Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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330
FXUS64 KMAF 301830
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
130 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low over OK this morning will move NE with upper ridge
building in from west.  The next upper trough will dive out of
Canada Tuesday and strengthen as it digs across the Central Plains
Wednesday passing to the east Thursday.  High pressure once again
returns behind it.

As sunshine returns to the area with west wind that will come back
around to the south by Tuesday.  Temperatures recovering from recent
strong cold front will climb through Tuesday.  Will see return of
highs in the 90s. Next cold front arrives Wednesday and will
knock highs back into the 70s. Temps warm into the next weekend.

Strong wind on backside of upper low may result in windy conditions
across the western slopes of the higher elevations... will continue
wind advisory this afternoon for Van Horn region... Davis Mtns...
and Marfa Plateau.  GDP may briefly flirt with high wind this
afternoon but should be short lived.

Will have low rain chances Wednesday mainly east with upper trough
and front.  Otherwise forecast dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
It has become breezy across west Texas and southeast New Mexico
early this afternoon. Rh/s were dropping into the teens in the
mountains, Big Bend and the upper Trans Pecos. Expecting these
areas to reach Red Flag Criteria shortly as gusty 20 foot winds
generally increase to 20 mph or greater and rh/s dip to 15 percent
or less for at least a few hours. Elsewhere despite the increasing
winds, rh/s will likely not remain at or below 15 percent for any
extended duration. Conditions will improve by sunset as winds
diminish significantly with loss of diurnal mixing. Rh recovery
tonight is expected to be mainly poor west of the Pecos River
and fair east.

Temperatures will warm to slightly above normal values Monday
with min rh/s dropping to 6 to 15 percent areawide. The mid to
upper level flow is forecast to relax significantly however as
an upper level storm system shifts east of the forecast area,
so critical fire weather is not expected. A Fire danger statement
may be needed in and near the mountains where winds will be more
elevated. Rh recovery Monday night will generally be poor west of
the Pecos River and fair east.

More dry weather with stronger flow could result in near critical to
critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon across the Guadalupe
Mountains and the southeast New Mexico Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     47  84  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       45  86  51  93 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         52  92  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  52  88  60  94 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 50  79  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          42  82  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          35  82  42  87 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           48  86  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         49  85  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           45  88  52  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

12/72
955
FXUS64 KMAF 301712
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1212 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours under mostly clear skies.
Winds will increase out of the west early this afternoon at
generally 20 to 30 mph with some higher gusts. Winds should
decrease to less than 10 mph around sunset and continue overnight.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1041 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Will update the zones to expire the freeze warning for portions
of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. No other changes.

products to be sent shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 555 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail today tonight. Westerly winds will
become gusty this afternoon, but decrease around 01/00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

An intense upper level low continues to churn across the TX
Panhandle this morning. This system has dumped heavy snow over NM
and the TX/OK Panhandles and north winds off the snow have
brought record cold temperatures to our area. Temperatures have
fallen to near freezing across parts of SE NM, the higher terrain
of W TX and even the NW Permian Basin with 30`s and 40`s
elsewhere. Will add Gaines and Culberson County to the Freeze
Warning and continue the rest as is. We have already reached our
record low for the day here at Midland International with a
current temperature of 39 degrees.

The storm system will pull away from the region today and leave
behind some beautiful conditions. We will have to deal with elevated
winds and critical fire weather across the Marfa Plateau and Davis
mountains this afternoon. Have issued a Wind Advisory and Red Flag
Warning for this area. Even though it will still be quite windy,
highs area expected to reach the upper 60`s and low 70`s with full
sunshine this afternoon. Westerly mid level flow develops across the
region Monday and Tuesday which brings back the heat. Expect well
above normal temperatures to return, peaking on Tuesday afternoon.
Luckily it won`t last long as a strong shortwave digs across the
Plains and brings down another strong cold front. This front will
move through the area early Wednesday with much cooler
temperatures behind it. Below normal conditions last through
Thursday before we see a slow warmup by the end of the week. A few
showers or storms are possible along the front Wednesday,
otherwise it will remain dry.

FIRE WEATHER...

Despite a cold airmass over the region this morning and good
recovery, westerly winds will return today and become gusty this
afternoon behind a departing upper level storm system.  West to
northwest mid level winds will aid dry air pushing into the region
on westerly surface winds of 15-25 mph sustained in most places.
Although high temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal in most
locations this afternoon, minimum RHs will drop to 7-15% along and
west of the Pecos River.  Since little precipitation has fallen in
these areas, and fuels are critically dry, think several locations
will have critical fire weather conditions for a few hours.  Will
issue a Red Flag Warning from 30/18Z-01/01Z for locations west of
the Pecos and in west Texas.

Recovery will be poor over much of the forecast area tonight as dry
air remain entrenched.  Temperatures will warm slightly above normal
Monday afternoon under continuing westerly flow aloft.  Although
minimum RHs will drop to 5-15% areawide Monday afternoon, critical
fire weather conditions may be relegated to the Guadalupe Mountains
where wind speeds will be at least 20-25 mph sustained.

A cold front will approach the area Tuesday morning, but recovery
will still be poor over most of the area ahead of it.  High
temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal Tuesday afternoon, and
minimum RHs 5-15% over all except the Lower Trans Pecos.  At least
near critical fire weather conditions are expected, but wind speeds
may not be strong enough for critical.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     48  85  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       45  86  52  91 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         50  89  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  52  88  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 50  79  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          43  81  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          37  83  49  88 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           49  86  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         49  85  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           45  87  53  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

67/29
120
FXUS64 KMAF 301541 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1041 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Will update the zones to expire the freeze warning for portions
of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. No other changes.

products to be sent shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 555 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail today tonight. Westerly winds will
become gusty this afternoon, but decrease around 01/00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

An intense upper level low continues to churn across the TX
Panhandle this morning. This system has dumped heavy snow over NM
and the TX/OK Panhandles and north winds off the snow have
brought record cold temperatures to our area. Temperatures have
fallen to near freezing across parts of SE NM, the higher terrain
of W TX and even the NW Permian Basin with 30`s and 40`s
elsewhere. Will add Gaines and Culberson County to the Freeze
Warning and continue the rest as is. We have already reached our
record low for the day here at Midland International with a
current temperature of 39 degrees.

The storm system will pull away from the region today and leave
behind some beautiful conditions. We will have to deal with elevated
winds and critical fire weather across the Marfa Plateau and Davis
mountains this afternoon. Have issued a Wind Advisory and Red Flag
Warning for this area. Even though it will still be quite windy,
highs area expected to reach the upper 60`s and low 70`s with full
sunshine this afternoon. Westerly mid level flow develops across the
region Monday and Tuesday which brings back the heat. Expect well
above normal temperatures to return, peaking on Tuesday afternoon.
Luckily it won`t last long as a strong shortwave digs across the
Plains and brings down another strong cold front. This front will
move through the area early Wednesday with much cooler
temperatures behind it. Below normal conditions last through
Thursday before we see a slow warmup by the end of the week. A few
showers or storms are possible along the front Wednesday,
otherwise it will remain dry.

FIRE WEATHER...

Despite a cold airmass over the region this morning and good
recovery, westerly winds will return today and become gusty this
afternoon behind a departing upper level storm system.  West to
northwest mid level winds will aid dry air pushing into the region
on westerly surface winds of 15-25 mph sustained in most places.
Although high temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal in most
locations this afternoon, minimum RHs will drop to 7-15% along and
west of the Pecos River.  Since little precipitation has fallen in
these areas, and fuels are critically dry, think several locations
will have critical fire weather conditions for a few hours.  Will
issue a Red Flag Warning from 30/18Z-01/01Z for locations west of
the Pecos and in west Texas.

Recovery will be poor over much of the forecast area tonight as dry
air remain entrenched.  Temperatures will warm slightly above normal
Monday afternoon under continuing westerly flow aloft.  Although
minimum RHs will drop to 5-15% areawide Monday afternoon, critical
fire weather conditions may be relegated to the Guadalupe Mountains
where wind speeds will be at least 20-25 mph sustained.

A cold front will approach the area Tuesday morning, but recovery
will still be poor over most of the area ahead of it.  High
temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal Tuesday afternoon, and
minimum RHs 5-15% over all except the Lower Trans Pecos.  At least
near critical fire weather conditions are expected, but wind speeds
may not be strong enough for critical.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  48  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       72  45  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         80  50  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  75  52  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 64  50  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          67  43  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          70  37  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           70  49  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         70  49  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74  45  87  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99
561
FXUS64 KMAF 301055
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
555 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail today tonight. Westerly winds will
become gusty this afternoon, but decrease around 01/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

An intense upper level low continues to churn across the TX
Panhandle this morning. This system has dumped heavy snow over NM
and the TX/OK Panhandles and north winds off the snow have
brought record cold temperatures to our area. Temperatures have
fallen to near freezing across parts of SE NM, the higher terrain
of W TX and even the NW Permian Basin with 30`s and 40`s
elsewhere. Will add Gaines and Culberson County to the Freeze
Warning and continue the rest as is. We have already reached our
record low for the day here at Midland International with a
current temperature of 39 degrees.

The storm system will pull away from the region today and leave
behind some beautiful conditions. We will have to deal with elevated
winds and critical fire weather across the Marfa Plateau and Davis
mountains this afternoon. Have issued a Wind Advisory and Red Flag
Warning for this area. Even though it will still be quite windy,
highs area expected to reach the upper 60`s and low 70`s with full
sunshine this afternoon. Westerly mid level flow develops across the
region Monday and Tuesday which brings back the heat. Expect well
above normal temperatures to return, peaking on Tuesday afternoon.
Luckily it won`t last long as a strong shortwave digs across the
Plains and brings down another strong cold front. This front will
move through the area early Wednesday with much cooler
temperatures behind it. Below normal conditions last through
Thursday before we see a slow warmup by the end of the week. A few
showers or storms are possible along the front Wednesday,
otherwise it will remain dry.

FIRE WEATHER...

Despite a cold airmass over the region this morning and good
recovery, westerly winds will return today and become gusty this
afternoon behind a departing upper level storm system.  West to
northwest mid level winds will aid dry air pushing into the region
on westerly surface winds of 15-25 mph sustained in most places.
Although high temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal in most
locations this afternoon, minimum RHs will drop to 7-15% along and
west of the Pecos River.  Since little precipitation has fallen in
these areas, and fuels are critically dry, think several locations
will have critical fire weather conditions for a few hours.  Will
issue a Red Flag Warning from 30/18Z-01/01Z for locations west of
the Pecos and in west Texas.

Recovery will be poor over much of the forecast area tonight as dry
air remain entrenched.  Temperatures will warm slightly above normal
Monday afternoon under continuing westerly flow aloft.  Although
minimum RHs will drop to 5-15% areawide Monday afternoon, critical
fire weather conditions may be relegated to the Guadalupe Mountains
where wind speeds will be at least 20-25 mph sustained.

A cold front will approach the area Tuesday morning, but recovery
will still be poor over most of the area ahead of it.  High
temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal Tuesday afternoon, and
minimum RHs 5-15% over all except the Lower Trans Pecos.  At least
near critical fire weather conditions are expected, but wind speeds
may not be strong enough for critical.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  48  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       72  45  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         80  50  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  75  52  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 64  50  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          67  43  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          70  37  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           70  49  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         70  49  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74  45  87  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT this morning for Central Lea
     County-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea
     County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 8 PM
     CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/
117
FXUS64 KMAF 300900
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
400 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...

An intense upper level low continues to churn across the TX
Panhandle this morning. This system has dumped heavy snow over NM
and the TX/OK Panhandles and north winds off the snow have
brought record cold temperatures to our area. Temperatures have
fallen to near freezing across parts of SE NM, the higher terrain
of W TX and even the NW Permian Basin with 30`s and 40`s
elsewhere. Will add Gaines and Culberson County to the Freeze
Warning and continue the rest as is. We have already reached our
record low for the day here at Midland International with a
current temperature of 39 degrees.

The storm system will pull away from the region today and leave
behind some beautiful conditions. We will have to deal with elevated
winds and critical fire weather across the Marfa Plateau and Davis
mountains this afternoon. Have issued a Wind Advisory and Red Flag
Warning for this area. Even though it will still be quite windy,
highs area expected to reach the upper 60`s and low 70`s with full
sunshine this afternoon. Westerly mid level flow develops across the
region Monday and Tuesday which brings back the heat. Expect well
above normal temperatures to return, peaking on Tuesday afternoon.
Luckily it won`t last long as a strong shortwave digs across the
Plains and brings down another strong cold front. This front will
move through the area early Wednesday with much cooler
temperatures behind it. Below normal conditions last through
Thursday before we see a slow warmup by the end of the week. A few
showers or storms are possible along the front Wednesday,
otherwise it will remain dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Despite a cold airmass over the region this morning and good
recovery, westerly winds will return today and become gusty this
afternoon behind a departing upper level storm system.  West to
northwest mid level winds will aid dry air pushing into the region
on westerly surface winds of 15-25 mph sustained in most places.
Although high temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal in most
locations this afternoon, minimum RHs will drop to 7-15% along and
west of the Pecos River.  Since little precipitation has fallen in
these areas, and fuels are critically dry, think several locations
will have critical fire weather conditions for a few hours.  Will
issue a Red Flag Warning from 30/18Z-01/01Z for locations west of
the Pecos and in west Texas.

Recovery will be poor over much of the forecast area tonight as dry
air remain entrenched.  Temperatures will warm slightly above normal
Monday afternoon under continuing westerly flow aloft.  Although
minimum RHs will drop to 5-15% areawide Monday afternoon, critical
fire weather conditions may be relegated to the Guadalupe Mountains
where wind speeds will be at least 20-25 mph sustained.

A cold front will approach the area Tuesday morning, but recovery
will still be poor over most of the area ahead of it.  High
temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal Tuesday afternoon, and
minimum RHs 5-15% over all except the Lower Trans Pecos.  At least
near critical fire weather conditions are expected, but wind speeds
may not be strong enough for critical.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  48  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       72  45  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         80  50  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  75  52  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 64  50  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          67  43  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          70  37  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           70  49  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         70  49  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74  45  87  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT this morning for Central Lea
     County-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea
     County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 8 PM
     CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

67/29
396
FXUS64 KMAF 300447
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1147 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Precipitation and low clouds have moved east of all area
terminals. Gusty northwest winds will settle down to 11kt or less
through 30/08Z at most, if not all, sites.  VFR conditions will
prevail overnight, and through the day as west winds increase to
15-20kt sustained and become gusty by 30/18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  69  48  85 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       35  73  44  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         49  83  54  94 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  38  73  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 33  66  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          34  67  44  83 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          31  69  35  82 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           37  70  49  86 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         37  70  48  86 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           37  74  46  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM MDT Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea County.

TX...Freeze Warning from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/
     Sunday for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Marfa Plateau.

&&

$$
877
FXUS64 KMAF 300300
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1000 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Upon further scrutiny of hi-res models, we`ll cancel the High Wind
Warning early for KGDP.  Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 930 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Latest sfc obs show radar returns are not yielding anything at
the sfc, w/gradually clearing skies on the backside of the upper
trough. Winds continue to subside, and the Wind Advisory has been
allowed to expire as scheduled. Latest model data suggests strong
winds in the Guadalupes over the next few hours are still up in
the air, so we`ll leave the High Wind Warning in place. Regarding
temps, much will depend on how quickly and how much clearing takes
place overnight, but latest models suggest current temps may be a
couple of degrees too low. However, given the freeze warning in
place, we`re reluctant to raise overnight mins. Otherwise, we`ll
do a quick update to remove the Wind Advisory, reduce POPs, and
update other parameters as necessary. Updates out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Rain showers have come to an end at all terminals, though MAF
could see one last shot at some showers within the first couple
hours of the forecast period. Thereafter, dry conditions are
expected, with ceilings improving to VFR areawide this evening and
gradually clearing overnight. Winds will remain out of the west-
northwest through the period, with gusts expected to diminish
overnight tonight for all but MAF/FST where gusts to around
20-25KT will remain possible. Gusts will return to all terminals
by 18Z Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 131 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
upper level trough that has brought a sudden change in the wx
passing over NM today and the Panhandle tonight.  Sunday the low
will move northward across KS as high pressure slowly builds in from
the west as the region remains on the east side of a West Coast
trough.

Strong cold front blew through the area overnight.  Cold air
advection continuing today with unseasonably cold temperatures and a
gusty north wind.  Will continue previous trend of going toward the
colder side or below guidance for lows tonight.  Have inherited a
Freeze Watch for tonight from SE NM down to the Marfa Plateau and
Big Bend.  Based on latest guidance plan on dropping some of the
zones out of the watch since does not look like much of that area
will fall to freezing tonight.  Part of how cold it gets tonight
will depend on if it can get any warmth today.  Will upgrade
Northern Lea... Guadalupe and Davis Mtns... and Marfa Plateau to a
Freeze Warning tonight as expect these locations will reach freezing
and this will be the last freeze of the season.  Temperatures begin
to recover tomorrow afternoon with 80s returning by Monday.  Looking
at another cold front mid week.

As of 18z have a swath of light rain drifting across SE NM and the
Upper Trans Pecos.  Best chance of rain tonight will be NE Permian
Basin.  Could see a few thunderstorms but with the cold air not
expecting many.

Will continue the High Wind Warning for GDP tonight.  Have not seen
higher wind speeds develop yet across the southern counties except
for Terrell but they may kick in later today... will allow the
advisory to run its course.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  69  48  85 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       35  73  44  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         49  83  54  94 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  38  73  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 33  66  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          34  67  44  83 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          31  69  35  82 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           37  70  49  86 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         37  70  48  86 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           37  74  46  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM MDT Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Freeze Warning from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/
     Sunday for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Marfa Plateau.

