Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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985
FXUS64 KMAF 241017
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
417 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper closed low over AZ this morning will swing into NM later today
and will pass across the area overnight.  A broad upper trough will
swing down across the center of the country Wednesday and Thursday.
Another strong upper trough will work down the West Coast Friday and
Saturday and start approaching the area by early next week.  All
this adds up to unsettled wx for the region into next week.

Have some light radar returns this morning north of the area over
Eastern NM that should be associated with a shear axis attached to
the AZ low.  This axis is expected to lift northward taking those
echos/light precip away from the area.  As of 10z have no precip
falling across the area and none expected this morning so will
cancel the Winter Weather Advisory with package issuance.  Will
issue a SPS and mention possibility of some slick roads remaining
into the morning.  Across the Midland/Odessa area most roads are
dry as yesterdays precipitation has sublimated.

Light wind this morning will not have time to come around to the
south today before another boundary moves through and shifts it back
to the north.  There is a question of how much sunshine will be seen
today as various guidance keeps the area broken to overcast all
day... but model RH at the different levels not showing that much
cloud cover present.  Early this morning low clouds not showing up
well on satellite but observations indicate stratus covers most of
the area with high clouds across northern CWA.  Believe today will
start out cloudy and should lose the low clouds during the day with
some sunshine expected by afternoon.  Yesterday MAF set a daily
record min max with a high of 24... smashing the old record of 40
degrees from 2010.  Will be staying toward the cold side of guidance
again today with highs expected to make into the 40s north of the
Pecos river with 50s and 60s south of it.  Wednesday still looks
like the warm day of the week as a south wind returns with highs in
the 60s becoming widespread.  Another cold front will blow into the
area late Wednesday/early Thursday with north wind quickly
returning.  Highs in the 40s and 50s Thursday with more 30s across
the north on Friday.  Temperatures recover over the weekend with 70s
becoming widespread by Sunday.

The approaching low may produce some showers late this afternoon or
evening over SE NM then spread across the area tonight.  Some of
this precip tonight may change over to a rain/freezing rain mix
mainly over the Eastern Permian Basin.  Pops too low to issue any
kind of winter wx product but will mention in HWO.  Could see some
light snow drift down into the northern CWA late Thursday/early
Friday with precip of rain during the day and mixed precip overnight
continuing through the weekend.  Currently have multiple periods of
low pops/low confidence so will not get too excited about any
particular day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 45  28  65  32  /  10  20   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              44  30  66  32  /  10  30   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                44  27  67  33  /  10  30   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  51  33  71  40  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           50  33  67  33  /  10  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          44  25  59  30  /  10  40   0   0
HOBBS NM                   45  27  64  30  /  10  20   0   0
MARFA TX                   62  27  63  29  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    46  29  66  33  /  10  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                  46  29  66  34  /  10  20   0   0
WINK TX                    48  30  68  34  /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/72

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