Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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025
FXUS64 KMAF 061057
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
457 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2015

.UPDATE...

Update to add low clouds and freezing fog to portions of the
forecast area, and send the latest Aviation Discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Low clouds and fog continue to develop along and east of the
Guadalupe, Apache and Davis Mountains early this morning, and
spread northeastward.  A few locations will see visibility drop to
around 1/4 mile at times, but the extent of the fog coverage does
not warrant a Dense Fog Advisory.  Will instead utilize social
media posts to alert residents in these areas.  Since temperatures
are well below freezing, freezing fog will likely allow a thin
layer of ice to form on vehicles and other raised surfaces.  An
updated forecast will follow shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low clouds and fog continue to develop just east of the higher
terrain over southeast New Mexico and west Texas early this
morning, and drift north and east.  Therefore have included
temporary IFR ceilings and MVFR visibility in fog at KCNM, KPEQ
and KINK.  By 06/15Z, or shortly thereafter, expect the low
clouds and fog to lift with VFR conditions prevailing areawide
thereafter.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2015/

Sprawling cold surface high pressure centered from the southern
plains to the Mississippi and Ohio Valley will be the main weather
feature through Saturday. Temperatures should continue to slowly
warm both days as the surface high modifies and continues to push
east away from the area. Temperatures however should still remain
well below normal given the lack of surface trough development
expected.

The next southern stream upper level storm system currently off
the coast of Baja will impact the forecast area from Saturday
night through Monday. Forcing with the upper level trough combined
with low level convergence from a reflected surface inverted
trough will produce a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms
these periods, with the best chance across west Texas. Temperatures
should continue to warm with the development of the inverted surface
trough but still remain below normal with considerable clouds
expected.

Behind this system a large but much weaker upper level trough will
develop and remain nearly stationary over the forecast area from
Monday night through next Friday. Most of the precipitation
with this trough should remain east of the  forecast area, east
of the trough axis and near the surface reflection in the Gulf
of Mexico and the Gulf Coast states. Temperatures are expected
to continue to warm but remain at or below normal Tuesday
and Wednesday but climb to at or above normal by next Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 50  28  52  34  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              52  30  53  37  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                51  27  52  30  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  54  33  60  41  /   0   0   0  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           56  31  54  41  /   0   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          48  30  50  36  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   49  26  51  31  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   56  24  56  36  /   0   0  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    52  29  54  35  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  50  30  54  37  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    56  29  55  37  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

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585
FXUS64 KMAF 060941
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
341 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Sprawling cold surface high pressure centered from the southern
plains to the Mississippi and Ohio Valley will be the main
weather feature through Saturday. Temperatures should continue
to slowly warm both days as the surface high modifies and continues
to push east away from the area. Temperatures however should
still remain well below normal given the lack of surface trough
development expected.

The next southern stream upper level storm system currently off
the coast of Baja will impact the forecast area from Saturday
night through Monday. Forcing with the upper level trough combined
with low level convergence from a reflected surface inverted
trough will produce a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms
these periods, with the best chance across west Texas. Temperatures
should continue to warm with the development of the inverted surface
trough but still remain below normal with considerable clouds
expected.

Behind this system a large but much weaker upper level trough will
develop and remain nearly stationary over the forecast area from
Monday night through next Friday. Most of the precipitation
with this trough should remain east of the  forecast area, east
of the trough axis and near the surface reflection in the Gulf
of Mexico and the Gulf Coast states. Temperatures are expected
to continue to warm but remain at or below normal Tuesday
and Wednesday but climb to at or above normal by next Thursday
and Friday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 50  28  52  34  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              52  30  53  37  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                51  27  52  30  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  54  33  60  41  /   0   0   0  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           56  31  54  41  /   0   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          48  30  50  36  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   49  26  51  31  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   56  24  56  36  /   0   0  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    52  29  54  35  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  50  30  54  37  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    56  29  55  37  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

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159
FXUS64 KMAF 060431
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1018 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will
generally be light out of the south to southeast.  High clouds are
expected to move over the area beginning Friday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Mother Nature looks to finally gives us a break from active, cold
weather we`ve had over the past week. We will stay cool over the
next several days...however temps will be much closer to normal than
it has been.

Clouds have eroded for the most part this afternoon making for a
sunny, but chilly day across the area. Upslope flow against the
higher terrain continues to keep clouds in place along the eastern
slopes. Even with such a cold start this morning temperatures have
climbed into the 30`s and 40`s except underneath the clouds where
Alpine is still at 29 degrees as of 2 PM. The sfc high centered just
to our north will slowly drift east the next couple of days helping
to swing our winds to the southeast. Normally this would help warm
us quickly but the extent of the current airmass pushes well into
the Gulf of Mexico. So instead expect a gradual warm-up Friday into
the weekend, but with increasing clouds ahead of a weak storm
system.

An upper level low that had previously broke away from the upper
trough that affected the region yesterday will begin to drift east
over northern Mexico today. This system will shear out as it
approaches the Southern Plains this weekend, but still looks to
bring a chance for showers especially across the Lower Trans Pecos
and Big Bend regions Saturday night into Sunday. The upper pattern
for next week is a bit unclear as models show a weak upper trough
hanging somewhere around the area. It does appear that no matter
what we will finally see some Springlike temperatures and much drier
conditions by the middle of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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720
FXUS64 KMAF 052259
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
449 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

The low ceilings near/over PEQ and FST are expected to clear up in
the next hour or two.  VFR conditions will prevail after the low
ceilings clear out of the area.  Winds will be light out of the
south to southeast throughout the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Mother Nature looks to finally gives us a break from active, cold
weather we`ve had over the past week. We will stay cool over the
next several days...however temps will be much closer to normal than
it has been.

Clouds have eroded for the most part this afternoon making for a
sunny, but chilly day across the area. Upslope flow against the
higher terrain continues to keep clouds in place along the eastern
slopes. Even with such a cold start this morning temperatures have
climbed into the 30`s and 40`s except underneath the clouds where
Alpine is still at 29 degrees as of 2 PM. The sfc high centered just
to our north will slowly drift east the next couple of days helping
to swing our winds to the southeast. Normally this would help warm
us quickly but the extent of the current airmass pushes well into
the Gulf of Mexico. So instead expect a gradual warm-up Friday into
the weekend, but with increasing clouds ahead of a weak storm
system.

An upper level low that had previously broke away from the upper
trough that affected the region yesterday will begin to drift east
over northern Mexico today. This system will shear out as it
approaches the Southern Plains this weekend, but still looks to
bring a chance for showers especially across the Lower Trans Pecos
and Big Bend regions Saturday night into Sunday. The upper pattern
for next week is a bit unclear as models show a weak upper trough
hanging somewhere around the area. It does appear that no matter
what we will finally see some Springlike temperatures and much drier
conditions by the middle of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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947
FXUS64 KMAF 052004
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
204 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Mother Nature looks to finally gives us a break from active, cold
weather we`ve had over the past week. We will stay cool over the
next several days...however temps will be much closer to normal than
it has been.

Clouds have eroded for the most part this afternoon making for a
sunny, but chilly day across the area. Upslope flow against the
higher terrain continues to keep clouds in place along the eastern
slopes. Even with such a cold start this morning temperatures have
climbed into the 30`s and 40`s except underneath the clouds where
Alpine is still at 29 degrees as of 2 PM. The sfc high centered just
to our north will slowly drift east the next couple of days helping
to swing our winds to the southeast. Normally this would help warm
us quickly but the extent of the current airmass pushes well into
the Gulf of Mexico. So instead expect a gradual warm-up Friday into
the weekend, but with increasing clouds ahead of a weak storm
system.

An upper level low that had previously broke away from the upper
trough that affected the region yesterday will begin to drift east
over northern Mexico today. This system will shear out as it
approaches the Southern Plains this weekend, but still looks to
bring a chance for showers especially across the Lower Trans Pecos
and Big Bend regions Saturday night into Sunday. The upper pattern
for next week is a bit unclear as models show a weak upper trough
hanging somewhere around the area. It does appear that no matter
what we will finally see some Springlike temperatures and much drier
conditions by the middle of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 21  51  28  52  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              23  54  30  54  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                21  53  27  50  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  29  53  33  60  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           24  48  31  51  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          22  46  30  46  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   20  51  26  51  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   19  51  24  53  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    22  50  29  53  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  23  51  30  51  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    23  52  29  51  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/29

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512
FXUS64 KMAF 051820 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1220 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

.UPDATE...
Update has been sent to warm temperatures a few degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As clouds have cleared across the Basin and parts of SE NM temperatures
have increased (in some cases to near fcst highs) and as such we have
increased temps as much as 6 degrees in some place across the Basin.
12Z MOS guidance, trends and surface temperatures from model data all
support this. There could still be some pockets of freezing fog on
e slopes of the Davis Mtns, but that too will slowly lift.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS remain at CNM/PEQ but are expected to lift around 20Z,
23Z respectively. Otherwise VFR thru the night with S-SE winds
less than 10kts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

There may be a few flurries this morning in various locations with a
brief drop to IFR ceilings.  Since the duration of this
precipitation will be short, and visibility is not expected to drop,
will not include at any terminals.  Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will
give way to VFR ceilings through 05/15Z, then scattered clouds this
afternoon.  VFR conditions will prevail during the rest of the
forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level trough axis approaching the region with precipitation
occurring east of the forecast area across central and east Texas.
Due to the precipitation ending, have canceled the Winter Weather
Advisory that was in effect for southeast New Mexico and much of
west Texas. Have also canceled the High Wind Warning for Guadalupe
Pass due to recent trends.

Strong and cold surface high pressure centered across the
southern high plains will be the main weather feature through
Sunday. NAM guidance indicating considerable cloudiness
with weak upslope flow through Saturday. Temperatures should
continue well below normal through the weekend due to the
influence of the cold surface high and clouds expected.

A weak and slow moving upper level trough will approach the
region Sunday and could provide a slight chance of showers
to the Big Bend. The upper level trough axis will be very
slow to leave the region early next week but precipitation
chances should remain east of the forecast area, east of the
trough axis, next Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures may finally
warm to near normal values by Tuesday due to weak surface
trough formation across northeast New Mexico. Above normal
and dry conditions expected next Wednesday and possibly
Thursday as the surface trough strengthens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 39  22  48  28  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              40  23  48  30  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                41  22  48  25  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  42  29  48  31  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           39  25  51  31  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          34  21  45  30  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   39  21  49  26  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   41  19  49  22  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    41  23  48  29  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  40  24  48  30  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    40  23  51  28  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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841
FXUS64 KMAF 051723
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1123 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS remain at CNM/PEQ but are expected to lift around 20Z,
23Z respectively. Otherwise VFR thru the night with S-SE winds
less than 10kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

There may be a few flurries this morning in various locations with a
brief drop to IFR ceilings.  Since the duration of this
precipitation will be short, and visibility is not expected to drop,
will not include at any terminals.  Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will
give way to VFR ceilings through 05/15Z, then scattered clouds this
afternoon.  VFR conditions will prevail during the rest of the
forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level trough axis approaching the region with precipitation
occurring east of the forecast area across central and east Texas.
Due to the precipitation ending, have canceled the Winter Weather
Advisory that was in effect for southeast New Mexico and much of
west Texas. Have also canceled the High Wind Warning for Guadalupe
Pass due to recent trends.

Strong and cold surface high pressure centered across the
southern high plains will be the main weather feature through
Sunday. NAM guidance indicating considerable cloudiness
with weak upslope flow through Saturday. Temperatures should
continue well below normal through the weekend due to the
influence of the cold surface high and clouds expected.

A weak and slow moving upper level trough will approach the
region Sunday and could provide a slight chance of showers
to the Big Bend. The upper level trough axis will be very
slow to leave the region early next week but precipitation
chances should remain east of the forecast area, east of the
trough axis, next Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures may finally
warm to near normal values by Tuesday due to weak surface
trough formation across northeast New Mexico. Above normal
and dry conditions expected next Wednesday and possibly
Thursday as the surface trough strengthens.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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804
FXUS64 KMAF 051046
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
446 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

There may be a few flurries this morning in various locations with a
brief drop to IFR ceilings.  Since the duration of this
precipitation will be short, and visibility is not expected to drop,
will not include at any terminals.  Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will
give way to VFR ceilings through 05/15Z, then scattered clouds this
afternoon.  VFR conditions will prevail during the rest of the
forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level trough axis approaching the region with precipitation
occurring east of the forecast area across central and east Texas.
Due to the precipitation ending, have canceled the Winter Weather
Advisory that was in effect for southeast New Mexico and much of
west Texas. Have also canceled the High Wind Warning for Guadalupe
Pass due to recent trends.

Strong and cold surface high pressure centered across the
southern high plains will be the main weather feature through
Sunday. NAM guidance indicating considerable cloudiness
with weak upslope flow through Saturday. Temperatures should
continue well below normal through the weekend due to the
influence of the cold surface high and clouds expected.

A weak and slow moving upper level trough will approach the
region Sunday and could provide a slight chance of showers
to the Big Bend. The upper level trough axis will be very
slow to leave the region early next week but precipitation
chances should remain east of the forecast area, east of the
trough axis, next Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures may finally
warm to near normal values by Tuesday due to weak surface
trough formation across northeast New Mexico. Above normal
and dry conditions expected next Wednesday and possibly
Thursday as the surface trough strengthens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 35  22  48  28  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              35  23  48  30  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  22  48  25  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  38  29  48  31  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           35  25  51  31  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          32  21  45  30  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   35  21  49  26  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   37  19  49  22  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    35  23  48  29  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  34  24  48  30  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    37  23  51  28  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

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124
FXUS64 KMAF 050938
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
338 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level trough axis approaching the region with precipitation
occurring east of the forecast area across central and east Texas.
Due to the precipitation ending, have canceled the Winter Weather
Advisory that was in effect for southeast New Mexico and much of
west Texas. Have also canceled the High Wind Warning for Guadalupe
Pass due to recent trends.

Strong and cold surface high pressure centered across the
southern high plains will be the main weather feature through
Sunday. NAM guidance indicating considerable cloudiness
with weak upslope flow through Saturday. Temperatures should
continue well below normal through the weekend due to the
influence of the cold surface high and clouds expected.

A weak and slow moving upper level trough will approach the
region Sunday and could provide a slight chance of showers
to the Big Bend. The upper level trough axis will be very
slow to leave the region early next week but precipitation
chances should remain east of the forecast area, east of the
trough axis, next Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures may finally
warm to near normal values by Tuesday due to weak surface
trough formation across northeast New Mexico. Above normal
and dry conditions expected next Wednesday and possibly
Thursday as the surface trough strengthens.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 35  22  48  28  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              35  23  48  30  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  22  48  25  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  38  29  48  31  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           35  25  51  31  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          32  21  45  30  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   35  21  49  26  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   37  19  49  22  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    35  23  48  29  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  34  24  48  30  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    37  23  51  28  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

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193
FXUS64 KMAF 050342
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
942 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

.UPDATE...
Decreased PoPs areawide as regional radars shows the main
precipitation moving east of the CWA. Still getting some light-
moderate sleet/snow across the lower Trans Pecos and southern Permian
Basin but this will continue to shift east over the next couple
hours. There is little to no indication that precip will redevelop
tonight so very little, if any, additional ice/snow accumulation
is expected. Conditions will remain icy overnight as overnight
with temps in the 20s. May finally see temps rise above freezing
by early-mid afternoon Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 05/00z aviation forecast discussion below.

AVIATION...

