPH
possible. Minimum RHs will fall to less than 10 percent today west
of a dry line that will mix well east of the forecast area by late
afternoon (roughly to a Breckenridge-San Angelo-Langtry line). A Red
Flag Warning is in effect for all of West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico through 12 AM CDT/11 PM MDT. A strong cold front will push
south across the area late tonight and mitigate fire weather
concerns through the beginning of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 86  41  54  31  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              87  41  54  32  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                87  43  57  34  /   0  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  92  54  64  40  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           91  45  58  36  /  10   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  38  49  34  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   84  39  52  29  /   0  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   79  40  56  24  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    88  42  55  32  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  88  42  56  34  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    90  44  60  32  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 11 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     WIND ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM MDT Monday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until Noon MDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until Midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until Noon MDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

13/72
948
FXUS64 KMAF 131141
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
641 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Virga showers will continue to cause localized gusty winds at KMAF
and KPEQ through 14z; have included a TEMPO group to account for
this as they push east with an upper level disturbance. South to
southwesterly winds will increase mid-morning and remain gusty
through sunset. Expect mid and high clouds to clear out mid-morning
as well. Clearing line currently noted on satellite (as of 1130z)
along a Lubbock-Hobbs-Van Horn line. VFR conditions will prevail
through the majority of the TAF period until a strong cold front
moves south across TAF sites between 07 and 11z, causing a gusty
wind shift to the north. Blowing dust will also accompany the front;
have introduced this into northern TAF sites and will let later
shifts adjust as necessary. An MVFR stratus deck will follow behind
the front towards after 09z and likely impact all sites except KFST
and KPEQ by 12z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
In the upper levels a shortwave trough will move over the area today
with a stronger trough swinging across NM and TX on Monday.  This
will push a strong front through the area late tonight and bring a
significant change in wx to W TX and SE NM.  After that an upper ridge
builds in from the west for a few days before another upper trough
swings across the region Thursday.

At the surface will have a strong cold front blow through the area
tonight bringing unseasonably cold temperatures to the region.  Some
locations along and north of the Pecos River may see a light freeze
Tuesday morning.  Will issue an SPS discussing possible late season
freeze.  Another cold front blows through the area Thursday but will
not be as strong.

Temperatures... overnight temperatures have been unusually high as
wind and clouds have not allowed temps to drop.  Will have another
day of above normal highs today with readings in the 80s and lower
90s.  The front tonight will drive lows into the 40s with a few 30s
north.  Monday will be much cooler with highs only in the 50s north
and 60s south.  The front will have strong cold air advection with
it.  Overnight will have clearing skies along with the wind becoming
light.  This will result in Tuesday being the coldest morning in
nearly a month with lows in the 30s and some locations falling to
near freezing or below.  Readings Tuesday warm back into the 60s and
70s with temperatures continuing to climb the next few days.

WIND... very gusty winds continued into the night time hours due to
a tight pressure gradient from a surface low over the panhandle with
a trough extending southward across the area.  Also had some high
based showers moving over the area producing virga and locally
increased wind gusts.  Will have a west to southwest wind today
across the area... may increase above 30 mph across parts of the
west.  Have a Wind advisory for Culberson... Reeves... and Jeff
Davis counties today.  Have issued a High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupes Mountains today and extended it through tomorrow replacing
the High Wind Watch.  When the front hits tonight a strong north
wind will spread southward across the area.  Models show the front
has a very tight packing of isobars behind it indicating a very
tight pressure gradient.  Expect the front to be moving into the
northern CWA around midnight and quickly push to the Rio Grand by
12z Monday.  Have issued a Wind Advisory tonight for most locations
north of the Pecos River.  Expect blowing dust over most of the
area tonight.  The wind comes back around to the south Tuesday as a
warm up begins. Another cold front comes through Thursday but will
not be as strong as the one tonight.

Rain... may have some lingering high based showers today over the
south but with no measurable rain expected will leave mention out
of the forecast.  Have a dry forecast through next weekend although
long range guidance/qpf does try to develop some precip next
Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty westerly winds will continue to push very dry air across
the region today. As the pressure gradient associated with a surface
low (located over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles as of 08z)
tightens mid-morning, 20 ft wind speeds will increase to around
20-30 MPH. Decreasing cloud cover today will also allow stronger
wind speeds to mix to the surface, with stronger gusts up to 35 MPH
possible. Minimum RHs will fall to less than 10 percent today west
of a dry line that will mix well east of the forecast area by late
afternoon (roughly to a Breckenridge-San Angelo-Langtry line). A Red
Flag Warning is in effect for all of West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico through 12 AM CDT/11 PM MDT. A strong cold front will push
south across the area late tonight and mitigate fire weather
concerns through the beginning of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 11 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     WIND ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM MDT Monday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until Noon MDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until Midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until Noon MDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

13
959
FXUS64 KMAF 130903
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
403 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
In the upper levels a shortwave trough will move over the area today
with a stronger trough swinging across NM and TX on Monday.  This
will push a strong front through the area late tonight and bring a
significant change in wx to W TX and SE NM.  After that an upper ridge
builds in from the west for a few days before another upper trough
swings across the region Thursday.

At the surface will have a strong cold front blow through the area
tonight bringing unseasonably cold temperatures to the region.  Some
locations along and north of the Pecos River may see a light freeze
Tuesday morning.  Will issue an SPS discussing possible late season
freeze.  Another cold front blows through the area Thursday but will
not be as strong.

Temperatures... overnight temperatures have been unusually high as
wind and clouds have not allowed temps to drop.  Will have another
day of above normal highs today with readings in the 80s and lower
90s.  The front tonight will drive lows into the 40s with a few 30s
north.  Monday will be much cooler with highs only in the 50s north
and 60s south.  The front will have strong cold air advection with
it.  Overnight will have clearing skies along with the wind becoming
light.  This will result in Tuesday being the coldest morning in
nearly a month with lows in the 30s and some locations falling to
near freezing or below.  Readings Tuesday warm back into the 60s and
70s with temperatures continuing to climb the next few days.

WIND... very gusty winds continued into the night time hours due to
a tight pressure gradient from a surface low over the panhandle with
a trough extending southward across the area.  Also had some high
based showers moving over the area producing virga and locally
increased wind gusts.  Will have a west to southwest wind today
across the area... may increase above 30 mph across parts of the
west.  Have a Wind advisory for Culberson... Reeves... and Jeff
Davis counties today.  Have issued a High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupes Mountains today and extended it through tomorrow replacing
the High Wind Watch.  When the front hits tonight a strong north
wind will spread southward across the area.  Models show the front
has a very tight packing of isobars behind it indicating a very
tight pressure gradient.  Expect the front to be moving into the
northern CWA around midnight and quickly push to the Rio Grand by
12z Monday.  Have issued a Wind Advisory tonight for most locations
north of the Pecos River.  Expect blowing dust over most of the
area tonight.  The wind comes back around to the south Tuesday as a
warm up begins. Another cold front comes through Thursday but will
not be as strong as the one tonight.

Rain... may have some lingering high based showers today over the
south but with no measurable rain expected will leave mention out
of the forecast.  Have a dry forecast through next weekend although
long range guidance/qpf does try to develop some precip next
Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty westerly winds will continue to push very dry air across
the region today. As the pressure gradient associated with a surface
low (located over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles as of 08z)
tightens mid-morning, 20 ft wind speeds will increase to around
20-30 MPH. Decreasing cloud cover today will also allow stronger
wind speeds to mix to the surface, with stronger gusts up to 35 MPH
possible. Minimum RHs will fall to less than 10 percent today west
of a dry line that will mix well east of the forecast area by late
afternoon (roughly to a Breckenridge-San Angelo-Langtry line). A Red
Flag Warning is in effect for all of West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico through 12 AM CDT/11 PM MDT. A strong cold front will push
south across the area late tonight and mitigate fire weather
concerns through the beginning of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 86  41  54  31  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              87  41  54  32  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                87  43  57  34  /   0  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  92  54  64  40  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           91  45  58  36  /  10   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  38  49  34  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   84  39  52  29  /   0  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   79  40  56  24  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    88  42  55  32  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  88  42  56  34  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    90  44  60  32  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     WIND ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM MDT Monday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 AM this morning to Noon MDT Monday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning to
     Midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Presidio Valley...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 AM this morning to Noon MDT Monday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.


&&

$$

13/72
069
FXUS64 KMAF 130528
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Main concerns
revolve around winds remaining elevated around 15 to 20 knots
overnight at several sites, with stronger gusts near 30 knots
possible, from a stout surface low located over the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles. Area radars continue to show virga showers pushing
east of area TAF sites, but cannot rule out elevated gusts at KFST
and KMAF through 07z as showers exit the area. Hi-res models
indicate a possibility for additional virga development near KFST
around 09-11z (wind gusts near 30 kts possible), but will handle with
amendments if anything develops. South to southwesterly winds will
increase mid-morning and remain gusty through sunset. Expect mid
and high clouds to clear out mid-morning as well.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper trough entering AZ, and pushing a decent
fetch of subtropical moisture ahead of it over West Texas/SE NM.
This increased cloudiness has hindered mixing somewhat, making the
ongoing RFW a hit-n-miss venture this afternoon.  As there are a few
more hours of heating left, we`re reluctant to cancel what is
already issued, and will let the next shift make that call when
critical fire wx conditions abate.  Further south, mesoscale
analysis shows a little instability developing near Presidio,
leaving an isolated chance of convection crossing the river late
this afternoon/evening.

Sunday, the upper trough moves thru the area, and will result in
dry, windy conditions across the region.  The NAM initialized better
on both dewpoints and wind than the GFS, and is the preferred model
in the short term.  That said, forecast soundings Sunday afternoon
mix to around 650mb.  The jet core rounding the base of the trough
at this lvl is forecast to pass thru the region before peak
heating/mixing Sunday afternoon, but critical winds are advertised
all the way down thru the H85 level, so it won`t be hard to hit
critical wind criteria.  Despite falling heights/thicknesses ahead
of the trough bringing in lower temps Sunday afternoon, lower
dewpoints on SW-W flow will keep RH`s low.  For these reasons,
critical fire weather conditions are expected area-wide, and we`ve
upgraded the watch to a warning.  Winds thru the Guadalupes look
marginal for a high wind warning Sunday, given the new
criteria/thresholds, but wind advisories look in order for areas
south.

