Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 252312

512 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

See 00Z aviation discussin below.


VFR and west to southwest winds through most of the TAF period
shifting from the northeast late as a cold front arrives.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014/

A few changes to the previous forecast but nothing too major, the
next 7 days look to remain relatively uneventful weather-wise across
southeast New Mexico and west Texas. This afternoon, temperatures
have generally warmed into 50s most locations with notable SW
winds gusting up to 25mph across northern zones. This is due to a
strengthening lee surface trough extending south through eastern
New Mexico. Elevated wind speeds continuing tonight will likely
keep overnight lows from tanking so bumped temps up a bit, closer
to warmer guidance.

Northwest flow aloft today will become nearly zonal Wednesday and
remain so through the weekend, keeping Arctic air bottled to the
north. A weak cold front will sink south into NE zones tomorrow
but a weak wind shift to the NE is all that is anticipated and
high temperatures will warm to the 60s most places. The warming
trend continues Thursday with the return of southerly winds at the
surface thanks to a developing lee surface trough. As this surface
trough extends southward Friday and Saturday, expect southwest
downsloping winds to push high temperatures near or above 70
through Sunday. Quick side note, a weak upper disturbance will
slowly move east over the southern half of the CWA Thursday and
Friday however the only affects seem to be a slower warming trend
for Big Bend areas. Otherwise, expect dry conditions to persist.

Beyond Sunday, ua flow looks to back slightly to the southwest in
response to the next upper trough entering the PacNW and digging
into the Rockies early in the week. This trough could be our next
shot at rain for mainly eastern portions of the region, where best
moisture will exist. Forecast models differ on the speed of the
upper trough and therefore the arrival of the associated upper
forcing for ascent. Will keep silent PoPs in the forecast for
day 8 (next Tuesday) and continue to monitor the evolution of this
scenario in subsequent model runs.






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