The much-advertised cold front looks to have cleared KPEQ and KFST;
however, the colder surface air has lagged a bit. The 0 degC isotherm
looks to be running from just north of KCNM to about 20NM south of
KMAF to just south of KSJT. South of this line, we`re seeing some
very shallow and sheared convection, with somehow enough MLCAPE to
favor storm electrification. Have thus added TSRA as a TEMPO group
to KFST and KPEQ. North of the freezing line we`re seeing a
transition from freezing rain/sleet to snow, with at times moderate
snow reported from KHOB and KCNM. Widespread IFR to at times LIFR
cigs are expected through the nighttime hours.  Precipitation will
transition to snow at all TAF sites this evening as the column
falls below freezing and with lift associated with a shortwave
trough passage beginning to diminish. By sunrise we expect the
precip to taper to flurries from west to east, and skies should
begin to transition from MVFR to SKC by midday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 20  34  22  46  /  30   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              21  33  23  45  /  40   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                23  37  22  48  /  20  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  29  38  29  49  /  50  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           23  35  25  48  /  30  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          15  32  21  42  /  10  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   19  34  21  46  /  20   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   24  37  19  47  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    21  34  23  46  /  40   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  21  34  24  45  /  30   0   0   0
WINK TX                    24  35  23  47  /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Thursday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Thursday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 AM MST Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

99/27

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759
FXUS64 KMAF 042358
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
558 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 05/00z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

The much-advertised cold front looks to have cleared KPEQ and KFST;
however, the colder surface air has lagged a bit. The 0 degC isotherm
looks to be running from just north of KCNM to about 20NM south of
KMAF to just south of KSJT. South of this line, we`re seeing some
very shallow and sheared convection, with somehow enough MLCAPE to
favor storm electrification. Have thus added TSRA as a TEMPO group
to KFST and KPEQ. North of the freezing line we`re seeing a
transition from freezing rain/sleet to snow, with at times moderate
snow reported from KHOB and KCNM. Widespread IFR to at times LIFR
cigs are expected through the nighttime hours.  Precipitation will
transition to snow at all TAF sites this evening as the column
falls below freezing and with lift associated with a shortwave
trough passage beginning to diminish. By sunrise we expect the
precip to taper to flurries from west to east, and skies should
begin to transition from MVFR to SKC by midday.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Thursday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Thursday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 AM MST Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

70

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757
FXUS64 KMAF 041934
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
134 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Strong upper trough extending from Canada down to Northern Mexico
will move east today and bring another shot of winter wx to the
region through tonight.  A mix of rain... freezing rain... sleet...
and snow is possible through tonight.  As this trough slowly pushes
east the influence of a West Coast ridge will increase and have
improving wx through the weekend into next week.

A cold front pushing through the area today will continue on to
Mexico this evening.  Cold post frontal conditions expected tomorrow
with a cold arctic airmass in place and a NE wind across the area.
Will have widespread cloud cover over the area through tonight.
Clouds will slowly decrease on Thursday.  Temps will fall through
the night as cold air advection continues with readings falling into
the 20s for nearly all the area and may see a few teens north.

A Winter Wx Advisory is in effect this afternoon through tonight for
a mix of freezing rain... sleet... or snow.  Precip has already
begun as rain and will change over to freezing rain... sleet... and
eventually mainly snow.  Freezing rain or sleet will be the main
justification for advisory as snow amounts do not look that heavy.
Heaviest snow of 1 to 2 inches possible for portions of Southeast
NM.  Snow may fall as far south as Brewster and Presidio counties.
Have expanded the Advisory southward and it now covers all the CWA
except for the Presidio Valley.  Expect the highest precip totals
tonight across the Central Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos.
Currently the advisory runs through 12z but this may end up getting
extended a few hours mainly for the southern CWA if precip
continues.

Otherwise a High Wind Warning remains in effect tonight for the
Guadalupe Pass.  Will keep rest of the forecast mainly dry.  Except
for near the Rio Grande do not expect highs to get out of the 30s on
Thursday.  Another cold night Thursday night.  On Friday
temperatures begin to recover and should climb back into the 40s.
Highs in the 50s return Saturday with 60s seen by Sunday into next
week as finally get an extended amount of mild wx.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 20  34  22  46  /  70   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              21  33  23  45  /  70   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                23  37  22  48  /  50  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  28  38  29  49  /  80  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           23  35  25  48  /  70  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          15  32  21  42  /  40  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   19  34  21  46  /  60   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   24  37  19  47  /  60  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    22  34  23  46  /  70   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  21  34  24  45  /  70   0   0   0
WINK TX                    24  35  23  47  /  60  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Thursday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Thursday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...
     Midland...Mitchell...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Thursday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Guadalupe Mountains...Marfa Plateau...
     Pecos...Terrell...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 AM MST Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10/72

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494
FXUS64 KMAF 041735
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1135 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A cold front is moving through the area bringing increasing
northeasterly winds, colder temperatures, and lowering CIG/VIS.
VFR conditions have already or will soon decrease to LIFR at all
TAF sites. Light rain near HOB, CNM, and INK will move east and
decreasing temperatures will change the precip from rain to
freezing rain, sleet, and snow 21-03Z. Light snow will then
continue 03-12Z before ending. Some improvement in CIG/VIS can be
expected after 12Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Another arctic cold front, and the potential for wintry
precipitation behind it, are making for a difficult forecast this
morning.  Currently, the front is located from east central New
Mexico, east/southeastward across the Texas Panhandle.  Meanwhile,
an ua trough was translating eastward over northern Mexico.  Expect
showers will continue to develop ahead of the upper system, with
perhaps a few lightning strikes from southwest Texas across the
Lower Trans Pecos through the day.  Think precipitation will remain
all liquid over the forecast area through 04/18Z despite the frontal
boundary pushing into the southeast New Mexico Plains, and Permian
Basin by then.  Winds behind the front will be at least 20 mph
sustained, and with gusts around 30 mph at times, wind chills will
likely drop into the teens.  After 04/18Z, we could see a mix of
freezing rain and sleet from SE NM, eastward across the northern
Permian Basin and western Low Rolling Plains by early afternoon,
with this mix extending into the central Permian Basin by 05/00Z.
Although ice accumulations will be limited to one tenth of an inch
or less, icy roads could develop in these areas before nightfall.
Since the low level warm layer will not be as pronounced further
west over the rest of SE NM and over the Guadalupe Mountains, expect
there to be a mix of rain, sleet and snow.  Surface temperatures
will be slower to cool in these areas, so accumulations prior to
05/00Z will not be great.  Tonight, the atmospheric column will cool
with precipitation changing to sleet and snow this evening, then all
snow after 05/06Z.  Snowfall amounts are expected to be around an
inch, perhaps two over SE NM, with an inch or less over the Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  A mix of freezing rain and
sleet could affect the Stockton Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos this
evening, but due to the column cooling, think any icing potential
will be fairly limited, due to a changeover to sleet or snow, and
also to how light precipitation will be in these areas.  Considering
all of the above, have decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory
for the SE NM Plains, Permian Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.
To keep the product from being too complicated, it will begin at
04/18Z and run until 05/12Z, despite the different timing for the
wintry precipitation.

Strong northeast winds will increase through Guadalupe Pass behind
the front tonight.  Since wind speeds will probably rise to 40 to 50
mph, have issued a High Wind Warning which will run from 05/00Z
until 05/15Z.  After precipitation ends late tonight, the ua trough
will shear eastward.  We will still be left with the arctic airmass
over the region, so have kept high and low temperatures a bit below
guidance considering how poorly models performed with the last arctic
airmass.  We will warm closer to normal over the weekend, then a bit
warmer early next week.  A weak ua trough is progged to head our way
via northern Mexico next week.  Have kept the forecast dry through
the extended for now due to variable solutions regarding the ua
troughs movement, and how weak it is.

AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions expected early this morning ahead of a strong
cold front. The front is expected to quickly push southwest to
near the Interstate 20 corridor by 15z and the Interstate 10
corridor by 17z. MVFR conditions will rapidly develop behind the
front with winds turning northeast and increasing to 15 to 25 mph
and gusty. Expecting IFR conditions in rain and fog to develop
generally 2 to 4 hours after fropa with a mixture of rain, sleet,
freezing rain and snow developing in the 20-24z Thursday TIMEFRAME.
IFR conditions are expected to continue Thursday evening in snow and
sleet. Northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusty will continue
through Thursday evening.

$$

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Thursday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...
     Midland...Mitchell...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM MST Thursday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10

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090
FXUS64 KMAF 041735
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1135 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A cold front is moving through the area bringing increasing
northeasterly winds, colder temperatures, and lowering CIG/VIS.
VFR conditions have already or will soon decrease to LIFR at all
TAF sites. Light rain near HOB, CNM, and INK will move east and
decreasing temperatures will change the precip from rain to
freezing rain, sleet, and snow 21-03Z. Light snow will then
continue 03-12Z before ending. Some improvement in CIG/VIS can be
expected after 12Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Another arctic cold front, and the potential for wintry
precipitation behind it, are making for a difficult forecast this
morning.  Currently, the front is located from east central New
Mexico, east/southeastward across the Texas Panhandle.  Meanwhile,
an ua trough was translating eastward over northern Mexico.  Expect
showers will continue to develop ahead of the upper system, with
perhaps a few lightning strikes from southwest Texas across the
Lower Trans Pecos through the day.  Think precipitation will remain
all liquid over the forecast area through 04/18Z despite the frontal
boundary pushing into the southeast New Mexico Plains, and Permian
Basin by then.  Winds behind the front will be at least 20 mph
sustained, and with gusts around 30 mph at times, wind chills will
likely drop into the teens.  After 04/18Z, we could see a mix of
freezing rain and sleet from SE NM, eastward across the northern
Permian Basin and western Low Rolling Plains by early afternoon,
with this mix extending into the central Permian Basin by 05/00Z.
Although ice accumulations will be limited to one tenth of an inch
or less, icy roads could develop in these areas before nightfall.
Since the low level warm layer will not be as pronounced further
west over the rest of SE NM and over the Guadalupe Mountains, expect
there to be a mix of rain, sleet and snow.  Surface temperatures
will be slower to cool in these areas, so accumulations prior to
05/00Z will not be great.  Tonight, the atmospheric column will cool
with precipitation changing to sleet and snow this evening, then all
snow after 05/06Z.  Snowfall amounts are expected to be around an
inch, perhaps two over SE NM, with an inch or less over the Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  A mix of freezing rain and
sleet could affect the Stockton Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos this
evening, but due to the column cooling, think any icing potential
will be fairly limited, due to a changeover to sleet or snow, and
also to how light precipitation will be in these areas.  Considering
all of the above, have decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory
for the SE NM Plains, Permian Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.
To keep the product from being too complicated, it will begin at
04/18Z and run until 05/12Z, despite the different timing for the
wintry precipitation.

Strong northeast winds will increase through Guadalupe Pass behind
the front tonight.  Since wind speeds will probably rise to 40 to 50
mph, have issued a High Wind Warning which will run from 05/00Z
until 05/15Z.  After precipitation ends late tonight, the ua trough
will shear eastward.  We will still be left with the arctic airmass
over the region, so have kept high and low temperatures a bit below
guidance considering how poorly models performed with the last arctic
airmass.  We will warm closer to normal over the weekend, then a bit
warmer early next week.  A weak ua trough is progged to head our way
via northern Mexico next week.  Have kept the forecast dry through
the extended for now due to variable solutions regarding the ua
troughs movement, and how weak it is.

AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions expected early this morning ahead of a strong
cold front. The front is expected to quickly push southwest to
near the Interstate 20 corridor by 15z and the Interstate 10
corridor by 17z. MVFR conditions will rapidly develop behind the
front with winds turning northeast and increasing to 15 to 25 mph
and gusty. Expecting IFR conditions in rain and fog to develop
generally 2 to 4 hours after fropa with a mixture of rain, sleet,
freezing rain and snow developing in the 20-24z Thursday TIMEFRAME.
IFR conditions are expected to continue Thursday evening in snow and
sleet. Northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusty will continue
through Thursday evening.

$$

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Thursday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...
     Midland...Mitchell...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM MST Thursday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10

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220
FXUS64 KMAF 041105
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
505 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Another arctic cold front, and the potential for wintry
precipitation behind it, are making for a difficult forecast this
morning.  Currently, the front is located from east central New
Mexico, east/southeastward across the Texas Panhandle.  Meanwhile,
an ua trough was translating eastward over northern Mexico.  Expect
showers will continue to develop ahead of the upper system, with
perhaps a few lightning strikes from southwest Texas across the
Lower Trans Pecos through the day.  Think precipitation will remain
all liquid over the forecast area through 04/18Z despite the frontal
boundary pushing into the southeast New Mexico Plains, and Permian
Basin by then.  Winds behind the front will be at least 20 mph
sustained, and with gusts around 30 mph at times, wind chills will
likely drop into the teens.  After 04/18Z, we could see a mix of
freezing rain and sleet from SE NM, eastward across the northern
Permian Basin and western Low Rolling Plains by early afternoon,
with this mix extending into the central Permian Basin by 05/00Z.
Although ice accumulations will be limited to one tenth of an inch
or less, icy roads could develop in these areas before nightfall.
Since the low level warm layer will not be as pronounced further
west over the rest of SE NM and over the Guadalupe Mountains, expect
there to be a mix of rain, sleet and snow.  Surface temperatures
will be slower to cool in these areas, so accumulations prior to
05/00Z will not be great.  Tonight, the atmospheric column will cool
with precipitation changing to sleet and snow this evening, then all
snow after 05/06Z.  Snowfall amounts are expected to be around an
inch, perhaps two over SE NM, with an inch or less over the Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  A mix of freezing rain and
sleet could affect the Stockton Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos this
evening, but due to the column cooling, think any icing potential
will be fairly limited, due to a changeover to sleet or snow, and
also to how light precipitation will be in these areas.  Considering
all of the above, have decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory
for the SE NM Plains, Permian Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.
To keep the product from being too complicated, it will begin at
04/18Z and run until 05/12Z, despite the different timing for the
wintry precipitation.

Strong northeast winds will increase through Guadalupe Pass behind
the front tonight.  Since wind speeds will probably rise to 40 to 50
mph, have issued a High Wind Warning which will run from 05/00Z
until 05/15Z.  After precipitation ends late tonight, the ua trough
will shear eastward.  We will still be left with the arctic airmass
over the region, so have kept high and low temperatures a bit below
guidance considering how poorly models performed with the last arctic
airmass.  We will warm closer to normal over the weekend, then a bit
warmer early next week.  A weak ua trough is progged to head our way
via northern Mexico next week.  Have kept the forecast dry through
the extended for now due to variable solutions regarding the ua
troughs movement, and how weak it is.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions expected early this morning ahead of a strong
cold front. The front is expected to quickly push southwest to
near the Interstate 20 corridor by 15z and the Interstate 10
corridor by 17z. MVFR conditions will rapidly develop behind the
front with winds turning northeast and increasing to 15 to 25 mph
and gusty. Expecting IFR conditions in rain and fog to develop
generally 2 to 4 hours after fropa with a mixture of rain, sleet,
freezing rain and snow developing in the 20-24z Thursday TIMEFRAME.
IFR conditions are expected to continue Thursday evening in snow and
sleet. Northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusty will continue
through Thursday evening.

$$

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 48  21  36  21  /  50  40  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              52  23  35  22  /  60  60  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                57  26  39  23  /  60  30  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  70  29  38  29  /  40  70  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           62  23  37  25  /  50  60  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  16  34  21  /  30  30  10   0
HOBBS NM                   47  20  36  21  /  60  30  10   0
MARFA TX                   61  27  38  21  /  40  40  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    52  23  36  22  /  60  50  10   0
ODESSA TX                  53  22  36  24  /  60  50  10   0
WINK TX                    58  26  37  24  /  50  40  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM MST
     Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...
     Eddy County Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea
     County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon today to 6 AM CST Thursday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...
     Midland...Mitchell...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM MST Thursday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

12/67

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898
FXUS64 KMAF 040524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1124 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 04/06Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Still looks like a mess in the upcoming 24 hours, but timing of
fropa and onset of precip, as well as the changeover from liquid
through freezing to frozen appear to be just a smidge more certain.
Opted for a faster (by 2-3 hr) frontal movement in the am, with
the cold front hitting the I-20 corridor around 15z and down to
the I-10 corridor by 17z. Initially, post-frontal stratus and a
sharp (and I mean sharp) windshift to the northeast with gusts
over 25kts can be expected, then rain should begin to fall as a
lift associated with a minor shortwave trough provides the
impetus. The question now becomes one of precip phase and timing.
Again, going with a faster frontal movement accelerates things
some. At KCNM and KHOB, BUFR soundings suggest a low potential of
freezing, so at these sites the cutover to SN should be in the
early evening hours. Further south, the warm nose above the
front looks to be sufficient to melt snow into rain, but the cold
layer underneath the frontal inversion shallow enough to keep rain
from freezing into IP. At KMAF, KINK, KFST, and KPEQ, a cutover to
freezing rain looks to occur around 05/00Z, then over to snow a
couple of hours later. As one might expect, cigs and vsbys will be
in the IFR to LIFR categories occasionally. Although there`s a bit
of elevated instability evident across the eastern Permian Basin
Wednesday afternoon/evening, there doesn`t appear to be sufficient
uvv in the charging layer to gin up thunder.