&&

$$

84/44
839
FXUS64 KMAF 300230
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
930 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Latest sfc obs show radar returns are not yielding anything at
the sfc, w/gradually clearing skies on the backside of the upper
trough. Winds continue to subside, and the Wind Advisory has been
allowed to expire as scheduled. Latest model data suggests strong
winds in the Guadalupes over the next few hours are still up in
the air, so we`ll leave the High Wind Warning in place. Regarding
temps, much will depend on how quickly and how much clearing takes
place overnight, but latest models suggest current temps may be a
couple of degrees too low. However, given the freeze warning in
place, we`re reluctant to raise overnight mins. Otherwise, we`ll
do a quick update to remove the Wind Advisory, reduce POPs, and
update other parameters as necessary. Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Rain showers have come to an end at all terminals, though MAF
could see one last shot at some showers within the first couple
hours of the forecast period. Thereafter, dry conditions are
expected, with ceilings improving to VFR areawide this evening and
gradually clearing overnight. Winds will remain out of the west-
northwest through the period, with gusts expected to diminish
overnight tonight for all but MAF/FST where gusts to around
20-25KT will remain possible. Gusts will return to all terminals
by 18Z Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 131 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
upper level trough that has brought a sudden change in the wx
passing over NM today and the Panhandle tonight.  Sunday the low
will move northward across KS as high pressure slowly builds in from
the west as the region remains on the east side of a West Coast
trough.

Strong cold front blew through the area overnight.  Cold air
advection continuing today with unseasonably cold temperatures and a
gusty north wind.  Will continue previous trend of going toward the
colder side or below guidance for lows tonight.  Have inherited a
Freeze Watch for tonight from SE NM down to the Marfa Plateau and
Big Bend.  Based on latest guidance plan on dropping some of the
zones out of the watch since does not look like much of that area
will fall to freezing tonight.  Part of how cold it gets tonight
will depend on if it can get any warmth today.  Will upgrade
Northern Lea... Guadalupe and Davis Mtns... and Marfa Plateau to a
Freeze Warning tonight as expect these locations will reach freezing
and this will be the last freeze of the season.  Temperatures begin
to recover tomorrow afternoon with 80s returning by Monday.  Looking
at another cold front mid week.

As of 18z have a swath of light rain drifting across SE NM and the
Upper Trans Pecos.  Best chance of rain tonight will be NE Permian
Basin.  Could see a few thunderstorms but with the cold air not
expecting many.

Will continue the High Wind Warning for GDP tonight.  Have not seen
higher wind speeds develop yet across the southern counties except
for Terrell but they may kick in later today... will allow the
advisory to run its course.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  69  48  85 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       35  73  44  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         49  83  54  94 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  38  73  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 33  66  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          34  67  44  83 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          31  69  35  82 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           37  70  49  86 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         37  70  48  86 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           37  74  46  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM MDT Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Freeze Warning from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/
     Sunday for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Marfa Plateau.

&&

$$

84/44
606
FXUS64 KMAF 300000
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
700 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Rain showers have come to an end at all terminals, though MAF
could see one last shot at some showers within the first couple
hours of the forecast period. Thereafter, dry conditions are
expected, with ceilings improving to VFR areawide this evening and
gradually clearing overnight. Winds will remain out of the west-
northwest through the period, with gusts expected to diminish
overnight tonight for all but MAF/FST where gusts to around
20-25KT will remain possible. Gusts will return to all terminals
by 18Z Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 131 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
upper level trough that has brought a sudden change in the wx
passing over NM today and the Panhandle tonight.  Sunday the low
will move northward across KS as high pressure slowly builds in from
the west as the region remains on the east side of a West Coast
trough.

Strong cold front blew through the area overnight.  Cold air
advection continuing today with unseasonably cold temperatures and a
gusty north wind.  Will continue previous trend of going toward the
colder side or below guidance for lows tonight.  Have inherited a
Freeze Watch for tonight from SE NM down to the Marfa Plateau and
Big Bend.  Based on latest guidance plan on dropping some of the
zones out of the watch since does not look like much of that area
will fall to freezing tonight.  Part of how cold it gets tonight
will depend on if it can get any warmth today.  Will upgrade
Northern Lea... Guadalupe and Davis Mtns... and Marfa Plateau to a
Freeze Warning tonight as expect these locations will reach freezing
and this will be the last freeze of the season.  Temperatures begin
to recover tomorrow afternoon with 80s returning by Monday.  Looking
at another cold front mid week.

As of 18z have a swath of light rain drifting across SE NM and the
Upper Trans Pecos.  Best chance of rain tonight will be NE Permian
Basin.  Could see a few thunderstorms but with the cold air not
expecting many.

Will continue the High Wind Warning for GDP tonight.  Have not seen
higher wind speeds develop yet across the southern counties except
for Terrell but they may kick in later today... will allow the
advisory to run its course.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  69  48  85 /  30  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       35  73  44  87 /  20   0   0   0
Dryden                         49  83  54  94 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  38  73  53  90 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 33  66  51  80 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          34  67  44  83 /  20  10   0   0
Marfa                          31  69  35  82 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           37  70  49  86 /  20  10   0   0
Odessa                         37  70  48  86 /  20  10   0   0
Wink                           37  74  46  89 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM MDT Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Freeze Warning from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/
     Sunday for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Marfa Plateau.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley.

&&

$$
657
FXUS64 KMAF 291831
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
131 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
upper level trough that has brought a sudden change in the wx
passing over NM today and the Panhandle tonight.  Sunday the low
will move northward across KS as high pressure slowly builds in from
the west as the region remains on the east side of a West Coast
trough.

Strong cold front blew through the area overnight.  Cold air
advection continuing today with unseasonably cold temperatures and a
gusty north wind.  Will continue previous trend of going toward the
colder side or below guidance for lows tonight.  Have inherited a
Freeze Watch for tonight from SE NM down to the Marfa Plateau and
Big Bend.  Based on latest guidance plan on dropping some of the
zones out of the watch since does not look like much of that area
will fall to freezing tonight.  Part of how cold it gets tonight
will depend on if it can get any warmth today.  Will upgrade
Northern Lea... Guadalupe and Davis Mtns... and Marfa Plateau to a
Freeze Warning tonight as expect these locations will reach freezing
and this will be the last freeze of the season.  Temperatures begin
to recover tomorrow afternoon with 80s returning by Monday.  Looking
at another cold front mid week.

As of 18z have a swath of light rain drifting across SE NM and the
Upper Trans Pecos.  Best chance of rain tonight will be NE Permian
Basin.  Could see a few thunderstorms but with the cold air not
expecting many.

Will continue the High Wind Warning for GDP tonight.  Have not seen
higher wind speeds develop yet across the southern counties except
for Terrell but they may kick in later today... will allow the
advisory to run its course.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  69  48  85 /  30  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       35  73  44  87 /  20   0   0   0
Dryden                         49  83  54  94 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  38  73  53  90 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 33  66  51  80 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          34  67  44  83 /  20  10   0   0
Marfa                          31  69  35  82 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           37  70  49  86 /  20  10   0   0
Odessa                         37  70  48  86 /  20  10   0   0
Wink                           37  74  46  89 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM MDT Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Freeze Warning from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/
     Sunday for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Marfa Plateau.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley.

&&

$$

12/72
637
FXUS64 KMAF 291705
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1205 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See public discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A strong upper level storm system will move across the region this
afternoon and early this evening bringing with it tempo MVFR ceilings
with rain showers through 00z. VFR conditions with decreasing
clouds are expected overnight. Winds will generally be northwesterly
at 15 to 25 mph and gusty through this evening with diminishing
winds after midnight.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1048 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Will update the zones to lower high temperatures this afternoon
based on latest trends. Will issue a wind advisory for this
afternoon for the Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and Presidio
Valley based on incoming data. Tweaked winds.

updated products to be sent shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 603 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings will affect KCNM and KHOB, but it does not appear
the other terminals will be affected by these lower ceilings.
Gusty northwest to west winds will affect all area terminals
today.  There may be a relative lull in winds later this morning
and even during during the afternoon.  However, strong, gusty
northwest winds will likely affect all sites by this evening as
colder air pushes south over the region.  VFR conditions will
prevail for most of this time, if not all.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

Big changes are on the way after a couple of very warm days. An
intense upper trough is gathering strength to our west while a
strong cold front pushes south across SE NM and the Permian
Basin. Temperatures have fallen quickly into the 40`s and 50`s
behind the front with 70`s still ahead of the boundary. Rich low
level moisture is also pooling ahead of the front as well with
dewpoints in the 60`s. A few showers and storms have developed
this morning, mostly along and behind the cold front. We haven`t
seen much out of this with only a few hundredths of an inch so
far. Models have struggled with the cold front and precipitation
this morning, but the higher resolution models are doing a bit
better. The front will likely slow down later this morning as
pressures fall ahead of the upper system. The front will have a
major effect on our forecast high temperatures today. Have lowered
temperatures over the northern half of the area, but there is a
large bust potential depending on how far the front travels. More
showers and storms are possible this afternoon as a disturbance
rounds the base of the upper trough and crosses our area.

Another complication today is the high wind threat across the
Guadalupe Mountains. The front being in the general area may lead to
periodic wind direction changes here. 700 mb winds over the
mountains will veer from the west to the northwest this afternoon
which will temper the threat of high winds in NM. The window of
strongest westerly winds look to be only a couple of hours before
veering so will remove the NM zones from the watch and upgrade to a
warning over the TX zones. Once the front moves through, strong gap
winds are expected to commence through Guadalupe Pass.

Much colder air will spill south behind the front tonight with
lows reaching freezing across parts of the region by Sunday
morning. Heavy snow is falling across E NM and more is expected
today across the TX Panhandle. CAA off the snow will allow
temperatures to reach freezing over a larger area than earlier
expected. The coldest temperatures will be over SE NM and the
higher terrain of W TX where lows will fall into the upper 20`s
and low 30`s. Some of these locations have started to green-up so
will opt to issue a Freeze Watch. Elsewhere, temperatures will
fall into the 30`s and 40`s which will near record lows. The
record April 30th for Midland International is 41 degrees set in
1960.

Cooler temperatures will stick around Sunday before westerly mid
level flow brings hot conditions back to the area Monday and
Tuesday. Another strong cold front will head our way mid week
dropping temperatures below normal once again. Unfortunately,
very little in the way of precipitation is expected with this
system.

FIRE WEATHER...

A very complicated forecast is ongoing with a cold front moving
south through the area this morning.  However, westerly winds will
make a comeback later this morning and afternoon, and push dry air
over southwest Texas.  Think there could be critical fire weather
conditions for 1-3 hours along and west of a Kermit to Big bend line
between 29/18Z and 30/02Z.  However, scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms could develop over southwest Texas as an upper level
storm system approaches the region.  This could raise RHs, but also
result in isolated dry lightning strikes, especially in the Davis
Mountains this afternoon.  Since it is uncertain how long the
duration of any critical fire weather conditions will be, will issue
a Fire Danger statement for these areas.  There will be an abrupt
wind shift over these areas tonight as the cold front pushes
aggressively south, but with much cooler temperatures and higher RH.
Recovery will be good areawide Sunday morning.  Fire weather
concerns could return by Sunday afternoon though as westerly flow
aloft may allow for a rapid warmup, and push dry air back over most
of the forecast area.  In addition, temperatures will soar well
above normal Monday.  The only thing that will prevent critical
conditions on Monday and Tuesday will be 20 foot winds.  It appears
most locations may stay below 20 mph sustained both days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     40  69  47  84 /  40  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       36  72  44  85 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         46  79  51  89 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  40  74  52  88 /  20   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 33  66  50  77 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          33  67  43  81 /  20  10   0   0
Marfa                          32  70  36  81 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           40  71  48  85 /  30  10   0   0
Odessa                         39  70  48  85 /  20  10   0   0
Wink                           37  73  45  86 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa
     Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley.

&&

$$

99/99/
108
FXUS64 KMAF 291548 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1048 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Will update the zones to lower high temperatures this afternoon
based on latest trends. Will issue a wind advisory for this
afternoon for the Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and Presidio
Valley based on incoming data. Tweaked winds.

updated products to be sent shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 603 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings will affect KCNM and KHOB, but it does not appear
the other terminals will be affected by these lower ceilings.
Gusty northwest to west winds will affect all area terminals
today.  There may be a relative lull in winds later this morning
and even during during the afternoon.  However, strong, gusty
northwest winds will likely affect all sites by this evening as
colder air pushes south over the region.  VFR conditions will
prevail for most of this time, if not all.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

Big changes are on the way after a couple of very warm days. An
intense upper trough is gathering strength to our west while a
strong cold front pushes south across SE NM and the Permian
Basin. Temperatures have fallen quickly into the 40`s and 50`s
behind the front with 70`s still ahead of the boundary. Rich low
level moisture is also pooling ahead of the front as well with
dewpoints in the 60`s. A few showers and storms have developed
this morning, mostly along and behind the cold front. We haven`t
seen much out of this with only a few hundredths of an inch so
far. Models have struggled with the cold front and precipitation
this morning, but the higher resolution models are doing a bit
better. The front will likely slow down later this morning as
pressures fall ahead of the upper system. The front will have a
major effect on our forecast high temperatures today. Have lowered
temperatures over the northern half of the area, but there is a
large bust potential depending on how far the front travels. More
showers and storms are possible this afternoon as a disturbance
rounds the base of the upper trough and crosses our area.

Another complication today is the high wind threat across the
Guadalupe Mountains. The front being in the general area may lead to
periodic wind direction changes here. 700 mb winds over the
mountains will veer from the west to the northwest this afternoon
which will temper the threat of high winds in NM. The window of
strongest westerly winds look to be only a couple of hours before
veering so will remove the NM zones from the watch and upgrade to a
warning over the TX zones. Once the front moves through, strong gap
winds are expected to commence through Guadalupe Pass.

Much colder air will spill south behind the front tonight with
lows reaching freezing across parts of the region by Sunday
morning. Heavy snow is falling across E NM and more is expected
today across the TX Panhandle. CAA off the snow will allow
temperatures to reach freezing over a larger area than earlier
expected. The coldest temperatures will be over SE NM and the
higher terrain of W TX where lows will fall into the upper 20`s
and low 30`s. Some of these locations have started to green-up so
will opt to issue a Freeze Watch. Elsewhere, temperatures will
fall into the 30`s and 40`s which will near record lows. The
record April 30th for Midland International is 41 degrees set in
1960.

Cooler temperatures will stick around Sunday before westerly mid
level flow brings hot conditions back to the area Monday and
Tuesday. Another strong cold front will head our way mid week
dropping temperatures below normal once again. Unfortunately,
very little in the way of precipitation is expected with this
system.

FIRE WEATHER...

A very complicated forecast is ongoing with a cold front moving
south through the area this morning.  However, westerly winds will
make a comeback later this morning and afternoon, and push dry air
over southwest Texas.  Think there could be critical fire weather
conditions for 1-3 hours along and west of a Kermit to Big bend line
between 29/18Z and 30/02Z.  However, scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms could develop over southwest Texas as an upper level
storm system approaches the region.  This could raise RHs, but also
result in isolated dry lightning strikes, especially in the Davis
Mountains this afternoon.  Since it is uncertain how long the
duration of any critical fire weather conditions will be, will issue
a Fire Danger statement for these areas.  There will be an abrupt
wind shift over these areas tonight as the cold front pushes
aggressively south, but with much cooler temperatures and higher RH.
Recovery will be good areawide Sunday morning.  Fire weather
concerns could return by Sunday afternoon though as westerly flow
aloft may allow for a rapid warmup, and push dry air back over most
of the forecast area.  In addition, temperatures will soar well
above normal Monday.  The only thing that will prevent critical
conditions on Monday and Tuesday will be 20 foot winds.  It appears
most locations may stay below 20 mph sustained both days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     61  40  69  47 /  30  40  10   0
Carlsbad                       59  36  72  44 /  30  10   0   0
Dryden                         80  46  79  51 /  10  20  10   0
Fort Stockton                  63  40  74  52 /  30  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 58  33  66  50 /  30  10   0   0
Hobbs                          52  33  67  43 /  40  20  10   0
Marfa                          61  32  70  36 /  30  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           63  40  71  48 /  30  30  10   0
Odessa                         61  39  70  48 /  30  20  10   0
Wink                           61  37  73  45 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa
     Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley.

&&

$$

99/99
651
FXUS64 KMAF 291103
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
603 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings will affect KCNM and KHOB, but it does not appear
the other terminals will be affected by these lower ceilings.
Gusty northwest to west winds will affect all area terminals
today.  There may be a relative lull in winds later this morning
and even during during the afternoon.  However, strong, gusty
northwest winds will likely affect all sites by this evening as
colder air pushes south over the region.  VFR conditions will
prevail for most of this time, if not all.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

Big changes are on the way after a couple of very warm days. An
intense upper trough is gathering strength to our west while a
strong cold front pushes south across SE NM and the Permian
Basin. Temperatures have fallen quickly into the 40`s and 50`s
behind the front with 70`s still ahead of the boundary. Rich low
level moisture is also pooling ahead of the front as well with
dewpoints in the 60`s. A few showers and storms have developed
this morning, mostly along and behind the cold front. We haven`t
seen much out of this with only a few hundredths of an inch so
far. Models have struggled with the cold front and precipitation
this morning, but the higher resolution models are doing a bit
better. The front will likely slow down later this morning as
pressures fall ahead of the upper system. The front will have a
major effect on our forecast high temperatures today. Have lowered
temperatures over the northern half of the area, but there is a
large bust potential depending on how far the front travels. More
showers and storms are possible this afternoon as a disturbance
rounds the base of the upper trough and crosses our area.

Another complication today is the high wind threat across the
Guadalupe Mountains. The front being in the general area may lead to
periodic wind direction changes here. 700 mb winds over the
mountains will veer from the west to the northwest this afternoon
which will temper the threat of high winds in NM. The window of
strongest westerly winds look to be only a couple of hours before
veering so will remove the NM zones from the watch and upgrade to a
warning over the TX zones. Once the front moves through, strong gap
winds are expected to commence through Guadalupe Pass.

Much colder air will spill south behind the front tonight with
lows reaching freezing across parts of the region by Sunday
morning. Heavy snow is falling across E NM and more is expected
today across the TX Panhandle. CAA off the snow will allow
temperatures to reach freezing over a larger area than earlier
expected. The coldest temperatures will be over SE NM and the
higher terrain of W TX where lows will fall into the upper 20`s
and low 30`s. Some of these locations have started to green-up so
will opt to issue a Freeze Watch. Elsewhere, temperatures will
fall into the 30`s and 40`s which will near record lows. The
record April 30th for Midland International is 41 degrees set in
1960.

Cooler temperatures will stick around Sunday before westerly mid
level flow brings hot conditions back to the area Monday and
Tuesday. Another strong cold front will head our way mid week
dropping temperatures below normal once again. Unfortunately,
very little in the way of precipitation is expected with this
system.

