Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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780
FXUS64 KMAF 261047
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
547 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals today.  However,
west to southwest winds will pickup, especially by early afternoon.
Sustained winds of 25 to 30kt will be common, with gusts as high as
45kt considering virga showers may enhance gusts at KCNM, KHOB and
perhaps KINK.  MVFR visibility in blowing dust will be included at
most terminals around 26/20Z until 27/00Z.  Winds should subside
around 27/00Z with VFR conditions expected thereafter.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015/

An upper level low is in the process of cutting off from the main
flow over New Mexico this morning. At the same time a sfc low was
strengthening over the TX Panhandle. Very strong mid level winds
mixing down along with a tight pressure gradient will lead to
blustery conditions across the western half the region. One
complicating factor will be an abundance of high clouds streaming
overhead...however this should be overcome by atmospheric mixing.
There is also a chance of virga showers and isolated thunderstorms
in this area which may help mix down even stronger winds to the
sfc. For the above reasons, will expand the High Wind Warning to
include higher elevations in the Davis Mountains along with the
Guadalupe Mountains and issue a Wind Advisory for the SE NM
plains, Upper Trans Pecos, Van Horn/Highway 54 corridor, and the
Marfa Plateau. Winds will quickly decrease by sunset as the
atmosphere begins to decouple.

In addition to the mostly dry thunderstorms expected to the west,
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the far eastern
Permian Basin this afternoon along a Pacific cold front.
Temperatures will cool slightly today behind the front, especially
across SE NM. The upper low will drift across the TX Panhandle
Monday as a strong cold front accelerates south across the region.
High temperatures will likely be reached early in the day with
clouds and showers moving in from the north during the afternoon.
Like a broken record, strong winds are expected behind the front,
possibly nearing advisory criteria in some locations. Will need to
monitor Guadalupe Pass for gap winds if winds become more
northeasterly.

Temperatures will be chilly Tuesday as clouds and even some light
rain may be stubborn to clear the area. In fact, record low maximum
temperatures are possible Tuesday. After a cold morning Wednesday,
temperatures rebound into the 70s during the afternoon. This trend
continues late in the week with temps climbing back to normal by
Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...

Windy conditions will affect the forecast area again today, with
higher speeds than Saturday expected.  A High Wind Warning is in
effect for the Guadalupe Mtns and the higher elevations of the Davis
Mtns, and a Wind Advisory is in effect for locations along and west
of a Hobbs to Wink to Alpine line.  Sustained 20 foot winds will
likely rise to 20 mph sustained over the rest of the forecast area
too.  RH/s will drop to 10 to 15 percent over all but SE NM and the
Guadalupe Mtns, although 5 to 10 percent minimum RH/s are expected
in the Big Bend region by early afternoon.  RH/s will rise late this
afternoon over all but the Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos due
to a Pacific cold front moving into the area.  Since the strongest
winds will occur after RH/s bottom out, fuels are still moist and
high temperatures will be near normal, will issue a Fire Danger
Statement for the entire forecast area.  There may also be a few dry
lightning strikes over the Guadalupe`s and SE NM Plains this
afternoon which would enhance wind gusts.

Recovery will be poor to fair tonight with a cold front moving south
through the area Monday.  RH/s of 10 to 15 percent will occur over
the Big Bend region and Lower trans Pecos Monday afternoon, ahead of
the front.  since wind speeds do not appear strong enough in these
areas, critical conditions are not expected.  It will be windy
behind the front, but RH/s will rise with below normal temperatures
expected areawide Monday night through Wednesday.  Fire weather
concerns will begin to increase again Thursday as temps warm above
normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  48  70  41  /  10  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              84  50  75  44  /  10  20  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                72  48  67  42  /  20  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  89  54  84  50  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  51  74  46  /  10  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  42  64  38  /  20  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                   72  45  65  39  /  10  20  30  20
MARFA TX                   73  40  67  39  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  49  74  43  /  10  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  80  49  73  43  /  10  10  20  20
WINK TX                    79  50  74  44  /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY from Noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

67/29

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583
FXUS64 KMAF 260951
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
451 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level low is in the process of cutting off from the main
flow over New Mexico this morning. At the same time a sfc low was
strengthening over the TX Panhandle. Very strong mid level winds
mixing down along with a tight pressure gradient will lead to
blustery conditions across the western half the region. One
complicating factor will be an abundance of high clouds streaming
overhead...however this should be overcome by atmospheric mixing.
There is also a chance of virga showers and isolated thunderstorms
in this area which may help mix down even stronger winds to the
sfc. For the above reasons, will expand the High Wind Warning to
include higher elevations in the Davis Mountains along with the
Guadalupe Mountains and issue a Wind Advisory for the SE NM
plains, Upper Trans Pecos, Van Horn/Highway 54 corridor, and the
Marfa Plateau. Winds will quickly decrease by sunset as the
atmosphere begins to decouple.

In addition to the mostly dry thunderstorms expected to the west,
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the far eastern
Permian Basin this afternoon along a Pacific cold front.
Temperatures will cool slightly today behind the front, especially
across SE NM. The upper low will drift across the TX Panhandle
Monday as a strong cold front accelerates south across the region.
High temperatures will likely be reached early in the day with
clouds and showers moving in from the north during the afternoon.
Like a broken record, strong winds are expected behind the front,
possibly nearing advisory criteria in some locations. Will need to
monitor Guadalupe Pass for gap winds if winds become more
northeasterly.

Temperatures will be chilly Tuesday as clouds and even some light
rain may be stubborn to clear the area. In fact, record low maximum
temperatures are possible Tuesday. After a cold morning Wednesday,
temperatures rebound into the 70s during the afternoon. This trend
continues late in the week with temps climbing back to normal by
Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Windy conditions will affect the forecast area again today, with
higher speeds than Saturday expected.  A High Wind Warning is in
effect for the Guadalupe Mtns and the higher elevations of the Davis
Mtns, and a Wind Advisory is in effect for locations along and west
of a Hobbs to Wink to Alpine line.  Sustained 20 foot winds will
likely rise to 20 mph sustained over the rest of the forecast area
too.  RH/s will drop to 10 to 15 percent over all but SE NM and the
Guadalupe Mtns, although 5 to 10 percent minimum RH/s are expected
in the Big Bend region by early afternoon.  RH/s will rise late this
afternoon over all but the Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos due
to a Pacific cold front moving into the area.  Since the strongest
winds will occur after RH/s bottom out, fuels are still moist and
high temperatures will be near normal, will issue a Fire Danger
Statement for the entire forecast area.  There may also be a few dry
lightning strikes over the Guadalupe`s and SE NM Plains this
afternoon which would enhance wind gusts.

Recovery will be poor to fair tonight with a cold front moving south
through the area Monday.  RH/s of 10 to 15 percent will occur over
the Big Bend region and Lower trans Pecos Monday afternoon, ahead of
the front.  since wind speeds do not appear strong enough in these
areas, critical conditions are not expected.  It will be windy
behind the front, but RH/s will rise with below normal temperatures
expected areawide Monday night through Wednesday.  Fire weather
concerns will begin to increase again Thursday as temps warm above
normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  48  70  41  /  10  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              84  50  75  44  /  10  20  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                72  48  67  42  /  20  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  89  54  84  50  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  51  74  46  /  10  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  42  64  38  /  20  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                   72  45  65  39  /  10  20  30  20
MARFA TX                   73  40  67  39  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  49  74  43  /  10  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  80  49  73  43  /  10  10  20  20
WINK TX                    79  50  74  44  /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY from Noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

67/29

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218
FXUS64 KMAF 260514
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail overnight and Sunday morning.  However,
west to southwest winds will pickup at all terminals, especially by
early afternoon.  Sustained winds of 25 to 30kt will be common with
gusts near 40kt considering virga showers which may enhance gusts.
MVFR visibility in blowing dust will be included at most terminals
around 26/20Z until 27/00Z.  winds should subside around 27/00Z with
VFR conditions expected thereafter.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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165
FXUS64 KMAF 260235
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
935 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A rather bromidic night is shaping up for West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico, weather-wise, w/satellite imagery showing CAVU
conditions and sfc obs carrying light, dry SW flow. Clear skies,
light winds, and low dewpoints will promote good radiational
cooling overnight, and the latest NAM suggests overnight mins can
be lowered a degree or two. We`ll do an update for that, and
adjust other parameters as necessary.  Updates out shortly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE STORMS AND WIND TO THE AREA YESTERDAY
HAS QUICKLY MOVED OFF TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY.  BEHIND
IT HAVE BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST GETS HERE.  THIS TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CUT OFF
LOW OVER NM SUNDAY AND SLOWLY WOBBLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGE RETURNS WITH DRY WX FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

HAVE SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH SOME WIND BUT NOT AS MUCH AS FRIDAY.  AS
OF 18Z GDP IS APPROACHING HIGH WIND SPEEDS AND THEY MAY BRIEFLY
REACH 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD NOT BE FOR A SUSTAINED AMOUNT
OF TIME.  INHERITED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
FOR SUNDAY AS IT APPEARS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK UNDER THE BASE
OF THE CUT OFF LOW AND ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS... UPGRADING
THIS TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.  IT APPEARS A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST WIND AND SOME COOLING.  A
STRONGER POLAR FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA MONDAY PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING.

SHOULD HAVE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.  MARFA GOT DOWN TO 34 DEGREES THIS MORNING AND
MAY DROP INTO THE 30S THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.  HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S.  WARMED TEMPS MONDAY AS BELIEVE
FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER GETTING DOWN HERE.  WILL HAVE A NORTH
WIND ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S WITH 70S CLOSER TO THE
RIO GRANDE.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

RAIN CHANCES NOT LOOKING THAT GOOD THIS WEEK.  STORM CHANCES RETURN
TO THE FORECAST IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY WITH LOW POPS SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ALSO HAVE STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.  A LITTLE PRECIP
MAY LINGER OVER THE NE TUESDAY BUT AFTER THAT THE FORECAST IS DRY.

FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS,
UPPER TRANS PECOS, AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING DUE TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND LOW RH/S BUT NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES, GREENUP
OF FOLIAGE AND ERCS BELOW 50 PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING.

IT WILL BE WINDIER AND CONTINUED DRY SUNDAY BUT SIMILAR CONCERNS
WILL EXIST THAT PRECLUDE A WATCH OR WARNING AT THIS TIME FOR WEST
TEXAS AND OR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO ONLY BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS, WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND ERCS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 50.  WILL PROBABLY ISSUE ANOTHER FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 52  81  50  76  /   0  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              51  85  54  79  /   0  10  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                51  76  47  76  /   0  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  58  89  57  87  /   0  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           52  85  54  80  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          47  67  42  70  /   0  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   49  76  47  74  /   0  10  10  30
MARFA TX                   36  76  37  71  /   0  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    52  83  52  78  /   0  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  56  82  51  78  /   0  10  20  10
WINK TX                    50  82  50  80  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

84/44

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568
FXUS64 KMAF 252337 CCA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, AND BECOMING GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN BY MID- MORNING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE STORMS AND WIND TO THE AREA YESTERDAY
HAS QUICKLY MOVED OFF TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY.  BEHIND
IT HAVE BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST GETS HERE.  THIS TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CUT OFF
LOW OVER NM SUNDAY AND SLOWLY WOBBLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGE RETURNS WITH DRY WX FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

HAVE SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH SOME WIND BUT NOT AS MUCH AS FRIDAY.  AS
OF 18Z GDP IS APPROACHING HIGH WIND SPEEDS AND THEY MAY BRIEFLY
REACH 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD NOT BE FOR A SUSTAINED AMOUNT
OF TIME.  INHERITED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
FOR SUNDAY AS IT APPEARS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK UNDER THE BASE
OF THE CUT OFF LOW AND ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS... UPGRADING
THIS TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.  IT APPEARS A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST WIND AND SOME COOLING.  A
STRONGER POLAR FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA MONDAY PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING.

SHOULD HAVE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.  MARFA GOT DOWN TO 34 DEGREES THIS MORNING AND
MAY DROP INTO THE 30S THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.  HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S.  WARMED TEMPS MONDAY AS BELIEVE
FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER GETTING DOWN HERE.  WILL HAVE A NORTH
WIND ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S WITH 70S CLOSER TO THE
RIO GRANDE.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

RAIN CHANCES NOT LOOKING THAT GOOD THIS WEEK.  STORM CHANCES RETURN
TO THE FORECAST IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY WITH LOW POPS SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ALSO HAVE STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.  A LITTLE PRECIP
MAY LINGER OVER THE NE TUESDAY BUT AFTER THAT THE FORECAST IS DRY.

FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS,
UPPER TRANS PECOS, AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING DUE TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND LOW RH/S BUT NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES, GREENUP
OF FOLIAGE AND ERCS BELOW 50 PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING.

IT WILL BE WINDIER AND CONTINUED DRY SUNDAY BUT SIMILAR CONCERNS
WILL EXIST THAT PRECLUDE A WATCH OR WARNING AT THIS TIME FOR WEST
TEXAS AND OR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO ONLY BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS, WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND ERCS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 50.  WILL PROBABLY ISSUE ANOTHER FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.


&&

$$

84

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211
FXUS64 KMAF 252335
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
635 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail, with gusty winds southwest winds
diminishing after sunset this evening, and becoming gusty once
again by mid-morning on Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought the storms and wind to the area yesterday
has quickly moved off to the Mississippi River Valley today.  Behind
it have brief ridging aloft before the next upper trough over the
Intermountain West gets here.  This trough develops into a cut off
low over NM Sunday and slowly wobbles across the region for the next
couple of days.  After that upper ridge returns with dry wx for the
rest of the week.

Have sunny skies today with some wind but not as much as Friday.  As
of 18z GDP is approaching high wind speeds and they may briefly
reach 40 mph this afternoon but should not be for a sustained amount
of time.  Inherited a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains
for Sunday as it appears a strong shortwave will track under the base
of the cut off low and across the Guadalupe Mountains... upgrading
this to a High Wind Warning.  It appears a Pacific front will move
across the area on Sunday with a west wind and some cooling.  A
stronger polar front moves down into the area Monday passing through
the region during the evening.

Should have near normal temperatures this evening with lows
generally in the 50s.  Marfa got down to 34 degrees this morning and
may drop into the 30s the next couple of mornings.  Highs Sunday and
Monday will be in the 70s and 80s.  Warmed temps Monday as believe
front will be a little slower getting down here.  Will have a north
wind on Tuesday with highs mostly in the 60s with 70s closer to the
Rio Grande.  Temperatures begin to recover Wednesday through the end
of the week as ridge builds over the area.

Rain chances not looking that good this week.  Storm chances return
to the forecast in the West on Sunday with low pops spreading across
the area Sunday night.  Also have storm chances across the north
Monday and Monday night along and behind the front.  A little precip
may linger over the NE Tuesday but after that the forecast is dry.

FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Danger Statement through early this evening
for the southeast New Mexico plains, Guadalupe and Davis mountains,
Upper Trans Pecos, and western Permian Basin. Near critical to
critical fire weather conditions are developing due to breezy
conditions and low rh/s but near normal high temperatures, greenup
of foliage and ERCs below 50 preclude an upgrade to a warning.

It will be windier and continued dry Sunday but similar concerns
will exist that preclude a watch or warning at this time for west
Texas and or southeast New Mexico. High temperatures are still expected
to only be near normal levels, with recent rainfall and ERCs still
expected to be less than 50.  Will probably issue another Fire
Danger Statement.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

84

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124
FXUS64 KMAF 251919
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
219 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought the storms and wind to the area yesterday
has quickly moved off to the Mississippi River Valley today.  Behind
it have brief ridging aloft before the next upper trough over the
Intermountain West gets here.  This trough develops into a cut off
low over NM Sunday and slowly wobbles across the region for the next
couple of days.  After that upper ridge returns with dry wx for the
rest of the week.

Have sunny skies today with some wind but not as much as Friday.  As
of 18z GDP is approaching high wind speeds and they may briefly
reach 40 mph this afternoon but should not be for a sustained amount
of time.  Inherited a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains
for Sunday as it appears a strong shortwave will track under the base
of the cut off low and across the Guadalupe Mountains... upgrading
this to a High Wind Warning.  It appears a Pacific front will move
across the area on Sunday with a west wind and some cooling.  A
stronger polar front moves down into the area Monday passing through
the region during the evening.

Should have near normal temperatures this evening with lows
generally in the 50s.  Marfa got down to 34 degrees this morning and
may drop into the 30s the next couple of mornings.  Highs Sunday and
Monday will be in the 70s and 80s.  Warmed temps Monday as believe
front will be a little slower getting down here.  Will have a north
wind on Tuesday with highs mostly in the 60s with 70s closer to the
Rio Grande.  Temperatures begin to recover Wednesday through the end
of the week as ridge builds over the area.

Rain chances not looking that good this week.  Storm chances return
to the forecast in the West on Sunday with low pops spreading across
the area Sunday night.  Also have storm chances across the north
Monday and Monday night along and behind the front.  A little precip
may linger over the NE Tuesday but after that the forecast is dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Danger Statement through early this evening
for the southeast New Mexico plains, Guadalupe and Davis mountains,
Upper Trans Pecos, and western Permian Basin. Near critical to
critical fire weather conditions are developing due to breezy
conditions and low rh/s but near normal high temperatures, greenup
of foliage and ERCs below 50 preclude an upgrade to a warning.