All things are subject to change.  Stay tuned.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
     night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

70

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740
FXUS64 KMAF 040012
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 04/00z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Have made some changes to the ongoing owing to a quicker than
expected frontal translation. The 21Z HRRR pegged the position and
motion of the cold front at 23Z -- somewhere from just south of
Dalhart to near Borger then from there to near I-40 at the OK/TX
state line. As such, expect the front to arrive a bit sooner than
previous forecast, which unfortunately means bringing in wintry
precip and IFR/LIFR conditions Wednesday morning. Hope to have
things better pinned down on the 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough that extends from Montana southwestward back
to the Pacific will move east and drag across Northern Mexico on the
way to the region.  The trough will pass into the area Wednesday.
After the trough passes east on Thursday a West Coast ridge will
build into the area Friday with mild wx for the area.

Have had a marginal warm up today with highs in the 50s and 60s but
that is  not going to last long.  Today should be warmest day since
Feb 25th.  A strong cold front will blow through the area tomorrow with
an arctic airmass returning to the region.  The front has good
pressure rises behind it and is quickly moving across CO and KS this
afternoon.  This front will arrive in the NE Permian Basin early
Wednesday morning and quickly pass through the area.  The wind will
be gusty out of the N/NE behind the front.  Much of the region will
reach its high temps early with readings falling through the day.
As this front pushes through the Guadalupe Pass could see high wind.
Have issued a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Pass Wednesday night.
Highs only make it into the 30s Thursday. Will take a few days to
recover from this latest cold air intrusion but by the weekend
highs in the 60s should return and continue into early next week.

Have another shot of precip tonight... mainly showers but could be a
few storms.  As the cold air moves in Wednesday the precip may mix
with sleet or snow by afternoon especially across Northern Permian Basin.
This precip should change over to snow Wednesday night for much of
the region.  Currently have a SPS discussing wintry precip with max
snow accumulation up to 1 inch... if the cold air arrives faster
than an advisory may be needed.  Drier conditions begin Thursday
with no additional precip through end of forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
     night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

70

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050
FXUS64 KMAF 032055
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
255 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough that extends from Montana southwestward back
to the Pacific will move east and drag across Northern Mexico on the
way to the region.  The trough will pass into the area Wednesday.
After the trough passes east on Thursday a West Coast ridge will
build into the area Friday with mild wx for the area.

Have had a marginal warm up today with highs in the 50s and 60s but
that is  not going to last long.  Today should be warmest day since
Feb 25th.  A strong cold front will blow through the area tomorrow with
an arctic airmass returning to the region.  The front has good
pressure rises behind it and is quickly moving across CO and KS this
afternoon.  This front will arrive in the NE Permian Basin early
Wednesday morning and quickly pass through the area.  The wind will
be gusty out of the N/NE behind the front.  Much of the region will
reach its high temps early with readings falling through the day.
As this front pushes through the Guadalupe Pass could see high wind.
Have issued a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Pass Wednesday night.
Highs only make it into the 30s Thursday. Will take a few days to
recover from this latest cold air intrusion but by the weekend
highs in the 60s should return and continue into early next week.

Have another shot of precip tonight... mainly showers but could be a
few storms.  As the cold air moves in Wednesday the precip may mix
with sleet or snow by afternoon especially across Northern Permian Basin.
This precip should change over to snow Wednesday night for much of
the region.  Currently have a SPS discussing wintry precip with max
snow accumulation up to 1 inch... if the cold air arrives faster
than an advisory may be needed.  Drier conditions begin Thursday
with no additional precip through end of forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 45  47  22  38  /  50  50  30  10
BIG SPRING TX              45  46  22  37  /  40  50  40  10
CARLSBAD NM                43  55  25  39  /  30  30  30  10
DRYDEN TX                  51  64  31  43  /  30  40  40  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           48  56  25  39  /  50  40  30  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          39  47  18  34  /  30  30  30  10
HOBBS NM                   43  45  20  38  /  30  40  30  10
MARFA TX                   40  56  24  38  /  40  40  30  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    47  48  23  38  /  50  50  30  10
ODESSA TX                  47  49  22  38  /  50  50  30  10
WINK TX                    46  53  26  39  /  50  40  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
     night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10/72

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842
FXUS64 KMAF 031737
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1137 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
All locations are showing improving conditions with VFR expected
by 19Z. There is a chance for a return of low clouds and fog
tonight but models are showing VFR so confidence not high enough
to introduce into the TAFs at this time. Another strong cold front
will arrive late in this TAF period or shortly thereafter.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

UPDATE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS.  HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 18Z BUT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL A LITTLE EARLY.  UPDATED
PRODUCTS ON THERE WAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A complicated forecast today including, the good riddance of an
arctic airmass, fog this morning, rain chances today and tonight,
the arrival of the next arctic airmass, wintry precipitation chances
Wednesday and Wednesday night, possible high winds through Guadalupe
Pass Wednesday night, and lastly, how long will this next arctic
airmass reside over the region?  Currently, the last vestiges of the
mentioned arctic airmass appear to be on the way out of the area as
surface pressure falls continue to mount ahead of a surface trough
developing south through eastern New Mexico early this morning.  Low
level moisture is beginning to spread back into the region on modest
southeasterly low level winds with fairly widespread fog according
to observations around the region.  Since cloud cover is pretty
thick, think the instance of dense fog, that is 1/4 mile or less
visibility, will not be widespread over the area, so will forego
issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory, for now.  Will utilize social
media for locations that may dip to very low visibility for the
time being.

An extensive fetch of mid and upper level moisture ahead of an ua
trough extending from south central Canada to northern Baja will
continue to spread over the region today, and with a shortwave
trough or two embedded, result in a few showers, but mainly over
west and northwestern parts of the area.  Despite the cloud cover,
and some precipitation chances, think we will finally realize some
milder temperatures areawide.  As the RRQ of a 170kt moves over the
region tonight, and another shortwave trough translates over the
region, we could see showers, if not a few thunderstorms overnight.
The resultant cloud cover, and increase in lower level moisture,
will likely keep low temperatures on the mild side tonight, but
unfortunately, this will not last as the next cold front will move
into the area Wednesday morning.

The said cold front will slice southwestward into the area Wednesday
morning, with a fairly stark drop in temperature behind it.  High
temperatures will occur early tomorrow over the northern Permian
Basin, with temperatures cooling back below normal all the way to
the Pecos River by Wednesday evening.  The latest models are all
over the place with the frontal timing, and since the mentioned ua
trough has not moved over the region yet, they are all over the
place with precipitation type behind the front too.  It does appear
the cold air deepens fairly rapidly behind the front.  Model
soundings, for what they`re worth, indicate a warm layer of air
around 775mb early on, but this erodes pretty quickly, especially
over the northern Permian Basin where surface temperatures drop to
freezing or below first.  Therefore, have opted to go with more of a
mix of sleet and snow than freezing rain.  The changeover looks to
occur during the day Wednesday, with mainly snow north of Interstate
20 by early evening.  The best moisture appears to be east of the
region by then, so expect snowfall amounts will be an inch or less.
Precipitation could change to sleet or snow south of Interstate 10
late tonight, but again, amounts do not appear to be great.  Will
highlight all of this in a Special Weather Statement since it
appears wintry precip amounts will not be great.  Temperatures will
begin to modify Thursday and Friday.  We`ll see how this pans out,
but there does appear to be one difference this go around, it looks
like we will have some sun as early as Thursday to aid the warmup.
Will keep the forecast dry through the extended as only a weak ua
trough is indicated west of the region during that time.  High
temperatures could be right around normal Sunday through next
Tuesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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330
FXUS64 KMAF 031423
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
823 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.UPDATE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS.  HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 18Z BUT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL A LITTLE EARLY.  UPDATED
PRODUCTS ON THERE WAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Mainly IFR conditions are expected in low ceilings and or fog
through mid to late morning. VFR conditions are expected
to develop areawide by late morning and continue this afternoon
through this evening. A TEMPO or PROB30 group for VFR conditions
in showers was placed in the TAFS late this afternoon and this
evening.

12


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A complicated forecast today including, the good riddance of an
arctic airmass, fog this morning, rain chances today and tonight,
the arrival of the next arctic airmass, wintry precipitation chances
Wednesday and Wednesday night, possible high winds through Guadalupe
Pass Wednesday night, and lastly, how long will this next arctic
airmass reside over the region?  Currently, the last vestiges of the
mentioned arctic airmass appear to be on the way out of the area as
surface pressure falls continue to mount ahead of a surface trough
developing south through eastern New Mexico early this morning.  Low
level moisture is beginning to spread back into the region on modest
southeasterly low level winds with fairly widespread fog according
to observations around the region.  Since cloud cover is pretty
thick, think the instance of dense fog, that is 1/4 mile or less
visibility, will not be widespread over the area, so will forego
issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory, for now.  Will utilize social
media for locations that may dip to very low visibility for the
time being.

An extensive fetch of mid and upper level moisture ahead of an ua
trough extending from south central Canada to northern Baja will
continue to spread over the region today, and with a shortwave
trough or two embedded, result in a few showers, but mainly over
west and northwestern parts of the area.  Despite the cloud cover,
and some precipitation chances, think we will finally realize some
milder temperatures areawide.  As the RRQ of a 170kt moves over the
region tonight, and another shortwave trough translates over the
region, we could see showers, if not a few thunderstorms overnight.
The resultant cloud cover, and increase in lower level moisture,
will likely keep low temperatures on the mild side tonight, but
unfortunately, this will not last as the next cold front will move
into the area Wednesday morning.

The said cold front will slice southwestward into the area Wednesday
morning, with a fairly stark drop in temperature behind it.  High
temperatures will occur early tomorrow over the northern Permian
Basin, with temperatures cooling back below normal all the way to
the Pecos River by Wednesday evening.  The latest models are all
over the place with the frontal timing, and since the mentioned ua
trough has not moved over the region yet, they are all over the
place with precipitation type behind the front too.  It does appear
the cold air deepens fairly rapidly behind the front.  Model
soundings, for what they`re worth, indicate a warm layer of air
around 775mb early on, but this erodes pretty quickly, especially
over the northern Permian Basin where surface temperatures drop to
freezing or below first.  Therefore, have opted to go with more of a
mix of sleet and snow than freezing rain.  The changeover looks to
occur during the day Wednesday, with mainly snow north of Interstate
20 by early evening.  The best moisture appears to be east of the
region by then, so expect snowfall amounts will be an inch or less.
Precipitation could change to sleet or snow south of Interstate 10
late tonight, but again, amounts do not appear to be great.  Will
highlight all of this in a Special Weather Statement since it
appears wintry precip amounts will not be great.  Temperatures will
begin to modify Thursday and Friday.  We`ll see how this pans out,
but there does appear to be one difference this go around, it looks
like we will have some sun as early as Thursday to aid the warmup.
Will keep the forecast dry through the extended as only a weak ua
trough is indicated west of the region during that time.  High
temperatures could be right around normal Sunday through next
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 69  47  48  22  /  20  50  50  30
BIG SPRING TX              69  48  48  22  /  10  40  50  30
CARLSBAD NM                70  46  54  25  /  20  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  70  54  66  31  /   0  30  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  50  55  23  /  10  50  40  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  43  47  18  /  30  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                   65  43  47  19  /  20  30  40  30
MARFA TX                   66  42  58  25  /  20  40  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    71  50  50  23  /  10  50  50  30
ODESSA TX                  70  50  50  22  /  20  50  40  30
WINK TX                    69  50  53  26  /  20  50  40  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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261
FXUS64 KMAF 031146
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
546 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly IFR conditions are expected in low ceilings and or fog
through mid to late morning. VFR conditions are expected
to develop areawide by late morning and continue this afternoon
through this evening. A TEMPO or PROB30 group for VFR conditions
in showers was placed in the TAFS late this afternoon and this
evening.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A complicated forecast today including, the good riddance of an
arctic airmass, fog this morning, rain chances today and tonight,
the arrival of the next arctic airmass, wintry precipitation chances
Wednesday and Wednesday night, possible high winds through Guadalupe
Pass Wednesday night, and lastly, how long will this next arctic
airmass reside over the region?  Currently, the last vestiges of the
mentioned arctic airmass appear to be on the way out of the area as
surface pressure falls continue to mount ahead of a surface trough
developing south through eastern New Mexico early this morning.  Low
level moisture is beginning to spread back into the region on modest
southeasterly low level winds with fairly widespread fog according
to observations around the region.  Since cloud cover is pretty
thick, think the instance of dense fog, that is 1/4 mile or less
visibility, will not be widespread over the area, so will forego
issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory, for now.  Will utilize social
media for locations that may dip to very low visibility for the
time being.

An extensive fetch of mid and upper level moisture ahead of an ua
trough extending from south central Canada to northern Baja will
continue to spread over the region today, and with a shortwave
trough or two embedded, result in a few showers, but mainly over
west and northwestern parts of the area.  Despite the cloud cover,
and some precipitation chances, think we will finally realize some
milder temperatures areawide.  As the RRQ of a 170kt moves over the
region tonight, and another shortwave trough translates over the
region, we could see showers, if not a few thunderstorms overnight.
The resultant cloud cover, and increase in lower level moisture,
will likely keep low temperatures on the mild side tonight, but
unfortunately, this will not last as the next cold front will move
into the area Wednesday morning.

The said cold front will slice southwestward into the area Wednesday
morning, with a fairly stark drop in temperature behind it.  High
temperatures will occur early tomorrow over the northern Permian
Basin, with temperatures cooling back below normal all the way to
the Pecos River by Wednesday evening.  The latest models are all
over the place with the frontal timing, and since the mentioned ua
trough has not moved over the region yet, they are all over the
place with precipitation type behind the front too.  It does appear
the cold air deepens fairly rapidly behind the front.  Model
soundings, for what they`re worth, indicate a warm layer of air
around 775mb early on, but this erodes pretty quickly, especially
over the northern Permian Basin where surface temperatures drop to
freezing or below first.  Therefore, have opted to go with more of a
mix of sleet and snow than freezing rain.  The changeover looks to
occur during the day Wednesday, with mainly snow north of Interstate
20 by early evening.  The best moisture appears to be east of the
region by then, so expect snowfall amounts will be an inch or less.
Precipitation could change to sleet or snow south of Interstate 10
late tonight, but again, amounts do not appear to be great.  Will
highlight all of this in a Special Weather Statement since it
appears wintry precip amounts will not be great.  Temperatures will
begin to modify Thursday and Friday.  We`ll see how this pans out,
but there does appear to be one difference this go around, it looks
like we will have some sun as early as Thursday to aid the warmup.
Will keep the forecast dry through the extended as only a weak ua
trough is indicated west of the region during that time.  High
temperatures could be right around normal Sunday through next
Tuesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12

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990
FXUS64 KMAF 031028
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
428 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A complicated forecast today including, the good riddance of an
arctic airmass, fog this morning, rain chances today and tonight,
the arrival of the next arctic airmass, wintry precipitation chances
Wednesday and Wednesday night, possible high winds through Guadalupe
Pass Wednesday night, and lastly, how long will this next arctic
airmass reside over the region?  Currently, the last vestiges of the
mentioned arctic airmass appear to be on the way out of the area as
surface pressure falls continue to mount ahead of a surface trough
developing south through eastern New Mexico early this morning.  Low
level moisture is beginning to spread back into the region on modest
southeasterly low level winds with fairly widespread fog according
to observations around the region.  Since cloud cover is pretty
thick, think the instance of dense fog, that is 1/4 mile or less
visibility, will not be widespread over the area, so will forego
issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory, for now.  Will utilize social
media for locations that may dip to very low visibility for the
time being.

