Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Current Version | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On

Skip product version selection by date and time.   
396
FXUS64 KMAF 010441
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1141 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mid and high clouds will continue to periodically spread eastward
over the region, but conditions will remain VFR for the duration of
this forecast.  Surface winds will mainly be southeasterly but less
than 15kt sustained.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     59  84  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       58  86  57  88 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         63  85  63  86 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  60  85  62  88 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 57  80  60  81 /  20  10   0   0
Hobbs                          55  82  56  85 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          53  78  50  81 /  20  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           59  84  60  87 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         59  83  61  86 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           61  86  61  90 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
941
FXUS64 KMAF 302307
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
607 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with increasing midlevel clouds are expected
through the forecast period. Winds will remain southeasterly, with
sustained speeds under 12kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 132 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The last day of September had an upper ridge over the area this morning
with a deep low over the Eastern U.S. and a trough along the NW Coast.
This trough will slowly dig down the West Coast before swinging
inland... passing over the Intermountain West late Monday and Northern
Plains Tuesday.

The development of a leeside trough has caused the surface wind to come
back around to the south with increasing low level moisture.  This
should result in warmer overnight lows in the 50s warming into the 60s.
This trough should strengthen early next week with wind speeds
increasing as the pressure gradient tightens.  Expect above normal
highs this weekend through early next week.  Looking at another cold
front blowing through next Thursday to knock the readings back down.

Have had thick cloud cover west of the Pecos River all day as light
rain formed near ELP on a weak shortwave and was moving east across
Culberson and Eddy county as of 18z.  Will keep chances of
showers/storms over the west tonight and Saturday... have expanded pops
into the Western Permian Basin.  Somewhat better chance of rain Monday
night west and Tuesday east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     59  84  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       58  86  57  88 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         63  85  63  86 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  60  85  62  88 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 57  80  60  81 /  20  10   0   0
Hobbs                          55  82  56  85 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          53  78  50  81 /  20  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           59  84  60  87 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         59  83  61  86 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           61  86  61  90 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
080
FXUS64 KMAF 301716
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1216 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. SE winds 8-10kt with mid clouds
increasing from the west through this evening.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016/

This morning our area sits sandwiched between a large, deep upper
low over the Ohio Valley and a deepening trough across the West.
At the surface, high pressure is nosing in behind the weak cold
front that moved through yesterday. Temperatures have cooled
mostly into the 50`s as of 3 AM CDT with 60`s still across the
south where high clouds are thickening. Upper ridging begins to
flatten across our region this weekend while warming occurs in the
mid levels. This will boost afternoon highs back above normal
early next week. A disturbance moving out of Mexico may bring a
few storms this afternoon and Saturday across the higher terrain,
but other than that the forecast will remain dry into Monday.

The aforementioned West Coast trough will deepen as it moves east
early next week. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft and moisture
return at the surface will signal our next best chance of rain
Monday night into Tuesday. This system will bring with it a very
weak Pacific cold front. Model solutions diverge late next week,
but do keep our region mainly dry and warm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  59  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       77  57  83  58 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         78  61  82  61 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  80  60  85  62 /   0  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 72  57  78  59 /  20  10  10   0
Hobbs                          76  56  81  57 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          74  54  78  50 /  10  20  20   0
Midland Intl Airport           80  59  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         79  59  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           81  60  86  61 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
031
FXUS64 KMAF 301055
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
555 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mid and high cloud will spread over the region today, but vFR
conditions will prevail.  Southeast winds of 10 to 15kt are
expected at all area terminals this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016/

This morning our area sits sandwiched between a large, deep upper
low over the Ohio Valley and a deepening trough across the West.
At the surface, high pressure is nosing in behind the weak cold
front that moved through yesterday. Temperatures have cooled
mostly into the 50`s as of 3 AM CDT with 60`s still across the
south where high clouds are thickening. Upper ridging begins to
flatten across our region this weekend while warming occurs in the
mid levels. This will boost afternoon highs back above normal
early next week. A disturbance moving out of Mexico may bring a
few storms this afternoon and Saturday across the higher terrain,
but other than that the forecast will remain dry into Monday.

The aforementioned West Coast trough will deepen as it moves east
early next week. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft and moisture
return at the surface will signal our next best chance of rain
Monday night into Tuesday. This system will bring with it a very
weak Pacific cold front. Model solutions diverge late next week,
but do keep our region mainly dry and warm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  59  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       77  57  83  58 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         78  61  82  61 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  80  60  85  62 /   0  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 72  57  78  59 /  20  10  10   0
Hobbs                          76  56  81  57 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          74  54  78  50 /  10  20  20   0
Midland Intl Airport           80  59  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         79  59  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           81  60  86  61 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/67
781
FXUS64 KMAF 300438
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1138 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Surface winds will gradually veer to the southeast today at 5 to
10kt while VFR conditions prevail at all area terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     54  77  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       56  78  57  85 /  10  20  10  10
Dryden                         62  79  62  84 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  56  76  58  84 /   0  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 55  71  55  79 /  20  20  20  20
Hobbs                          52  77  56  82 /   0  10   0  10
Marfa                          53  72  50  78 /   0  20  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           54  78  59  83 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         53  78  58  83 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           55  79  59  85 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
146
FXUS64 KMAF 292317
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
617 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Light east winds
will gradually veer to the southeast by 18Z Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 201 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A cold front is currently pushing through the area resulting in
cooler temperatures than yesterday with highs today mostly ranging
from the mid 70s to mid 80s.  A large upper low is centered over
Kentucky with upper ridging over West Texas and southeast New
Mexico.

On Friday, winds become southerly again and the upper ridge remains
over the area.  A shortwave/upper level disturbance is expected to
move over Arizona and New Mexico so there is a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain in the CWA
during the afternoon.  The upper level ridging over the region may
weaken a little on Saturday with shortwaves moving near/over the
area so convection will remain possible mainly across the higher
terrain.  Temperatures are expected to warm up to around normal on
Saturday.  Not much change is expected on Sunday, but an increase of
moisture across the eastern CWA may allow an isolated thunderstorm
to develop during the afternoon.  Temperatures on Sunday will likely
increase a little from the previous day.

On Monday, an upper trough will be over the Rocky Mountains so this
may increase upper lift over the far western CWA and allow for an
isolated thunderstorm to develop.  This upper trough will move over
the central conus on Tuesday and allow for a dryline to develop
across the CWA.  There will be a chance of thunderstorms developing
primarily across the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern Permian
Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos.  A Pacific cold front will begin to
move into the area on Wednesday as the upper low passes to the east
of the area.  Then on Wednesday night/Thursday, a cold front is
expect to push into the CWA.  No precipitation is expected
Wednesday afternoon and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     54  77  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       56  78  57  85 /  10  20  10  10
Dryden                         62  79  62  84 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  56  76  58  84 /   0  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 55  71  55  79 /  20  20  20  20
Hobbs                          52  77  56  82 /   0  10   0  10
Marfa                          53  72  50  78 /   0  20  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           54  78  59  83 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         53  78  58  83 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           55  79  59  85 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
164
FXUS64 KMAF 291735
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1235 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Will have post frontal conditions with the wind quickly veering
around to E behind it. A new leeside trough will develop later
today with the wind coming back around to the south by Friday.
Will be VFR with few clouds expected.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A mid level ridge will continue to build across the Plains as a
large upper low cuts off and slides south over the Ohio River
Valley. At the surface, a backdoor cold front will move across the
region today bringing slightly cooler temperatures. Afternoon
highs should be a few degrees below normal today and Friday. The
upper low will lift into the Great Lakes this weekend as a trough
deepens along the West Coast. Temperatures will rise back above
normal early next week in response to a more Zonal flow and
warming in the mid levels. The West Coast trough will shift east
next week bringing with it a Pacific cold front.

Other than a few storms across the higher terrain this weekend, the
region will remain dry. Models differ on the amplitude of next
week`s trough and whether or not we will see any precip with it.
Will continue to monitor, but will keep the forecast next week
mostly dry for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  51  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       80  53  77  56 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         84  58  79  59 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  81  54  79  58 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 72  53  71  56 /   0  10  20  10
Hobbs                          77  51  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          76  50  74  50 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           79  51  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         79  52  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           82  54  80  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
286
FXUS64 KMAF 290900
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
357 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

`Hard to get excited about TAFs this AM, as VFR conditions prevail
next 24 hours under a few high clouds. A weak cold front is moving
into the area so slowly that only a gradual wind shift can be
expected. No convective temps will be reached.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A mid level ridge will continue to build across the Plains as a
large upper low cuts off and slides south over the Ohio River
Valley. At the surface, a backdoor cold front will move across the
region today bringing slightly cooler temperatures. Afternoon
highs should be a few degrees below normal today and Friday. The
upper low will lift into the Great Lakes this weekend as a trough
deepens along the West Coast. Temperatures will rise back above
normal early next week in response to a more Zonal flow and
warming in the mid levels. The West Coast trough will shift east
next week bringing with it a Pacific cold front.

