Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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602
FXUS64 KMAF 180424
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1024 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings will lower to IFR, if not VLIFR, at most area
terminals overnight.  Fog will thicken, but may take most of the
night to form under the low cloud deck.  Low ceilings and fog will
begin to lift/mix out around 18/15Z, with VFR conditions expected
thereafter.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 438 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

UPDATE...

Update to add a mix of wintry precipitation to the higher
elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains.  The latest Aviation
Discussion is included too.

DISCUSSION...

Updated forecast to include mention of snow, freezing rain, and
sleet to the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains this
evening.  The current temperature in The Bowl has hit freezing with
precipitation currently falling in and near the Guadalupe Mountains.
High resolution models are showing precipitation lingering across
that area into this evening with the passage of the upper trough
over the area with temperatures falling farther. Precipitation
will be light, so little to no accumulation is expected this
evening across this area.  80

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms could affect KCNM this evening, while ceilings drop to
IFR at the other area terminals.  Ceilings will probably drop to
LIFR or VLIFR later tonight, and fog will likely drop most terminals
to MVFR.  Expect low clouds and fog to linger through much of
Wednesday morning at most sites.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 100 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

Large upper trough extending from the Canadian border well into
Mexico will develop a closed low over the AZ/NM border.  This low
will slowly slide east the next couple of days as a West Coast
trough pushes it along.  This next trough will reach the 4 corners
region by early Friday moving over NM/TX later that day.

A cold front moved through last night. Temps cooler today in post
frontal conditions with increased clouds cover.  Most of the region
expected to stay in the 40s.  Temps start to recover Wednesday as a
westerly wind sweeps across the area pushing highs into the mid 50s
to lower 60s as sunshine returns.  Even warmer Thursday.

Precip chances return today with showers and a few storms today
moving up from the south that will pass to the north this evening.
Should have another shot at rain this weekend.  Have increased pops
across Lea Co and Northern Permian Basin tonight.  Expect most of
the precip to be north of the area by the time temperatures fall
below freezing but went ahead and threw a mention of mixed precip
northwest after midnight as lows of 30-32 expected. There could be a
brief transition time when temps are low enough for the mix to occur.
Precip should be out of the area by sunrise.

It looks windy Friday and Saturday with a gusty west wind due to an
approaching upper trough before the next cold front blows through
early Sunday.  Will have to monitor high wind potential at GDP these
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     36  58  40  68 /  60  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       32  62  38  68 /  50  10   0   0
Dryden                         39  64  43  73 /  40  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  34  62  44  71 /  40  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 31  54  35  55 /  40  10   0   0
Hobbs                          32  56  36  64 /  60  10   0   0
Marfa                          27  58  29  61 /  30   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           34  57  40  67 /  50  10   0   0
Odessa                         34  57  39  65 /  50  10   0   0
Wink                           34  61  37  68 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
966
FXUS64 KMAF 172238
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
438 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.UPDATE...

Update to add a mix of wintry precipitation to the higher
elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains.  The latest Aviation
Discussion is included too.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Updated forecast to include mention of snow, freezing rain, and
sleet to the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains this
evening.  The current temperature in The Bowl has hit freezing with
precipitation currently falling in and near the Guadalupe Mountains.
High resolution models are showing precipitation lingering across
that area into this evening with the passage of the upper trough
over the area with temperatures falling farther. Precipitation
will be light, so little to no accumulation is expected this
evening across this area.  80

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms could affect KCNM this evening, while ceilings drop to
IFR at the other area terminals.  Ceilings will probably drop to
LIFR or VLIFR later tonight, and fog will likely drop most terminals
to MVFR.  Expect low clouds and fog to linger through much of
Wednesday morning at most sites.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 100 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

Large upper trough extending from the Canadian border well into
Mexico will develop a closed low over the AZ/NM border.  This low
will slowly slide east the next couple of days as a West Coast
trough pushes it along.  This next trough will reach the 4 corners
region by early Friday moving over NM/TX later that day.

A cold front moved through last night. Temps cooler today in post
frontal conditions with increased clouds cover.  Most of the region
expected to stay in the 40s.  Temps start to recover Wednesday as a
westerly wind sweeps across the area pushing highs into the mid 50s
to lower 60s as sunshine returns.  Even warmer Thursday.

Precip chances return today with showers and a few storms today
moving up from the south that will pass to the north this evening.
Should have another shot at rain this weekend.  Have increased pops
across Lea Co and Northern Permian Basin tonight.  Expect most of
the precip to be north of the area by the time temperatures fall
below freezing but went ahead and threw a mention of mixed precip
northwest after midnight as lows of 30-32 expected. There could be a
brief transition time when temps are low enough for the mix to occur.
Precip should be out of the area by sunrise.

It looks windy Friday and Saturday with a gusty west wind due to an
approaching upper trough before the next cold front blows through
early Sunday.  Will have to monitor high wind potential at GDP these
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     36  58  40  68 /  60  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       32  62  38  68 /  50  10   0   0
Dryden                         39  64  43  73 /  40  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  34  62  44  71 /  40  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 31  54  35  55 /  40  10   0   0
Hobbs                          32  56  36  64 /  60  10   0   0
Marfa                          27  58  29  61 /  30   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           34  57  40  67 /  50  10   0   0
Odessa                         34  57  39  65 /  50  10   0   0
Wink                           34  61  37  68 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/72
083
FXUS64 KMAF 171900
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
100 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Large upper trough extending from the Canadian border well into
Mexico will develop a closed low over the AZ/NM border.  This low
will slowly slide east the next couple of days as a West Coast
trough pushes it along.  This next trough will reach the 4 corners
region by early Friday moving over NM/TX later that day.

A cold front moved through last night. Temps cooler today in post
frontal conditions with increased clouds cover.  Most of the region
expected to stay in the 40s.  Temps start to recover Wednesday as a
westerly wind sweeps across the area pushing highs into the mid 50s
to lower 60s as sunshine returns.  Even warmer Thursday.

Precip chances return today with showers and a few storms today
moving up from the south that will pass to the north this evening.
Should have another shot at rain this weekend.  Have increased pops
across Lea Co and Northern Permian Basin tonight.  Expect most of
the precip to be north of the area by the time temperatures fall
below freezing but went ahead and threw a mention of mixed precip
northwest after midnight as lows of 30-32 expected. There could be a
brief transition time when temps are low enough for the mix to occur.
Precip should be out of the area by sunrise.

It looks windy Friday and Saturday with a gusty west wind due to an
approaching upper trough before the next cold front blows through
early Sunday.  Will have to monitor high wind potential at GDP these
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     36  58  40  68 /  60  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       32  62  38  68 /  50  10   0   0
Dryden                         39  64  43  73 /  40  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  34  62  44  71 /  40  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 31  54  35  55 /  40  10   0   0
Hobbs                          32  56  36  64 /  60  10   0   0
Marfa                          27  58  29  61 /  30   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           34  57  40  67 /  50  10   0   0
Odessa                         34  57  39  65 /  50  10   0   0
Wink                           34  61  37  68 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/72
799
FXUS64 KMAF 171748
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1148 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and expand in
coverage, thus have included -RA at area terminals, with -TSRA
mention for MAF/FST for the next few hours where confidence is
highest. Will continue to monitor and amend other terminals as
needed. While a mixed bag of MVFR/VFR conditions currently exist,
expect MVFR conditions to expand areawide over the next hour or
two. Conditions will then deteriorate to IFR/LIFR with low
clouds/fog this evening, persisting through Wednesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A reinforcing shot of cooler air has entered the area this morning
bringing a brief return of the cool temps seen this past weekend.
Farther west, an upper low over northwestern Mexico will move
northeast today sending a strong vort max across west Texas near
00Z. The low will increase isentropic lift behind the front but it
is the smaller disturbance rotating around the low that will
increase instability enough to really increase showers and
isolated storms this afternoon and early evening. The rain will
mostly exit the area by midnight so temperatures should be warm
enough that the precipitation type will be all liquid. Any area
that has temperatures fall below freezing tonight will have
already had the precip come to an end. However there could be
some overpasses getting slick with residual water on the roads in
southeastern New Mexico and the far northwestern Permian Basin so
motorists should be aware of this hazard.

Southwest flow ahead of the low will push moisture east of the
area tomorrow but the low will take an additional 24 hours to exit
the area. A mean 500 mb longwave trough will remain across the
western U.S. this week so more disturbances can be expected
moving out of the Pacific and across New Mexico and Texas. The
first will arrive Thursday night with the center passing too far
north to provide our CWA with any rainfall. Another arrives this
weekend and while its track will be to the north as well, this
system will be stronger and could give us a chance for rainfall.
At this time the temperatures appear too warm for any chance of
wintry precip.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     36  58  40  68 /  50  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       32  62  38  68 /  40  10   0   0
Dryden                         39  64  43  73 /  30  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  34  62  44  71 /  30   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 31  54  35  55 /  30  10   0   0
Hobbs                          32  56  35  64 /  50  10   0   0
Marfa                          27  58  29  61 /  20   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           35  57  40  66 /  50  10   0   0
Odessa                         36  57  39  65 /  50  10   0   0
Wink                           34  61  37  68 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
723
FXUS64 KMAF 171128
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
528 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

Patchy areas of low cigs developing this morning, currently
affecting CNM and FST. Low clouds are expected to fill in at other
terminals later today with increasing rain chances. Flight
conditions look to deteriorate after 18/00Z with IFR/LIFR cigs/vis
persisting through Wednesday morning. Otherwise...a few
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening however
did not mention TS in TAF attm given isolated coverage expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A reinforcing shot of cooler air has entered the area this morning
bringing a brief return of the cool temps seen this past weekend.
Farther west, an upper low over northwestern Mexico will move
northeast today sending a strong vort max across west Texas near
00Z. The low will increase isentropic lift behind the front but it
is the smaller disturbance rotating around the low that will
increase instability enough to really increase showers and
isolated storms this afternoon and early evening. The rain will
mostly exit the area by midnight so temperatures should be warm
enough that the precipitation type will be all liquid. Any area
that has temperatures fall below freezing tonight will have
already had the precip come to an end. However there could be
some overpasses getting slick with residual water on the roads in
southeastern New Mexico and the far northwestern Permian Basin so
motorists should be aware of this hazard.