It will be windier and continued dry Sunday but similar concerns
will exist that preclude a watch or warning at this time for west
Texas and or southeast New Mexico. High temperatures are still expected
to only be near normal levels, with recent rainfall and ERCs still
expected to be less than 50.  Will probably issue another Fire
Danger Statement.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 52  81  50  76  /   0  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              54  85  54  79  /   0  10  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                52  76  47  76  /   0  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  58  89  57  87  /   0  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           54  85  54  80  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          49  67  42  70  /   0  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   50  76  47  74  /   0  10  10  30
MARFA TX                   37  76  37  71  /   0  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    53  83  52  78  /   0  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  54  82  51  78  /   0  10  20  10
WINK TX                    51  82  50  80  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

12/72

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092
FXUS64 KMAF 251857
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
157 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought the storms and wind to the area yesterday
has quickly moved off to the Mississippi River Valley today.  Behind
it have brief ridging aloft before the next upper trough over the
Intermountain West gets here.  This trough develops into a cut off
low over NM Sunday and slowly wobbles across the region for the next
couple of days.  After that upper ridge returns with dry wx for the
rest of the week.

Have sunny skies today with some wind but not as much as Friday.  As
of 18z GDP is approaching high wind speeds and they may briefly
reach 40 mph this afternoon but should not be for a sustained amount
of time.  Inherited a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains
for Sunday as it appears a strong shortwave will track under the base
of the cut off low and across the Guadalupe Mountains... upgrading
this to a High Wind Warning.  It appears a Pacific front will move
across the area on Sunday with a west wind and some cooling.  A
stronger polar front moves down into the area Monday passing through
the region during the evening.

Should have near normal temperatures this evening with lows
generally in the 50s.  Marfa got down to 34 degrees this morning and
may drop into the 30s the next couple of mornings.  Highs Sunday and
Monday will be in the 70s and 80s.  Warmed temps Monday as believe
front will be a little slower getting down here.  Will have a north
wind on Tuesday with highs mostly in the 60s with 70s closer to the
Rio Grande.  Temperatures begin to recover Wednesday through the end
of the week as ridge builds over the area.

Rain chances not looking that good this week.  Storm chances return
to the forecast in the West on Sunday with low pops spreading across
the area Sunday night.  Also have storm chances across the north
Monday and Monday night along and behind the front.  A little precip
may linger over the NE Tuesday but after that the forecast is dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Danger Statement through early this evening
for the southeast New Mexico plains, Guadalupe and Davis mountains,
Upper Trans Pecos, and western Permian Basin. Near critical to
critical fire weather conditions are developing due to breezy
conditions and low rh/s but near normal high temperatures, greenup
of foliage and ERCs below 50 preclude an upgrade to a warning.

It will be windier and continued dry Sunday but similar concerns
will exist that preclude a watch or warning at this time for west
Texas and or southeast New Mexico. High temperatures are still expected
to only be near normal levels, with recent rainfall and ERCs still
expected to be less than 50.  Will probably issue another Fire
Danger Statement.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 82  52  81  50  /   0   0  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              85  54  85  54  /   0   0  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                82  52  76  47  /   0   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  88  58  89  57  /   0   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           84  54  85  54  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          73  49  67  42  /   0   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   78  50  76  47  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   75  37  76  37  /   0   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    83  53  83  52  /   0   0  10  20
ODESSA TX                  82  54  82  51  /   0   0  10  20
WINK TX                    84  51  82  50  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

12/72

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527
FXUS64 KMAF 251725
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1225 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under mostly clear skies.
West winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph are expected this
afternoon through around sunset. Winds should generally diminish
to less than 10 mph and become southwest by early this evening and
continue overnight through mid Sunday morning.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.
Westerly winds will pickup this morning, and increase again further
this afternoon to the 15 to 25kt range, with gusts perhaps as high
as 35kt.  Winds will subside around 26/01Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015/

A very active pattern will bring more windy conditions over the
next several days then much cooler weather next week. The upper
level storm system that brought showers and thunderstorms to
eastern portions of the region yesterday has moved into the Great
Lakes. Meanwhile...another upper trough has begun to dig over the
Great Basin this morning. This system is expected to cut off from
the main flow over the weekend and slowly drift across the
Southern Plains early next week.

Expect more windy and dry conditions the next couple afternoons as
a sfc low develops and intensifies over the TX Panhandle. Winds
will likely reach high wind criteria tomorrow afternoon in the
Guadalupe Mountains so will issue a High Wind Watch there. Wind
advisories may also be needed later for the adjacent plains. Fire
danger will remain elevated with the dry air and strong winds, but
high temperatures should only rise to near normal this weekend.
Temperatures may even cool a few degrees Sunday across SE NM
behind a Pacific front. See the fire wx discussion below for more
information concerning the next 2 days.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible beginning late Sunday as
the upper trough approaches. This storm system is expected to pass
just to our north so the best rain chances will remain north and
east of the region through Monday. Wrap around moisture may bring
a better chance of showers to the area Monday night and Tuesday. A
cold front will arrive late Monday ushering in much colder air for
this time of year. Strong CAA followed by a sfc ridge is expected
to bring near record cold temperatures to the area Wednesday
morning.

Upper level ridging builds in mid to late week with warming
temperatures and mostly dry conditions.

FIRE WEATHER...

Dry air will remain over the forecast area today and Sunday.  Since
an upper level storm system will move over New Mexico Sunday and
stay there through Monday, gusty westerly winds will continue to
affect the region through Monday.  RH/s are expected to drop to
around 10 percent over portions of the Presidio Valley and Big Bend
region where the warmest temperatures will occur.  Since 20 foot
wind speeds will not rise above 20 mph sustained very long in these
areas, only near critical fire weather conditions area expected
there.  The strongest 20 foot winds are expected over the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, Van Horn area, SE NM Plains and Upper Trans
Pecos.  Although RH/s will drop to near 10 to 15 percent in these
areas, a Fire Danger Statement will be issued for this afternoon
into early evening due to near normal high temperatures, greenup of
foliage and ERCs below 50.  Locations along and west of a Lamesa to
Wink to Alpine line will be included in the affected area.  Recovery
tonight will be fair to good.

It will be windier Sunday as a belt of stronger mid level winds
spreads across the region at the base of the upper low over NM.
The warmest temps and lowest minimum afternoon RH/s will be over the
Presidio Valley and Big Bend region again.  20 foot wind speeds will
be 20 mph or greater for 5 to 7 hours over most of the forecast area
to the north of the Presidio Valley and Big Bend region from late
Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon.  However, RH/s will start
rising over the Guadalupe Mountains, SE NM Plains and the Upper
Trans Pecos Sunday afternoon due to a Pacific cold front moving into
the area.  In addition, high temperatures will still be near normal
levels, much of the rest of the area had rain Friday and ERCs will
still be less than 50.  Think another Fire Danger Statement will be
utilized due to the low end threat of fires starting/spreading.
Windy conditions will persist Monday, but will winds will not be as
strong as Sunday or even Saturday.  A stronger cold front will move
into the area and push south through the Rio Grande by early
Tuesday.  Fire weather conditions will be much less elevated through
midweek.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

12

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080
FXUS64 KMAF 251100
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.
Westerly winds will pickup this morning, and increase again further
this afternoon to the 15 to 25kt range, with gusts perhaps as high
as 35kt.  Winds will subside around 26/01Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015/

A very active pattern will bring more windy conditions over the
next several days then much cooler weather next week. The upper
level storm system that brought showers and thunderstorms to
eastern portions of the region yesterday has moved into the Great
Lakes. Meanwhile...another upper trough has begun to dig over the
Great Basin this morning. This system is expected to cut off from
the main flow over the weekend and slowly drift across the
Southern Plains early next week.

Expect more windy and dry conditions the next couple afternoons as
a sfc low develops and intensifies over the TX Panhandle. Winds
will likely reach high wind criteria tomorrow afternoon in the
Guadalupe Mountains so will issue a High Wind Watch there. Wind
advisories may also be needed later for the adjacent plains. Fire
danger will remain elevated with the dry air and strong winds, but
high temperatures should only rise to near normal this weekend.
Temperatures may even cool a few degrees Sunday across SE NM
behind a Pacific front. See the fire wx discussion below for more
information concerning the next 2 days.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible beginning late Sunday as
the upper trough approaches. This storm system is expected to pass
just to our north so the best rain chances will remain north and
east of the region through Monday. Wrap around moisture may bring
a better chance of showers to the area Monday night and Tuesday. A
cold front will arrive late Monday ushering in much colder air for
this time of year. Strong CAA followed by a sfc ridge is expected
to bring near record cold temperatures to the area Wednesday
morning.

Upper level ridging builds in mid to late week with warming
temperatures and mostly dry conditions.

FIRE WEATHER...

Dry air will remain over the forecast area today and Sunday.  Since
an upper level storm system will move over New Mexico Sunday and
stay there through Monday, gusty westerly winds will continue to
affect the region through Monday.  RH/s are expected to drop to
around 10 percent over portions of the Presidio Valley and Big Bend
region where the warmest temperatures will occur.  Since 20 foot
wind speeds will not rise above 20 mph sustained very long in these
areas, only near critical fire weather conditions area expected
there.  The strongest 20 foot winds are expected over the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, Van Horn area, SE NM Plains and Upper Trans
Pecos.  Although RH/s will drop to near 10 to 15 percent in these
areas, a Fire Danger Statement will be issued for this afternoon
into early evening due to near normal high temperatures, greenup of
foliage and ERCs below 50.  Locations along and west of a Lamesa to
Wink to Alpine line will be included in the affected area.  Recovery
tonight will be fair to good.

It will be windier Sunday as a belt of stronger mid level winds
spreads across the region at the base of the upper low over NM.
The warmest temps and lowest minimum afternoon RH/s will be over the
Presidio Valley and Big Bend region again.  20 foot wind speeds will
be 20 mph or greater for 5 to 7 hours over most of the forecast area
to the north of the Presidio Valley and Big Bend region from late
Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon.  However, RH/s will start
rising over the Guadalupe Mountains, SE NM Plains and the Upper
Trans Pecos Sunday afternoon due to a Pacific cold front moving into
the area.  In addition, high temperatures will still be near normal
levels, much of the rest of the area had rain Friday and ERCs will
still be less than 50.  Think another Fire Danger Statement will be
utilized due to the low end threat of fires starting/spreading.
Windy conditions will persist Monday, but will winds will not be as
strong as Sunday or even Saturday.  A stronger cold front will move
into the area and push south through the Rio Grande by early
Tuesday.  Fire weather conditions will be much less elevated through
midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 82  53  80  51  /   0   0  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              85  55  85  56  /   0   0  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                82  52  75  49  /   0   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  88  58  89  57  /   0   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           84  55  84  54  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          73  50  67  44  /   0   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   78  50  75  47  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   75  43  75  47  /   0   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    83  54  83  54  /   0   0  10  20
ODESSA TX                  82  55  82  53  /   0   0  10  20
WINK TX                    84  52  82  52  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

67/29

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406
FXUS64 KMAF 250906
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
406 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A very active pattern will bring more windy conditions over the next
several days then much cooler weather next week. The upper level
storm system that brought showers and thunderstorms to eastern
portions of the region yesterday has moved into the Great Lakes.
Meanwhile...another upper trough has begun to dig over the Great
Basin this morning. This system is expected to cut off from the main
flow over the weekend and slowly drift across the Southern Plains
early next week.

Expect more windy and dry conditions the next couple afternoons as
a sfc low develops and intensifies over the TX Panhandle. Winds
will likely reach high wind criteria tomorrow afternoon in the
Guadalupe Mountains so will issue a High Wind Watch there. Wind
advisories may also be needed later for the adjacent plains. Fire
danger will remain elevated with the dry air and strong winds, but
high temperatures should only rise to near normal this weekend.
Temperatures may even cool a few degrees Sunday across SE NM
behind a Pacific front. See the fire wx discussion below for more
information concerning the next 2 days.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible beginning late Sunday as
the upper trough approaches. This storm system is expected to pass
just to our north so the best rain chances will remain north and
east of the region through Monday. Wrap around moisture may bring
a better chance of showers to the area Monday night and Tuesday. A
cold front will arrive late Monday ushering in much colder air for
this time of year. Strong CAA followed by a sfc ridge is expected
to bring near record cold temperatures to the area Wednesday
morning.

Upper level ridging builds in mid to late week with warming
temperatures and mostly dry conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry air will remain over the forecast area today and Sunday.  Since
an upper level storm system will move over New Mexico Sunday and
stay there through Monday, gusty westerly winds will continue to
affect the region through Monday.  RH/s are expected to drop to
around 10 percent over portions of the Presidio Valley and Big Bend
region where the warmest temperatures will occur.  Since 20 foot
wind speeds will not rise above 20 mph sustained very long in these
areas, only near critical fire weather conditions area expected
there.  The strongest 20 foot winds are expected over the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, Van Horn area, SE NM Plains and Upper Trans
Pecos.  Although RH/s will drop to near 10 to 15 percent in these
areas, a Fire Danger Statement will be issued for this afternoon
into early evening due to near normal high temperatures, greenup of
foliage and ERCs below 50.  Locations along and west of a Lamesa to
Wink to Alpine line will be included in the affected area.  Recovery
tonight will be fair to good.

It will be windier Sunday as a belt of stronger mid level winds
spreads across the region at the base of the upper low over NM.
The warmest temps and lowest minimum afternoon RH/s will be over the
Presidio Valley and Big Bend region again.  20 foot wind speeds will
be 20 mph or greater for 5 to 7 hours over most of the forecast area
to the north of the Presidio Valley and Big Bend region from late
Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon.  However, RH/s will start
rising over the Guadalupe Mountains, SE NM Plains and the Upper
Trans Pecos Sunday afternoon due to a Pacific cold front moving into
the area.  In addition, high temperatures will still be near normal
levels, much of the rest of the area had rain Friday and ERCs will
still be less than 50.  Think another Fire Danger Statement will be
utilized due to the low end threat of fires starting/spreading.
Windy conditions will persist Monday, but will winds will not be as
strong as Sunday or even Saturday.  A stronger cold front will move
into the area and push south through the Rio Grande by early
Tuesday.  Fire weather conditions will be much less elevated through
midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 82  53  80  51  /   0   0  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              85  55  85  56  /   0   0  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                82  52  75  49  /   0   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  88  58  89  57  /   0   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           84  55  84  54  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          73  50  67  44  /   0   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   78  50  75  47  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   75  43  75  47  /   0   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    83  54  83  54  /   0   0  10  20
ODESSA TX                  82  55  82  53  /   0   0  10  20
WINK TX                    84  52  82  52  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

67/29

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632
FXUS64 KMAF 250503
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1203 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A 35 to 40kt low level jet currently over most of the terminals
will shift off to the east only slowly tonight.  Therefore, some
terminals will be subjected to gusty winds mixing down suddenly
through at least 25/08Z before cooling/decoupling allows surface
winds to subside for the rest of the night.  VFR conditions will
prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.  Westerly winds will
pickup Saturday morning, and increase again Saturday afternoon to
the 15 to 20kt range with gusts perhaps as high as 30kt.  Winds will
subside around 26/01Z.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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497
FXUS64 KMAF 250320
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1020 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Latest obs indicate winds have decoupled/diminished everywhere,
and the High Wind Warning has expired.  We`ll do a final update to
remove this from the grids, and update other parameters as
necessary.  Updates out shortly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A strong shortwave trough swung across NM this morning and was
moving across W TX this afternoon.  This trough has helped to
produce some thunderstorms today.  Will have a brief pause after
this trough before another upper trough dives across NV to AZ
Saturday before swinging into NM on Sunday.  Look for upper ridging
by the middle of next week.

Had some showers and storms develop across the Permian Basin this
morning that continued into the afternoon.  Some of these storms had
brief heavy rain with minor street flooding reported in Midland and
also possible occurring in Big Spring... Snyder... and Colorado City.

As of early afternoon widespread cloud cover clearing from west to
east with stronger winds aloft mixing down to the surface.  Have cut
back on the coverage of blowing dust this afternoon but left it
across SE NM.  As a surface trough/dryline moves across the area the
wind will come around to the W/SW behind it.  A Wind Advisory is in
effect the rest of the afternoon west of a Fort Davis to Lamesa line
with a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains.  Wind speeds
should drop off after sunset.  Could see border line high wind
conditions in the Guadalupes Saturday and Sunday afternoon but not
planning on issuing a warning at this time.

The west wind will continue Saturday and Sunday with highs in the
80s.  The next cold front moves through Monday with highs falling
back into the 70s for the first of the week with 80s returning by
the end of next week.  Lows mostly in the 50s through Monday.

Expect current storms will be east of the area by this evening with
none expected over the weekend.  Storms creep back into the forecast
Sunday night and continue through Monday night along and behind the
front.  The remainder of the forecast is dry.

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions developing across SE NM and western
portions of west TX this afternoon with strong west winds and
warming temperatures. A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect for
these areas through early evening, at which point winds diminish and
fire weather conditions improve. Still expect fair overnight RH
recoveries most locations followed by another day of elevated fire
weather concerns Saturday afternoon. Although minimum RH`s and winds
look good for near critical fire weather conditions, local reports
indicate vegetation is too green to warrant a Fire Weather Watch.
Much of the same expected Sunday before a cold front moves through
Monday, alleviating fire weather concerns through at least mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 52  83  52  82  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              52  86  54  87  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                51  82  52  79  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  56  89  57  89  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           53  85  55  84  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          48  72  50  67  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   47  80  51  79  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   38  76  42  76  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    52  84  54  84  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  82  54  84  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    50  84  53  84  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44

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429
FXUS64 KMAF 250135
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
835 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Latest obs show winds beginning to diminish/decouple, and we`ll
freshen up the grids to remove the expired wind advisory. We`ll
also update other parameters as necessary based on latest
obs/model data. KGDP is still banging away at 37G44KT, and we`ll
update again when the warning expires at 03Z.  Updates out shortly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A strong shortwave trough swung across NM this morning and was
moving across W TX this afternoon.  This trough has helped to
produce some thunderstorms today.  Will have a brief pause after
this trough before another upper trough dives across NV to AZ
Saturday before swinging into NM on Sunday.  Look for upper ridging
by the middle of next week.

