Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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980
FXUS64 KMAF 211613
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1013 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...

We have updated the forecast as dense fog has begun to dissipated
across the area. Fog will continue to diminish the next few hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

DISCUSSION... A potent southern stream upper level low pressure
area across southern California will be the main feature of
interest the next couple of days. This system will approach the
forecast area tonight and Saturday allowing an anomalous late
season increase in low level moisture surge northwestward from the
western Gulf of Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive upper
divergence associated with the upper system should act on a
unstable atmosphere and allow thunderstorms to develop along an
advancing eastward moving cold front late tonight and Saturday.
The best chance of thunderstorms (good chance to likely) will be
across the eastern Permian Basin. This area is expected to be in
the deepest moisture for the longest period of time. Some of these
storms could be strong, producing hail, in the eastern Permian
Basin, given elevated capes of over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid
level lapse rates, cold air aloft and strong shear expected.
Precipitation chances will begin to decrease Saturday afternoon as
the system pushes east toward west central Texas.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday. Strong
mid level flow will be capable of producing high winds in the
mountains particularly across the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet
Sunday and or Monday. Later shifts will need to monitor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  52  66  45  /   0  30  40   0
BIG SPRING TX              69  55  67  46  /   0  50  70  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  43  72  44  /   0  20  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  73  55  75  48  /   0  20  30   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  49  71  49  /   0  20  30   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  43  60  41  /   0  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   66  50  66  42  /   0  20  30   0
MARFA TX                   68  37  63  33  /   0  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  54  67  46  /   0  30  50   0
ODESSA TX                  68  52  68  46  /   0  30  50   0
WINK TX                    72  51  71  44  /   0  20  30   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03/84

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