Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 040526

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015


Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.



VFR conditions with southeasterly winds will prevail through the
forecast period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/


An upper ridge will continue to be the dominant feature over the
forecast area through the weekend which will result in high
temperatures remaining above normal.  However, a plume of mid and
upper level moisture will continue to impinge upon the higher
terrain, and allow for a slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, and again Friday.  Surface dewpoints are only
marginally sufficient for convective development, but there will be
a modest uptick from the previous couple of days.  The mentioned
plume of moisture will spread northward over the weekend, while
the ua ridge will build a little further westward.  Will still
carry a low chance of thunderstorms over the higher terrain both
days though as surface dewpoints will continue to rise.  Any
storms that develop through the weekend will be capable of gusty
winds, due to a dry subcloud layer, and at least brief heavy

Not much will change Monday and Tuesday, but an upper trough
currently over the northwestern ConUS will eject northeastward late
this weekend, with another shortwave trough translating eastward
over the northern U.S. Plains through mid next week.  This should
weaken the upper ridge over the region, and possibly result in a
better chance of rain as a cold front is progged to drop south into
west Texas.  Will carry at least a low order chance of thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday.  Temperatures will end up near normal if the
front makes it into the area, or be several degrees below normal if
convection aids a better push of cooler air southward.  Will likely
stay on the warm side of guidance until it becomes more clear on how
far south the front moves.




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