Had some showers and storms develop across the Permian Basin this
morning that continued into the afternoon.  Some of these storms had
brief heavy rain with minor street flooding reported in Midland and
also possible occurring in Big Spring... Snyder... and Colorado City.

As of early afternoon widespread cloud cover clearing from west to
east with stronger winds aloft mixing down to the surface.  Have cut
back on the coverage of blowing dust this afternoon but left it
across SE NM.  As a surface trough/dryline moves across the area the
wind will come around to the W/SW behind it.  A Wind Advisory is in
effect the rest of the afternoon west of a Fort Davis to Lamesa line
with a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains.  Wind speeds
should drop off after sunset.  Could see border line high wind
conditions in the Guadalupes Saturday and Sunday afternoon but not
planning on issuing a warning at this time.

The west wind will continue Saturday and Sunday with highs in the
80s.  The next cold front moves through Monday with highs falling
back into the 70s for the first of the week with 80s returning by
the end of next week.  Lows mostly in the 50s through Monday.

Expect current storms will be east of the area by this evening with
none expected over the weekend.  Storms creep back into the forecast
Sunday night and continue through Monday night along and behind the
front.  The remainder of the forecast is dry.

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions developing across SE NM and western
portions of west TX this afternoon with strong west winds and
warming temperatures. A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect for
these areas through early evening, at which point winds diminish and
fire weather conditions improve. Still expect fair overnight RH
recoveries most locations followed by another day of elevated fire
weather concerns Saturday afternoon. Although minimum RH`s and winds
look good for near critical fire weather conditions, local reports
indicate vegetation is too green to warrant a Fire Weather Watch.
Much of the same expected Sunday before a cold front moves through
Monday, alleviating fire weather concerns through at least mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 52  83  52  82  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              54  86  54  87  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                51  82  52  79  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  56  89  57  89  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           52  85  55  84  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          47  72  50  67  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   48  80  51  79  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   38  76  42  76  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  84  54  84  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  82  54  84  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    52  84  53  84  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

84/44

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253
FXUS64 KMAF 242335
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
635 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Rainfall received earlier seems to have put a damper on blowing
dust across the area, with all TAF sites remaining VFR this
evening with VFR conditions and mostly clear skies expected to
prevail over the next 24 hours. Wind gusts will diminish shortly
after sunset this evening, with sustained speeds decreasing to
around 10-15KT overnight. However, gusty west winds will return
by early Saturday afternoon, continuing through 26/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A strong shortwave trough swung across NM this morning and was
moving across W TX this afternoon.  This trough has helped to
produce some thunderstorms today.  Will have a brief pause after
this trough before another upper trough dives across NV to AZ
Saturday before swinging into NM on Sunday.  Look for upper ridging
by the middle of next week.

Had some showers and storms develop across the Permian Basin this
morning that continued into the afternoon.  Some of these storms had
brief heavy rain with minor street flooding reported in Midland and
also possible occurring in Big Spring... Snyder... and Colorado City.

As of early afternoon widespread cloud cover clearing from west to
east with stronger winds aloft mixing down to the surface.  Have cut
back on the coverage of blowing dust this afternoon but left it
across SE NM.  As a surface trough/dryline moves across the area the
wind will come around to the W/SW behind it.  A Wind Advisory is in
effect the rest of the afternoon west of a Fort Davis to Lamesa line
with a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains.  Wind speeds
should drop off after sunset.  Could see border line high wind
conditions in the Guadalupes Saturday and Sunday afternoon but not
planning on issuing a warning at this time.

The west wind will continue Saturday and Sunday with highs in the
80s.  The next cold front moves through Monday with highs falling
back into the 70s for the first of the week with 80s returning by
the end of next week.  Lows mostly in the 50s through Monday.

Expect current storms will be east of the area by this evening with
none expected over the weekend.  Storms creep back into the forecast
Sunday night and continue through Monday night along and behind the
front.  The remainder of the forecast is dry.

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions developing across SE NM and western
portions of west TX this afternoon with strong west winds and
warming temperatures. A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect for
these areas through early evening, at which point winds diminish and
fire weather conditions improve. Still expect fair overnight RH
recoveries most locations followed by another day of elevated fire
weather concerns Saturday afternoon. Although minimum RH`s and winds
look good for near critical fire weather conditions, local reports
indicate vegetation is too green to warrant a Fire Weather Watch.
Much of the same expected Sunday before a cold front moves through
Monday, alleviating fire weather concerns through at least mid week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Gaines...Loving...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

84

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743
FXUS64 KMAF 241850
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
150 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A strong shortwave trough swung across NM this morning and was
moving across W TX this afternoon.  This trough has helped to
produce some thunderstorms today.  Will have a brief pause after
this trough before another upper trough dives across NV to AZ
Saturday before swinging into NM on Sunday.  Look for upper ridging
by the middle of next week.

Had some showers and storms develop across the Permian Basin this
morning that continued into the afternoon.  Some of these storms had
brief heavy rain with minor street flooding reported in Midland and
also possible occurring in Big Spring... Snyder... and Colorado City.

As of early afternoon widespread cloud cover clearing from west to
east with stronger winds aloft mixing down to the surface.  Have cut
back on the coverage of blowing dust this afternoon but left it
across SE NM.  As a surface trough/dryline moves across the area the
wind will come around to the W/SW behind it.  A Wind Advisory is in
effect the rest of the afternoon west of a Fort Davis to Lamesa line
with a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains.  Wind speeds
should drop off after sunset.  Could see border line high wind
conditions in the Guadalupes Saturday and Sunday afternoon but not
planning on issuing a warning at this time.

The west wind will continue Saturday and Sunday with highs in the
80s.  The next cold front moves through Monday with highs falling
back into the 70s for the first of the week with 80s returning by
the end of next week.  Lows mostly in the 50s through Monday.

Expect current storms will be east of the area by this evening with
none expected over the weekend.  Storms creep back into the forecast
Sunday night and continue through Monday night along and behind the
front.  The remainder of the forecast is dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions developing across SE NM and western
portions of west TX this afternoon with strong west winds and
warming temperatures. A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect for
these areas through early evening, at which point winds diminish and
fire weather conditions improve. Still expect fair overnight RH
recoveries most locations followed by another day of elevated fire
weather concerns Saturday afternoon. Although minimum RH`s and winds
look good for near critical fire weather conditions, local reports
indicate vegetation is too green to warrant a Fire Weather Watch.
Much of the same expected Sunday before a cold front moves through
Monday, alleviating fire weather concerns through at least mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 53  83  52  82  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              56  86  54  87  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                52  82  52  79  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  56  89  57  89  /  10   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           54  85  55  84  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          49  72  50  67  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   51  80  51  79  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   41  76  42  76  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    55  84  54  84  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  54  82  54  84  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    54  84  53  84  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Gaines...Loving...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

27/72

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141
FXUS64 KMAF 241739
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1239 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is BLDU possibly
affecting terminals this afternoon. Currently have west winds
rapidly increasing at CNM, PEQ and HOB early this afternoon. Expect
all terminals to maintain gusty west winds through at least 25/00Z
this evening. Best chances for areas of BLDU will be at CNM, HOB,
PEQ and maybe even INK where occasional MVFR vis may occur. Gusts
are expected to subside later this evening. At the moment, all
convective activity remains east of terminals however some high res
models indicate TSRA developing near MAF and FST later this
afternoon as the dryline pushes east. Confidence is too low attm to
add mention but will continue to monitor and amend if/when needed.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015/

UPDATE...
Thunderstorms continue over Eastern Permian Basin.

DISCUSSION...
Dry air slower to move across the region and thunderstorms
continue to track across Eastern Permian Basin. Have updated
forecast to push storms into the afternoon and increase pops.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A large upper trough to our west is finally beginning to lift
northeast over northern Mexico this morning. A disturbance in the
southwesterly flow aloft along with the subtropical jet is providing
enough lift for showers and even a few thunderstorms across the
region currently. This activity will continue to move east and
should clear the region by early afternoon. Meanwhile...the base of
the upper trough will lift into the Southern Plains and send a belt
of strong mid level winds across the area. Some of this wind is
likely to mix to the sfc given subsidence and clearing skies behind
this mornings disturbance. The strongest winds are expected to be
roughly along and north of I-20. Will issue a Wind Advisory for much
of this area with winds expected to increase to 25 to 35 mph during
the afternoon. A High Wind Warning is also in effect for the
Guadalupe Mountains until this evening. Strong winds will likely
kick up some blowing dust and this may locally lower visibilities.
One bit of good news, temperatures today will be near to slightly
below normal which should help keep fire weather conditions from
getting too high. See fire wx discussion below for more information.

A more zonal flow develops over the region to start the weekend
ahead of a storm system expected to dig across the Intermountain
West. Look for windy and warm conditions to continue Saturday and
Sunday before the upper system arrives Monday. More wind products
will likely be needed for parts of the region this weekend. Models
differ a bit on the track of the low across Texas but do agree on a
cold front set to arrive Monday. Much cooler temperatures can be
expected behind the front with highs 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
The best rain chances associated with this system will stay to our
north and east for now unless its track changes.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase today as southwest to west winds
rise to 25 to 35 mph sustained generally along and west of a Lamesa
to Kermit to Pecos and Alpine line.  To the east of this line, wind
speeds are expected to be 15 to 25 mph sustained.  Stronger winds
will affect the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning is in
effect.  RH/s will drop to 10 to 15 percent in these areas, except
in the Guadalupe Mtns where RH/s may struggle to drop below 15
percent.  Since high temperatures will be near normal, most of these
locations had good rainfall and vegetation has greened up, and ERCs
are less then 40, think this will not be a high end fire weather
event and a Red Flag Warning is not warranted.  A few locations will
likely meet criteria of less than 15 percent RH and wind speeds of
20 mph sustained for a few hours, but think we would need much
warmer temperatures and much drier fuels for a more threatening
situation.  Therefore, we will opt to issue a Fire Danger Statement
for locations along and west of a Lamesa to Kermit to Alpine line
this afternoon and evening.  Winds should subside around sundown and
alleviate fire weather concerns.

Recovery tonight will be fair in most locations, with elevated fire
weather conditions expected over much of the forecast area on
Saturday.  Only marginal critical fire weather conditions are
expected though due to near normal high temperatures, green
vegetation and low ERC, so a Fire Weather Watch will not be issued.
More windy conditions are expected Sunday as an upper storm system
begins to pass by just north of the region.  Since we are still
expecting minimum afternoon RH/s above 10 percent and high
temperatures near normal, only elevated fire weather conditions are
expected again.  A cold front will move into the area Monday and
help alleviate fire weather concerns.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Gaines...Loving...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

27

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955
FXUS64 KMAF 241658
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1158 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Thunderstorms continue over Eastern Permian Basin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dry air slower to move across the region and thunderstorms
continue to track across Eastern Permian Basin. Have updated
forecast to push storms into the afternoon and increase pops.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas today.  However, there could be MVFR visibility in blowing
dust at most terminals this afternoon as westerly winds rise to 25
to 30kt sustained, with gusts as high as 45kt.  It appears KCNM,
KHOB, KINK and KPEQ will have the stronger winds.  Winds should
decrease around 25/01Z.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A large upper trough to our west is finally beginning to lift
northeast over northern Mexico this morning. A disturbance in the
southwesterly flow aloft along with the subtropical jet is providing
enough lift for showers and even a few thunderstorms across the
region currently. This activity will continue to move east and
should clear the region by early afternoon. Meanwhile...the base of
the upper trough will lift into the Southern Plains and send a belt
of strong mid level winds across the area. Some of this wind is
likely to mix to the sfc given subsidence and clearing skies behind
this mornings disturbance. The strongest winds are expected to be
roughly along and north of I-20. Will issue a Wind Advisory for much
of this area with winds expected to increase to 25 to 35 mph during
the afternoon. A High Wind Warning is also in effect for the
Guadalupe Mountains until this evening. Strong winds will likely
kick up some blowing dust and this may locally lower visibilities.
One bit of good news, temperatures today will be near to slightly
below normal which should help keep fire weather conditions from
getting too high. See fire wx discussion below for more information.

A more zonal flow develops over the region to start the weekend
ahead of a storm system expected to dig across the Intermountain
West. Look for windy and warm conditions to continue Saturday and
Sunday before the upper system arrives Monday. More wind products
will likely be needed for parts of the region this weekend. Models
differ a bit on the track of the low across Texas but do agree on a
cold front set to arrive Monday. Much cooler temperatures can be
expected behind the front with highs 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
The best rain chances associated with this system will stay to our
north and east for now unless its track changes.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase today as southwest to west winds
rise to 25 to 35 mph sustained generally along and west of a Lamesa
to Kermit to Pecos and Alpine line.  To the east of this line, wind
speeds are expected to be 15 to 25 mph sustained.  Stronger winds
will affect the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning is in
effect.  RH/s will drop to 10 to 15 percent in these areas, except
in the Guadalupe Mtns where RH/s may struggle to drop below 15
percent.  Since high temperatures will be near normal, most of these
locations had good rainfall and vegetation has greened up, and ERCs
are less then 40, think this will not be a high end fire weather
event and a Red Flag Warning is not warranted.  A few locations will
likely meet criteria of less than 15 percent RH and wind speeds of
20 mph sustained for a few hours, but think we would need much
warmer temperatures and much drier fuels for a more threatening
situation.  Therefore, we will opt to issue a Fire Danger Statement
for locations along and west of a Lamesa to Kermit to Alpine line
this afternoon and evening.  Winds should subside around sundown and
alleviate fire weather concerns.

Recovery tonight will be fair in most locations, with elevated fire
weather conditions expected over much of the forecast area on
Saturday.  Only marginal critical fire weather conditions are
expected though due to near normal high temperatures, green
vegetation and low ERC, so a Fire Weather Watch will not be issued.
More windy conditions are expected Sunday as an upper storm system
begins to pass by just north of the region.  Since we are still
expecting minimum afternoon RH/s above 10 percent and high
temperatures near normal, only elevated fire weather conditions are
expected again.  A cold front will move into the area Monday and
help alleviate fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  54  81  53  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              83  56  87  54  /  20   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                78  52  82  54  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  86  56  89  57  /  20  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  54  83  55  /  20   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          67  48  72  50  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   75  52  79  52  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   72  46  76  48  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  55  83  54  /  20   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  80  54  82  54  /  20   0   0   0
WINK TX                    81  54  84  53  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Gaines...Loving...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

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972
FXUS64 KMAF 241100
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas today.  However, there could be MVFR visibility in blowing
dust at most terminals this afternoon as westerly winds rise to 25
to 30kt sustained, with gusts as high as 45kt.  It appears KCNM,
KHOB, KINK and KPEQ will have the stronger winds.  Winds should
decrease around 25/01Z.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A large upper trough to our west is finally beginning to lift
northeast over northern Mexico this morning. A disturbance in the
southwesterly flow aloft along with the subtropical jet is providing
enough lift for showers and even a few thunderstorms across the
region currently. This activity will continue to move east and
should clear the region by early afternoon. Meanwhile...the base of
the upper trough will lift into the Southern Plains and send a belt
of strong mid level winds across the area. Some of this wind is
likely to mix to the sfc given subsidence and clearing skies behind
this mornings disturbance. The strongest winds are expected to be
roughly along and north of I-20. Will issue a Wind Advisory for much
of this area with winds expected to increase to 25 to 35 mph during
the afternoon. A High Wind Warning is also in effect for the
Guadalupe Mountains until this evening. Strong winds will likely
kick up some blowing dust and this may locally lower visibilities.
One bit of good news, temperatures today will be near to slightly
below normal which should help keep fire weather conditions from
getting too high. See fire wx discussion below for more information.

A more zonal flow develops over the region to start the weekend
ahead of a storm system expected to dig across the Intermountain
West. Look for windy and warm conditions to continue Saturday and
Sunday before the upper system arrives Monday. More wind products
will likely be needed for parts of the region this weekend. Models
differ a bit on the track of the low across Texas but do agree on a
cold front set to arrive Monday. Much cooler temperatures can be
expected behind the front with highs 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
The best rain chances associated with this system will stay to our
north and east for now unless its track changes.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase today as southwest to west winds
rise to 25 to 35 mph sustained generally along and west of a Lamesa
to Kermit to Pecos and Alpine line.  To the east of this line, wind
speeds are expected to be 15 to 25 mph sustained.  Stronger winds
will affect the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning is in
effect.  RH/s will drop to 10 to 15 percent in these areas, except
in the Guadalupe Mtns where RH/s may struggle to drop below 15
percent.  Since high temperatures will be near normal, most of these
locations had good rainfall and vegetation has greened up, and ERCs
are less then 40, think this will not be a high end fire weather
event and a Red Flag Warning is not warranted.  A few locations will
likely meet criteria of less than 15 percent RH and wind speeds of
20 mph sustained for a few hours, but think we would need much
warmer temperatures and much drier fuels for a more threatening
situation.  Therefore, we will opt to issue a Fire Danger Statement
for locations along and west of a Lamesa to Kermit to Alpine line
this afternoon and evening.  Winds should subside around sundown and
alleviate fire weather concerns.

