497
FXUS64 KMAF 180859
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
359 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THAT HAS BROUGHT HOT
WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO BE DISPLACED TODAY BY AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ROTATING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY AND PASSING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
MAF HIT A DAILY RECORD HIGH YESTERDAY AT 103 DEGREES WITH A 40
DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIR. AS SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH IS A WARM PATTERN. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO FALL OFF THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE HOT TEMPERATURES
TODAY... MAY TIE A RECORD HIGH AT MAF AGAIN TODAY... BUT SHOULD BE A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT MID 90S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
SOME MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE EASTERN CWA. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
ISOLD POPS IN THE FAR EAST TODAY AS COULD BE A STORM OR TWO DEVELOP
ALONG A DRYLINE. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
BUT MOST STORMS SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE
OF RAIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE REMAINS OF PACIFIC STORM ALVIN MOVE UP ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
QPF DEVELOPS PRECIP OVER SEVERAL DAYS... WILL START WITH INTRODUCING
LOW POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND GO FROM THERE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CWFA...SE
NM...UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND NRN PB. 25KT WINDS AT AROUND 5KFT WILL
COME OUT ACROSS THE DESCRIBED AREA AND WITH THE BETTER MSLP GRADIENT
ACROSS SE NM/NRN PB SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND 20-30 MPH MTNS...MAINLY AFTER 3 PM AND UNTIL AROUND 8
PM...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING. FIRE DANGER WILL BE
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME WHILE FUEL DRYNESS MAPS SUPPORT DRY TO VERY DRY
FUELS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN A DRY/UNSTABLE STATE AS SEEN BY
DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS AND HAINES INDICES OF 5 TO 6. SINGLE DIGIT RH/S
WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. BRIEF RF WX WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MIDLAND/ODESSA AREA
ESPECIALLY IF MSLP GRADIENT IS A LITTLE TIGHTER FARTHER S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 100 62 96 60 / 10 0 0 10
BIG SPRING TX 101 66 97 63 / 10 10 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 98 64 93 61 / 10 0 0 10
DRYDEN TX 99 67 98 66 / 10 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 100 67 97 64 / 0 10 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 89 59 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 98 60 93 58 / 0 0 0 10
MARFA TX 88 48 87 49 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 101 64 96 61 / 10 0 0 10
ODESSA TX 101 64 95 61 / 10 0 0 0
WINK TX 102 62 98 60 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
ANDREWS...BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS
PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
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