FIRE WEATHER...

A very complicated forecast is ongoing with a cold front moving
south through the area this morning.  However, westerly winds will
make a comeback later this morning and afternoon, and push dry air
over southwest Texas.  Think there could be critical fire weather
conditions for 1-3 hours along and west of a Kermit to Big bend line
between 29/18Z and 30/02Z.  However, scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms could develop over southwest Texas as an upper level
storm system approaches the region.  This could raise RHs, but also
result in isolated dry lightning strikes, especially in the Davis
Mountains this afternoon.  Since it is uncertain how long the
duration of any critical fire weather conditions will be, will issue
a Fire Danger statement for these areas.  There will be an abrupt
wind shift over these areas tonight as the cold front pushes
aggressively south, but with much cooler temperatures and higher RH.
Recovery will be good areawide Sunday morning.  Fire weather
concerns could return by Sunday afternoon though as westerly flow
aloft may allow for a rapid warmup, and push dry air back over most
of the forecast area.  In addition, temperatures will soar well
above normal Monday.  The only thing that will prevent critical
conditions on Monday and Tuesday will be 20 foot winds.  It appears
most locations may stay below 20 mph sustained both days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  40  69  47 /  30  40  10   0
Carlsbad                       62  36  72  44 /  30  10   0   0
Dryden                         86  46  79  51 /  10  20  10   0
Fort Stockton                  72  40  74  52 /  30  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 59  33  66  50 /  30  10   0   0
Hobbs                          61  33  67  43 /  40  20  10   0
Marfa                          67  32  70  36 /  30  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           70  40  71  48 /  30  30  10   0
Odessa                         68  39  70  48 /  30  20  10   0
Wink                           69  37  73  45 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...High Wind Warning from noon today to 3 AM MDT Sunday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa
     Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/
694
FXUS64 KMAF 290928
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
428 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Big changes are on the way after a couple of very warm days. An
intense upper trough is gathering strength to our west while a
strong cold front pushes south across SE NM and the Permian
Basin. Temperatures have fallen quickly into the 40`s and 50`s
behind the front with 70`s still ahead of the boundary. Rich low
level moisture is also pooling ahead of the front as well with
dewpoints in the 60`s. A few showers and storms have developed
this morning, mostly along and behind the cold front. We haven`t
seen much out of this with only a few hundredths of an inch so
far. Models have struggled with the cold front and precipitation
this morning, but the higher resolution models are doing a bit
better. The front will likely slow down later this morning as
pressures fall ahead of the upper system. The front will have a
major effect on our forecast high temperatures today. Have lowered
temperatures over the northern half of the area, but there is a
large bust potential depending on how far the front travels. More
showers and storms are possible this afternoon as a disturbance
rounds the base of the upper trough and crosses our area.

Another complication today is the high wind threat across the
Guadalupe Mountains. The front being in the general area may lead to
periodic wind direction changes here. 700 mb winds over the
mountains will veer from the west to the northwest this afternoon
which will temper the threat of high winds in NM. The window of
strongest westerly winds look to be only a couple of hours before
veering so will remove the NM zones from the watch and upgrade to a
warning over the TX zones. Once the front moves through, strong gap
winds are expected to commence through Guadalupe Pass.

Much colder air will spill south behind the front tonight with
lows reaching freezing across parts of the region by Sunday
morning. Heavy snow is falling across E NM and more is expected
today across the TX Panhandle. CAA off the snow will allow
temperatures to reach freezing over a larger area than earlier
expected. The coldest temperatures will be over SE NM and the
higher terrain of W TX where lows will fall into the upper 20`s
and low 30`s. Some of these locations have started to green-up so
will opt to issue a Freeze Watch. Elsewhere, temperatures will
fall into the 30`s and 40`s which will near record lows. The
record April 30th for Midland International is 41 degrees set in
1960.

Cooler temperatures will stick around Sunday before westerly mid
level flow brings hot conditions back to the area Monday and
Tuesday. Another strong cold front will head our way mid week
dropping temperatures below normal once again. Unfortunately,
very little in the way of precipitation is expected with this
system.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A very complicated forecast is ongoing with a cold front moving
south through the area this morning.  However, westerly winds will
make a comeback later this morning and afternoon, and push dry air
over southwest Texas.  Think there could be critical fire weather
conditions for 1-3 hours along and west of a Kermit to Big bend line
between 29/18Z and 30/02Z.  However, scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms could develop over southwest Texas as an upper level
storm system approaches the region.  This could raise RHs, but also
result in isolated dry lightning strikes, especially in the Davis
Mountains this afternoon.  Since it is uncertain how long the
duration of any critical fire weather conditions will be, will issue
a Fire Danger statement for these areas.  There will be an abrupt
wind shift over these areas tonight as the cold front pushes
aggressively south, but with much cooler temperatures and higher RH.
Recovery will be good areawide Sunday morning.  Fire weather
concerns could return by Sunday afternoon though as westerly flow
aloft may allow for a rapid warmup, and push dry air back over most
of the forecast area.  In addition, temperatures will soar well
above normal Monday.  The only thing that will prevent critical
conditions on Monday and Tuesday will be 20 foot winds.  It appears
most locations may stay below 20 mph sustained both days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  40  69  47 /  30  40  10   0
Carlsbad                       62  36  72  44 /  30  10   0   0
Dryden                         86  46  79  51 /  10  20  10   0
Fort Stockton                  72  40  74  52 /  30  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 59  33  66  50 /  30  10   0   0
Hobbs                          61  33  67  43 /  40  20  10   0
Marfa                          67  32  70  36 /  30  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           70  40  71  48 /  30  30  10   0
Odessa                         68  39  70  48 /  30  20  10   0
Wink                           69  37  73  45 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...High Wind Warning from noon today to 3 AM MDT Sunday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa
     Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

67/29
695
FXUS64 KMAF 290512
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1212 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A cold front is moving through southeastern New Mexico early this
morning, well ahead of any model offerings prior. Gusty north
winds will affect KCNM and KHOB, with north to northwest winds
doing the same at the rest of area terminals through 29/10Z. An
isolated thunderstorm may affect KHOB or KMAF through 29/08Z, in
addition to MVFR ceilings possibly filling in south over KHOB.
Will have to monitor on whether to add the lower ceilings to other
terminals later tonight. Expect gusty winds will settle down late
this morning, but a secondary push behind the cold front may occur
this afternoon/evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     40  71  46  84 /  40  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       38  74  46  85 /  20  10   0   0
Dryden                         49  82  53  90 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  40  73  50  88 /  20  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 34  66  50  77 /  20  10   0   0
Hobbs                          33  67  43  81 /  30  10   0   0
Marfa                          33  70  36  81 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           39  71  47  85 /  40  10   0   0
Odessa                         38  70  47  85 /  30  10   0   0
Wink                           40  74  44  87 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
318
FXUS64 KMAF 290222
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
922 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Latest observations show winds continue subsiding in the
Guadalupes, and the High Wind Warning has been allowed to expire.
Meanwhile, sfc analysis shows the cold front already into Lea
County, but not generating much in the way of convection, and hi-
res models are too quick to develop it. We`ll do a quick update
to pare back POPs a bit, remove the High Wind Warning, and adjust
other parameters as necessary.  Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 659 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail the next 24 hours. Gusty
southwest winds this evening will diminish after sunset for most
terminals, though CNM/HOB could see gusty winds continue through
tonight. A cold front will begin to move into the area late this
evening, resulting in a NW wind shift at CNM/HOB. There remains
uncertainty with the front`s progression, with other terminals
looking to potentially maintain a SW/W wind into Saturday morning
before the front pushes further through the region, veering winds
to the NW. Gusts to around 20-30kt are expected to return to all
terminals Saturday morning. There is also potential for
showers/thunderstorms tonight into Saturday, though low
probability precludes mention at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 144 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Closed upper low will move down across the 4 Corners region
later today and swing across NM Saturday.  This low will cross the
Panhandle then swing over OK Sunday.  As the low moves east weak
ridging will build in from the west with high pressure over the area
into the early next week.  By Tuesday an upper trough will dive out
of Canada... move across the Southern Rockies Wednesday... and pass
over the area Thursday.

The main feature of interest is a strong cold front that will move
into the area late tonight.  The front looks to push into the NW
part of the region before sunrise so would affect morning lows there
before hanging up during the day.  Some disagreement with models
handling the front but it appears the front wont move through the
region till Saturday night.  Expect much colder temperatures Sunday
morning with Northern Lea Co possibly seeing freezing temps.  Have
considered a freeze warning for that location as could be the last
freeze of the season but for now will just continue with the SPS
highlighting the change.

Not very excite about thunderstorm chances but there will be some
low chances as early as tonight and increasing Saturday along and
behind the front.  Eta keeps most of the rain north of the area
until Saturday afternoon with some during the evening for the east.
Gfs develops more over the region Saturday with Ecm the wettest with
rain Saturday night over the Permian Basin.  Overall not expecting
much rainfall but someone right under a storm could get a good rain.
Will have another chance of rain next week with the upper trough.

The Guadalupe Mtns have already been at high wind today and there is
a High Wind Warning in effect so will let that ride.  There is also
a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mtns Saturday/Saturday night as
700mb winds in the vicinity stay over 40kts much of the night and
the front squeezes through the Pass.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     61  71  40  71 /  10  30  40  10
Carlsbad                       54  66  38  74 /  10  20  20  10
Dryden                         67  84  49  82 /   0  10  20  10
Fort Stockton                  63  74  40  73 /   0  20  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 49  59  34  66 /   0  20  20  10
Hobbs                          52  61  33  67 /  30  30  30  10
Marfa                          57  64  33  70 /   0  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           61  72  39  71 /   0  30  40  10
Odessa                         61  71  38  70 /   0  30  30  10
Wink                           59  70  40  74 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

84/44
242
FXUS64 KMAF 282359
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
659 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail the next 24 hours. Gusty
southwest winds this evening will diminish after sunset for most
terminals, though CNM/HOB could see gusty winds continue through
tonight. A cold front will begin to move into the area late this
evening, resulting in a NW wind shift at CNM/HOB. There remains
uncertainty with the front`s progression, with other terminals
looking to potentially maintain a SW/W wind into Saturday morning
before the front pushes further through the region, veering winds
to the NW. Gusts to around 20-30kt are expected to return to all
terminals Saturday morning. There is also potential for
showers/thunderstorms tonight into Saturday, though low
probability precludes mention at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 144 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Closed upper low will move down across the 4 Corners region
later today and swing across NM Saturday.  This low will cross the
Panhandle then swing over OK Sunday.  As the low moves east weak
ridging will build in from the west with high pressure over the area
into the early next week.  By Tuesday an upper trough will dive out
of Canada... move across the Southern Rockies Wednesday... and pass
over the area Thursday.

The main feature of interest is a strong cold front that will move
into the area late tonight.  The front looks to push into the NW
part of the region before sunrise so would affect morning lows there
before hanging up during the day.  Some disagreement with models
handling the front but it appears the front wont move through the
region till Saturday night.  Expect much colder temperatures Sunday
morning with Northern Lea Co possibly seeing freezing temps.  Have
considered a freeze warning for that location as could be the last
freeze of the season but for now will just continue with the SPS
highlighting the change.

Not very excite about thunderstorm chances but there will be some
low chances as early as tonight and increasing Saturday along and
behind the front.  Eta keeps most of the rain north of the area
until Saturday afternoon with some during the evening for the east.
Gfs develops more over the region Saturday with Ecm the wettest with
rain Saturday night over the Permian Basin.  Overall not expecting
much rainfall but someone right under a storm could get a good rain.
Will have another chance of rain next week with the upper trough.

The Guadalupe Mtns have already been at high wind today and there is
a High Wind Warning in effect so will let that ride.  There is also
a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mtns Saturday/Saturday night as
700mb winds in the vicinity stay over 40kts much of the night and
the front squeezes through the Pass.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     61  71  40  71 /  30  30  40  10
Carlsbad                       55  66  38  74 /  20  20  20  10
Dryden                         66  84  49  82 /  10  10  20  10
Fort Stockton                  62  74  40  73 /  10  20  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 49  59  34  66 /  10  20  20  10
Hobbs                          51  61  33  67 /  20  30  30  10
Marfa                          58  64  33  70 /  10  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           61  72  39  71 /  20  30  40  10
Odessa                         60  71  38  70 /  20  30  30  10
Wink                           59  70  40  74 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
545
FXUS64 KMAF 281844
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
144 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Closed upper low will move down across the 4 Corners region
later today and swing across NM Saturday.  This low will cross the
Panhandle then swing over OK Sunday.  As the low moves east weak
ridging will build in from the west with high pressure over the area
into the early next week.  By Tuesday an upper trough will dive out
of Canada... move across the Southern Rockies Wednesday... and pass
over the area Thursday.

The main feature of interest is a strong cold front that will move
into the area late tonight.  The front looks to push into the NW
part of the region before sunrise so would affect morning lows there
before hanging up during the day.  Some disagreement with models
handling the front but it appears the front wont move through the
region till Saturday night.  Expect much colder temperatures Sunday
morning with Northern Lea Co possibly seeing freezing temps.  Have
considered a freeze warning for that location as could be the last
freeze of the season but for now will just continue with the SPS
highlighting the change.

Not very excite about thunderstorm chances but there will be some
low chances as early as tonight and increasing Saturday along and
behind the front.  Eta keeps most of the rain north of the area
until Saturday afternoon with some during the evening for the east.
Gfs develops more over the region Saturday with Ecm the wettest with
rain Saturday night over the Permian Basin.  Overall not expecting
much rainfall but someone right under a storm could get a good rain.
Will have another chance of rain next week with the upper trough.

The Guadalupe Mtns have already been at high wind today and there is
a High Wind Warning in effect so will let that ride.  There is also
a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mtns Saturday/Saturday night as
700mb winds in the vicinity stay over 40kts much of the night and
the front squeezes through the Pass.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     61  71  40  71 /  30  30  40  10
Carlsbad                       55  66  38  74 /  20  20  20  10
Dryden                         66  84  49  82 /  10  10  20  10
Fort Stockton                  62  74  40  73 /  10  20  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 48  59  34  66 /  10  20  20  10
Hobbs                          50  61  33  67 /  20  30  30  10
Marfa                          53  64  33  70 /  10  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           60  72  39  71 /  20  30  40  10
Odessa                         60  71  38  70 /  20  30  30  10
Wink                           58  70  40  74 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

27/72
840
FXUS64 KMAF 281745
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals. Fairly light easterly winds most
areas with a weak front draped across the region late morning.
This front is expected to retreat back to the north this afternoon
with gusty SW winds prevailing through the afternoon. Otherwise,
winds may shift to the north late tonight/early Saturday as
another front sags south however this front may stall with winds
at PEQ, INK, FST and potentially MAF remaining from the west.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

An active weather pattern continues to bring wind along with large
variations in temperatures. A weak cold front has entered northern
portions of the Permian Basin this morning. Temperatures have cooled
into the 50`s behind the boundary, but it won`t last long as the
front washes out soon after sunrise. This will be in response to a
deepening upper trough over the Four Corners region. Southwesterly
flow aloft will increase and induce an area of low pressure at the
surface over the TX Panhandle. This will increase southwesterly low
level flow across the area again today, but winds don`t look quite
as strong as Thursday. We will see high winds across the Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon, although less so compared to previous
days. Temperatures will be hot again with highs generally about 10
degrees above normal.

The upper trough deepens further into a closed low to our west by
Saturday morning. A few storms are possible during this time as a
shortwave encounters low level moisture across the eastern
Permian Basin. Meanwhile a cold front will move south across the
TX Panhandle and E NM reaching the northern Permian Basin early
Saturday morning. This front may stall during the day in response
to increasing ascent ahead of the upper storm. Even if the front
doesn`t move through, temperatures will be much cooler across the
area due to extensive cloud cover. Expect strong winds as well
during the day Saturday with high winds again across the Guadalupe
Mountains. The front will then blast through Saturday night as
the upper trough lifts into OK. The ECMWF is an outlier, but it is
worth mentioning that it brings a mix of rain/snow into northern
portions of the Permian Basin Saturday night. Have not included
this solution in the forecast, but it bears watching. Nonetheless,
expect strong northerly winds and sharply colder temperatures by
Sunday morning. Lows are expected to fall into the 30`s and 40`s
with freezing temperatures possible across the higher elevations
of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and northern portions of Lea
County. Full green-up has not yet occurred across these locations
so will hold off on any freeze products and go with an SPS
highlighting the late season freeze. FYI...the record for Midland
International is 41 degrees for April 30.

Cooler temperatures won`t last long as westerly mid level flow
brings above normal temperatures back to area Monday and Tuesday.
Another decent cold front will drop temperatures again by
Wednesday. Unfortunately, much of the region will remain dry over
the next week.

FIRE WEATHER...

It will be hot and windy again today, but winds won`t be quite as
strong and RH/s will not be as low as Thursday.  It appears the best
20 foot winds will be over SE NM this afternoon, but since minimum
RHs will struggle to drop to 15% or less, critical conditions are
not expected.  The Guadalupe Mountains will be windier than SE NM,
but afternoon RH/s will drop to 15-20% there.  Farther south,
minimum RHs will drop to 10-15%, but 20 foot wind speeds will not
eclipse 20 mph sustained for very long, if at all.  Therefore, will
issue a Fire Danger Statement for locations along and west of a
Hobbs to Big Bend line for this afternoon and early evening.

