Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 221142

537 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2014


See 12z aviation discussion below.



Winds will be gusty and elevated out of the west and will gradually
shift to the northwest this afternoon.  Winds will decrease in
intensity around 00z before a cold front begins to push into the
area by 12z with more gusty winds.  There is a chance of light rain
and snow after 06z with HOB having the best chances of
precipitation.  Ceilings will start decreasing around 12z or just


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CST Monday...A taste of winter will be
coming to West Texas and Southeast New Mexico tonight.

Water vapor imagery and GOES High Density winds are showing a
shortwave and associated jet max diving southeast through the
Bitterroot/Blue Mtns of Eastern WA and Idaho. This feature will
move rapidly southeast and deepen the trof in the central US.
After another dry day with above normal temps a cold front
associated with the trof will move south into the Southern Plains
tonight. The NAM and especially the ECMWF continue to be wetter
and colder with this system. Rain showers will develop this
evening...mainly north and east of the Pecos River and spread
south overnight. Model fcst soundings indc the precip changing to
snow showers in northern Lea County after midnight...with a mix of
rain/snow showers in the Northwest Permian Basin down to a
Hobbs/Carlsbad line. With the ground warm would not expect any
snow accumulation on roadways...but there could be a dusting on
grassy surfaces and overpasses in Northern Lea County. The threat
of showers continues on Tuesday...mainly in the morning. Showers
could make as far south as the Davis Mtns but the Rio Grande
Valley and most of Big Bend will remain dry. Forecast soundings
indc it could be cold enough Tue morning for a mix of rain/snow
showers down to a Midland/Wink line. It should be cold enough for
snow showers in the higher elevations of the Davis Mtns.

The cold airmass sticks around Tuesday night/Wednesday with lows
mainly in the 20s and aftn highs in the 50s. Dry weather with
above normal temps are expected on Christmas Day as ridging moves
over the Plains. The next shortwave moves from Northern CA into
the Rockies on Friday. Temps on Friday will be tricky and could be
warmer than the current forecast. Another cold front dives south
into the CWA Sat bringing colder temps. The ECMWF is much stronger
than the GFS keeping Sat highs in the 40s to mid 50s with the
threat of showers. For now...have made little change to the
extended keeping the weekend dry with near normal temps. Zonal
flow will keep the CWA dry with mild temps next Sunday and Monday.







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