Other than a few storms across the higher terrain this weekend, the
region will remain dry. Models differ on the amplitude of next
week`s trough and whether or not we will see any precip with it.
Will continue to monitor, but will keep the forecast next week
mostly dry for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  51  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       80  53  77  56 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         84  58  79  59 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  81  54  79  58 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 72  53  71  56 /   0  10  20  10
Hobbs                          77  51  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          76  50  74  50 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           79  51  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         79  52  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           82  54  80  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29/44
500
FXUS64 KMAF 290857
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
357 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

`Hard to get excited about TAFs this AM, as VFR conditions prevail
next 24 hours under a few high clouds. A weak cold front is moving
into the area so slowly that only a gradual wind shift can be
expected. No convective temps will be reached.


&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A mid level ridge will continue to build across the Plains as a
large upper low cuts off and slides south over the Ohio River
Valley. At the surface, a backdoor cold front will move across the
region today bringing slightly cooler temperatures. Afternoon
highs should be a few degrees below normal today and Friday. The
upper low will lift into the Great Lakes this weekend as a trough
deepens along the West Coast. Temperatures will rise back above
normal early next week in response to a more Zonal flow and
warming in the mid levels. The West Coast trough will shift east
next week bringing with it a Pacific cold front.

Other than a few storms across the higher terrain this weekend, the
region will remain dry. Models differ on the amplitude of next
week`s trough and whether or not we will see any precip with it.
Will continue to monitor, but will keep the forecast next week
mostly dry for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  51  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       80  53  77  56 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         84  58  79  59 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  81  54  79  58 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 72  53  71  56 /   0  10  20  10
Hobbs                          77  51  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          76  50  74  50 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           79  51  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         79  52  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           82  54  80  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29/44
623
FXUS64 KMAF 290524
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1224 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

`Hard to get excited about TAFs this AM, as VFR conditions prevail
next 24 hours under a few high clouds. A weak cold front is moving
into the area so gradually that only a gradual wind shift can be
expected.  No convective temps will be reached.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 539 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals. Light and variable winds overnight
then a weak cold front mid morning shifts winds to the NE with
speeds generally 10-12kt sustained.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Current satellite is showing cumulus developing in the Davis
Mountains where one or two showers or thunderstorms could occur
this afternoon. However an amplifying upper level ridge will
suppress most convection and keep the area dry through the
weekend.

A deep low over the southern Great Lakes has north winds over the
plains which has brought cooler and drier air into West Texas and
eastern New Mexico the past several days. This low will
unfortunately move east by the weekend causing south winds and
above normal temps to return.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77  53  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       80  57  80  57 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         84  59  79  60 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  81  56  78  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  56  72  57 /   0   0  20  10
Hobbs                          77  53  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          76  51  74  45 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           79  53  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         79  54  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           82  56  80  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29/44
058
FXUS64 KMAF 282239
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
539 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals. Light and variable winds overnight
then a weak cold front mid morning shifts winds to the NE with
speeds generally 10-12kt sustained.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Current satellite is showing cumulus developing in the Davis
Mountains where one or two showers or thunderstorms could occur
this afternoon. However an amplifying upper level ridge will
suppress most convection and keep the area dry through the
weekend.

A deep low over the southern Great Lakes has north winds over the
plains which has brought cooler and drier air into West Texas and
eastern New Mexico the past several days. This low will
unfortunately move east by the weekend causing south winds and
above normal temps to return.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  77  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       58  80  57  80 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         63  84  59  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  60  81  56  78 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 59  71  56  72 /   0   0   0  20
Hobbs                          54  77  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          51  76  51  74 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           57  79  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         57  79  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           59  82  56  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49
816
FXUS64 KMAF 281718
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1218 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 28/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through 29/18Z. A weak
backdoor cold front will move through area terminals in the 14Z-
15Z time range, shifting winds to the northeast with speeds up
near 10 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviaition Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light/variable flow.
No convection anticipated, and convective temps will not be
realized. A weak cold front will ooze into the region Wednesday
night.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Hard to find much to talk about weatherwise around here over the
next week. A deep upper low will cut off and sag south over the Ohio
River Valley while upper ridging builds in over the Plains this
week. Temperatures will warm back to near normal this afternoon as
mid level heights increase overhead. The upper low to our east will
send a weak backdoor cold front through the area overnight tonight.
This will bring temperatures back down a few degrees below normal
Thursday and Friday. Expect a warming trend by the weekend
underneath a more zonal flow.

Mid level ridging and subsidence will deter any precip from
developing through the week other than a few isolated showers in
the higher terrain. Extended range models show a stronger cold
front is possible sometime next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     85  58  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       82  58  79  55 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         83  63  83  58 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  83  59  80  56 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 76  58  72  53 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          81  56  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          77  51  75  49 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           85  57  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         83  58  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           85  59  81  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/10/70
546
FXUS64 KMAF 280846
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
346 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviaition Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light/variable flow.
No convection anticipated, and convective temps will not be
realized. A weak cold front will ooze into the region Wednesday
night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Hard to find much to talk about weatherwise around here over the
next week. A deep upper low will cut off and sag south over the Ohio
River Valley while upper ridging builds in over the Plains this
week. Temperatures will warm back to near normal this afternoon as
mid level heights increase overhead. The upper low to our east will
send a weak backdoor cold front through the area overnight tonight.
This will bring temperatures back down a few degrees below normal
Thursday and Friday. Expect a warming trend by the weekend
underneath a more zonal flow.

Mid level ridging and subsidence will deter any precip from
developing through the week other than a few isolated showers in
the higher terrain. Extended range models show a stronger cold
front is possible sometime next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     85  58  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       82  58  79  55 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         83  63  83  58 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  83  59  80  56 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 76  58  72  53 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          81  56  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          77  51  75  49 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           85  57  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         83  58  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           85  59  81  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29/44
073
FXUS64 KMAF 280458
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1158 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviaition Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light/variable flow.
No convection anticipated, and convective temps will not be
realized.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 254 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The southern High Plains will remain sandwiched between an
anomalously cold closed low over the Great Lakes states and a
deepening long wave trough off the west coast of North America.
With clearing and drying conditions forecast for Wednesday,
temperatures should have no problem returning to the mid 70s
mountains to mid 80s along the Rio Grande. The Great Lakes low is
forecast to drop south over the Ohio River valley over the next
few days. This will in turn send a backdoor cold front across west
Texas and southeastern New Mexico Thursday morning, knocking down
temperatures slightly. Temperatures will be quick to rebound,
however, and the warming trend will continue through the weekend,
with widespread 80s expected. Indeed, by this time next week, high
temperatures should range from the upper 70s mountains to lower
90s across the Pecos River valley.

Precipitation chances will wane, as a closed low over Baja
California is absorbed into the aforementioned eastern Pacific
long wave trough. The southern High Plains weather will then be
influenced by a high amplitude ridge, and as such will hang onto
low precipitation chances across far west Texas this weekend, with
the remainder of the area remaining dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     79  55  84  58 /  10   0  10  10
Carlsbad                       75  51  82  60 /  10   0  10  10
Dryden                         75  58  82  64 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  75  57  82  61 /  10   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 69  53  75  58 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          75  50  82  57 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          70  49  77  58 /  20  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           78  54  84  58 /  10   0  10  10
Odessa                         77  54  83  59 /  10   0  10  10
Wink                           77  52  84  61 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29/44
286
FXUS64 KMAF 272311
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
611 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions overnight with only some mid/high clouds encroaching
from the s-sw. Loose MSLP gradient to result in light wind overnight
as well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 254 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The southern High Plains will remain sandwiched between an
anomalously cold closed low over the Great Lakes states and a
deepening long wave trough off the west coast of North America.
With clearing and drying conditions forecast for Wednesday,
temperatures should have no problem returning to the mid 70s
mountains to mid 80s along the Rio Grande. The Great Lakes low is
forecast to drop south over the Ohio River valley over the next
few days. This will in turn send a backdoor cold front across west
Texas and southeastern New Mexico Thursday morning, knocking down
temperatures slightly. Temperatures will be quick to rebound,
however, and the warming trend will continue through the weekend,
with widespread 80s expected. Indeed, by this time next week, high
temperatures should range from the upper 70s mountains to lower
90s across the Pecos River valley.

