Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 181117

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
617 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

See 12Z aviation discussion below.


MAF and a few locations along I-20 are seeing VFR conditions at
the time of TAF issuance, but other area obs show this is
localized and MVFR/IFR conditions should dominate the next 24
hours. Kept the TAFs simple with current conditions generally
expected the next 12 hours followed by a slight worsening of
CIG/VIS tonight. Isold TS will not be mentioned in the predominant
group but could affect local area flying.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016/

A broad upper trough remains west of the region today resulting
in persistently unsettled SW flow aloft and continued rain
chances. At the surface, a cold front will be somewhat stationary
across the far southern zones today with cool easterly flow
across areas north of the front. This front may play a part in the
potential for thunderstorms across southern zones later this
afternoon. As of 3 am CDT, there were some light showers with an
embedded thunderstorm or two moving across SE NM and northern
Permian Basin. Not really expecting much more coverage through
sunrise. We continue to see high winds reported at Guadalupe Pass
overnight but speeds are expected to drop below high winds
criteria by 12Z at which point the High Wind Warning will expire.

The main upper low, now located over AZ, will slowly move east today
and weaken, becoming an open wave as it approaches the western zones
this evening. Upper forcing for ascent will slowly increase through
today as the system nears, aiding in fairly good rain chances for
most locations through Thursday morning, after which the upper
system begins to lift to the NE. Most areas look to remain cloudy
today with highs well below normal however the Davis Mountains, Big
Bend and Terrell Co. areas may see some clearing/heating and
therefore descent destabilization near the frontal boundary. That
said, could see some strong to severe thunderstorms develop and move
east through the evening hours. Large hail looks to be the main
threat however storms may produce strong winds and heavy rainfall.
Models hit at maybe an MCS developing near the lower Trans Pecos
late tonight. Some of these areas have already seen fairly descent
rainfall lately so will have to continue to monitor for the
potential of some localized flooding.

Thursday, rain chances will end from west to east as the upper
trough lifts NE. Weak upper ridging will briefly move overhead,
resulting in a warming trend and a lull in rain chances Friday and
Saturday. Meanwhile, a large upper trough will dig south down the
west coast by the weekend with SW flow aloft developing once again
over the region. A dryline looks to develop Saturday but little to
no movement is expected due to the upper trough being too far west.
Better eastward push of the dryline expected Sunday, as a shortwave
swings through the Four Corners region, so will continue to carry
thunderstorm chances mainly for the Permian Basin Sunday afternoon
and evening. There is a possibility we could see some strong to
severe storms so stay tuned to the latest forecast. Otherwise, near
normal temperatures expected this weekend then temps warm into
the 90s most places by mid next week.


Big Spring                     59  53  70  55 /  60  70  50  20
Carlsbad                       60  51  75  53 /  60  50  20  10
Dryden                         75  61  79  61 /  50  80  40  20
Fort Stockton                  65  55  75  57 /  60  70  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 56  47  71  54 /  50  50  20  10
Hobbs                          55  49  70  52 /  60  60  30  10
Marfa                          66  48  74  47 /  50  70  30  10
Midland Intl Airport           59  54  72  54 /  70  70  40  10
Odessa                         60  53  73  55 /  70  70  40  10
Wink                           63  52  76  55 /  70  60  30  10


.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...High Wind Warning until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains.



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