Recovery tonight will be fair in most locations, with elevated fire
weather conditions expected over much of the forecast area on
Saturday.  Only marginal critical fire weather conditions are
expected though due to near normal high temperatures, green
vegetation and low ERC, so a Fire Weather Watch will not be issued.
More windy conditions are expected Sunday as an upper storm system
begins to pass by just north of the region.  Since we are still
expecting minimum afternoon RH/s above 10 percent and high
temperatures near normal, only elevated fire weather conditions are
expected again.  A cold front will move into the area Monday and
help alleviate fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  54  81  54  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              83  56  87  54  /  20   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                78  52  82  54  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  86  56  89  57  /  20  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  54  83  55  /  20   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          67  48  72  50  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   75  51  79  52  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   72  46  76  48  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  55  83  54  /  20   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  80  54  82  54  /  20   0   0   0
WINK TX                    81  54  84  53  /  10   0   0   0

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Gaines...Loving...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

67/29

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841
FXUS64 KMAF 240933
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
433 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A large upper trough to our west is finally beginning to lift
northeast over northern Mexico this morning. A disturbance in the
southwesterly flow aloft along with the subtropical jet is providing
enough lift for showers and even a few thunderstorms across the
region currently. This activity will continue to move east and
should clear the region by early afternoon. Meanwhile...the base of
the upper trough will lift into the Southern Plains and send a belt
of strong mid level winds across the area. Some of this wind is
likely to mix to the sfc given subsidence and clearing skies behind
this mornings disturbance. The strongest winds are expected to be
roughly along and north of I-20. Will issue a Wind Advisory for much
of this area with winds expected to increase to 25 to 35 mph during
the afternoon. A High Wind Warning is also in effect for the
Guadalupe Mountains until this evening. Strong winds will likely
kick up some blowing dust and this may locally lower visibilities.
One bit of good news, temperatures today will be near to slightly
below normal which should help keep fire weather conditions from
getting too high. See fire wx discussion below for more information.

A more zonal flow develops over the region to start the weekend
ahead of a storm system expected to dig across the Intermountain
West. Look for windy and warm conditions to continue Saturday and
Sunday before the upper system arrives Monday. More wind products
will likely be needed for parts of the region this weekend. Models
differ a bit on the track of the low across Texas but do agree on a
cold front set to arrive Monday. Much cooler temperatures can be
expected behind the front with highs 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
The best rain chances associated with this system will stay to our
north and east for now unless its track changes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase today as southwest to west winds
rise to 25 to 35 mph sustained generally along and west of a Lamesa
to Kermit to Pecos and Alpine line.  To the east of this line, wind
speeds are expected to be 15 to 25 mph sustained.  Stronger winds
will affect the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning is in
effect.  RH/s will drop to 10 to 15 percent in these areas, except
in the Guadalupe Mtns where RH/s may struggle to drop below 15
percent.  Since high temperatures will be near normal, most of these
locations had good rainfall and vegetation has greened up, and ERCs
are less then 40, think this will not be a high end fire weather
event and a Red Flag Warning is not warranted.  A few locations will
likely meet criteria of less than 15 percent RH and wind speeds of
20 mph sustained for a few hours, but think we would need much
warmer temperatures and much drier fuels for a more threatening
situation.  Therefore, we will opt to issue a Fire Danger Statement
for locations along and west of a Lamesa to Kermit to Alpine line
this afternoon and evening.  Winds should subside around sundown and
alleviate fire weather concerns.

Recovery tonight will be fair in most locations, with elevated fire
weather conditions expected over much of the forecast area on
Saturday.  Only marginal critical fire weather conditions are
expected though due to near normal high temperatures, green
vegetation and low ERC, so a Fire Weather Watch will not be issued.
More windy conditions are expected Sunday as an upper storm system
begins to pass by just north of the region.  Since we are still
expecting minimum afternoon RH/s above 10 percent and high
temperatures near normal, only elevated fire weather conditions are
expected again.  A cold front will move into the area Monday and
help alleviate fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  54  81  54  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              83  56  87  54  /  20   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                78  52  82  54  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  86  56  89  57  /  20  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  54  83  55  /  20   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          67  48  72  50  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   75  51  79  52  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   72  46  76  48  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  55  83  54  /  20   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  80  54  82  54  /  20   0   0   0
WINK TX                    81  54  84  53  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Gaines...Loving...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

67/29

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354
FXUS64 KMAF 240522
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Gusty westerly winds are occurring with virga showers moving
northeastward across the Permian Basin.  Expect these winds to
subside at KMAF by 24/06Z to 24/07Z, with other terminals already
indicating decreasing winds.  VFR conditions are expected areawide
tonight and Friday.  However, gusty southwest to west winds will
develop Friday morning and strengthen Friday afternoon.  Sustained
winds of 25 to 30kt could affect KCNM and KHOB in particular, while
the rest of the terminals could see 20 to 25kt sustained.  Gusts
will range from 35 to 45kt.  Blowing dust could drop visibility to
MVFR too.  Winds should subside around 25/01Z, or shortly
thereafter.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from 8 AM MDT Friday through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning through
     this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe
     Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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752
FXUS64 KMAF 232341
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
641 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 24/00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Prevailing VFR conditions will continue at all area terminals
through 25/00Z. Winds, however, will continue to be gusty out of
the southwest overnight, and increase in speeds by mid morning
Friday. Sustained winds near 20kts with gusts AOA 30kts are
forecast, thus there`s the potential for a sig crosswind
component for GA. Extensive mid to high-level cloudiness is
forecast areawide, and even some -SHRA is possible at KPEQ and
KFST this evening. Look for skies to clear during the afternoon
and evening hours Friday, with winds dropping off to 10kts or
below after sunset Friday evening.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Marfa Plateau.


&&

$$

70

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817
FXUS64 KMAF 231903
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
203 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
An upper trough moving across Mexico will swing east today with a
shortwave moving across the Panhandle Friday.  This shortwave
should just be a wind producer.  A stronger upper trough will dive
down across the Intermountain West on Saturday and swing into the
region Sunday.  This second trough could bring another shot of rain
to the area.

There is a good fetch of Pacific Moisture flowing up over the
region resulting in lots of thick mid and high clouds today
streaming up from the SW.  These clouds will continue overnight
keeping lows elevated before decreasing from west to east on
Friday.  Lows tonight will generally in the 50s with some 40s west
and 60s along the Rio Grande.  Warm daytime temps will continue
through the weekend with highs in the 80s.  A cold front will move
through Monday with the first half of next week a little cooler
with highs in the 70s.

As the shortwave trough moves across NM and TX Friday it will spin
up a deep surface low that moves across the TX/OK Panhandles.  This
low will bring windy conditions to the area.  Currently have a Wind
Advisory in effect this afternoon and early evening for Davis
Mountains... Big Bend... and Marfa Plateau.  Also have a High Wind
Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains Friday... some adjacent locations
may end up with a Wind Advisory on Friday.  The gusty west wind
may produce areas of blowing dust Friday in the afternoon generally
along and north of I-20.

The SWODY1 clips the eastern CWA with marginal storms for the rest
of today and tonight.  The cloud cover has limited afternoon heating
and destabilization and so far have not had any storms develop over
the area.  Highest pops tonight will be for the SE.  On Friday most
storms will be east of the area.  Next chance for rain will be next
week with the approach of the upper trough.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High clouds across the area today have inhibited heating and mixing,
therefore relative humidities this afternoon will stay above 15
percent. Tomorrow the high clouds will move east and stronger
westerly winds will push drier air into the area, but recent rains
have started the green up of fuels. We may see marginally critical
meteorological fire weather conditions Friday across southeast New
Mexico and parts of west Texas but the green fuels will likely
prevent the issuance of a Red Flag Warning but rather a Fire Danger
Statement. A Red Flag Warning may be issued if minimum afternoon
humdities drop below 10 percent. West winds ahead of an upper level
low will continue the marginal or near critical fire weather
conditions into the weekend which may require the issuance of
additional Fire Danger Statements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  80  53  84  /  20  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              61  84  56  88  /  30  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                52  80  51  83  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  66  89  59  89  /  40  20  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           63  86  56  87  /  30  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          47  68  50  73  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  78  50  81  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   48  75  39  78  /  30  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    59  82  54  85  /  30  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  58  82  56  85  /  30  10   0   0
WINK TX                    58  85  52  87  /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Marfa Plateau.


&&

$$

10/72

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795
FXUS64 KMAF 231732
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1232 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIGs have dissipated this afternoon and conditions will
remain VFR through this TAF period. Winds are expected to increase
and become gusty later but BKN high clouds could inhibit mixing
keeping winds a little lower than forecast. Scattered showers are
expected mainly around FST through 00Z before moving east of the
area.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Southwesterly flow aloft continues across the region as an upper
trough slowly moves east along the U.S./Mexico border. Meanwhile, a
weak cold front/outflow boundary sits across the northern Permian
Basin this morning with a dryline retreating west over the Trans
Pecos and southern Permian Basin. The front will lift north later
today as sfc low pressure strengthens along the Front Range in
response to the mentioned trough moving east. Very similar to
yesterday, the dryline will mix east across the Permian Basin this
afternoon with dry and windy conditions behind it. A sfc high over
northern Mexico combined with the leeside low will cause a tight
pressure gradient over the region this afternoon. This will lead to
breezy conditions areawide with the strongest winds expected to be
across the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau. A Wind Advisory is in
effect for this area as sustained winds over 30 mph will be
possible. The dryline will likely push to the eastern edge our our
CWA border by late afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible along
and east of the dryline and conditions will again be ripe for any of
these storms to become severe.

At the same time, large scale lift will increase across northern
Mexico and far West Texas as the upper trough moves closer. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon
over Mexico and move into the Presidio Valley and Marfa Plateau
during the evening. Strong winds will be possible with these storms
given a dry sub-cloud layer. Scattered convection will spread
northeast across the Permian Basin overnight as the upper trough
ejects into the Southern Plains. This activity will move east of the
area fairly quickly Friday morning.

Strong mid level winds associated with the base of the upper trough
will mix down across the area Friday afternoon. This will result
in gusty westerly winds, likely enough for a wind advisory for much
of the region. A High Wind Watch is in effect for the Guadalupe
Mountains where sustained winds will be >40 mph.

A strong subtropical jet across the area today will lead to an
abundance of high clouds keeping high temperatures slightly lower.
Dry and breezy conditions will continue into the weekend as we find
the region in between storm systems. Long range models differ with
the evolution of an upper low expected to cut off from the main flow
early next week. The trend of the models has been to cool
temperatures while increasing rain chances.

FIRE WEATHER...

WV imagery shows a deep upper trough off the Baja coast, up against
a ridge extending from the Big Bend NW to MT.  SW flow aloft over
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico is drawing a healthy fetch of
subtropical moisture over the region.  Sfc analysis shows the
dryline extending from KLES-KBPG-KST1-K6R6.  Latest models are still
on tap to develop a leeside sfc trough on the Front Range later
today in advance of the Baja system, veering 20` winds to the SW and
increasing them to critical levels, mainly from the Guadalupe`s SE
thru the Davis/Apache Mtns.  Even so, RH`s will remain abv 15%
everywhere but the SE NM Plains, where a few hrs of critical RH`s
will be possible.  Forecast Fire Danger will be high to extreme.
However, critical RH`s and 20` winds do not look to coincide for
more than a couple of hours at best, so we`ll forgo any warning
products and issue a RFD for the SE NM Plains instead.  We`ll leave
out the Guadalupe`s, as temps there will be below normal. Further
south, not only are below normal temps expected, but cloud cover is
expected to be rather extensive.

Friday, the Baja trough will swing thru the region, w/even stronger
20` SW winds expected, resulting in critical RH`s for much of the
area, especially plains.  Blo-normal temps in the mtns should keep
RH`s above critical thresholds there.  However, field reports of
considerable green-up and ERC`s below the 50th percentile render
normal Red Flag criteria moot attm.  In addition, rain today/tonight
may dampen things up a bit.  Thus, we`ll let the current Fire Wx
Watch continue attm, and re-evaluate w/this afternoon`s package.

Critical winds and RH`s will be possible thru at least Monday, as a
secondary trough swings thru the area Sunday night.  However, fuel
moistures may once again mitigate critical fire wx conditions, which
will need to be re-evaluated daily.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Marfa Plateau.


&&

$$

10

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895
FXUS64 KMAF 231102
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
602 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours. Buffer soundings
develop LIFR stratus at KMAF for an hr or so around 12Z, but with a
thick CS canopy overhead, this will be discounted. Otherwise,
leeside sfc trough development later today will induce gusty SW
flow all terminals, w/plenty of mid-lvl moisture srn terminals.
Forecast soundings develop a 8-9kft agl cu field over KCNM, KMAF,
KINK, and KFST during the afternoon/evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Southwesterly flow aloft continues across the region as an upper
trough slowly moves east along the U.S./Mexico border. Meanwhile, a
weak cold front/outflow boundary sits across the northern Permian
Basin this morning with a dryline retreating west over the Trans
Pecos and southern Permian Basin. The front will lift north later
today as sfc low pressure strengthens along the Front Range in
response to the mentioned trough moving east. Very similar to
yesterday, the dryline will mix east across the Permian Basin this
afternoon with dry and windy conditions behind it. A sfc high over
northern Mexico combined with the leeside low will cause a tight
pressure gradient over the region this afternoon. This will lead to
breezy conditions areawide with the strongest winds expected to be
across the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau. A Wind Advisory is in
effect for this area as sustained winds over 30 mph will be
possible. The dryline will likely push to the eastern edge our our
CWA border by late afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible along
and east of the dryline and conditions will again be ripe for any of
these storms to become severe.

At the same time, large scale lift will increase across northern
Mexico and far West Texas as the upper trough moves closer. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon
over Mexico and move into the Presidio Valley and Marfa Plateau
during the evening. Strong winds will be possible with these storms
given a dry sub-cloud layer. Scattered convection will spread
northeast across the Permian Basin overnight as the upper trough
ejects into the Southern Plains. This activity will move east of the
area fairly quickly Friday morning.

Strong mid level winds associated with the base of the upper trough
will mix down across the area Friday afternoon. This will result
in gusty westerly winds, likely enough for a wind advisory for much
of the region. A High Wind Watch is in effect for the Guadalupe
Mountains where sustained winds will be >40 mph.

A strong subtropical jet across the area today will lead to an
abundance of high clouds keeping high temperatures slightly lower.
Dry and breezy conditions will continue into the weekend as we find
the region in between storm systems. Long range models differ with
the evolution of an upper low expected to cut off from the main flow
early next week. The trend of the models has been to cool
temperatures while increasing rain chances.

FIRE WEATHER...

WV imagery shows a deep upper trough off the Baja coast, up against
a ridge extending from the Big Bend NW to MT.  SW flow aloft over
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico is drawing a healthy fetch of
subtropical moisture over the region.  Sfc analysis shows the
dryline extending from KLES-KBPG-KST1-K6R6.  Latest models are still
on tap to develop a leeside sfc trough on the Front Range later
today in advance of the Baja system, veering 20` winds to the SW and
increasing them to critical levels, mainly from the Guadalupe`s SE
thru the Davis/Apache Mtns.  Even so, RH`s will remain abv 15%
everywhere but the SE NM Plains, where a few hrs of critical RH`s
will be possible.  Forecast Fire Danger will be high to extreme.
However, critical RH`s and 20` winds do not look to coincide for
more than a couple of hours at best, so we`ll forgo any warning
products and issue a RFD for the SE NM Plains instead.  We`ll leave
out the Guadalupe`s, as temps there will be below normal. Further
south, not only are below normal temps expected, but cloud cover is
expected to be rather extensive.

Friday, the Baja trough will swing thru the region, w/even stronger
20` SW winds expected, resulting in critical RH`s for much of the
area, especially plains.  Blo-normal temps in the mtns should keep
RH`s above critical thresholds there.  However, field reports of
considerable green-up and ERC`s below the 50th percentile render
normal Red Flag criteria moot attm.  In addition, rain today/tonight
may dampen things up a bit.  Thus, we`ll let the current Fire Wx
Watch continue attm, and re-evaluate w/this afternoon`s package.

Critical winds and RH`s will be possible thru at least Monday, as a
secondary trough swings thru the area Sunday night.  However, fuel
moistures may once again mitigate critical fire wx conditions, which
will need to be re-evaluated daily.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Marfa Plateau.


&&

$$

44

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663
FXUS64 KMAF 230909
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
409 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Southwesterly flow aloft continues across the region as an upper
trough slowly moves east along the U.S./Mexico border. Meanwhile, a
weak cold front/outflow boundary sits across the northern Permian
Basin this morning with a dryline retreating west over the Trans
Pecos and southern Permian Basin. The front will lift north later
today as sfc low pressure strengthens along the Front Range in
response to the mentioned trough moving east. Very similar to
yesterday, the dryline will mix east across the Permian Basin this
afternoon with dry and windy conditions behind it. A sfc high over
northern Mexico combined with the leeside low will cause a tight
pressure gradient over the region this afternoon. This will lead to
breezy conditions areawide with the strongest winds expected to be
across the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau. A Wind Advisory is in
effect for this area as sustained winds over 30 mph will be
possible. The dryline will likely push to the eastern edge our our
CWA border by late afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible along
and east of the dryline and conditions will again be ripe for any of
these storms to become severe.