Precipitation chances will wane, as a closed low over Baja
California is absorbed into the aforementioned eastern Pacific
long wave trough. The southern High Plains weather will then be
influenced by a high amplitude ridge, and as such will hang onto
low precipitation chances across far west Texas this weekend, with
the remainder of the area remaining dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     55  84  58  76 /   0  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       51  82  60  78 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                         58  82  64  83 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  57  82  61  80 /   0  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 53  75  58  72 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          50  82  57  78 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                          49  77  58  73 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           54  84  58  78 /   0  10  10  10
Odessa                         54  83  59  78 /   0  10  10  10
Wink                           52  84  61  81 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
901
FXUS64 KMAF 271632
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1132 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mid and high cloud will persist over area terminals, but lower
ceilings are not expected.  VFR conditions will persist into
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     79  56  85  58 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       75  57  81  61 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         75  61  83  65 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  75  59  83  62 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 69  56  75  59 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          75  56  81  57 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          70  54  77  58 /  20  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           78  57  84  59 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         77  58  83  60 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           77  58  84  61 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
838
FXUS64 KMAF 271051
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
551 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
Rain showers dissipating across the Permian Basin this morning.
Mid level clouds will hang on into the early afternoon before
clearing. VFR conditions will prevail with light and variable
winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico in a col,
between a renegade cut-off low over Baja, and an upper trough north
of the Great Lakes region.  Models are consistent in taking the cut-
off low north into CA over the next couple of days, and opening it
up and phasing it back into SW flow aloft.  Meanwhile, upper-lvl
ridging will develop from the south, resulting in a general warming
trend. The only exception to this is that the upper-lvl trough to
the NE is forecast to drift south into the eastern CONUS this week,
pushing a cold front into the region Wednesday night, and taking
temps back to below-normal Thu/Fri.  Otherwise, temps should top
out at around a cat above normal next week.

W/the ridge building in, rain chances look slim.  Best chances look
to be today in southern zones invof the old frontal boundary.
Otherwise, chances during the week should be confined to the higher
terrain near the outer periphery of the ridge.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     79  56  85  58 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       75  57  81  61 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         75  61  83  65 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  75  59  83  62 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 69  56  75  59 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          75  56  81  57 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          70  54  77  58 /  20  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           78  57  84  59 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         77  58  83  60 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           77  58  84  61 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/99/
271
FXUS64 KMAF 270438
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1138 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
Scattered showers continue across the Permian Basin and Trans
Pecos. No reduction in visbys is expected and conditions should
remain VFR. Mid level clouds will begin to clear later today with
winds remaining light and variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  53  78  55 /  30  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       68  53  74  55 /  30  10  10  10
Dryden                         68  58  75  60 /  80  50  20  10
Fort Stockton                  64  53  72  57 /  70  40  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 54  49  69  54 /  70  30  20  10
Hobbs                          69  54  74  54 /  30  10  10   0
Marfa                          60  53  67  53 /  60  50  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           71  55  76  55 /  30  10  10   0
Odessa                         70  55  74  55 /  30  10  10   0
Wink                           70  56  75  57 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29
129
FXUS64 KMAF 261804
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
104 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Strong northeast winds have lingered through Guadalupe Pass early
this afternoon.  However, expect speeds to drop off in the next hour
or so below 40 mph sustained as the surface pressure gradient
relaxes, and surface pressure rises continue to decrease. Therefore,
have allowed the High Wind Warning to expire at 26/18Z.
A surface ridge over the region will linger here through Wednesday
and provide stable conditions along with below normal temps this
afternoon and Tuesday before readings rise to near normal levels
Wednesday.  Low level easterly flow and isentropic upglide in the
mid levels will keep a canopy of clouds over the area tonight and
Tuesday and provide enough lift for light rain, but mainly along and
south of Interstate 10, except also in the Guadalupe Mountains.
Will keep PoPs going tonight and Tuesday over the southern and
western reaches of the forecast area into Tuesday.  The cutoff low
is over the central Baja Peninsula this afternoon, but will lift
north into SoCal Wednesday before ejecting northeastward through the
Great Basin ahead of the next western CONUS upper trough.  Upper
ridging will take over across the region Tuesday and beyond, but the
above mentioned next upper trough will eventually suppress the upper
ridge southward this weekend.

The flow aloft will become southwesterly next weekend as an upper
trough approaches from the west.  In typical fashion, models are
already vacillating on the strengthen, depth and timing of this ua
trough.  It does appear we could see temperatures rise above normal
late next weekend into early next week, as a dryline forms over the
area.  The forecast will contain at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday over the higher terrain as
the upper ridge flattens.  PoPs will also be carried in the forecast
Sunday and Monday for the possibility of the dryline forming and
moving east across the area, perhaps on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of light to moderate showers are expected to continue mainly
for areas along and south of the Pecos River through the overnight
period. Elevated and gusty northeast winds will become lighter
during the afternoon and become variable after sunset. There is a
chance of low ceilings and visibilities developing after sunset
especially for HOB, INK, FST, and PEQ.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  78  55  84 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       53  74  55  82 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         58  75  60  85 /  50  20  10  10
Fort Stockton                  53  72  57  83 /  40  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 49  69  54  75 /  30  20  10  10
Hobbs                          54  74  54  81 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          53  67  53  77 /  50  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           55  76  55  84 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                         55  74  55  83 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           56  75  57  85 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/67
284
FXUS64 KMAF 261128
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
628 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers are ongoing this morning, though have only
included -RA mention at FST and PEQ where precipitation looks to
be more persistent. VFR conditions are expected to continue at
CNM, HOB, INK, and MAF, with prevailing VFR expected at PEQ by
18Z, though ongoing rain and perhaps a thunderstorm could maintain
MVFR/IFR conditions at FST as late as 27/00Z. Northeast winds will
continue, with gusts diminishing this afternoon, and light winds
expected overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery shows the upper low INVOF Baja Calif with
rich moisture still in place to the e with diffluent flow
aloft across the Trans Pecos. Isentropic lift is still ongoing
across the CWFA and with such rich moisture being lifted
scattered -SHRA are persisting. There is still some mid level
lift too, but the lack of instability as seen thru 7h-5h LRs of
5.5 C/KM is precluding deeper convection. Referenced lift will
persist and passing -SHRA will remain in the forecast across most
of the area through 18Z or so. Radar does show better SHRA/embedded
isold TSRA SE of Terrell Co and they are moving NW. As such
moderate-heavy SHRA/TSRA will be possible across the Lower Trans
Pecos this morning. Highest PoPs (sct-likely) will be oriented
along the mtns extending SE into the Lower Trans Pecos. Surface
MSLP gradient will be tightest S of the Pecos River where breezy
to briefly windy conditions are possible today. Farther N gusty
winds this morning will give way to decreasing winds later in the
afternoon. 85h winds are still increasing and high winds have
recently started thru GDP Pass and thus the warning will remain
in effect. Even though clouds will lift some thru the day
(especially N of I-20) they will mostly remain and with surface
high pressure today`s high temperatures will remain well below
normal, mostly in the 60s, but 50s across parts of the Trans
Pecos. A few -SHRA may continue Mon night/Tue AM across the Trans
Pecos, dry elsewhere. Clouds will be slow to dissipate on Tue
with high temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer, still well below normal.
Mid level ridging will increase Wed and temperatures will increase
closer to normal, highs mostly N80 and moreso Thur/Fri. Increased
westerly flow aloft next weekend will aid in lee trof/thermal ridge
development supporting the continuation of a warming trend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  53  75  55 /  30  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       64  54  72  55 /  30  10  10  10
Dryden                         67  57  72  60 /  80  50  20  10
Fort Stockton                  59  53  70  57 /  70  40  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 54  48  65  54 /  50  20  20  10
Hobbs                          67  53  73  54 /  30  10  10   0
Marfa                          57  51  66  53 /  60  50  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           67  55  74  55 /  30  10  10   0
Odessa                         66  55  74  55 /  30  10  10   0
Wink                           65  55  74  57 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning until noon MDT today for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
443
FXUS64 KMAF 260537
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1237 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR/IFR ceilings are affecting all but CNM and HOB at issuance,
though slow and gradual improvement to VFR is expected overnight
for INK, PEQ, and MAF. FST will likely see lower ceilings through
Monday morning, with improvement to VFR around 18Z. Breezy
N/NE winds will continue, though speeds should decrease after
18Z. Otherwise, a few showers could affect area terminals through
Monday morning, though have only included TEMPO mention at MAF
with MVFR visibility the first few hours of the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1149 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Have sent a late evening update to cancel the watch and lower PoPs.
There is good indications of divergence (4h streamlines) and
moisture in place, but instability lacking. MCS to the SE will
tend to preclude concerns for development farther NW. As such we
have lowered PoPs to chance in most areas, except small area of
likely across the far S. Also have decreased the winds some using
latest data. Updates are out. Winds are a little slow coming up
thru GDP but are trending up for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     61  52  70  54 /  30  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       61  53  68  55 /  30  30  10  10
Dryden                         68  57  70  60 /  60  60  30  10
Fort Stockton                  61  52  67  57 /  50  40  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 52  45  61  53 /  60  30  10  10
Hobbs                          60  51  69  52 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                          59  50  65  54 /  50  40  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           61  52  70  54 /  30  10  10  10
Odessa                         60  53  70  54 /  30  10  10  10
Wink                           61  53  69  56 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning until noon MDT Monday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
475
FXUS64 KMAF 252338
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
638 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
A front pushed through the area today leaving a gusty NE wind in
its wake... expect speeds to decrease during the evening. Showers
and thunderstorms will continue across the area through the
overnight period. Low clouds are possible through mid morning
with mainly MVFR cigs but some local IFR conditions expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 205 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Despite rainfall being slow to develop over the forecast area,
the potential for heavy rainfall still exists.  However, will
trim the western counties from the Watch, and leave the eastern
most counties in effect through tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms have filled in a little over the forecast
area this afternoon, especially a cold front moving south into
the region.  So far, portions of southern Pecos county, Upton,
Reagan, Glasscock and Mitchell counties have seen the heaviest
rainfall since last night as the axis of heaviest precipitation
has been mainly east of the forecast area.  The cutoff low
continues to swirl over the Mexican state of Sonora, with good
difluent flow aloft over the region to the east of this feature.
The trend in operational models is for the upper low to retrograde
farther southwestward through tonight, before translating north
into the Great Basin Wednesday ahead of a deepening upper trough.