Southwest flow ahead of the low will push moisture east of the
area tomorrow but the low will take an additional 24 hours to exit
the area. A mean 500 mb longwave trough will remain across the
western U.S. this week so more disturbances can be expected
moving out of the Pacific and across New Mexico and Texas. The
first will arrive Thursday night with the center passing too far
north to provide our CWA with any rainfall. Another arrives this
weekend and while its track will be to the north as well, this
system will be stronger and could give us a chance for rainfall.
At this time the temperatures appear too warm for any chance of
wintry precip.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  36  58  40 /  50  50  10   0
Carlsbad                       46  32  62  38 /  60  40  10   0
Dryden                         51  39  64  43 /  50  30  10   0
Fort Stockton                  45  34  62  44 /  50  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  31  54  35 /  60  30  10   0
Hobbs                          47  32  56  35 /  50  50  10   0
Marfa                          48  27  58  29 /  30  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  35  57  40 /  60  50  10   0
Odessa                         46  36  57  39 /  60  50  10   0
Wink                           48  34  61  37 /  60  40  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/10
426
FXUS64 KMAF 171009
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
409 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A reinforcing shot of cooler air has entered the area this morning
bringing a brief return of the cool temps seen this past weekend.
Farther west, an upper low over northwestern Mexico will move
northeast today sending a strong vort max across west Texas near
00Z. The low will increase isentropic lift behind the front but it
is the smaller disturbance rotating around the low that will
increase instability enough to really increase showers and
isolated storms this afternoon and early evening. The rain will
mostly exit the area by midnight so temperatures should be warm
enough that the precipitation type will be all liquid. Any area
that has temperatures fall below freezing tonight will have
already had the precip come to an end. However there could be
some overpasses getting slick with residual water on the roads in
southeastern New Mexico and the far northwestern Permian Basin so
motorists should be aware of this hazard.

Southwest flow ahead of the low will push moisture east of the
area tomorrow but the low will take an additional 24 hours to exit
the area. A mean 500 mb longwave trough will remain across the
western U.S. this week so more disturbances can be expected
moving out of the Pacific and across New Mexico and Texas. The
first will arrive Thursday night with the center passing too far
north to provide our CWA with any rainfall. Another arrives this
weekend and while its track will be to the north as well, this
system will be stronger and could give us a chance for rainfall.
At this time the temperatures appear too warm for any chance of
wintry precip.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  36  58  40 /  50  50  10   0
Carlsbad                       46  32  62  38 /  60  40  10   0
Dryden                         51  39  64  43 /  50  30  10   0
Fort Stockton                  45  34  62  44 /  50  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  31  54  35 /  60  30  10   0
Hobbs                          47  32  56  35 /  50  50  10   0
Marfa                          48  27  58  29 /  30  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  35  57  40 /  60  50  10   0
Odessa                         46  36  57  39 /  60  50  10   0
Wink                           48  34  61  37 /  60  40  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/10
906
FXUS64 KMAF 170413
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1013 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail until a cold front arrives late
tonight/early Tuesday morning, bringing a bout of stratus/fog.
Fropa is hard to pinpoint, as winds will remain fairly light, but
buffer soundings bring stratus into KHOB as soon as 08Z, and
other terminals shortly thereafter. Soundings suggest cigs dropping
to LIFR for a few hours w/initial fropa, then improving
throughout the day to MVFR by late afternoon. Cigs/visibilities
then crater to IFR/LIFR after 00Z. This could happen sooner if the
upper trough speeds up.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 202 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought the rain to the area has moved off.
Now a secondary trough digging across the 4 corners region will
develop a cut off low along the US/Mex border tomorrow that will
wander northward.  By Thursday this low will also lift NE as the
next upper trough moving over the Intermountain West kicks it out.
A third upper trough follows that one as the pattern remains active.

Its sunny and warmer today with temperatures climbing into the 60s
but a front will move through tonight and knock temps back down into
the 40s tomorrow.  However normal temps return Wednesday and warm
through the end of the week. Looking at a Pacific front blowing
through Saturday... probably be windy.

Will have a low chance of rainshowers returning to the area Tuesday
behind the front and again Saturday.  Many locations received a good
rainfall yesterday... MAF set a daily record with 0.81 inches... Big
Spring had 0.91... McCamey 1.10... Lomax 1.15... and Welch 1.17.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     34  48  36  59 /   0  30  30  10
Carlsbad                       34  46  33  60 /  10  30  20  10
Dryden                         46  53  41  63 /   0  40  30  10
Fort Stockton                  38  48  36  60 /   0  30  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 34  40  33  51 /   0  30  20  10
Hobbs                          31  45  33  56 /   0  30  20  10
Marfa                          31  46  28  57 /   0  30  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           35  48  36  58 /   0  30  30  10
Odessa                         36  47  36  58 /   0  30  30  10
Wink                           35  49  34  58 /   0  30  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44
146
FXUS64 KMAF 162312
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
512 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail until a cold front arrives late
tonight/early Tuesday morning, bringing a bout of stratus/fog.
Fropa is hard to pinpoint, as winds will remain fairly light, but
buffer soundings bring stratus into KHOB as soon as 08Z Tuesday,
and other termianls shortly thereafter. Soundings suggest
cigs/visibility dropping to LIFR for a few hours w/intial fropa,
then improving throughout the day to MVFR by the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 202 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought the rain to the area has moved off.
Now a secondary trough digging across the 4 corners region will
develop a cut off low along the US/Mex border tomorrow that will
wander northward.  By Thursday this low will also lift NE as the
next upper trough moving over the Intermountain West kicks it out.
A third upper trough follows that one as the pattern remains active.

Its sunny and warmer today with temperatures climbing into the 60s
but a front will move through tonight and knock temps back down into
the 40s tomorrow.  However normal temps return Wednesday and warm
through the end of the week. Looking at a Pacific front blowing
through Saturday... probably be windy.

Will have a low chance of rainshowers returning to the area Tuesday
behind the front and again Saturday.  Many locations received a good
rainfall yesterday... MAF set a daily record with 0.81 inches... Big
Spring had 0.91... McCamey 1.10... Lomax 1.15... and Welch 1.17.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     34  48  36  59 /   0  30  30  10
Carlsbad                       34  46  33  60 /  10  30  20  10
Dryden                         46  53  41  63 /   0  40  30  10
Fort Stockton                  38  48  36  60 /   0  30  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 34  40  33  51 /   0  30  20  10
Hobbs                          31  45  33  56 /   0  30  20  10
Marfa                          31  46  28  57 /   0  30  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           35  48  36  58 /   0  30  30  10
Odessa                         36  47  36  58 /   0  30  30  10
Wink                           35  49  34  58 /   0  30  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44
608
FXUS64 KMAF 162002
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
202 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought the rain to the area has moved off.
Now a secondary trough digging across the 4 corners region will
develop a cut off low along the US/Mex border tomorrow that will
wander northward.  By Thursday this low will also lift NE as the
next upper trough moving over the Intermountain West kicks it out.
A third upper trough follows that one as the pattern remains active.

Its sunny and warmer today with temperatures climbing into the 60s
but a front will move through tonight and knock temps back down into
the 40s tomorrow.  However normal temps return Wednesday and warm
through the end of the week. Looking at a Pacific front blowing
through Saturday... probably be windy.

Will have a low chance of rainshowers returning to the area Tuesday
behind the front and again Saturday.  Many locations received a good
rainfall yesterday... MAF set a daily record with 0.81 inches... Big
Spring had 0.91... McCamey 1.10... Lomax 1.15... and Welch 1.17.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     34  48  36  59 /   0  30  30  10
Carlsbad                       34  46  33  60 /  10  30  20  10
Dryden                         46  53  41  63 /   0  40  30  10
Fort Stockton                  38  48  36  60 /   0  30  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 34  40  33  51 /   0  30  20  10
Hobbs                          31  45  33  56 /   0  30  20  10
Marfa                          31  46  28  57 /   0  30  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           35  48  36  58 /   0  30  30  10
Odessa                         36  47  36  58 /   0  30  30  10
Wink                           35  49  34  58 /   0  30  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/72
597
FXUS64 KMAF 161755
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1155 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail into tonight, however, late this
evening, a cold front will begin to move into the area. The front
will be accompanied by a northeasterly wind shift, and is expected
first at CNM/HOB around 04-06Z. MVFR ceilings will lag behind the
front by several hours, but should gradually overspread the area
by Friday morning. Fog may also develop, though have only included
mention at CNM/HOB where confidence is highest. Prior to the
front, southwesterly winds around 12kt or less will continue.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 202 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

The upper low that brought thunderstorms to the area yesterday has
lifted into the Plains this morning. Low level moisture remains in
place however and is combining with light winds to produce fog,
some dense, across northern parts of the region. Fog will begin
to mix out later this morning as the sun works on it and westerly
winds pick up. Look for mostly sunny skies by afternoon across
most of the area with highs climbing back to near normal. An upper
trough will lag back to our west behind the main system over the
Plains. This will bring another chance for showers Tuesday along
with cooler temperatures behind a cold front. The upper trough
really doesn`t leave the area until it gets kicked out by another
system Thursday. After Tuesday much of the precipitation
associated with this trough will remain east of our area. High
temperatures will slowly moderate back above normal by late week.

