Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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438
FXUS64 KMAF 311913
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
213 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The center of an upper ridge over the region will shift westward
during the weekend due to an amplifying ua trough over the eastern
U.S., and take up temporary residence near the Four Corners region.
The ridge will be a little weaker as a result, which will allow for
an increase in thunderstorm chances for a few days.  Models indicate
a westward moving, but weak, shortwave trough over the Lower Trans
Pecos today which will end up in the vicinity of the Davis
Mountains late this afternoon.  This, along with slightly higher
theta e air in these areas, could allow for isolated
thunderstorms there into this evening.  The only other locations
which may see convection through the afternoon would be the
northern fringes of the forecast area where higher theta e air
resides. Due to a dry subcloud layer and lack of shear, any storms
could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and perhaps brief
heavy rainfall.

Another stronger shortwave trough will translate south/southeastward
around the weakening ua ridge tonight and Saturday, with an outflow
boundary or two at the surface likely moving into the area.
Therefore, will add isolated PoPs over portions of the eastern CWA
tonight, and leave scattered convection already in the forecast for
Saturday.  Temperatures will not be quite as hot Saturday, but
should warm back near the century mark most locations outside the
mountains Sunday as the ua ridge begins to expand back eastward.
The ua ridge won`t be as strong as the last few days, and higher
theta e air will linger over portions of the Permian Basin and SE NM
through Sunday, and the higher terrain through early next week.
Will leave slight chances for thunderstorms these areas, but the
general trend through early next week will be for mainly dry
conditions and temperatures staying several degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  74  95  75  98  /  20  30  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                    73  98  70  99  /  10  10  20  10
DRYDEN TX                      76 100  75 101  /  20  20  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               72  95  73  98  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              69  88  69  91  /  10  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                       68  94  69  95  /  20  20  20  10
MARFA TX                       61  89  63  89  /  10  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        74  97  74  99  /  10  20  10  20
ODESSA TX                      75  97  75  98  /  10  20  10  20
WINK TX                        75 100  74 101  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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