Think numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop
over the forecast area as the cold front pushes south through the
region this afternoon and tonight.  PWATs are still near 1.75 inches
over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, or near climatological
record levels for 25 September.  Severe storms look unlikely due
to a very moist column and modest instability, but heavy rainfall
could still occur, especially over the eastern most zones this
afternoon/evening where the best lift is indicated, and enough
instability present to support higher rainfall rates.  Still
think 2-4 inch amounts could occur in these areas, hence the Flash
Flood Watch remaining in effect for Scurry, Mitchell, Glasscock,
Upton, Reagan, Pecos, Terrell and Brewster counties.

Over the rest of the forecast area, there could still be heavy
rainfall, but it appears it will be much more spotty, and something
which can be covered with Areal Flood Advisories instead.  Therefore,
have decided to trim Gaines, Dawson, Borden, Andrews, Martin,
Howard, Winkler, Ector, Midland, Ward and Crane from the Flash
Flood Watch.  Expect low level upslope flow and isentropic
upglide over the front to increase but a more stable atmosphere
will likely keep rainfall rates lower and any higher rainfall
totals will occur over a longer duration.  Lastly, the High Wind
Warning will remain in effect for Guadalupe Pass from this
afternoon through Monday morning.  Model guidance has toned down
the outlandish wind speeds displayed there prior, and have also
lowered near Wind Advisory northeast winds (30-40 mph) over the
Permian Basin tonight too.

Rain chances will continue on Monday, and if all of the above comes
about, the Flash Flood Watch may have to be extended, especially
for the Lower Trans Pecos.  Will forego extension of the Watch at
this time so as to see how much actually falls in these areas
before committing to an extension.  High temperatures will be
well below normal along and south of Interstate 20, and over the
higher terrain of SE NM and west Texas Monday. Locations further
north and east could see a bit more sun, so they won`t be quite as
cool.  A drying and warming trend will set in Tuesday and
Wednesday, with readings expected to be near normal into next
weekend.  There could be an uptick in rain chances Thursday/
Friday, but lack of agreement will prevent addition of chance
PoPs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     54  61  52  70 /  60  30  10  10
Carlsbad                       56  61  53  68 /  30  30  30  10
Dryden                         63  68  57  70 /  60  60  60  30
Fort Stockton                  57  61  52  67 /  60  50  40  10
Guadalupe Pass                 48  52  45  61 /  60  60  30  10
Hobbs                          54  60  51  69 /  20  20  10  10
Marfa                          55  59  50  65 /  50  50  40  20
Midland Intl Airport           56  61  52  70 /  60  30  10  10
Odessa                         55  60  53  70 /  60  30  10  10
Wink                           58  61  53  69 /  30  40  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Big Bend Area-
     Glasscock-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton.

     High Wind Warning until noon MDT Monday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
157
FXUS64 KMAF 251744
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1244 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms are possible across the area for the
next 24 hours with MAF and FST having the best chances. Winds will
remain mostly out of the northeast with winds getting elevated and
gusty later this afternoon. Gusts will likely diminish sometime
this evening.  Low ceilings will be possible at most terminals
through tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1015 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

UPDATE...

Update to lower PoPs this morning and adjust high temperatures.

DISCUSSION...

Have adjusted PoPs downward over most of the forecast area for the
rest of the morning, as a large area of convection to the southeast
of the Lower Trans Pecos has effectively cutoff moist low level
inflow into West Texas.  Expect the complex of storms to the
southeast to become a little less pronounced this afternoon, and
with isentropic upglide over southward moving cold front, showers
and thunderstorms are still expected to develop over the area.  The
threat for heavy rainfall continues over the eastern half of the
forecast area, so will leave the Flash Flood Watch in effect.
Adjusted high temperatures downward over the Lower Trans Pecos, but
raised highs over much of the rest of the area.  An update will
follow shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

Radar is showing a large axis of precip from OK extending sw into
the Concho Valley/E PB. Precip is co-located within rich mid level
theta-e ridge axis (~ +2 standard deviations). Meanwhile a cold
front is located from near ATS-near AMA and points newd with drier
air noted in wake of the boundary. Water vapor shows upper low
INVOF SW NM which is forecast to deepen and back the mid level
flow, once the flow starts to back precip will start to redevelop
farther w. A key feature is the 7h low and assocd sharp trof that
will extend ne across the Lower Trans Pecos and PB after 12Z. WAA
and isentropic lift all around 7h will increase sharply and lift
seen on isentropic surfaces 310-315K will increase resulting in
the expansion of precip coverage. Most likely precip will remain
confined within the current watch area, but could reach into parts
of SE NM after 18Z. The cold front will apparently have the best
push across SE NM into the Upper Trans Pecos this AM, but it will
still be a focus for development across the PB. The prolonged
presence of large scale lift and abundance of moisture certainly
does keep concerns high wrt very heavy rain/flash flooding. Cold
front and mstr transport along the front does support precip into
the Sunday night and possibly Monday, but still the PB and Lower
Trans Pecos are the favored areas with increasing upper divergence
as upper low retrogrades into Mon AM. We plan no changes to the
flash flood watch with this issuance. Storm total precip of 4-6
inches are possible across parts of the PB and Lower Trans Pecos.
Precip chances will start to wane by Mon night, especially Tue.
Temperatures will be well below normal Today thru Tue. NE winds
increase mostly after 18Z today and remain up (windy) thru at
least mid morning Mon so there will be a definite cool feel in the
air. The high wind warning for GDP Pass still looks good and we
made no changes. High temperatures will be back in the 80s by Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  54  61  52 /  90  90  70  20
Carlsbad                       69  56  61  53 /  50  70  60  20
Dryden                         73  63  68  57 / 100 100  80  50
Fort Stockton                  71  57  61  52 /  90 100  80  40
Guadalupe Pass                 64  48  52  45 /  50  70  40  30
Hobbs                          68  54  60  51 /  60  60  50  20
Marfa                          67  55  59  50 /  70  60  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           75  56  61  52 /  90  90  70  20
Odessa                         75  55  60  53 /  90  90  70  20
Wink                           75  58  61  53 /  90  90  70  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Andrews-Big Bend
     Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-
     Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to noon MDT Monday
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
649
FXUS64 KMAF 251744
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1244 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms are possible across the area for the
next 24 hours with MAF and FST having the best chances. Winds will
remain mostly out of the northeast with winds getting elevated and
gusty later this afternoon. Gusts will likely diminish sometime
this evening.  Low ceilings will be possible at most terminals
through tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1015 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

UPDATE...

Update to lower PoPs this morning and adjust high temperatures.

DISCUSSION...