As we head into the weekend, models indicate an intense upper jet
will streak across the western U.S. and into our area. This system
looks to bring strong winds for possibly a lengthy period of time,
but models disagree on timing. We could also see another chance
of rain across portions of the area. Once the system moves by,
temperatures will cool and drier air will filter in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     35  50  38  59 /   0  20  30  10
Carlsbad                       36  48  36  59 /  10  20  20  10
Dryden                         46  54  43  62 /   0  30  30  10
Fort Stockton                  38  50  38  60 /   0  20  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 34  42  35  51 /   0  20  20  10
Hobbs                          32  47  35  56 /   0  20  20  10
Marfa                          32  49  32  57 /   0  20  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           35  50  38  58 /   0  20  30  10
Odessa                         36  49  38  58 /   0  20  30  10
Wink                           35  50  36  58 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
518
FXUS64 KMAF 161011
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
411 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR, if not VILFR, visibility in fog may affect KCNM and KHOB thru
16/15Z, with perhaps MVFR at KINK and KMAF.  Westerly surface
winds and heating will likely help dissipate the fog by 16/16Z, or
shortly thereafter.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
areawide through tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 202 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

The upper low that brought thunderstorms to the area yesterday has
lifted into the Plains this morning. Low level moisture remains in
place however and is combining with light winds to produce fog,
some dense, across northern parts of the region. Fog will begin
to mix out later this morning as the sun works on it and westerly
winds pick up. Look for mostly sunny skies by afternoon across
most of the area with highs climbing back to near normal. An upper
trough will lag back to our west behind the main system over the
Plains. This will bring another chance for showers Tuesday along
with cooler temperatures behind a cold front. The upper trough
really doesn`t leave the area until it gets kicked out by another
system Thursday. After Tuesday much of the precipitation
associated with this trough will remain east of our area. High
temperatures will slowly moderate back above normal by late week.

As we head into the weekend, models indicate an intense upper jet
will streak across the western U.S. and into our area. This system
looks to bring strong winds for possibly a lengthy period of time,
but models disagree on timing. We could also see another chance
of rain across portions of the area. Once the system moves by,
temperatures will cool and drier air will filter in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     61  35  50  38 /   0   0  20  30
Carlsbad                       60  36  48  36 /   0  10  20  20
Dryden                         70  46  54  43 /   0   0  30  30
Fort Stockton                  65  38  50  38 /   0   0  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 51  34  42  35 /   0   0  20  20
Hobbs                          57  32  47  35 /   0   0  20  20
Marfa                          59  32  49  32 /   0   0  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           61  35  50  38 /   0   0  20  30
Odessa                         61  36  49  38 /   0   0  20  30
Wink                           61  35  50  36 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
918
FXUS64 KMAF 160802
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
202 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The upper low that brought thunderstorms to the area yesterday has
lifted into the Plains this morning. Low level moisture remains in
place however and is combining with light winds to produce fog,
some dense, across northern parts of the region. Fog will begin
to mix out later this morning as the sun works on it and westerly
winds pick up. Look for mostly sunny skies by afternoon across
most of the area with highs climbing back to near normal. An upper
trough will lag back to our west behind the main system over the
Plains. This will bring another chance for showers Tuesday along
with cooler temperatures behind a cold front. The upper trough
really doesn`t leave the area until it gets kicked out by another
system Thursday. After Tuesday much of the precipitation
associated with this trough will remain east of our area. High
temperatures will slowly moderate back above normal by late week.

As we head into the weekend, models indicate an intense upper jet
will streak across the western U.S. and into our area. This system
looks to bring strong winds for possibly a lengthy period of time,
but models disagree on timing. We could also see another chance
of rain across portions of the area. Once the system moves by,
temperatures will cool and drier air will filter in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     61  35  50  38 /   0   0  20  30
Carlsbad                       60  36  48  36 /   0  10  20  20
Dryden                         70  46  54  43 /   0   0  30  30
Fort Stockton                  65  38  50  38 /   0   0  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 51  34  42  35 /   0   0  20  20
Hobbs                          57  32  47  35 /   0   0  20  20
Marfa                          59  32  49  32 /   0   0  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           61  35  50  38 /   0   0  20  30
Odessa                         61  36  49  38 /   0   0  20  30
Wink                           61  35  50  36 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
910
FXUS64 KMAF 160426
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1026 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Latest obs/radar/satellite imagery shows precip has cleared West
texas and Southeast new Mexico, and latest models suggest no
wraparound/redevelopment overnight. We`ll do a quick update to
remove rain chances, and update other parameters as necessary.
Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 935 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough now ejecting NE thru the S.
Plains, having scoured all terminals to VFR except maybe KHOB. No
obs for KHOB are available, but last obs had LIFR cigs. Otherwise,
all other terminals should keep VFR cigs next 24 hours. Sfc flow
should remain SW-W thru 00Z Tue, after which light return flow
develops. The only wild card overnight will be fog development.
For now, we`ll continue a mention of MVFR visibilities around
sunrise KMAF/KHOB/KINK, and update as needed.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Have an upper low swinging over the area today with a secondary
trough staying back to the west.  This next trough will dig
southward to Mexico before moving across the area later in the week
as a West Coast trough kicks it east.  This pattern should give us
another shot at some rainfall for the coming week.

Widespread cloud cover over the region will be on the decrease this
evening and Monday as a Pacific front pushes through.  At 19z the
upper low can be seen on satellite SE of ELP.  The Pacific front
should push west later today with a polar front moving down into the
region late Monday/early Tuesday.

The severe wx threat today should be ending this afternoon as a line
of storms over the region moves east.  Will leave low pops in
tonight mainly east for any lingering precip.  Do have some showers
in the forecast mid week with the next upper trough.  High wind
still possible in the Guadalupe Mtns this evening in the wake of the
upper low and Pacific front... will leave the warning in effect
through 11pm mst.

Temperatures have warmed today as the warm front lifts northward but
the northern counties remain cold in the 30s.  Looking for another
cold night with lows in the 30s over most of the region but Monday
temperatures should warm above normal as 60s return.  Tuesday will
be cooler but the rest of the week should be above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  61  36  55 /  30   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       37  59  34  52 /  20   0  10   0
Dryden                         44  69  46  59 /  20   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  40  65  38  57 /  10   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 34  50  34  48 /  20   0  10   0
Hobbs                          33  56  31  53 /  20   0  10   0
Marfa                          27  58  30  55 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           37  61  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Odessa                         37  60  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Wink                           36  62  34  56 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/44
205
FXUS64 KMAF 160335
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
935 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough now ejecting NE thru the S.
Plains, having scoured all terminals to VFR except maybe KHOB. No
obs for KHOB are available, but last obs had LIFR cigs. Otherwise,
all other terminals should keep VFR cigs next 24 hours. Sfc flow
should remain SW-W thru 00Z Tue, after which light return flow
develops. The only wild card overnight will be fog development.
For now, we`ll continue a mention of MVFR visibilities around
sunrise KMAF/KHOB/KINK, and update as needed.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Have an upper low swinging over the area today with a secondary
trough staying back to the west.  This next trough will dig
southward to Mexico before moving across the area later in the week
as a West Coast trough kicks it east.  This pattern should give us
another shot at some rainfall for the coming week.

Widespread cloud cover over the region will be on the decrease this
evening and Monday as a Pacific front pushes through.  At 19z the
upper low can be seen on satellite SE of ELP.  The Pacific front
should push west later today with a polar front moving down into the
region late Monday/early Tuesday.

The severe wx threat today should be ending this afternoon as a line
of storms over the region moves east.  Will leave low pops in
tonight mainly east for any lingering precip.  Do have some showers
in the forecast mid week with the next upper trough.  High wind
still possible in the Guadalupe Mtns this evening in the wake of the
upper low and Pacific front... will leave the warning in effect
through 11pm mst.

Temperatures have warmed today as the warm front lifts northward but
the northern counties remain cold in the 30s.  Looking for another
cold night with lows in the 30s over most of the region but Monday
temperatures should warm above normal as 60s return.  Tuesday will
be cooler but the rest of the week should be above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  61  36  55 /  30   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       37  59  34  52 /  20   0  10   0
Dryden                         44  69  46  59 /  20   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  40  65  38  57 /  10   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 34  50  34  48 /  20   0  10   0
Hobbs                          33  56  31  53 /  20   0  10   0
Marfa                          27  58  30  55 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           37  61  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Odessa                         37  60  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Wink                           36  62  34  56 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/84/44
944
FXUS64 KMAF 160306
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
906 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated to cancel the High Wind Warning, and also removed mention
of thunder for the rest of the evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Winds across the Guadalupe Mountains have dropped below High Wind
Warning criteria, and are expected to continue to diminish
overnight tonight. Thus, have gone ahead and canceled the High
Wind Warning that was in effect. Also, as the upper low
responsible for the active weather today continues to lift to the
northeast, the threat of thunderstorms has shifted well to the
east of the area this evening, thus ending the potential for
thunderstorms through tonight. A few showers remain possible,
particularly across northern portions of the forecast area, but
additional rain amounts will be light.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 509 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough centered over SE NM, ushering in
dryer air as westerly sfc flow sets in. Skies are rapidly
improving behind the main band of convection, which has cleared
all terminals. Worst case scenario looks to be possible
redevelopment of MVFR cigs overnight KMAF/KCNM/KINK, and maybe IFR
KHOB. Bigger question will be fog development, and forecast
soundings develop it at KHOB, KINK, and KMAF near sunrise.
W/westerly flow, this will be questionable, and we`ll keep
visibilities at MVFR or better for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Have an upper low swinging over the area today with a secondary
trough staying back to the west.  This next trough will dig
southward to Mexico before moving across the area later in the week
as a West Coast trough kicks it east.  This pattern should give us
another shot at some rainfall for the coming week.

