Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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523
FXUS64 KMAF 210312
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
912 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Sfc flow will remain
westerly, w/a few high clouds during the day Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 146 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough pushing across TX today with high pressure building in
behind it.  This will provide warm wx for the region.  The next
upper trough will move ashore the West Coast on Wednesday crossing
the Rockies on Thursday and the plains Friday.  After that a flat
ridge will guild across the Southern tier of states through the
weekend.

The passing upper trough wiped the clouds from the area and shoved
them into East TX.  A Leeside trough will set up across the area on
Tuesday... looking at a dry week with low dewpts as a mostly W to NW
wind keeps low level moisture off to the east.  Little expectation
of any rain this week.  Thursday is looking really windy with models
showing a brisk west wind pushing across the area as a surface low
north of the Panhandle drag a trough/Pacific front through the
region.  A weak back door front moves into the area Friday
night/Saturday morning but not much cooling with it.

With the return of sunshine warmer temps have returned. Temperatures
will increase through the week with highs in the mid to upper. 70s
tomorrow... increasing to near record highs Wednesday in the mid
80s.  A few degrees cooler Thursday with windy conditions which will
create fire wx concerns.

FIRE WEATHER...
Much above normal high temperatures and dry conditions will increase
fire weather concerns most days through Thursday. For late this
afternoon, portions of the southeast New Mexico plains and northwest
Permian Basin will have minimum rh/s around 15 percent with near
critical fire weather conditions expected as northwest to north
winds rise to 15-25 mph. Will continue the Fire Danger Statement for
these areas this afternoon. Winds should decrease by sunset with
generally fair overnight recovery expected.

An upper ridge will expand over the region Tuesday with temperatures
well above normal. Since rh/s will struggle to drop below 15
percent, and 20 foot winds will generally be less than 20 mph,
critical fire weather conditions are not expected.

On Wednesday afternoon much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico
will have min rh/s of 10 to 15 percent. 20 foot winds will be a
little stronger than Tuesday as the ridge moves east of the region.
Near critical fire weather conditions are more likely than Tuesday
due to the stronger 20 foot wind speeds and lower rh/s expected.
Recovery Wednesday night is expected to be generally poor to fair.

Thursday is shaping up to be a potentially significant fire weather
day across west Texas and southeast New Mexico as a powerful storm
system passes by to the north across the central Plains. Very windy
conditions along with much above normal temperatures and dry
conditions are expected. Fuels are expected to dry significantly by
Thursday which will enhance the fire weather threat. Stay tuned to
the latest discussions and forecasts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     41  78  46  86 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       38  80  45  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         47  83  50  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  45  80  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 42  69  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  76  43  82 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          29  73  31  80 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           41  79  47  86 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         42  79  47  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           38  81  44  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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  • Page last modified: 30-Sep-2016 6:36 PM UTC
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