As the upper trough exits the area Sunday night, a strong cold front
will move thru the region after 06Z Monday.  Models have a very
sharp pressure gradient w/the fropa, and hint at a haboob as the
front moves thru.  We`ve issued a high wind watch for the Guadalupes
as the front arrives, and advisories may be needed for adjacent
plains.  Temps should come in well below normal Monday afternoon,
before plunging Monday night as gradients slacken under clear skies
as a secondary trough moves thru.  This could result in the last freeze
of the spring for northern zones.  We`ll issue a warning or special
wx statement for affected areas sometime in the next 24 hours, when
higher res models have a better handle on what`s going to freeze and
where.

Otherwise, temps slowly begin to warm Tuesday onward, getting back
to AOA normal by Thursday afternoon and into the weekend.  A
tertiary upper trough moves over the region Thursday, but this looks
dry.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from 8 AM to 11 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from late Sunday night through Monday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning to
     Midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Presidio Valley...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from late Sunday night through Monday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.


&&

$$

13
322
FXUS64 KMAF 122317
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
617 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Isolated areas of gusty winds and blowing dust are possible
through the evening. Otherwise...VFR conditions to prevail with
widespread high clouds continuing. These clouds have limited the
wind potential so far today, but should begin to clear overnight.
Very strong west winds are expected at all terminals by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper trough entering AZ, and pushing a decent
fetch of subtropical moisture ahead of it over West Texas/SE NM.
This increased cloudiness has hindered mixing somewhat, making the
ongoing RFW a hit-n-miss venture this afternoon.  As there are a few
more hours of heating left, we`re reluctant to cancel what is
already issued, and will let the next shift make that call when
critical fire wx conditions abate.  Further south, mesoscale
analysis shows a little instability developing near Presidio,
leaving an isolated chance of convection crossing the river late
this afternoon/evening.

Sunday, the upper trough moves thru the area, and will result in
dry, windy conditions across the region.  The NAM initialized better
on both dewpoints and wind than the GFS, and is the preferred model
in the short term.  That said, forecast soundings Sunday afternoon
mix to around 650mb.  The jet core rounding the base of the trough
at this lvl is forecast to pass thru the region before peak
heating/mixing Sunday afternoon, but critical winds are advertised
all the way down thru the H85 level, so it won`t be hard to hit
critical wind criteria.  Despite falling heights/thicknesses ahead
of the trough bringing in lower temps Sunday afternoon, lower
dewpoints on SW-W flow will keep RH`s low.  For these reasons,
critical fire weather conditions are expected area-wide, and we`ve
upgraded the watch to a warning.  Winds thru the Guadalupes look
marginal for a high wind warning Sunday, given the new
criteria/thresholds, but wind advisories look in order for areas
south.

As the upper trough exits the area Sunday night, a strong cold front
will move thru the region after 06Z Monday.  Models have a very
sharp pressure gradient w/the fropa, and hint at a haboob as the
front moves thru.  We`ve issued a high wind watch for the Guadalupes
as the front arrives, and advisories may be needed for adjacent
plains.  Temps should come in well below normal Monday afternoon,
before plunging Monday night as gradients slacken under clear skies
as a secondary trough moves thru.  This could result in the last freeze
of the spring for northern zones.  We`ll issue a warning or special
wx statement for affected areas sometime in the next 24 hours, when
higher res models have a better handle on what`s going to freeze and
where.

Otherwise, temps slowly begin to warm Tuesday onward, getting back
to AOA normal by Thursday afternoon and into the weekend.  A
tertiary upper trough moves over the region Thursday, but this looks
dry.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from 8 AM to 11 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from late Sunday night through Monday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Sunday to Midnight CDT
     /11 PM MDT/ Sunday Night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Presidio Valley...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Dawson...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from late Sunday night through Monday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

29
042
FXUS64 KMAF 122007
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
307 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper trough entering AZ, and pushing a decent
fetch of subtropical moisture ahead of it over West Texas/SE NM.
This increased cloudiness has hindered mixing somewhat, making the
ongoing RFW a hit-n-miss venture this afternoon.  As there are a few
more hours of heating left, we`re reluctant to cancel what is
already issued, and will let the next shift make that call when
critical fire wx conditions abate.  Further south, mesoscale
analysis shows a little instability developing near Presidio,
leaving an isolated chance of convection crossing the river late
this afternoon/evening.

Sunday, the upper trough moves thru the area, and will result in
dry, windy conditions across the region.  The NAM initialized better
on both dewpoints and wind than the GFS, and is the preferred model
in the short term.  That said, forecast soundings Sunday afternoon
mix to around 650mb.  The jet core rounding the base of the trough
at this lvl is forecast to pass thru the region before peak
heating/mixing Sunday afternoon, but critical winds are advertised
all the way down thru the H85 level, so it won`t be hard to hit
critical wind criteria.  Despite falling heights/thicknesses ahead
of the trough bringing in lower temps Sunday afternoon, lower
dewpoints on SW-W flow will keep RH`s low.  For these reasons,
critical fire weather conditions are expected area-wide, and we`ve
upgraded the watch to a warning.  Winds thru the Guadalupes look
marginal for a high wind warning Sunday, given the new
criteria/thresholds, but wind advisories look in order for areas
south.

As the upper trough exits the area Sunday night, a strong cold front
will move thru the region after 06Z Monday.  Models have a very
sharp pressure gradient w/the fropa, and hint at a haboob as the
front moves thru.  We`ve issued a high wind watch for the Guadalupes
as the front arrives, and advisories may be needed for adjacent
plains.  Temps should come in well below normal Monday afternoon,
before plunging Monday night as gradients slacken under clear skies
as a secondary trough moves thru.  This could result in the last freeze
of the spring for northern zones.  We`ll issue a warning or special
wx statement for affected areas sometime in the next 24 hours, when
higher res models have a better handle on what`s going to freeze and
where.

Otherwise, temps slowly begin to warm Tuesday onward, getting back
to AOA normal by Thursday afternoon and into the weekend.  A
tertiary upper trough moves over the region Thursday, but this looks
dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  84  46  56  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              64  85  46  56  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                61  84  45  58  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  66  90  58  66  /  10   0  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  87  50  61  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          52  78  40  51  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   57  81  40  52  /  10   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   47  76  39  58  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    61  84  46  57  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  64  87  46  58  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    61  85  47  62  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from 8 AM to 11 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from late Sunday night through Monday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Sunday to Midnight CDT
     /11 PM MDT/ Sunday Night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Presidio Valley...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Dawson...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from late Sunday night through Monday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

03/44
240
FXUS64 KMAF 121742
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1242 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18z aviation forecast below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Intensifying surface low pressure over western Kansas and the
Oklahoma Panhandle will result in breezy to windy southwest flow
at TAF sites over southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas. Upper
level disturbances moving into the area from Mexico will continue
to provided associated high cloudiness. VFR conditions will
persist through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
More warm and dry weather today, with a canopy of high clouds still
parading across the area ahead of Sunday`s system (currently
located over California). Critical fire weather concerns continue
primarily across Southeast New Mexico and its bordering Texas
counties today, with potentially widespread critical conditions on
Sunday. For more information, please see the fire weather
discussion below. Similar to yesterday, afternoon high
temperatures today will top out in the upper 80s and low 90s for
most of the area. A sharpening lee surface trough this afternoon
will allow the dry line to mix to the eastern edges of the CWA,
roughly along a Snyder-Big Lake-Sanderson line. While convective
development is possible along and east of the dry line (where
better moisture resides), the cap remains strong with around
100-200 j/kg CIN and have kept thunderstorms out of the forecast
for these areas.

Models are also attempting to develop showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon over the higher terrain of Mexico as a subtle
shortwave trough traverses Chihuahua. The NAM, GFS, and RUC all
develop QPF this afternoon and evening from Culberson County into
the Marfa Plateau as a result of this activity moving northeast.
Forecast soundings do indicate top down moistening across
southwest Texas, but still maintain rather large surface
temperature-dew point spreads (30-40 degrees). If anything
actually does make it into Texas (and confidence is not high that
it will), a very dry sub cloud layer makes virga with localized
gusty winds and occasional lightning seem the more likely outcome.

The more noticeable effect of the sharpening surface trough will be
an increase in surface winds today, with gusty southwest winds 15-25
MPH across lower elevations and higher speeds across higher terrain.
Expect windy conditions again Sunday as a shortwave trough crosses
the region, with height falls across the area producing slightly
cooler temperatures. As this trough swings across the area, it will send a
rather potent cold front through the area Sunday night. Expect the
front to push through the entire area by midday Monday.

A very tight pressure gradient (5 mb/50 miles) associated with
this front will produce possible wind advisory criteria (winds
25-35 MPH) behind the front mainly north of I-20. Given a
favorable northeast direction with these winds, a high wind
warning may also be needed for the Guadalupe Mountains (including
Guadalupe Pass). Blowing dust will be a concern with the winds
along and behind the front. Strongest winds look to materialize
between 10Z and 18Z on Monday morning. A secondary wave will dive south
Monday afternoon and, despite sufficient lift, the air over the
forecast area looks too moisture starved (PWATs around 0.3 in over
the northern Permian Basin) to support any of the precip models
are generating over the northern portions of the forecast area.

