Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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551
FXUS64 KMAF 191936
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
236 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Major flooding occurring over southeast New Mexico, and the Upper
Trans Pecos in West Texas today.  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect,
and despite some downtrend in radar activity, the Watch will
continue though tonight.

Moderate rain showers continue to swirl around a Mesoscale
Convective Vortex (MCV) this afternoon, located over the central
Permian Basin.  A few lightning strikes were indicated over the
southern Permian Basin and over the Davis Mountains where some
heating has occurred.  However, hourly rainfall rates were topping
out around 0.25 inches at 19/20Z.  The remnant mid level circulation
of Odile was located over east central New Mexico this afternoon,
and is still discernible in water vapor and visible satellite
imagery.  Heating over the Davis/Glass Mountains will likely aid
scattered thunderstorm development in a moist uncapped environment
through max heating.  Just how much resultant convection will fill
in as it moves east/northeast remains to be seen.  Of more concern
will be whether another MCV develops/spins off, the remnant mid
level circulation form Odile tonight.  Since visible satellite is
indicating another such circulation near Alamogordo this afternoon,
think another round of showers and thunderstorms could develop.
Therefore, will keep likely PoPs going tonight along and north of
Interstate 10, and continue with the Flash Flood Watch until 20/12Z
since flash flood guidance values are very low due to heavy rainfall
over the last 36-48 hours.

The remnants of Odile are progged to move across the Texas Panhandle
tonight and Saturday, but then curl southwestward back over the
region Sunday as the upper ridge to the south resituates to the
west.  Have kept fairly high PoPs going Saturday due to the still
close proximity of this mid level circulation, but also on Sunday
when the circulation may very well be right over the region.  In
addition, a weak cold front will move into the region and provide a
low level focus for shower and thunderstorm development.  Although
we will not extend the Flash Flood Watch at this time, it is very
possible it may be extended Saturday, or reissued on Saturday night
or Sunday.  Temperatures will remain below normal for the next
several days since it will take awhile to evaporate all the moisture
and a low level thermal ridge will remain west of the region under
the westward building ua ridge.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  77  66  77  /  70  70  60  60
BIG SPRING TX              69  81  69  82  /  60  70  60  50
CARLSBAD NM                66  83  67  78  /  60  40  60  60
DRYDEN TX                  74  93  75  91  /  30  30  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  86  67  80  /  60  30  30  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  77  61  76  /  50  20  50  50
HOBBS NM                   64  78  64  78  /  70  50  60  60
MARFA TX                   62  82  61  78  /  30  30  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  80  67  80  /  60  70  60  50
ODESSA TX                  68  80  67  80  /  60  70  60  50
WINK TX                    69  82  68  84  /  60  40  60  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

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