Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 012248

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
448 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

See aviation discussion below.


VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals under clear skies. Wind will
generally be northwest at under 10 mph.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 213 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/


A rather benign weather pattern is on tap for southeast New Mexico
and west Texas for the next several days. Visible satellite imagery
shows mid and high level clouds continuing to push south and east,
with quasizonal midlevel flow over the region today as well as weak
thermal ridging allowing for near normal highs around 60 degrees
north to around 70 degrees across the Rio Grande Valley. Light winds
and mostly clear skies tonight will set the tone for ample
radiational cooling, with lows expected to be 6 to 10 degrees cooler
than last night, though a drier boundary layer will preclude dense
fog development as observed the past couple of nights. Lows tonight
will range from the lower to middle 20s across southeast New Mexico
and the higher terrain of southwest Texas to the middle to upper 30s
for the Lower Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.

A weak shortwave rounding the back side of the departing upper low
will push a weak cold front through the area early Wednesday with
little fanfare aside from a shift to northwesterly flow aloft and
slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Temperatures will rebound close to normal by Thursday, with flow
aloft backing to the southwest by the start of the weekend ahead of
the next upper low to the west.  In a change from previous model
runs, the GFS is now trending toward a shallower trough passage
Saturday night/Sunday, which is in line with the latest ECMWF. This
outcome would would result in a northward shift in associated
precipitation chances, with perhaps only portions of southeast New
Mexico and the far northern Permian Basin seeing precipitation from
this system; it will continue to bear watching as the weekend draws
closer. Otherwise, the remainder of the extended looks dry, with
just a brief stint of cooler temperatures Sunday in the wake of the
trough, with temperatures slowly moderating early next week.





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