Widespread cloud cover over the region will be on the decrease this
evening and Monday as a Pacific front pushes through.  At 19z the
upper low can be seen on satellite SE of ELP.  The Pacific front
should push west later today with a polar front moving down into the
region late Monday/early Tuesday.

The severe wx threat today should be ending this afternoon as a line
of storms over the region moves east.  Will leave low pops in
tonight mainly east for any lingering precip.  Do have some showers
in the forecast mid week with the next upper trough.  High wind
still possible in the Guadalupe Mtns this evening in the wake of the
upper low and Pacific front... will leave the warning in effect
through 11pm mst.

Temperatures have warmed today as the warm front lifts northward but
the northern counties remain cold in the 30s.  Looking for another
cold night with lows in the 30s over most of the region but Monday
temperatures should warm above normal as 60s return.  Tuesday will
be cooler but the rest of the week should be above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  61  36  55 /  30   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       37  59  34  52 /  20   0  10   0
Dryden                         44  69  46  59 /  20   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  40  65  38  57 /  10   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 34  50  34  48 /  20   0  10   0
Hobbs                          33  56  31  53 /  20   0  10   0
Marfa                          27  58  30  55 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           37  61  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Odessa                         37  60  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Wink                           36  62  34  56 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
553
FXUS64 KMAF 152309
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
509 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough centered over SE NM, ushering in
dryer air as westerly sfc flow sets in. Skies are rapidly
improving behind the main band of convection, which has cleared
all terminals. Worst case scenario looks to be possible
redevelopment of MVFR cigs overnight KMAF/KCNM/KINK, and maybe IFR
KHOB. Bigger question will be fog development, and forecast
soundings develop it at KHOB, KINK, and KMAF near sunrise.
W/westerly flow, this will be questionable, and we`ll keep
visibilities at MVFR or better for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Have an upper low swinging over the area today with a secondary
trough staying back to the west.  This next trough will dig
southward to Mexico before moving across the area later in the week
as a West Coast trough kicks it east.  This pattern should give us
another shot at some rainfall for the coming week.

Widespread cloud cover over the region will be on the decrease this
evening and Monday as a Pacific front pushes through.  At 19z the
upper low can be seen on satellite SE of ELP.  The Pacific front
should push west later today with a polar front moving down into the
region late Monday/early Tuesday.

The severe wx threat today should be ending this afternoon as a line
of storms over the region moves east.  Will leave low pops in
tonight mainly east for any lingering precip.  Do have some showers
in the forecast mid week with the next upper trough.  High wind
still possible in the Guadalupe Mtns this evening in the wake of the
upper low and Pacific front... will leave the warning in effect
through 11pm mst.

Temperatures have warmed today as the warm front lifts northward but
the northern counties remain cold in the 30s.  Looking for another
cold night with lows in the 30s over most of the region but Monday
temperatures should warm above normal as 60s return.  Tuesday will
be cooler but the rest of the week should be above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  61  36  55 /  30   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       37  59  34  52 /  20   0  10   0
Dryden                         44  69  46  59 /  20   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  40  65  38  57 /  10   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 34  50  34  48 /  20   0  10   0
Hobbs                          33  56  31  53 /  20   0  10   0
Marfa                          27  58  30  55 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           37  61  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Odessa                         37  60  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Wink                           36  62  34  56 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

44/84/44
816
FXUS64 KMAF 152011
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
211 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Have an upper low swinging over the area today with a secondary
trough staying back to the west.  This next trough will dig
southward to Mexico before moving across the area later in the week
as a West Coast trough kicks it east.  This pattern should give us
another shot at some rainfall for the coming week.

Widespread cloud cover over the region will be on the decrease this
evening and Monday as a Pacific front pushes through.  At 19z the
upper low can be seen on satellite SE of ELP.  The Pacific front
should push west later today with a polar front moving down into the
region late Monday/early Tuesday.

The severe wx threat today should be ending this afternoon as a line
of storms over the region moves east.  Will leave low pops in
tonight mainly east for any lingering precip.  Do have some showers
in the forecast mid week with the next upper trough.  High wind
still possible in the Guadalupe Mtns this evening in the wake of the
upper low and Pacific front... will leave the warning in effect
through 11pm mst.

Temperatures have warmed today as the warm front lifts northward but
the northern counties remain cold in the 30s.  Looking for another
cold night with lows in the 30s over most of the region but Monday
temperatures should warm above normal as 60s return.  Tuesday will
be cooler but the rest of the week should be above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  61  36  55 /  30   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       37  59  34  52 /  20   0  10   0
Dryden                         44  69  46  59 /  20   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  40  65  38  57 /  10   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 34  50  34  48 /  20   0  10   0
Hobbs                          33  56  31  53 /  20   0  10   0
Marfa                          27  58  30  55 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           37  61  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Odessa                         37  60  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Wink                           36  62  34  56 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

49/72
105
FXUS64 KMAF 151735
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1135 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Warm front is lifting n and winds will turn se in its wake with
improving CIGS/VSBY. TSRA were from around HOB to MAF to FST
moving n at 40kt while the area is moving ne. Some strong to
possibly severe TSRA are possible. Consensus is that front is
expected to e of MAF/FST between 21Z- 22Z. Have TEMPO groups in
TAF sites til then. CIGS/VSBY will afterwards. but fog may settle
back in Mon AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 505 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms have broken up the LIFR visibility and
ceilings at area terminals somewhat.  The lower ceilings, and
visibility, may set back in through 15/15Z, but will carry mainly
MVFR ceilings, with temporary lower conditions.  Expect additional
thunderstorms to develop and spread west to east over the forecast
area.  Ceilings will lift, but gusts of 45kt or greater could occur
with TSRA. winds will veer to the southwest and increase after
thunderstorms pass by.  Expect VFR conditions areawide tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

.Severe storms and heavy rain possible across the area today...

Quite a bit going on this morning with strong storms along the
Pecos River and freezing rain across the northern Permian Basin.
First I`ll take on the freezing rain. Isentropic upglide continues
within the cold air north of a front that is currently along the
Rio Grande. This cold air has been stubborn to erode and models
have handled it very poorly. The saving grace this morning is that
dewpoints and surface temperatures are much closer to freezing.
Also, rain is falling through a very thick warm layer aloft and
helping to warm temperatures even more. We didn`t see many issues
Saturday morning and don`t anticipate any today. That being said,
a few slick spots could still develop on bridges and overpasses
from Lamesa to Snyder. Dense fog has also lasted into the early
morning, but is beginning to let up as rain continues to
increase.

Next up is the severe weather threat. The upper low causing all the
fun this morning has begun to lift northeast and will move directly
over our area today. Strong storms and heavy rain are moving slowly
east across the Upper Trans Pecos this morning. This initial wave
of rain will move into the Permian Basin through the morning and
remain elevated with heavy rain being the main threat. Later this
morning, a surface low will develop near Pecos and a warm front
will lift north across the Permian Basin. This will bring moist,
unstable air into the Lower Trans Pecos and southern Permian
Basin. MLCAPE values near 1500 J/kg will be possible in this area
by early afternoon. Meanwhile, strong bulk shear will support
organized convection including supercells. Additional storms will
likely develop late this morning over the higher terrain along a
cold front. These storms will lift into the unstable airmass and
be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. An isolated
tornado is not out of the question especially across the southern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos where low level shear is
greatest. Heavy rain will also accompany the storms and may cause
localized flash flooding.

The upper low will shift into the Plains Monday as a secondary upper
trough lags behind to our west. This will likely keep
temperatures near normal across the area into midweek. A few
showers will also be possible especially across the southern
portions of the region. Another storm system will begin to affect
the area late in the week into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  59  36  57 /  30   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       37  58  34  56 /  20   0  10  10
Dryden                         44  69  45  61 /  10   0  10  20
Fort Stockton                  40  63  39  59 /  10   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 35  50  34  50 /  20   0  10  10
Hobbs                          33  56  31  55 /  20   0  10  10
Marfa                          29  58  30  57 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           38  60  35  57 /  20   0   0  10
Odessa                         37  60  35  57 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           36  60  34  58 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
109
FXUS64 KMAF 151105
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
505 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms have broken up the LIFR visibility and
ceilings at area terminals somewhat.  The lower ceilings, and
visibility, may set back in through 15/15Z, but will carry mainly
MVFR ceilings, with temporary lower conditions.  Expect additional
thunderstorms to develop and spread west to east over the forecast
area.  Ceilings will lift, but gusts of 45kt or greater could occur
with TSRA. winds will veer to the southwest and increase after
thunderstorms pass by.  Expect VFR conditions areawide tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

..Severe storms and heavy rain possible across the area today...

Quite a bit going on this morning with strong storms along the
Pecos River and freezing rain across the northern Permian Basin.
First I`ll take on the freezing rain. Isentropic upglide continues
within the cold air north of a front that is currently along the
Rio Grande. This cold air has been stubborn to erode and models
have handled it very poorly. The saving grace this morning is that
dewpoints and surface temperatures are much closer to freezing.
Also, rain is falling through a very thick warm layer aloft and
helping to warm temperatures even more. We didn`t see many issues
Saturday morning and don`t anticipate any today. That being said,
a few slick spots could still develop on bridges and overpasses
from Lamesa to Snyder. Dense fog has also lasted into the early
morning, but is beginning to let up as rain continues to
increase.

