Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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177
FXUS64 KMAF 032351
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
651 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered storms will continue over SE NM... Upper Trans Pecos...
and Western Permian Basin through 06z. Have included mention of
storms in all TAFs. MVFR cigs possible under locally heavy rain
with wind gusts of 40kts or greater.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 147 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be common across southeast
New Mexico and the higher terrain of west Texas through this
evening, if not overnight as a plume of mid and upper level
moisture continues to spread over the region around/under a
somewhat weakened ua ridge.  Morning showers and storms over the
Permian basin have waned, but another round of convection has
begun to develop over the higher terrain of west Texas under the
said plume of moisture, and expect the same over SE NM in the next
few hours.  Due to good heating and a dry subcloud layer, gusty
winds will be possible with the stronger storms, but also heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding due to PWats ramping up to
near 1.5 inches.  Expect this higher mid level theta e air to
push southward Tuesday, so will continue the trend of higher PoPs
over the southern half or so of the CWA then.  Clouds/precipitation
will likely keep high temperatures down a degree or two today and
Tuesday in most locations, if not several degrees in areas
receiving heavy rainfall.

From Wednesday through next weekend, it appears rain chances will be
at a premium while hot temperatures will be common.  This as the ua
ridge strengthens over the region and moisture becomes more scarce
through the atmospheric column.  Think high temperatures will reach/
exceed 100 degrees over most locations outside the mountains
Wednesday, then stay that way through at least Sunday.  A few record
high temperatures may be challenged also, especially Wednesday
through Friday. Stay tuned.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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