Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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703
FXUS64 KMAF 221000
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
500 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars show earlier convection has all but died out, w/only a
few -shra left in the area. A few low clouds could develop near
KMAF near sunrise, but buffer soundings keep them VFR. Otherwise,
today looks similar to Friday, w/cu bases 4.5-9 kft agl and more
convection possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, a few remaining showers are moving across the area.
Temperatures are staying on the warm side this morning with mostly
cloudy skies overhead. Expect high temperatures today to be in the
upper 90s and triple digits for most of the area. There is an
upper trough over the Northern Plains which is helping to suppress
the upper ridge over the region. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon across mainly the higher
terrain and surrounding plains. Good CAPE values will be across
the area and an area of enhanced omega will be over the higher
terrain, so some of the storms that develop this afternoon and
evening could be strong.

As the upper trough over the Northern Plains moves eastward, it
will send a cold front southward towards the CWA on Sunday.
Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible across the higher
terrain, and storm chances will increase across southeast New
Mexico and the Permian Basin as the front approaches. Temperatures
on Sunday will likely be a few degrees cooler than today. The
front does not appear to be very strong but it will result in
temperatures cooling to around normal values on Monday. Rain
chances will taper off Monday and Monday night as the upper ridge
once again begins to build over the region. Temperatures will warm
up after Monday into the mid to upper 90s across the Permian
Basin. Conditions will be mostly dry mid to late next week with
the upper ridge building over the western half of the conus.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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