Next up is the severe weather threat. The upper low causing all the
fun this morning has begun to lift northeast and will move directly
over our area today. Strong storms and heavy rain are moving slowly
east across the Upper Trans Pecos this morning. This initial wave
of rain will move into the Permian Basin through the morning and
remain elevated with heavy rain being the main threat. Later this
morning, a surface low will develop near Pecos and a warm front
will lift north across the Permian Basin. This will bring moist,
unstable air into the Lower Trans Pecos and southern Permian
Basin. MLCAPE values near 1500 J/kg will be possible in this area
by early afternoon. Meanwhile, strong bulk shear will support
organized convection including supercells. Additional storms will
likely develop late this morning over the higher terrain along a
cold front. These storms will lift into the unstable airmass and
be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. An isolated
tornado is not out of the question especially across the southern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos where low level shear is
greatest. Heavy rain will also accompany the storms and may cause
localized flash flooding.

The upper low will shift into the Plains Monday as a secondary upper
trough lags behind to our west. This will likely keep
temperatures near normal across the area into midweek. A few
showers will also be possible especially across the southern
portions of the region. Another storm system will begin to affect
the area late in the week into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  37  59  36 / 100  30   0   0
Carlsbad                       50  37  58  34 /  90  20   0  10
Dryden                         71  44  69  45 /  70  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  65  40  63  39 /  80  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 46  35  50  34 /  90  20   0  10
Hobbs                          40  33  56  31 / 100  20   0  10
Marfa                          58  29  58  30 /  70  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  38  60  35 / 100  20   0   0
Odessa                         53  37  60  35 / 100  10   0   0
Wink                           51  36  60  34 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

67/29
647
FXUS64 KMAF 151013
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
413 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Severe storms and heavy rain possible across the area today...

Quite a bit going on this morning with strong storms along the
Pecos River and freezing rain across the northern Permian Basin.
First I`ll take on the freezing rain. Isentropic upglide continues
within the cold air north of a front that is currently along the
Rio Grande. This cold air has been stubborn to erode and models
have handled it very poorly. The saving grace this morning is that
dewpoints and surface temperatures are much closer to freezing.
Also, rain is falling through a very thick warm layer aloft and
helping to warm temperatures even more. We didn`t see many issues
Saturday morning and don`t anticipate any today. That being said,
a few slick spots could still develop on bridges and overpasses
from Lamesa to Snyder. Dense fog has also lasted into the early
morning, but is beginning to let up as rain continues to
increase.

Next up is the severe weather threat. The upper low causing all the
fun this morning has begun to lift northeast and will move directly
over our area today. Strong storms and heavy rain are moving slowly
east across the Upper Trans Pecos this morning. This initial wave
of rain will move into the Permian Basin through the morning and
remain elevated with heavy rain being the main threat. Later this
morning, a surface low will develop near Pecos and a warm front
will lift north across the Permian Basin. This will bring moist,
unstable air into the Lower Trans Pecos and southern Permian
Basin. MLCAPE values near 1500 J/kg will be possible in this area
by early afternoon. Meanwhile, strong bulk shear will support
organized convection including supercells. Additional storms will
likely develop late this morning over the higher terrain along a
cold front. These storms will lift into the unstable airmass and
be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. An isolated
tornado is not out of the question especially across the southern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos where low level shear is
greatest. Heavy rain will also accompany the storms and may cause
localized flash flooding.

The upper low will shift into the Plains Monday as a secondary upper
trough lags behind to our west. This will likely keep
temperatures near normal across the area into midweek. A few
showers will also be possible especially across the southern
portions of the region. Another storm system will begin to affect
the area late in the week into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  37  59  36 / 100  30   0   0
Carlsbad                       50  37  58  34 /  90  20   0  10
Dryden                         71  44  69  45 /  70  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  65  40  63  39 /  80  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 46  35  50  34 /  90  20   0  10
Hobbs                          40  33  56  31 / 100  20   0  10
Marfa                          58  29  58  30 /  70  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  38  60  35 / 100  20   0   0
Odessa                         53  37  60  35 / 100  10   0   0
Wink                           51  36  60  34 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

67/29
063
FXUS64 KMAF 150447
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1047 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR to VLIFR conditions in low clouds/fog are expected to
continue areawide through early afternoon Sunday. Intermittent
light rain will continue overnight, with a couple isolated
thunderstorms that could affect PEQ and INK within the first
few hours of the forecast period. There is a better chance of
thunderstorms beginning Sunday morning across the west and moving
east through the afternoon, though have not included mention at
this time. Winds will be E/SE around 10-15kt with higher gusts
until Sunday afternoon when they shift to the SW, with gusts to
around 25kt possible. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR
areawide by 16/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 559 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017/

UPDATE...

Patchy dense fog is occurring across the Permian Basin and
Southeast New Mexico, with the dense fog expected to expand
through the evening hours. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued
for this evening through a portion of the overnight hours, though
an extension may be required if trends continue late tonight into
early Sunday. Visibility across Southeast New Mexico and the
Permian Basin could drop below 1/4 mile at times, thus anyone
planning to travel will need to be cautious and allow extra time
tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 137 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low over Baja this morning will swing east today... cross the
Rio Grande on Sunday... then move into OK by Monday morning.  A
secondary trough back to the west will develop a closed low over
Mexico that will move through Thursday ahead of a West Coast trough
that moves through Friday.

The front that had been hanging over the center of the area pushed
to the Rio Grande last night.  This front will return north Sunday.
Precipitation today ranged from light drizzle... to rain showers...
to freezing rain... to thunderstorms.  Have mention of rain/freezing
rain over the NE counties once again tonight as temps there should
remain below freezing.  QPF shows the heavier rain starting west and
moving across the area Sunday... have potential for locally heavy
rain and some flash flooding.  The upper low will push a Pacific
front through the area Sunday with wind coming around to the west.
A cold front moves down into the area late Monday.

Latest SPC day1 has a marginal risk of severe storms over the
western counties... this location is a shift westward from previous
days... but the sun is breaking out in this area and temps are
climbing.  Still have a slight risk severe eastern part of area
Sunday.  Also looking at an expected high wind event Sunday in the
Guadalupes as upper low swings over.  Will have a Pacific front
sweeping across with a west wind and a 700mb wind of 40kts.
Preparing to issue a High Wind Warning for tomorrow from 18z to 06z.

Have widespread over the area and fog north today... cold with
afternoon temps in the 30s for much of the area but guidance tries
warming temps overnight.  Current lows tonight under guidance which
seems right.  Temperatures should return to near normal Sunday with
next week looking mild with temperatures warming into the 60s

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  56  38  60 /  60  80  30   0
Carlsbad                       35  53  37  59 /  80  80  20  10
Dryden                         60  70  44  69 /  50  60  10   0
Fort Stockton                  46  66  41  64 /  50  70  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  48  34  50 /  70  80  20  10
Hobbs                          35  52  33  57 /  80  90  20   0
Marfa                          42  56  27  59 /  50  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           39  57  38  61 /  60  80  20   0
Odessa                         39  56  38  61 /  60  80  20   0
Wink                           41  58  36  60 /  70  80  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 AM MST Sunday for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM MST Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ Sunday for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Reagan-
     Scurry-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM MST Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
805
FXUS64 KMAF 142359
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
559 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.UPDATE...

Patchy dense fog is occurring across the Permian Basin and
Southeast New Mexico, with the dense fog expected to expand
through the evening hours. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued
for this evening through a portion of the overnight hours, though
an extension may be required if trends continue late tonight into
early Sunday. Visibility across Southeast New Mexico and the
Permian Basin could drop below 1/4 mile at times, thus anyone
planning to travel will need to be cautious and allow extra time
tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR/LIFR conditions in low stratus/fog prevail areawide, with
VLIFR currently affecting HOB. Do not expect improvement through
Sunday morning, with intermittent light rain affecting all
terminals. While there could be a thunderstorm or two through
tonight, confidence was too low to include mention. A better
chance of thunderstorms is expected Sunday, beginning across the
west during the morning and moving eastward through the afternoon,
though have not included TSRA mention at this time due to
uncertainty in timing/location. Winds will vary from NE to SE
around 10-15kt with higher gusts through much of the period,
though after 18Z Sunday, winds are expected to shift to the SW,
remaining gusty. A return to MVFR and possibly VFR conditions is
expected late in the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 137 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low over Baja this morning will swing east today... cross the
Rio Grande on Sunday... then move into OK by Monday morning.  A
secondary trough back to the west will develop a closed low over
Mexico that will move through Thursday ahead of a West Coast trough
that moves through Friday.

The front that had been hanging over the center of the area pushed
to the Rio Grande last night.  This front will return north Sunday.
Precipitation today ranged from light drizzle... to rain showers...
to freezing rain... to thunderstorms.  Have mention of rain/freezing
rain over the NE counties once again tonight as temps there should
remain below freezing.  QPF shows the heavier rain starting west and
moving across the area Sunday... have potential for locally heavy
rain and some flash flooding.  The upper low will push a Pacific
front through the area Sunday with wind coming around to the west.
A cold front moves down into the area late Monday.

Latest SPC day1 has a marginal risk of severe storms over the
western counties... this location is a shift westward from previous
days... but the sun is breaking out in this area and temps are
climbing.  Still have a slight risk severe eastern part of area
Sunday.  Also looking at an expected high wind event Sunday in the
Guadalupes as upper low swings over.  Will have a Pacific front
sweeping across with a west wind and a 700mb wind of 40kts.
Preparing to issue a High Wind Warning for tomorrow from 18z to 06z.

