Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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969
FXUS64 KMAF 150458
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1058 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions are
expected at all terminals. SE winds tonight expected to increase
from the west by Saturday afternoon. Latest forecast guidance has
come in weaker with the wind speeds for tomorrow so went ahead and
pulled mention of gusts from all but PEQ. Kept sustained speeds near
12kt. Otherwise, a cold front is expected to move into northern
portions of the region just beyond this forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions are
expected to persist at all terminals. SE winds across the board this
evening but slightly elevated in speed at MAF and CNM. Speeds should
decrease shortly after sunset. Winds will then increase to near 12kt
sustained (with a few gusts possible) from the west by Saturday
afternoon as surface low pressure strengthens just north of the
area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A bit of a roller coaster ride is in store for temperatures across
southeast New Mexico and west Texas the next few days, not to
mention the potential for a little wintry precipitation Sunday
afternoon and night.  Nearly zonal flow aloft will prevail through
Saturday which will begin to shove the arctic airmass eastward
today, and promote  a surface trough developing/strengthening
southward into the region Saturday.  This will result in low
temperatures tonight remaining below normal, but not quite as cold
as previous mornings.  In addition, temperatures will jump to near
or above normal levels Saturday afternoon as downslope southwesterly
winds prevail, and aid the expulsion of the arctic airmass.

However, a shortwave trough over the Pac Northwest today will drop
rapidly southeastward and affect the region Sunday and Sunday
night.  Portions of this same upper trough will shear eastward
across the northern Rockies and northern U.S. Plains through
Saturday night and send a reinforcing shot of arctic air into the
region Sunday morning.  As the rest of the shortwave trough shears
southeastward over the region, expect precipitation to break out
over southeast New Mexico and the Guadalupe Mountains Sunday
afternoon, then spread east, southeastward over the Permian Basin
Sunday night.  Forecast soundings indicate precipitation will
begin as snow over the Guadalupe Mountains, and across northern
portions of Lea County Sunday afternoon with a mix of rain or snow
further south.  Will keep PoPs mainly over these areas through
Sunday afternoon, with little accumulation of snow expected.  As the
precipitation spreads east southeastward Sunday night, it appears
most will fall as light snow.  The RRQ of a 120kt h25 jet over the
region will provide additional lift and cooling through the column.
Current progs are varying in how deep the shortwave trough will be
as it passes overhead, but all do not display much moisture to work
with, so for now will keep precipitation amounts light, on the order
of an inch or less of snow accumulation.  Will keep PoPs going these
periods, make a mention of light snowfall accumulations Sunday night
and have later shifts monitor for any change.

Thereafter, there will be a slow warming trend through the week as
upper ridging begins to spread over the region.  There could be
another shortwave trough moving over the region mid to late next
week.  This trough will flatten a highly amplified ua ridge over the
western ConUS, which was one of the main factors transporting arctic
air southward the last several days.  In other words, with the
passage of this ua trough, we will not see frigid air invading the
central U.S, or southeast New Mexico and west Texas through next
weekend.  It does appear the extended forecast will remain dry
though.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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