Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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306
FXUS64 KMAF 050508
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1208 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. A scattered
to broken MVFR deck may try to develop around 12Z at KFST and
KMAF, though low confidence precludes mention in the current TAF.
Will continue to monitor. Southeast winds will continue through
the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 151 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Above normal temperatures will continue this weekend, Labor Day and
into mid next week as an upper ridge continues to plague the region.
An upper trough over the northwestern U.S. will eject northeastward
into south central Canada by Sunday, but this will do little to
phase the ua ridge over Texas.  There may be a few thunderstorms
this afternoon/evening, and again Saturday, as surface dewpoints and
mid level theta e gradually increase, but the ua ridge appears to be
strong enough to prevent much convection from developing.  High
temperatures will be 5-7 degrees above normal through Labor Day, but
it does not appear we will crack record territory.

On Sunday, the upper ridge will become a little dilapidated from the
above mentioned ua trough ejecting into Canada, and will become more
southwest to northeast oriented over the region.  This will allow
mid and upper level moisture, some of which will peel away from
deteriorating Tropical Storm Kevin, to increase over western
portions of the forecast area.  Since surface dewpoints will also
rise into the mid and upper 50s throughout the higher terrain,
expect scattered thunderstorms to develop.  A surface trough will
strengthen south into the region Labor Day and nudge east, which
will allow for thunderstorm development across southeast New Mexico
and the Trans Pecos of west Texas.  Coverage may still not be that
great, but it does portend more change.  Gusty winds and heavy
rainfall will be possible with any storms that develop, but coverage
is still not expected to be more than 30 percent.

Another ua trough will follow the first over the northwestern U.S.
Tuesday, flatten the ua ridge somewhat, and aid in shunting the ua
ridge westward as the trough amplifies over the eastern ConUS late
next week.  This could possibly send a cold front into the area as
early as Thursday, with cooler conditions perhaps into next weekend.
This is still pretty far out in the extended, but will at least
carry a chance of thunderstorms, and cool temperatures off to normal
or below these days.  Stay tuned, especially since there are some
indications high temperatures could only be in the 80s Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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