Have widespread over the area and fog north today... cold with
afternoon temps in the 30s for much of the area but guidance tries
warming temps overnight.  Current lows tonight under guidance which
seems right.  Temperatures should return to near normal Sunday with
next week looking mild with temperatures warming into the 60s

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  56  38  60 /  60  80  30   0
Carlsbad                       35  53  37  59 /  80  80  20  10
Dryden                         60  70  44  69 /  50  60  10   0
Fort Stockton                  46  66  41  64 /  50  70  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  48  34  50 /  70  80  20  10
Hobbs                          35  52  33  57 /  80  90  20   0
Marfa                          42  56  27  59 /  50  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           39  57  38  61 /  60  80  20   0
Odessa                         39  56  38  61 /  60  80  20   0
Wink                           41  58  36  60 /  70  80  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 AM MST Sunday for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM MST Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ Sunday for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Reagan-
     Scurry-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM MST Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
060
FXUS64 KMAF 141937
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
137 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low over Baja this morning will swing east today... cross the
Rio Grande on Sunday... then move into OK by Monday morning.  A
secondary trough back to the west will develop a closed low over
Mexico that will move through Thursday ahead of a West Coast trough
that moves through Friday.

The front that had been hanging over the center of the area pushed
to the Rio Grande last night.  This front will return north Sunday.
Precipitation today ranged from light drizzle... to rain showers...
to freezing rain... to thunderstorms.  Have mention of rain/freezing
rain over the NE counties once again tonight as temps there should
remain below freezing.  QPF shows the heavier rain starting west and
moving across the area Sunday... have potential for locally heavy
rain and some flash flooding.  The upper low will push a Pacific
front through the area Sunday with wind coming around to the west.
A cold front moves down into the area late Monday.

Latest SPC day1 has a marginal risk of severe storms over the
western counties... this location is a shift westward from previous
days... but the sun is breaking out in this area and temps are
climbing.  Still have a slight risk severe eastern part of area
Sunday.  Also looking at an expected high wind event Sunday in the
Guadalupes as upper low swings over.  Will have a Pacific front
sweeping across with a west wind and a 700mb wind of 40kts.
Preparing to issue a High Wind Warning for tomorrow from 18z to 06z.

Have widespread over the area and fog north today... cold with
afternoon temps in the 30s for much of the area but guidance tries
warming temps overnight.  Current lows tonight under guidance which
seems right.  Temperatures should return to near normal Sunday with
next week looking mild with temperatures warming into the 60s

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  56  38  60 /  60  80  30   0
Carlsbad                       35  53  37  59 /  80  80  20  10
Dryden                         60  70  44  69 /  50  60  10   0
Fort Stockton                  46  66  41  64 /  50  70  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  48  34  50 /  70  80  20  10
Hobbs                          35  52  33  57 /  80  90  20   0
Marfa                          42  56  27  59 /  50  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           39  57  38  61 /  60  80  20   0
Odessa                         39  56  38  61 /  60  80  20   0
Wink                           41  58  36  60 /  70  80  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM MST Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM MST Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

05/72
856
FXUS64 KMAF 141724
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1124 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR and occasional LIFR conditions are expected across southwest
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals through tonight. Ceilings
and visibility will begin to improve from west to east as a
Pacific cold front enters southeast New Mexico Sunday morning.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible through Saturday
morning with mainly light rain through tonight. Thunderstorms will
increase Saturday morning.

Winds will be generally northeast to east at less than 12 knots
through tonight. Southeast winds will begin to increase at FST
this evening and other terminals after 12Z. Wind gusts to 25 knots
are possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 507 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

LIFR AND VLIFR ceilings will affect most area terminals through
14/18Z, with LIFR conditions likely persisting through the
afternoon.  In addition, light rain and fog will make visibility
just as low at most terminals through the morning.  Thunderstorms
will be possible at all area terminals today and tonight. Will
not include mention at any specific terminal, but the lower
ceiling and visibility may be temporarily interrupted by TSRA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017/

.Freezing rain falling across parts of the area this morning
and then a severe weather threat tonight and Sunday...

Looking at a very complicated event unfolding across the area this
morning. Freezing rain is likely forming a glaze on elevated
surfaces across the northeastern portion of the Permian Basin.
Hi- res models like the HRRR and NAM 4KM are handling the current
situation the best. These models show temperatures hovering
around or just below freezing through this morning with periodic
showers. We issued a Freezing Rain Advisory earlier this morning
and will keep it going through Noon today. By that time it
appears temperatures should rise above freezing and precipitation
should transition to all rain.

Models continue to handle the cold air poorly with the GFS being the
furthest off. Will mostly stick with the NAM and the higher
resolution models through much of the weekend. The well advertised
upper low has shifted south into northern Baja this morning and
will move east today. Increasing SW flow aloft ahead of the
system and isentropic lift over the cold airmass will help generate
showers and a few thunderstorms later today. Temperatures will
struggle again this afternoon and will not rise much from where they
are right now. Unfortunately the hi-res models have temperatures
falling to near freezing again tonight across the same areas as
this morning. Will continue to monitor, but we believe as heavier
rain develops and falls through very warm air aloft, surface
temperatures will actually warm.

Attention then turns to the severe weather potential as the upper
system begins to lift north and near our region. A strong LLJ will
develop later tonight as a mid level speed max moves across the Rio
Grande. Western portions of the region will be near the exit region
of this jet helping to increase ascent. It doesn`t matter much
whether storms become surface based or are elevated, the
potential will be there for large hail and gusty winds.
Thunderstorms will increase during the day Sunday as the upper low
moves directly over the region. A 50 kt LLJ will maintain rich
Gulf moisture, but clouds and precip will limit destabilization.
The cold front that has settled across the Rio Grande will likely
begin to lift north as a warm front Sunday. SBCAPE values will near
1500 J/kg south of the front while at the same time the exit
region of a mid level jet helps enhance large-scale ascent. Deep
layer shear will also contribute to an environment that would
support large hail and damaging winds. Storm mode will likely
become linear as convection moves east across the CWA. Heavy rain
may also cause localized flooding as PWAT values rise to near
record levels for mid January.

The upper low shifts into the Plains early next week, but an upper
trough is expected to lag behind to our west. This will keep
temperatures near normal while dry air also filters in from the
northwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  57  39  60 /  60  80  30   0
Carlsbad                       37  54  38  58 /  80  80  20  10
Dryden                         60  71  44  69 /  50  60  10   0
Fort Stockton                  47  63  41  64 /  50  70  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  47  34  50 /  70  80  20  10
Hobbs                          35  52  33  56 /  80  90  20   0
Marfa                          45  56  29  58 /  50  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           39  58  40  60 /  60  80  20   0
Odessa                         39  57  40  60 /  60  80  20   0
Wink                           41  59  36  60 /  70  80  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for Borden-Dawson-
     Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Scurry.

     Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for Borden-Howard-
     Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$

99/99/05
736
FXUS64 KMAF 141107
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
507 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

LIFR AND VLIFR ceilings will affect most area terminals through
14/18Z, with LIFR conditions likely persisting through the
afternoon.  In addition, light rain and fog will make visibility
just as low at most terminals through the morning.  Thunderstorms
will be possible at all area terminals today and tonight. Will
not include mention at any specific terminal, but the lower
ceiling and visibility may be temporarily interrupted by TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017/

..Freezing rain falling across parts of the area this morning
and then a severe weather threat tonight and Sunday...

Looking at a very complicated event unfolding across the area this
morning. Freezing rain is likely forming a glaze on elevated
surfaces across the northeastern portion of the Permian Basin.
Hi- res models like the HRRR and NAM 4KM are handling the current
situation the best. These models show temperatures hovering
around or just below freezing through this morning with periodic
showers. We issued a Freezing Rain Advisory earlier this morning
and will keep it going through Noon today. By that time it
appears temperatures should rise above freezing and precipitation
should transition to all rain.

Models continue to handle the cold air poorly with the GFS being the
furthest off. Will mostly stick with the NAM and the higher
resolution models through much of the weekend. The well advertised
upper low has shifted south into northern Baja this morning and
will move east today. Increasing SW flow aloft ahead of the
system and isentropic lift over the cold airmass will help generate
showers and a few thunderstorms later today. Temperatures will
struggle again this afternoon and will not rise much from where they
are right now. Unfortunately the hi-res models have temperatures
falling to near freezing again tonight across the same areas as
this morning. Will continue to monitor, but we believe as heavier
rain develops and falls through very warm air aloft, surface
temperatures will actually warm.

Attention then turns to the severe weather potential as the upper
system begins to lift north and near our region. A strong LLJ will
develop later tonight as a mid level speed max moves across the Rio
Grande. Western portions of the region will be near the exit region
of this jet helping to increase ascent. It doesn`t matter much
whether storms become surface based or are elevated, the
potential will be there for large hail and gusty winds.
Thunderstorms will increase during the day Sunday as the upper low
moves directly over the region. A 50 kt LLJ will maintain rich
Gulf moisture, but clouds and precip will limit destabilization.
The cold front that has settled across the Rio Grande will likely
begin to lift north as a warm front Sunday. SBCAPE values will near
1500 J/kg south of the front while at the same time the exit
region of a mid level jet helps enhance large-scale ascent. Deep
layer shear will also contribute to an environment that would
support large hail and damaging winds. Storm mode will likely
become linear as convection moves east across the CWA. Heavy rain
may also cause localized flooding as PWAT values rise to near
record levels for mid January.

The upper low shifts into the Plains early next week, but an upper
trough is expected to lag behind to our west. This will keep
temperatures near normal while dry air also filters in from the
northwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     40  37  57  39 /  70  60  80  30
Carlsbad                       45  37  54  38 /  60  80  80  20
Dryden                         68  60  71  44 /  50  50  60  10
Fort Stockton                  47  47  63  41 /  60  50  70  10
Guadalupe Pass                 43  36  47  34 /  50  70  80  20
Hobbs                          42  35  52  33 /  70  80  90  20
Marfa                          59  45  56  29 /  50  50  60  10
Midland Intl Airport           41  39  58  40 /  70  60  80  20
Odessa                         40  39  57  40 /  70  60  80  20
Wink                           44  41  59  36 /  70  70  80  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for Borden-Dawson-
     Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$

67/29
175
FXUS64 KMAF 141020
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
420 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Freezing rain falling across parts of the area this morning
and then a severe weather threat tonight and Sunday...

