Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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252
FXUS64 KMAF 022311
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
511 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below, as is an update
to let the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory expire.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail tonight and Wednesday.  A cold front
will drop south through the region tonight, but aside from
shifting surface winds to the north, little else is expected.

&&

.UPDATE...

Will allow the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory to expire at
03/00Z since winds will begin to decouple and surface speeds
decrease.  There are no other changes to the forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/

Looks like quiet weather can be expected through Friday as a
large upper trough moves across the Plains and into the upper
Mississippi and Ohio Valley states. This trough will push a cold
front south into the forecast area tonight. Behind this front dry
and below normal temperatures are expected through Friday despite
the development of a new surface trough in the northwest to west
flow aloft.

The main feature of interest this forecast continues to be an
upper level storm system that is forecast to track from the Rocky
Mountains into west Texas Friday into Saturday. This mornings
run of the ECMWF model is now more in line with the more
progressive GFS solutions bringing the best chance of precipitation
to the area Friday night, with a quick movement of the system to
the southeast on Saturday. Will continue slight chance to chance
pops Friday night with the potential for light snow across the
southeast New Mexico Plains and the northern Permian Basin with
the approach of the system. Precipitation chances were decreased
to slight chance across mainly west Texas during the day Saturday
due to the more progressive solutions.

Behind this system mainly dry and cool northwesterly flow aloft
regime is forecast to be in place Sunday through next Tuesday.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

A fire danger statement remains in effect the rest of the afternoon
for the Davis Mountains...Marfa Plateau...Big Bend and Lower
Trans Pecos for near critical fire wx conditions.  Rh less than
20 percent possible with 20ft winds of 15 to 20 mph.  Earlier
gusty wind should decrease as it gets closer to evening.  Improved
fire wx conditions expected Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     25  47  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       26  45  20  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         32  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  27  48  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 22  38  25  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          23  43  23  50 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          18  45  14  50 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           24  47  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         25  46  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           27  48  22  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Marfa Plateau-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

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