Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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199
FXUS64 KMAF 261139
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
539 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with increasing clouds moving in from the west.  S wind will
veer around to the W by afternoon as a surface trough drags across
the area. A strong front will blow through the area overnight. A
slight chance of showers today spreading east tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Slow moving upper level low/trough near the four corners region
will be a main player in the weather forecast through Saturday
night. A disturbance rotating around the low will bring a chance
of rain and snow to the Guadalupe Mountains today with a dusting
to up to an inch of snow possible. Further east across the
southeast New Mexico Plains and the Van Horn Highway 54 corridor,
temperatures will be warmer with a slight chance of rain. Windy
conditions will develop at the Guadalupe Pass with mid level
winds increasing to near 40 knots. Breezy southwest winds are
expected in portions of the plains due to the surface pressure
gradient increasing ahead of the upper low. The downslope
southwest winds will allow temperatures across most of west
Texas to reach above normal values this afternoon despite
an increase in clouds.

A northern stream trough moving across the northern plains will
allow a cold front to push south through the region tonight.
With the southern stream trough still to the west, the
chance of precipitation will expand with the southern moving cold
front to include southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas
except, near the Rio Grande River and the lower Trans Pecos.
Temperatures are expected to cool enough through the column to
turn the rain to snow across southeast New Mexico and the extreme
northwest Permian Basin late tonight with a dusting to up to a
half inch of snow possible. Further south and east, there will be
a slight chance to a chance of rain possibly mixing with or
changing to snow across the rest of the northern Permian Basin and
the upper Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains. A dusting of snow will
be possible in these areas.

Colder air will continue to funnel south into the forecast area
Saturday and Saturday night behind the front with the upper trough
approaching from the west. Will continue a slight chance of
rain/snow Saturday along and west of a Colorado City, Midland,
Alpine to Presidio line. The better chance of snow should shift
south into the Davis Mountains and Big Bend Saturday night as
the upper trough sinks southeast into the area. Still to early to
determine snow amounts, but it appears that the best chance for
accumulating snow Saturday will be in the upper Trans Pecos Region
and then shift south Saturday night into the Lower Trans Pecos,
Davis Mountains and Big Bend. Would not be surprised to see a
dusting to up to a couple inches of snow in these areas by
Sunday morning.

The upper trough is forecast to finally be east of the region
by Sunday through Monday night with zonal flow aloft taking
its place. Looking for a rebound in High temperatures both
Sunday and Monday, approaching near normal values, as a surface
lee trough develops.

An amplifying upper level low is forecast to dig slowly south
across the western States for much of next week as another cold
front plunges through the forecast area by Monday night. Much
below normal temperatures are expected behind this front Tuesday
through New Years day as surface high pressure builds into the
area. In addition the aforementioned upper low will slowly
approach through next week and bring with it periodic chances of
light precipitation, some of which could be in the form of light
snow Tuesday and New Years day.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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