Have adjusted PoPs downward over most of the forecast area for the
rest of the morning, as a large area of convection to the southeast
of the Lower Trans Pecos has effectively cutoff moist low level
inflow into West Texas.  Expect the complex of storms to the
southeast to become a little less pronounced this afternoon, and
with isentropic upglide over southward moving cold front, showers
and thunderstorms are still expected to develop over the area.  The
threat for heavy rainfall continues over the eastern half of the
forecast area, so will leave the Flash Flood Watch in effect.
Adjusted high temperatures downward over the Lower Trans Pecos, but
raised highs over much of the rest of the area.  An update will
follow shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

Radar is showing a large axis of precip from OK extending sw into
the Concho Valley/E PB. Precip is co-located within rich mid level
theta-e ridge axis (~ +2 standard deviations). Meanwhile a cold
front is located from near ATS-near AMA and points newd with drier
air noted in wake of the boundary. Water vapor shows upper low
INVOF SW NM which is forecast to deepen and back the mid level
flow, once the flow starts to back precip will start to redevelop
farther w. A key feature is the 7h low and assocd sharp trof that
will extend ne across the Lower Trans Pecos and PB after 12Z. WAA
and isentropic lift all around 7h will increase sharply and lift
seen on isentropic surfaces 310-315K will increase resulting in
the expansion of precip coverage. Most likely precip will remain
confined within the current watch area, but could reach into parts
of SE NM after 18Z. The cold front will apparently have the best
push across SE NM into the Upper Trans Pecos this AM, but it will
still be a focus for development across the PB. The prolonged
presence of large scale lift and abundance of moisture certainly
does keep concerns high wrt very heavy rain/flash flooding. Cold
front and mstr transport along the front does support precip into
the Sunday night and possibly Monday, but still the PB and Lower
Trans Pecos are the favored areas with increasing upper divergence
as upper low retrogrades into Mon AM. We plan no changes to the
flash flood watch with this issuance. Storm total precip of 4-6
inches are possible across parts of the PB and Lower Trans Pecos.
Precip chances will start to wane by Mon night, especially Tue.
Temperatures will be well below normal Today thru Tue. NE winds
increase mostly after 18Z today and remain up (windy) thru at
least mid morning Mon so there will be a definite cool feel in the
air. The high wind warning for GDP Pass still looks good and we
made no changes. High temperatures will be back in the 80s by Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  54  61  52 /  90  90  70  20
Carlsbad                       69  56  61  53 /  50  70  60  20
Dryden                         73  63  68  57 / 100 100  80  50
Fort Stockton                  71  57  61  52 /  90 100  80  40
Guadalupe Pass                 64  48  52  45 /  50  70  40  30
Hobbs                          68  54  60  51 /  60  60  50  20
Marfa                          67  55  59  50 /  70  60  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           75  56  61  52 /  90  90  70  20
Odessa                         75  55  60  53 /  90  90  70  20
Wink                           75  58  61  53 /  90  90  70  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Andrews-Big Bend
     Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-
     Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to noon MDT Monday
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
086
FXUS64 KMAF 251744
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1244 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms are possible across the area for the
next 24 hours with MAF and FST having the best chances. Winds will
remain mostly out of the northeast with winds getting elevated and
gusty later this afternoon. Gusts will likely diminish sometime
this evening.  Low ceilings will be possible at most terminals
through tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1015 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

UPDATE...

Update to lower PoPs this morning and adjust high temperatures.

DISCUSSION...

Have adjusted PoPs downward over most of the forecast area for the
rest of the morning, as a large area of convection to the southeast
of the Lower Trans Pecos has effectively cutoff moist low level
inflow into West Texas.  Expect the complex of storms to the
southeast to become a little less pronounced this afternoon, and
with isentropic upglide over southward moving cold front, showers
and thunderstorms are still expected to develop over the area.  The
threat for heavy rainfall continues over the eastern half of the
forecast area, so will leave the Flash Flood Watch in effect.
Adjusted high temperatures downward over the Lower Trans Pecos, but
raised highs over much of the rest of the area.  An update will
follow shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

Radar is showing a large axis of precip from OK extending sw into
the Concho Valley/E PB. Precip is co-located within rich mid level
theta-e ridge axis (~ +2 standard deviations). Meanwhile a cold
front is located from near ATS-near AMA and points newd with drier
air noted in wake of the boundary. Water vapor shows upper low
INVOF SW NM which is forecast to deepen and back the mid level
flow, once the flow starts to back precip will start to redevelop
farther w. A key feature is the 7h low and assocd sharp trof that
will extend ne across the Lower Trans Pecos and PB after 12Z. WAA
and isentropic lift all around 7h will increase sharply and lift
seen on isentropic surfaces 310-315K will increase resulting in
the expansion of precip coverage. Most likely precip will remain
confined within the current watch area, but could reach into parts
of SE NM after 18Z. The cold front will apparently have the best
push across SE NM into the Upper Trans Pecos this AM, but it will
still be a focus for development across the PB. The prolonged
presence of large scale lift and abundance of moisture certainly
does keep concerns high wrt very heavy rain/flash flooding. Cold
front and mstr transport along the front does support precip into
the Sunday night and possibly Monday, but still the PB and Lower
Trans Pecos are the favored areas with increasing upper divergence
as upper low retrogrades into Mon AM. We plan no changes to the
flash flood watch with this issuance. Storm total precip of 4-6
inches are possible across parts of the PB and Lower Trans Pecos.
Precip chances will start to wane by Mon night, especially Tue.
Temperatures will be well below normal Today thru Tue. NE winds
increase mostly after 18Z today and remain up (windy) thru at
least mid morning Mon so there will be a definite cool feel in the
air. The high wind warning for GDP Pass still looks good and we
made no changes. High temperatures will be back in the 80s by Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  54  61  52 /  90  90  70  20
Carlsbad                       69  56  61  53 /  50  70  60  20
Dryden                         73  63  68  57 / 100 100  80  50
Fort Stockton                  71  57  61  52 /  90 100  80  40
Guadalupe Pass                 64  48  52  45 /  50  70  40  30
Hobbs                          68  54  60  51 /  60  60  50  20
Marfa                          67  55  59  50 /  70  60  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           75  56  61  52 /  90  90  70  20
Odessa                         75  55  60  53 /  90  90  70  20
Wink                           75  58  61  53 /  90  90  70  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Andrews-Big Bend
     Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-
     Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to noon MDT Monday
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
419
FXUS64 KMAF 251515
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1015 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.UPDATE...

Update to lower PoPs this morning and adjust high temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Have adjusted PoPs downward over most of the forecast area for the
rest of the morning, as a large area of convection to the southeast
of the Lower Trans Pecos has effectively cutoff moist low level
inflow into West Texas.  Expect the complex of storms to the
southeast to become a little less pronounced this afternoon, and
with isentropic upglide over southward moving cold front, showers
and thunderstorms are still expected to develop over the area.  The
threat for heavy rainfall continues over the eastern half of the
forecast area, so will leave the Flash Flood Watch in effect.
Adjusted high temperatures downward over the Lower Trans Pecos, but
raised highs over much of the rest of the area.  An update will
follow shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

VFR conditions prevail across the area this morning, with an axis
of showers/thunderstorms to the east of area terminals. Storms are
expected to develop westward this morning, with brief MVFR
conditions in heavy rain possible. A cold front will move through
the area late morning/early afternoon, resulting in widespread
storm development with MVFR and potentially IFR conditions in
heavy rain at area terminals. Winds behind the front will back to
the N/NE with gusts up to 25-35KT, with little if any improvement
expected through 26/12Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

