Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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090
FXUS64 KMAF 010521
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field by late morning, w/bases
3.5-6 kft agl. Best chances of convection will be at KCNM, closer
to the higher terrain.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 203 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level high pressure centered across eastern New Mexico will
bring a mild and quiet night across west Texas and southeast New
Mexico.

This upper level high is expected to rapidly push east into east
Texas Friday and into the Gulf Coast states Saturday. This will
allow a weak upper level trough to translate across the Rockies
and into the southern Plains Saturday and Sunday. A surface lee
trough will form and strengthen in this flow across eastern New
Mexico Saturday. Strong heating combined with convergence along
the surface trough and approach of upper level trough will spark
thunderstorms across southeast New Mexico and the mountains on
east to the western Permian Basin Saturday. The chance for
thunderstorms will continue Sunday and shift eastward to also
include much of the Permian Basin as the upper level and surface
trough push further east across the southern Plains. Above
normal temperatures are expected with the developing surface
trough and low level thermal ridge this weekend.

The forecast for next Monday through Wednesday is problematic
at this time. The ECMWF model is indicating a continued slight
chance of thunderstorms daily across much of the area due to
upper level weakness parked over the forecast area. In contrast
the GFS model strengthens an upper level ridge over the region,
keeping much of the region dry. The ECMWF has been consistent run
to run with this precipitation so will retain superblends slight
pops these days. Above normal temperatures are expected to persist
next week with low level thermal ridging in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     95  73  95  76 /   0  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       95  71  98  72 /  10  30  20  20
Dryden                         97  74  97  77 /   0  10  10  20
Fort Stockton                  95  72  99  73 /  10  10  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 87  67  90  70 /  10  40  30  20
Hobbs                          94  70  95  71 /   0  10  30  20
Marfa                          86  63  89  65 /  20  30  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           95  73  96  75 /   0  10  10  20
Odessa                         95  74  96  76 /   0  10  10  20
Wink                           98  76 100  75 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44

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