An extensive fetch of mid and upper level moisture ahead of an ua
trough extending from south central Canada to northern Baja will
continue to spread over the region today, and with a shortwave
trough or two embedded, result in a few showers, but mainly over
west and northwestern parts of the area.  Despite the cloud cover,
and some precipitation chances, think we will finally realize some
milder temperatures areawide.  As the RRQ of a 170kt moves over the
region tonight, and another shortwave trough translates over the
region, we could see showers, if not a few thunderstorms overnight.
The resultant cloud cover, and increase in lower level moisture,
will likely keep low temperatures on the mild side tonight, but
unfortunately, this will not last as the next cold front will move
into the area Wednesday morning.

The said cold front will slice southwestward into the area Wednesday
morning, with a fairly stark drop in temperature behind it.  High
temperatures will occur early tomorrow over the northern Permian
Basin, with temperatures cooling back below normal all the way to
the Pecos River by Wednesday evening.  The latest models are all
over the place with the frontal timing, and since the mentioned ua
trough has not moved over the region yet, they are all over the
place with precipitation type behind the front too.  It does appear
the cold air deepens fairly rapidly behind the front.  Model
soundings, for what they`re worth, indicate a warm layer of air
around 775mb early on, but this erodes pretty quickly, especially
over the northern Permian Basin where surface temperatures drop to
freezing or below first.  Therefore, have opted to go with more of a
mix of sleet and snow than freezing rain.  The changeover looks to
occur during the day Wednesday, with mainly snow north of Interstate
20 by early evening.  The best moisture appears to be east of the
region by then, so expect snowfall amounts will be an inch or less.
Precipitation could change to sleet or snow south of Interstate 10
late tonight, but again, amounts do not appear to be great.  Will
highlight all of this in a Special Weather Statement since it
appears wintry precip amounts will not be great.  Temperatures will
begin to modify Thursday and Friday.  We`ll see how this pans out,
but there does appear to be one difference this go around, it looks
like we will have some sun as early as Thursday to aid the warmup.
Will keep the forecast dry through the extended as only a weak ua
trough is indicated west of the region during that time.  High
temperatures could be right around normal Sunday through next
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 69  47  48  22  /  20  50  50  30
BIG SPRING TX              69  48  48  22  /  10  40  50  30
CARLSBAD NM                70  46  54  25  /  20  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  70  54  66  31  /   0  30  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  50  55  23  /  10  50  40  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  43  47  18  /  30  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                   65  43  47  19  /  20  30  40  30
MARFA TX                   66  42  58  25  /  20  40  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    71  50  50  23  /  10  50  50  30
ODESSA TX                  70  50  50  22  /  20  50  40  30
WINK TX                    69  50  53  26  /  20  50  40  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/67

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656
FXUS64 KMAF 030530 CCA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1124 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
FG has settled in at MAF and looks to be here thru the night,
elsewhere FG/BR is slower to develop, but will eventually. As such
we have brought CIGS/VSBY down to at least IFR MAF/HOB and MVFR
elsewhere. SW winds will develop in low levels and clear out the
CIGS and VSBY mid morning, but mid clouds will hang around. Also
PROB30 -SHRA has been introduced in last 4-6hrs of fcst.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 843 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015/

UPDATE...
Ran a quick forecast update to increase PoPs over western zones
through 12Z where a deep plume of subtropical moisture continues
to stream over the region. Light radar echoes indicating maybe
some very light showers across these areas and to the west look to
continue overnight. IR satellite shows cooler cloud tops to the SW
of the Rio Grande moving toward these areas therefore continuing
light rain through early morning. Otherwise, the remainder of the
forecast package looks to be on track and no other changes were
needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Visible satellite show wrn edge of low clouds from CNM to PEQ to FST
are slowly lifting and may temporarily break. Meanwhile IFR CIGS are
at MAF/CNM/PEQ with MVFR vsby at MAF attm. 00Z MAF sounding shows
little change in moisture depth and seems to be little chance that
clouds will break here. Concern for the night is how low will
CIGS/VSBY go. Models have done terrible job last few days and will
continue with more of persistence forecast noting that T/Td spread
are a little greater than previous 24hrs indicating development of
lower vsby may be delayed a few hrs. Based on better established
low level w-sw flow Tue low clouds will break tmw, but after 15Z.
However it will still be mostly cloudy with IR satellite showing
extensive mid clouds. Precip will probably hold off the w thru
00Z/Wed but may not be too far from CNM/PEQ.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Fog and low clouds have once again held in place keeping
temperatures well below normal across the area. Fortunately most
locations have risen above freezing, and with the help of
increasing southerly flow temperatures should continue to climb
eliminating the threat for freezing fog and any ice accumulation.

I know we keep saying this, but tomorrow we should finally see a
significant warm up with temperatures reaching into the 60s.
Models suggest temperatures could be even warmer but mostly cloudy
skies may limit daytime heating. An upper level low will move east
into Mexico and combined with a right entrance jet region over
west Texas will provide enough instability for scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms to develop Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Temperatures will be warm enough for all precipitation to remain
liquid.

Wednesday will be a different story as the next strong cold front
arrives. High temperatures will be seen east of the Pecos River
Wednesday morning and steadily fall through the afternoon and
night while highs west of the Pecos will be seen closer to their
normal diurnal time. Temperatures behind the front will quickly
fall below freezing meaning precipitation will change from rain,
to freezing rain/sleet/snow as the surface cold pool deepens and
the elevated warm layer erodes throughout the day. The best chance
for precipitation will be immediately behind the front where
isentropic lift will be greatest, then will diminish overnight as
low level lift diminishes and the upper jet moves east. The
biggest threat right now appears to be ice accumulation from
freezing rain and sleet making roads hazardous.

Thursday will be the coldest day with a slow warming trend
expected Friday into the weekend. The main forecast concern for
the weekend will be the speed of an upper ridge over the western
U.S. Current models show this feature to be slow moving which
could delay the warm southerly return flow and prolong cold
temperatures currently forecast.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 35  66  41  43  /   0  10  30  40
BIG SPRING TX              38  68  43  43  /  10  10  30  50
CARLSBAD NM                39  66  39  50  /  20  10  10  30
DRYDEN TX                  43  69  48  61  /  10   0  20  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  72  46  53  /  10  10  40  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          39  57  37  48  /  30  20  20  30
HOBBS NM                   36  62  37  41  /  10  10  10  40
MARFA TX                   39  65  40  56  /  10  30  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    36  68  43  46  /  10  10  30  40
ODESSA TX                  36  67  44  47  /   0  10  30  40
WINK TX                    39  69  43  51  /  10  10  30  40

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/99

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941
FXUS64 KMAF 030524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1124 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours continues to be low
cigs/vis affecting terminals overnight and Monday morning. Currently
looking at IFR/LIFR flight conditions at all but CNM this evening,
however CNM should drop to LIFR a bit later. Poor flight conditions
will continue through Monday morning and possibly into early
afternoon. Could see vis 1/2-1/4SM at times, particularly at
HOB/MAF/FST but for now will only carry 1-2SM attm. Initially
thought temperatures would hold above freezing overnight but HOB and
MAF are currently sitting at 32. Will hold off on including mention
of FZFG for now, but will continue to monitor trends and amend if
temps decrease further. Otherwise, conditions may finally improve at
most sites Monday afternoon.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 843 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015/

UPDATE...
Ran a quick forecast update to increase PoPs over western zones
through 12Z where a deep plume of subtropical moisture continues
to stream over the region. Light radar echoes indicating maybe
some very light showers across these areas and to the west look to
continue overnight. IR satellite shows cooler cloud tops to the SW
of the Rio Grande moving toward these areas therefore continuing
light rain through early morning. Otherwise, the remainder of the
forecast package looks to be on track and no other changes were
needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Visible satellite show wrn edge of low clouds from CNM to PEQ to FST
are slowly lifting and may temporarily break. Meanwhile IFR CIGS are
at MAF/CNM/PEQ with MVFR vsby at MAF attm. 00Z MAF sounding shows
little change in moisture depth and seems to be little chance that
clouds will break here. Concern for the night is how low will
CIGS/VSBY go. Models have done terrible job last few days and will
continue with more of persistence forecast noting that T/Td spread
are a little greater than previous 24hrs indicating development of
lower vsby may be delayed a few hrs. Based on better established
low level w-sw flow Tue low clouds will break tmw, but after 15Z.
However it will still be mostly cloudy with IR satellite showing
extensive mid clouds. Precip will probably hold off the w thru
00Z/Wed but may not be too far from CNM/PEQ.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Fog and low clouds have once again held in place keeping
temperatures well below normal across the area. Fortunately most
locations have risen above freezing, and with the help of
increasing southerly flow temperatures should continue to climb
eliminating the threat for freezing fog and any ice accumulation.

I know we keep saying this, but tomorrow we should finally see a
significant warm up with temperatures reaching into the 60s.
Models suggest temperatures could be even warmer but mostly cloudy
skies may limit daytime heating. An upper level low will move east
into Mexico and combined with a right entrance jet region over
west Texas will provide enough instability for scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms to develop Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Temperatures will be warm enough for all precipitation to remain
liquid.

Wednesday will be a different story as the next strong cold front
arrives. High temperatures will be seen east of the Pecos River
Wednesday morning and steadily fall through the afternoon and
night while highs west of the Pecos will be seen closer to their
normal diurnal time. Temperatures behind the front will quickly
fall below freezing meaning precipitation will change from rain,
to freezing rain/sleet/snow as the surface cold pool deepens and
the elevated warm layer erodes throughout the day. The best chance
for precipitation will be immediately behind the front where
isentropic lift will be greatest, then will diminish overnight as
low level lift diminishes and the upper jet moves east. The
biggest threat right now appears to be ice accumulation from
freezing rain and sleet making roads hazardous.

Thursday will be the coldest day with a slow warming trend
expected Friday into the weekend. The main forecast concern for
the weekend will be the speed of an upper ridge over the western
U.S. Current models show this feature to be slow moving which
could delay the warm southerly return flow and prolong cold
temperatures currently forecast.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 35  66  41  43  /   0  10  30  40
BIG SPRING TX              38  68  43  43  /  10  10  30  50
CARLSBAD NM                39  66  39  50  /  20  10  10  30
DRYDEN TX                  43  69  48  61  /  10   0  20  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  72  46  53  /  10  10  40  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          39  57  37  48  /  30  20  20  30
HOBBS NM                   36  62  37  41  /  10  10  10  40
MARFA TX                   39  65  40  56  /  10  30  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    36  68  43  46  /  10  10  30  40
ODESSA TX                  36  67  44  47  /   0  10  30  40
WINK TX                    39  69  43  51  /  10  10  30  40

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/99

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028
FXUS64 KMAF 030243
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
843 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.UPDATE...
Ran a quick forecast update to increase PoPs over western zones
through 12Z where a deep plume of subtropical moisture continues
to stream over the region. Light radar echoes indicating maybe
some very light showers across these areas and to the west look to
continue overnight. IR satellite shows cooler cloud tops to the SW
of the Rio Grande moving toward these areas therefore continuing
light rain through early morning. Otherwise, the remainder of the
forecast package looks to be on track and no other changes were
needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Visible satellite show wrn edge of low clouds from CNM to PEQ to FST
are slowly lifting and may temporarily break. Meanwhile IFR CIGS are
at MAF/CNM/PEQ with MVFR vsby at MAF attm. 00Z MAF sounding shows
little change in moisture depth and seems to be little chance that
clouds will break here. Concern for the night is how low will
CIGS/VSBY go. Models have done terrible job last few days and will
continue with more of persistence forecast noting that T/Td spread
are a little greater than previous 24hrs indicating development of
lower vsby may be delayed a few hrs. Based on better established
low level w-sw flow Tue low clouds will break tmw, but after 15Z.
However it will still be mostly cloudy with IR satellite showing
extensive mid clouds. Precip will probably hold off the w thru
00Z/Wed but may not be too far from CNM/PEQ.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Fog and low clouds have once again held in place keeping
temperatures well below normal across the area. Fortunately most
locations have risen above freezing, and with the help of
increasing southerly flow temperatures should continue to climb
eliminating the threat for freezing fog and any ice accumulation.

I know we keep saying this, but tomorrow we should finally see a
significant warm up with temperatures reaching into the 60s.
Models suggest temperatures could be even warmer but mostly cloudy
skies may limit daytime heating. An upper level low will move east
into Mexico and combined with a right entrance jet region over
west Texas will provide enough instability for scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms to develop Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Temperatures will be warm enough for all precipitation to remain
liquid.

Wednesday will be a different story as the next strong cold front
arrives. High temperatures will be seen east of the Pecos River
Wednesday morning and steadily fall through the afternoon and
night while highs west of the Pecos will be seen closer to their
normal diurnal time. Temperatures behind the front will quickly
fall below freezing meaning precipitation will change from rain,
to freezing rain/sleet/snow as the surface cold pool deepens and
the elevated warm layer erodes throughout the day. The best chance
for precipitation will be immediately behind the front where
isentropic lift will be greatest, then will diminish overnight as
low level lift diminishes and the upper jet moves east. The
biggest threat right now appears to be ice accumulation from
freezing rain and sleet making roads hazardous.

Thursday will be the coldest day with a slow warming trend
expected Friday into the weekend. The main forecast concern for
the weekend will be the speed of an upper ridge over the western
U.S. Current models show this feature to be slow moving which
could delay the warm southerly return flow and prolong cold
temperatures currently forecast.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 35  66  41  43  /   0  10  30  40
BIG SPRING TX              38  68  43  43  /  10  10  30  50
CARLSBAD NM                39  66  39  50  /  20  10  10  30
DRYDEN TX                  43  69  48  61  /  10   0  20  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  72  46  53  /  10  10  40  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          39  57  37  48  /  30  20  20  30
HOBBS NM                   36  62  37  41  /  10  10  10  40
MARFA TX                   39  65  40  56  /  10  30  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    36  68  43  46  /  10  10  30  40
ODESSA TX                  36  67  44  47  /   0  10  30  40
WINK TX                    39  69  43  51  /  10  10  30  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/99

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440
FXUS64 KMAF 022347
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
547 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Visible satellite show wrn edge of low clouds from CNM to PEQ to FST
are slowly lifting and may temporarily break. Meanwhile IFR CIGS are
at MAF/CNM/PEQ with MVFR vsby at MAF attm. 00Z MAF sounding shows
little change in moisture depth and seems to be little chance that
clouds will break here. Concern for the night is how low will
CIGS/VSBY go. Models have done terrible job last few days and will
continue with more of persistence forecast noting that T/Td spread
are a little greater than previous 24hrs indicating development of
lower vsby may be delayed a few hrs. Based on better established
low level w-sw flow Tue low clouds will break tmw, but after 15Z.
However it will still be mostly cloudy with IR satellite showing
extensive mid clouds. Precip will probably hold off the w thru
00Z/Wed but may not be too far from CNM/PEQ.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Fog and low clouds have once again held in place keeping
temperatures well below normal across the area. Fortunately most
locations have risen above freezing, and with the help of
increasing southerly flow temperatures should continue to climb
eliminating the threat for freezing fog and any ice accumulation.

I know we keep saying this, but tomorrow we should finally see a
significant warm up with temperatures reaching into the 60s.
Models suggest temperatures could be even warmer but mostly cloudy
skies may limit daytime heating. An upper level low will move east
into Mexico and combined with a right entrance jet region over
west Texas will provide enough instability for scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms to develop Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Temperatures will be warm enough for all precipitation to remain
liquid.