At the same time, large scale lift will increase across northern
Mexico and far West Texas as the upper trough moves closer. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon
over Mexico and move into the Presidio Valley and Marfa Plateau
during the evening. Strong winds will be possible with these storms
given a dry sub-cloud layer. Scattered convection will spread
northeast across the Permian Basin overnight as the upper trough
ejects into the Southern Plains. This activity will move east of the
area fairly quickly Friday morning.

Strong mid level winds associated with the base of the upper trough
will mix down across the area Friday afternoon. This will result
in gusty westerly winds, likely enough for a wind advisory for much
of the region. A High Wind Watch is in effect for the Guadalupe
Mountains where sustained winds will be >40 mph.

A strong subtropical jet across the area today will lead to an
abundance of high clouds keeping high temperatures slightly lower.
Dry and breezy conditions will continue into the weekend as we find
the region in between storm systems. Long range models differ with
the evolution of an upper low expected to cut off from the main flow
early next week. The trend of the models has been to cool
temperatures while increasing rain chances.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WV imagery shows a deep upper trough off the Baja coast, up against
a ridge extending from the Big Bend NW to MT.  SW flow aloft over
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico is drawing a healthy fetch of
subtropical moisture over the region.  Sfc analysis shows the
dryline extending from KLES-KBPG-KST1-K6R6.  Latest models are still
on tap to develop a leeside sfc trough on the Front Range later
today in advance of the Baja system, veering 20` winds to the SW and
increasing them to critical levels, mainly from the Guadalupe`s SE
thru the Davis/Apache Mtns.  Even so, RH`s will remain abv 15%
everywhere but the SE NM Plains, where a few hrs of critical RH`s
will be possible.  Forecast Fire Danger will be high to extreme.
However, critical RH`s and 20` winds do not look to coincide for
more than a couple of hours at best, so we`ll forgo any warning
products and issue a RFD for the SE NM Plains instead.  We`ll leave
out the Guadalupe`s, as temps there will be below normal. Further
south, not only are below normal temps expected, but cloud cover is
expected to be rather extensive.

Friday, the Baja trough will swing thru the region, w/even stronger
20` SW winds expected, resulting in critical RH`s for much of the
area, especially plains.  Blo-normal temps in the mtns should keep
RH`s above critical thresholds there.  However, field reports of
considerable green-up and ERC`s below the 50th percentile render
normal Red Flag criteria moot attm.  In addition, rain today/tonight
may dampen things up a bit.  Thus, we`ll let the current Fire Wx
Watch continue attm, and re-evaluate w/this afternoon`s package.

Critical winds and RH`s will be possible thru at least Monday, as a
secondary trough swings thru the area Sunday night.  However, fuel
moistures may once again mitigate critical fire wx conditions, which
will need to be re-evaluated daily.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 83  61  81  53  /  10  20  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              87  63  85  56  /  10  30  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                82  55  80  51  /   0  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  86  65  89  59  /  10  30  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  62  84  55  /  10  30  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          72  51  69  50  /   0  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  56  78  50  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   71  52  76  43  /  10  30  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    84  63  83  54  /  10  30  10   0
ODESSA TX                  84  62  83  56  /  10  30  10   0
WINK TX                    84  61  84  51  /  10  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Marfa Plateau.


&&

$$

44/29

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027
FXUS64 KMAF 230542
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1242 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours. Buffer soundings
develop LIFR stratus at KMAF for a couple of hrs around 12Z, but
with a thick CS canopy overhead, this will be discounted.
Otherwise, leeside sfc trough development later today will induce
gusty SW flow all terminals, w/plenty of mid-lvl moisture srn
terminals. Forecast soundings develop a 9kft agl cu field over
KMAF, KINK, and KFST during the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 23/00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

At press time, the triple point of the dryline and an outflow
boundary from nocturnal storms over OK last night looks to be
near Lamesa. This outflow boundary is not expected to make it
much further south...meanwhile the dryline is forecast to make
a weak return westward.  Aloft, extensive cirriform cloudiness
associated with the subtropical jet will persist over the
southern high plains. Model BUFR soundings suggest only a very
shallow moisture return at KMAF, not enough for ceilings but maybe
for a brief period of MVFR visibility in patchy fog around
sunrise. This will hinge on whether there`ll be thin spots in
the cirrus aloft to permit decent radiative cooling and subsequent
fog formation. Winds will die off around sunset and should remain
below 11 kts, but pick up again from the west by late in the
morning, and may increase to 15kts with gusts over 25kts possible
by late afternoon.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

44

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766
FXUS64 KMAF 222350
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
650 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 23/00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

At press time, the triple point of the dryline and an outflow
boundary from nocturnal storms over OK last night looks to be
near Lamesa. This outflow boundary is not expected to make it
much further south...meanwhile the dryline is forecast to make
a weak return westward.  Aloft, extensive cirriform cloudiness
associated with the subtropical jet will persist over the
southern high plains. Model BUFR soundings suggest only a very
shallow moisture return at KMAF, not enough for ceilings but maybe
for a brief period of MVFR visibility in patchy fog around
sunrise. This will hinge on whether there`ll be thin spots in
the cirrus aloft to permit decent radiative cooling and subsequent
fog formation. Winds will die off around sunset and should remain
below 11 kts, but pick up again from the west by late in the
morning, and may increase to 15kts with gusts over 25kts possible
by late afternoon.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

70

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941
FXUS64 KMAF 221952
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
249 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, there is an upper trough over the Great Lakes region with
another upper trough just off the coast of California.  The CWA is
under west to southwest flow aloft with a surface trough across
southeast New Mexico and West Texas.  This surface trough appears
like it will be stronger than yesterday.  Surface winds will once
again be elevated out of the west to southwest with downslope
warming so temperatures today should be a little higher than
yesterday.  The NAM12 is showing the dryline being pushed to the
Western Low Rolling Plains this afternoon while the GFS pushes it
completely east of the CWA.  A shortwave is expected to move over
the area this afternoon increasing upper lift.  If the NAM12 is
correct, CAPE values across the Western Low Rolling Plains and the
northern Permian Basin will be 1,000+ J/Kg.  Mid-level lapse rates
will be decent across this area and 0 to 6 km bulk shear will be
excellent areawide.  So, if storms develop across this area this
afternoon, they have the potential to become severe.

The west coast upper trough will move closer to the region on
Thursday and a shortwave will pass over the area.  The NAM80 is
showing increased 500 mb omega values across the Davis Mountains
into the Lower Trans Pecos Thursday afternoon.  Storms will be
possible across the Davis Mountains, Lower Trans Pecos, and the Big
Bend area on Thursday although it does not appear that they will be
severe since CAPE will be very low and lapse rates will struggle to
reach 7 degrees Celsius/Km across this area.  On Friday, the upper
trough will pass over the Central Plains with the base of the trough
passing over the CWA.  Strong winds in the jet associated with the
base of the upper trough will mix down to the surface resulting in
gusty west winds across the CWA Friday afternoon.  This will result
in strong winds in the Guadalupe Mountains on Friday and a High Wind
Watch/Warning may need to be issued for this area if forecast trends
continue.  Another upper trough will be over the western conus on
Saturday with southwest flow aloft over the region.  West to
southwest downslope surface winds will continue across the area on
Saturday allowing for temperatures to remain above normal and
keeping conditions dry.  The GFS is showing this upper trough over
New Mexico on Sunday with a Pacific front passing through the area.
On Monday this trough will be passing over the area with the
precipitation staying to the north of the CWA.  If this is true,
then another dry and windy day can be expected for West Texas on
Monday.  The cold front associated with this trough appears to come
into the area Monday night although models are not showing much of a
temperature drop with this front.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Winds have picked up in the Guadalupe Mountains as expected with red
flag weather conditions now being observed. Therefore the Red Flag
Warning currently in effect will be allowed to continue to it`s
expiration time.

The latest word from across the region is that the green up of fuels
has begun, including in southeastern New Mexico where RAWS stations
in the Guadalupe Mountains have been switched to green up mode. This
will affect fire weather products from here on out as green fuels
lessen the risk of critical fire weather conditions. Days where
there are borderline red flag conditions will likely be handled with
a Fire Danger Statement as opposed to a Red Flag Warning due to this
green up. The Fire Weather Watch for Friday may be one of these
situations where minimum humidities of 12-15% and winds around 25
mph may not be enough to warrant a Red Flag Warning despite
technically reaching criteria. We will continue the watch at this
time in case models trend drier for Friday but it appears a warning
may not be needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  84  60  81  /  10  10  20   0
BIG SPRING TX              58  86  62  85  /  10  10  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                52  83  53  80  /  10  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  65  89  65  89  /  10  20  30  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  85  62  84  /  10  10  30  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  73  49  70  /   0  10  20   0
HOBBS NM                   50  82  54  78  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   46  75  49  76  /  10  20  30   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  85  62  84  /  10  10  20   0
ODESSA TX                  57  85  61  82  /  10  10  20   0
WINK TX                    54  86  59  85  /  10  10  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

10/80

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390
FXUS64 KMAF 221706
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1206 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with light southwest to west winds with occasional
afternoon gusts this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough currently to our west will bring a variety of
weather concerns over the next several days including thunderstorms
and high fire danger. Southwesterly flow aloft along with a lee
sfc trough has allowed for strong low-level southerly flow and Gulf
moisture to advance west across the region this morning. Dewpoints
have risen into the upper 50`s as far north as the Permian Basin and
west to the Pecos River. Low clouds have also developed helping
keep temperatures mainly in the 60`s this morning.

An embedded disturbance in the mid level flow will move across the
Southern Plains today. This along with strong mixing will cause the
dryline to surge east this afternoon. Meanwhile, the above
disturbance will help initiate thunderstorms along a southward
moving cold front over the TX Panhandle later today. Some of these
storms may impact the Western Low Rolling Plains this evening.
Strong instability and shear will be available if storms are able to
form or move into this area. For now will keep isolated PoPs in and
monitor what happens to our north throughout the day.

The upper trough will begin to lift northeast late Thursday, moving
just north of our region Friday. A few showers and thunderstorms
will be possible late Thursday into early Friday morning...however
they won`t have much in the way of low level moisture to work with.
By Friday afternoon, strong westerly winds are expected to develop
over most of the region as a sfc low intensifies over SE CO. These
winds combined with warm temperatures and low rh`s will cause very
high fire danger. See fire weather discussion below. The strong
winds will also likely cause areas of blowing dust which may lower
visibilities during the afternoon.

Temperatures will warm into the 80`s to near 90 today and expect
similar conditions to round out the week. Models diverge a bit w.r.t
the upper pattern this weekend into next week, but do agree in a
cool down by the middle of the week.

FIRE WEATHER...

A surface trough set to develop over the South Plains today will
veer 20` winds to the west, advecting PBL moisture east and
resulting in 5-10% afternoon RH`s west of a dryline forecast to
extend from Snyder to Sanderson by late afternoon.  Out west,
forecast soundings for KGDP mix to around 7H, where SW 20-30kt flow
is forecast.  These increased winds should affect mainly ridgetops
of the Guadalupe`s and Delawares extending down into TXZ057.  W/very
high to extreme Fire danger anticipated, and max RFTIs of 7, we will
issue a Red Flag Warning for those areas.  In the Southeast New
Mexico Plains, 20` winds do not look to meet criteria, so it will be
dropped from the current Watch.

Thursday, temps RHs will be a little higher due to anticipated
cooler temperatures and a chance of convection, although leeside
troughing over the front range will result in SW 20` winds that will
likely exceed 20 mph over the western fire zones.  Attm, forecast
RFTIs look to be low, and Thursday looks like a good candidate for a
RFD.

Friday, however, begins a string of likely critical fire weather
days, extending possibly through Tuesday, as an upper-lvl trough
passes just north of the FA Friday, followed by another on Sunday
night.  By Friday, unless significant wetting rains occur Thu/Thu
night, primed and low fuel moistures should result in very high to
extreme Fire Danger over much of the FA, especially west.  Leeside
troughing in advance of the aforementioned troughs will maintain
SW-W 20` winds, and thus low RHs each afternoon and poor recovery
each night.  For now, we`ll issue a Fire Weather Watch for Friday
covering the same areas as the current watch.  Areas affected Friday
afternoon will likely extend east and south of the watch area, but
to avoid complicating things, we`d prefer to restrict the watch to
the current areas, and models differ somewhat on the extent of
critical fire wx criteria.  Upgraded warnings/watches will likely
continue into next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

10

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713
FXUS64 KMAF 221045
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
545 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Only concerns this forecast will be stratus this morning, w/IFR
cigs at KHOB...and MVFR at KMAF. Latest models/buffer soundings
suggest stratus will scatter out by late morning. All other
terminals should remain VFR next 24 hours. Otherwise, sfc flow
will veer to W after sunrise and become gusty, w/convective temps
way too warm for cu development. Flow should back and relax after
sunset.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough currently to our west will bring a variety of
weather concerns over the next several days including thunderstorms
and high fire danger. Southwesterly flow aloft along with a lee
sfc trough has allowed for strong low-level southerly flow and Gulf
moisture to advance west across the region this morning. Dewpoints
have risen into the upper 50`s as far north as the Permian Basin and
west to the Pecos River. Low clouds have also developed helping
keep temperatures mainly in the 60`s this morning.

An embedded disturbance in the mid level flow will move across the
Southern Plains today. This along with strong mixing will cause the
dryline to surge east this afternoon. Meanwhile, the above
disturbance will help initiate thunderstorms along a southward
moving cold front over the TX Panhandle later today. Some of these
storms may impact the Western Low Rolling Plains this evening.
Strong instability and shear will be available if storms are able to
form or move into this area. For now will keep isolated PoPs in and
monitor what happens to our north throughout the day.

The upper trough will begin to lift northeast late Thursday, moving
just north of our region Friday. A few showers and thunderstorms
will be possible late Thursday into early Friday morning...however
they won`t have much in the way of low level moisture to work with.
By Friday afternoon, strong westerly winds are expected to develop
over most of the region as a sfc low intensifies over SE CO. These
winds combined with warm temperatures and low rh`s will cause very
high fire danger. See fire weather discussion below. The strong
winds will also likely cause areas of blowing dust which may lower
visibilities during the afternoon.

Temperatures will warm into the 80`s to near 90 today and expect
similar conditions to round out the week. Models diverge a bit w.r.t
the upper pattern this weekend into next week, but do agree in a
cool down by the middle of the week.

FIRE WEATHER...

A surface trough set to develop over the South Plains today will
veer 20` winds to the west, advecting PBL moisture east and
resulting in 5-10% afternoon RH`s west of a dryline forecast to
extend from Snyder to Sanderson by late afternoon.  Out west,
forecast soundings for KGDP mix to around 7H, where SW 20-30kt flow
is forecast.  These increased winds should affect mainly ridgetops
of the Guadalupe`s and Delawares extending down into TXZ057.  W/very
high to extreme Fire danger anticipated, and max RFTIs of 7, we will
issue a Red Flag Warning for those areas.  In the Southeast New
Mexico Plains, 20` winds do not look to meet criteria, so it will be
dropped from the current Watch.

Thursday, temps RHs will be a little higher due to anticipated
cooler temperatures and a chance of convection, although leeside
troughing over the front range will result in SW 20` winds that will
likely exceed 20 mph over the western fire zones.  Attm, forecast
RFTIs look to be low, and Thursday looks like a good candidate for a
RFD.

Friday, however, begins a string of likely critical fire weather
days, extending possibly through Tuesday, as an upper-lvl trough
passes just north of the FA Friday, followed by another on Sunday
night.  By Friday, unless significant wetting rains occur Thu/Thu
night, primed and low fuel moistures should result in very high to
extreme Fire Danger over much of the FA, especially west.  Leeside
troughing in advance of the aforementioned troughs will maintain
SW-W 20` winds, and thus low RHs each afternoon and poor recovery
each night.  For now, we`ll issue a Fire Weather Watch for Friday
covering the same areas as the current watch.  Areas affected Friday
afternoon will likely extend east and south of the watch area, but
to avoid complicating things, we`d prefer to restrict the watch to
the current areas, and models differ somewhat on the extent of
critical fire wx criteria.  Upgraded warnings/watches will likely
continue into next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

44

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797
FXUS64 KMAF 220914
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
414 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough currently to our west will bring a variety of
weather concerns over the next several days including thunderstorms
and high fire danger. Southwesterly flow aloft along with a lee
sfc trough has allowed for strong low-level southerly flow and Gulf
moisture to advance west across the region this morning. Dewpoints
have risen into the upper 50`s as far north as the Permian Basin and
west to the Pecos River. Low clouds have also developed helping
keep temperatures mainly in the 60`s this morning.

An embedded disturbance in the mid level flow will move across the
Southern Plains today. This along with strong mixing will cause the
dryline to surge east this afternoon. Meanwhile, the above
disturbance will help initiate thunderstorms along a southward
moving cold front over the TX Panhandle later today. Some of these
storms may impact the Western Low Rolling Plains this evening.
Strong instability and shear will be available if storms are able to
form or move into this area. For now will keep isolated PoPs in and
monitor what happens to our north throughout the day.

The upper trough will begin to lift northeast late Thursday, moving
just north of our region Friday. A few showers and thunderstorms
will be possible late Thursday into early Friday morning...however
they won`t have much in the way of low level moisture to work with.
By Friday afternoon, strong westerly winds are expected to develop
over most of the region as a sfc low intensifies over SE CO. These
winds combined with warm temperatures and low rh`s will cause very
high fire danger. See fire weather discussion below. The strong
winds will also likely cause areas of blowing dust which may lower
visibilities during the afternoon.

