Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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286
FXUS64 KMAF 090454
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1054 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings have held at all but MAF, where ceilings have
scattered out to VFR. However, MVFR ceilings are expected to return
to MAF by 09Z, with MVFR conditions then prevailing areawide through
Friday morning.  There is the potential for patchy MVFR fog around
daybreak, with some IFR ceilings also possible for CNM and HOB
between 10-14Z. Gradual improvement to VFR is expected by 16-19Z on
Friday at all terminals. East winds will slowly veer around to the
south/southeast by Friday afternoon, remaining under 12kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 737 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

UPDATE...
Update to include -FZDZ/FG in the mtns overnight.

Light east wind tonight will help to keep clouds pushed in the
mtns with low vsby/FZFG and -FZDZ expected. Light ice
accumulations will be possible from Davis-GDP Mtns as well.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 547 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

AVIATION...

Low clouds remain across the region at issuance, and though MAF
and INK are expected to see VFR conditions for several hours this
evening, MVFR ceilings should redevelop by around 09-10Z at those
terminals. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will prevail areawide
tonight, with the potential for some MVFR fog around daybreak for
CNM, HOB, and INK. Gradual improvement to VFR is expected by
15-18Z on Friday at all terminals. Winds will slowly veer around
to the south by Friday afternoon, remaining under 12kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

The remainder of the snow is moving east of the area with
freezing temperatures across most of the CWA except south of the
Davis Mountains, portions of the Lower Trans Pecos, and along the
Rio Grande. The precipitation is expected to be out of the area by
this evening, and the rest of the forecast is dry. The surface
high will remain near the area overnight and skies will begin to
clear. Overnight lows tonight will be allowed to plummet into the
upper teens in northern Lea County to around 32 degrees around the
Rio Grande. There is a Hard Freeze Warning in effect for the
southern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos for a hard freeze and
along the Rio Grande for a freeze.

Surface winds will return to the south by Friday afternoon allowing
for temperatures to warm up into the 40s for most of the area.
Mostly zonal flow will be in place over the weekend with surface
winds become elevated out of the southwest to west with a surface
trough developing.  These conditions will allow for temperatures to
warm up into the 50s and 60s for Saturday and into the 60s and 70s
for most places on Sunday.  The GFS and ECMWF both show a weak cold
front moving into the area on Monday resulting in temperatures
cooling into the 50s for the northern Permian Basin.  The models
then show another, stronger cold front moving into the area Tuesday
night which will result in temperatures cooling into the 40s and 50s
for the CWA except along the Rio Grande on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     23  43  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       23  47  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         28  46  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  26  49  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 22  46  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          21  41  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          21  48  25  64 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           23  43  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         23  43  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           24  45  29  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Friday for Big Bend Area-
     Crane-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Terrell-Upton-Ward.

&&

$$

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