Looking at a very complicated event unfolding across the area this
morning. Freezing rain is likely forming a glaze on elevated
surfaces across the northeastern portion of the Permian Basin.
Hi- res models like the HRRR and NAM 4KM are handling the current
situation the best. These models show temperatures hovering
around or just below freezing through this morning with periodic
showers. We issued a Freezing Rain Advisory earlier this morning
and will keep it going through Noon today. By that time it
appears temperatures should rise above freezing and precipitation
should transition to all rain.

Models continue to handle the cold air poorly with the GFS being the
furthest off. Will mostly stick with the NAM and the higher
resolution models through much of the weekend. The well advertised
upper low has shifted south into northern Baja this morning and
will move east today. Increasing SW flow aloft ahead of the
system and isentropic lift over the cold airmass will help generate
showers and a few thunderstorms later today. Temperatures will
struggle again this afternoon and will not rise much from where they
are right now. Unfortunately the hi-res models have temperatures
falling to near freezing again tonight across the same areas as
this morning. Will continue to monitor, but we believe as heavier
rain develops and falls through very warm air aloft, surface
temperatures will actually warm.

Attention then turns to the severe weather potential as the upper
system begins to lift north and near our region. A strong LLJ will
develop later tonight as a mid level speed max moves across the Rio
Grande. Western portions of the region will be near the exit region
of this jet helping to increase ascent. It doesn`t matter much
whether storms become surface based or are elevated, the
potential will be there for large hail and gusty winds.
Thunderstorms will increase during the day Sunday as the upper low
moves directly over the region. A 50 kt LLJ will maintain rich
Gulf moisture, but clouds and precip will limit destabilization.
The cold front that has settled across the Rio Grande will likely
begin to lift north as a warm front Sunday. SBCAPE values will near
1500 J/kg south of the front while at the same time the exit
region of a mid level jet helps enhance large-scale ascent. Deep
layer shear will also contribute to an environment that would
support large hail and damaging winds. Storm mode will likely
become linear as convection moves east across the CWA. Heavy rain
may also cause localized flooding as PWAT values rise to near
record levels for mid January.

The upper low shifts into the Plains early next week, but an upper
trough is expected to lag behind to our west. This will keep
temperatures near normal while dry air also filters in from the
northwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     40  37  57  39 /  70  60  80  30
Carlsbad                       45  37  54  38 /  60  80  80  20
Dryden                         68  60  71  44 /  50  50  60  10
Fort Stockton                  47  47  63  41 /  60  50  70  10
Guadalupe Pass                 43  36  47  34 /  50  70  80  20
Hobbs                          42  35  52  33 /  70  80  90  20
Marfa                          59  45  56  29 /  50  50  60  10
Midland Intl Airport           41  39  58  40 /  70  60  80  20
Odessa                         40  39  57  40 /  70  60  80  20
Wink                           44  41  59  36 /  70  70  80  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for Borden-Dawson-
     Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$

67/29
436
FXUS64 KMAF 140641
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1241 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.UPDATE...

Upglide continues to increase over the region early this morning
with light rain developing over the Permian Basin.  Boundary layer
temperatures are above freezing, however surface temperatures along
and north of a Tarzan to Snyder line have fallen below freezing in
many places.  Expect surface temperatures to drop to freezing or
below as far south as a Tarzan to Big Spring to Colorado City
through late tonight as light rain increases in these areas, and wet
bulbing occurs with surface dewpoints in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Have decided to issue a Freezing Rain Advisory for Dawson and
Martin, eastward to Scurry and Mitchell counties, which will last
until 14/18Z.  Although the ground is warm, a thin layer of ice
could accumulate on power lines, trees, and bridges and
overpasses.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1054 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Challenging flight conditions will continue the next 24 hours.
MVFR and IFR conditions in low clouds and fog are affecting all
terminals, with deterioration to LIFR expected late tonight
through much of Saturday morning for MAF, INK, HOB, and PEQ. Light
rain is expected to develop by Saturday morning for all but
possibly PEQ and FST, and while isolated thunderstorms are
possible on Saturday areawide, have not included mention at this
time. Winds will generally be E/NE around 10-15KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 148 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Strong cut off low over CA will move east and bring precipitation to
the region.  This low will swing across Baja on Saturday and
Northern Mexico into TX on Sunday.  By Monday the low moves into
OK/KS.  A secondary low may move near the area midweek.

A cold front moved into the area yesterday and has become stationary
near the Pecos River with cloud cover over most of the region.
Behind the front it is cold with a NE wind while much warmer and
generally a south wind ahead of it.  Lows tonight should be in the
30s north and 50s south... warms a little tomorrow to highs in the
40s north with 60s and 70s south.  This front may become focus for
future convection before slowly lifting north.  Even warmer on
Sunday.

Rain chances looking good and increasing through the weekend.
Thunderstorms enter the forecast Saturday and continue Sunday.
Will continue mention of a little mixed precip NE Permian Basin
Saturday morning but not expecting much.  On Saturday do have a
marginal risk of severe along the TX/NM border and a slight risk
severe on Sunday from ODO eastward.  Locally heavy rain will be also
possible mainly Saturday night and Sunday. Drys out early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     48  42  57  40 /  60  60  80  20
Carlsbad                       49  43  54  40 /  60  70  70  10
Dryden                         72  58  69  44 /  40  50  60  10
Fort Stockton                  60  50  65  42 /  50  50  70  10
Guadalupe Pass                 55  43  48  34 /  40  70  70  10
Hobbs                          45  40  53  35 /  70  80  80  20
Marfa                          61  38  53  30 /  30  50  60  10
Midland Intl Airport           49  45  59  40 /  60  60  80  10
Odessa                         49  47  57  40 /  70  60  80  10
Wink                           52  46  59  36 /  60  70  70  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for Borden-Dawson-
     Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$

29
625
FXUS64 KMAF 140454
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1054 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Challenging flight conditions will continue the next 24 hours.
MVFR and IFR conditions in low clouds and fog are affecting all
terminals, with deterioration to LIFR expected late tonight
through much of Saturday morning for MAF, INK, HOB, and PEQ. Light
rain is expected to develop by Saturday morning for all but
possibly PEQ and FST, and while isolated thunderstorms are
possible on Saturday areawide, have not included mention at this
time. Winds will generally be E/NE around 10-15KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 148 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Strong cut off low over CA will move east and bring precipitation to
the region.  This low will swing across Baja on Saturday and
Northern Mexico into TX on Sunday.  By Monday the low moves into
OK/KS.  A secondary low may move near the area midweek.

A cold front moved into the area yesterday and has become stationary
near the Pecos River with cloud cover over most of the region.
Behind the front it is cold with a NE wind while much warmer and
generally a south wind ahead of it.  Lows tonight should be in the
30s north and 50s south... warms a little tomorrow to highs in the
40s north with 60s and 70s south.  This front may become focus for
future convection before slowly lifting north.  Even warmer on
Sunday.

Rain chances looking good and increasing through the weekend.
Thunderstorms enter the forecast Saturday and continue Sunday.
Will continue mention of a little mixed precip NE Permian Basin
Saturday morning but not expecting much.  On Saturday do have a
marginal risk of severe along the TX/NM border and a slight risk
severe on Sunday from ODO eastward.  Locally heavy rain will be also
possible mainly Saturday night and Sunday. Drys out early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     33  48  42  57 /  60  60  60  80
Carlsbad                       39  49  43  54 /  40  60  70  70
Dryden                         61  72  58  69 /  50  40  50  60
Fort Stockton                  51  60  50  65 /  40  50  50  70
Guadalupe Pass                 42  55  43  48 /  30  40  70  70
Hobbs                          34  45  40  53 /  50  70  80  80
Marfa                          41  61  38  53 /  20  30  50  60
Midland Intl Airport           36  49  45  59 /  60  60  60  80
Odessa                         37  49  47  57 /  50  70  60  80
Wink                           38  52  46  59 /  40  60  70  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
936
FXUS64 KMAF 132354 AAE
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
554 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Despite PEQ, FST, and INK being VFR at issuance, expect quick
deterioration to MVFR after sunset, and IFR by around 03-06Z.
Thereafter, IFR conditions are expected to prevail areawide, with
E/NE winds around 12kt. LIFR conditions are also possible after
06Z tonight through Saturday morning, particularly at CNM, HOB,
INK, and MAF. Rain/drizzle is possible through the period, with
isolated thunderstorms possible on Saturday afternoon. However,
have not included mention of TSRA at this time due to low
confidence/timing uncertainties that far out.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 148 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Strong cut off low over CA will move east and bring precipitation to
the region.  This low will swing across Baja on Saturday and
Northern Mexico into TX on Sunday.  By Monday the low moves into
OK/KS.  A secondary low may move near the area midweek.

A cold front moved into the area yesterday and has become stationary
near the Pecos River with cloud cover over most of the region.
Behind the front it is cold with a NE wind while much warmer and
generally a south wind ahead of it.  Lows tonight should be in the
30s north and 50s south... warms a little tomorrow to highs in the
40s north with 60s and 70s south.  This front may become focus for
future convection before slowly lifting north.  Even warmer on
Sunday.