Radar is showing a large axis of precip from OK extending sw into
the Concho Valley/E PB. Precip is co-located within rich mid level
theta-e ridge axis (~ +2 standard deviations). Meanwhile a cold
front is located from near ATS-near AMA and points newd with drier
air noted in wake of the boundary. Water vapor shows upper low
INVOF SW NM which is forecast to deepen and back the mid level
flow, once the flow starts to back precip will start to redevelop
farther w. A key feature is the 7h low and assocd sharp trof that
will extend ne across the Lower Trans Pecos and PB after 12Z. WAA
and isentropic lift all around 7h will increase sharply and lift
seen on isentropic surfaces 310-315K will increase resulting in
the expansion of precip coverage. Most likely precip will remain
confined within the current watch area, but could reach into parts
of SE NM after 18Z. The cold front will apparently have the best
push across SE NM into the Upper Trans Pecos this AM, but it will
still be a focus for development across the PB. The prolonged
presence of large scale lift and abundance of moisture certainly
does keep concerns high wrt very heavy rain/flash flooding. Cold
front and mstr transport along the front does support precip into
the Sunday night and possibly Monday, but still the PB and Lower
Trans Pecos are the favored areas with increasing upper divergence
as upper low retrogrades into Mon AM. We plan no changes to the
flash flood watch with this issuance. Storm total precip of 4-6
inches are possible across parts of the PB and Lower Trans Pecos.
Precip chances will start to wane by Mon night, especially Tue.
Temperatures will be well below normal Today thru Tue. NE winds
increase mostly after 18Z today and remain up (windy) thru at
least mid morning Mon so there will be a definite cool feel in the
air. The high wind warning for GDP Pass still looks good and we
made no changes. High temperatures will be back in the 80s by Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  54  61  52 /  90  90  70  20
Carlsbad                       69  56  61  53 /  50  70  60  20
Dryden                         73  63  68  57 / 100 100  80  50
Fort Stockton                  71  57  61  52 /  90 100  80  40
Guadalupe Pass                 64  48  52  45 /  50  70  40  30
Hobbs                          68  54  60  51 /  60  60  50  20
Marfa                          67  55  59  50 /  70  60  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           75  56  61  52 /  90  90  70  20
Odessa                         75  55  60  53 /  90  90  70  20
Wink                           75  58  61  53 /  90  90  70  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Andrews-Big Bend
     Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-
     Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to noon MDT Monday
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
727
FXUS64 KMAF 251130
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
630 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail across the area this morning, with an axis
of showers/thunderstorms to the east of area terminals. Storms are
expected to develop westward this morning, with brief MVFR
conditions in heavy rain possible. A cold front will move through
the area late morning/early afternoon, resulting in widespread
storm development with MVFR and potentially IFR conditions in
heavy rain at area terminals. Winds behind the front will back to
the N/NE with gusts up to 25-35KT, with little if any improvement
expected through 26/12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Radar is showing a large axis of precip from OK extending sw into
the Concho Valley/E PB. Precip is co-located within rich mid level
theta-e ridge axis (~ +2 standard deviations). Meanwhile a cold
front is located from near ATS-near AMA and points newd with drier
air noted in wake of the boundary. Water vapor shows upper low
INVOF SW NM which is forecast to deepen and back the mid level
flow, once the flow starts to back precip will start to redevelop
farther w. A key feature is the 7h low and assocd sharp trof that
will extend ne across the Lower Trans Pecos and PB after 12Z. WAA
and isentropic lift all around 7h will increase sharply and lift
seen on isentropic surfaces 310-315K will increase resulting in
the expansion of precip coverage. Most likely precip will remain
confined within the current watch area, but could reach into parts
of SE NM after 18Z. The cold front will apparently have the best
push across SE NM into the Upper Trans Pecos this AM, but it will
still be a focus for development across the PB. The prolonged
presence of large scale lift and abundance of moisture certainly
does keep concerns high wrt very heavy rain/flash flooding. Cold
front and mstr transport along the front does support precip into
the Sunday night and possibly Monday, but still the PB and Lower
Trans Pecos are the favored areas with increasing upper divergence
as upper low retrogrades into Mon AM. We plan no changes to the
flash flood watch with this issuance. Storm total precip of 4-6
inches are possible across parts of the PB and Lower Trans Pecos.
Precip chances will start to wane by Mon night, especially Tue.
Temperatures will be well below normal Today thru Tue. NE winds
increase mostly after 18Z today and remain up (windy) thru at
least mid morning Mon so there will be a definite cool feel in the
air. The high wind warning for GDP Pass still looks good and we
made no changes. High temperatures will be back in the 80s by Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  54  61  52 /  90  90  70  20
Carlsbad                       68  56  61  53 /  50  70  60  20
Dryden                         77  63  68  57 / 100 100  80  50
Fort Stockton                  70  57  61  52 / 100 100  80  40
Guadalupe Pass                 64  48  52  45 /  50  70  40  30
Hobbs                          66  54  60  51 /  60  60  50  20
Marfa                          67  55  59  50 /  70  60  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           72  56  61  52 /  90  90  70  20
Odessa                         75  55  60  53 /  90  90  70  20
Wink                           75  58  61  53 /  90  90  70  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Andrews-Big Bend
     Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-
     Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to noon MDT Monday
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
626
FXUS64 KMAF 250556
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1256 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing just east of area terminals at
issuance. Thunderstorms could affect INK, MAF, and FST early in
the period, with gusty wind and MVFR visibility in heavy rain
possible. Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
Sunday morning across TX terminals, gradually developing westward
to affect HOB and CNM. A cold front will begin to move through the
area late Sunday morning, accompanied by a north/northeast wind
shift with gusts to 30-35kt possible. Prevailing MVFR conditions
in heavy rain are expected thereafter, with IFR conditions
possible, especially during the afternoon/evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 155 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas appear set for heavy rainfall
event starting tonight and lasting into Monday, in addition to much
cooler temperatures.  A potent shortwave trough is currently
ejecting northeastward into the northern U.S. Plains early this
afternoon.  Surface frontogenesis will occur in the wake of this
upper trough and send a cold front southward in the lee of the
Rockies.  The front looks to move into the forecast area Sunday
afternoon with much cooler temperatures behind it.  A shortwave
trough will drop south into the base of the longwave trough over the
western CONUS and form a cutoff low over northern New Mexico by
25/12Z.  This will set the stage for widespread rainfall over the
forecast area starting tonight, and lasting into Monday morning.

A surface trough bisected West Texas from north to south this
afternoon.  A few showers and thunderstorms have already developed
on it so far, but expect more to form through max heating as lift
increases ahead of a shortwave trough translating over New Mexico
ahead of the large upper trough to the west.  Mid level support will
be enhanced further by the entrance region of a 80kt h25 jet over
New Mexico, with thunderstorms flourishing along and east of the
surface trough tonight, especially as an h85 LLJ strengthens over
the Permian Basin, provides moist inflow and destabilizes the
atmosphere.  Instability will top out around 1200-1500 J/Kg this
afternoon/early evening, but mid level lapse rates will be near
moist adiabatic and 0 to 6Km Bulk Shear will be 25 to 30kt at best.
Therefore, some of these storms could be strong, with a couple of
severe storms not out of the question.  Strong winds, hail, heavy
rainfall and frequent lightning strikes will be the main threats.

Moisture will continue to increase over the area tonight as height
falls to the east of the cutoff low backs/increases low level winds.
PWATS will rise to around 1.50 west Sunday afternoon to 1.75 east,
the latter being 2 S.D. above normal, and a record amount of
moisture climatologically for 25 September.  Large scale lift will
also increase over the area tonight/Sunday as the flow aloft becomes
more difluent, a series of shortwave troughs translate northward
around the eastern periphery of the upper low, upper lift is
enhanced by the presence of the RRQ of the h25 jet still over New
Mexico, and isentropic upglide increases along and behind the cold
front Sunday afternoon.  Unidirectional flow aloft over the region
could result in thunderstorms training over the same areas.
Considering some locations could see 3-5 inches of rainfall, will
continue the current Flash Flood Watch.  However, some models
retrograde the upper low Sunday which shifts the emphasis for heavy
rainfall farther west.  Will hold off issuing a Flash Flood Watch
farther west though and wait to see whether trends hold on later
model runs.  The heavy rainfall could also result in river flooding
along the Colorado and Rio Grande starting tonight and lasting into
Monday, if not a little beyond.  The threat of heavy rainfall will
persist Monday morning, but will leave the ending time of the Flash
Flood Watch at 26/12Z Monday for now.  The only other threat during
the next couple of days will be strong winds through Guadalupe Pass
behind the front. Mos guidance numbers look absurd with 80kt
sustained Sunday night, but 35 to 50kt appears to be within the
realm of possibility. Therefore, will upgrade the High Wind Watch to
a High Wind Warning running from 300 pm MDT Sunday to Noon MDT
Monday.

The cutoff low is expected to retrograde to southern California by
Tuesday afternoon, and then translates northeastward ahead of
another forming upper trough off the western CONUS.  So good rain
chances will persist Monday, which appears to be the coolest day
upcoming, with a weak upper ridge over the region thereafter
decreasing rain chances.  Temperatures will remain below normal
Tuesday and Wednesday, then rise closer to normal Thursday through
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     55  59  51  71 /  80  70  20  10
Carlsbad                       55  60  52  68 /  80  60  20  10
Dryden                         66  67  56  70 /  90  70  50  30
Fort Stockton                  60  60  52  66 /  90  70  40  30
Guadalupe Pass                 48  51  45  60 /  90  60  30  20
Hobbs                          51  58  49  69 /  70  50  20  10
Marfa                          52  60  45  63 /  70  60  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           56  60  51  71 /  90  70  20  10
Odessa                         55  59  51  70 /  90  70  20  10
Wink                           60  60  52  70 /  90  70  30  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Andrews-Big Bend
     Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-
     Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM Sunday to noon MDT Monday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
829
FXUS64 KMAF 242310
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and
southeast New Mexico terminals tonight. However, a strong upper
level disturbance is expected to generate scattered thunderstorms
overnight across mainly west Texas. Will place tempo groups for
MVFR visibility in thunderstorms at the west Texas terminals.
By early to mid Sunday morning a cold front will result in a wind
shift to the north and northeast with prevailing MVFR conditions
in thunderstorms expected at the west Texas and majority of
southeast New Mexico terminals.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 155 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas appear set for heavy rainfall
event starting tonight and lasting into Monday, in addition to much
cooler temperatures.  A potent shortwave trough is currently
ejecting northeastward into the northern U.S. Plains early this
afternoon.  Surface frontogenesis will occur in the wake of this
upper trough and send a cold front southward in the lee of the
Rockies.  The front looks to move into the forecast area Sunday
afternoon with much cooler temperatures behind it.  A shortwave
trough will drop south into the base of the longwave trough over the
western CONUS and form a cutoff low over northern New Mexico by
25/12Z.  This will set the stage for widespread rainfall over the
forecast area starting tonight, and lasting into Monday morning.

A surface trough bisected West Texas from north to south this
afternoon.  A few showers and thunderstorms have already developed
on it so far, but expect more to form through max heating as lift
increases ahead of a shortwave trough translating over New Mexico
ahead of the large upper trough to the west.  Mid level support will
be enhanced further by the entrance region of a 80kt h25 jet over
New Mexico, with thunderstorms flourishing along and east of the
surface trough tonight, especially as an h85 LLJ strengthens over
the Permian Basin, provides moist inflow and destabilizes the
atmosphere.  Instability will top out around 1200-1500 J/Kg this
afternoon/early evening, but mid level lapse rates will be near
moist adiabatic and 0 to 6Km Bulk Shear will be 25 to 30kt at best.
Therefore, some of these storms could be strong, with a couple of
severe storms not out of the question.  Strong winds, hail, heavy
rainfall and frequent lightning strikes will be the main threats.