Temperatures will warm into the 80`s to near 90 today and expect
similar conditions to round out the week. Models diverge a bit w.r.t
the upper pattern this weekend into next week, but do agree in a
cool down by the middle of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A surface trough set to develop over the South Plains today will
veer 20` winds to the west, advecting PBL moisture east and
resulting in 5-10% afternoon RH`s west of a dryline forecast to
extend from Snyder to Sanderson by late afternoon.  Out west,
forecast soundings for KGDP mix to around 7H, where SW 20-30kt flow
is forecast.  These increased winds should affect mainly ridgetops
of the Guadalupe`s and Delawares extending down into TXZ057.  W/very
high to extreme Fire danger anticipated, and max RFTIs of 7, we will
issue a Red Flag Warning for those areas.  In the Southeast New
Mexico Plains, 20` winds do not look to meet criteria, so it will be
dropped from the current Watch.

Thursday, temps RHs will be a little higher due to anticipated
cooler temperatures and a chance of convection, although leeside
troughing over the front range will result in SW 20` winds that will
likely exceed 20 mph over the western fire zones.  Attm, forecast
RFTIs look to be low, and Thursday looks like a good candidate for a
RFD.

Friday, however, begins a string of likely critical fire weather
days, extending possibly through Tuesday, as an upper-lvl trough
passes just north of the FA Friday, followed by another on Sunday
night.  By Friday, unless significant wetting rains occur Thu/Thu
night, primed and low fuel moistures should result in very high to
extreme Fire Danger over much of the FA, especially west.  Leeside
troughing in advance of the aforementioned troughs will maintain
SW-W 20` winds, and thus low RHs each afternoon and poor recovery
each night.  For now, we`ll issue a Fire Weather Watch for Friday
covering the same areas as the current watch.  Areas affected Friday
afternoon will likely extend east and south of the watch area, but
to avoid complicating things, we`d prefer to restrict the watch to
the current areas, and models differ somewhat on the extent of
critical fire wx criteria.  Upgraded warnings/watches will likely
continue into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 86  54  84  57  /   0  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              88  58  86  61  /  10  10  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                85  50  83  55  /   0  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  91  63  91  64  /  10  10  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           89  58  85  59  /   0  10  10  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  53  73  49  /   0   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   81  50  82  51  /   0  10  10  20
MARFA TX                   79  46  75  49  /   0  10  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    88  56  85  60  /  10  10  10  20
ODESSA TX                  86  57  85  61  /   0  10  10  20
WINK TX                    90  51  88  55  /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

44/29

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491
FXUS64 KMAF 220530
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Only concerns this forecast will be stratus developing up from the
SE, as seen on current satellite loop. Latest models/buffer
soundings suggest LIFR cigs developing at KMAF over the next few
hrs, and MVFR at KINK. KHOB/KFST remain questionable, depending on
model consulted, so we`ll keep cigs out of there for now.
KCNM/KPEQ should remain VFR next 24 hours. Otherwise, sfc flow
will veer to W after sunrise and become gusty, w/convective temps
way too warm for cu development. Flow should back and relax after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2015/

UPDATE...

Please see the forecast update below.

DISCUSSION...

This evening`s RAOB from KMAF showed a cap too stout to break.
While one updraft managed to sustain itself over Mitchell Co.
earlier, the collapse of the PBL should put chances of surface-
based convection to bed. CAMs do suggest a small chance of
SHRA/TSRA affecting the southeastern New Mexican plains tonight,
and we`ve held some low-order PoPs there. Next question involves
the westward translation of the dryline. Moisture should have
little problem advecting westward to maybe a Seminole-Odessa-
Fort Stockton-Panther Junction line beneath a decent LLJ. However,
forecast soundings indicate that this moisture surge will be only
a few tens of mb deep, and once some sensible heating occurs in
the morning, the dryline will jump at warp speed east, leaving us
in breezy and dry westerly winds. Consequently, we`ll hold onto
the fire weather watch in toto for now and let the mid shift
decide what advisories/warnings are needed.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from 10 AM MDT Wednesday through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning
     through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe
     Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

44

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752
FXUS64 KMAF 220229 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
929 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2015

.UPDATE...

Please see the forecast update below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

This evening`s RAOB from KMAF showed a cap too stout to break.
While one updraft managed to sustain itself over Mitchell Co.
earlier, the collapse of the PBL should put chances of surface-
based convection to bed. CAMs do suggest a small chance of
SHRA/TSRA affecting the southeastern New Mexican plains tonight,
and we`ve held some low-order PoPs there. Next question involves
the westward translation of the dryline. Moisture should have
little problem advecting westward to maybe a Seminole-Odessa-
Fort Stockton-Panther Junction line beneath a decent LLJ. However,
forecast soundings indicate that this moisture surge will be only
a few tens of mb deep, and once some sensible heating occurs in
the morning, the dryline will jump at warp speed east, leaving us
in breezy and dry westerly winds. Consequently, we`ll hold onto
the fire weather watch in toto for now and let the mid shift
decide what advisories/warnings are needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 59  86  56  84  /  10   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              62  88  58  85  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                52  84  50  83  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  62  91  64  87  /   0  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  89  59  81  /   0   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  76  52  73  /  10   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   51  81  51  82  /  10   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   43  77  48  72  /   0   0   0  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    61  88  57  85  /  10  10   0  10
ODESSA TX                  61  87  57  84  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    58  87  53  86  /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

27/70

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598
FXUS64 KMAF 212319
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
619 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2015


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs
potentially affecting a few terminals early Wednesday morning.
Currently have light and variable winds across most areas this
evening however FST has just increased from the SE the last hour.
LLJ developing overnight will keep winds at FST, MAF and possibly
INK elevated for several hours tonight. Moisture increase from the
SE tonight may result in MVFR/IFR cigs developing at MAF a few
hours after midnight then HOB shortly after. Will include mention
of prevailing IFR at MAF through 14Z and a TEMPO for a short
period of MVFR at HOB. Confidence in low cigs affecting FST and
INK are not high enough attm to include mention. Will continue to
monitor as we head into tonight and make any adjustments when
needed. Otherwise, winds increase from the west mid morning/early
afternoon Wednesday and persist through the afternoon hours at all
terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, there is an upper trough over the Great Lakes region with
another upper low centered over the west coast/southern California.
The CWA is under west to southwest flow aloft with a surface trough
developing across the higher terrain of southeast New Mexico and
West Texas.  This surface trough will allow for temperatures today
to be about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.  Surface winds are
generally out of the southeast allowing for an increase in low-level
moisture.  Omega 500 mb values are expected to increase over across
west and south of the Upper Trans Pecos this afternoon.
Thunderstorms are possible across the area today with models
producing storms along the surface trough out west.  Depending on
how far east the dryline mixes today, storms may develop across the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos where CAPE values
according to the NAM12 approach 1,000 J/Kg.  Lapse rates will be
good this afternoon and evening areawide with some places seeing
values of 8+ degrees Celsius/km.  Zero to 6 km bulk shear values are
expected to be impressive today, so a few severe storms are possible
today.

The dryline is mostly east of the CWA on Wednesday with dry west
downslope winds behind it.  This will allow temperatures to warm up
even more on Wednesday.  The west coast upper trough will move
closer to the region on Thursday and a shortwave will pass over the
area.  The NAM80 is showing increased 500 mb omega values across the
Davis Mountains into the Permian Basin Thursday afternoon.  Storms
will be possible across the Davis Mountains, Lower Trans Pecos, and
the eastern Permian Basin on Thursday although it does not appear
that they will be severe since CAPE will be very low and lapse rates
will struggle to reach 7 degrees Celsius/Km across this area.  On
Friday, the upper trough will pass over the Central Plains with the
base of the trough passing over the CWA.  Strong winds in the jet
associated with the base of the upper trough will mix down to the
surface resulting in gusty west winds across the CWA Friday
afternoon.  Another upper trough will be over the Desert Southwest
on Saturday with southwest flow aloft over the area.  West to
southwest downslope surface winds will continue across the area on
Saturday allowing for temperatures to remain above normal and
keeping conditions dry.  As the upper trough approaches the region
on Sunday, thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern Permian
Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos due to a dryline forming across the
area.

FIRE WEATHER...

Dry and warm conditions today have combined with gusty westerly
winds to create near critical fire weather conditions in the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Winds will subside this evening, but recovery
will be poor to fair in the Guadalupes, the adjacent SE NM Plains
and along the Van Horn/Hwy 54 corridor.  Westerly winds will
increase Wednesday and push the dryline well east.  Critical Fire wx
conditions are still expected in the Guadalupe Mtns, so the Fire
Weather Watch will remain in effect there.  In addition, portions of
the SE NM Plains and Van Horn/Hwy 54 corridor have been added to the
Fire Wx Watch Wednesday as wind speeds could be strong enough there
for critical conditions.

Recovery will be poor to fair Wednesday night from SE NM, southward
across the Upper Trans Pecos, Davis Mtns, Van Horn area, Marfa
Plateau and Presidio Valley.  On Thursday, the Guadalupe Mtns and SE
NM Plains could have near critical to critical fire weather
conditions, but conditions appear too marginal to issue a Fire Wx
Watch at this time.  However, widespread critical fire weather
conditions could occur on Friday as an upper storm system passes by
just north of the region, temperatures rise above normal and
westerly winds rise to 20 to 30 mph sustained.  If trends continue,
a Watch will be issued in the next day or so for Friday.  Dry
conditions will persist through next weekend, with more critical
fire weather possible both Saturday and Sunday.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

27

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659
FXUS64 KMAF 211935
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
232 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, there is an upper trough over the Great Lakes region with
another upper low centered over the west coast/southern California.
The CWA is under west to southwest flow aloft with a surface trough
developing across the higher terrain of southeast New Mexico and
West Texas.  This surface trough will allow for temperatures today
to be about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.  Surface winds are
generally out of the southeast allowing for an increase in low-level
moisture.  Omega 500 mb values are expected to increase over across
west and south of the Upper Trans Pecos this afternoon.
Thunderstorms are possible across the area today with models
producing storms along the surface trough out west.  Depending on
how far east the dryline mixes today, storms may develop across the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos where CAPE values
according to the NAM12 approach 1,000 J/Kg.  Lapse rates will be
good this afternoon and evening areawide with some places seeing
values of 8+ degrees Celsius/km.  Zero to 6 km bulk shear values are
expected to be impressive today, so a few severe storms are possible
today.

The dryline is mostly east of the CWA on Wednesday with dry west
downslope winds behind it.  This will allow temperatures to warm up
even more on Wednesday.  The west coast upper trough will move
closer to the region on Thursday and a shortwave will pass over the
area.  The NAM80 is showing increased 500 mb omega values across the
Davis Mountains into the Permian Basin Thursday afternoon.  Storms
will be possible across the Davis Mountains, Lower Trans Pecos, and
the eastern Permian Basin on Thursday although it does not appear
that they will be severe since CAPE will be very low and lapse rates
will struggle to reach 7 degrees Celsius/Km across this area.  On
Friday, the upper trough will pass over the Central Plains with the
base of the trough passing over the CWA.  Strong winds in the jet
associated with the base of the upper trough will mix down to the
surface resulting in gusty west winds across the CWA Friday
afternoon.  Another upper trough will be over the Desert Southwest
on Saturday with southwest flow aloft over the area.  West to
southwest downslope surface winds will continue across the area on
Saturday allowing for temperatures to remain above normal and
keeping conditions dry.  As the upper trough approaches the region
on Sunday, thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern Permian
Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos due to a dryline forming across the
area.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry and warm conditions today have combined with gusty westerly
winds to create near critical fire weather conditions in the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Winds will subside this evening, but recovery
will be poor to fair in the Guadalupes, the adjacent SE NM Plains
and along the Van Horn/Hwy 54 corridor.  Westerly winds will
increase Wednesday and push the dryline well east.  Critical Fire wx
conditions are still expected in the Guadalupe Mtns, so the Fire
Weather Watch will remain in effect there.  In addition, portions of
the SE NM Plains and Van Horn/Hwy 54 corridor have been added to the
Fire Wx Watch Wednesday as wind speeds could be strong enough there
for critical conditions.

Recovery will be poor to fair Wednesday night from SE NM, southward
across the Upper Trans Pecos, Davis Mtns, Van Horn area, Marfa
Plateau and Presidio Valley.  On Thursday, the Guadalupe Mtns and SE
NM Plains could have near critical to critical fire weather
conditions, but conditions appear too marginal to issue a Fire Wx
Watch at this time.  However, widespread critical fire weather
conditions could occur on Friday as an upper storm system passes by
just north of the region, temperatures rise above normal and
westerly winds rise to 20 to 30 mph sustained.  If trends continue,
a Watch will be issued in the next day or so for Friday.  Dry
conditions will persist through next weekend, with more critical
fire weather possible both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 59  86  56  84  /  10   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              62  88  58  85  /  20  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                52  84  50  83  /  20   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  62  91  64  87  /  20  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  89  59  81  /  10   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  76  52  73  /  10   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   51  81  51  82  /  10   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   43  77  48  72  /  20   0   0  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    61  88  57  85  /  10  10   0  10
ODESSA TX                  61  87  57  84  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    58  87  53  86  /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

67/80

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422
FXUS64 KMAF 211650
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1150 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will persist through tonight at all southeast New
Mexico and west Texas terminals.  Thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon and evening, but probabilities are too low to include
at any given site.  MVFR ceilings may develop late tonight and
spread northwestward into the region.  Since these will not affect
any terminals until 21/09Z or after, will not include any mention
this issuance.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2015/

Not much change to the current forecast. WV imagery shows zonal
flow over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this morning, w/an
upper trough swinging thru the Great Lakes Region, and another off
the coast of SoCal/Baja, south of a ridge extending up into the
PacNW. An incoming trough to the PacNW over the next few days will
push the ridge east and deepen the Baja trough, transitioning
zonal flow aloft to SW over the next 24 hours. Return flow will
keep moisture fairly well into the CWA for most of the day today,
w/a very weak dryline forecast, if at all. Dryline then sharpens
up after 00Z Wednesday, w/models hinting at moisture surging NW,
especially after 06Z. Models are pretty dry over the next 24
hours, but do hint at bringing a few disturbances into the area.
Forecast soundings overnight over the Wrn Low Rolling Plains show
sbcapes well in excess of 2500 J/kg and mid-lvl LR`s of better
than 8C/km. 0-6km bulk shear of 40 kts or better will favor
supercells, but wet-bulb zeroes will be pretty low (< 7 kft AGL)
for large hail. However, moisture will be shallow, and soundings
hint at dry microburst potential. We will continue to emphasize
this threat in the HWO.

Wednesday, flow aloft becomes even more SW as the upper trough makes
landfall, w/temps remaining abv-normal and even increasing a degree
or two.  A developing sfc trough will increase SW-W flow over the
area, keeping the moisture, dryline, and convective threat further
east.  Of course, w/the loss of convective chances, fire wx concerns
will increase in the Guadalupes.  See Fire Wx Discussion below for
details.  Thursday and Friday, the upper trough is forecast to open
and eject into the 4 Corners region and beyond.  Leeside sfc troughing
will result in breezy SW flow areawide, and Wind Advisories may be
warranted.  Chances of convection will increase Thursday/Thursday
night, w/the NAM and GFS bringing a shortwave into the area, before
moisture is shunted east Friday.

Otherwise, temps will remain abv-normal into the extended, under
zonal to SW flow aloft.  Not much in the models warrant a mention of
rain.  W/the latest ECMWF not available, we`ll keep the grids
dry.

FIRE WEATHER...

Several days of fire weather concerns are expected this week as an
active southern stream continues. Dry air will spread east this
afternoon behind a developing dryline, but winds should mostly
remain below 15 mph areawide except for in the Guadalupe Mnts where
wind speeds may reach near 20 mph. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement
is in effect for this afternoon for the Guadalupe Mnts due to the
near critical fire weather conditions. An upper level disturbance
will pass just to our north Wednesday helping to accelerate the
dryline eastward across the region. RH`s will almost certainly reach
critical values over most if not all of the area Wednesday
afternoon. Stronger winds will mix down behind the dryline...however
models differ on how strong. Will keep the Fire Weather Watch for
the Guadalupe Mnts where confidence is highest for Red Flag
conditions to occur. We may see more near critical fire weather
conditions Thursday with strong winds, but slightly higher rh`s. By
Friday, another wave will move out of the SW U.S. with strong winds
and low rh`s spreading across a large part of the region. Widespread
critical fire weather conditions will be possible Friday across all
of W TX and SE NM so stay tuned for updates to the forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

29/44

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274
FXUS64 KMAF 211106
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
606 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will persist. Storms are possible this afternoon,
but will remain too isolated to include in the TAFs for now. Low
clouds will be possible Wednesday morning just beyond this TAF
cycle.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows zonal
flow over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this morning, w/an
upper trough swinging thru the Great Lakes Region, and another off
the coast of SoCal/Baja, south of a ridge extending up into the
PacNW.  An incoming trough to the PacNW over the next few days will
push the ridge east and deepen the Baja trough, transitioning zonal
flow aloft to SW over the next 24 hours.  Return flow will keep
moisture fairly well into the CWA for most of the day today, w/a
very weak dryline forecast, if at all.  Dryline then sharpens up
after 00Z Wednesday, w/models hinting at moisture surging NW,
especially after 06Z.  Models are pretty dry over the next 24 hours,
but do hint at bringing a few disturbances into the area.  Forecast
soundings overnight over the Wrn Low Rolling Plains show sbcapes
well in excess of 2500 J/kg and mid-lvl LR`s of better than 8C/km.
0-6km bulk shear of 40 kts or better will favor supercells, but
wet-bulb zeroes will be pretty low (< 7 kft AGL) for large hail.
However, moisture will be shallow, and soundings hint at dry
microburst potential.  We will continue to emphasize this threat in
the HWO.

