Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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942
FXUS64 KMAF 281106
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
606 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ragged MVFR ceilings have spread north through the Permian Basin and
will affect KMAF, KINK and KHOB through 28/15Z before mixing out.
Thereafter expect VFR conditions at all area terminals.  Winds will
veer to the southwest and become gusty by late morning, then become
more westerly and persist through the afternoon.  It appears
thunderstorms will develop east of all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

A deep upper level low is developing around the Four Corners
region and will slowly move east across New Mexico today. This low
pressure system will affect the weather today and tomorrow in a
number of ways.

First of all, moisture is drawing northwards into the Permian
Basin this morning with dewpoints in the 60s currently being
observed in McCamey and Big Lake. This moisture will collide with
dry air to the west causing a dryline to form that could become
the focus for convective development today mainly in the eastern
Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos region. The best chance for
severe thunderstorms will be east of our CWA though persons in the Big
Spring-Snyder-Colorado City area should be alert for marginally
severe wind and hail.

The degree of strong winds that were initially expected with this
low has been scaled back somewhat. Current model runs have the low
center slightly farther south than was previously expected
bringing the lower winds near the low center closer to our area.
Strong winds are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains this
afternoon with low end advisory wind speeds expected in the
adjacent plains and Davis Mountains. Winds will diminish tonight
and are not expected to be as strong tomorrow.

A cold front will move through the area tomorrow as the upper low
moves east into North Texas. Cooler air behind the front will
bring highs back down to near or slightly below normal levels
before warming back by the end of the week. Another low pressure
system will move across the desert southwest this weekend on a
trajectory that is very similar to the one currently affecting the
area. Therefore the threats of wind/fire weather/severe storms
will need to be monitored over the next several days.

Hennig

.FIRE WEATHER...

A large upper level storm system will approach the region today with
southwesterly winds increasing ahead of it.  However, the upper low
will begin to move over the area this afternoon which could result
in shower development, and a cooling and moistening of the
atmospheric column.  This could limit the areal and temporal extent
of RHs of 15% or less.  There could be isolated lightning strikes
with some of the precipitation, in addition to locally strong, gusty
winds due to virga too.  Since 20 foot wind speeds will likely be 20
to 30 mph sustained over the Fire Weather Watch area for several
hours this afternoon, high temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above
normal, and fuels are dry enough for high to very high fire danger,
will err on the side of caution and convert the Watch to a Red Flag
Warning, except in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where RHs may
only have 15% RHs for an hour or two.

Recovery will be poor in most locations tonight as 20 foot westerly
winds prevail.  Dry conditions will continue Wednesday with critical
fire weather conditions expected to affect the Big Bend region,
Stockton Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos.  Will not issue a Fire
Weather Watch for these areas due to an already complicated RFW.
There could be a break in critical conditions Thursday, but another
upper level storm system approaching the area could make Friday and
Saturday critical fire weather days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     82  50  76  46 /  40  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       75  47  67  42 /  10   0  20  10
Dryden                         88  54  86  51 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  84  52  72  46 /  10  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 67  43  58  43 /  10   0  10   0
Hobbs                          75  45  59  40 /  10  10  20  10
Marfa                          74  41  67  37 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           82  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         80  49  70  45 /  20  10  10  10
Wink                           80  49  70  44 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM CDT
     /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

67/10

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