Moisture will continue to increase over the area tonight as height
falls to the east of the cutoff low backs/increases low level winds.
PWATS will rise to around 1.50 west Sunday afternoon to 1.75 east,
the latter being 2 S.D. above normal, and a record amount of
moisture climatologically for 25 September.  Large scale lift will
also increase over the area tonight/Sunday as the flow aloft becomes
more difluent, a series of shortwave troughs translate northward
around the eastern periphery of the upper low, upper lift is
enhanced by the presence of the RRQ of the h25 jet still over New
Mexico, and isentropic upglide increases along and behind the cold
front Sunday afternoon.  Unidirectional flow aloft over the region
could result in thunderstorms training over the same areas.
Considering some locations could see 3-5 inches of rainfall, will
continue the current Flash Flood Watch.  However, some models
retrograde the upper low Sunday which shifts the emphasis for heavy
rainfall farther west.  Will hold off issuing a Flash Flood Watch
farther west though and wait to see whether trends hold on later
model runs.  The heavy rainfall could also result in river flooding
along the Colorado and Rio Grande starting tonight and lasting into
Monday, if not a little beyond.  The threat of heavy rainfall will
persist Monday morning, but will leave the ending time of the Flash
Flood Watch at 26/12Z Monday for now.  The only other threat during
the next couple of days will be strong winds through Guadalupe Pass
behind the front. Mos guidance numbers look absurd with 80kt
sustained Sunday night, but 35 to 50kt appears to be within the
realm of possibility. Therefore, will upgrade the High Wind Watch to
a High Wind Warning running from 300 pm MDT Sunday to Noon MDT
Monday.

The cutoff low is expected to retrograde to southern California by
Tuesday afternoon, and then translates northeastward ahead of
another forming upper trough off the western CONUS.  So good rain
chances will persist Monday, which appears to be the coolest day
upcoming, with a weak upper ridge over the region thereafter
decreasing rain chances.  Temperatures will remain below normal
Tuesday and Wednesday, then rise closer to normal Thursday through
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  73  55  59 /  80  90  80  70
Carlsbad                       64  71  55  60 /  20  90  80  60
Dryden                         73  78  66  67 /  70 100  90  70
Fort Stockton                  70  72  60  60 /  70 100  90  70
Guadalupe Pass                 62  64  48  51 /  20  90  90  60
Hobbs                          64  69  51  58 /  30  80  70  50
Marfa                          62  69  52  60 /  60  90  70  60
Midland Intl Airport           69  73  56  60 /  70 100  90  70
Odessa                         68  73  55  59 /  70 100  90  70
Wink                           70  75  60  58 /  50 100  90  70

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Andrews-Big Bend
     Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-
     Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM Sunday to noon MDT Monday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

80/67
876
FXUS64 KMAF 241735
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1235 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. Chances of convection increase this evening into
tonight and then especially Sunday morning into the afternoon
hours. Low ceilings are expected to start developing around 12z
then become more widespread by 18z. Winds will mostly be light out
of the south except at MAF and FST where elevated winds are
possible this afternoon and evening.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

While thunderstorm chances will begin to increase across the area
this afternoon, the main focus will be the potential for
widespread heavy rain and flash flooding tonight through Monday
morning, and the arrival of much cooler, well below normal
temperatures by the end of the weekend into early next week.

Per water vapor imagery, the upper ridge that has dominated the
past several days has shifted eastward, with a plume of
subtropical moisture advecting over the region in increasing
southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a potent upper trough. As the
trough begins to transition into a closed low that will lift
northeastward into the Northern Plains today, and another low
progged to develop and settle just south of the US/Mexico border
in Chihuahua on Sunday, the region will be under the right
entrance region of a 300mb jet rounding the base of the elongated
trough. As height falls overspread the region, increasing moisture
and upper support will yield increasing storm chances today over
far southeast New Mexico and the northwest Permian Basin
southwestward to the Big Bend Area and points east. Some storms
this afternoon could become strong to marginally severe, with
gusty winds over 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall the primary
threats. Small hail, and frequent lightning could also accompany
storms that develop. Temperatures today will be a bit cooler than
yesterday due to increasing moisture and cloud cover, though still
above normal. However, it looks to be our last day of above normal
temperatures for awhile.

Moisture will continue to increase over the area tonight as the
low cuts off at the base of the elongated trough and enhances
moist upslope flow over the region. Precipitable water values will
increase to nearly 1.75 inches across the Permian Basin, Lower
Trans Pecos, and Big Bend Area by Sunday morning, roughly 2
standard deviations above normal, and could potentially be a new
record high precipitable water amount for September 25th. Showers
and thunderstorms will increase in coverage areawide overnight due
to continued upper support from the trough as well as the 300mb
jet, with the best chance for storms across the eastern half of
the forecast area. Given the anomalously high precipitable water
values, heavy rainfall is a significant concern with storms that
develop, as slow moving, training storms will be possible.
Widespread thunderstorms with heavy rain will continue on Sunday,
with additional support from a strong cold front that will move
south through the region during the day. Despite the strong front,
severe weather is not anticipated, as model soundings are largely
moist adiabatic and lapse rates drop with the passage of the
front. However, the heavy rain threat will continue, and persist
into Sunday night, as continued upslope flow and isentropic
upglide will act facilitate continued storm development. Rainfall
totals of 3 to 5 inches through Monday morning are not unlikely
across the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Big Bend Area.
Thus, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued from this evening
through Monday morning. This watch may need to be expanded
westward to include the Upper Trans Pecos and Southeast New
Mexico, as heavy rain chances look to develop westward on Sunday,
but will leave this to later shifts to decide.

Sunday will be significantly cooler due to the combination of cold
air advection behind the front, diabatic cooling, and cloud
cover, with highs potentially 15 degrees cooler than today, and
nearly 10 degrees below normal. In the wake of the front, winds
will become gusty out of the northeast, with the strongest winds
of 45 to 55 MPH sustained expected through Guadalupe Pass. A High
Wind Watch has been issued for that area from Sunday afternoon
through Monday morning, please see the Watch product for details.

Cold advection behind the front will continue into Monday, with
high temperatures expected to only range from the middle 50s to
middle 60s for all but the Rio Grande Valley, where middle 70s are
possible. While rain chances will continue into Monday, the heavy
rain threat will diminish, with precipitation chances further
decreasing from north to south on Tuesday. The well below normal
temperatures will stick around through midweek next week, with a
gradual warming trend expected to end the week, with temperatures
returning to near normal values by Thursday/Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     88  68  72  54 /  60  80  90  80
Carlsbad                       85  62  70  55 /  10  20  60  50
Dryden                         89  71  77  66 /  30  70  90  70
Fort Stockton                  89  67  74  60 /  40  70  90  80
Guadalupe Pass                 78  60  64  48 /  10  20  60  60
Hobbs                          83  61  69  55 /  30  30  70  50
Marfa                          83  59  69  53 /  50  60  80  50
Midland Intl Airport           87  66  72  55 /  50  70  90  80
Odessa                         86  66  72  54 /  50  70  90  70
Wink                           90  67  73  60 /  30  50  80  70

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
882
FXUS64 KMAF 241735
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1235 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. Chances of convection increase this evening into
tonight and then especially Sunday morning into the afternoon
hours. Low ceilings are expected to start developing around 12z
then become more widespread by 18z. Winds will mostly be light out
of the south except at MAF and FST where elevated winds are
possible this afternoon and evening.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

While thunderstorm chances will begin to increase across the area
this afternoon, the main focus will be the potential for
widespread heavy rain and flash flooding tonight through Monday
morning, and the arrival of much cooler, well below normal
temperatures by the end of the weekend into early next week.

Per water vapor imagery, the upper ridge that has dominated the
past several days has shifted eastward, with a plume of
subtropical moisture advecting over the region in increasing
southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a potent upper trough. As the
trough begins to transition into a closed low that will lift
northeastward into the Northern Plains today, and another low
progged to develop and settle just south of the US/Mexico border
in Chihuahua on Sunday, the region will be under the right
entrance region of a 300mb jet rounding the base of the elongated
trough. As height falls overspread the region, increasing moisture
and upper support will yield increasing storm chances today over
far southeast New Mexico and the northwest Permian Basin
southwestward to the Big Bend Area and points east. Some storms
this afternoon could become strong to marginally severe, with
gusty winds over 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall the primary
threats. Small hail, and frequent lightning could also accompany
storms that develop. Temperatures today will be a bit cooler than
yesterday due to increasing moisture and cloud cover, though still
above normal. However, it looks to be our last day of above normal
temperatures for awhile.