Wednesday, flow aloft becomes even more SW as the upper trough makes
landfall, w/temps remaining abv-normal and even increasing a degree
or two.  A developing sfc trough will increase SW-W flow over the
area, keeping the moisture, dryline, and convective threat further
east.  Of course, w/the loss of convective chances, fire wx concerns
will increase in the Guadalupes.  See Fire Wx Discussion below for
details.  Thursday and Friday, the upper trough is forecast to open
and eject into the 4 Corners region and beyond.  Leeside sfc troughing
will result in breezy SW flow areawide, and Wind Advisories may be
warranted.  Chances of convection will increase Thursday/Thursday
night, w/the NAM and GFS bringing a shortwave into the area, before
moisture is shunted east Friday.

Otherwise, temps will remain abv-normal into the extended, under
zonal to SW flow aloft.  Not much in the models warrant a mention of
rain.  W/the latest ECMWF not available, we`ll keep the grids
dry.

FIRE WEATHER...

Several days of fire weather concerns are expected this week as an
active southern stream continues. Dry air will spread east this
afternoon behind a developing dryline, but winds should mostly
remain below 15 mph areawide except for in the Guadalupe Mnts where
wind speeds may reach near 20 mph. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement
is in effect for this afternoon for the Guadalupe Mnts due to the
near critical fire weather conditions. An upper level disturbance
will pass just to our north Wednesday helping to accelerate the
dryline eastward across the region. RH`s will almost certainly reach
critical values over most if not all of the area Wednesday
afternoon. Stronger winds will mix down behind the dryline...however
models differ on how strong. Will keep the Fire Weather Watch for
the Guadalupe Mnts where confidence is highest for Red Flag
conditions to occur. We may see more near critical fire weather
conditions Thursday with strong winds, but slightly higher rh`s. By
Friday, another wave will move out of the SW U.S. with strong winds
and low rh`s spreading across a large part of the region. Widespread
critical fire weather conditions will be possible Friday across all
of W TX and SE NM so stay tuned for updates to the forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

29

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465
FXUS64 KMAF 210925
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
425 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows zonal
flow over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this morning, w/an
upper trough swinging thru the Great Lakes Region, and another off
the coast of SoCal/Baja, south of a ridge extending up into the
PacNW.  An incoming trough to the PacNW over the next few days will
push the ridge east and deepen the Baja trough, transitioning zonal
flow aloft to SW over the next 24 hours.  Return flow will keep
moisture fairly well into the CWA for most of the day today, w/a
very weak dryline forecast, if at all.  Dryline then sharpens up
after 00Z Wednesday, w/models hinting at moisture surging NW,
especially after 06Z.  Models are pretty dry over the next 24 hours,
but do hint at bringing a few disturbances into the area.  Forecast
soundings overnight over the Wrn Low Rolling Plains show sbcapes
well in excess of 2500 J/kg and mid-lvl LR`s of better than 8C/km.
0-6km bulk shear of 40 kts or better will favor supercells, but
wet-bulb zeroes will be pretty low (< 7 kft AGL) for large hail.
However, moisture will be shallow, and soundings hint at dry
microburst potential.  We will continue to emphasize this threat in
the HWO.

Wednesday, flow aloft becomes even more SW as the upper trough makes
landfall, w/temps remaining abv-normal and even increasing a degree
or two.  A developing sfc trough will increase SW-W flow over the
area, keeping the moisture, dryline, and convective threat further
east.  Of course, w/the loss of convective chances, fire wx concerns
will increase in the Guadalupes.  See Fire Wx Discussion below for
details.  Thursday and Friday, the upper trough is forecast to open
and eject into the 4 Corners region and beyond.  Leeside sfc troughing
will result in breezy SW flow areawide, and Wind Advisories may be
warranted.  Chances of convection will increase Thursday/Thursday
night, w/the NAM and GFS bringing a shortwave into the area, before
moisture is shunted east Friday.

Otherwise, temps will remain abv-normal into the extended, under
zonal to SW flow aloft.  Not much in the models warrant a mention of
rain.  W/the latest ECMWF not available, we`ll keep the grids
dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Several days of fire weather concerns are expected this week as an
active southern stream continues. Dry air will spread east this
afternoon behind a developing dryline, but winds should mostly
remain below 15 mph areawide except for in the Guadalupe Mnts where
wind speeds may reach near 20 mph. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement
is in effect for this afternoon for the Guadalupe Mnts due to the
near critical fire weather conditions. An upper level disturbance
will pass just to our north Wednesday helping to accelerate the
dryline eastward across the region. RH`s will almost certainly reach
critical values over most if not all of the area Wednesday
afternoon. Stronger winds will mix down behind the dryline...however
models differ on how strong. Will keep the Fire Weather Watch for
the Guadalupe Mnts where confidence is highest for Red Flag
conditions to occur. We may see more near critical fire weather
conditions Thursday with strong winds, but slightly higher rh`s. By
Friday, another wave will move out of the SW U.S. with strong winds
and low rh`s spreading across a large part of the region. Widespread
critical fire weather conditions will be possible Friday across all
of W TX and SE NM so stay tuned for updates to the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 83  59  85  56  /  20  20  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              84  63  88  59  /  20  20  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                83  54  82  51  /   0  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  80  63  91  66  /  20  10  20   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  57  87  61  /  20  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  52  73  56  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   81  53  81  52  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   79  42  77  45  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  62  87  60  /  20  20  10   0
ODESSA TX                  85  61  85  62  /  20  20  10   0
WINK TX                    86  58  87  56  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

29/44

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253
FXUS64 KMAF 210513
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will continue through the day Tuesday. A few storms
are possible later in the afternoon, but will keep out of TAFs for
now due to the expected isolated nature.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

29

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780
FXUS64 KMAF 202349
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
649 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue with a gusty SE wind dropping off
during the evening.  The wind should become light overnight
picking up out of the S/SW by tomorrow afternoon.  May be some
storms tomorrow across the east but current pops too low to
include in TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Westerly flow aloft prevails over the region today as flat shortwave
ridging precedes a southern stream shortwave trough.  Although high
temperatures this afternoon will be around 5 degrees below normal, a
few thunderstorms could develop over the Davis Mountains under steep
mid level lapse rates.  Do not expect much rainfall with any storms
today, but they could produce gusty winds due to a fairly dry
subcloud layer.  Low level moisture will increase more tonight and
Tuesday on southerly/southeasterly winds with a disparate dryline
forming over the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau.  Models are not
aggressive in developing precipitation, due in part to a cap along
the dryline.  However, surface temperatures will warm above normal
and perhaps serve to break the cap Tuesday afternoon, maybe even
moreso if a subtlety hinted at model shortwave trough impinges upon
the area.  If convective initiation is realized, around 1500 J/Kg
SBcape, mid level lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 C/Km and 0 to 6 Km bulk
shear of 45-55Kt could yield a few severe thunderstorms.

Increasing westerly flow aloft will result in downslope winds at
the surface, and a low level thermal ridge expanding eastward over
the area Wednesday.  Not looking for record high temps, but highs
will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.  It appears any convection to
affect the area will be possible only along the eastern fringe of
the forecast area as the dryline mixes eastward.  Fire weather
concerns will be high, especially in the Guadalupe Mountains where
a Fire Weather Watch is in effect, and perhaps over the SE NM Plains
if surface winds end up strong enough for critical conditions.
Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more details.

A plume of mid/upper level moisture on the equatorward side of an
upper jet will spread over the region Thursday, with elevated
convection possible on the nose of a 70Kt h5 jet.  The dryline
becomes disparate in model output again Thursday afternoon, but not
sure this will be correct due to height/surface pressure falls and
the resulting backing low level winds.  Will expand slight chance
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon to account for this.  Not only will
a low level jet nose into the region Thursday night, sharpen the
dryline and aid in driving it westward, but a Pacific front will
push eastward into the area.  Both of these factors could aid
convective development well into the night, so will keep at least
slight chance of thunderstorms then, especially over the Stockton
Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos.  More severe storms will be
possible.  The ua trough will eject northeastward over the Texas
Panhandle Friday, which should result in windy conditions over much
of the forecast area.  Will keep a dry forecast going through next
weekend, and Monday too, as mainly westerly flow aloft will prevail
over the region.  It appears temperatures will remain above normal
for the duration.

FIRE WEATHER...

Conditions along the Upper Trans Pecos and westward are expected to
remain dry through this week with the exception of an isolated
thunderstorm across the Davis Mountains.  This will result in
further drying of the fuels.  Temperatures are expected to warm up
to above normal beginning on Tuesday.  Fire weather concerns will be
low today with most places experiencing RH values of at least 20
percent except across the far west CWA and wind speeds will be
fairly light.  Dry air will once again come into areas along and
west of the Upper Trans Pecos on Tuesday, with elevated fire
weather conditions in the Guadalupes as winds will be near 20 mph.
This dry air will spread further eastward on Wednesday with single
digit RH values across a good portion of the area and winds will
become elevated out of the west to southwest.  A Fire Weather Watch
is in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains on Wednesday as winds above
20 mph are expected. This watch may need to be extended to include
the Van Horn area and southeast New Mexico as winds across these
areas will be near 20 mph.  Friday appears to have a high potential
for fire weather with winds at or above 20 mph and RH values near 15
percent across a large portion of the area.  Dry air appears to
remain across the area on Saturday but winds are not expected to be
as strong.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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374
FXUS64 KMAF 201927
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
227 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Westerly flow aloft prevails over the region today as flat shortwave
ridging precedes a southern stream shortwave trough.  Although high
temperatures this afternoon will be around 5 degrees below normal, a
few thunderstorms could develop over the Davis Mountains under steep
mid level lapse rates.  Do not expect much rainfall with any storms
today, but they could produce gusty winds due to a fairly dry
subcloud layer.  Low level moisture will increase more tonight and
Tuesday on southerly/southeasterly winds with a disparate dryline
forming over the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau.  Models are not
aggressive in developing precipitation, due in part to a cap along
the dryline.  However, surface temperatures will warm above normal
and perhaps serve to break the cap Tuesday afternoon, maybe even
moreso if a subtlety hinted at model shortwave trough impinges upon
the area.  If convective initiation is realized, around 1500 J/Kg
SBcape, mid level lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 C/Km and 0 to 6 Km bulk
shear of 45-55Kt could yield a few severe thunderstorms.

Increasing westerly flow aloft will result in downslope winds at
the surface, and a low level thermal ridge expanding eastward over
the area Wednesday.  Not looking for record high temps, but highs
will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.  It appears any convection to
affect the area will be possible only along the eastern fringe of
the forecast area as the dryline mixes eastward.  Fire weather
concerns will be high, especially in the Guadalupe Mountains where
a Fire Weather Watch is in effect, and perhaps over the SE NM Plains
if surface winds end up strong enough for critical conditions.
Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more details.

A plume of mid/upper level moisture on the equatorward side of an
upper jet will spread over the region Thursday, with elevated
convection possible on the nose of a 70Kt h5 jet.  The dryline
becomes disparate in model output again Thursday afternoon, but not
sure this will be correct due to height/surface pressure falls and
the resulting backing low level winds.  Will expand slight chance
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon to account for this.  Not only will
a low level jet nose into the region Thursday night, sharpen the
dryline and aid in driving it westward, but a Pacific front will
push eastward into the area.  Both of these factors could aid
convective development well into the night, so will keep at least
slight chance of thunderstorms then, especially over the Stockton
Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos.  More severe storms will be
possible.  The ua trough will eject northeastward over the Texas
Panhandle Friday, which should result in windy conditions over much
of the forecast area.  Will keep a dry forecast going through next
weekend, and Monday too, as mainly westerly flow aloft will prevail
over the region.  It appears temperatures will remain above normal
for the duration.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Conditions along the Upper Trans Pecos and westward are expected to
remain dry through this week with the exception of an isolated
thunderstorm across the Davis Mountains.  This will result in
further drying of the fuels.  Temperatures are expected to warm up
to above normal beginning on Tuesday.  Fire weather concerns will be
low today with most places experiencing RH values of at least 20
percent except across the far west CWA and wind speeds will be
fairly light.  Dry air will once again come into areas along and
west of the Upper Trans Pecos on Tuesday, with elevated fire
weather conditions in the Guadalupes as winds will be near 20 mph.
This dry air will spread further eastward on Wednesday with single
digit RH values across a good portion of the area and winds will
become elevated out of the west to southwest.  A Fire Weather Watch
is in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains on Wednesday as winds above
20 mph are expected. This watch may need to be extended to include
the Van Horn area and southeast New Mexico as winds across these
areas will be near 20 mph.  Friday appears to have a high potential
for fire weather with winds at or above 20 mph and RH values near 15
percent across a large portion of the area.  Dry air appears to
remain across the area on Saturday but winds are not expected to be
as strong.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 52  84  60  85  /   0  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              54  85  63  89  /   0  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                46  85  56  86  /   0   0  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  58  82  65  91  /  10  20  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           54  85  60  88  /  10  20  20   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  78  55  77  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   48  82  52  83  /   0  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   41  79  45  80  /   0  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    53  85  62  88  /   0  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                  54  85  62  87  /   0  20  20  10
WINK TX                    51  88  59  89  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

80/67

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729
FXUS64 KMAF 201734
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1229 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
elevated out of the southeast with occasional gusts this afternoon.
Winds will become more southerly around sunset and will remain
elevated across some areas before weakening just after 06z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
12hr surface pressure falls today of about 10mb will result in
increased s-se winds and maintain coolish 85h temps, 15C east to 19C
w. As such high temps will be about 5-7F below normal. Despite cool
surface temps steep mid level LRs across the Davis Mtns will favor
the formation of isold diurnal tstms. As se-s winds persist into
Tue AM low level mstr will slowly increase underneath steep mid
level LRs. NAM12 still persist in developing isold area of
convection on e slopes of Davis Mtns and drifts e in FST area.
Farther e on Tue PM in area between the surface thermal ridge
across the w-nw PB and the surface mstr axis ABI-JCT will be
favored for tstms. A close inspection of SB CINH in said area does
reveal a weakness. 85h winds suggest dryline will hold across the
ern PB and fcst soundings around SNK show no cap and CAPES of 1500
J/KG, 0-6km shear 40-50kts, so isold severe tstms are possible.
High temps will be back into the normal range Tue. Wly mid level
flow strengthens Wed and dry air will push out farther e, mostly
precluding convective concerns, and keeping temps well above
normal. Mid level flow backs Thur ahead of upper low and a minor
shrtwv trof will eject out across the area. Surface mstr pattern
will be diffuse and high based -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible. Storms
will be possible into Fri AM across the east and Lower Trans
Pecos as 5h speed max comes out across the plains leaving said
area INVOF RRQ of 5h jet. It should be noted that ECMWF is slower
with upper low. During the afternoon both models favor windy/very
windy conditions with 30-40kts 7h winds across W TX plains during
max heating in alignment with sufficiently tight MSLP gradient to
kick winds up, probably easily into advisory level. Models are
hesitant to bring front thru on Sat, which does not make much
sense. According to models Sat/Sun would be warm/dry/breezy.
Front may bi-sect CWFA Monday, but models are disparate.

FIRE WEATHER...
In the wake of Sunday`s cold front, minimum RH values will offer a
bit of reprieve today, climbing to 15 to 30 percent across the area.
However, this reprieve will be short-lived as a significant drying
and warming trend takes over. Dry low and mid level flow through
the first half of the week will exacerbate the drying of fuels
across southeast New Mexico and west Texas, and with a return to
southwest flow aloft by midweek ahead of the next approaching
trough, winds will increase as well as temperatures, with highs
climbing well above normal into the middle to upper 80s, and even
low 90s by midweek. While the warm and dry conditions will be
pronounced on Tuesday, Wednesday currently looks to be of greater
concern for critical fire weather conditions due to a tighter
pressure gradient and thus stronger winds, especially across the
western half of the forecast area. Minimum RH values Wednesday are
progged to drop into the single digits across the southeast New
Mexico Plains and higher terrain to the west, and given sustained
wind speeds up to around 30mph expected through the Guadalupe
Mountains, have gone ahead and issued a preemptive Fire Weather
Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains for Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday evening. Models have yet to reach a consensus regarding
the position of the dryline, progged to return by Wednesday and
Thursday, with the ECMWF still indicating the dryline across the
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, and the GFS pushing the
dryline further east toward central Texas. The position of the
dryline will impact future Fire Weather headlines this week, but
pending either scenario, elevated to critical fire weather
conditions look to be possible from midweek through next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

99

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217
FXUS64 KMAF 201104
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
604 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Light east
winds will increase out of the southeast by mid-morning to around
12-15kt, with breezy conditions expected to persist through Monday
evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
12hr surface pressure falls today of about 10mb will result in
increased s-se winds and maintain coolish 85h temps, 15C east to 19C
w. As such high temps will be about 5-7F below normal. Despite cool
surface temps steep mid level LRs across the Davis Mtns will favor
the formation of isold diurnal tstms. As se-s winds persist into
Tue AM low level mstr will slowly increase underneath steep mid
level LRs. NAM12 still persist in developing isold area of
convection on e slopes of Davis Mtns and drifts e in FST area.
Farther e on Tue PM in area between the surface thermal ridge
across the w-nw PB and the surface mstr axis ABI-JCT will be
favored for tstms. A close inspection of SB CINH in said area does
reveal a weakness. 85h winds suggest dryline will hold across the
ern PB and fcst soundings around SNK show no cap and CAPES of 1500
J/KG, 0-6km shear 40-50kts, so isold severe tstms are possible.
High temps will be back into the normal range Tue. Wly mid level
flow strengthens Wed and dry air will push out farther e, mostly
precluding convective concerns, and keeping temps well above
normal. Mid level flow backs Thur ahead of upper low and a minor
shrtwv trof will eject out across the area. Surface mstr pattern
will be diffuse and high based -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible. Storms
will be possible into Fri AM across the east and Lower Trans
Pecos as 5h speed max comes out across the plains leaving said
area INVOF RRQ of 5h jet. It should be noted that ECMWF is slower
with upper low. During the afternoon both models favor windy/very
windy conditions with 30-40kts 7h winds across W TX plains during
max heating in alignment with sufficiently tight MSLP gradient to
kick winds up, probably easily into advisory level. Models are
hesitant to bring front thru on Sat, which does not make much
sense. According to models Sat/Sun would be warm/dry/breezy.
Front may bi-sect CWFA Monday, but models are disparate.

