Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 301712

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1212 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

See aviation discussion below.


A nearly stationary and weakening upper level disturbance across
New Mexico will interact with copious amounts of moisture to
produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and tonight mainly along and west of a KHOB, KINK, KPEQ
to KFST line. Confidence was high enough to include tempo MVFR
thunderstorm groups for reduced ceilings and visibilities at these
terminals (and KCNM) through tonight.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/

12Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs/vis
through this morning and the potential for thunderstorms today.
Currently have an area of light to moderate showers affecting SE NM
extending south to near the Davis Mountains early this morning.
Conditions have slowly deteriorated over the last couple of hours
with fairly spotty MVFR/IFR cigs affecting most terminals. Have most
terminals returning to VFR by mid morning however with the current
shower activity, CNM and HOB may hold on to low cigs a bit
longer...maybe through noon. Will continue SHRA at all but MAF but
TS is definitely possible later today and could affect any and all
terminals. Nailing down exact timing and location is too difficult
at this time and will instead monitor radar trends and amend when
needed or adjust accordingly in subsequent TAF issuances. Otherwise,
winds will generally be from the E/NE aob 10kt.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/

Convection has increased across the area since midnight though
most of the shower activity has remained light to moderate.
However this rain is aligning in the same areas that have
received a lot of rain recently and any more could cause more
flash flooding concerns...especially from southeast New Mexico
into the Big Bend. Therefore have extended the Flash Flood Watch
out through this evening with the possibility that the day shift
may need to extend it once more into tonight. By tomorrow it
appears the areal coverage of rainfall will be diminishing and it
does not look likely that the watch will need to be extended
beyond that. Rain chances do not disappear entirely but this
weekend certainly looks drier than the past several days have
been. Along with the drier conditions we can expect high
temperatures increase back up to near normal...from the upper 80s
to lower 90s with the hottest readings along the Rio Grande.



Big Spring                     69  88  69  87 /  40  30  30  40
Carlsbad                       67  80  66  86 /  70  50  40  50
Dryden                         71  92  72  89 /  40  20  20  30
Fort Stockton                  67  84  68  87 /  50  30  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 61  75  62  75 /  50  50  40  40
Hobbs                          65  77  65  84 /  60  50  40  50
Marfa                          61  78  61  79 /  30  40  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           67  85  69  87 /  40  30  30  40
Odessa                         67  84  69  87 /  40  30  30  40
Wink                           69  86  70  89 /  60  40  30  40


.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54



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