Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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658
FXUS64 KMAF 201712
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1212 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
Low clouds have stuck around most of the Permian Basin all morning
including KMAF. Expect these IFR cigs to break within the next
couple of hours. Thunderstorms currently to our northeast will
continue into north Texas with isolated development possible
across the rest of the region this afternoon. Will not include in
TAFS yet as timing and location of the storms is to be determined.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014/

UPDATE...
Adjustments to this afternoon`s weather grids for southwest Texas.

DISCUSSION...
With clearing skies this morning and ample moisture in place across the
Marfa Plateau, diabatic heating will contribute to convective
development later this afternoon along higher terrain. Latest
model guidance supports this trend and have updated PoP, weather,
QPF, and sky grids. No other changes made to the forecast.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Area radars show lingering SHRA over the SE Permian Basin, and these
should be east of the CWA in another hour or so.  Last night`s
convection was the most widespread event West Texas/SE NM has seen
in some time.  KMAF set a new record rainfall for the day (0.45")
and up to 1.29" was reported, at Terlingua.  MPE came in w/event
totals as high as 1.95", w/highest estimates from the Davis Mtns
south.

WV imagery shows the upper trough currently over NE NM, and forecast
to move slowly thru the panhandles today.  Sfc obs show moisture
backed up well into the mtns, w/dewpoints on nearly 50F or better
thru KELP.  This will begin mixing east after sunrise as SW-W flow
picks up out west.  However, return flow remains weak, and the
dryline will remain relatively diffuse.  Redevelopment along this
feature is anticipated later today, especially if residual
convective cloud cover clears out, as it appears to be doing on
satellite.  By this afternoon, best 0-6km layer shear will be over
the Lwr Trans Pecos, which will be under the right rear quadrant of
the upper jet, all favoring supercell development.  However,
yesterday`s threat was large hail, and both NAM and GFS forecast
soundings for KCNM, SNK, and K6R6 show very similar temp profiles to
yesterday`s 00Z RAOB for KMAF.  W/this in mind, a severe threat will
exist w/any convection that develops, mainly large hail.  This
activity should taper off to the NE this evening as the upper trough
continues moving E thru OK.

Otherwise, temps warm to well-abv normal Monday despite models
bringing a weak front into the area.  An upper ridge then builds
into the region, resulting in temps about 2 cats above normal into
the extended.  By midweek, the ridge is forecast to move off to the
east as an upper trough traverses the U.S./Canadian border.
Wednesday, leeside sfc troughing will induce westerly flow over the
mtns, and this looks to be the next critical fire wx day, mainly
west of the Pecos.  To the east, a dryline is forecast to sharpen
up, w/models initiating convection along this feature Wednesday
afternoon.  Models then bring a weak cold front thru Wednesday night
behind the dryline, but this looks to have negligible affect on
temps Thursday.  Forecast then remains dry thru the rest of the
extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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