Recovery will be poor over southwest texas tonight, but good farther
north where a cold front moving into the region will cool
temperatures more.  Just how far south this front moves southward by
Saturday afternoon will determine whether near critical, or
critical, fire weather conditions may occur Saturday afternoon.
Locations from the Guadalupe Mountains to the Upper trans Pecos, or
perhaps the SE NM Plains and portions of the Permian Basin could see
the heightened fire weather conditions.  It does appear colder air
will splash southward Saturday night and Sunday, and mitigate fire
weather concerns for a day or two.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  61  72  40 /   0  30  30  40
Carlsbad                       89  55  64  36 /   0  20  20  20
Dryden                         96  66  84  45 /   0  10  10  20
Fort Stockton                  95  62  74  41 /   0  10  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 82  48  59  33 /   0  10  20  20
Hobbs                          86  50  61  34 /   0  20  30  30
Marfa                          88  60  67  35 /   0  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           92  60  72  40 /   0  20  30  40
Odessa                         91  60  71  38 /   0  20  30  30
Wink                           92  58  70  39 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

27/72/27
330
FXUS64 KMAF 281009
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
509 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A cold front will turn winds to the north at most area terminals
this morning, but winds will come around to the southwest this
afternoon with a few higher gusts.  VFR conditions will prevail
areawide today and tonight otherwise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

An active weather pattern continues to bring wind along with large
variations in temperatures. A weak cold front has entered northern
portions of the Permian Basin this morning. Temperatures have cooled
into the 50`s behind the boundary, but it won`t last long as the
front washes out soon after sunrise. This will be in response to a
deepening upper trough over the Four Corners region. Southwesterly
flow aloft will increase and induce an area of low pressure at the
surface over the TX Panhandle. This will increase southwesterly low
level flow across the area again today, but winds don`t look quite
as strong as Thursday. We will see high winds across the Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon, although less so compared to previous
days. Temperatures will be hot again with highs generally about 10
degrees above normal.

The upper trough deepens further into a closed low to our west by
Saturday morning. A few storms are possible during this time as a
shortwave encounters low level moisture across the eastern
Permian Basin. Meanwhile a cold front will move south across the
TX Panhandle and E NM reaching the northern Permian Basin early
Saturday morning. This front may stall during the day in response
to increasing ascent ahead of the upper storm. Even if the front
doesn`t move through, temperatures will be much cooler across the
area due to extensive cloud cover. Expect strong winds as well
during the day Saturday with high winds again across the Guadalupe
Mountains. The front will then blast through Saturday night as
the upper trough lifts into OK. The ECMWF is an outlier, but it is
worth mentioning that it brings a mix of rain/snow into northern
portions of the Permian Basin Saturday night. Have not included
this solution in the forecast, but it bears watching. Nonetheless,
expect strong northerly winds and sharply colder temperatures by
Sunday morning. Lows are expected to fall into the 30`s and 40`s
with freezing temperatures possible across the higher elevations
of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and northern portions of Lea
County. Full green-up has not yet occurred across these locations
so will hold off on any freeze products and go with an SPS
highlighting the late season freeze. FYI...the record for Midland
International is 41 degrees for April 30.

Cooler temperatures won`t last long as westerly mid level flow
brings above normal temperatures back to area Monday and Tuesday.
Another decent cold front will drop temperatures again by
Wednesday. Unfortunately, much of the region will remain dry over
the next week.

FIRE WEATHER...

It will be hot and windy again today, but winds won`t be quite as
strong and RH/s will not be as low as Thursday.  It appears the best
20 foot winds will be over SE NM this afternoon, but since minimum
RHs will struggle to drop to 15% or less, critical conditions are
not expected.  The Guadalupe Mountains will be windier than SE NM,
but afternoon RH/s will drop to 15-20% there.  Farther south,
minimum RHs will drop to 10-15%, but 20 foot wind speeds will not
eclipse 20 mph sustained for very long, if at all.  Therefore, will
issue a Fire Danger Statement for locations along and west of a
Hobbs to Big Bend line for this afternoon and early evening.

Recovery will be poor over southwest texas tonight, but good farther
north where a cold front moving into the region will cool
temperatures more.  Just how far south this front moves southward by
Saturday afternoon will determine whether near critical, or
critical, fire weather conditions may occur Saturday afternoon.
Locations from the Guadalupe Mountains to the Upper trans Pecos, or
perhaps the SE NM Plains and portions of the Permian Basin could see
the heightened fire weather conditions.  It does appear colder air
will splash southward Saturday night and Sunday, and mitigate fire
weather concerns for a day or two.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  61  72  40 /   0  30  30  40
Carlsbad                       89  55  64  36 /   0  20  20  20
Dryden                         96  66  84  45 /   0  10  10  20
Fort Stockton                  95  62  74  41 /   0  10  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 82  48  59  33 /   0  10  20  20
Hobbs                          86  50  61  34 /   0  20  30  30
Marfa                          88  60  67  35 /   0  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           92  60  72  40 /   0  20  30  40
Odessa                         91  60  71  38 /   0  20  30  30
Wink                           92  58  70  39 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
112
FXUS64 KMAF 280928
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
428 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

An active weather pattern continues to bring wind along with large
variations in temperatures. A weak cold front has entered northern
portions of the Permian Basin this morning. Temperatures have cooled
into the 50`s behind the boundary, but it won`t last long as the
front washes out soon after sunrise. This will be in response to a
deepening upper trough over the Four Corners region. Southwesterly
flow aloft will increase and induce an area of low pressure at the
surface over the TX Panhandle. This will increase southwesterly low
level flow across the area again today, but winds don`t look quite
as strong as Thursday. We will see high winds across the Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon, although less so compared to previous
days. Temperatures will be hot again with highs generally about 10
degrees above normal.

The upper trough deepens further into a closed low to our west by
Saturday morning. A few storms are possible during this time as a
shortwave encounters low level moisture across the eastern
Permian Basin. Meanwhile a cold front will move south across the
TX Panhandle and E NM reaching the northern Permian Basin early
Saturday morning. This front may stall during the day in response
to increasing ascent ahead of the upper storm. Even if the front
doesn`t move through, temperatures will be much cooler across the
area due to extensive cloud cover. Expect strong winds as well
during the day Saturday with high winds again across the Guadalupe
Mountains. The front will then blast through Saturday night as
the upper trough lifts into OK. The ECMWF is an outlier, but it is
worth mentioning that it brings a mix of rain/snow into northern
portions of the Permian Basin Saturday night. Have not included
this solution in the forecast, but it bears watching. Nonetheless,
expect strong northerly winds and sharply colder temperatures by
Sunday morning. Lows are expected to fall into the 30`s and 40`s
with freezing temperatures possible across the higher elevations
of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and northern portions of Lea
County. Full green-up has not yet occurred across these locations
so will hold off on any freeze products and go with an SPS
highlighting the late season freeze. FYI...the record for Midland
International is 41 degrees for April 30.

Cooler temperatures won`t last long as westerly mid level flow
brings above normal temperatures back to area Monday and Tuesday.
Another decent cold front will drop temperatures again by
Wednesday. Unfortunately, much of the region will remain dry over
the next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

It will be hot and windy again today, but winds won`t be quite as
strong and RH/s will not be as low as Thursday.  It appears the best
20 foot winds will be over SE NM this afternoon, but since minimum
RHs will struggle to drop to 15% or less, critical conditions are
not expected.  The Guadalupe Mountains will be windier than SE NM,
but afternoon RH/s will drop to 15-20% there.  Farther south,
minimum RHs will drop to 10-15%, but 20 foot wind speeds will not
eclipse 20 mph sustained for very long, if at all.  Therefore, will
issue a Fire Danger Statement for locations along and west of a
Hobbs to Big Bend line for this afternoon and early evening.

Recovery will be poor over southwest texas tonight, but good farther
north where a cold front moving into the region will cool
temperatures more.  Just how far south this front moves southward by
Saturday afternoon will determine whether near critical, or
critical, fire weather conditions may occur Saturday afternoon.
Locations from the Guadalupe Mountains to the Upper trans Pecos, or
perhaps the SE NM Plains and portions of the Permian Basin could see
the heightened fire weather conditions.  It does appear colder air
will splash southward Saturday night and Sunday, and mitigate fire
weather concerns for a day or two.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  61  72  40 /   0  30  30  40
Carlsbad                       89  55  64  36 /   0  20  20  20
Dryden                         96  66  84  45 /   0  10  10  20
Fort Stockton                  95  62  74  41 /   0  10  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 82  48  59  33 /   0  10  20  20
Hobbs                          86  50  61  34 /   0  20  30  30
Marfa                          88  60  67  35 /   0  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           92  60  72  40 /   0  20  30  40
Odessa                         91  60  71  38 /   0  20  30  30
Wink                           92  58  70  39 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

67/29
974
FXUS64 KMAF 280501
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1201 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.
High clouds will continue to spread over the region, but will not
hamper southwest to west winds increasing to 15-25kt sustained,
with gusts as high as 35kt at KCNM, this afternoon. A cold front
will move into the area tonight, but will likely not affect any
terminals until after 29/06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     61  90  56  70 /   0   0  30  30
Carlsbad                       61  87  56  65 /   0  10  20  20
Dryden                         64  95  67  86 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  65  94  63  75 /   0   0  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 56  78  49  58 /   0   0  20  20
Hobbs                          56  84  50  61 /   0  10  20  20
Marfa                          51  87  55  68 /   0   0  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           62  91  59  72 /   0   0  20  20
Odessa                         62  91  59  71 /   0   0  20  20
Wink                           62  93  59  71 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
847
FXUS64 KMAF 280115
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
815 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the expiration of the Wind Advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Winds have begun to diminish this evening, with most locations in
the Wind Advisory now below criteria. While gusts will continue
the next several hours, speeds are expected to continue to
decrease, and thus, the Wind Advisory has been allowed to expire.
The High Wind Warning in the Guadalupe Mountains remains in
effect through later this evening. Updated products will be out
shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 643 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions with high clouds will prevail the next 24 hours.
Southwest winds will continue to gust to 25-35kt the first few
hours of the forecast period this evening, and though speeds will
diminish somewhat overnight, some gusts to around 20kt will still
be possible. Winds will increase again by 15-18Z, with gusts to
25-35kt expected at all terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 227 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A broad upper trough is over most of the country with the base of
the trough over southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Strong winds at
the base of the trough are mixing downward to the surface across the
area. A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains
and Wind Advisories are in effect for the southeast New Mexico
plains, central and western portions of the Permian Basin, Van Horn
and the Highway 54 Corridor, Davis Mountains, and the Upper Trans
Pecos for today. A surface low is present to the north of the area
across the Texas panhandle and eastern New Mexico resulting in
southwest to west winds across the CWA. This will allow temperatures
to rebound this afternoon into the 90s across much of the area. This
pattern has resulted in critical fire weather across the western
half of the CWA. See fire weather discussion below.

The upper trough digs southward over the Intermountain West on
Friday. Winds are expected to be out of the west to southwest on
Friday but not as strong as today. However, high winds will be
possible across the Guadalupe Mountains again Friday afternoon. Have
issued a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains for Friday
afternoon although conditions will be marginal. Temperatures on
Friday will be similar to those today. The previously mentioned
upper trough will continue to dig southward and begin to move over
the region on Saturday. This will result in a cold front moving into
the area on Saturday and a chance of showers and thunderstorms
across portions of the area Friday night through Saturday night. The
precipitation is expected to be out of the area by Sunday, and
temperatures will be well below normal with highs mostly in the 60s
and 70s as the surface high further impacts the area. After the
upper low/trough lifts northeastward, another broader upper trough
will develop over the central part of the country resulting in the
CWA remaining at/toward the base of the upper trough through next
Wednesday. This upper pattern will result in warming temperatures
through Tuesday with west southwest surface winds. As this upper
trough moves east, a cold front will move into the area on
Wednesday. There might be precipitation associated with this front
but chances are not looking very good.

FIRE WEATHER...

Strong west wind mixing down to the surface today producing warm...
dry... and windy conditions with high to very high fire danger.  A
Red Flag warning remains in effect this afternoon from SE NM down to
the Big Bend.  Friday not looking as windy... could see some
locations approach critical fire wx conditions.  SE NM looks windy
enough but minimum RH too high.  The Trans Pecos looks dry enough
but wind speeds not as high.  Therefore will not issue any
additional fire wx products at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     61  90  56  70 /   0   0  30  30
Carlsbad                       61  87  56  65 /   0  10  20  20
Dryden                         64  95  67  86 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  65  94  63  75 /   0   0  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 56  78  49  58 /   0   0  20  20
Hobbs                          56  84  50  61 /   0  10  20  20
Marfa                          51  87  55  68 /   0   0  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           62  91  59  72 /   0   0  20  20
Odessa                         62  91  59  71 /   0   0  20  20
Wink                           62  93  59  71 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
093
FXUS64 KMAF 272343
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
643 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with high clouds will prevail the next 24 hours.
Southwest winds will continue to gust to 25-35kt the first few
hours of the forecast period this evening, and though speeds will
diminish somewhat overnight, some gusts to around 20kt will still
be possible. Winds will increase again by 15-18Z, with gusts to
25-35kt expected at all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 227 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A broad upper trough is over most of the country with the base of
the trough over southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Strong winds at
the base of the trough are mixing downward to the surface across the
area. A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains
and Wind Advisories are in effect for the southeast New Mexico
plains, central and western portions of the Permian Basin, Van Horn
and the Highway 54 Corridor, Davis Mountains, and the Upper Trans
Pecos for today. A surface low is present to the north of the area
across the Texas panhandle and eastern New Mexico resulting in
southwest to west winds across the CWA. This will allow temperatures
to rebound this afternoon into the 90s across much of the area. This
pattern has resulted in critical fire weather across the western
half of the CWA. See fire weather discussion below.

The upper trough digs southward over the Intermountain West on
Friday. Winds are expected to be out of the west to southwest on
Friday but not as strong as today. However, high winds will be
possible across the Guadalupe Mountains again Friday afternoon. Have
issued a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains for Friday
afternoon although conditions will be marginal. Temperatures on
Friday will be similar to those today. The previously mentioned
upper trough will continue to dig southward and begin to move over
the region on Saturday. This will result in a cold front moving into
the area on Saturday and a chance of showers and thunderstorms
across portions of the area Friday night through Saturday night. The
precipitation is expected to be out of the area by Sunday, and
temperatures will be well below normal with highs mostly in the 60s
and 70s as the surface high further impacts the area. After the
upper low/trough lifts northeastward, another broader upper trough
will develop over the central part of the country resulting in the
CWA remaining at/toward the base of the upper trough through next
Wednesday. This upper pattern will result in warming temperatures
through Tuesday with west southwest surface winds. As this upper
trough moves east, a cold front will move into the area on
Wednesday. There might be precipitation associated with this front
but chances are not looking very good.

FIRE WEATHER...

Strong west wind mixing down to the surface today producing warm...
dry... and windy conditions with high to very high fire danger.  A
Red Flag warning remains in effect this afternoon from SE NM down to
the Big Bend.  Friday not looking as windy... could see some
locations approach critical fire wx conditions.  SE NM looks windy
enough but minimum RH too high.  The Trans Pecos looks dry enough
but wind speeds not as high.  Therefore will not issue any
additional fire wx products at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     61  90  56  70 /   0   0  30  30
Carlsbad                       61  87  56  65 /   0  10  20  20
Dryden                         64  95  67  86 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  65  94  63  75 /   0   0  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 56  78  49  58 /   0   0  20  20
Hobbs                          56  84  50  61 /   0  10  20  20
Marfa                          51  87  55  68 /   0   0  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           62  91  59  72 /   0   0  20  20
Odessa                         62  91  59  71 /   0   0  20  20
Wink                           62  93  59  71 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Loving-
     Martin-Midland-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
758
FXUS64 KMAF 271927
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
227 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

A broad upper trough is over most of the country with the base of
the trough over southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Strong winds at
the base of the trough are mixing downward to the surface across the
area. A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains
and Wind Advisories are in effect for the southeast New Mexico
plains, central and western portions of the Permian Basin, Van Horn
and the Highway 54 Corridor, Davis Mountains, and the Upper Trans
Pecos for today. A surface low is present to the north of the area
across the Texas panhandle and eastern New Mexico resulting in
southwest to west winds across the CWA. This will allow temperatures
to rebound this afternoon into the 90s across much of the area. This
pattern has resulted in critical fire weather across the western
half of the CWA. See fire weather discussion below.

The upper trough digs southward over the Intermountain West on
Friday. Winds are expected to be out of the west to southwest on
Friday but not as strong as today. However, high winds will be
possible across the Guadalupe Mountains again Friday afternoon. Have
issued a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains for Friday
afternoon although conditions will be marginal. Temperatures on
Friday will be similar to those today. The previously mentioned
upper trough will continue to dig southward and begin to move over
the region on Saturday. This will result in a cold front moving into
the area on Saturday and a chance of showers and thunderstorms
across portions of the area Friday night through Saturday night. The
precipitation is expected to be out of the area by Sunday, and
temperatures will be well below normal with highs mostly in the 60s
and 70s as the surface high further impacts the area. After the
upper low/trough lifts northeastward, another broader upper trough
will develop over the central part of the country resulting in the
CWA remaining at/toward the base of the upper trough through next
Wednesday. This upper pattern will result in warming temperatures
through Tuesday with west southwest surface winds. As this upper
trough moves east, a cold front will move into the area on
Wednesday. There might be precipitation associated with this front
but chances are not looking very good.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Strong west wind mixing down to the surface today producing warm...
dry... and windy conditions with high to very high fire danger.  A
Red Flag warning remains in effect this afternoon from SE NM down to
the Big Bend.  Friday not looking as windy... could see some
locations approach critical fire wx conditions.  SE NM looks windy
enough but minimum RH too high.  The Trans Pecos looks dry enough
but wind speeds not as high.  Therefore will not issue any
additional fire wx products at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     61  90  56  70 /   0   0  30  30
Carlsbad                       61  87  56  65 /   0  10  20  20
Dryden                         64  95  67  86 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  65  94  63  75 /   0   0  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 56  78  49  58 /   0   0  20  20
Hobbs                          56  84  50  61 /   0  10  20  20
Marfa                          51  87  55  68 /   0   0  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           62  91  59  72 /   0   0  20  20
Odessa                         62  91  59  71 /   0   0  20  20
Wink                           62  93  59  71 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Loving-
     Martin-Midland-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

72/80
115
FXUS64 KMAF 271628
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1128 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with increasing high clouds. Gusty W/SW wind has already
picked up and will remain brisk until early evening.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The roller coaster ride of temperatures continues today and into
next week as an active weather pattern resides over the region. A
strong jet crossing the Rockies today will induce and area of low
pressure at the surface in NE NM. Strong mid level winds along
with a tightening pressure gradient will lead to increasing
westerly winds through the day today. The strongest winds are
expected across the Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent plains this
afternoon. Will upgrade to a High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory for
the affected locations. Have also added blowing dust where winds
will be strongest this afternoon. A downslope component to the
winds will also send temperatures soaring well above normal today.
High will likely be about 20 degrees warmer than yesterday. The
above conditions will lead to extreme fire weather conditions
across SE NM and the higher terrain of W TX. Please see the Fire
WX discussion below.

