Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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976
FXUS64 KMAF 080948
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
448 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show convection has diminished across the region, as the
upper ridge builds/strengthens back over Texas for the next few
days.  Despite some expected mid/high cloud moving in from the WSW,
temps should continue warming back to just above normal this
afternoon.  Models continue warming over the next couple of days,
peaking Wednesday afternoon, w/H85 temps around 28C.  For short term
temps, we`ve continued leaning towards the lwr end of guidance.

Wednesday afternoon/night, the next cold front arrives, courtesy of
a trough traversing the upper CONUS.  Models have been all over the
place w/the timing of this feature, but seem to be coming into
agreement w/each run.  The NAM brings a pre-frontal trough thru KMAF
late Wednesday afternoon, then the front around 03Z Thursday.  The
GFS is similar, while the ECMWF/CMC lag by a few hours.  The
thinking here is that diurnal heating will slow/stall the front
somewhere in the S. Plains Wednesday afternoon, w/fropa at KMAF
shortly after 00Z Thursday.  This will be the focus of convection
beginning Wednesday night, and continuing thru Friday night.  Models
hint at stalling the front mid-CWA Friday, w/sfc flow not veering
back to SE until Saturday afternoon.  We`ll increase POPs slightly
during these time periods, and expand coverage a bit.

Otherwise, below-normal temps follow the front into the extended.
We`ve continued trending w/the warmer GFS/DGEX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 87  70  94  70  /  10  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              90  69  95  71  /  10   0  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                85  67  93  69  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  92  70  94  71  /  10   0  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           90  69  96  72  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  66  84  65  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   85  66  90  66  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   81  59  87  60  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    90  69  95  72  /  10   0  10   0
ODESSA TX                  89  70  94  72  /  10   0  10   0
WINK TX                    91  69  98  72  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/44

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