Temperatures will also be much colder behind Sunday`s front with the
potential for a late season freeze on Tuesday morning in the
mountains and northern Permian Basin. Areas along and north of I-20
will need to continue to monitor the forecast for issuance of any
freeze watches or warnings. Shortwave ridging builds across Texas
and New Mexico by mid-week, allowing temperatures to warm back to
near seasonal normals. The ECMWF and GFS are indicating a more
active pattern again heading into next weekend, but this far out
have different solutions. Kept the forecast dry into next weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...
Expecting another day of very dry air over much of the region with
minimum RH below 15 percent west of a dryline.  As a surface low
moves over the Panhandle today should reach or exceed 20ft winds of
20 mph across SE NM... Guadalupe Mtns... Van Horn region... portions
of the Upper Trans Pecos and NW Permian Basin.  Will update the Red
Flag Warning to include all of these locations.  A few thunderstorms
possible this afternoon/evening across the Marfa Plateau... these
could be dry storms.  Very dry air will spread across all of the
region Sunday as a west wind sweeps across the area.  Minimum RH 10
percent or less.  As the pressure gradient tightens 20ft winds will
exceed 20 mph over much of the area.  Will continue the Fire Weather
Watch Sunday for all of W TX and SE NM.  A strong cold front will
blow through the area Sunday night ending fire weather concerns for
a few days.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...
     Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Dawson...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.


&&

$$

03
396
FXUS64 KMAF 121131
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
631 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with extensive upper cloud deck today. SW wind today will
become gusty as surface trough deepens and winds aloft mix down.
Wind should stay up tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
More warm and dry weather today, with a canopy of high clouds still
parading across the area ahead of Sunday`s system (currently
located over California). Critical fire weather concerns continue
primarily across Southeast New Mexico and its bordering Texas
counties today, with potentially widespread critical conditions on
Sunday. For more information, please see the fire weather
discussion below. Similar to yesterday, afternoon high
temperatures today will top out in the upper 80s and low 90s for
most of the area. A sharpening lee surface trough this afternoon
will allow the dry line to mix to the eastern edges of the CWA,
roughly along a Snyder-Big Lake-Sanderson line. While convective
development is possible along and east of the dry line (where
better moisture resides), the cap remains strong with around
100-200 j/kg CIN and have kept thunderstorms out of the forecast
for these areas.

Models are also attempting to develop showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon over the higher terrain of Mexico as a subtle
shortwave trough traverses Chihuahua. The NAM, GFS, and RUC all
develop QPF this afternoon and evening from Culberson County into
the Marfa Plateau as a result of this activity moving northeast.
Forecast soundings do indicate top down moistening across
southwest Texas, but still maintain rather large surface
temperature-dew point spreads (30-40 degrees). If anything
actually does make it into Texas (and confidence is not high that
it will), a very dry sub cloud layer makes virga with localized
gusty winds and occasional lightning seem the more likely outcome.

The more noticeable effect of the sharpening surface trough will be
an increase in surface winds today, with gusty southwest winds 15-25
MPH across lower elevations and higher speeds across higher terrain.
Expect windy conditions again Sunday as a shortwave trough crosses
the region, with height falls across the area producing slightly
cooler temperatures. As this trough swings across the area, it will send a
rather potent cold front through the area Sunday night. Expect the
front to push through the entire area by midday Monday.

A very tight pressure gradient (5 mb/50 miles) associated with
this front will produce possible wind advisory criteria (winds
25-35 MPH) behind the front mainly north of I-20. Given a
favorable northeast direction with these winds, a high wind
warning may also be needed for the Guadalupe Mountains (including
Guadalupe Pass). Blowing dust will be a concern with the winds
along and behind the front. Strongest winds look to materialize
between 10Z and 18Z on Monday morning. A secondary wave will dive south
Monday afternoon and, despite sufficient lift, the air over the
forecast area looks too moisture starved (PWATs around 0.3 in over
the northern Permian Basin) to support any of the precip models
are generating over the northern portions of the forecast area.

Temperatures will also be much colder behind Sunday`s front with the
potential for a late season freeze on Tuesday morning in the
mountains and northern Permian Basin. Areas along and north of I-20
will need to continue to monitor the forecast for issuance of any
freeze watches or warnings. Shortwave ridging builds across Texas
and New Mexico by mid-week, allowing temperatures to warm back to
near seasonal normals. The ECMWF and GFS are indicating a more
active pattern again heading into next weekend, but this far out
have different solutions. Kept the forecast dry into next weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...
Expecting another day of very dry air over much of the region with
minimum RH below 15 percent west of a dryline.  As a surface low
moves over the Panhandle today should reach or exceed 20ft winds of
20 mph across SE NM... Guadalupe Mtns... Van Horn region... portions
of the Upper Trans Pecos and NW Permian Basin.  Will update the Red
Flag Warning to include all of these locations.  A few thunderstorms
possible this afternoon/evening across the Marfa Plateau... these
could be dry storms.  Very dry air will spread across all of the
region Sunday as a west wind sweeps across the area.  Minimum RH 10
percent or less.  As the pressure gradient tightens 20ft winds will
exceed 20 mph over much of the area.  Will continue the Fire Weather
Watch Sunday for all of W TX and SE NM.  A strong cold front will
blow through the area Sunday night ending fire weather concerns for
a few days.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...
     Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     RED FLAG WARNING from Noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Dawson...
     Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$
312
FXUS64 KMAF 120942
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
442 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
More warm and dry weather today, with a canopy of high clouds still
parading across the area ahead of Sunday`s system (currently
located over California). Critical fire weather concerns continue
primarily across Southeast New Mexico and its bordering Texas
counties today, with potentially widespread critical conditions on
Sunday. For more information, please see the fire weather
discussion below. Similar to yesterday, afternoon high
temperatures today will top out in the upper 80s and low 90s for
most of the area. A sharpening lee surface trough this afternoon
will allow the dry line to mix to the eastern edges of the CWA,
roughly along a Snyder-Big Lake-Sanderson line. While convective
development is possible along and east of the dry line (where
better moisture resides), the cap remains strong with around
100-200 j/kg CIN and have kept thunderstorms out of the forecast
for these areas.

Models are also attempting to develop showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon over the higher terrain of Mexico as a subtle
shortwave trough traverses Chihuahua. The NAM, GFS, and RUC all
develop QPF this afternoon and evening from Culberson County into
the Marfa Plateau as a result of this activity moving northeast.
Forecast soundings do indicate top down moistening across
southwest Texas, but still maintain rather large surface
temperature-dew point spreads (30-40 degrees). If anything
actually does make it into Texas (and confidence is not high that
it will), a very dry sub cloud layer makes virga with localized
gusty winds and occasional lightning seem the more likely outcome.

The more noticeable effect of the sharpening surface trough will be
an increase in surface winds today, with gusty southwest winds 15-25
MPH across lower elevations and higher speeds across higher terrain.
Expect windy conditions again Sunday as a shortwave trough crosses
the region, with height falls across the area producing slightly
cooler temperatures. As this trough swings across the area, it will send a
rather potent cold front through the area Sunday night. Expect the
front to push through the entire area by midday Monday.

A very tight pressure gradient (5 mb/50 miles) associated with
this front will produce possible wind advisory criteria (winds
25-35 MPH) behind the front mainly north of I-20. Given a
favorable northeast direction with these winds, a high wind
warning may also be needed for the Guadalupe Mountains (including
Guadalupe Pass). Blowing dust will be a concern with the winds
along and behind the front. Strongest winds look to materialize
between 10Z and 18Z on Monday morning. A secondary wave will dive south
Monday afternoon and, despite sufficient lift, the air over the
forecast area looks too moisture starved (PWATs around 0.3 in over
the northern Permian Basin) to support any of the precip models
are generating over the northern portions of the forecast area.

Temperatures will also be much colder behind Sunday`s front with the
potential for a late season freeze on Tuesday morning in the
mountains and northern Permian Basin. Areas along and north of I-20
will need to continue to monitor the forecast for issuance of any
freeze watches or warnings. Shortwave ridging builds across Texas
and New Mexico by mid-week, allowing temperatures to warm back to
near seasonal normals. The ECMWF and GFS are indicating a more
active pattern again heading into next weekend, but this far out
have different solutions. Kept the forecast dry into next weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Expecting another day of very dry air over much of the region with
minimum RH below 15 percent west of a dryline.  As a surface low
moves over the Panhandle today should reach or exceed 20ft winds of
20 mph across SE NM... Guadalupe Mtns... Van Horn region... portions
of the Upper Trans Pecos and NW Permian Basin.  Will update the Red
Flag Warning to include all of these locations.  A few thunderstorms
possible this afternoon/evening across the Marfa Plateau... these
could be dry storms.  Very dry air will spread across all of the
region Sunday as a west wind sweeps across the area.  Minimum RH 10
percent or less.  As the pressure gradient tightens 20ft winds will
exceed 20 mph over much of the area.  Will continue the Fire Weather
Watch Sunday for all of W TX and SE NM.  A strong cold front will
blow through the area Sunday night ending fire weather concerns for
a few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 89  60  84  41  /  10  10   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              91  65  86  41  /  10  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                89  58  85  47  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  92  66  95  55  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           90  63  88  45  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  55  75  36  /  10  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   87  54  82  39  /  10  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   81  48  81  38  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    90  65  86  42  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  90  64  85  42  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    91  60  88  46  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...
     Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     RED FLAG WARNING from Noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Dawson...
     Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

72/13
768
FXUS64 KMAF 120545
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1245 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with extensive high clouds over the area through most of the
TAF period.  A surface trough extending down from the Panhandle
will tighten up this afternoon with SW wind becoming gusty.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Low level mstr has crept into the e-s CWFA today, but still its
extremely dry across the w. There`s still an extensive covering of
high clouds, but seems to be a little thinner than yesterday with
highs mostly in the U80s and L90s today. Low level mstr will push
wwd overnight some, but this will be short-lived pushing into ern
edge of CWFA Sat PM...except in the far s where mstr will hold in
place. 20-25kts 85h-7h winds Sat PM suggest gusty afternoon
conditions across the GDP Mtns/SE NM. Still unseasonably warm Sat,
high in the 90s with warm/dry sw surface winds. There is a brief
window that precip could form Sun AM across PB (emphasis on brief)
ahead of a shrtwv trof. Sun PM will be warm again, but especially
windy. A shrtwv trof passing to the n with 25-30kt 85h winds and
MSLP gradient of 4mb/120 suggesting 20-30G40mph across the plains.
High winds will be possible in the favored areas of GDP Mtns
Sat/Sun. After shrtwv trof passes a strong cold front will move
into the plains Sun night/early Mon AM. MSLP gradient around
4mb/50nm and NAM12 isallobaric high of 12mb/3hrs suggest it will
be very windy, at least brief advisory level winds will be possible.
and high winds will possible thru GDP Pass. Noting that NAM12 has
overdone the isallobaric high recently. There will be a noticeable
change in temps Mon-Tue with high Mon in the 50s, possibly 40s far
n-ne, and low in the 30s Tue AM. A late season freeze will even be
possible across the NW CWFA and Marfa Plateau. Thereafter there will
be a gradual warming trend with temps returning to well above
normal and dry thru the remainder of the work weak.