A weak cold front will approach if not move into the northern
Permian Basin tonight and Friday morning. This front will quickly
lift north/wash out in response to a deepening upper trough over the
Four Corners. Expect another hot, dry, and windy day Friday before
we see major changes this weekend. As the trough inches toward the
area, a Pacific cold front will push across early Saturday morning.
While we could see a few showers or storms along the front, QPF
amounts look to be light. One thing you will notice is the cooler
temperatures Saturday afternoon as highs cool about 20 degrees from
what we will see Friday. Winds will also be on the increase as the
upper system further deepens over the TX Panhandle Saturday
afternoon. An even stronger front will arrive Saturday evening
bringing much colder temperatures and high winds to the region.
Temperatures will fall sharply behind the front with lows likely
falling into the 30`s and 40`s by Sunday morning across much of the
area. It is looking likely we will see a late season freeze
across northern Lea county and possibly further south.
Temperatures will only rebound into the 60`s Sunday afternoon.

NW mid level flow behind this storm system will bring warmer conditions
early next week. Expect temperatures to rebound back above normal
by Tuesday. Another cold front is slated to arrive sometime midweek.

FIRE WEATHER...

WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, NW
flow aloft on the backside of a trough ejecting into the Great Lakes
Region.  Subsidence/Mixing today will result in another day of
earth, wind & fire for the region.  Although return flow has resumed
after yesterday`s front, and as a consequence RH recovery improving,
mixing later on will veer 20` winds around to the W, and downslope
warming will ramp temps back to well-abv normal, yielding critical
RH area wide during the afternoon.  The entire forecast area is in
at least High Fire Danger (FD), and practically everything from the
Davis/Apache Mtns northward is in extreme FD.  ERCs for the Trans
Pecos remain at normal, and near-normal for the Southern Plains.
Extreme RFTI extends along the Pecos Rvr Valley from north of
Roswell down to Girvin, so we have added Loving, Winkler, and Ward
Counties to the RFW.  The only place west of the NM/TX border not in
the RFW will be the Presidio Valley, which looks to have 20` winds
under criteria.  Everything east of the NM/TX border, as mentioned
yesterday, is still to greened up for a warning.

Critical fire wx conditions will be possible again Friday and
Saturday, mainly on the plains surrounding the Guadalupes.  However,
current products are already getting quite lengthy as zones are
parsed out, so to avoid confusion, we`ll forego issuing a
watch and emphasize more critical fire wx possible in the HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  91  63  77 /   0   0  30  20
Carlsbad                       63  87  59  68 /   0   0  20  20
Dryden                         64  96  67  89 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  65  94  63  79 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 60  80  52  61 /   0   0  10  20
Hobbs                          57  85  54  66 /   0   0  20  20
Marfa                          57  87  57  70 /   0   0  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           64  91  62  76 /   0   0  20  20
Odessa                         64  91  62  76 /   0   0  20  20
Wink                           64  92  60  74 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Loving-
     Martin-Midland-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
938
FXUS64 KMAF 271038
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
538 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, w/a few high clouds
anticipated at times. Sfc flow will veer to SW and become gusty
this morning, and continue into the evening hours. Convective
temps will be too high for any appreciable cu development.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The roller coaster ride of temperatures continues today and into
next week as an active weather pattern resides over the region. A
strong jet crossing the Rockies today will induce and area of low
pressure at the surface in NE NM. Strong mid level winds along
with a tightening pressure gradient will lead to increasing
westerly winds through the day today. The strongest winds are
expected across the Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent plains this
afternoon. Will upgrade to a High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory for
the affected locations. Have also added blowing dust where winds
will be strongest this afternoon. A downslope component to the
winds will also send temperatures soaring well above normal today.
High will likely be about 20 degrees warmer than yesterday. The
above conditions will lead to extreme fire weather conditions
across SE NM and the higher terrain of W TX. Please see the Fire
WX discussion below.

A weak cold front will approach if not move into the northern
Permian Basin tonight and Friday morning. This front will quickly
lift north/wash out in response to a deepening upper trough over the
Four Corners. Expect another hot, dry, and windy day Friday before
we see major changes this weekend. As the trough inches toward the
area, a Pacific cold front will push across early Saturday morning.
While we could see a few showers or storms along the front, QPF
amounts look to be light. One thing you will notice is the cooler
temperatures Saturday afternoon as highs cool about 20 degrees from
what we will see Friday. Winds will also be on the increase as the
upper system further deepens over the TX Panhandle Saturday
afternoon. An even stronger front will arrive Saturday evening
bringing much colder temperatures and high winds to the region.
Temperatures will fall sharply behind the front with lows likely
falling into the 30`s and 40`s by Sunday morning across much of the
area. It is looking likely we will see a late season freeze
across northern Lea county and possibly further south.
Temperatures will only rebound into the 60`s Sunday afternoon.

NW mid level flow behind this storm system will bring warmer conditions
early next week. Expect temperatures to rebound back above normal
by Tuesday. Another cold front is slated to arrive sometime midweek.

FIRE WEATHER...

WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, NW
flow aloft on the backside of a trough ejecting into the Great Lakes
Region.  Subsidence/Mixing today will result in another day of
earth, wind & fire for the region.  Although return flow has resumed
after yesterday`s front, and as a consequence RH recovery improving,
mixing later on will veer 20` winds around to the W, and downslope
warming will ramp temps back to well-abv normal, yielding critical
RH area wide during the afternoon.  The entire forecast area is in
at least High Fire Danger (FD), and practically everything from the
Davis/Apache Mtns northward is in extreme FD.  ERCs for the Trans
Pecos remain at normal, and near-normal for the Southern Plains.
Extreme RFTI extends along the Pecos Rvr Valley from north of
Roswell down to Girvin, so we have added Loving, Winkler, and Ward
Counties to the RFW.  The only place west of the NM/TX border not in
the RFW will be the Presidio Valley, which looks to have 20` winds
under criteria.  Everything east of the NM/TX border, as mentioned
yesterday, is still to greened up for a warning.

Critical fire wx conditions will be possible again Friday and
Saturday, mainly on the plains surrounding the Guadalupes.  However,
current products are already getting quite lengthy as zones are
parsed out, so to avoid confusion, we`ll forego issuing a
watch and emphasize more critical fire wx possible in the HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  62  91  63 /   0   0   0  30
Carlsbad                       91  63  87  59 /   0   0   0  20
Dryden                         93  64  96  67 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  94  65  94  63 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 82  60  80  52 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          87  57  85  54 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                          88  57  87  57 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           92  64  91  62 /   0   0   0  20
Odessa                         92  64  91  62 /   0   0   0  20
Wink                           94  64  92  60 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7 PM
     MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Loving-Martin-Midland-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/29/44
830
FXUS64 KMAF 270911
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
411 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The roller coaster ride of temperatures continues today and into
next week as an active weather pattern resides over the region. A
strong jet crossing the Rockies today will induce and area of low
pressure at the surface in NE NM. Strong mid level winds along
with a tightening pressure gradient will lead to increasing
westerly winds through the day today. The strongest winds are
expected across the Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent plains this
afternoon. Will upgrade to a High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory for
the affected locations. Have also added blowing dust where winds
will be strongest this afternoon. A downslope component to the
winds will also send temperatures soaring well above normal today.
High will likely be about 20 degrees warmer than yesterday. The
above conditions will lead to extreme fire weather conditions
across SE NM and the higher terrain of W TX. Please see the Fire
WX discussion below.

A weak cold front will approach if not move into the northern
Permian Basin tonight and Friday morning. This front will quickly
lift north/wash out in response to a deepening upper trough over the
Four Corners. Expect another hot, dry, and windy day Friday before
we see major changes this weekend. As the trough inches toward the
area, a Pacific cold front will push across early Saturday morning.
While we could see a few showers or storms along the front, QPF
amounts look to be light. One thing you will notice is the cooler
temperatures Saturday afternoon as highs cool about 20 degrees from
what we will see Friday. Winds will also be on the increase as the
upper system further deepens over the TX Panhandle Saturday
afternoon. An even stronger front will arrive Saturday evening
bringing much colder temperatures and high winds to the region.
Temperatures will fall sharply behind the front with lows likely
falling into the 30`s and 40`s by Sunday morning across much of the
area. It is looking likely we will see a late season freeze
across northern Lea county and possibly further south.
Temperatures will only rebound into the 60`s Sunday afternoon.

NW mid level flow behind this storm system will bring warmer conditions
early next week. Expect temperatures to rebound back above normal
by Tuesday. Another cold front is slated to arrive sometime midweek.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, NW
flow aloft on the backside of a trough ejecting into the Great Lakes
Region.  Subsidence/Mixing today will result in another day of
earth, wind & fire for the region.  Although return flow has resumed
after yesterday`s front, and as a consequence RH recovery improving,
mixing later on will veer 20` winds around to the W, and downslope
warming will ramp temps back to well-abv normal, yielding critical
RH area wide during the afternoon.  The entire forecast area is in
at least High Fire Danger (FD), and practically everything from the
Davis/Apache Mtns northward is in extreme FD.  ERCs for the Trans
Pecos remain at normal, and near-normal for the Southern Plains.
Extreme RFTI extends along the Pecos Rvr Valley from north of
Roswell down to Girvin, so we have added Loving, Winkler, and Ward
Counties to the RFW.  The only place west of the NM/TX border not in
the RFW will be the Presidio Valley, which looks to have 20` winds
under criteria.  Everything east of the NM/TX border, as mentioned
yesterday, is still to greened up for a warning.

Critical fire wx conditions will be possible again Friday and
Saturday, mainly on the plains surrounding the Guadalupes.  However,
current products are already getting quite lengthy as zones are
parsed out, so to avoid confusion, we`ll forego issuing a
watch and emphasize more critical fire wx possible in the HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  62  91  63 /   0   0   0  30
Carlsbad                       91  63  87  59 /   0   0   0  20
Dryden                         93  64  96  67 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  94  65  94  63 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 82  60  80  52 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          87  57  85  54 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                          88  57  87  57 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           92  64  91  62 /   0   0   0  20
Odessa                         92  64  91  62 /   0   0   0  20
Wink                           94  64  92  60 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7 PM
     MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Loving-Martin-Midland-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/29
187
FXUS64 KMAF 270511
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1211 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, w/a few high clouds
anticipated at times. Sfc flow will veer to SW and become gusty
this morning, and continue into the evening hours. Convective
temps will be too high for any appreciable cu development.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 615 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/

UPDATE...
Sent a quick update to cancel the Red Flag Warning as fire
weather concerns have improved across most areas due to
diminished wind speeds.

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals. Winds will be somewhat light and
variable overnight then west winds increase to near 20-25kt
sustained by mid day Thursday, persisting through the remainder of
the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 230 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough centered over the central part of the
country. A cold front is pushing south into the area allowing for a
brief relief from the 90 degree temperatures. High temperatures
today are expected to be in the 70s and 80s across most of the area.
Despite this cool down, there is still fire weather concerns across
the southern CWA. See fire weather discussion below.

An extension of the previous upper trough will pass over the area on
Thursday allowing for higher winds aloft to mix down to the surface.
This will create possible high winds in the Guadalupe Mountains so a
High Wind Watch is in effect Thursday for this area. Surface winds
will become southwesterly to westerly with a surface trough in the
Texas panhandle. These winds will contribute to downslope warming
with high temperatures in the 80s and 90s across most of West Texas
and southeast New Mexico on Thursday. On Friday, winds will not be
quite as strong as on Thursday but otherwise similar conditions will
be present with highs mostly in the 80s and 90s.

Another upper trough will begin moving over the central part of the
country on Saturday. This will bring a cold front into the area on
Saturday as well as a chance of precipitation mainly across the
northern and eastern half of the CWA Friday night through Saturday
night. The precipitation will likely be out of the area by Sunday
but the surface high will move closer so high temperatures on Sunday
will be in the 60s and 70s.

A warm-up is expected on Monday as surface winds become west to
southwest and the previous upper trough lifts northeastward.
Temperatures on Tuesday will continue to warm up; otherwise, not
much change is expected. Another upper trough will move over the
Central Plains next Wednesday bringing a cold front into the area
but no precipitation at this time.

FIRE WEATHER...

An upper level trough is exiting the region today, however west
winds will remain strong enough to continue the critical fire
weather threat in far West Texas and southeast New Mexico into
tomorrow. Winds are diminishing this afternoon behind a quick
hitting cold front and will return from the southwest overnight.
Then a developing upper level low over the western states will
increase the wind speeds enough tomorrow to create critical fire
weather conditions for much of the area west of the Pecos River.
Windy conditions are expected to continue into the weekend but
cooler temperatures will increase humidities enough to alleviate the
fire danger threat and prevent the issuance of a Red Flag Warning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  61  90  61 /   0   0   0  20
Carlsbad                       91  62  88  57 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         93  64  95  66 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  94  65  93  63 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 80  57  80  53 /   0   0   0  20
Hobbs                          88  57  85  53 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                          86  51  86  53 /   0  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           92  63  91  62 /   0   0   0  20
Odessa                         91  64  91  62 /   0   0   0  20
Wink                           94  64  92  60 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM MDT Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from 11 AM MDT Thursday through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from 11 AM MDT Thursday through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/29/44
246
FXUS64 KMAF 262315
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
615 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Sent a quick update to cancel the Red Flag Warning as fire
weather concerns have improved across most areas due to
diminished wind speeds.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals. Winds will be somewhat light and
variable overnight then west winds increase to near 20-25kt
sustained by mid day Thursday, persisting through the remainder of
the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 230 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough centered over the central part of the
country. A cold front is pushing south into the area allowing for a
brief relief from the 90 degree temperatures. High temperatures
today are expected to be in the 70s and 80s across most of the area.
Despite this cool down, there is still fire weather concerns across
the southern CWA. See fire weather discussion below.

An extension of the previous upper trough will pass over the area on
Thursday allowing for higher winds aloft to mix down to the surface.
This will create possible high winds in the Guadalupe Mountains so a
High Wind Watch is in effect Thursday for this area. Surface winds
will become southwesterly to westerly with a surface trough in the
Texas panhandle. These winds will contribute to downslope warming
with high temperatures in the 80s and 90s across most of West Texas
and southeast New Mexico on Thursday. On Friday, winds will not be
quite as strong as on Thursday but otherwise similar conditions will
be present with highs mostly in the 80s and 90s.

Another upper trough will begin moving over the central part of the
country on Saturday. This will bring a cold front into the area on
Saturday as well as a chance of precipitation mainly across the
northern and eastern half of the CWA Friday night through Saturday
night. The precipitation will likely be out of the area by Sunday
but the surface high will move closer so high temperatures on Sunday
will be in the 60s and 70s.

A warm-up is expected on Monday as surface winds become west to
southwest and the previous upper trough lifts northeastward.
Temperatures on Tuesday will continue to warm up; otherwise, not
much change is expected. Another upper trough will move over the
Central Plains next Wednesday bringing a cold front into the area
but no precipitation at this time.

FIRE WEATHER...

An upper level trough is exiting the region today, however west
winds will remain strong enough to continue the critical fire
weather threat in far West Texas and southeast New Mexico into
tomorrow. Winds are diminishing this afternoon behind a quick
hitting cold front and will return from the southwest overnight.
Then a developing upper level low over the western states will
increase the wind speeds enough tomorrow to create critical fire
weather conditions for much of the area west of the Pecos River.
Windy conditions are expected to continue into the weekend but
cooler temperatures will increase humidities enough to alleviate the
fire danger threat and prevent the issuance of a Red Flag Warning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     54  92  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  91  62  88 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         59  93  64  95 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  58  94  65  93 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  80  57  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          49  88  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          47  86  51  86 /   0   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           55  92  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         55  91  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           53  94  64  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM MDT Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
     Thursday for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

27/49/27
000
FXUS64 KMAF 261930
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
230 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough centered over the central part of the
country. A cold front is pushing south into the area allowing for a
brief relief from the 90 degree temperatures. High temperatures
today are expected to be in the 70s and 80s across most of the area.
Despite this cool down, there is still fire weather concerns across
the southern CWA. See fire weather discussion below.

An extension of the previous upper trough will pass over the area on
Thursday allowing for higher winds aloft to mix down to the surface.
This will create possible high winds in the Guadalupe Mountains so a
High Wind Watch is in effect Thursday for this area. Surface winds
will become southwesterly to westerly with a surface trough in the
Texas panhandle. These winds will contribute to downslope warming
with high temperatures in the 80s and 90s across most of West Texas
and southeast New Mexico on Thursday. On Friday, winds will not be
quite as strong as on Thursday but otherwise similar conditions will
be present with highs mostly in the 80s and 90s.

Another upper trough will begin moving over the central part of the
country on Saturday. This will bring a cold front into the area on
Saturday as well as a chance of precipitation mainly across the
northern and eastern half of the CWA Friday night through Saturday
night. The precipitation will likely be out of the area by Sunday
but the surface high will move closer so high temperatures on Sunday
will be in the 60s and 70s.

A warm-up is expected on Monday as surface winds become west to
southwest and the previous upper trough lifts northeastward.
Temperatures on Tuesday will continue to warm up; otherwise, not
much change is expected. Another upper trough will move over the
Central Plains next Wednesday bringing a cold front into the area
but no precipitation at this time.

.FIRE WEATHER...

An upper level trough is exiting the region today, however west
winds will remain strong enough to continue the critical fire
weather threat in far West Texas and southeast New Mexico into
tomorrow. Winds are diminishing this afternoon behind a quick
hitting cold front and will return from the southwest overnight.
Then a developing upper level low over the western states will
increase the wind speeds enough tomorrow to create critical fire
weather conditions for much of the area west of the Pecos River.
Windy conditions are expected to continue into the weekend but
cooler temperatures will increase humidities enough to alleviate the
fire danger threat and prevent the issuance of a Red Flag Warning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     54  92  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  91  62  88 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         59  93  64  95 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  58  94  65  93 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  80  57  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          49  88  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          47  86  51  86 /   0   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           55  92  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         55  91  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           53  94  64  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM MDT Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Marfa Plateau-Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
     Thursday for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

10/80
107
FXUS64 KMAF 261719
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1219 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Gusty northwest winds will diminish within the next 2-3 hours,
then shift around from the southeast around 00Z. VFR conditions
will continue through the TAF period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...