Wednesday will be a different story as the next strong cold front
arrives. High temperatures will be seen east of the Pecos River
Wednesday morning and steadily fall through the afternoon and
night while highs west of the Pecos will be seen closer to their
normal diurnal time. Temperatures behind the front will quickly
fall below freezing meaning precipitation will change from rain,
to freezing rain/sleet/snow as the surface cold pool deepens and
the elevated warm layer erodes throughout the day. The best chance
for precipitation will be immediately behind the front where
isentropic lift will be greatest, then will diminish overnight as
low level lift diminishes and the upper jet moves east. The
biggest threat right now appears to be ice accumulation from
freezing rain and sleet making roads hazardous.

Thursday will be the coldest day with a slow warming trend
expected Friday into the weekend. The main forecast concern for
the weekend will be the speed of an upper ridge over the western
U.S. Current models show this feature to be slow moving which
could delay the warm southerly return flow and prolong cold
temperatures currently forecast.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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http://weather.gov/midland
109
FXUS64 KMAF 022057
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
257 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Fog and low clouds have once again held in place keeping
temperatures well below normal across the area. Fortunately most
locations have risen above freezing, and with the help of
increasing southerly flow temperatures should continue to climb
eliminating the threat for freezing fog and any ice accumulation.

I know we keep saying this, but tomorrow we should finally see a
significant warm up with temperatures reaching into the 60s.
Models suggest temperatures could be even warmer but mostly cloudy
skies may limit daytime heating. An upper level low will move east
into Mexico and combined with a right entrance jet region over
west Texas will provide enough instability for scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms to develop Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Temperatures will be warm enough for all precipitation to remain
liquid.

Wednesday will be a different story as the next strong cold front
arrives. High temperatures will be seen east of the Pecos River
Wednesday morning and steadily fall through the afternoon and
night while highs west of the Pecos will be seen closer to their
normal diurnal time. Temperatures behind the front will quickly
fall below freezing meaning precipitation will change from rain,
to freezing rain/sleet/snow as the surface cold pool deepens and
the elevated warm layer erodes throughout the day. The best chance
for precipitation will be immediately behind the front where
isentropic lift will be greatest, then will diminish overnight as
low level lift diminishes and the upper jet moves east. The
biggest threat right now appears to be ice accumulation from
freezing rain and sleet making roads hazardous.

Thursday will be the coldest day with a slow warming trend
expected Friday into the weekend. The main forecast concern for
the weekend will be the speed of an upper ridge over the western
U.S. Current models show this feature to be slow moving which
could delay the warm southerly return flow and prolong cold
temperatures currently forecast.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 38  66  41  43  /  10  10  30  40
BIG SPRING TX              39  68  43  43  /  10  10  30  50
CARLSBAD NM                39  66  39  50  /  10  10  10  30
DRYDEN TX                  43  69  48  61  /  10   0  20  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           43  72  46  53  /  10  10  40  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          46  57  37  48  /  20  20  20  30
HOBBS NM                   36  62  37  41  /  10  10  10  40
MARFA TX                   39  65  40  56  /  10  30  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    40  68  43  46  /  10  10  30  40
ODESSA TX                  40  67  44  47  /  10  10  30  40
WINK TX                    39  69  43  51  /  10  10  30  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/10

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459
FXUS64 KMAF 021735
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1135 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.UPDATE...

Updating forecast to lower high temps across SE NM and the Permian
Basin once again for this afternoon. No breaks in the clouds are
expected and our warming trend will be very slow.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
Same story different day. LIFR cigs are once again locked in
across the area with clear skies just to the west of the terminals.
However...like previous days the models have not done well with
the clouds and fog and try to erode it too quickly. Will opt to
keep conditions MVFR or lower through Tuesday morning.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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506
FXUS64 KMAF 021131
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
526 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings and visibilities are expected to last through this
morning with gradual improvement around 18z.  Fog and freezing fog
are also possible this morning.  VFR conditions should return to the
area by 22z.  There is a possibility of low ceilings and
visibilities after 00z for some of the terminals.  Winds will remain
fairly light throughout the period and will become easterly then
southeasterly by 00z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Pessimism and persistence rule, as much of West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico remain socked in w/stratus and fog.  Current sfc obs show
this backed up against the mtns, w/widespread FZFG over much of the
Permian Basin and Wrn Low Rolling Plains.  However, w/temps only
near freezing (as opposed to well-blo the last few days), we`ll
continue to handle these hazards in the HWO and with an SPS.  Over
the past few days, models have been way too optimistic in scattering
things out by late morning/early afternoon, yet this has not panned
out.  Although sfc flow will veer to SE later today, we`re not
betting on things improving appreciably, and so have stuck to the
lower end of guidance on temps.  Sfc winds will continue veering to
SW overnight as a sfc trough over CO moves out into the Central
Plains.  An upper trough making landfall on SoCal will begin sending
disturbances thru SW flow aloft as soon as tonight, favoring
isolated -SHRA omtns out west.

Tuesday, w/SW flow at the sfc, a downslope warming component and
decreasing clouds should allow temps to warm to above normal for the
first time in awhile.  However, some high clouds will still be
present and, w/all the precip of the past few days and saturated
soils, warming will be retarded somewhat.  Therefore, we again
prefer to stay on the lower end of guidance temps.  Meanwhile, the
west coast trough will dig down to Baja, open, and move thru Sonora
towards the region.  Ahead of this feature, a sfc trough and
shortwave will move thru West Texas Tuesday night, w/forecast
soundings showing enough moisture/instability down south for a
mention of isolated thunder.

Wednesday, winter returns as a strong cold front moves thru the
area.  The GFS is fastest, w/fropa at KMAF at around 14Z, followed
by the NAM at 18Z, and the ECMWF after.  Using a blend, temps will
drop throughout the day in the NE, w/a normal diurnal curve down by
the Rio Grande.  As the front moves SW, overrunning will commence as
winds begin to veer, w/a changeover to winter precip in the NE
beginning as soon as 18Z Wednesday.  Unfortunately, this far out,
models are in big disagreement over several factor which will
determine type/extent of the winter precip.  For one, as noted
above, models differ on timing of the front, and also on strength.
But the biggest difference is vertical saturation of the column.
The NAM soundings portray rather shallow moisture, favoring a
rain/freezing rain scenario, whereas the GFS saturates the column
deeply and well through the dendritic growth zones, favoring
sleet/snow.  This far out, we`ll not get too specific yet, as models
will/should come more in agreement as the event
nears.

Otherwise, this should taper off over the SW zones Thursday, w/a
slow warmup thru Sunday, but temps should stay blo normal in dry, NW
flow aloft.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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395
FXUS64 KMAF 021110
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
510 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Pessimism and persistence rule, as much of West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico remain socked in w/stratus and fog.  Current sfc obs show
this backed up against the mtns, w/widespread FZFG over much of the
Permian Basin and Wrn Low Rolling Plains.  However, w/temps only
near freezing (as opposed to well-blo the last few days), we`ll
continue to handle these hazards in the HWO and with an SPS.  Over
the past few days, models have been way too optimistic in scattering
things out by late morning/early afternoon, yet this has not panned
out.  Although sfc flow will veer to SE later today, we`re not
betting on things improving appreciably, and so have stuck to the
lower end of guidance on temps.  Sfc winds will continue veering to
SW overnight as a sfc trough over CO moves out into the Central
Plains.  An upper trough making landfall on SoCal will begin sending
disturbances thru SW flow aloft as soon as tonight, favoring
isolated -SHRA omtns out west.

Tuesday, w/SW flow at the sfc, a downslope warming component and
decreasing clouds should allow temps to warm to above normal for the
first time in awhile.  However, some high clouds will still be
present and, w/all the precip of the past few days and saturated
soils, warming will be retarded somewhat.  Therefore, we again
prefer to stay on the lower end of guidance temps.  Meanwhile, the
west coast trough will dig down to Baja, open, and move thru Sonora
towards the region.  Ahead of this feature, a sfc trough and
shortwave will move thru West Texas Tuesday night, w/forecast
soundings showing enough moisture/instability down south for a
mention of isolated thunder.

Wednesday, winter returns as a strong cold front moves thru the
area.  The GFS is fastest, w/fropa at KMAF at around 14Z, followed
by the NAM at 18Z, and the ECMWF after.  Using a blend, temps will
drop throughout the day in the NE, w/a normal diurnal curve down by
the Rio Grande.  As the front moves SW, overrunning will commence as
winds begin to veer, w/a changeover to winter precip in the NE
beginning as soon as 18Z Wednesday.  Unfortunately, this far out,
models are in big disagreement over several factor which will
determine type/extent of the winter precip.  For one, as noted
above, models differ on timing of the front, and also on strength.
But the biggest difference is vertical saturation of the column.
The NAM soundings portray rather shallow moisture, favoring a
rain/freezing rain scenario, whereas the GFS saturates the column
deeply and well through the dendritic growth zones, favoring
sleet/snow.  This far out, we`ll not get too specific yet, as models
will/should come more in agreement as the event
nears.

Otherwise, this should taper off over the SW zones Thursday, w/a
slow warmup thru Sunday, but temps should stay blo normal in dry, NW
flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 45  38  69  43  /  10  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              42  41  69  44  /  10  10  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                48  39  70  42  /  10  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  51  43  71  51  /  10  10  10  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           50  43  72  47  /  10  10  10  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          52  46  59  42  /  10  10  20  30
HOBBS NM                   45  36  63  39  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   69  39  66  38  /  10  10  10  60
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    45  40  70  44  /  10  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                  46  40  68  44  /  10  10  10  30
WINK TX                    50  39  72  44  /  10  10  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/44

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420
FXUS64 KMAF 020523
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1122 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours continues to be low
cigs/vis affecting terminals overnight and Monday morning. Currently
looking at IFR/LIFR flight conditions at all but CNM this evening,
however CNM should drop to LIFR a bit later. Poor flight conditions
will continue through Monday morning and possibly into early
afternoon. Could see vis 1/2-1/4SM at times, particularly at
HOB/MAF/FST but for now will only carry 1-2SM attm. Initially
thought temperatures would hold above freezing overnight but HOB and
MAF are currently sitting at 32. Will hold off on including mention
of FZFG for now, but will continue to monitor trends and amend if
temps decrease further. Otherwise, conditions may finally improve at
most sites Monday afternoon.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Low clouds have persisted throughout the day.  This is not
surprising considering the difficulties associated with scouring out
shallow cold air masses.  As a general rule, it is usually necessary
to see surface pressure falls north of the area along with a wind
shift to more a southeast to south component before we see
decreasing cloud cover and warming temperatures.  The computer
models usually try to move the cold air out earlier than it should,
resulting in the forecast being too warm.

Only in the last couple hours have we seen surface pressure falls
north of the area.  This is way too late in the day to be of much
help for the central and eastern portions of the CWA.  However, we
can see on visible satellite were southeast New Mexico and the Upper
Trans Pecos are seeing decreasing clouds.  These areas should see a
late afternoon warmup.  Other areas of southwest Texas have enjoyed
plenty of sunshine today with Marfa being lucky enough to warm into
the lower 70s.

This evening and overnight, we should see surface high pressure
build back into areas east of the mountains. We would expect to
see redevelopment of fog over a large area along an east of the
mountains. Locations over the north and northeast portions of the
CWA will remain below freezing overnight, so freezing fog is
included for those areas. Also, the northeast half of the Texas
Permian Basin could see some light rain or freezing rain overnight
with little if any accumulation expected. We have opted to issue an
SPS instead of going with another Winter Weather Advisory as impacts
are expected to be less than in previous days.

Monday appears to be another day similar to today.  It will take
some time to scour out the cold air, perhaps less time than today.
So while we might be a little warmer than today, we have opted to
go on the low end of temperature guidance.

As the surface ridge finally moves east of the area on Tuesday, it
is replaced in this progressive pattern with surface low pressure
over the Central Plains.  This should lead to a rather marked warmup
on Tuesday with temperatures climbing into the 60s and 70s across
the area with downslope southwest to west surface winds forecast
across the area.  We really don`t get rid of our mid level moisture
ahead of the next upper level system located just west of Baja at
that time.  Thus, we still have a shot at precipitation on Tuesday,
especially during the evening and overnight early Wednesday.  Most
unstable CAPE values Tuesday evening over southwest Texas are on the
order of 500 J/KG.  While not an overwhelming value, we can`t rule
out the possibility of a thunderstorm during that time period.

Another cold front is expected to make its way into the area on
Wednesday morning. The NAM is noticeable slower in moving this
front into area as opposed to the GFS. However, regardless of
model, we eventually seem poised for another winter weather event
on Wednesday. While not yet indicated in the forecast, it is
likely that temperatures will fall throughout the day on
Wednesday with snow possible across a good portion of the area. As
the models come closer into alignment the next couple days, it
will become more clear as to what Wednesday`s weather has to
offer.

While a gradual warmup is expected Thursday into next weekend, below
normal temperatures are still expected.  It appears that winter
still has somewhat of a hold on the area.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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752
FXUS64 KMAF 012342
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
542 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs/vis
once again overnight into Monday morning. Generally have MVFR/IFR
flight conditions at all but CNM this evening, where brief VFR
conditions should return to MVFR by 02/06Z. Conditions will continue
to deteriorate over the next several hours and most terminals can
expect LIFR while FST and PEQ (being on the western edge of the low
level moisture) may hold at IFR. It is quite possible that conditions
will deteriorate faster than currently anticipated so will continue
to monitor trends and amend if needed. Could see vis as low as 1/4SM
at times, particularly at HOB and MAF but for now will only carry
1/2SM at these locations. Temperatures are expected to hold above
freezing overnight, therefore FZFG is not a concern. Otherwise,
conditions may finally improve to VFR at most sites Monday
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Low clouds have persisted throughout the day.  This is not
surprising considering the difficulties associated with scouring out
shallow cold air masses.  As a general rule, it is usually necessary
to see surface pressure falls north of the area along with a wind
shift to more a southeast to south component before we see
decreasing cloud cover and warming temperatures.  The computer
models usually try to move the cold air out earlier than it should,
resulting in the forecast being too warm.

Only in the last couple hours have we seen surface pressure falls
north of the area.  This is way too late in the day to be of much
help for the central and eastern portions of the CWA.  However, we
can see on visible satellite were southeast New Mexico and the Upper
Trans Pecos are seeing decreasing clouds.  These areas should see a
late afternoon warmup.  Other areas of southwest Texas have enjoyed
plenty of sunshine today with Marfa being lucky enough to warm into
the lower 70s.

This evening and overnight, we should see surface high pressure
build back into areas east of the mountains. We would expect to
see redevelopment of fog over a large area along an east of the
mountains. Locations over the north and northeast portions of the
CWA will remain below freezing overnight, so freezing fog is
included for those areas. Also, the northeast half of the Texas
Permian Basin could see some light rain or freezing rain overnight
with little if any accumulation expected. We have opted to issue
an SPS instead of going with another Winter Weather Advisory as impacts
are expected to be less than in previous days.

Monday appears to be another day similar to today.  It will take
some time to scour out the cold air, perhaps less time than today.
So while we might be a little warmer than today, we have opted to
go on the low end of temperature guidance.

As the surface ridge finally moves east of the area on Tuesday, it
is replaced in this progressive pattern with surface low pressure
over the Central Plains.  This should lead to a rather marked warmup
on Tuesday with temperatures climbing into the 60s and 70s across
the area with downslope southwest to west surface winds forecast
across the area.  We really don`t get rid of our mid level moisture
ahead of the next upper level system located just west of Baja at
that time.  Thus, we still have a shot at precipitation on Tuesday,
especially during the evening and overnight early Wednesday.  Most
unstable CAPE values Tuesday evening over southwest Texas are on the
order of 500 J/KG.  While not an overwhelming value, we can`t rule
out the possibility of a thunderstorm during that time period.

Another cold front is expected to make its way into the area on
Wednesday morning. The NAM is noticeable slower in moving this
front into area as opposed to the GFS. However, regardless of
model, we eventually seem poised for another winter weather event
on Wednesday. While not yet indicated in the forecast, it is
likely that temperatures will fall throughout the day on
Wednesday with snow possible across a good portion of the area. As
the models come closer into alignment the next couple days, it
will become more clear as to what Wednesday`s weather has to
offer.

