Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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417
FXUS64 KMAF 272108
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
408 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change from previous forecasts. Hot tomorrow with a few
locations across the upper Trans Pecos topping triple digits.  A
short wave trough topping the subtropical ridge over the southern
High Plains will progress out over upper Midwest Friday. The
associated surface cyclone/anticyclone couplet will send a weak
cold front down across east central NM east across the TX South
Plains by max heating tomorrow. Convergence along this boundary
along with a bit of instability will warrant isolated to scattered
TSRA Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Working against this
is a slug of dry tropospheric air mixing down and lowering surface
moisture, thus limiting PoPs closest to and north of the boundary.
This boundary is expected to dissipate as strong sensible heating
acts frontolytically Saturday. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge
will become pinched between a sharp long wave trough developing
off the NOAM west coast. Lowered thicknesses will keep
temperatures to just a few degrees above normal. With the mid-
tropospheric theta-e ridge aligned over the mountains, isolated
TSRA can be expected there. Elsewhere dry conditions are forecast
until late in the extended as a TUTT low approaches the region.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  71  97  70  96  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    69  96  70  95  /  10  30  30  20
DRYDEN TX                      73 102  72 100  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  99  70  97  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  89  66  88  /  10  20  30  20
HOBBS NM                       67  92  66  91  /  10  20  30  10
MARFA TX                       57  89  59  86  /  10  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  99  71  98  /   0  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      73  99  72  96  /   0  10  10  10
WINK TX                        72 100  69  99  /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/70

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