Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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540
FXUS64 KMAF 281532
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
932 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...

Updating the forecast to lower high temperatures back into the
20`s and 30`s for most areas this afternoon. Clouds and heavy
freezing drizzle look to hang on most of the day for the Permian
Basin and SE NM which should keep temps from moving too much. Will
also extend the Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST as travel
condition will continue to be hazardous.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

Current sfc obs show stratus and fog socked in this AM, w/all
terminals under IFR and VLIFR conditions.  Area radars show heavier
precip remains north of the area...in the form of snow...whereas
closer to home...clouds are not cold enough.  Instead, a walk
outside confirms a freezing mizzle that radar is not picking up.
Models bring this to an end by 18Z, w/skies scattering out to VFR in
the 18-22Z time frame as sfc flow veers to SE.  However,
redevelopment is likely again overnight.  Buffer soundings try to
develop VLIFR cigs, but this is likely too pessimistic, and we`ll go
no lower than LIFR attm.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures in the teens and twenties are across the area this
morning under cloudy skies.  Wintry precipitation is to the north of
the CWA and appears like it will remain to the north of the area.
There is a chance for freezing drizzle and fog this morning across
the area so a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through this
morning for southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, and the Trans Pecos area.  Areas of drizzle and
freezing drizzle will remain possible across the far eastern CWA
through tonight.  Temperatures are expected to warm up today as 850
mb temperatures warm but temperatures will still remain well below
normal values.

An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California by Sunday with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly.  Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as 850 mb temperatures warm and the clouds
decrease in coverage.  On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area.  Showers may
develop starting Sunday night as a result of the increase in lift.
High temperatures on Monday are not expected to be quite as warm due
to an increase in cloud cover and cooler temperatures aloft.
Temperatures will warm up on Tuesday as a surface trough develops
across the area with elevated westerly winds contributing to
downslope warming.  There is a slight chance of rain across the
Guadalupe Mountains and the Van Horn area as the upper trough gets
closer to the region.  The upper trough will begin passing over the
area on Wednesday with a slight chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms beginning Tuesday night.  The models are showing a
cold front associated with the upper trough moving into the area on
Wednesday.  Temperatures are expected to cool to below normal
Wednesday and Thursday behind the front before gradually warming
back up on Friday.  There is a slight chance of snow developing
Wednesday night behind the front across parts of southeast New
Mexico, the northwest Permian Basin, and into the Guadalupe
Mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 30  30  66  37  /  30  10   0  20
BIG SPRING TX              30  30  64  37  /  30  10  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                33  33  68  43  /  20  10   0  20
DRYDEN TX                  45  42  70  53  /  20  10   0  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           30  30  71  46  /  20  10   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          41  39  65  40  /  20  10   0  20
HOBBS NM                   28  28  65  37  /  20  10   0  20
MARFA TX                   60  28  72  36  /  20  10   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    31  31  67  39  /  30  10   0  20
ODESSA TX                  31  31  67  40  /  30  10   0  20
WINK TX                    34  34  69  42  /  20  10   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

29/99

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