After a very hot and windy day yesterday, today will be much cooler
with quite a bit less wind. A Pacific cold front has moved through
much of the region while another front is slowly edging south across
the Southern High Plains. A few showers have developed on radar,
but have not seen anything reach the ground due to the very dry
airmass at the surface. A more CP airmass will spill in across the
area today behind the second cold front. Strong winds this
morning will subside through the day becoming light and variable
this afternoon everywhere except the far southern CWA. Here fire
weather will be a concern. High temperatures will be about 15 to
20 degrees cooler today behind the front.

The upper trough responsible for the nicer day today will shift east
only to be replaced by another storm system to round out the week. A
strong jet stream embedded in NW mid level flow will develop across
the Rockies Thursday. This will translate to another windy, hot day
tomorrow into Friday. Will hoist another High Wind Watch for the
Guadalupe Mountains with other wind products likely to follow for
surrounding areas. Westerly, downslope flow will send temperatures
soaring back above normal Thursday afternoon. A high fire danger
is also expected in locations that have yet to green-up. Please
see the fire wx discussion below.

A weak cold front will make a run at the area Friday morning before
lifting north in response to a shortwave digging across the
Rockies. This wave will help deepen an upper trough over the Four
Corners. The position of the trough is not great for bringing
precipitation to our region, but a few showers and storms can`t be
ruled out, especially on Saturday. Temperatures cool quite a bit
Saturday, but a stronger front brings even colder air Saturday
night. Temperatures will fall sharply by Sunday morning with many
locations seeing lows in the 30`s and low 40`s. A freeze is even
possible across northern Lea County. Further north, portions of
the TX Panhandle could see accumulating snow!

The cooler conditions don`t last long as westerly mid level flow
returns early next week along with well above normal temperatures.

FIRE WEATHER...

WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico, and this feature should be east of the region
by 18Z this afternoon.  At the sfc, latest obs show very poor
recovery along the Rio Grande at 06Z, w/RH blo 15% for a good chunk
of BBNP.  Further north, a cold front is working its way south, and
will veer 20` winds to NW and become gusty later this morning. While
RFTI will be high only in the Guadalupes today, Fire Danger west of
the Pecos will be mostly very high to extreme, w/critical 20` winds
at the higher elevations.  Therefore, we`ll issue a RFW for the
Guadalupes south, then east thru the lwr Trans Pecos.  This should
not be a long event...mainly just afternoon hours until post-frontal
winds relax.

Thursday looks like a much more active fire wx day.  W/NW flow
aloft, and NW 20` winds backing to W and SW, recovery tonight will
be only poor-to-moderate at best, giving critical RH an early start
Thursday.  Increased 20` winds and a big rebound on temps will
result in critical RH all zones during the afternoon.  W/ERC at
normal across the Trans Pecos zone, and near-normal Southern Plains,
and RFTIs high-to extreme north of Candelaria-to-Big Lake, much of
the area is a candidate for a Fire Wx Watch.  However, w/areas east
of the Texas/NM border greened-up, these areas can be shaved off.

More critical fire wx will be possible as an upper trough approaches
the region over the weekend, but we`ll mention that in the HWO for
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  55  92  63 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       78  54  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         84  56  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  79  59  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 72  55  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          73  50  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          77  48  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           75  56  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         75  56  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           78  54  93  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains-
     Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Marfa Plateau-Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/10
280
FXUS64 KMAF 261043
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
543 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. A cold front moving
thru the region will veer winds to the NW today, brigning another
gusty afternoon. This front is fairly weak, and return flow
should resume after sunset as sfc flow veers.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...

After a very hot and windy day yesterday, today will be much cooler
with quite a bit less wind. A Pacific cold front has moved through
much of the region while another front is slowly edging south across
the Southern High Plains. A few showers have developed on radar,
but have not seen anything reach the ground due to the very dry
airmass at the surface. A more CP airmass will spill in across the
area today behind the second cold front. Strong winds this
morning will subside through the day becoming light and variable
this afternoon everywhere except the far southern CWA. Here fire
weather will be a concern. High temperatures will be about 15 to
20 degrees cooler today behind the front.

The upper trough responsible for the nicer day today will shift east
only to be replaced by another storm system to round out the week. A
strong jet stream embedded in NW mid level flow will develop across
the Rockies Thursday. This will translate to another windy, hot day
tomorrow into Friday. Will hoist another High Wind Watch for the
Guadalupe Mountains with other wind products likely to follow for
surrounding areas. Westerly, downslope flow will send temperatures
soaring back above normal Thursday afternoon. A high fire danger
is also expected in locations that have yet to green-up. Please
see the fire wx discussion below.

A weak cold front will make a run at the area Friday morning before
lifting north in response to a shortwave digging across the
Rockies. This wave will help deepen an upper trough over the Four
Corners. The position of the trough is not great for bringing
precipitation to our region, but a few showers and storms can`t be
ruled out, especially on Saturday. Temperatures cool quite a bit
Saturday, but a stronger front brings even colder air Saturday
night. Temperatures will fall sharply by Sunday morning with many
locations seeing lows in the 30`s and low 40`s. A freeze is even
possible across northern Lea County. Further north, portions of
the TX Panhandle could see accumulating snow!

The cooler conditions don`t last long as westerly mid level flow
returns early next week along with well above normal temperatures.

FIRE WEATHER...

WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico, and this feature should be east of the region
by 18Z this afternoon.  At the sfc, latest obs show very poor
recovery along the Rio Grande at 06Z, w/RH blo 15% for a good chunk
of BBNP.  Further north, a cold front is working its way south, and
will veer 20` winds to NW and become gusty later this morning. While
RFTI will be high only in the Guadalupes today, Fire Danger west of
the Pecos will be mostly very high to extreme, w/critical 20` winds
at the higher elevations.  Therefore, we`ll issue a RFW for the
Guadalupes south, then east thru the lwr Trans Pecos.  This should
not be a long event...mainly just afternoon hours until post-frontal
winds relax.

Thursday looks like a much more active fire wx day.  W/NW flow
aloft, and NW 20` winds backing to W and SW, recovery tonight will
be only poor-to-moderate at best, giving critical RH an early start
Thursday.  Increased 20` winds and a big rebound on temps will
result in critical RH all zones during the afternoon.  W/ERC at
normal across the Trans Pecos zone, and near-normal Southern Plains,
and RFTIs high-to extreme north of Candelaria-to-Big Lake, much of
the area is a candidate for a Fire Wx Watch.  However, w/areas east
of the Texas/NM border greened-up, these areas can be shaved off.

More critical fire wx will be possible as an upper trough approaches
the region over the weekend, but we`ll mention that in the HWO for
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  55  92  63 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       78  54  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         84  56  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  79  59  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 72  55  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          73  50  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          77  48  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           75  56  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         75  56  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           78  54  93  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains-
     Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Terrell-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/29/44
650
FXUS64 KMAF 260858
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
358 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

After a very hot and windy day yesterday, today will be much cooler
with quite a bit less wind. A Pacific cold front has moved through
much of the region while another front is slowly edging south across
the Southern High Plains. A few showers have developed on radar,
but have not seen anything reach the ground due to the very dry
airmass at the surface. A more CP airmass will spill in across the
area today behind the second cold front. Strong winds this
morning will subside through the day becoming light and variable
this afternoon everywhere except the far southern CWA. Here fire
weather will be a concern. High temperatures will be about 15 to
20 degrees cooler today behind the front.

The upper trough responsible for the nicer day today will shift east
only to be replaced by another storm system to round out the week. A
strong jet stream embedded in NW mid level flow will develop across
the Rockies Thursday. This will translate to another windy, hot day
tomorrow into Friday. Will hoist another High Wind Watch for the
Guadalupe Mountains with other wind products likely to follow for
surrounding areas. Westerly, downslope flow will send temperatures
soaring back above normal Thursday afternoon. A high fire danger
is also expected in locations that have yet to green-up. Please
see the fire wx discussion below.

A weak cold front will make a run at the area Friday morning before
lifting north in response to a shortwave digging across the
Rockies. This wave will help deepen an upper trough over the Four
Corners. The position of the trough is not great for bringing
precipitation to our region, but a few showers and storms can`t be
ruled out, especially on Saturday. Temperatures cool quite a bit
Saturday, but a stronger front brings even colder air Saturday
night. Temperatures will fall sharply by Sunday morning with many
locations seeing lows in the 30`s and low 40`s. A freeze is even
possible across northern Lea County. Further north, portions of
the TX Panhandle could see accumulating snow!

The cooler conditions don`t last long as westerly mid level flow
returns early next week along with well above normal temperatures.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico, and this feature should be east of the region
by 18Z this afternoon.  At the sfc, latest obs show very poor
recovery along the Rio Grande at 06Z, w/RH blo 15% for a good chunk
of BBNP.  Further north, a cold front is working its way south, and
will veer 20` winds to NW and become gusty later this morning. While
RFTI will be high only in the Guadalupes today, Fire Danger west of
the Pecos will be mostly very high to extreme, w/critical 20` winds
at the higher elevations.  Therefore, we`ll issue a RFW for the
Guadalupes south, then east thru the lwr Trans Pecos.  This should
not be a long event...mainly just afternoon hours until post-frontal
winds relax.

Thursday looks like a much more active fire wx day.  W/NW flow
aloft, and NW 20` winds backing to W and SW, recovery tonight will
be only poor-to-moderate at best, giving critical RH an early start
Thursday.  Increased 20` winds and a big rebound on temps will
result in critical RH all zones during the afternoon.  W/ERC at
normal across the Trans Pecos zone, and near-normal Southern Plains,
and RFTIs high-to extreme north of Candelaria-to-Big Lake, much of
the area is a candidate for a Fire Wx Watch.  However, w/areas east
of the Texas/NM border greened-up, these areas can be shaved off.

More critical fire wx will be possible as an upper trough approaches
the region over the weekend, but we`ll mention that in the HWO for
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  55  92  63 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       78  54  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         84  56  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  79  59  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 72  55  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          73  50  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          77  48  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           75  56  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         75  56  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           78  54  93  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains-
     Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Terrell-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/29
150
FXUS64 KMAF 260511
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1211 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. A cold front currently
moving thru the Texas Panhandle will reach the NE terminals around
14Z, and others shortly thereafter, brigning another gusty
afternoon. This front is fairly weak, and return flow should
resume after sunset as sfc flow veers.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1033 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Red Flag warning has expired.

FIRE WEATHER...
Update to remove the Red Flag highlights. More critical fire wx is
possible Wed across parts of the Trans Pecos and across most areas
on Thur.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 842 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

UPDATE...
Winds have diminished below High Wind Warning/Advisory this
evening for all but Guadalupe Mountains, where high winds will
continue much of tonight. Have cancelled all wind products except
for the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains. Surface
pressure gradient will increase across the region tonight which
may keep winds elevated overnight. Could even see a few locations
briefly hit Wind Advisory but think this will be fairly
isolated... The Red Flag Warning also remains in effect for
Southeast New Mexico and south through the Davis Mountains this
evening and will be allowed to expire at 03Z. Otherwise, the
remainder of the forecast looks to be on track.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
West winds are still sustained at 25-35kt, except FST is weaker,
and we expect there will be decrease especially after 01Z. Winds
at CNM may stay up a little longer though. Meanwhile a cold front
will turn winds to the W-NW after 06Z with winds increasing.
Around 15Z Wed winds will increase yet again as mixing commences,
not as strong as today though. INVOF GDP mtns light low flying
aircraft could experience severe turbulence.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the Rocky Mountains with the base of the
trough moving over southeast New Mexico and West Texas. At the
surface, the winds are strong and gusty out of the west. There are
currently High Wind Warnings in effect for the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains, Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, Eddy County plains, and
the Upper Trans Pecos into tonight. Wind Advisories are in effect
for Lea County, the western and northwestern Permian Basin, Marfa
Plateau, Presidio Valley, and Big Bend area through this evening.
The 850 to 700 NAM80 omega field is showing subsidence over these
areas by this evening. These strong west winds are also contributing
to fire weather conditions. See the fire weather discussion below.
Temperatures today are expected to be about 10 degrees above normal
with highs in the 90s across much of the area.

The upper trough will move over the central part of the country on
Wednesday. This will bring a cold front into the area on Wednesday
and will allow high temperatures to cool into the 70s across much of
the area. On Thursday, the base of another upper trough connected to
the previous upper trough will pass over the region. This will
contribute to another day of strong west winds across the area.
Temperatures will also warm back up to above normal across the area
on Thursday due to the west downslope winds. Another upper trough
behind the heels of the previous one will approach the region on
Friday. This upper trough will begin to move over the region on
Saturday which will bring a cold front and a chance of precipitation
into the area. Temperatures will cool to below normal on Saturday
across the northern half of the CWA. As the upper trough begins to
move away from the area on Sunday, the precipitation will come to an
end and the surface high will move closer to the CWA allowing high
temperatures on Sunday to be in the 60s and 70s across most of the
area. The upper pattern begins to diverge on Monday among the
models. In general, expect warming temperatures and dry conditions
for the extended forecast.

FIRE WEATHER...

Hot, dry and windy conditions will continue to affect locations
within the Red Flag Warning through this afternoon, with cooling
temperatures through 26/03Z likely allowing RH to increase enough to
alleviate critical conditions.  Despite critical fire weather
conditions over the Permian Basin this afternoon, greenup will
prevent the inclusion of these areas in the RFW.  Recovery tonight
will be poor in most locations as west to northwest winds persist
overnight and keep low temperatures above normal.  A cold front will
move south into the forecast area during the day Wednesday. However,
northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph, RHs of 10-15%, and high fire danger
could occur from the Marfa Plateau into the Big Bend region ahead of
the front, particularly in the 26/15Z to 26/21Z time frame.  Since
there are some timing differences with current progs, will forego
issuance of a Fire weather Watch for these areas at this time.

Cooler conditions will prevail areawide Wednesday afternoon, but
recovery Wednesday night will be poor along and west of a Lamesa to
Big Bend line.  Westerly flow aloft will strengthen again Thursday
which will promote temperatures warming well above normal and minimum
afternoon RHs of 5-10% areawide.  Since westerly 20 foot winds will
increase to at least 20-25 mph sustained along and north of
Interstate 10, critical fire weather conditions are looking likely.
On Friday, critical fire weather conditions could occur again, but
this will depend on whether another cold front dips south into the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  52  89  60 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       76  52  89  58 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         84  57  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  77  56  92  64 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  52  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          70  47  85  54 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          75  43  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           74  54  90  60 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         74  54  88  61 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           76  51  93  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

44/29/44
919
FXUS64 KMAF 260333 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1033 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Red Flag warning has expired.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Update to remove the Red Flag highlights. More critical fire wx is
possible Wed across parts of the Trans Pecos and across most areas
on Thur.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 842 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

UPDATE...
Winds have diminished below High Wind Warning/Advisory this
evening for all but Guadalupe Mountains, where high winds will
continue much of tonight. Have cancelled all wind products except
for the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains. Surface
pressure gradient will increase across the region tonight which
may keep winds elevated overnight. Could even see a few locations
briefly hit Wind Advisory but think this will be fairly
isolated... The Red Flag Warning also remains in effect for
Southeast New Mexico and south through the Davis Mountains this
evening and will be allowed to expire at 03Z. Otherwise, the
remainder of the forecast looks to be on track.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
West winds are still sustained at 25-35kt, except FST is weaker,
and we expect there will be decrease especially after 01Z. Winds
at CNM may stay up a little longer though. Meanwhile a cold front
will turn winds to the W-NW after 06Z with winds increasing.
Around 15Z Wed winds will increase yet again as mixing commences,
not as strong as today though. INVOF GDP mtns light low flying
aircraft could experience severe turbulence.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the Rocky Mountains with the base of the
trough moving over southeast New Mexico and West Texas. At the
surface, the winds are strong and gusty out of the west. There are
currently High Wind Warnings in effect for the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains, Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, Eddy County plains, and
the Upper Trans Pecos into tonight. Wind Advisories are in effect
for Lea County, the western and northwestern Permian Basin, Marfa
Plateau, Presidio Valley, and Big Bend area through this evening.
The 850 to 700 NAM80 omega field is showing subsidence over these
areas by this evening. These strong west winds are also contributing
to fire weather conditions. See the fire weather discussion below.
Temperatures today are expected to be about 10 degrees above normal
with highs in the 90s across much of the area.

The upper trough will move over the central part of the country on
Wednesday. This will bring a cold front into the area on Wednesday
and will allow high temperatures to cool into the 70s across much of
the area. On Thursday, the base of another upper trough connected to
the previous upper trough will pass over the region. This will
contribute to another day of strong west winds across the area.
Temperatures will also warm back up to above normal across the area
on Thursday due to the west downslope winds. Another upper trough
behind the heels of the previous one will approach the region on
Friday. This upper trough will begin to move over the region on
Saturday which will bring a cold front and a chance of precipitation
into the area. Temperatures will cool to below normal on Saturday
across the northern half of the CWA. As the upper trough begins to
move away from the area on Sunday, the precipitation will come to an
end and the surface high will move closer to the CWA allowing high
temperatures on Sunday to be in the 60s and 70s across most of the
area. The upper pattern begins to diverge on Monday among the
models. In general, expect warming temperatures and dry conditions
for the extended forecast.

FIRE WEATHER...

Hot, dry and windy conditions will continue to affect locations
within the Red Flag Warning through this afternoon, with cooling
temperatures through 26/03Z likely allowing RH to increase enough to
alleviate critical conditions.  Despite critical fire weather
conditions over the Permian Basin this afternoon, greenup will
prevent the inclusion of these areas in the RFW.  Recovery tonight
will be poor in most locations as west to northwest winds persist
overnight and keep low temperatures above normal.  A cold front will
move south into the forecast area during the day Wednesday. However,
northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph, RHs of 10-15%, and high fire danger
could occur from the Marfa Plateau into the Big Bend region ahead of
the front, particularly in the 26/15Z to 26/21Z time frame.  Since
there are some timing differences with current progs, will forego
issuance of a Fire weather Watch for these areas at this time.