FIRE WEATHER...
The area continues to be hit hard by low RHs, especially across
the w where even max RH/s aren`t getting above 15-17 pct (Dog
Canyon, Queen, Ft Davis). Recovery has been better in the e, but
desiccating air surges out ewd in the afternoon. This will generally
be the pattern thru Sunday, although the morning RH/s will be
higher than of late, even in the w. Model surface winds/mixing
potential is confirmed in MOS guidance across the w for Sat and we
will upgrade the watch to a warning. Sunday looks to be windier
over a much larger area when 85h and 7h winds of 25-30kts and
30-45kts, respectively, will come out across the area in assocn
with a shrtwv trof passing to the n. Referenced 85-7h winds will
be strongest early and be weaker in the far w. According to the
thermal ridge position and 85h-7h wind speed max the best set-up
will be across the central and e PB. For now we will opt to issue
a watch for all areas. Depending on more certainty with timing as
Sunday draws nearer some of the wrn areas, like SE NM, may be
dropped?

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...
     Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     RED FLAG WARNING from Noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe
     Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$
686
FXUS64 KMAF 112323
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
623 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail with broken high clouds through much
of the period. Light and variable winds tonight with become gusty
(>20 kts) from the west by late morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Low level mstr has crept into the e-s CWFA today, but still its
extremely dry across the w. There`s still an extensive covering of
high clouds, but seems to be a little thinner than yesterday with
highs mostly in the U80s and L90s today. Low level mstr will push
wwd overnight some, but this will be short-lived pushing into ern
edge of CWFA Sat PM...except in the far s where mstr will hold in
place. 20-25kts 85h-7h winds Sat PM suggest gusty afternoon
conditions across the GDP Mtns/SE NM. Still unseasonably warm Sat,
high in the 90s with warm/dry sw surface winds. There is a brief
window that precip could form Sun AM across PB (emphasis on brief)
ahead of a shrtwv trof. Sun PM will be warm again, but especially
windy. A shrtwv trof passing to the n with 25-30kt 85h winds and
MSLP gradient of 4mb/120 suggesting 20-30G40mph across the plains.
High winds will be possible in the favored areas of GDP Mtns
Sat/Sun. After shrtwv trof passes a strong cold front will move
into the plains Sun night/early Mon AM. MSLP gradient around
4mb/50nm and NAM12 isallobaric high of 12mb/3hrs suggest it will
be very windy, at least brief advisory level winds will be possible.
and high winds will possible thru GDP Pass. Noting that NAM12 has
overdone the isallobaric high recently. There will be a noticeable
change in temps Mon-Tue with high Mon in the 50s, possibly 40s far
n-ne, and low in the 30s Tue AM. A late season freeze will even be
possible across the NW CWFA and Marfa Plateau. Thereafter there will
be a gradual warming trend with temps returning to well above
normal and dry thru the remainder of the work weak.

FIRE WEATHER...
The area continues to be hit hard by low RHs, especially across
the w where even max RH/s aren`t getting above 15-17 pct (Dog
Canyon, Queen, Ft Davis). Recovery has been better in the e, but
desiccating air surges out ewd in the afternoon. This will generally
be the pattern thru Sunday, although the morning RH/s will be
higher than of late, even in the w. Model surface winds/mixing
potential is confirmed in MOS guidance across the w for Sat and we
will upgrade the watch to a warning. Sunday looks to be windier
over a much larger area when 85h and 7h winds of 25-30kts and
30-45kts, respectively, will come out across the area in assocn
with a shrtwv trof passing to the n. Referenced 85-7h winds will
be strongest early and be weaker in the far w. According to the
thermal ridge position and 85h-7h wind speed max the best set-up
will be across the central and e PB. For now we will opt to issue
a watch for all areas. Depending on more certainty with timing as
Sunday draws nearer some of the wrn areas, like SE NM, may be
dropped?

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...
     Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     RED FLAG WARNING from Noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe
     Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

29
986
FXUS64 KMAF 111924
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
224 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Low level mstr has crept into the e-s CWFA today, but still its
extremely dry across the w. There`s still an extensive covering of
high clouds, but seems to be a little thinner than yesterday with
highs mostly in the U80s and L90s today. Low level mstr will push
wwd overnight some, but this will be short-lived pushing into ern
edge of CWFA Sat PM...except in the far s where mstr will hold in
place. 20-25kts 85h-7h winds Sat PM suggest gusty afternoon
conditions across the GDP Mtns/SE NM. Still unseasonably warm Sat,
high in the 90s with warm/dry sw surface winds. There is a brief
window that precip could form Sun AM across PB (emphasis on brief)
ahead of a shrtwv trof. Sun PM will be warm again, but especially
windy. A shrtwv trof passing to the n with 25-30kt 85h winds and
MSLP gradient of 4mb/120 suggesting 20-30G40mph across the plains.
High winds will be possible in the favored areas of GDP Mtns
Sat/Sun. After shrtwv trof passes a strong cold front will move
into the plains Sun night/early Mon AM. MSLP gradient around
4mb/50nm and NAM12 isallobaric high of 12mb/3hrs suggest it will
be very windy, at least brief advisory level winds will be possible.
and high winds will possible thru GDP Pass. Noting that NAM12 has
overdone the isallobaric high recently. There will be a noticeable
change in temps Mon-Tue with high Mon in the 50s, possibly 40s far
n-ne, and low in the 30s Tue AM. A late season freeze will even be
possible across the NW CWFA and Marfa Plateau. Thereafter there will
be a gradual warming trend with temps returning to well above
normal and dry thru the remainder of the work weak.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The area continues to be hit hard by low RHs, especially across
the w where even max RH/s aren`t getting above 15-17 pct (Dog
Canyon, Queen, Ft Davis). Recovery has been better in the e, but
desiccating air surges out ewd in the afternoon. This will generally
be the pattern thru Sunday, although the morning RH/s will be
higher than of late, even in the w. Model surface winds/mixing
potential is confirmed in MOS guidance across the w for Sat and we
will upgrade the watch to a warning. Sunday looks to be windier
over a much larger area when 85h and 7h winds of 25-30kts and
30-45kts, respectively, will come out across the area in assocn
with a shrtwv trof passing to the n. Referenced 85-7h winds will
be strongest early and be weaker in the far w. According to the
thermal ridge position and 85h-7h wind speed max the best set-up
will be across the central and e PB. For now we will opt to issue
a watch for all areas. Depending on more certainty with timing as
Sunday draws nearer some of the wrn areas, like SE NM, may be
dropped?

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  91  59  85  /   0  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              60  91  63  87  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                56  92  58  89  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  62  90  66  94  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  94  61  89  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          60  83  56  76  /   0   0  10   0
HOBBS NM                   52  89  54  85  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   45  83  48  81  /   0   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    59  91  62  88  /   0  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  61  91  64  88  /   0  10  10  10
WINK TX                    53  95  60  90  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...
     Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     RED FLAG WARNING from Noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe
     Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$
424
FXUS64 KMAF 111719
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Northwesterly flow will back
to the SW by the end of the forecast period. High clouds will
gradually clear out for most of the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
VFR will continue with increasing high clouds from the west.  A
weak frontal boundary is poised to sag down into the area this
morning with the wind briefly coming around to the north.  By
this evening the front will lift back to the north as a south wind
returns.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The closed low off the West Coast continues to push eastward towards
California and will eventually pass West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico later this weekend. Mid and upper level Pacific moisture
streaming into the area ahead of the low has resulted in clouds
around 20-25k ft AGL this morning and we will continue to see
scattered to broken mid and high clouds through the weekend. A weak
cold front entered our northern counties overnight. Surface
pressure rises are not impressive behind this front around 2-3
mb/3 hour. Without any real push, it will stall roughly north of
I-20 today, keeping afternoon high temperatures slightly cooler
in the upper 80s.

Expect low 90s across lower elevations today as cloud cover
will have a slight limiting effect on insolation again. Elevated
to near critical fire weather concerns will continue across most
of the area through the weekend with afternoon high temperatures
dropping relative humidities into the single digits to teens.
Winds still appear below critical levels until Sunday when a
deepening lee surface trough increases wind speeds. Please see the
fire weather discussion below for more information.

Warm and dry conditions expected to continue through the weekend. Lee
surface troughing will aid in the development of a dry line today
and Saturday, which will mix to roughly a Big Spring-Crane-
Sanderson line Friday and Saturday afternoons. The dry line will
slosh back and forth across eastern portions of the forecast area
before Sunday`s system provides enough push to move it into west
and north central Texas. Despite subtle passing disturbances over
the area this afternoon/evening and tomorrow, the cap along the
dry line is strong with 200-400 j/kg CIN and potential for
convection east of the dryline in extreme eastern portions of the
forecast area remain low.

As the previously mentioned closed low crosses across Baja
California Saturday afternoon, it will open into a shortwave trough
and continue to translate across Arizona and New Mexico. High winds
in the Guadalupe Mountains will be possible Saturday and Sunday as
mid level winds increase ahead of this system. Both the GFS and ECMWF are
about 6 hours faster with shortwave than NAM and bring the shortwave
across Sunday afternoon. These timing differences appear to have
little impact on the progress of Sunday night`s front, however, with
the front entering the Permian Basin before midnight and pushing
through the entire area by midday Monday. Expect strong winds
behind the cold front with widespread wind advisory conditions
possible on Monday (northerly winds 25-35 mph). Blowing dust will
also be a concern on Monday with these elevated wind speeds.
Models attempt to break out precipitation with a secondary wave
Monday evening mainly across the northern Permian Basin. Based on
the track of this secondary wave and very dry forecast soundings,
drier air over the forecast area looks to prevent any potential
development.

