Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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126
FXUS64 KMAF 100522
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light south winds becoming westerly after 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2014/

Very dry and warm westerly flow aloft regime will prevail through
Saturday. Much above normal temperatures are expected due to a
surface lee trough with an associated low level thermal ridge and
downslope flow. Slight cooling is anticipated Friday across
northern sections due to a weak cold front invading but even their
temperatures are still expected to be well above normal. The main
forecast challenge this forecast package continues to be this
weekend. A southern stream system is expected to approach and pass
by during this time period. The last couple of runs of the GFS
model have now fallen in line with the quicker and drier ECMWF,
CMC, and NOGAPS model. Will continue the dry forecast this weekend
and continue to monitor. Breezy conditions look possible Sunday
with cooler and dry weather expected behind this system early next
week with below normal temperatures.

FIRE WEATHER...
A very dry regime is in place thru Friday and as temperatures
continue to trend up the dry unstable state continues to be
re-enforced. Elevated fire wx does exit today in parts of the ern PB
and in the favored areas of the GDP Mtns. RH recovery will be poor
again tonight setting the stage for a rapid decrease in RH Thursday.
Mixed layer wind are definitely stronger on the GFS/NAM12 and the
fire weather watch for GDP Mtns looks good. More of the same Friday
warm/dry/unstable and there will be at least be local fire wx
concerns in the GDP Mtns.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from 11 AM MDT Thursday through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from 11 AM MDT Thursday through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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