Cooler conditions will prevail areawide Wednesday afternoon, but
recovery Wednesday night will be poor along and west of a Lamesa to
Big Bend line.  Westerly flow aloft will strengthen again Thursday
which will promote temperatures warming well above normal and minimum
afternoon RHs of 5-10% areawide.  Since westerly 20 foot winds will
increase to at least 20-25 mph sustained along and north of
Interstate 10, critical fire weather conditions are looking likely.
On Friday, critical fire weather conditions could occur again, but
this will depend on whether another cold front dips south into the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  70  52  89 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       54  76  52  89 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         67  84  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  61  77  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  71  52  83 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          51  70  47  85 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          52  75  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           58  74  54  90 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         57  74  54  88 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           56  76  51  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
604
FXUS64 KMAF 260142
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
842 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Winds have diminished below High Wind Warning/Advisory this
evening for all but Guadalupe Mountains, where high winds will
continue much of tonight. Have cancelled all wind products except
for the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains. Surface
pressure gradient will increase across the region tonight which
may keep winds elevated overnight. Could even see a few locations
briefly hit Wind Advisory but think this will be fairly
isolated... The Red Flag Warning also remains in effect for
Southeast New Mexico and south through the Davis Mountains this
evening and will be allowed to expire at 03Z. Otherwise, the
remainder of the forecast looks to be on track.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
West winds are still sustained at 25-35kt, except FST is weaker,
and we expect there will be decrease especially after 01Z. Winds
at CNM may stay up a little longer though. Meanwhile a cold front
will turn winds to the W-NW after 06Z with winds increasing.
Around 15Z Wed winds will increase yet again as mixing commences,
not as strong as today though. INVOF GDP mtns light low flying
aircraft could experience severe turbulence.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the Rocky Mountains with the base of the
trough moving over southeast New Mexico and West Texas. At the
surface, the winds are strong and gusty out of the west. There are
currently High Wind Warnings in effect for the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains, Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, Eddy County plains, and
the Upper Trans Pecos into tonight. Wind Advisories are in effect
for Lea County, the western and northwestern Permian Basin, Marfa
Plateau, Presidio Valley, and Big Bend area through this evening.
The 850 to 700 NAM80 omega field is showing subsidence over these
areas by this evening. These strong west winds are also contributing
to fire weather conditions. See the fire weather discussion below.
Temperatures today are expected to be about 10 degrees above normal
with highs in the 90s across much of the area.

The upper trough will move over the central part of the country on
Wednesday. This will bring a cold front into the area on Wednesday
and will allow high temperatures to cool into the 70s across much of
the area. On Thursday, the base of another upper trough connected to
the previous upper trough will pass over the region. This will
contribute to another day of strong west winds across the area.
Temperatures will also warm back up to above normal across the area
on Thursday due to the west downslope winds. Another upper trough
behind the heels of the previous one will approach the region on
Friday. This upper trough will begin to move over the region on
Saturday which will bring a cold front and a chance of precipitation
into the area. Temperatures will cool to below normal on Saturday
across the northern half of the CWA. As the upper trough begins to
move away from the area on Sunday, the precipitation will come to an
end and the surface high will move closer to the CWA allowing high
temperatures on Sunday to be in the 60s and 70s across most of the
area. The upper pattern begins to diverge on Monday among the
models. In general, expect warming temperatures and dry conditions
for the extended forecast.

FIRE WEATHER...

Hot, dry and windy conditions will continue to affect locations
within the Red Flag Warning through this afternoon, with cooling
temperatures through 26/03Z likely allowing RH to increase enough to
alleviate critical conditions.  Despite critical fire weather
conditions over the Permian Basin this afternoon, greenup will
prevent the inclusion of these areas in the RFW.  Recovery tonight
will be poor in most locations as west to northwest winds persist
overnight and keep low temperatures above normal.  A cold front will
move south into the forecast area during the day Wednesday. However,
northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph, RHs of 10-15%, and high fire danger
could occur from the Marfa Plateau into the Big Bend region ahead of
the front, particularly in the 26/15Z to 26/21Z time frame.  Since
there are some timing differences with current progs, will forego
issuance of a Fire weather Watch for these areas at this time.

Cooler conditions will prevail areawide Wednesday afternoon, but
recovery Wednesday night will be poor along and west of a Lamesa to
Big Bend line.  Westerly flow aloft will strengthen again Thursday
which will promote temperatures warming well above normal and minimum
afternoon RHs of 5-10% areawide.  Since westerly 20 foot winds will
increase to at least 20-25 mph sustained along and north of
Interstate 10, critical fire weather conditions are looking likely.
On Friday, critical fire weather conditions could occur again, but
this will depend on whether another cold front dips south into the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  70  52  89 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       54  76  52  89 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         67  84  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  61  77  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  71  52  83 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          51  70  47  85 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          52  75  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           58  74  54  90 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         57  74  54  88 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           56  76  51  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

49/27
340
FXUS64 KMAF 252316
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
West winds are still sustained at 25-35kt, except FST is weaker,
and we expect there will be decrease especially after 01Z. Winds
at CNM may stay up a little longer though. Meanwhile a cold front
will turn winds to the W-NW after 06Z with winds increasing.
Around 15Z Wed winds will increase yet again as mixing commences,
not as strong as today though. INVOF GDP mtns light low flying
aircraft could experience severe turbulence.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the Rocky Mountains with the base of the
trough moving over southeast New Mexico and West Texas. At the
surface, the winds are strong and gusty out of the west. There are
currently High Wind Warnings in effect for the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains, Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, Eddy County plains, and
the Upper Trans Pecos into tonight. Wind Advisories are in effect
for Lea County, the western and northwestern Permian Basin, Marfa
Plateau, Presidio Valley, and Big Bend area through this evening.
The 850 to 700 NAM80 omega field is showing subsidence over these
areas by this evening. These strong west winds are also contributing
to fire weather conditions. See the fire weather discussion below.
Temperatures today are expected to be about 10 degrees above normal
with highs in the 90s across much of the area.

The upper trough will move over the central part of the country on
Wednesday. This will bring a cold front into the area on Wednesday
and will allow high temperatures to cool into the 70s across much of
the area. On Thursday, the base of another upper trough connected to
the previous upper trough will pass over the region. This will
contribute to another day of strong west winds across the area.
Temperatures will also warm back up to above normal across the area
on Thursday due to the west downslope winds. Another upper trough
behind the heels of the previous one will approach the region on
Friday. This upper trough will begin to move over the region on
Saturday which will bring a cold front and a chance of precipitation
into the area. Temperatures will cool to below normal on Saturday
across the northern half of the CWA. As the upper trough begins to
move away from the area on Sunday, the precipitation will come to an
end and the surface high will move closer to the CWA allowing high
temperatures on Sunday to be in the 60s and 70s across most of the
area. The upper pattern begins to diverge on Monday among the
models. In general, expect warming temperatures and dry conditions
for the extended forecast.

FIRE WEATHER...

Hot, dry and windy conditions will continue to affect locations
within the Red Flag Warning through this afternoon, with cooling
temperatures through 26/03Z likely allowing RH to increase enough to
alleviate critical conditions.  Despite critical fire weather
conditions over the Permian Basin this afternoon, greenup will
prevent the inclusion of these areas in the RFW.  Recovery tonight
will be poor in most locations as west to northwest winds persist
overnight and keep low temperatures above normal.  A cold front will
move south into the forecast area during the day Wednesday. However,
northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph, RHs of 10-15%, and high fire danger
could occur from the Marfa Plateau into the Big Bend region ahead of
the front, particularly in the 26/15Z to 26/21Z time frame.  Since
there are some timing differences with current progs, will forego
issuance of a Fire weather Watch for these areas at this time.

Cooler conditions will prevail areawide Wednesday afternoon, but
recovery Wednesday night will be poor along and west of a Lamesa to
Big Bend line.  Westerly flow aloft will strengthen again Thursday
which will promote temperatures warming well above normal and minimum
afternoon RHs of 5-10% areawide.  Since westerly 20 foot winds will
increase to at least 20-25 mph sustained along and north of
Interstate 10, critical fire weather conditions are looking likely.
On Friday, critical fire weather conditions could occur again, but
this will depend on whether another cold front dips south into the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  70  52  89 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       54  76  52  89 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         67  84  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  61  77  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  71  52  83 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          51  70  47  85 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          52  75  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           58  74  54  90 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         57  74  54  88 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           56  76  51  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Central Lea County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Presidio Valley-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Wednesday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$
937
FXUS64 KMAF 251907
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
207 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the Rocky Mountains with the base of the
trough moving over southeast New Mexico and West Texas. At the
surface, the winds are strong and gusty out of the west. There are
currently High Wind Warnings in effect for the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains, Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, Eddy County plains, and
the Upper Trans Pecos into tonight. Wind Advisories are in effect
for Lea County, the western and northwestern Permian Basin, Marfa
Plateau, Presidio Valley, and Big Bend area through this evening.
The 850 to 700 NAM80 omega field is showing subsidence over these
areas by this evening. These strong west winds are also contributing
to fire weather conditions. See the fire weather discussion below.
Temperatures today are expected to be about 10 degrees above normal
with highs in the 90s across much of the area.

The upper trough will move over the central part of the country on
Wednesday. This will bring a cold front into the area on Wednesday
and will allow high temperatures to cool into the 70s across much of
the area. On Thursday, the base of another upper trough connected to
the previous upper trough will pass over the region. This will
contribute to another day of strong west winds across the area.
Temperatures will also warm back up to above normal across the area
on Thursday due to the west downslope winds. Another upper trough
behind the heels of the previous one will approach the region on
Friday. This upper trough will begin to move over the region on
Saturday which will bring a cold front and a chance of precipitation
into the area. Temperatures will cool to below normal on Saturday
across the northern half of the CWA. As the upper trough begins to
move away from the area on Sunday, the precipitation will come to an
end and the surface high will move closer to the CWA allowing high
temperatures on Sunday to be in the 60s and 70s across most of the
area. The upper pattern begins to diverge on Monday among the
models. In general, expect warming temperatures and dry conditions
for the extended forecast.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot, dry and windy conditions will continue to affect locations
within the Red Flag Warning through this afternoon, with cooling
temperatures through 26/03Z likely allowing RH to increase enough to
alleviate critical conditions.  Despite critical fire weather
conditions over the Permian Basin this afternoon, greenup will
prevent the inclusion of these areas in the RFW.  Recovery tonight
will be poor in most locations as west to northwest winds persist
overnight and keep low temperatures above normal.  A cold front will
move south into the forecast area during the day Wednesday. However,
northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph, RHs of 10-15%, and high fire danger
could occur from the Marfa Plateau into the Big Bend region ahead of
the front, particularly in the 26/15Z to 26/21Z time frame.  Since
there are some timing differences with current progs, will forego
issuance of a Fire weather Watch for these areas at this time.

Cooler conditions will prevail areawide Wednesday afternoon, but
recovery Wednesday night will be poor along and west of a Lamesa to
Big Bend line.  Westerly flow aloft will strengthen again Thursday
which will promote temperatures warming well above normal and minimum
afternoon RHs of 5-10% areawide.  Since westerly 20 foot winds will
increase to at least 20-25 mph sustained along and north of
Interstate 10, critical fire weather conditions are looking likely.
On Friday, critical fire weather conditions could occur again, but
this will depend on whether another cold front dips south into the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  70  52  89 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       54  76  52  89 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         67  84  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  61  77  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  71  52  83 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          51  70  47  85 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          52  75  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           58  74  54  90 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         57  74  54  88 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           56  76  51  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Central Lea County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Presidio Valley-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Wednesday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

67/80
808
FXUS64 KMAF 251743
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1243 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.UPDATE...

Update to expand the Wind Advisory farther east, and raise high
temperatures a couple of degrees.  The latest Aviation Discussion
is included below also.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Despite high clouds streaming over the region, westerly winds have
increased early this afternoon over the High Wind Warning and Wind
Advisory areas.  Think we will see wind speeds increase further
though as more heating occurs and mixes a deeper layer of the
atmosphere, and more subsidence occurs from west to east through
late this afternoon.  Will expand the Wind Advisory into the central
Permian Basin to include locations along and west of a Lamesa to
Midland to Monahans line since it appears speeds will rise to 30 mph
sustained, with gusts of 45-50 mph possible too.  The westerly
downslope flow is warming temperatures near forecast highs for this
afternoon, so will raise high temperatures over the Permian basin,
south through the Lower Trans Pecos.  It does not appear we will
threaten any record high temperatures as those are solidly in the
100s for April 25th. An update will follow shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...

Aside from the potential for reduced visibility in blowing dust at
KCNM, VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and tonight at all
area terminals.  West winds of 20-35kt sustained, and gusts of 35-
50kt will occur this afternoon, but diminish this evening and become
northwesterly ahead of a cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  59  72  53 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       91  53  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         98  66  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  95  60  77  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 81  48  71  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          84  50  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          88  52  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           93  58  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         93  57  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           92  56  76  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Central Lea County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Gaines-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Wednesday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Dawson-Ector-
     Martin-Midland-Ward.

&&

$$
124
FXUS64 KMAF 251103
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
603 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
Very windy conditions expected to commence later this morning and
last through the afternoon. Winds could gust over 40 kts at
times, especially at the western terminals. A cold front will turn
winds to the northwest after sunset and expect it to remain gusty.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 502 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Little changes to the current forecast, and another day of wind and
fire visit West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  WV imagery shows an
upper trough over WY, w/a secondary trough over SE OR that is
forecast to phase w/the first and move thru the Texas Panhandle by
12Z Wed.  This will result in increasing westerlies across much of
the area today and tonight.  The NAM develops a fairly strong mtn
wave signature over the Guadalupes thru around 03Z Wed, and H7
height gradients tighten up to 70m/200nm.  Forecast NAM soundings
show mixing over the Guadalupes to 650mb, where 50kt westerlies are
forecast, whereas the GFS mixes to 625mb w/55kt westerlies.  As
usual, the wild card will be sky cover, as models take a 300-500mb
slug of moisture over the area today.  However, confidence is high
enough to issue high wind warnings for areas that were in a watch
yesterday, as well as advisories further east out onto the plains.
W/temps well-above normal, RH will be in the teens or lower,
increasing the fire wx threat for much of the area.  See Fire Wx
Discussion below for more detail.

Unfortunately, a cold front will accompany the upper trough, and
move thru Wednesday, w/fropa at KMAF around 14Z.  This will take
temps Wed afternoon down to a couple of cats below normal.  However,
westerly sfc flow resumes Thursday under a broad trough covering
most of the CONUS, and downslope warming should allow for a rebound
to above-normal temps.  This could be another windy day out west,
but we`ll forego a watch attm to keep things simple, and just
mention it in the HWO.

As the weekend approaches, a tertiary trough will approach, and move
thru the region by 00Z Sun.  This suggests more winds beyond Thu,
and will result in a chance of convection beginning Friday night and
lasting thru Saturday night. Temps will drop below normal Sat/Sun,
and rebound to above-normal Mon/Tue.

FIRE WEATHER...

Very hot, dry, and windy conditions will lead to extreme fire danger
and critical fire weather conditions across much of the area today.
Green-up from the Permian Basin south to the Big Bend will temper
the threat there, but areas to the west still have mostly cured
vegetation. Locations from the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains into SE
NM also will have the strongest winds so have upgraded to a Red Flag
Warning here. RH`s will drop mostly into the single digits this
afternoon while winds increase from the west at 25 to 35 mph with
gusts over 40 mph.

A cold front will bring some relief Wednesday, but critical fire
weather conditions are still possible across the Davis Mountains and
Marfa Plateau. Widespread critical fire conditions look to return
Thursday and Friday ahead of yet another strong storm system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  59  72  53 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       88  53  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         95  66  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  95  60  77  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 80  48  71  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          85  50  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          88  52  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           91  58  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         91  57  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           92  56  76  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Central Lea County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10 PM
     CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Gaines-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Wednesday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

29
521
FXUS64 KMAF 251002
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
502 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Little changes to the current forecast, and another day of wind and
fire visit West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  WV imagery shows an
upper trough over WY, w/a secondary trough over SE OR that is
forecast to phase w/the first and move thru the Texas Panhandle by
12Z Wed.  This will result in increasing westerlies across much of
the area today and tonight.  The NAM develops a fairly strong mtn
wave signature over the Guadalupes thru around 03Z Wed, and H7
height gradients tighten up to 70m/200nm.  Forecast NAM soundings
show mixing over the Guadalupes to 650mb, where 50kt westerlies are
forecast, whereas the GFS mixes to 625mb w/55kt westerlies.  As
usual, the wild card will be sky cover, as models take a 300-500mb
slug of moisture over the area today.  However, confidence is high
enough to issue high wind warnings for areas that were in a watch
yesterday, as well as advisories further east out onto the plains.
W/temps well-above normal, RH will be in the teens or lower,
increasing the fire wx threat for much of the area.  See Fire Wx
Discussion below for more detail.

Unfortunately, a cold front will accompany the upper trough, and
move thru Wednesday, w/fropa at KMAF around 14Z.  This will take
temps Wed afternoon down to a couple of cats below normal.  However,
westerly sfc flow resumes Thursday under a broad trough covering
most of the CONUS, and downslope warming should allow for a rebound
to above-normal temps.  This could be another windy day out west,
but we`ll forego a watch attm to keep things simple, and just
mention it in the HWO.

As the weekend approaches, a tertiary trough will approach, and move
thru the region by 00Z Sun.  This suggests more winds beyond Thu,
and will result in a chance of convection beginning Friday night and
lasting thru Saturday night. Temps will drop below normal Sat/Sun,
and rebound to above-normal Mon/Tue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Very hot, dry, and windy conditions will lead to extreme fire danger
and critical fire weather conditions across much of the area today.
Green-up from the Permian Basin south to the Big Bend will temper
the threat there, but areas to the west still have mostly cured
vegetation. Locations from the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains into SE
NM also will have the strongest winds so have upgraded to a Red Flag
Warning here. RH`s will drop mostly into the single digits this
afternoon while winds increase from the west at 25 to 35 mph with
gusts over 40 mph.