While a gradual warmup is expected Thursday into next weekend, below
normal temperatures are still expected.  It appears that winter
still has somewhat of a hold on the area.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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763
FXUS64 KMAF 012124
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
324 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Low clouds have persisted throughout the day.  This is not
surprising considering the difficulties associated with scouring out
shallow cold air masses.  As a general rule, it is usually necessary
to see surface pressure falls north of the area along with a wind
shift to more a southeast to south component before we see
decreasing cloud cover and warming temperatures.  The computer
models usually try to move the cold air out earlier than it should,
resulting in the forecast being too warm.

Only in the last couple hours have we seen surface pressure falls
north of the area.  This is way too late in the day to be of much
help for the central and eastern portions of the CWA.  However, we
can see on visible satellite were southeast New Mexico and the Upper
Trans Pecos are seeing decreasing clouds.  These areas should see a
late afternoon warmup.  Other areas of southwest Texas have enjoyed
plenty of sunshine today with Marfa being lucky enough to warm into
the lower 70s.

This evening and overnight, we should see surface high pressure
build back into areas east of the mountains. We would expect to
see redevelopment of fog over a large area along an east of the
mountains. Locations over the north and northeast portions of the
CWA will remain below freezing overnight, so freezing fog is
included for those areas. Also, the northeast half of the Texas
Permian Basin could see some light rain or freezing rain overnight
with little if any accumulation expected. We have opted to issue
an SPS instead of going with another Winter Weather Advisory as impacts
are expected to be less than in previous days.

Monday appears to be another day similar to today.  It will take
some time to scour out the cold air, perhaps less time than today.
So while we might be a little warmer than today, we have opted to
go on the low end of temperature guidance.

As the surface ridge finally moves east of the area on Tuesday, it
is replaced in this progressive pattern with surface low pressure
over the Central Plains.  This should lead to a rather marked warmup
on Tuesday with temperatures climbing into the 60s and 70s across
the area with downslope southwest to west surface winds forecast
across the area.  We really don`t get rid of our mid level moisture
ahead of the next upper level system located just west of Baja at
that time.  Thus, we still have a shot at precipitation on Tuesday,
especially during the evening and overnight early Wednesday.  Most
unstable CAPE values Tuesday evening over southwest Texas are on the
order of 500 J/KG.  While not an overwhelming value, we can`t rule
out the possibility of a thunderstorm during that time period.

Another cold front is expected to make its way into the area on
Wednesday morning. The NAM is noticeable slower in moving this
front into area as opposed to the GFS. However, regardless of
model, we eventually seem poised for another winter weather event
on Wednesday. While not yet indicated in the forecast, it is
likely that temperatures will fall throughout the day on
Wednesday with snow possible across a good portion of the area. As
the models come closer into alignment the next couple days, it
will become more clear as to what Wednesday`s weather has to
offer.

While a gradual warmup is expected Thursday into next weekend, below
normal temperatures are still expected.  It appears that winter
still has somewhat of a hold on the area.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 35  45  39  69  /  20  20  20   0
BIG SPRING TX              34  41  41  73  /  20  20  20   0
CARLSBAD NM                40  53  44  71  /  10  10  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  46  55  47  76  /  10  10  20   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           43  53  48  76  /  10  10  20   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          36  52  43  61  /  10  10  30  20
HOBBS NM                   35  43  38  65  /  20  20  20   0
MARFA TX                   34  69  40  69  /   0   0  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    38  43  41  73  /  20  20  20   0
ODESSA TX                  37  47  43  71  /  10  10  20   0
WINK TX                    45  52  40  74  /  10  10  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/03

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239
FXUS64 KMAF 011736
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1136 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
Difficult TAF forecast once again today. Low clouds and fog
continue to hang in tough and don`t expect much change again today
except along the western edge of the clouds. KCNM and KFST may see
brief improvement before low clouds and fog spread back to the west
this evening. Will keep IFR and LIFR conditions prevailing through
this TAF period with cigs lowering and fog increasing this evening.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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260
FXUS64 KMAF 011117
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
517 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Another night in the soup, w/sfc obs showing LIFR conditions all
terminals except KPEQ, which is IFR at the moment.  Skies were slow
to improve over the last 24 hrs, if at all, a/the models doing a
poor job handling this.  Models want to scatter things out to VFR a
little too optimistically.  W/sfc flow backing slightly over the
next 24 hours, this is doubtful.  Cigs should improve somewhat
today...but we`ll keep all terminals at least MVFR or lower.
Stratus/fog redevelops after sunset, returning conditions to
IFR/LIFR most terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures this morning are at or below freezing for most
locations across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico.  Skies
remain cloudy with light freezing drizzle and patchy freezing fog
across the area.  A Winter Weather Advisory continues until 9 am
this morning for the far eastern Permian Basin and Western Low
Rolling Plains.  The drizzle and fog are expected to clear out by
this afternoon.  Temperatures are expected to warm up slightly today
but will still remain well below normal with cloudy skies across at
least the eastern 2/3rds of the CWA.  The models did not handle
yesterday`s high temperatures well so went below guidance on today`s
highs for at least the eastern half of the CWA.

An upper trough is just off the coast of California with the upper
flow being westerly to southwesterly.  The upper trough will get
closer to the region allowing upper lift to increase.  Low level
moisture will also increase across the area tonight so rain chances
will increase tonight.  There is a slight chance of freezing rain
and sleet across the northern Permian Basin and portions of
southeast New Mexico tonight into Monday morning as temperatures
across this area drop to near or below freezing.  High temperatures
on Monday are expected to increase slightly from those the previous
day but will still remain cool as skies will be cloudy with a chance
of rain in the afternoon.  Temperatures will warm up significantly
on Tuesday as a surface trough develops across the area with
elevated westerly winds contributing to downslope warming.  There is
a slight chance of rain for locations generally along and west of
the Upper Trans Pecos on Tuesday.  The elongated upper trough will
be about to move over the area on Wednesday with a cold front
pushing through the area.  Temperatures will once again plummet into
the 30s and 40s for the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico
behind the front.  Precipitation chances will increase across the
CWA on Wednesday with snow possible across the northeast Permian
Basin, rain possible further south, and thunderstorms possible
across the Big Bend area and Presidio Valley.  Precipitation amounts
on the GFS and ECMWF Wednesday afternoon look to be quite
impressive, especially along and south of the Pecos River.
Precipitation is expected to decrease in coverage and move southward
on Thursday as temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s across the
whole CWA.  Warmer and drier conditions are expected heading into
next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Borden...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...
     Reagan...Scurry.


&&

$$

44

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124
FXUS64 KMAF 011115
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
514 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures this morning are at or below freezing for most
locations across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico.  Skies
remain cloudy with light freezing drizzle and patchy freezing fog
across the area.  A Winter Weather Advisory continues until 9 am
this morning for the far eastern Permian Basin and Western Low
Rolling Plains.  The drizzle and fog are expected to clear out by
this afternoon.  Temperatures are expected to warm up slightly today
but will still remain well below normal with cloudy skies across at
least the eastern 2/3rds of the CWA.  The models did not handle
yesterday`s high temperatures well so went below guidance on today`s
highs for at least the eastern half of the CWA.

An upper trough is just off the coast of California with the upper
flow being westerly to southwesterly.  The upper trough will get
closer to the region allowing upper lift to increase.  Low level
moisture will also increase across the area tonight so rain chances
will increase tonight.  There is a slight chance of freezing rain
and sleet across the northern Permian Basin and portions of
southeast New Mexico tonight into Monday morning as temperatures
across this area drop to near or below freezing.  High temperatures
on Monday are expected to increase slightly from those the previous
day but will still remain cool as skies will be cloudy with a chance
of rain in the afternoon.  Temperatures will warm up significantly
on Tuesday as a surface trough develops across the area with
elevated westerly winds contributing to downslope warming.  There is
a slight chance of rain for locations generally along and west of
the Upper Trans Pecos on Tuesday.  The elongated upper trough will
be about to move over the area on Wednesday with a cold front
pushing through the area.  Temperatures will once again plummet into
the 30s and 40s for the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico
behind the front.  Precipitation chances will increase across the
CWA on Wednesday with snow possible across the northeast Permian
Basin, rain possible further south, and thunderstorms possible
across the Big Bend area and Presidio Valley.  Precipitation amounts
on the GFS and ECMWF Wednesday afternoon look to be quite
impressive, especially along and south of the Pecos River.
Precipitation is expected to decrease in coverage and move southward
on Thursday as temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s across the
whole CWA.  Warmer and drier conditions are expected heading into
next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 39  34  46  39  /   0  20  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              38  32  45  40  /  10  30  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                61  38  55  44  /   0  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  62  46  58  50  /   0  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  37  55  47  /   0  20  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          62  38  58  43  /   0  20  20  30
HOBBS NM                   40  33  46  38  /   0  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   71  34  68  40  /   0  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    40  34  46  40  /  10  20  30  20
ODESSA TX                  41  34  46  40  /  10  20  30  20
WINK TX                    52  36  52  40  /   0  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Borden...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...
     Reagan...Scurry.


&&

$$

44/80

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721
FXUS64 KMAF 010513
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1113 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs/vis
likely affecting all terminals through Sunday morning as well as
FZFG affecting some locations through morning. Generally have
IFR/LIFR flight conditions across the board tonight with light
easterly winds in place. Low level moisture will remain in place
through morning with deteriorating cig/vis likely over the next
several hours. Could see vis as low as 1/4SM at times, particularly
at HOB and MAF. Dense fog with freezing temps in place in addition
to some possible -FZDZ will likely result in icing problems for both
planes and runways overnight. Have included mention of FZFG at HOB
and MAF while other terminals may remain too warm. Otherwise,
conditions are finally expected to improve to VFR Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/

UPDATE...
We have updated the forecast to extend WSW for Lea County and most
the PB, except the west.

DISCUSSION...
Models are struggling hard with the cold shallow airmass and are
generally way too way warm, at least in most of the areas where
the advisory has been extended. 00Z MAF sounding indicates
saturated conditions in cold air thru 85h, with abrupt drying
above 85h. Vsby has been decreasing since 3 PM at MAF and Andrews
observation is now reporting FZDZ/FZFG with vsby 1/2SM.
Accordingly so, based mainly on persistence and short-term trends, we
decided to extended winter wx advisory in said areas.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs/vis
likely affecting all terminals through much of the TAF period and
possible -FZDZ/FZFG through the morning hours. Generally have
IFR/LIFR flight conditions at all but INK and FST where conditions
have briefly improved to MVFR over the last hour or two. INK/FST
will return to IFR/LIFR respectively by 03-04Z. Low level moisture
will remain in place now through much of Sunday morning with
deteriorating cig/vis overnight. May have been too conservative with
vis and some places could see <1/2SM at times early Sunday morning.
Regardless, dense fog with freezing temps in place in addition to
some possible -FZDZ could result in icing problems for both planes
and runways overnight. For now, will keep mention of freezing precip
out of the TAF and amend if needed. Otherwise, conditions are
finally expected to improve to VFR Sunday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Cold air, low clouds and areas of freezing drizzle and freezing
fog are stubbornly hanging in across mainly portions of the plains
of southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Expecting the lower clouds
to continue tonight in these areas with slowly rising temperatures
due to the surface high slowly pushing off to the east. With
residual snow cover, it still appears that temperatures will stay
at or below freezing across the extreme western low rolling plains
and extreme eastern Permian Basin. In addition forecast soundings
are indicating that moisture should remain deep enough for areas
of freezing drizzle to continue. Will continue the Winter Weather
Advisory overnight through mid Sunday morning for the aforementioned
area as a result. Further west across the central and western
Permian Basin and Lea county New Mexico temperatures will either
rise above freezing and or the moisture depth will not be enough
for significant ice accumulations. For these areas will expire the
Winter Weather Advisory at 6 pm cst, but issue a Special Weather
Statement for overnight and mention the lighter accumulations
expected.

For Sunday will lower high temperatures considerably especially
across the plains based on the new NAM and ECMWF guidance
indicating another surge of cooler air invading from the northeast.
The cooler air will continue to push southwest into the forecast
area Sunday night and Monday. Precipitation chances will increase
again as the upper level flow backs ahead of the next Pacific
system with isentropic lift developing. Surface temperatures
may be cold enough to support a chance of freezing rain
Sunday night and early Monday across the northern Permian Basin
and Lea county New Mexico. By Monday afternoon and Monday night
temperatures should be warm enough for all liquid across west
Texas and southeast New Mexico.

Precipitation chances will continue across a good chunk of
the forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday as the aforementioned
system approaches. Yet another surge of colder air is expected
by Wednesday with some light snow possible. The precipitation
could continue (some snow) into Thursday if the slower ECMWF is
correct.

Beyond next Thursday guidance handles the upper level low
differently so kept dry for now with slowly moderating
temperatures.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 AM MST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...Reagan...
     Scurry.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 4 AM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Martin...Midland...Upton.


&&

$$

44

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199
FXUS64 KMAF 010011 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
611 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...
We have updated the forecast to extend WSW for Lea County and most
the PB, except the west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models are struggling hard with the cold shallow airmass and are
generally way too way warm, at least in most of the areas where
the advisory has been extended. 00Z MAF sounding indicates
saturated conditions in cold air thru 85h, with abrupt drying
above 85h. Vsby has been decreasing since 3 PM at MAF and Andrews
observation is now reporting FZDZ/FZFG with vsby 1/2SM.
Accordingly so, based mainly on persistence and short-term trends, we
decided to extended winter wx advisory in said areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs/vis
likely affecting all terminals through much of the TAF period and
possible -FZDZ/FZFG through the morning hours. Generally have
IFR/LIFR flight conditions at all but INK and FST where conditions
have briefly improved to MVFR over the last hour or two. INK/FST
will return to IFR/LIFR respectively by 03-04Z. Low level moisture
will remain in place now through much of Sunday morning with
deteriorating cig/vis overnight. May have been too conservative with
vis and some places could see <1/2SM at times early Sunday morning.
Regardless, dense fog with freezing temps in place in addition to
some possible -FZDZ could result in icing problems for both planes
and runways overnight. For now, will keep mention of freezing precip
out of the TAF and amend if needed. Otherwise, conditions are
finally expected to improve to VFR Sunday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Cold air, low clouds and areas of freezing drizzle and freezing
fog are stubbornly hanging in across mainly portions of the plains
of southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Expecting the lower clouds
to continue tonight in these areas with slowly rising temperatures
due to the surface high slowly pushing off to the east. With
residual snow cover, it still appears that temperatures will stay
at or below freezing across the extreme western low rolling plains
and extreme eastern Permian Basin. In addition forecast soundings
are indicating that moisture should remain deep enough for areas
of freezing drizzle to continue. Will continue the Winter Weather
Advisory overnight through mid Sunday morning for the aforementioned
area as a result. Further west across the central and western
Permian Basin and Lea county New Mexico temperatures will either
rise above freezing and or the moisture depth will not be enough
for significant ice accumulations. For these areas will expire the
Winter Weather Advisory at 6 pm cst, but issue a Special Weather
Statement for overnight and mention the lighter accumulations
expected.

For Sunday will lower high temperatures considerably especially
across the plains based on the new NAM and ECMWF guidance
indicating another surge of cooler air invading from the northeast.
The cooler air will continue to push southwest into the forecast
area Sunday night and Monday. Precipitation chances will increase
again as the upper level flow backs ahead of the next Pacific
system with isentropic lift developing. Surface temperatures
may be cold enough to support a chance of freezing rain
Sunday night and early Monday across the northern Permian Basin
and Lea county New Mexico. By Monday afternoon and Monday night
temperatures should be warm enough for all liquid across west
Texas and southeast New Mexico.

Precipitation chances will continue across a good chunk of
the forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday as the aforementioned
system approaches. Yet another surge of colder air is expected
by Wednesday with some light snow possible. The precipitation
could continue (some snow) into Thursday if the slower ECMWF is
correct.