Cold air advection behind the front will keep temperatures much
cooler Monday and Tuesday, with near freezing temperatures possible
Tuesday morning as a surface high settles in over the region. While
the average date of the last freeze in Midland is March 29, our
latest freeze on record occurred last year on May 3. Anyone with
planting interests will want to continue to monitor the forecast.
Temperatures look to moderate towards the middle of next week with
potentially windy conditions towards the end of next week with the
passage of the next system in the Thursday/Friday timeframe.

FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry air will remain over most of the region as the dryline will
be located to the east.  20ft wind speeds will be unimpressive today
as a weak front moves down into the area early today and then lifts
out again during the afternoon.  The only area that could approach
critical fire wx conditions this afternoon will be the Guadalupe
Mtns.  Will issue a Fire Danger Statement for there today.
Conditions will remain very dry across the area Saturday and a
developing surface trough across the area will result in an
increasing southwest wind over the area.  Southeast NM... the
Guadalupe Mtns and Van Horn may reach critical fire wx conditions
Saturday... will continue the Fire Weather Watch.  These dry and
windy conditions will be possible again Sunday across a larger area
and another Fire Wx Watch may be necessary.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...
     Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     RED FLAG WARNING from Noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe
     Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

44
171
FXUS64 KMAF 111102
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
602 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will continue with increasing high clouds from the west.  A
weak frontal boundary is poised to sag down into the area this
morning with the wind briefly coming around to the north.  By
this evening the front will lift back to the north as a south wind
returns.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The closed low off the West Coast continues to push eastward towards
California and will eventually pass West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico later this weekend. Mid and upper level Pacific moisture
streaming into the area ahead of the low has resulted in clouds
around 20-25k ft AGL this morning and we will continue to see
scattered to broken mid and high clouds through the weekend. A weak
cold front entered our northern counties overnight. Surface
pressure rises are not impressive behind this front around 2-3
mb/3 hour. Without any real push, it will stall roughly north of
I-20 today, keeping afternoon high temperatures slightly cooler
in the upper 80s.

Expect low 90s across lower elevations today as cloud cover
will have a slight limiting effect on insolation again. Elevated
to near critical fire weather concerns will continue across most
of the area through the weekend with afternoon high temperatures
dropping relative humidities into the single digits to teens.
Winds still appear below critical levels until Sunday when a
deepening lee surface trough increases wind speeds. Please see the
fire weather discussion below for more information.

Warm and dry conditions expected to continue through the weekend. Lee
surface troughing will aid in the development of a dry line today
and Saturday, which will mix to roughly a Big Spring-Crane-
Sanderson line Friday and Saturday afternoons. The dry line will
slosh back and forth across eastern portions of the forecast area
before Sunday`s system provides enough push to move it into west
and north central Texas. Despite subtle passing disturbances over
the area this afternoon/evening and tomorrow, the cap along the
dry line is strong with 200-400 j/kg CIN and potential for
convection east of the dryline in extreme eastern portions of the
forecast area remain low.

As the previously mentioned closed low crosses across Baja
California Saturday afternoon, it will open into a shortwave trough
and continue to translate across Arizona and New Mexico. High winds
in the Guadalupe Mountains will be possible Saturday and Sunday as
mid level winds increase ahead of this system. Both the GFS and ECMWF are
about 6 hours faster with shortwave than NAM and bring the shortwave
across Sunday afternoon. These timing differences appear to have
little impact on the progress of Sunday night`s front, however, with
the front entering the Permian Basin before midnight and pushing
through the entire area by midday Monday. Expect strong winds
behind the cold front with widespread wind advisory conditions
possible on Monday (northerly winds 25-35 mph). Blowing dust will
also be a concern on Monday with these elevated wind speeds.
Models attempt to break out precipitation with a secondary wave
Monday evening mainly across the northern Permian Basin. Based on
the track of this secondary wave and very dry forecast soundings,
drier air over the forecast area looks to prevent any potential
development.

Cold air advection behind the front will keep temperatures much
cooler Monday and Tuesday, with near freezing temperatures possible
Tuesday morning as a surface high settles in over the region. While
the average date of the last freeze in Midland is March 29, our
latest freeze on record occurred last year on May 3. Anyone with
planting interests will want to continue to monitor the forecast.
Temperatures look to moderate towards the middle of next week with
potentially windy conditions towards the end of next week with the
passage of the next system in the Thursday/Friday timeframe.

FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry air will remain over most of the region as the dryline will
be located to the east.  20ft wind speeds will be unimpressive today
as a weak front moves down into the area early today and then lifts
out again during the afternoon.  The only area that could approach
critical fire wx conditions this afternoon will be the Guadalupe
Mtns.  Will issue a Fire Danger Statement for there today.
Conditions will remain very dry across the area Saturday and a
developing surface trough across the area will result in an
increasing southwest wind over the area.  Southeast NM... the
Guadalupe Mtns and Van Horn may reach critical fire wx conditions
Saturday... will continue the Fire Weather Watch.  These dry and
windy conditions will be possible again Sunday across a larger area
and another Fire Wx Watch may be necessary.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$
742
FXUS64 KMAF 110916
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
416 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The closed low off the West Coast continues to push eastward towards
California and will eventually pass West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico later this weekend. Mid and upper level Pacific moisture
streaming into the area ahead of the low has resulted in clouds
around 20-25k ft AGL this morning and we will continue to see
scattered to broken mid and high clouds through the weekend. A weak
cold front entered our northern counties overnight. Surface
pressure rises are not impressive behind this front around 2-3
mb/3 hour. Without any real push, it will stall roughly north of
I-20 today, keeping afternoon high temperatures slightly cooler
in the upper 80s.

Expect low 90s across lower elevations today as cloud cover
will have a slight limiting effect on insolation again. Elevated
to near critical fire weather concerns will continue across most
of the area through the weekend with afternoon high temperatures
dropping relative humidities into the single digits to teens.
Winds still appear below critical levels until Sunday when a
deepening lee surface trough increases wind speeds. Please see the
fire weather discussion below for more information.

Warm and dry conditions expected to continue through the weekend. Lee
surface troughing will aid in the development of a dry line today
and Saturday, which will mix to roughly a Big Spring-Crane-
Sanderson line Friday and Saturday afternoons. The dry line will
slosh back and forth across eastern portions of the forecast area
before Sunday`s system provides enough push to move it into west
and north central Texas. Despite subtle passing disturbances over
the area this afternoon/evening and tomorrow, the cap along the
dry line is strong with 200-400 j/kg CIN and potential for
convection east of the dryline in extreme eastern portions of the
forecast area remain low.

As the previously mentioned closed low crosses across Baja
California Saturday afternoon, it will open into a shortwave trough
and continue to translate across Arizona and New Mexico. High winds
in the Guadalupe Mountains will be possible Saturday and Sunday as
mid level winds increase ahead of this system. Both the GFS and ECMWF are
about 6 hours faster with shortwave than NAM and bring the shortwave
across Sunday afternoon. These timing differences appear to have
little impact on the progress of Sunday night`s front, however, with
the front entering the Permian Basin before midnight and pushing
through the entire area by midday Monday. Expect strong winds
behind the cold front with widespread wind advisory conditions
possible on Monday (northerly winds 25-35 mph). Blowing dust will
also be a concern on Monday with these elevated wind speeds.
Models attempt to break out precipitation with a secondary wave
Monday evening mainly across the northern Permian Basin. Based on
the track of this secondary wave and very dry forecast soundings,
drier air over the forecast area looks to prevent any potential
development.

Cold air advection behind the front will keep temperatures much
cooler Monday and Tuesday, with near freezing temperatures possible
Tuesday morning as a surface high settles in over the region. While
the average date of the last freeze in Midland is March 29, our
latest freeze on record occurred last year on May 3. Anyone with
planting interests will want to continue to monitor the forecast.
Temperatures look to moderate towards the middle of next week with
potentially windy conditions towards the end of next week with the
passage of the next system in the Thursday/Friday timeframe.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry air will remain over most of the region as the dryline will
be located to the east.  20ft wind speeds will be unimpressive today
as a weak front moves down into the area early today and then lifts
out again during the afternoon.  The only area that could approach
critical fire wx conditions this afternoon will be the Guadalupe
Mtns.  Will issue a Fire Danger Statement for there today.
Conditions will remain very dry across the area Saturday and a
developing surface trough across the area will result in an
increasing southwest wind over the area.  Southeast NM... the
Guadalupe Mtns and Van Horn may reach critical fire wx conditions
Saturday... will continue the Fire Weather Watch.  These dry and
windy conditions will be possible again Sunday across a larger area
and another Fire Wx Watch may be necessary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 89  58  90  60  /   0   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              88  60  92  64  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                91  58  90  56  /   0   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  95  61  91  66  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           94  60  92  59  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          82  59  82  54  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   89  55  87  52  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   82  50  83  52  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    92  60  90  62  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  90  60  89  64  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                    94  57  94  60  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

72/13
444
FXUS64 KMAF 110533
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1233 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with continued high clouds streaming over the area.  A weak
frontal boundary will sag down into the area early Friday with the
wind coming around to the north.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Today will turn out to be the warmest day of the next several as
downslope winds contribute to the amplification of the low level
thermal ridge. Temperatures will be about 10 to 15 degrees above
normal. More of the same Fri, however a weak front will slip into
the n-ne CWFA and it will be noticeably cooler there. A surface
low to north will better organize Sat and the development of sw
surface winds and a prominent 85h thermal ridge will keep the
unseasonably warm temperatures going. Low level mstr will be able
to hold across the Lower Trans Pecos and the far e-ne CWFA where
LI/s of -2 to -5 are progged. However it will be cool across Lower
Trans Pecos and that will result in large CINH and with an
elevated mixed layer parcels will have to be lifted to around
650mb in e-ne, this doesn`t seem too likely. Mid level winds will
increase Sat and high winds will become a possibility Sat/Sun in
favored areas of the GDP Mtns. A shrtwv trof will pass on Sunday
however dry air will push out ewd ahead of shrtwv trof precluding
the chance for convective development. It will be cooler Sunday,
but temperatures will still be above normal. In wake of said trof
a strong cold front will surge s arriving in the PB Sunday evening.
NAM12 3hr pressure change progs indicate it will be windy with
front, possibly near advisory criteria n of I-20. It will be much
colder Mon with highs U50s-L60s for most areas. Turning warming
though Tue-Thur. GFS is optimistic about dryline developing Wed,
but ECMWF moreso Thur.

FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry regime to continue through the weekend with westerly flow
aloft continuing. A rather weak surface pressure gradient and an
abundance of high clouds should keep 20 foot winds below 20 mph
today even in the Guadalupe Mountains, though mountain top winds
could flirt at times with Red Flag conditions overnight per the NAM
forecast sounding. Very poor rh recovery expected tonight mainly
west of the Pecos River and fair to good east.

Near critical fire weather conditions expected Friday across the
Guadalupe Mountains. Forecast soundings indicate 20 foot winds
and mixing layer winds increasing to near 20 mph on or after 21z
through 00z Saturday. Mitigating factors will be a brief window for
the 20 mph winds to materialize with a significant amount of high
clouds expected. Will issue no watches at this time for Friday.
Saturday morning rh recovery will be poor west of the Pecos River
and fair to good east.

West to southwest winds will increase through the column Saturday
as a southern stream upper level low pressure area nudges closer
to the forecast area. There is greater confidence that a significant
period of 20 foot winds will reach 20 mph or greater across the
Guadalupe Mountains, Van Horn Highway 54 Corridor and southeast
New Mexico Plains. Since minimum rh/s are expected to be below 10
percent in these areas, we will issue a Fire Weather Watch.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$
706
FXUS64 KMAF 102306
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
606 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. West winds of 10
to 15 mph and gusty will diminish to less than 10 mph by shortly
after sunset and continue overnight. A weak cold front is expected
to track to the Pecos River Friday morning resulting in a wind
shift to an easterly direction at KMAF, KINK, KHOB. Either way
wind speeds Friday are expected to be in the 5 to 15 mph range
with an abundance of high clouds continuing.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Today will turn out to be the warmest day of the next several as
downslope winds contribute to the amplification of the low level
thermal ridge. Temperatures will be about 10 to 15 degrees above
normal. More of the same Fri, however a weak front will slip into
the n-ne CWFA and it will be noticeably cooler there. A surface
low to north will better organize Sat and the development of sw
surface winds and a prominent 85h thermal ridge will keep the
unseasonably warm temperatures going. Low level mstr will be able
to hold across the Lower Trans Pecos and the far e-ne CWFA where
LI/s of -2 to -5 are progged. However it will be cool across Lower
Trans Pecos and that will result in large CINH and with an
elevated mixed layer parcels will have to be lifted to around
650mb in e-ne, this doesn`t seem too likely. Mid level winds will
increase Sat and high winds will become a possibility Sat/Sun in
favored areas of the GDP Mtns. A shrtwv trof will pass on Sunday
however dry air will push out ewd ahead of shrtwv trof precluding
the chance for convective development. It will be cooler Sunday,
but temperatures will still be above normal. In wake of said trof
a strong cold front will surge s arriving in the PB Sunday evening.
NAM12 3hr pressure change progs indicate it will be windy with
front, possibly near advisory criteria n of I-20. It will be much
colder Mon with highs U50s-L60s for most areas. Turning warming
though Tue-Thur. GFS is optimistic about dryline developing Wed,
but ECMWF moreso Thur.

FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry regime to continue through the weekend with westerly flow
aloft continuing. A rather weak surface pressure gradient and an
abundance of high clouds should keep 20 foot winds below 20 mph
today even in the Guadalupe Mountains, though mountain top winds
could flirt at times with Red Flag conditions overnight per the NAM
forecast sounding. Very poor rh recovery expected tonight mainly
west of the Pecos River and fair to good east.

Near critical fire weather conditions expected Friday across the
Guadalupe Mountains. Forecast soundings indicate 20 foot winds
and mixing layer winds increasing to near 20 mph on or after 21z
through 00z Saturday. Mitigating factors will be a brief window for
the 20 mph winds to materialize with a significant amount of high
clouds expected. Will issue no watches at this time for Friday.
Saturday morning rh recovery will be poor west of the Pecos River
and fair to good east.

West to southwest winds will increase through the column Saturday
as a southern stream upper level low pressure area nudges closer
to the forecast area. There is greater confidence that a significant
period of 20 foot winds will reach 20 mph or greater across the
Guadalupe Mountains, Van Horn Highway 54 Corridor and southeast
New Mexico Plains. Since minimum rh/s are expected to be below 10
percent in these areas, we will issue a Fire Weather Watch.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  89  59  91  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              58  89  62  90  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                49  89  57  92  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  59  91  62  89  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           55  92  61  94  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  81  59  84  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   50  87  55  90  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   43  83  48  83  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    59  90  61  91  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  59  90  62  91  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    53  93  59  95  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$
568
FXUS64 KMAF 101942
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
242 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today will turn out to be the warmest day of the next several as
downslope winds contribute to the amplification of the low level
thermal ridge. Temperatures will be about 10 to 15 degrees above
normal. More of the same Fri, however a weak front will slip into
the n-ne CWFA and it will be noticeably cooler there. A surface
low to north will better organize Sat and the development of sw
surface winds and a prominent 85h thermal ridge will keep the
unseasonably warm temperatures going. Low level mstr will be able
to hold across the Lower Trans Pecos and the far e-ne CWFA where
LI/s of -2 to -5 are progged. However it will be cool across Lower
Trans Pecos and that will result in large CINH and with an
elevated mixed layer parcels will have to be lifted to around
650mb in e-ne, this doesn`t seem too likely. Mid level winds will
increase Sat and high winds will become a possibility Sat/Sun in
favored areas of the GDP Mtns. A shrtwv trof will pass on Sunday
however dry air will push out ewd ahead of shrtwv trof precluding
the chance for convective development. It will be cooler Sunday,
but temperatures will still be above normal. In wake of said trof
a strong cold front will surge s arriving in the PB Sunday evening.
NAM12 3hr pressure change progs indicate it will be windy with
front, possibly near advisory criteria n of I-20. It will be much
colder Mon with highs U50s-L60s for most areas. Turning warming
though Tue-Thur. GFS is optimistic about dryline developing Wed,
but ECMWF moreso Thur.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry regime to continue through the weekend with westerly flow
aloft continuing. A rather weak surface pressure gradient and an
abundance of high clouds should keep 20 foot winds below 20 mph
today even in the Guadalupe Mountains, though mountain top winds
could flirt at times with Red Flag conditions overnight per the NAM
forecast sounding. Very poor rh recovery expected tonight mainly
west of the Pecos River and fair to good east.

Near critical fire weather conditions expected Friday across the
Guadalupe Mountains. Forecast soundings indicate 20 foot winds
and mixing layer winds increasing to near 20 mph on or after 21z
through 00z Saturday. Mitigating factors will be a brief window for
the 20 mph winds to materialize with a significant amount of high
clouds expected. Will issue no watches at this time for Friday.
Saturday morning rh recovery will be poor west of the Pecos River
and fair to good east.

West to southwest winds will increase through the column Saturday
as a southern stream upper level low pressure area nudges closer
to the forecast area. There is greater confidence that a significant
period of 20 foot winds will reach 20 mph or greater across the
Guadalupe Mountains, Van Horn Highway 54 Corridor and southeast
New Mexico Plains. Since minimum rh/s are expected to be below 10
percent in these areas, we will issue a Fire Weather Watch.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  89  59  91  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              58  89  62  90  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                49  89  57  92  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  59  91  62  89  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           55  92  61  94  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  81  59  84  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   50  87  55  90  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   43  83  48  83  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    59  90  61  91  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  59  90  62  91  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    53  93  59  95  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$
767
FXUS64 KMAF 101730 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014

.UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Will update the public products to cool temperatures a few
degrees due to an abundance of high clouds moving over the
forecast area this afternoon. Will also increase cloud cover
in sky grids this afternoon.

No other changes. Update products will be sent shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See Aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. West winds of 10
to 15 mph and gusty are expected this afternoon with an abundance
of high clouds. Winds should diminish to less than 10 mph after
sunset and continue light overnight. A weak cold front is expected
to track to the Pecos River after 12z Friday resulting in a wind
shift to the northeast at several of the terminals.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds will continue this TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Quasi-zonal flow across the area will lead to another warmer than
normal and dry day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Guidance undercut yesterday`s temperatures and, with westerly
downsloping winds around 10-20 MPH today, have opted to go slightly
higher than guidance with temperatures today. Currently forecasting
95 for Midland, and if this verifies it will tie the current record
high (set in 1948). Expect a pronounced diurnal range over the next
few days with morning low temperatures 30-40 degrees cooler than
afternoon high temperatures. A weak cold front will attempt to
push into the area tonight, but will wash out and provide little
more than a wind shift to the northern Permian Basin.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions continue through the
weekend, with winds being the determining factor in whether or not
critical conditions will be achieved. Please see the fire weather
discussion below for more information. Clouds will increase from the
west Friday and Saturday ahead of an approaching disturbance on
Sunday. As this disturbance passes the area, a strong cold front
will push across the forecast area late Sunday night into Monday.
00z models remained consistent with a dry frontal passage across the
area. The Canadian and ECMWF attempt to bring rain showers across
the northern Permian Basin Monday afternoon courtesy a secondary
trough, but have opted to discount this solution as moisture
across the area appears minimal. Despite the lack of rain,
Sunday/Monday`s front will bring strong winds (with pressure
rises behind the front on the order of of 14-18 mb/6 hr). Monday`s
temperatures will drop below seasonal normals behind the front
into the upper 50s to low 60s for much of the area. The remainder
of the week looks mostly dry with near normal temperatures before
another system approaches the area in the Thursday/Friday
timeframe.

FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry air is in place today across the entire area with minimum
afternoon humidities dropping into the single digits in most
locations. The limiting factor for critical fire weather conditions
today is wind speeds as a surface pressure gradient of 2 mb will not
generate sustained winds of 20 mph. Even the Guadalupe Mountains
will struggle to become windy this afternoon, therefore the Fire
Weather Watch has been cancelled and we will issue a Fire Danger
Statement instead. Mountain passes may funnel the wind to create
isolated areas of 20 mph winds or greater and this will likely
happen at GDP, but again this effect will be too localized to issue
a warning for today.

Expecting similar conditions tomorrow with winds being the limiting
factor. On Saturday a lee trough will deepen increasing winds in
southeastern New Mexico and the upper Trans Pecos in west Texas.
Critical fire weather conditions are possible in these areas though
it is too far out to issue a watch so the fire danger threat will be
handled in the HWO product for now. Critical conditions will be
possible again on Sunday before a cold front moves through Sunday
night increasing minimum RHs above 20 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  89  58  92  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              55  91  60  92  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                51  89  54  89  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  59  91  62  89  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           56  92  59  94  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  81  58  81  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   50  87  54  90  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   50  83  52  85  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    55  90  60  92  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  56  90  61  92  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    51  93  57  94  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99
612
FXUS64 KMAF 101703
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1203 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See Aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. West winds of 10
to 15 mph and gusty are expected this afternoon with an abundance
of high clouds. Winds should diminish to less than 10 mph after
sunset and continue light overnight. A weak cold front is expected
to track to the Pecos River after 12z Friday resulting in a wind
shift to the northeast at several of the terminals.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds will continue this TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Quasi-zonal flow across the area will lead to another warmer than
normal and dry day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Guidance undercut yesterday`s temperatures and, with westerly
downsloping winds around 10-20 MPH today, have opted to go slightly
higher than guidance with temperatures today. Currently forecasting
95 for Midland, and if this verifies it will tie the current record
high (set in 1948). Expect a pronounced diurnal range over the next
few days with morning low temperatures 30-40 degrees cooler than
afternoon high temperatures. A weak cold front will attempt to
push into the area tonight, but will wash out and provide little
more than a wind shift to the northern Permian Basin.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions continue through the
weekend, with winds being the determining factor in whether or not
critical conditions will be achieved. Please see the fire weather
discussion below for more information. Clouds will increase from the
west Friday and Saturday ahead of an approaching disturbance on
Sunday. As this disturbance passes the area, a strong cold front
will push across the forecast area late Sunday night into Monday.
00z models remained consistent with a dry frontal passage across the
area. The Canadian and ECMWF attempt to bring rain showers across
the northern Permian Basin Monday afternoon courtesy a secondary
trough, but have opted to discount this solution as moisture
across the area appears minimal. Despite the lack of rain,
Sunday/Monday`s front will bring strong winds (with pressure
rises behind the front on the order of of 14-18 mb/6 hr). Monday`s
temperatures will drop below seasonal normals behind the front
into the upper 50s to low 60s for much of the area. The remainder
of the week looks mostly dry with near normal temperatures before
another system approaches the area in the Thursday/Friday
timeframe.

FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry air is in place today across the entire area with minimum
afternoon humidities dropping into the single digits in most
locations. The limiting factor for critical fire weather conditions
today is wind speeds as a surface pressure gradient of 2 mb will not
generate sustained winds of 20 mph. Even the Guadalupe Mountains
will struggle to become windy this afternoon, therefore the Fire
Weather Watch has been cancelled and we will issue a Fire Danger
Statement instead. Mountain passes may funnel the wind to create
isolated areas of 20 mph winds or greater and this will likely
happen at GDP, but again this effect will be too localized to issue
a warning for today.

Expecting similar conditions tomorrow with winds being the limiting
factor. On Saturday a lee trough will deepen increasing winds in
southeastern New Mexico and the upper Trans Pecos in west Texas.
Critical fire weather conditions are possible in these areas though
it is too far out to issue a watch so the fire danger threat will be
handled in the HWO product for now. Critical conditions will be
possible again on Sunday before a cold front moves through Sunday
night increasing minimum RHs above 20 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 92  54  89  58  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              94  55  91  60  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                93  51  89  54  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  97  59  91  62  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           95  56  92  59  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          83  61  81  58  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   90  50  87  54  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   85  50  83  52  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    95  55  90  60  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  93  56  90  61  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    97  51  93  57  /   0   0   0   0

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/13
309
FXUS64 KMAF 101127
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds will continue this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Quasi-zonal flow across the area will lead to another warmer than
normal and dry day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Guidance undercut yesterday`s temperatures and, with westerly
downsloping winds around 10-20 MPH today, have opted to go slightly
higher than guidance with temperatures today. Currently forecasting
95 for Midland, and if this verifies it will tie the current record
high (set in 1948). Expect a pronounced diurnal range over the next
few days with morning low temperatures 30-40 degrees cooler than
afternoon high temperatures. A weak cold front will attempt to
push into the area tonight, but will wash out and provide little
more than a wind shift to the northern Permian Basin.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions continue through the
weekend, with winds being the determining factor in whether or not
critical conditions will be achieved. Please see the fire weather
discussion below for more information. Clouds will increase from the
west Friday and Saturday ahead of an approaching disturbance on
Sunday. As this disturbance passes the area, a strong cold front
will push across the forecast area late Sunday night into Monday.
00z models remained consistent with a dry frontal passage across the
area. The Canadian and ECMWF attempt to bring rain showers across
the northern Permian Basin Monday afternoon courtesy a secondary
trough, but have opted to discount this solution as moisture
across the area appears minimal. Despite the lack of rain,
Sunday/Monday`s front will bring strong winds (with pressure
rises behind the front on the order of of 14-18 mb/6 hr). Monday`s
temperatures will drop below seasonal normals behind the front
into the upper 50s to low 60s for much of the area. The remainder
of the week looks mostly dry with near normal temperatures before
another system approaches the area in the Thursday/Friday
timeframe.

FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry air is in place today across the entire area with minimum
afternoon humidities dropping into the single digits in most
locations. The limiting factor for critical fire weather conditions
today is wind speeds as a surface pressure gradient of 2 mb will not
generate sustained winds of 20 mph. Even the Guadalupe Mountains
will struggle to become windy this afternoon, therefore the Fire
Weather Watch has been cancelled and we will issue a Fire Danger
Statement instead. Mountain passes may funnel the wind to create
isolated areas of 20 mph winds or greater and this will likely
happen at GDP, but again this effect will be too localized to issue
a warning for today.

Expecting similar conditions tomorrow with winds being the limiting
factor. On Saturday a lee trough will deepen increasing winds in
southeastern New Mexico and the upper Trans Pecos in west Texas.
Critical fire weather conditions are possible in these areas though
it is too far out to issue a watch so the fire danger threat will be
handled in the HWO product for now. Critical conditions will be
possible again on Sunday before a cold front moves through Sunday
night increasing minimum RHs above 20 percent.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10
764
FXUS64 KMAF 100918
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
418 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Quasi-zonal flow across the area will lead to another warmer than
normal and dry day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Guidance undercut yesterday`s temperatures and, with westerly
downsloping winds around 10-20 MPH today, have opted to go slightly
higher than guidance with temperatures today. Currently forecasting
95 for Midland, and if this verifies it will tie the current record
high (set in 1948). Expect a pronounced diurnal range over the next
few days with morning low temperatures 30-40 degrees cooler than
afternoon high temperatures. A weak cold front will attempt to
push into the area tonight, but will wash out and provide little
more than a wind shift to the northern Permian Basin.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions continue through the
weekend, with winds being the determining factor in whether or not
critical conditions will be achieved. Please see the fire weather
discussion below for more information. Clouds will increase from the
west Friday and Saturday ahead of an approaching disturbance on
Sunday. As this disturbance passes the area, a strong cold front
will push across the forecast area late Sunday night into Monday.
00z models remained consistent with a dry frontal passage across the
area. The Canadian and ECMWF attempt to bring rain showers across
the northern Permian Basin Monday afternoon courtesy a secondary
trough, but have opted to discount this solution as moisture
across the area appears minimal. Despite the lack of rain,
Sunday/Monday`s front will bring strong winds (with pressure
rises behind the front on the order of of 14-18 mb/6 hr). Monday`s
temperatures will drop below seasonal normals behind the front
into the upper 50s to low 60s for much of the area. The remainder
of the week looks mostly dry with near normal temperatures before
another system approaches the area in the Thursday/Friday
timeframe.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry air is in place today across the entire area with minimum
afternoon humidities dropping into the single digits in most
locations. The limiting factor for critical fire weather conditions
today is wind speeds as a surface pressure gradient of 2 mb will not
generate sustained winds of 20 mph. Even the Guadalupe Mountains
will struggle to become windy this afternoon, therefore the Fire
Weather Watch has been cancelled and we will issue a Fire Danger
Statement instead. Mountain passes may funnel the wind to create
isolated areas of 20 mph winds or greater and this will likely
happen at GDP, but again this effect will be too localized to issue
a warning for today.

Expecting similar conditions tomorrow with winds being the limiting
factor. On Saturday a lee trough will deepen increasing winds in
southeastern New Mexico and the upper Trans Pecos in west Texas.
Critical fire weather conditions are possible in these areas though
it is too far out to issue a watch so the fire danger threat will be
handled in the HWO product for now. Critical conditions will be
possible again on Sunday before a cold front moves through Sunday
night increasing minimum RHs above 20 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 92  54  89  58  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              94  55  91  60  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                93  51  89  54  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  97  59  91  62  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           95  56  92  59  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          83  61  81  58  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   90  50  87  54  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   85  50  83  52  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    95  55  90  60  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  93  56  90  61  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    97  51  93  57  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/13
126
FXUS64 KMAF 100522
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light south winds becoming westerly after 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2014/

Very dry and warm westerly flow aloft regime will prevail through
Saturday. Much above normal temperatures are expected due to a
surface lee trough with an associated low level thermal ridge and
downslope flow. Slight cooling is anticipated Friday across
northern sections due to a weak cold front invading but even their
temperatures are still expected to be well above normal. The main
forecast challenge this forecast package continues to be this
weekend. A southern stream system is expected to approach and pass
by during this time period. The last couple of runs of the GFS
model have now fallen in line with the quicker and drier ECMWF,
CMC, and NOGAPS model. Will continue the dry forecast this weekend
and continue to monitor. Breezy conditions look possible Sunday
with cooler and dry weather expected behind this system early next
week with below normal temperatures.