A cold front will bring some relief Wednesday, but critical fire
weather conditions are still possible across the Davis Mountains and
Marfa Plateau. Widespread critical fire conditions look to return
Thursday and Friday ahead of yet another strong storm system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  59  72  53 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       88  53  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         95  66  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  95  60  77  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 80  48  71  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          85  50  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          88  52  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           91  58  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         91  57  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           92  56  76  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Central Lea County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10 PM
     CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Gaines-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Wednesday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

29/44
898
FXUS64 KMAF 250501
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1201 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will continue into Tuesday with westerly winds
becoming very gusty by afternoon. Expect most terminals to gust
near or over 40 kts. Winds will diminish during the evening ahead
of a cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  61  75  52 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       91  57  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         97  67  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  95  63  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 80  52  72  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          88  53  72  48 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          89  54  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           94  60  75  53 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         94  60  76  54 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                           95  60  78  53 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from 9 AM MDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening
     for Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning through
     this evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/29
012
FXUS64 KMAF 242353
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
653 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with increasing high clouds from the west. Gusty W to SW wind
may drop a little after sunset but come back stronger tomorrow out
of the W.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 204 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The upper pattern will be conducive for windy and hot conditions
this week, with a couple of cold fronts in between to provide brief
temperature relief.  Rain chances will be minimal, with perhaps the
best shot coming Saturday and Saturday night as a secondary upper
trough is progged to be a bit deeper than the initial one Tuesday
night/Wednesday.

A High Wind Warning will remain in effect in the Guadalupe Mountains
from this afternoon until Tuesday evening, with the strongest winds
expected Tuesday afternoon as the base of a shortwave trough begins
to move over the region.  High clouds will spread eastward ahead of
the upper trough, but do not think they will be thick enough to
curtail deep mixing of 30-50kt westerly winds to the surface.  These
stronger winds will spread southward to the Davis Mountains, which
may need to be added to the High Wind Warning for locations above
6000 feet Tuesday afternoon.  For now, will issue a High Wind Watch
for the Davis Mountains, Eddy County in southeastern New Mexico, and
the Van Horn/Highway 54 corridor where most progs are indicating the
best mid level winds available to mix down, and where subsidence
will be the strongest Tuesday afternoon.  Westerly surface winds of
30-35 mph sustained, and gusts to 50-55 mph, could affect the rest
of the southeastern New Mexico Plains, Marfa Plateau, Upper Trans
Pecos and Permian Basin Tuesday afternoon.  Will mention the
potential for these Advisory level winds in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook, but allow later shifts to hone in on which areas will be in
a High Wind Warning, and which will be in a Wind Advisory.

A cold front will drop south into the forecast area Wednesday with
more Advisory level winds possible ahead of the front over the
Stockton Plateau, Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos.  Cooler
temperatures Wednesday will be brief since westerly flow aloft will
prevail again Thursday as the next ua trough begins to deepen over
the western CONUS.  A low level thermal ridge will rapidly expand
over the region Thursday afternoon, with more wind and fire weather
concerns both Thursday and Friday, especially over the SE NM Plains
and Guadalupe Mountains.  Saturday may not be too different, but by
Saturday night the combination of a deeper ua trough, and rapidly
increasing low level moisture, may provide the only decent shot of
rain for the next 7 days.  Cooler temperatures will follow Sunday,
but the progressive upper pattern promises a quick warmup next
Monday/Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will be about 10 degrees above normal this afternoon
with relative humidity of 15 percent or less along and west of a
line around Midland to Fort Stockton to Alpine. Winds will be 20 mph
or greater across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe Mountains, Van
Horn area, and the Upper Trans Pecos. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect this afternoon and early evening for the southeast New Mexico
plains, Guadalupe Mountains, and Van Horn area. Other places
surrounding this area may experience fire weather criteria but green-
up is sufficient to not issue any warnings at this time.

Fire weather conditions will be even stronger on Tuesday with low
relative humidities spreading across the whole area and winds of at
least 20 mph affecting all but the Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend, and
Presidio Valley areas. There is a Fire Weather Watch in effect for
the southeast New Mexico plains, Guadalupe Mountains, and Van Horn
area for Tuesday. The Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau may also
need to be included depending on green-up in these areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  94  61  75 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       64  91  57  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         62  97  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  64  95  63  80 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 59  80  52  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          62  88  53  72 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          50  89  54  76 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           64  94  60  75 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         64  94  60  76 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           63  95  60  78 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$
386
FXUS64 KMAF 241904
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
204 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The upper pattern will be conducive for windy and hot conditions
this week, with a couple of cold fronts in between to provide brief
temperature relief.  Rain chances will be minimal, with perhaps the
best shot coming Saturday and Saturday night as a secondary upper
trough is progged to be a bit deeper than the initial one Tuesday
night/Wednesday.

A High Wind Warning will remain in effect in the Guadalupe Mountains
from this afternoon until Tuesday evening, with the strongest winds
expected Tuesday afternoon as the base of a shortwave trough begins
to move over the region.  High clouds will spread eastward ahead of
the upper trough, but do not think they will be thick enough to
curtail deep mixing of 30-50kt westerly winds to the surface.  These
stronger winds will spread southward to the Davis Mountains, which
may need to be added to the High Wind Warning for locations above
6000 feet Tuesday afternoon.  For now, will issue a High Wind Watch
for the Davis Mountains, Eddy County in southeastern New Mexico, and
the Van Horn/Highway 54 corridor where most progs are indicating the
best mid level winds available to mix down, and where subsidence
will be the strongest Tuesday afternoon.  Westerly surface winds of
30-35 mph sustained, and gusts to 50-55 mph, could affect the rest
of the southeastern New Mexico Plains, Marfa Plateau, Upper Trans
Pecos and Permian Basin Tuesday afternoon.  Will mention the
potential for these Advisory level winds in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook, but allow later shifts to hone in on which areas will be in
a High Wind Warning, and which will be in a Wind Advisory.

A cold front will drop south into the forecast area Wednesday with
more Advisory level winds possible ahead of the front over the
Stockton Plateau, Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos.  Cooler
temperatures Wednesday will be brief since westerly flow aloft will
prevail again Thursday as the next ua trough begins to deepen over
the western CONUS.  A low level thermal ridge will rapidly expand
over the region Thursday afternoon, with more wind and fire weather
concerns both Thursday and Friday, especially over the SE NM Plains
and Guadalupe Mountains.  Saturday may not be too different, but by
Saturday night the combination of a deeper ua trough, and rapidly
increasing low level moisture, may provide the only decent shot of
rain for the next 7 days.  Cooler temperatures will follow Sunday,
but the progressive upper pattern promises a quick warmup next
Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will be about 10 degrees above normal this afternoon
with relative humidity of 15 percent or less along and west of a
line around Midland to Fort Stockton to Alpine. Winds will be 20 mph
or greater across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe Mountains, Van
Horn area, and the Upper Trans Pecos. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect this afternoon and early evening for the southeast New Mexico
plains, Guadalupe Mountains, and Van Horn area. Other places
surrounding this area may experience fire weather criteria but green-
up is sufficient to not issue any warnings at this time.

Fire weather conditions will be even stronger on Tuesday with low
relative humidities spreading across the whole area and winds of at
least 20 mph affecting all but the Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend, and
Presidio Valley areas. There is a Fire Weather Watch in effect for
the southeast New Mexico plains, Guadalupe Mountains, and Van Horn
area for Tuesday. The Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau may also
need to be included depending on green-up in these areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  94  61  75 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       64  91  57  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         62  97  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  64  95  63  80 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 59  80  52  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          62  88  53  72 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          50  89  54  76 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           64  94  60  75 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         64  94  60  76 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           63  95  60  78 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

80/99
050
FXUS64 KMAF 241718
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1218 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
become elevated and gusty out of the southwest to west this
afternoon. Winds will decrease a little this evening and briefly become
more southerly early in the evening before switching back to the
west southwest. Winds will pick up in intensity out of the west
around 15z Tuesday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The 85h thermal ridge will bogart its way into the area today and
the core 27-29C 85h temps ensure that high temps will easily climb
into the M90s across SE NM/Upper Trans Pecos. A average mixed layer
(65h deep) wind of 30kts foretells a windy day across the same areas
including the GDP Mtns. By late today the a mtn wave will set up
across the GDP Mtns with the classic upshear tilted OMEGA couplet.
As such will opt issue a high wind warning from 20Z/24-03Z/26,
windiest conditions to occur on Tue. Thermal ridge will be farther
e on Tue. This will result in cooler temps across SE NM, but
warmer across the PB and Big Bend/Rio Grande. Wind/very windy
conditions are expected areawide Tue when an 85h speed max of
30-35kts extends e from Upper Trans Pecos/SE NM into all of the
PB. The average mixed layer wind will be near 35kts and advisory
level winds are likely in the corridor described above. As the
upper low passes to the n Wed AM an assocd cold front will move
thru bringing some relief from WRT temps, probably still windy
though. Warm/dry sector is eager to return and sets up Thur/Fri.
Fri will be again be especially warm, there will be wind too
along periods of high clouds on Tue and Fri. Similarly to Wed we
expect a cold front will follow Sat thus cooler next weekend. As
upper low passes by Sat a few high based -SHRA/-TSRA will be
possible in assocn with cold mid level temps on Sat.

FIRE WEATHER...
Today fire wx concerns are focused in the GDP Mtns/SE NM/Van Horn
area where there will be a prominent low level thermal ridge with
85h winds (~5kft) of 25-30kts and where RFTI of 4-6 is forecast.
Roadside green-up does reduce roadside start potential, but IA
potential certainly increases today. Critical fire wx will expand
Tue into most of the PB and farther s into the Trans Pecos. Green-up
across the PB does mitigate fire wx concerns and precludes the
issuance of a watch for these areas. In the Trans Pecos there has
been some green-up, but not sure how strong it is? For now will
issue a Red Flag today for GDP Mtns/SE NM/Van Horn area and a
watch for same areas on Tue. Basically for Tue strongest fire wx
will occur in area that has the best green-up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  62  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       95  62  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         87  60  96  67 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  93  62  94  63 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 83  57  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          91  60  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          87  49  88  54 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           91  62  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         91  62  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           94  61  94  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/
016
FXUS64 KMAF 241108
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
608 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. South to
southeast winds this morning will veer to the southwest by 18Z and
gust to 20-30kt, except for CNM where gusts up to 35kt are
possible. Gusty winds are expected to continue thereafter.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The 85h thermal ridge will bogart its way into the area today and
the core 27-29C 85h temps ensure that high temps will easily climb
into the M90s across SE NM/Upper Trans Pecos. A average mixed layer
(65h deep) wind of 30kts foretells a windy day across the same areas
including the GDP Mtns. By late today the a mtn wave will set up
across the GDP Mtns with the classic upshear tilted OMEGA couplet.
As such will opt issue a high wind warning from 20Z/24-03Z/26,
windiest conditions to occur on Tue. Thermal ridge will be farther
e on Tue. This will result in cooler temps across SE NM, but
warmer across the PB and Big Bend/Rio Grande. Wind/very windy
conditions are expected areawide Tue when an 85h speed max of
30-35kts extends e from Upper Trans Pecos/SE NM into all of the
PB. The average mixed layer wind will be near 35kts and advisory
level winds are likely in the corridor described above. As the
upper low passes to the n Wed AM an assocd cold front will move
thru bringing some relief from WRT temps, probably still windy
though. Warm/dry sector is eager to return and sets up Thur/Fri.
Fri will be again be especially warm, there will be wind too
along periods of high clouds on Tue and Fri. Similarly to Wed we
expect a cold front will follow Sat thus cooler next weekend. As
upper low passes by Sat a few high based -SHRA/-TSRA will be
possible in assocn with cold mid level temps on Sat.

FIRE WEATHER...
Today fire wx concerns are focused in the GDP Mtns/SE NM/Van Horn
area where there will be a prominent low level thermal ridge with
85h winds (~5kft) of 25-30kts and where RFTI of 4-6 is forecast.
Roadside green-up does reduce roadside start potential, but IA
potential certainly increases today. Critical fire wx will expand
Tue into most of the PB and farther s into the Trans Pecos. Green-up
across the PB does mitigate fire wx concerns and precludes the
issuance of a watch for these areas. In the Trans Pecos there has
been some green-up, but not sure how strong it is? For now will
issue a Red Flag today for GDP Mtns/SE NM/Van Horn area and a
watch for same areas on Tue. Basically for Tue strongest fire wx
will occur in area that has the best green-up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  62  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       95  62  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         87  60  96  67 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  93  62  94  63 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 83  57  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          91  60  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          87  49  88  54 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           91  62  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         91  62  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           94  61  94  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$
149
FXUS64 KMAF 240748
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
248 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The 85h thermal ridge will bogart its way into the area today and
the core 27-29C 85h temps ensure that high temps will easily climb
into the M90s across SE NM/Upper Trans Pecos. A average mixed layer
(65h deep) wind of 30kts foretells a windy day across the same areas
including the GDP Mtns. By late today the a mtn wave will set up
across the GDP Mtns with the classic upshear tilted OMEGA couplet.
As such will opt issue a high wind warning from 20Z/24-03Z/26,
windiest conditions to occur on Tue. Thermal ridge will be farther
e on Tue. This will result in cooler temps across SE NM, but
warmer across the PB and Big Bend/Rio Grande. Wind/very windy
conditions are expected areawide Tue when an 85h speed max of
30-35kts extends e from Upper Trans Pecos/SE NM into all of the
PB. The average mixed layer wind will be near 35kts and advisory
level winds are likely in the corridor described above. As the
upper low passes to the n Wed AM an assocd cold front will move
thru bringing some relief from WRT temps, probably still windy
though. Warm/dry sector is eager to return and sets up Thur/Fri.
Fri will be again be especially warm, there will be wind too
along periods of high clouds on Tue and Fri. Similarly to Wed we
expect a cold front will follow Sat thus cooler next weekend. As
upper low passes by Sat a few high based -SHRA/-TSRA will be
possible in assocn with cold mid level temps on Sat.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today fire wx concerns are focused in the GDP Mtns/SE NM/Van Horn
area where there will be a prominent low level thermal ridge with
85h winds (~5kft) of 25-30kts and where RFTI of 4-6 is forecast.
Roadside green-up does reduce roadside start potential, but IA
potential certainly increases today. Critical fire wx will expand
Tue into most of the PB and farther s into the Trans Pecos. Green-up
across the PB does mitigate fire wx concerns and precludes the
issuance of a watch for these areas. In the Trans Pecos there has
been some green-up, but not sure how strong it is? For now will
issue a Red Flag today for GDP Mtns/SE NM/Van Horn area and a
watch for same areas on Tue. Basically for Tue strongest fire wx
will occur in area that has the best green-up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  62  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       95  62  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         87  60  96  67 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  93  62  94  63 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 83  57  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          91  60  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          87  49  88  54 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           91  62  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         91  62  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           94  61  94  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$
104
FXUS64 KMAF 240518
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1218 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Southerly
to southeasterly winds tonight will veer to the southwest at all
terminals by Monday afternoon and increase, with gusts to 20-30kt
expected areawide. Higher gusts will be possible at CNM Monday
afternoon into Monday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
It has been a beautiful spring day with clear skies, light winds,
and highs slightly below normal. That will come to an end tomorrow
as increasing zonal flow sends temps back above normal, reaching
the 90s in many locations. Winds in the Guadalupe Mountains will
approach High Wind Warning criteria Monday but the stronger winds
will not arrive until Tuesday as a trough moves out of the Pacific
Northwest and into the Central Rockies. A High Wind Watch may be
needed for the Guadalupe Mountains for Tuesday in the next 24
hours. The trough will be too far north to provide us with rain
chances so unfortunately we will only see hot and windy conditions
ahead of the trough followed with a cold front on Wednesday
dropping temperatures back down to near normal.

A transition away from zonal flow will occur at the of the week as
a strong upper low digs into the Four Corners Region early
Saturday. This low will be farther south than the one expected in
the next 48 hours so we may see some precipitation in the area
from this system. Current models are showing the bulk of the
rainfall to our north but this could certainly change over the
next several days and bears watching.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
Above average temperatures will combine with windy and dry
conditions beginning Monday heightening fire weather concerns.
Minimum relative humidities of 15 percent or less will extend as far
east as the central Permian Basin on Monday with many places
experiencing minimum RH values in the single digits. Winds of 20 mph
or greater will likely be along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos on
Monday. Due to these conditions, have decided to issue a Fire
Weather Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico
plains for Monday. Will not issue a watch for other areas that may
reach the wind and humidity criteria due to greenup from recent
rains. Fire weather concerns will be even greater on Tuesday due to
winds increasing and low RH values across the whole area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  51  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       76  50  93  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         75  54  89  59 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  75  56  95  62 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  56  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          72  49  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          73  47  84  47 /   0   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           72  53  93  62 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  54  93  62 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           75  53  96  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
711
FXUS64 KMAF 232340
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
640 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with few clouds. Gusty S wind should die off around sunset
and pick up again Monday afternoon out of the S to SW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
It has been a beautiful spring day with clear skies, light winds,
and highs slightly below normal. That will come to an end tomorrow
as increasing zonal flow sends temps back above normal, reaching
the 90s in many locations. Winds in the Guadalupe Mountains will
approach High Wind Warning criteria Monday but the stronger winds
will not arrive until Tuesday as a trough moves out of the Pacific
Northwest and into the Central Rockies. A High Wind Watch may be
needed for the Guadalupe Mountains for Tuesday in the next 24
hours. The trough will be too far north to provide us with rain
chances so unfortunately we will only see hot and windy conditions
ahead of the trough followed with a cold front on Wednesday
dropping temperatures back down to near normal.

A transition away from zonal flow will occur at the of the week as
a strong upper low digs into the Four Corners Region early
Saturday. This low will be farther south than the one expected in
the next 48 hours so we may see some precipitation in the area
from this system. Current models are showing the bulk of the
rainfall to our north but this could certainly change over the
next several days and bears watching.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
Above average temperatures will combine with windy and dry
conditions beginning Monday heightening fire weather concerns.
Minimum relative humidities of 15 percent or less will extend as far
east as the central Permian Basin on Monday with many places
experiencing minimum RH values in the single digits. Winds of 20 mph
or greater will likely be along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos on
Monday. Due to these conditions, have decided to issue a Fire
Weather Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico
plains for Monday. Will not issue a watch for other areas that may
reach the wind and humidity criteria due to greenup from recent
rains. Fire weather concerns will be even greater on Tuesday due to
winds increasing and low RH values across the whole area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  91  62  94 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       50  93  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  89  59  99 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  56  95  62  96 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 56  80  57  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          49  91  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          47  84  47  86 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           53  93  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         54  93  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           53  96  60  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

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  • National Weather Service
  • Southern Region Headquarters
  • 819 Taylor Street, Room 10A06
  • Fort Worth, TX 76102
  • Page Author: NWS Fort Worth
  • Web Master: SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov
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  • Page last modified: 30-Sep-2016 6:36 PM UTC
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