Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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681
FXUS64 KMAF 010827
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
327 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. HAS SET UP CAMP
AND DOESN`T LOOK TO GO ANYWHERE SOON. WITHOUT ANY DISCERNIBLE
FEATURES, MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED
STORM POSSIBLE IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. WITH OUR REGION ON THE
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE DOOR IS
OPEN FOR MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE SOUTH, AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS SO IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS MAY MOVE
ONCE THEY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST BUT
NEVER REALLY STRENGTHENS. MEANWHILE, A THETA-E AXIS SETS UP ACROSS
NM AND FAR WEST TEXAS AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR OUR AREA ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER HIGH CENTERING ITSELF OVERHEAD LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WILL UNDERCUT TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY FOR AREAS THAT SAW THE
HEAVIEST RAIN YESTERDAY (MAINLY THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN). HIGHS
WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
SLOWLY CLIMB. AS OF RIGHT NOW, YOUR 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY LOOKS GREAT
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90`S AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W TX AND SE NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  93  70  92  73  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    95  68  96  69  /  10  10  10  40
DRYDEN TX                      91  71  91  72  /  10   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               90  69  92  70  /   0   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX              89  68  90  66  /  10  10  10  40
HOBBS NM                       90  67  90  68  /   0  10  10  30
MARFA TX                       88  62  90  63  /  10  10  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        90  69  91  72  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      90  69  90  71  /   0   0  10  20
WINK TX                        95  70  95  70  /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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