FIRE WEATHER...
A very dry regime is in place thru Friday and as temperatures
continue to trend up the dry unstable state continues to be
re-enforced. Elevated fire wx does exit today in parts of the ern PB
and in the favored areas of the GDP Mtns. RH recovery will be poor
again tonight setting the stage for a rapid decrease in RH Thursday.
Mixed layer wind are definitely stronger on the GFS/NAM12 and the
fire weather watch for GDP Mtns looks good. More of the same Friday
warm/dry/unstable and there will be at least be local fire wx
concerns in the GDP Mtns.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from 11 AM MDT Thursday through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from 11 AM MDT Thursday through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10
986
FXUS64 KMAF 092307
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
607 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2014/

Very dry and warm westerly flow aloft regime will prevail through
Saturday. Much above normal temperatures are expected due to a
surface lee trough with an associated low level thermal ridge and
downslope flow. Slight cooling is anticipated Friday across
northern sections due to a weak cold front invading but even their
temperatures are still expected to be well above normal. The main
forecast challenge this forecast package continues to be this
weekend. A southern stream system is expected to approach and pass
by during this time period. The last couple of runs of the GFS
model have now fallen in line with the quicker and drier ECMWF,
CMC, and NOGAPS model. Will continue the dry forecast this weekend
and continue to monitor. Breezy conditions look possible Sunday
with cooler and dry weather expected behind this system early next
week with below normal temperatures.

FIRE WEATHER...
A very dry regime is in place thru Friday and as temperatures
continue to trend up the dry unstable state continues to be
re-enforced. Elevated fire wx does exit today in parts of the ern PB
and in the favored areas of the GDP Mtns. RH recovery will be poor
again tonight setting the stage for a rapid decrease in RH Thursday.
Mixed layer wind are definitely stronger on the GFS/NAM12 and the
fire weather watch for GDP Mtns looks good. More of the same Friday
warm/dry/unstable and there will be at least be local fire wx
concerns in the GDP Mtns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  92  54  91  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              53  93  57  90  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                46  93  49  88  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  54  92  59  91  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           56  96  56  94  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  86  60  80  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   50  90  49  89  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   36  84  44  81  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  93  58  94  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  57  92  58  91  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    50  97  51  95  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$
269
FXUS64 KMAF 091856
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
156 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Very dry and warm westerly flow aloft regime will prevail through
Saturday. Much above normal temperatures are expected due to a
surface lee trough with an associated low level thermal ridge and
downslope flow. Slight cooling is anticipated Friday across
northern sections due to a weak cold front invading but even their
temperatures are still expected to be well above normal. The main
forecast challenge this forecast package continues to be this
weekend. A southern stream system is expected to approach and pass
by during this time period. The last couple of runs of the GFS
model have now fallen in line with the quicker and drier ECMWF,
CMC, and NOGAPS model. Will continue the dry forecast this weekend
and continue to monitor. Breezy conditions look possible Sunday
with cooler and dry weather expected behind this system early next
week with below normal temperatures.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A very dry regime is in place thru Friday and as temperatures
continue to trend up the dry unstable state continues to be
re-enforced. Elevated fire wx does exit today in parts of the ern PB
and in the favored areas of the GDP Mtns. RH recovery will be poor
again tonight setting the stage for a rapid decrease in RH Thursday.
Mixed layer wind are definitely stronger on the GFS/NAM12 and the
fire weather watch for GDP Mtns looks good. More of the same Friday
warm/dry/unstable and there will be at least be local fire wx
concerns in the GDP Mtns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  92  54  91  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              53  93  57  90  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                46  93  49  88  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  54  92  59  91  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           56  96  56  94  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  86  60  80  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   50  90  49  89  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   36  84  44  81  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  93  58  94  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  57  92  58  91  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    50  97  51  95  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

99/99
740
FXUS64 KMAF 091737
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1237 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR at all terminals today. S-SW wind 10-15kts except less at
INK/PEQ but a low level jet will develop tonight and winds at
FST/MAF will stay relatively higher.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$
682
FXUS64 KMAF 091115
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
615 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Clear skies and light winds will continue to allow for good radiational
cooling this morning, with temperatures across West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico in the 40s and 50s as of 08Z. A developing
lee surface trough today will promote warmer than normal
temperatures in the 80s and 90s. Winds will become breezy later
this morning as the trough`s associated surface pressure gradient
tightens. Northwest flow aloft flatten to a more zonal pattern
tonight, allowing warm and dry conditions persist through the
weekend. Conditional fire weather concerns will exist across the
area as a result of these conditions. The big forecast question,
however, will be if winds reach critical thresholds over the next
few days. Despite forecast soundings indicating deep mixing of the
atmosphere (to around 700 mb) during the afternoon hours over the
next few days, winds aloft appear relatively weak. More
information is in the fire weather discussion below.

Main concerns for the upcoming weekend involve the passage of an
upper level system arriving into our area Sunday. As this system
moves across Texas, a strong cold front dives south into the
forecast area Sunday night into Monday. Models are coming into
better agreement regarding the system. The GFS, odd man out on
previous model runs, had been advertising much-needed rain chances
ahead of this front across the Permian Basin. However, the latest
00z run has come more in line with the ECMWF and Canadian models.
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico look to miss out on rain, with
precipitation shunted farther eastward towards west and north
central Texas. This solution makes sense given the meager moisture
over the area (PWATs ranging from 0.25-0.5 inches on Sunday afternoon) and
better jet dynamics farther east. Consequently, no changes were
made to the previous dry forecast for this weekend.

Expect a much cooler (and breezy) start to next week behind the
Canadian front with Monday`s lows in the 30s and 40s. Freezing
temperatures are not currently in the forecast but anyone with
planting interests will want to keep up with the forecast for
changes. Weak shortwave ridging builds across the area Tuesday behind
the weekend system, allowing temperatures to rebound to near or
slightly above seasonal normals by mid-week.

FIRE WEATHER...
Westerly mid level flow will keep very dry air in the area through
the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Minimum afternoon
humidities will drop into the single digits for a large portion of
the area, but the limiting factor for critical fire weather
conditions will be wind speeds. Winds will remain below 20 mph
despite strong afternoon heating for all areas except the Guadalupe
Mountains which are expected to become windy on Thursday. Have
issued a Fire Weather Watch for Thursday, mainly in the higher
elevations and this will continue to be the area to watch the next
several days. The lower elevations should not see wind speeds exceed
20 mph, however relative humidities dropping below 5 percent in some
locations will mean there will be an elevated fire weather danger
for all of southeast New Mexico and west Texas, and outdoor burning
is discouraged.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10
501
FXUS64 KMAF 090921
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
421 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies and light winds will continue to allow for good radiational
cooling this morning, with temperatures across West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico in the 40s and 50s as of 08Z. A developing
lee surface trough today will promote warmer than normal
temperatures in the 80s and 90s. Winds will become breezy later
this morning as the trough`s associated surface pressure gradient
tightens. Northwest flow aloft flatten to a more zonal pattern
tonight, allowing warm and dry conditions persist through the
weekend. Conditional fire weather concerns will exist across the
area as a result of these conditions. The big forecast question,
however, will be if winds reach critical thresholds over the next
few days. Despite forecast soundings indicating deep mixing of the
atmosphere (to around 700 mb) during the afternoon hours over the
next few days, winds aloft appear relatively weak. More
information is in the fire weather discussion below.

Main concerns for the upcoming weekend involve the passage of an
upper level system arriving into our area Sunday. As this system
moves across Texas, a strong cold front dives south into the
forecast area Sunday night into Monday. Models are coming into
better agreement regarding the system. The GFS, odd man out on
previous model runs, had been advertising much-needed rain chances
ahead of this front across the Permian Basin. However, the latest
00z run has come more in line with the ECMWF and Canadian models.
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico look to miss out on rain, with
precipitation shunted farther eastward towards west and north
central Texas. This solution makes sense given the meager moisture
over the area (PWATs ranging from 0.25-0.5 inches on Sunday afternoon) and
better jet dynamics farther east. Consequently, no changes were
made to the previous dry forecast for this weekend.

Expect a much cooler (and breezy) start to next week behind the
Canadian front with Monday`s lows in the 30s and 40s. Freezing
temperatures are not currently in the forecast but anyone with
planting interests will want to keep up with the forecast for
changes. Weak shortwave ridging builds across the area Tuesday behind
the weekend system, allowing temperatures to rebound to near or
slightly above seasonal normals by mid-week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Westerly mid level flow will keep very dry air in the area through
the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Minimum afternoon
humidities will drop into the single digits for a large portion of
the area, but the limiting factor for critical fire weather
conditions will be wind speeds. Winds will remain below 20 mph
despite strong afternoon heating for all areas except the Guadalupe
Mountains which are expected to become windy on Thursday. Have
issued a Fire Weather Watch for Thursday, mainly in the higher
elevations and this will continue to be the area to watch the next
several days. The lower elevations should not see wind speeds exceed
20 mph, however relative humidities dropping below 5 percent in some
locations will mean there will be an elevated fire weather danger
for all of southeast New Mexico and west Texas, and outdoor burning
is discouraged.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 86  54  92  54  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              86  55  93  57  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                89  49  93  49  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  91  56  92  59  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           88  56  94  56  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          81  58  86  60  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   85  45  90  49  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   80  39  84  44  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  57  93  58  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  85  58  92  58  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    91  51  97  51  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10/13

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