Beyond next Thursday guidance handles the upper level low
differently so kept dry for now with slowly moderating
temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 30  57  30  46  /  10   0  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              30  53  31  46  /  10  10  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                32  62  34  56  /  10   0  20  30
DRYDEN TX                  34  61  41  58  /  10   0  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           31  66  37  54  /  10   0  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          39  60  34  58  /  10   0  20  20
HOBBS NM                   28  55  31  44  /  10   0  30  30
MARFA TX                   28  71  33  68  /  10   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    31  59  34  48  /  10   0  30  30
ODESSA TX                  31  54  34  48  /  10   0  30  30
WINK TX                    34  63  36  54  /  10   0  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 AM MST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...Reagan...
     Scurry.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 4 AM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Martin...Midland...Upton.


&&

$$

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323
FXUS64 KMAF 282346
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
546 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs/vis
likely affecting all terminals through much of the TAF period and
possible -FZDZ/FZFG through the morning hours. Generally have
IFR/LIFR flight conditions at all but INK and FST where conditions
have briefly improved to MVFR over the last hour or two. INK/FST
will return to IFR/LIFR respectively by 03-04Z. Low level moisture
will remain in place now through much of Sunday morning with
deteriorating cig/vis overnight. May have been too conservative with
vis and some places could see <1/2SM at times early Sunday morning.
Regardless, dense fog with freezing temps in place in addition to
some possible -FZDZ could result in icing problems for both planes
and runways overnight. For now, will keep mention of freezing precip
out of the TAF and amend if needed. Otherwise, conditions are
finally expected to improve to VFR Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Cold air, low clouds and areas of freezing drizzle and freezing
fog are stubbornly hanging in across mainly portions of the plains
of southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Expecting the lower clouds
to continue tonight in these areas with slowly rising temperatures
due to the surface high slowly pushing off to the east. With
residual snow cover, it still appears that temperatures will stay
at or below freezing across the extreme western low rolling plains
and extreme eastern Permian Basin. In addition forecast soundings
are indicating that moisture should remain deep enough for areas
of freezing drizzle to continue. Will continue the Winter Weather
Advisory overnight through mid Sunday morning for the aforementioned
area as a result. Further west across the central and western
Permian Basin and Lea county New Mexico temperatures will either
rise above freezing and or the moisture depth will not be enough
for significant ice accumulations. For these areas will expire the
Winter Weather Advisory at 6 pm cst, but issue a Special Weather
Statement for overnight and mention the lighter accumulations
expected.

For Sunday will lower high temperatures considerably especially
across the plains based on the new NAM and ECMWF guidance
indicating another surge of cooler air invading from the northeast.
The cooler air will continue to push southwest into the forecast
area Sunday night and Monday. Precipitation chances will increase
again as the upper level flow backs ahead of the next Pacific
system with isentropic lift developing. Surface temperatures
may be cold enough to support a chance of freezing rain
Sunday night and early Monday across the northern Permian Basin
and Lea county New Mexico. By Monday afternoon and Monday night
temperatures should be warm enough for all liquid across west
texas and southeast New Mexico.

Precipitation chances will continue across a good chunk of
the forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday as the aforementioned
system approaches. Yet another surge of colder air is expected
by Wednesday with some light snow possible. The precipitation
could continue (some snow) into Thursday if the slower ECMWF is
correct.

Beyond next Thursday guidance handles the upper level low
differently so kept dry for now with slowly moderating
temperatures.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...Reagan...
     Scurry.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Loving...Martin...
     Midland...Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

27

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171
FXUS64 KMAF 282105
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
305 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Cold air, low clouds and areas of freezing drizzle and freezing
fog are stubbornly hanging in across mainly portions of the plains
of southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Expecting the lower clouds
to continue tonight in these areas with slowly rising temperatures
due to the surface high slowly pushing off to the east. With
residual snow cover, it still appears that temperatures will stay
at or below freezing across the extreme western low rolling plains
and extreme eastern Permian Basin. In addition forecast soundings
are indicating that moisture should remain deep enough for areas
of freezing drizzle to continue. Will continue the Winter Weather
Advisory overnight through mid Sunday morning for the aforementioned
area as a result. Further west across the central and western
Permian Basin and Lea county New Mexico temperatures will either
rise above freezing and or the moisture depth will not be enough
for significant ice accumulations. For these areas will expire the
Winter Weather Advisory at 6 pm cst, but issue a Special Weather
Statement for overnight and mention the lighter accumulations
expected.

For Sunday will lower high temperatures considerably especially
across the plains based on the new NAM and ECMWF guidance
indicating another surge of cooler air invading from the northeast.
The cooler air will continue to push southwest into the forecast
area Sunday night and Monday. Precipitation chances will increase
again as the upper level flow backs ahead of the next Pacific
system with isentropic lift developing. Surface temperatures
may be cold enough to support a chance of freezing rain
Sunday night and early Monday across the northern Permian Basin
and Lea county New Mexico. By Monday afternoon and Monday night
temperatures should be warm enough for all liquid across west
texas and southeast New Mexico.

Precipitation chances will continue across a good chunk of
the forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday as the aforementioned
system approaches. Yet another surge of colder air is expected
by Wednesday with some light snow possible. The precipitation
could continue (some snow) into Thursday if the slower ECMWF is
correct.

Beyond next Thursday guidance handles the upper level low
differently so kept dry for now with slowly moderating
temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 30  57  30  46  /  10   0  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              30  53  31  46  /  10  10  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                32  62  34  56  /  10   0  20  30
DRYDEN TX                  34  61  41  58  /  10   0  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           31  66  37  54  /  10   0  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          39  60  34  58  /  10   0  20  20
HOBBS NM                   28  55  31  44  /  10   0  30  30
MARFA TX                   28  71  33  68  /  10   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    31  59  34  48  /  10   0  30  30
ODESSA TX                  31  54  34  48  /  10   0  30  30
WINK TX                    34  63  36  54  /  10   0  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...Reagan...
     Scurry.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Loving...Martin...
     Midland...Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

29/12

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185
FXUS64 KMAF 281720
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1120 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
Freezing drizzle and fog continue across most of the region with
IFR and LIFR conditions. Some improvement is expected this
afternoon, but conditions will again deteriorate this evening as
low clouds and fog redevelop. IFR and LIFR cigs are expected with
vsbys possible below 3SM at times. Conditions should improve
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

29

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540
FXUS64 KMAF 281532
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
932 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...

Updating the forecast to lower high temperatures back into the
20`s and 30`s for most areas this afternoon. Clouds and heavy
freezing drizzle look to hang on most of the day for the Permian
Basin and SE NM which should keep temps from moving too much. Will
also extend the Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST as travel
condition will continue to be hazardous.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

Current sfc obs show stratus and fog socked in this AM, w/all
terminals under IFR and VLIFR conditions.  Area radars show heavier
precip remains north of the area...in the form of snow...whereas
closer to home...clouds are not cold enough.  Instead, a walk
outside confirms a freezing mizzle that radar is not picking up.
Models bring this to an end by 18Z, w/skies scattering out to VFR in
the 18-22Z time frame as sfc flow veers to SE.  However,
redevelopment is likely again overnight.  Buffer soundings try to
develop VLIFR cigs, but this is likely too pessimistic, and we`ll go
no lower than LIFR attm.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures in the teens and twenties are across the area this
morning under cloudy skies.  Wintry precipitation is to the north of
the CWA and appears like it will remain to the north of the area.
There is a chance for freezing drizzle and fog this morning across
the area so a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through this
morning for southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, and the Trans Pecos area.  Areas of drizzle and
freezing drizzle will remain possible across the far eastern CWA
through tonight.  Temperatures are expected to warm up today as 850
mb temperatures warm but temperatures will still remain well below
normal values.

An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California by Sunday with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly.  Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as 850 mb temperatures warm and the clouds
decrease in coverage.  On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area.  Showers may
develop starting Sunday night as a result of the increase in lift.
High temperatures on Monday are not expected to be quite as warm due
to an increase in cloud cover and cooler temperatures aloft.
Temperatures will warm up on Tuesday as a surface trough develops
across the area with elevated westerly winds contributing to
downslope warming.  There is a slight chance of rain across the
Guadalupe Mountains and the Van Horn area as the upper trough gets
closer to the region.  The upper trough will begin passing over the
area on Wednesday with a slight chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms beginning Tuesday night.  The models are showing a
cold front associated with the upper trough moving into the area on
Wednesday.  Temperatures are expected to cool to below normal
Wednesday and Thursday behind the front before gradually warming
back up on Friday.  There is a slight chance of snow developing
Wednesday night behind the front across parts of southeast New
Mexico, the northwest Permian Basin, and into the Guadalupe
Mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 30  30  66  37  /  30  10   0  20
BIG SPRING TX              30  30  64  37  /  30  10  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                33  33  68  43  /  20  10   0  20
DRYDEN TX                  45  42  70  53  /  20  10   0  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           30  30  71  46  /  20  10   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          41  39  65  40  /  20  10   0  20
HOBBS NM                   28  28  65  37  /  20  10   0  20
MARFA TX                   60  28  72  36  /  20  10   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    31  31  67  39  /  30  10   0  20
ODESSA TX                  31  31  67  40  /  30  10   0  20
WINK TX                    34  34  69  42  /  20  10   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

29/99

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184
FXUS64 KMAF 281058
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
458 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Current sfc obs show stratus and fog socked in this AM, w/all
terminals under IFR and VLIFR conditions.  Area radars show heavier
precip remains north of the area...in the form of snow...whereas
closer to home...clouds are not cold enough.  Instead, a walk
outside confirms a freezing mizzle that radar is not picking up.
Models bring this to an end by 18Z, w/skies scattering out to VFR in
the 18-22Z time frame as sfc flow veers to SE.  However,
redevelopment is likely again overnight.  Buffer soundings try to
develop VLIFR cigs, but this is likely too pessimistic, and we`ll go
no lower than LIFR attm.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures in the teens and twenties are across the area this
morning under cloudy skies.  Wintry precipitation is to the north of
the CWA and appears like it will remain to the north of the area.
There is a chance for freezing drizzle and fog this morning across
the area so a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through this
morning for southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, and the Trans Pecos area.  Areas of drizzle and
freezing drizzle will remain possible across the far eastern CWA
through tonight.  Temperatures are expected to warm up today as 850
mb temperatures warm but temperatures will still remain well below
normal values.

An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California by Sunday with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly.  Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as 850 mb temperatures warm and the clouds
decrease in coverage.  On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area.  Showers may
develop starting Sunday night as a result of the increase in lift.
High temperatures on Monday are not expected to be quite as warm due
to an increase in cloud cover and cooler temperatures aloft.
Temperatures will warm up on Tuesday as a surface trough develops
across the area with elevated westerly winds contributing to
downslope warming.  There is a slight chance of rain across the
Guadalupe Mountains and the Van Horn area as the upper trough gets
closer to the region.  The upper trough will begin passing over the
area on Wednesday with a slight chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms beginning Tuesday night.  The models are showing a
cold front associated with the upper trough moving into the area on
Wednesday.  Temperatures are expected to cool to below normal
Wednesday and Thursday behind the front before gradually warming
back up on Friday.  There is a slight chance of snow developing
Wednesday night behind the front across parts of southeast New
Mexico, the northwest Permian Basin, and into the Guadalupe
Mountains.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST /11 AM MST/ today FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

44

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956
FXUS64 KMAF 281052
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
450 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures in the teens and twenties are across the area this
morning under cloudy skies.  Wintry precipitation is to the north of
the CWA and appears like it will remain to the north of the area.
There is a chance for freezing drizzle and fog this morning across
the area so a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through this
morning for southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, and the Trans Pecos area.  Areas of drizzle and
freezing drizzle will remain possible across the far eastern CWA
through tonight.  Temperatures are expected to warm up today as 850
mb temperatures warm but temperatures will still remain well below
normal values.

An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California by Sunday with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly.  Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as 850 mb temperatures warm and the clouds
decrease in coverage.  On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area.  Showers may
develop starting Sunday night as a result of the increase in lift.
High temperatures on Monday are not expected to be quite as warm due
to an increase in cloud cover and cooler temperatures aloft.
Temperatures will warm up on Tuesday as a surface trough develops
across the area with elevated westerly winds contributing to
downslope warming.  There is a slight chance of rain across the
Guadalupe Mountains and the Van Horn area as the upper trough gets
closer to the region.  The upper trough will begin passing over the
area on Wednesday with a slight chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms beginning Tuesday night.  The models are showing a
cold front associated with the upper trough moving into the area on
Wednesday.  Temperatures are expected to cool to below normal
Wednesday and Thursday behind the front before gradually warming
back up on Friday.  There is a slight chance of snow developing
Wednesday night behind the front across parts of southeast New
Mexico, the northwest Permian Basin, and into the Guadalupe
Mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 41  36  66  37  /  30  10   0  20
BIG SPRING TX              42  36  64  37  /  30  10  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                51  33  68  43  /  20  10   0  20
DRYDEN TX                  51  42  70  53  /  20  10   0  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  38  71  46  /  20  10   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  39  65  40  /  20  10   0  20
HOBBS NM                   40  34  65  37  /  20  10   0  20
MARFA TX                   62  28  72  36  /  20  10   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    44  38  67  39  /  30  10   0  20
ODESSA TX                  45  39  67  40  /  30  10   0  20
WINK TX                    51  37  69  42  /  20  10   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST /11 AM MST/ today FOR
THE      FOLLOWING ZONES...
Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache      Mountains
Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...     Guadalupe
Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

44/80

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991
FXUS64 KMAF 280521
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1121 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs/vis
likely affecting all terminals through much of the TAF period with
-FZDZ through early morning. Generally have IFR/LIFR flight
conditions at all but CNM where MVFR continues this evening however
this should be short-lived and CNM is expected to join the others
soon. Although non of the surface obs around the region are
currently reporting -FZDZ, local radar suggests otherwise. Will
continue mention of at least periods of -FZDZ through at least
mid/late morning Saturday which will likely result in slick runways
during this time. Will continue to monitor current trends and
amend if/when needed. Otherwise, conditions will improve to MVFR and
eventually VFR Saturday afternoon. E winds around 12kt tonight will
veer to the SE Saturday morning and become somewhat gusty at FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

UPDATE...
Overnight lows have been lowered generally from mountains
eastward. Sleet removed all areas. Areas of freezing drizzle and
fog have been expanded to include mountain areas.

DISCUSSION...
The 00Z sounding showed boundary layer running somewhat cooler
than NAM BUFR soundings forecast at MAF. Surface temperatures have
also failed to warm up late this afternoon, leaving actual
temperatures below the overnight lows previously forecast across
much of the area. Though warm air advection will increase
overnight with a modest low level jet, warmer temperatures aloft
will have trouble mixing down to the surface. Expecting temperatures
to hold nearly stead through evening or possibly dropping slightly
followed by a slight warm up after midnight. Also appears that
sleet is not likely with no instability or source of significant
lift.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE... THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL BE LOW CIGS/VIS LIKELY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
AT ALL BUT FST WHERE LIFR CONTINUES THIS EVENING. LOOKS AS THOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH -FZDZ AND LIFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS BY 28/06Z.
EXPECT PERIODS OF -FZDZ TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SLICK RUNWAYS DURING THIS TIME AS TEMPS
REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MID-DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CURRENT TRENDS AND AMEND IF/WHEN NEEDED. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. E WINDS AROUND 12KT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND
VEER TO THE SE SATURDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS THAT AFFECTED OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.  HOWEVER, RADAR AND HOURLY OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS.

ROAD CONDITIONS WERE CERTAINLY AFFECTED EARLIER TODAY BY SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS FELL IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LEA COUNTY WHERE 4 TO
6 INCHES OF SNOW FELL. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PERMIAN
BASIN REPORTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING.

EVEN WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW MOVING EAST OF THE AREA, THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING INTO THE TOMORROW MORNING REMAINS QUITE
DIFFICULT.  BOTH THE CANADIAN AND NAM MODELS SHOW VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS A LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CWA, GENERALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.  THE GFS ALSO INDICATES OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION,
PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  HOWEVER, THE GFS
IS HAVING SOME REAL STRUGGLES HANDLING THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
THUS, HAVE TRENDED OUR FORECAST TOWARDS THE NAM AND CANADIAN MODELS.