FIRE WEATHER...
In the wake of Sunday`s cold front, minimum RH values will offer a
bit of reprieve today, climbing to 15 to 30 percent across the area.
However, this reprieve will be short-lived as a significant drying
and warming trend takes over. Dry low and mid level flow through
the first half of the week will exacerbate the drying of fuels
across southeast New Mexico and west Texas, and with a return to
southwest flow aloft by midweek ahead of the next approaching
trough, winds will increase as well as temperatures, with highs
climbing well above normal into the middle to upper 80s, and even
low 90s by midweek. While the warm and dry conditions will be
pronounced on Tuesday, Wednesday currently looks to be of greater
concern for critical fire weather conditions due to a tighter
pressure gradient and thus stronger winds, especially across the
western half of the forecast area. Minimum RH values Wednesday are
progged to drop into the single digits across the southeast New
Mexico Plains and higher terrain to the west, and given sustained
wind speeds up to around 30mph expected through the Guadalupe
Mountains, have gone ahead and issued a preemptive Fire Weather
Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains for Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday evening. Models have yet to reach a consensus regarding
the position of the dryline, progged to return by Wednesday and
Thursday, with the ECMWF still indicating the dryline across the
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, and the GFS pushing the
dryline further east toward central Texas. The position of the
dryline will impact future Fire Weather headlines this week, but
pending either scenario, elevated to critical fire weather
conditions look to be possible from midweek through next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

49/84

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649
FXUS64 KMAF 200909
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
409 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
12hr surface pressure falls today of about 10mb will result in
increased s-se winds and maintain coolish 85h temps, 15C east to 19C
w. As such high temps will be about 5-7F below normal. Despite cool
surface temps steep mid level LRs across the Davis Mtns will favor
the formation of isold diurnal tstms. As se-s winds persist into
Tue AM low level mstr will slowly increase underneath steep mid
level LRs. NAM12 still persist in developing isold area of
convection on e slopes of Davis Mtns and drifts e in FST area.
Farther e on Tue PM in area between the surface thermal ridge
across the w-nw PB and the surface mstr axis ABI-JCT will be
favored for tstms. A close inspection of SB CINH in said area does
reveal a weakness. 85h winds suggest dryline will hold across the
ern PB and fcst soundings around SNK show no cap and CAPES of 1500
J/KG, 0-6km shear 40-50kts, so isold severe tstms are possible.
High temps will be back into the normal range Tue. Wly mid level
flow strengthens Wed and dry air will push out farther e, mostly
precluding convective concerns, and keeping temps well above
normal. Mid level flow backs Thur ahead of upper low and a minor
shrtwv trof will eject out across the area. Surface mstr pattern
will be diffuse and high based -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible. Storms
will be possible into Fri AM across the east and Lower Trans
Pecos as 5h speed max comes out across the plains leaving said
area INVOF RRQ of 5h jet. It should be noted that ECMWF is slower
with upper low. During the afternoon both models favor windy/very
windy conditions with 30-40kts 7h winds across W TX plains during
max heating in alignment with sufficiently tight MSLP gradient to
kick winds up, probably easily into advisory level. Models are
hesitant to bring front thru on Sat, which does not make much
sense. According to models Sat/Sun would be warm/dry/breezy.
Front may bi-sect CWFA Monday, but models are disparate.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
In the wake of Sunday`s cold front, minimum RH values will offer a
bit of reprieve today, climbing to 15 to 30 percent across the area.
However, this reprieve will be short-lived as a significant drying
and warming trend takes over. Dry low and mid level flow through
the first half of the week will exacerbate the drying of fuels
across southeast New Mexico and west Texas, and with a return to
southwest flow aloft by midweek ahead of the next approaching
trough, winds will increase as well as temperatures, with highs
climbing well above normal into the middle to upper 80s, and even
low 90s by midweek. While the warm and dry conditions will be
pronounced on Tuesday, Wednesday currently looks to be of greater
concern for critical fire weather conditions due to a tighter
pressure gradient and thus stronger winds, especially across the
western half of the forecast area. Minimum RH values Wednesday are
progged to drop into the single digits across the southeast New
Mexico Plains and higher terrain to the west, and given sustained
wind speeds up to around 30mph expected through the Guadalupe
Mountains, have gone ahead and issued a preemptive Fire Weather
Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains for Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday evening. Models have yet to reach a consensus regarding
the position of the dryline, progged to return by Wednesday and
Thursday, with the ECMWF still indicating the dryline across the
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, and the GFS pushing the
dryline further east toward central Texas. The position of the
dryline will impact future Fire Weather headlines this week, but
pending either scenario, elevated to critical fire weather
conditions look to be possible from midweek through next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 75  51  85  58  /   0   0  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              75  52  84  62  /   0   0  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                77  45  86  52  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  75  57  85  64  /  10  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           78  53  86  56  /  10  10  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          74  50  79  52  /  10   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   74  46  83  51  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   75  42  80  44  /  10   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  51  87  61  /   0   0  20  20
ODESSA TX                  76  52  86  60  /   0   0  20  20
WINK TX                    78  50  90  56  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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895
FXUS64 KMAF 200522
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Dry, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with
light east winds overnight becoming southeasterly and increasing
to 12-15kt by mid-morning Monday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Northwest flow aloft over the region today will transition to
west/southwest flow through the week as an ua trough over the
central U.S. Plains translates eastward, and a southern stream
shortwave trough approaches from the west.  A cold front will
continue to drop south into the area, with gusty northerly winds
behind it.  The parent surface ridge will settle into central Texas
by Monday morning with seasonably cool temperatures expected.  The
surface ridge will shift eastward Monday with return southeasterly
flow allowing a modicum of low level moisture return.  Will continue
to carry a slight chance of thunderstorms in the Davis Mountains as
temperatures will warm enough over the higher terrain for perhaps a
thunderstorm or two.  It doesn`t appear any convection that forms
will last long into the evening.  Southerly winds Monday night and
Tuesday will result in the formation of a dryline with a slight
chance of convective initiation along it Tuesday afternoon and
evening.  There are some indications a shortwave trough will
traverse the region Tuesday afternoon, although it is subtle in
model output.  Also, there is still some question where the
dryline will set up during the afternoon.  Since temperatures will
warm above normal and there will be plenty of SBcape, at least
1500 J/Kg, steep mid level lapse rates around 8 C/Km and 0 to 6 Km
Bulk Shear of 35-45kt, later shifts will have to monitor for the
possibility of thunderstorms, some of which could be severe.

The dryline will remain over the region Wednesday through Friday,
although by Friday it may be on the eastern fringe of the forecast
area, if not east of the region.  Therefore, will carry a slight
chance of thunderstorms each of these days.  As soon as a better
handle can be gained on the whereabouts of the dryline each of these
afternoons/evenings, later shifts will likely increase PoPs.  Since
we will heat nearly 10 degrees above normal through midweek, and
thermodynamic parameters appear to be favorable, the potential
exists for more severe thunderstorms.  Stay tuned.  Another front
could drop into the region Friday when the above mentioned ua trough
passes. However, not much cooling may occur behind it Friday with
temperatures rebounding above normal pretty quickly Saturday and
Sunday.  But, it does look as though the forecast will be dry next
weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...

Conditions along the Upper Trans Pecos and westward are expected to
remain dry through this week.  This will result in further drying of
the fuels.  Temperatures are expected to warm up to above normal
beginning on Tuesday.  RH values of 15 percent or less are expected
today along the Pecos River and extending south and west of this
area, but wind speeds are not expected to be very strong.
Conditions will improve on Monday behind the cold front with most
places experiencing RH values of at least 20 percent.  Dry air will
once again come into areas along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos
on Tuesday, with critical conditions possible in the Guadalupes.
This dry air will spread eastward as the week continues and winds
will become elevated out of the west to southwest.  Some of the
models are indicating RH values in the single digits across portions
of the area.  These conditions will result in possible fire weather
concerns through the end of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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399
FXUS64 KMAF 192320
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
620 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with gusty north wind dropping off after sunset.
Wind will veer around to the E overnight becoming SE Monday as new
leeside trough develops.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Northwest flow aloft over the region today will transition to
west/southwest flow through the week as an ua trough over the
central U.S. Plains translates eastward, and a southern stream
shortwave trough approaches from the west.  A cold front will
continue to drop south into the area, with gusty northerly winds
behind it.  The parent surface ridge will settle into central Texas
by Monday morning with seasonably cool temperatures expected.  The
surface ridge will shift eastward Monday with return southeasterly
flow allowing a modicum of low level moisture return.  Will continue
to carry a slight chance of thunderstorms in the Davis Mountains as
temperatures will warm enough over the higher terrain for perhaps a
thunderstorm or two.  It doesn`t appear any convection that forms
will last long into the evening.  Southerly winds Monday night and
Tuesday will result in the formation of a dryline with a slight
chance of convective initiation along it Tuesday afternoon and
evening.  There are some indications a shortwave trough will
traverse the region Tuesday afternoon, although it is subtle in
model output.  Also, there is still some question where the
dryline will set up during the afternoon.  Since temperatures will
warm above normal and there will be plenty of SBcape, at least
1500 J/Kg, steep mid level lapse rates around 8 C/Km and 0 to 6 Km
Bulk Shear of 35-45kt, later shifts will have to monitor for the
possibility of thunderstorms, some of which could be severe.

The dryline will remain over the region Wednesday through Friday,
although by Friday it may be on the eastern fringe of the forecast
area, if not east of the region.  Therefore, will carry a slight
chance of thunderstorms each of these days.  As soon as a better
handle can be gained on the whereabouts of the dryline each of these
afternoons/evenings, later shifts will likely increase PoPs.  Since
we will heat nearly 10 degrees above normal through midweek, and
thermodynamic parameters appear to be favorable, the potential
exists for more severe thunderstorms.  Stay tuned.  Another front
could drop into the region Friday when the above mentioned ua trough
passes. However, not much cooling may occur behind it Friday with
temperatures rebounding above normal pretty quickly Saturday and
Sunday.  But, it does look as though the forecast will be dry next
weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...

Conditions along the Upper Trans Pecos and westward are expected to
remain dry through this week.  This will result in further drying of
the fuels.  Temperatures are expected to warm up to above normal
beginning on Tuesday.  RH values of 15 percent or less are expected
today along the Pecos River and extending south and west of this
area, but wind speeds are not expected to be very strong.
Conditions will improve on Monday behind the cold front with most
places experiencing RH values of at least 20 percent.  Dry air will
once again come into areas along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos
on Tuesday, with critical conditions possible in the Guadalupes.
This dry air will spread eastward as the week continues and winds
will become elevated out of the west to southwest.  Some of the
models are indicating RH values in the single digits across portions
of the area.  These conditions will result in possible fire weather
concerns through the end of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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727
FXUS64 KMAF 191918
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
218 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Northwest flow aloft over the region today will transition to
west/southwest flow through the week as an ua trough over the
central U.S. Plains translates eastward, and a southern stream
shortwave trough approaches from the west.  A cold front will
continue to drop south into the area, with gusty northerly winds
behind it.  The parent surface ridge will settle into central Texas
by Monday morning with seasonably cool temperatures expected.  The
surface ridge will shift eastward Monday with return southeasterly
flow allowing a modicum of low level moisture return.  Will continue
to carry a slight chance of thunderstorms in the Davis Mountains as
temperatures will warm enough over the higher terrain for perhaps a
thunderstorm or two.  It doesn`t appear any convection that forms
will last long into the evening.  Southerly winds Monday night and
Tuesday will result in the formation of a dryline with a slight
chance of convective initiation along it Tuesday afternoon and
evening.  There are some indications a shortwave trough will
traverse the region Tuesday afternoon, although it is subtle in
model output.  Also, there is still some question where the
dryline will set up during the afternoon.  Since temperatures will
warm above normal and there will be plenty of SBcape, at least
1500 J/Kg, steep mid level lapse rates around 8 C/Km and 0 to 6 Km
Bulk Shear of 35-45kt, later shifts will have to monitor for the
possibility of thunderstorms, some of which could be severe.

The dryline will remain over the region Wednesday through Friday,
although by Friday it may be on the eastern fringe of the forecast
area, if not east of the region.  Therefore, will carry a slight
chance of thunderstorms each of these days.  As soon as a better
handle can be gained on the whereabouts of the dryline each of these
afternoons/evenings, later shifts will likely increase PoPs.  Since
we will heat nearly 10 degrees above normal through midweek, and
thermodynamic parameters appear to be favorable, the potential
exists for more severe thunderstorms.  Stay tuned.  Another front
could drop into the region Friday when the above mentioned ua trough
passes. However, not much cooling may occur behind it Friday with
temperatures rebounding above normal pretty quickly Saturday and
Sunday.  But, it does look as though the forecast will be dry next
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Conditions along the Upper Trans Pecos and westward are expected to
remain dry through this week.  This will result in further drying of
the fuels.  Temperatures are expected to warm up to above normal
beginning on Tuesday.  RH values of 15 percent or less are expected
today along the Pecos River and extending south and west of this
area, but wind speeds are not expected to be very strong.
Conditions will improve on Monday behind the cold front with most
places experiencing RH values of at least 20 percent.  Dry air will
once again come into areas along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos
on Tuesday, with critical conditions possible in the Guadalupes.
This dry air will spread eastward as the week continues and winds
will become elevated out of the west to southwest.  Some of the
models are indicating RH values in the single digits across portions
of the area.  These conditions will result in possible fire weather
concerns through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 46  75  51  83  /   0   0   0  20
BIG SPRING TX              48  75  54  82  /   0   0   0  20
CARLSBAD NM                46  75  45  84  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  57  77  57  83  /   0  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           50  78  54  87  /   0  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          45  73  50  77  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   42  72  46  80  /  10   0   0  20
MARFA TX                   41  75  40  78  /   0  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    48  75  53  85  /   0   0   0  20
ODESSA TX                  49  76  54  84  /   0   0   0  20
WINK TX                    48  79  52  88  /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/67

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986
FXUS64 KMAF 191651
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1145 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
northerly and elevated with some gusts this afternoon behind the
cold front.  Winds will weaken around sunset and become easterly to
southeasterly overnight before becoming elevated out of the
southeast late Monday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure will slowly fill in across the plains today in
wake of an upper low moving out into the Central Plains.
Appropriately so, it will be about 2-3C cooler at 85h with front
turning winds to the nw-n this PM. Wind should be no more than 15kts
making for a pleasant day. SE winds will increase Mon PM in response
to falling surface pressures to the w and this will preclude any
thoughts of a warming trend, in fact Mon PM will be a few degrees
cooler than Sunday, in part due to increased clouds. The 85h thermal
ridge will amplify Tue and a noticeable warm-up will occur with dry
air pushing e out to the PB underneath flat mid level ridging. A few
storms will be possible near the Davis/Glass Mtns where low level
mstr may hold in long enuf for initiation and also across mostly the
ern PB near the dryline. A dryline will also set up on Wed, but
where? GFS is much farther e and of late GFS has been the
windiest/driest and continues this trend on Wed. CMC is closer to
the GFS and there will downplay on the wrn extent of any PoPs that
blend come up with. Mid level flow backs Thur and a shrtwv trof will
have a chance to move across and slight chance PoPs are warranted.
5h low will pass to the n either Fri AM or PM and has the potential
to result in warm/dry windy conditions. Warm/dry pattern is likely
to persist Sat/Sun, especially if GFS Bogarts its way to the front.

FIRE WEATHER...
With little in the way of precipitation chances heading into next
week, a significant drying trend will begin, particularly along and
south/west of the Pecos River. The beginning of this drying trend
has already been observed in the Guadalupe Mountains, where min RH
values struggled to climb above 10 percent on Saturday.  Dry low and
midlevel flow through the early part of the week will exacerbate the
drying of fuels across the area, and with a return to southwest
flow aloft by midweek ahead of the next approaching trough, winds
will increase as well as temperatures, with highs climbing well
into the 80s by Wednesday due to downsloping winds and deep
mixing. Daytime RH values are concerning by midweek, with models
indicating the potential for percentages in the single digits
across a large portion of the forecast area. The dryline is
expected to reform by Wednesday into Thursday as well, with the
ECMWF indicating the dryline across the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos, and the much more bullish GFS shunting moisture to
the east, with the dryline across central Texas. Pending either
scenario, it looks like an extended warm and dry period is in the
offing, with elevated to critical fire weather concerns certainly
possible from early this week all the way into next weekend. Stay
tuned...

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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