Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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173
FXUS64 KMAF 191101
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
601 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings are developing/spreading across west Texas into
southeast New Mexico, so will carry at all TAF sites through at
least 19/15Z.  Expect VFR conditions thereafter, however
thunderstorms will be possible at kCNM, KPEQ, KINK and KHOB.
Since probabilities are so low, will not include at any of these
sites at this time.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014/

Above normal temperatures will return to the forecast area for
the next 7 days as an upper level ridge builds across New Mexico
and west Texas. At the surface a lee trough is forecast to remain
in place across extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico through
early next week. Very intense heating along the surface trough in
the mountains combined with weak disturbances moving south within
the upper ridge should generate mainly afternoon and evening
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains, upper Trans
Pecos and portions of the western Permian Basin most days through
Tuesday.

Beyond next Tuesday went with a dry forecast for now for the
remainder of the extended forecast through next Saturday. Will be
monitoring next Wednesday for a possible frontal passage and
increase chance of precipitation depicted on the ECMWF and CMC, but
confidence was not high for this scenario at this time. For next
Thursday through Saturday the upper ridge is forecast to drift
north across New Mexico with easterly flow aloft in place across
the region. Later shifts will need to monitor for the potential
of isolated storms in the mountains. Temperatures will continue
above normal next Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  73  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              95  72  97  73  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               100  70 102  70  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  99  74 101  75  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  76 100  74  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          92  69  93  68  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   96  69  97  71  /  20  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   90  64  91  63  /  30  30  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    96  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  97  75  99  75  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   100  77 103  77  /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

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