Moisture will continue to increase over the area tonight as the
low cuts off at the base of the elongated trough and enhances
moist upslope flow over the region. Precipitable water values will
increase to nearly 1.75 inches across the Permian Basin, Lower
Trans Pecos, and Big Bend Area by Sunday morning, roughly 2
standard deviations above normal, and could potentially be a new
record high precipitable water amount for September 25th. Showers
and thunderstorms will increase in coverage areawide overnight due
to continued upper support from the trough as well as the 300mb
jet, with the best chance for storms across the eastern half of
the forecast area. Given the anomalously high precipitable water
values, heavy rainfall is a significant concern with storms that
develop, as slow moving, training storms will be possible.
Widespread thunderstorms with heavy rain will continue on Sunday,
with additional support from a strong cold front that will move
south through the region during the day. Despite the strong front,
severe weather is not anticipated, as model soundings are largely
moist adiabatic and lapse rates drop with the passage of the
front. However, the heavy rain threat will continue, and persist
into Sunday night, as continued upslope flow and isentropic
upglide will act facilitate continued storm development. Rainfall
totals of 3 to 5 inches through Monday morning are not unlikely
across the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Big Bend Area.
Thus, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued from this evening
through Monday morning. This watch may need to be expanded
westward to include the Upper Trans Pecos and Southeast New
Mexico, as heavy rain chances look to develop westward on Sunday,
but will leave this to later shifts to decide.

Sunday will be significantly cooler due to the combination of cold
air advection behind the front, diabatic cooling, and cloud
cover, with highs potentially 15 degrees cooler than today, and
nearly 10 degrees below normal. In the wake of the front, winds
will become gusty out of the northeast, with the strongest winds
of 45 to 55 MPH sustained expected through Guadalupe Pass. A High
Wind Watch has been issued for that area from Sunday afternoon
through Monday morning, please see the Watch product for details.

Cold advection behind the front will continue into Monday, with
high temperatures expected to only range from the middle 50s to
middle 60s for all but the Rio Grande Valley, where middle 70s are
possible. While rain chances will continue into Monday, the heavy
rain threat will diminish, with precipitation chances further
decreasing from north to south on Tuesday. The well below normal
temperatures will stick around through midweek next week, with a
gradual warming trend expected to end the week, with temperatures
returning to near normal values by Thursday/Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     88  68  72  54 /  60  80  90  80
Carlsbad                       85  62  70  55 /  10  20  60  50
Dryden                         89  71  77  66 /  30  70  90  70
Fort Stockton                  89  67  74  60 /  40  70  90  80
Guadalupe Pass                 78  60  64  48 /  10  20  60  60
Hobbs                          83  61  69  55 /  30  30  70  50
Marfa                          83  59  69  53 /  50  60  80  50
Midland Intl Airport           87  66  72  55 /  50  70  90  80
Odessa                         86  66  72  54 /  50  70  90  70
Wink                           90  67  73  60 /  30  50  80  70

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
732
FXUS64 KMAF 241117
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
617 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few -SHRA are in the FST area and the mid cloud deck has
expanded, but is e of CNM. Will continue to keep MVFR CIGS out of
forecast despite a 30-40kt LLJ. Wind will increase around 15Z as
decaying LLJ mixes, especially FST/MAF. Otherwise the more
noticeable wx changes are not expected until near the end of forecast
period. Close enough to include PROB30 at MAF, FST, INK. PEQ and
even prevailing -TSRA starting at 09Z for MAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

While thunderstorm chances will begin to increase across the area
this afternoon, the main focus will be the potential for
widespread heavy rain and flash flooding tonight through Monday
morning, and the arrival of much cooler, well below normal
temperatures by the end of the weekend into early next week.

Per water vapor imagery, the upper ridge that has dominated the
past several days has shifted eastward, with a plume of
subtropical moisture advecting over the region in increasing
southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a potent upper trough. As the
trough begins to transition into a closed low that will lift
northeastward into the Northern Plains today, and another low
progged to develop and settle just south of the US/Mexico border
in Chihuahua on Sunday, the region will be under the right
entrance region of a 300mb jet rounding the base of the elongated
trough. As height falls overspread the region, increasing moisture
and upper support will yield increasing storm chances today over
far southeast New Mexico and the northwest Permian Basin
southwestward to the Big Bend Area and points east. Some storms
this afternoon could become strong to marginally severe, with
gusty winds over 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall the primary
threats. Small hail, and frequent lightning could also accompany
storms that develop. Temperatures today will be a bit cooler than
yesterday due to increasing moisture and cloud cover, though still
above normal. However, it looks to be our last day of above normal
temperatures for awhile.

Moisture will continue to increase over the area tonight as the
low cuts off at the base of the elongated trough and enhances
moist upslope flow over the region. Precipitable water values will
increase to nearly 1.75 inches across the Permian Basin, Lower
Trans Pecos, and Big Bend Area by Sunday morning, roughly 2
standard deviations above normal, and could potentially be a new
record high precipitable water amount for September 25th. Showers
and thunderstorms will increase in coverage areawide overnight due
to continued upper support from the trough as well as the 300mb
jet, with the best chance for storms across the eastern half of
the forecast area. Given the anomalously high precipitable water
values, heavy rainfall is a significant concern with storms that
develop, as slow moving, training storms will be possible.
Widespread thunderstorms with heavy rain will continue on Sunday,
with additional support from a strong cold front that will move
south through the region during the day. Despite the strong front,
severe weather is not anticipated, as model soundings are largely
moist adiabatic and lapse rates drop with the passage of the
front. However, the heavy rain threat will continue, and persist
into Sunday night, as continued upslope flow and isentropic
upglide will act facilitate continued storm development. Rainfall
totals of 3 to 5 inches through Monday morning are not unlikely
across the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Big Bend Area.
Thus, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued from this evening
through Monday morning. This watch may need to be expanded
westward to include the Upper Trans Pecos and Southeast New
Mexico, as heavy rain chances look to develop westward on Sunday,
but will leave this to later shifts to decide.

Sunday will be significantly cooler due to the combination of cold
air advection behind the front, diabatic cooling, and cloud
cover, with highs potentially 15 degrees cooler than today, and
nearly 10 degrees below normal. In the wake of the front, winds
will become gusty out of the northeast, with the strongest winds
of 45 to 55 MPH sustained expected through Guadalupe Pass. A High
Wind Watch has been issued for that area from Sunday afternoon
through Monday morning, please see the Watch product for details.

Cold advection behind the front will continue into Monday, with
high temperatures expected to only range from the middle 50s to
middle 60s for all but the Rio Grande Valley, where middle 70s are
possible. While rain chances will continue into Monday, the heavy
rain threat will diminish, with precipitation chances further
decreasing from north to south on Tuesday. The well below normal
temperatures will stick around through midweek next week, with a
gradual warming trend expected to end the week, with temperatures
returning to near normal values by Thursday/Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     88  68  72  54 /  60  80  90  80
Carlsbad                       85  62  70  55 /  10  20  60  50
Dryden                         89  71  77  66 /  30  70  90  70
Fort Stockton                  89  67  74  60 /  40  70  90  80
Guadalupe Pass                 78  60  64  48 /  10  20  60  60
Hobbs                          83  61  69  55 /  30  30  70  50
Marfa                          83  59  69  53 /  50  60  80  50
Midland Intl Airport           87  66  72  55 /  50  70  90  80
Odessa                         86  66  72  54 /  50  70  90  70
Wink                           90  67  73  60 /  30  50  80  70

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Monday morning for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-
     Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-
     Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
914
FXUS64 KMAF 240532
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1232 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few -SHRA are across the west, mostly dissipating. A mid cloud deck
from SE NM to around Presidio was slowly moving e-ne with clouds mostly
BKN120. For now have kept MVFR CIGS out of forecast and a developing
30-40kt LLJ will keep wind up 10-15kt at most places, especially
FST/MAF. Otherwise the more noticeable wx changes are not expected
until after this forecast period including low CIGS, wind shift
with front and high end PoPs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  69  70  53 /  60  70  90  90
Carlsbad                       87  63  69  58 /  10  20  60  40
Dryden                         92  72  75  64 /  30  70  90  50
Fort Stockton                  90  68  70  58 /  40  60  90  50
Guadalupe Pass                 77  60  62  50 /  10  20  60  60
Hobbs                          84  63  68  54 /  30  30  70  40
Marfa                          83  61  65  57 /  50  50  70  40
Midland Intl Airport           88  68  70  56 /  50  70  90  70
Odessa                         88  67  70  54 /  50  70  90  60
Wink                           91  68  72  58 /  30  40  80  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

  • National Weather Service
  • Southern Region Headquarters
  • 819 Taylor Street, Room 10A06
  • Fort Worth, TX 76102
  • Page Author: NWS Fort Worth
  • Web Master: SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov
  •  
  • Page last modified: 30-Sep-2016 6:36 PM UTC
USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.