A WARM LATER AROUND 750 MB IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.  AS THIS OCCURS, WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT
SNOW TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.  IN ADDITION, AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.

THIS SETS UP FOR AN INTERESTING SITUATION.  WHILE WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE, THERE IS CERTAINLY
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT WILL AFFECT BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.  IN ADDITION, THE LOSS OF SUN ANGLE WILL REFREEZE SOME
WET ROADWAYS ACROSS THE AREA.  THUS, WHILE NOT MEETING FORMAL
THRESHOLDS FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WE BELIEVE THE IMPACT
WARRANTS ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING UNTIL NOON CST TOMORROW.

WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE A WARMUP BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
WE FINALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE 40S.  SUNDAY TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR ON WEDNESDAY.  EVEN WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA, IT WILL NOT BE NEAR AS COLD AS WHAT WE ARE
EXPERIENCING NOW.  FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Saturday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST /11 AM MST/ Saturday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...
     Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

44

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306
FXUS64 KMAF 280137
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
737 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Overnight lows have been lowered generally from mountains
eastward. Sleet removed all areas. Areas of freezing drizzle and
fog have been expanded to include mountain areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 00Z sounding showed boundary layer running somewhat cooler
than NAM BUFR soundings forecast at MAF. Surface temperatures have
also failed to warm up late this afternoon, leaving actual
temperatures below the overnight lows previously forecast across
much of the area. Though warm air advection will increase
overnight with a modest low level jet, warmer temperatures aloft
will have trouble mixing down to the surface. Expecting temperatures
to hold nearly stead through evening or possibly dropping slightly
followed by a slight warm up after midnight. Also appears that
sleet is not likely with no instability or source of significant
lift.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE... THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL BE LOW CIGS/VIS LIKELY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
AT ALL BUT FST WHERE LIFR CONTINUES THIS EVENING. LOOKS AS THOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH -FZDZ AND LIFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS BY 28/06Z.
EXPECT PERIODS OF -FZDZ TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SLICK RUNWAYS DURING THIS TIME AS TEMPS
REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MID-DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CURRENT TRENDS AND AMEND IF/WHEN NEEDED. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. E WINDS AROUND 12KT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND
VEER TO THE SE SATURDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS THAT AFFECTED OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.  HOWEVER, RADAR AND HOURLY OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS.

ROAD CONDITIONS WERE CERTAINLY AFFECTED EARLIER TODAY BY SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS FELL IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LEA COUNTY WHERE 4 TO
6 INCHES OF SNOW FELL. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PERMIAN
BASIN REPORTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING.

EVEN WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW MOVING EAST OF THE AREA, THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING INTO THE TOMORROW MORNING REMAINS QUITE
DIFFICULT.  BOTH THE CANADIAN AND NAM MODELS SHOW VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS A LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CWA, GENERALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.  THE GFS ALSO INDICATES OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION,
PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  HOWEVER, THE GFS
IS HAVING SOME REAL STRUGGLES HANDLING THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
THUS, HAVE TRENDED OUR FORECAST TOWARDS THE NAM AND CANADIAN MODELS.

A WARM LATER AROUND 750 MB IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.  AS THIS OCCURS, WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT
SNOW TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.  IN ADDITION, AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.

THIS SETS UP FOR AN INTERESTING SITUATION.  WHILE WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE, THERE IS CERTAINLY
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT WILL AFFECT BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.  IN ADDITION, THE LOSS OF SUN ANGLE WILL REFREEZE SOME
WET ROADWAYS ACROSS THE AREA.  THUS, WHILE NOT MEETING FORMAL
THRESHOLDS FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WE BELIEVE THE IMPACT
WARRANTS ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING UNTIL NOON CST TOMORROW.

WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE A WARMUP BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
WE FINALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE 40S.  SUNDAY TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR ON WEDNESDAY.  EVEN WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA, IT WILL NOT BE NEAR AS COLD AS WHAT WE ARE
EXPERIENCING NOW.  FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 17  44  38  68  /  30  30  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              20  43  42  69  /  30  30  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                24  53  34  69  /  20  20  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  33  52  42  74  /  20  20  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           24  57  41  73  /  20  20  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          18  54  41  65  /  20  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   18  45  33  68  /  20  20  10   0
MARFA TX                   24  63  30  73  /  20  20  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    19  45  43  68  /  30  30  20  10
ODESSA TX                  19  47  43  67  /  30  30  10   0
WINK TX                    22  53  38  69  /  20  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Saturday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST /11 AM MST/ Saturday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...
     Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

05/27

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157
FXUS64 KMAF 272352 CCA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
551 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE... THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL BE LOW CIGS/VIS LIKELY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
AT ALL BUT FST WHERE LIFR CONTINUES THIS EVENING. LOOKS AS THOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH -FZDZ AND LIFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS BY 28/06Z.
EXPECT PERIODS OF -FZDZ TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SLICK RUNWAYS DURING THIS TIME AS TEMPS
REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MID-DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CURRENT TRENDS AND AMEND IF/WHEN NEEDED. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. E WINDS AROUND 12KT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND
VEER TO THE SE SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS THAT AFFECTED OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.  HOWEVER, RADAR AND HOURLY OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS.

ROAD CONDITIONS WERE CERTAINLY AFFECTED EARLIER TODAY BY SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS FELL IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LEA COUNTY WHERE 4 TO
6 INCHES OF SNOW FELL. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PERMIAN
BASIN REPORTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING.

EVEN WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW MOVING EAST OF THE AREA, THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING INTO THE TOMORROW MORNING REMAINS QUITE
DIFFICULT.  BOTH THE CANADIAN AND NAM MODELS SHOW VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS A LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CWA, GENERALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.  THE GFS ALSO INDICATES OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION,
PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  HOWEVER, THE GFS
IS HAVING SOME REAL STRUGGLES HANDLING THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
THUS, HAVE TRENDED OUR FORECAST TOWARDS THE NAM AND CANADIAN MODELS.

A WARM LATER AROUND 750 MB IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.  AS THIS OCCURS, WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT
SNOW TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.  IN ADDITION, AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.

THIS SETS UP FOR AN INTERESTING SITUATION.  WHILE WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE, THERE IS CERTAINLY
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT WILL AFFECT BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.  IN ADDITION, THE LOSS OF SUN ANGLE WILL REFREEZE SOME
WET ROADWAYS ACROSS THE AREA.  THUS, WHILE NOT MEETING FORMAL
THRESHOLDS FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WE BELIEVE THE IMPACT
WARRANTS ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING UNTIL NOON CST TOMORROW.

WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE A WARMUP BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
WE FINALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE 40S.  SUNDAY TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR ON WEDNESDAY.  EVEN WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA, IT WILL NOT BE NEAR AS COLD AS WHAT WE ARE
EXPERIENCING NOW.  FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...
     EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...
     NORTHERN LEA COUNTY...SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO
     NOON CST /11 AM MST/ SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...
     DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
     HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...
     REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...
     TERRELL...UPTON...WARD...WINKLER.


&&

$$

27

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863
FXUS64 KMAF 272349
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
549 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs/vis
likely affecting all terminals through much of the TAF period.
Currently have MVFR/IFR flight conditions at all but FST where LIFR
continues this evening. Looks as though conditions will deteriorate
quickly over the next several hours with -FZDZ and LIFR cigs/vis
expected at most terminals by 28/06Z. Expect periods of -FZDZ to
persist through Saturday morning, potentially resulting in slick
runways during this time as temps remain well below freezing through
mid-day. Will continue to monitor current trends and amend if/when
needed. Otherwise, conditions will improve to MVFR and eventually
VFR Saturday afternoon. E winds around 12kt will remain elevated
overnight and veer to the SE Saturday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Significant snows that affected our area overnight and this morning
have moved east of the area.  However, radar and hourly observations
continue to indicate occasional light snow at various locations.

Road conditions were certainly affected earlier today by significant
snowfall combined with some light freezing precipitation. The most
significant snows fell in northern portions of Lea County where 4 to
6 inches of snow fell. The northern portions of the Texas Permian
Basin reported snowfall amounts generally in the 1-3 inch range
overnight and this morning.

Even with the majority of the snow moving east of the area, the
forecast this evening into the tomorrow morning remains quite
difficult.  Both the Canadian and NAM models show very light
precipitation across a large portions of the CWA, generally along
and east of the mountains, this evening and then continuing into
Saturday morning.  The GFS also indicates overnight precipitation,
primarily over the northern portions of the CWA.  However, the GFS
is having some real struggles handling this winter weather event.
Thus, have trended our forecast towards the NAM and Canadian models.

A warm later around 750 mb is expected to develop later this evening
and overnight.  As this occurs, we will see a transition from light
snow to light freezing drizzle.  In addition, areas of freezing fog
are expected to develop along and east of the mountains as well.

This sets up for an interesting situation.  While we are not
anticipating significant accumulations of ice, there is certainly
potential for minor ice accumulations that will affect bridges and
overpasses.  In addition, the loss of sun angle will refreeze some
wet roadways across the area.  Thus, while not meeting formal
thresholds for a winter weather advisory, we believe the impact
warrants issuance of a winter weather advisory beginning later this
evening and continuing until noon CST tomorrow.

We should finally see a warmup beginning late tomorrow afternoon as
we finally warm above freezing into the 40s.  Sunday temperatures
should be much more in line with climatological normals with highs
in the 60s.

A weak cold front will push into the area on Monday with another
reinforcement of colder air on Wednesday.  Even with cooler air
moving into the area, it will not be near as cold as what we are
experiencing now.  For now, will maintain slight to chance POPs
across the central and eastern portions of the CWA through
mid-week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST
     Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...
     Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
     Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening to
     Noon CST /11 AM MST/ Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Terrell...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

27

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518
FXUS64 KMAF 272137
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
337 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Significant snows that affected our area overnight and this morning
have moved east of the area.  However, radar and hourly observations
continue to indicate occasional light snow at various locations.

Road conditions were certainly affected earlier today by significant
snowfall combined with some light freezing precipitation. The most
significant snows fell in northern portions of Lea County where 4 to
6 inches of snow fell. The northern portions of the Texas Permian
Basin reported snowfall amounts generally in the 1-3 inch range
overnight and this morning.

Even with the majority of the snow moving east of the area, the
forecast this evening into the tomorrow morning remains quite
difficult.  Both the Canadian and NAM models show very light
precipitation across a large portions of the CWA, generally along
and east of the mountains, this evening and then continuing into
Saturday morning.  The GFS also indicates overnight precipitation,
primarily over the northern portions of the CWA.  However, the GFS
is having some real struggles handling this winter weather event.
Thus, have trended our forecast towards the NAM and Canadian models.

A warm later around 750 mb is expected to develop later this evening
and overnight.  As this occurs, we will see a transition from light
snow to light freezing drizzle.  In addition, areas of freezing fog
are expected to develop along and east of the mountains as well.

This sets up for an interesting situation.  While we are not
anticipating significant accumulations of ice, there is certainly
potential for minor ice accumulations that will affect bridges and
overpasses.  In addition, the loss of sun angle will refreeze some
wet roadways across the area.  Thus, while not meeting formal
thresholds for a winter weather advisory, we believe the impact
warrants issuance of a winter weather advisory beginning later this
evening and continuing until noon CST tomorrow.

We should finally see a warmup beginning late tomorrow afternoon as
we finally warm above freezing into the 40s.  Sunday temperatures
should be much more in line with climatological normals with highs
in the 60s.

A weak cold front will push into the area on Monday with another
reinforcement of colder air on Wednesday.  Even with cooler air
moving into the area, it will not be near as cold as what we are
experiencing now.  For now, will maintain slight to chance POPs
across the central and eastern portions of the CWA through
mid-week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 22  44  38  68  /  30  30  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              25  43  42  69  /  30  30  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                28  53  34  69  /  20  20  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  35  52  42  74  /  20  20  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           29  57  41  73  /  20  20  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          22  54  41  65  /  20  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   23  45  33  68  /  20  20  10   0
MARFA TX                   24  63  30  73  /  10  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    25  45  43  68  /  30  30  20  10
ODESSA TX                  23  47  43  67  /  30  30  10   0
WINK TX                    28  53  38  69  /  20  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST
     Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...
     Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
     Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening to
     Noon CST /11 AM MST/ Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Terrell...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

12/03

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137
FXUS64 KMAF 271833 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1233 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winter Weather Advisory has expired for portions of the Permian
Basin and Southeast New Mexico. Will continue and expand the
special weather statement this afternoon through 9 pm cst this
evening for southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas for patchy
light snow, light sleet and patchy freezing fog/drizzle expected.
Lowered high temperatures several degrees this afternoon based on
latest trends.

Updated products are being sent.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
MVFR to IFR conditions will continue at the west Texas and southeast
New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Fog and occasional very
light snow pellets and very light freezing drizzle will continue.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Winter wx in form of SN/FZDZ are the main aviation concerns with mostly
MVFR CIGS. Winter wx mainly impacting HOB/MAF with SN/FZDZ there,
respectively. Improvement is expected by around 15-16Z with light
precip possible into the overnight. Low PoPs preclude mention in
TAFs however. Will continue MVFR CIGS through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

UPDATE...

Issued update to expand the Winter Weather Advisory to include
central and southern portions of the Permian Basin.

DISCUSSION...

Freezing drizzle is occurring in Midland, so the Winter Weather
Advisory has been expanded to include central and southern portions
of the Permian Basin.  Freezing fog is also possible across this
area due to the low dew point depressions.  Freezing drizzle and
freezing fog have been added to the forecast grids for this morning
to reflect these changes.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Light to moderate snow is currently falling across southeast New
Mexico, northern and central portions of the Permian Basin, and the
Western Low Rolling Plains.  The snow is expected to shift eastward
today and will primarily affect the northeastern Permian Basin and
Western Low Rolling Plains by this afternoon.  Along and south of
the Pecos River, any precipitation that falls may be a mixture of
snow, sleet, and rain.  Temperatures are well below freezing and
will not get above freezing across most of the Permian Basin and
southeast New Mexico this afternoon.  A High Wind Warning is in
effect for high winds through Guadalupe Pass and will expire at 8 am
MST today.  A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through this
morning for the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the
northern Permian Basin.  Total snowfall amounts in this area can be
expected to be around 1 to 4 inches.  Patchy fog is also possible
this morning mainly in the Guadalupe Mountains.

The wintry precipitation is expected to continue through Saturday
with the best chances being across the Western Low Rolling Plains
and the eastern Permian Basin.  High temperatures on Saturday will
warm up into the 40s and 50s across much of the area so
precipitation will transition over to rain as afternoon approaches.
Do not expect much in the way of snow accumulations on Saturday.

An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California over the weekend with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly.  Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as surface winds become southerly and the clouds
decrease in coverage.  There is a slight chance of rain across the
very far eastern CWA.  On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area.  Showers with an
isolated thunderstorm may develop Monday afternoon as a result of
the increase in lift.  High temperatures on Monday are not expected
to be quite as warm due to an increase in cloud cover.  Temperatures
will warm slightly on Tuesday with a slight chance of rain across
the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of Eddy and Lea Counties as the
upper trough gets closer to the region.  The upper trough will begin
passing over the area on Wednesday with the models keeping most of
the precipitation north of the CWA.  The models are showing a cold
front associated with the upper trough moving into the area either
on Wednesday or Thursday.  Temperatures are expected to cool to
below normal by Thursday behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 24  46  39  64  /  30  20  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              24  44  40  63  /  30  30  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                25  53  35  68  /  20  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  35  51  44  70  /  20  20  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           31  61  44  72  /  20  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          23  54  39  66  /  20  10  10   0
HOBBS NM                   23  46  35  64  /  20  20  10   0
MARFA TX                   23  60  32  72  /  10   0  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    25  47  41  65  /  30  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                  25  50  41  65  /  30  20  10   0
WINK TX                    28  54  40  70  /  20  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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