Rain chances looking good and increasing through the weekend.
Thunderstorms enter the forecast Saturday and continue Sunday.
Will continue mention of a little mixed precip NE Permian Basin
Saturday morning but not expecting much.  On Saturday do have a
marginal risk of severe along the TX/NM border and a slight risk
severe on Sunday from ODO eastward.  Locally heavy rain will be also
possible mainly Saturday night and Sunday. Drys out early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     33  48  42  57 /  60  60  60  80
Carlsbad                       39  49  43  54 /  40  60  70  70
Dryden                         61  72  58  69 /  50  40  50  60
Fort Stockton                  51  60  50  65 /  40  50  50  70
Guadalupe Pass                 42  55  43  48 /  30  40  70  70
Hobbs                          34  45  40  53 /  50  70  80  80
Marfa                          41  61  38  53 /  20  30  50  60
Midland Intl Airport           36  49  45  59 /  60  60  60  80
Odessa                         37  49  47  57 /  50  70  60  80
Wink                           38  52  46  59 /  40  60  70  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
330
FXUS64 KMAF 131948
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
148 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Strong cut off low over CA will move east and bring precipitation to
the region.  This low will swing across Baja on Saturday and
Northern Mexico into TX on Sunday.  By Monday the low moves into
OK/KS.  A secondary low may move near the area midweek.

A cold front moved into the area yesterday and has become stationary
near the Pecos River with cloud cover over most of the region.
Behind the front it is cold with a NE wind while much warmer and
generally a south wind ahead of it.  Lows tonight should be in the
30s north and 50s south... warms a little tomorrow to highs in the
40s north with 60s and 70s south.  This front may become focus for
future convection before slowly lifting north.  Even warmer on
Sunday.

Rain chances looking good and increasing through the weekend.
Thunderstorms enter the forecast Saturday and continue Sunday.
Will continue mention of a little mixed precip NE Permian Basin
Saturday morning but not expecting much.  On Saturday do have a
marginal risk of severe along the TX/NM border and a slight risk
severe on Sunday from ODO eastward.  Locally heavy rain will be also
possible mainly Saturday night and Sunday. Drys out early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     33  48  42  57 /  60  60  60  80
Carlsbad                       39  49  43  54 /  40  60  70  70
Dryden                         61  72  58  69 /  50  40  50  60
Fort Stockton                  51  60  50  65 /  40  50  50  70
Guadalupe Pass                 42  55  43  48 /  30  40  70  70
Hobbs                          34  45  40  53 /  50  70  80  80
Marfa                          41  61  38  53 /  20  30  50  60
Midland Intl Airport           36  49  45  59 /  60  60  60  80
Odessa                         37  49  47  57 /  50  70  60  80
Wink                           38  52  46  59 /  40  60  70  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
172
FXUS64 KMAF 131716
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1116 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

Widespread MVFR cigs expected to persist today with a cold front
stalled near a CNM, PEQ, FST line. Most terminal have a NE wind and
should see FST veer to the E/NE over the next few hours. Flight
conditions are expected to deteriorate after 14/00Z with IFR/LIFR
cigs/vis persisting through Saturday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

.Major storm expected to impact the region today through the
weekend with heavy rain and strong storms...

Rich Gulf moisture has spread west across the area early this
morning as a cold front also moves slowly south over the Permian
Basin. Low clouds have developed along with patchy drizzle along
and behind the front. Temperatures have fallen into the mid 30`s
across the northern Permian Basin and will continue their downward
trend through the morning given moderate CAA. This could lead to
the possibility of light freezing rain mixing in across these
locations as temperatures reach 32 degrees. Impacts are still
expected to remain minimal due to a warm ground, but there could
be a few slick spots on bridges and overpasses from Lamesa to
Snyder. Temperatures in these locations should warm above freezing
around Noon today, changing everything back into a cold rain. The
front will not make much headway today and likely stall along the
Pecos River this afternoon. North of the front, temperatures will
struggle to rise staying mainly in the 30`s and 40`s. South of
the boundary, expect another warm day with temperatures well above
normal. Isentropic lift will contribute to light rain and drizzle
today before a large storm system to our west brings more
substantial precipitation this weekend.

An intense upper low will dig south into N. Mexico today and begin
moving east Saturday. Deep southwesterly flow aloft will pull
moisture in off the Pacific while strong southeast winds bring in
Gulf moisture at the surface. The aforementioned front looks to
settle along the Pecos River for the good part of the weekend. This
boundary will act to focus shower and thunderstorm development
through the day Saturday before it begins to lift north through the
area as a warm front. Similar to this morning, temperatures will
fall to near freezing tonight and early Saturday morning over the
far northern Permian Basin. Even though temperatures may be near
freezing at the surface, a thick warm layer aloft will exist.
Precipitation falling through this layer will act to help warm the
surface so much of it may fall as just a cold rain. Will highlight
the possibility of slick spots on bridges and overpasses in the HWO.
Even though it will be another chilly day north of the front,
temperatures should be above freezing much of the day.

The upper low then begins to lift northeast early Sunday. As it does
so, large scale ascent will increase and the cold front will move
back north across the area as a warm front. The atmosphere will
become moderately unstable with MUCAPE values 500-1000 J/kg. Given
the track of the upper trough, a quasi-linear line of storms is
expected to move across the area Sunday. Damaging winds are the most
likely threat with these storms, but large hail, heavy rain, and
localized flooding will also be a possibility.

Drier conditions with near normal temperatures are expected as the
upper system lifts into the Plains early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     43  35  48  45 /  40  60  60  60
Carlsbad                       54  41  50  45 /  20  40  50  70
Dryden                         72  61  72  58 /  20  40  40  50
Fort Stockton                  68  51  62  51 /  20  40  50  50
Guadalupe Pass                 60  44  55  43 /  10  30  40  70
Hobbs                          45  35  45  40 /  20  50  60  80
Marfa                          70  41  65  41 /  10  20  30  50
Midland Intl Airport           47  37  49  47 /  30  50  60  60
Odessa                         48  38  49  47 /  30  50  60  60
Wink                           55  39  52  46 /  20  40  50  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
269
FXUS64 KMAF 131100
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
500 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect MVFR ceilings to remain over most area terminals today and
tonight.  IFR ceilings will be more sporadic this morning and
affect KCNM, KPEQ and KFST, along with MVFR visibility in fog.
Conditions are expected to deteriorate tonight, with ceilings
dropping to IFR after 14/00Z, and visibility decreasing to at
least MVFR after 14/06Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

..Major storm expected to impact the region today through the
weekend with heavy rain and strong storms...

Rich Gulf moisture has spread west across the area early this
morning as a cold front also moves slowly south over the Permian
Basin. Low clouds have developed along with patchy drizzle along
and behind the front. Temperatures have fallen into the mid 30`s
across the northern Permian Basin and will continue their downward
trend through the morning given moderate CAA. This could lead to
the possibility of light freezing rain mixing in across these
locations as temperatures reach 32 degrees. Impacts are still
expected to remain minimal due to a warm ground, but there could
be a few slick spots on bridges and overpasses from Lamesa to
Snyder. Temperatures in these locations should warm above freezing
around Noon today, changing everything back into a cold rain. The
front will not make much headway today and likely stall along the
Pecos River this afternoon. North of the front, temperatures will
struggle to rise staying mainly in the 30`s and 40`s. South of
the boundary, expect another warm day with temperatures well above
normal. Isentropic lift will contribute to light rain and drizzle
today before a large storm system to our west brings more
substantial precipitation this weekend.

An intense upper low will dig south into N. Mexico today and begin
moving east Saturday. Deep southwesterly flow aloft will pull
moisture in off the Pacific while strong southeast winds bring in
Gulf moisture at the surface. The aforementioned front looks to
settle along the Pecos River for the good part of the weekend. This
boundary will act to focus shower and thunderstorm development
through the day Saturday before it begins to lift north through the
area as a warm front. Similar to this morning, temperatures will
fall to near freezing tonight and early Saturday morning over the
far northern Permian Basin. Even though temperatures may be near
freezing at the surface, a thick warm layer aloft will exist.
Precipitation falling through this layer will act to help warm the
surface so much of it may fall as just a cold rain. Will highlight
the possibility of slick spots on bridges and overpasses in the HWO.
Even though it will be another chilly day north of the front,
temperatures should be above freezing much of the day.

The upper low then begins to lift northeast early Sunday. As it does
so, large scale ascent will increase and the cold front will move
back north across the area as a warm front. The atmosphere will
become moderately unstable with MUCAPE values 500-1000 J/kg. Given
the track of the upper trough, a quasi-linear line of storms is
expected to move across the area Sunday. Damaging winds are the most
likely threat with these storms, but large hail, heavy rain, and
localized flooding will also be a possibility.

Drier conditions with near normal temperatures are expected as the
upper system lifts into the Plains early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     43  35  48  45 /  40  60  60  60
Carlsbad                       54  41  50  45 /  20  40  50  70
Dryden                         72  61  72  58 /  20  40  40  50
Fort Stockton                  68  51  62  51 /  20  40  50  50
Guadalupe Pass                 60  44  55  43 /  10  30  40  70
Hobbs                          45  35  45  40 /  20  50  60  80
Marfa                          70  41  65  41 /  10  20  30  50
Midland Intl Airport           47  37  49  47 /  30  50  60  60
Odessa                         48  38  49  47 /  30  50  60  60
Wink                           55  39  52  46 /  20  40  50  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
431
FXUS64 KMAF 131004
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
404 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Major storm expected to impact the region today through the
weekend with heavy rain and strong storms...

Rich Gulf moisture has spread west across the area early this
morning as a cold front also moves slowly south over the Permian
Basin. Low clouds have developed along with patchy drizzle along
and behind the front. Temperatures have fallen into the mid 30`s
across the northern Permian Basin and will continue their downward
trend through the morning given moderate CAA. This could lead to
the possibility of light freezing rain mixing in across these
locations as temperatures reach 32 degrees. Impacts are still
expected to remain minimal due to a warm ground, but there could
be a few slick spots on bridges and overpasses from Lamesa to
Snyder. Temperatures in these locations should warm above freezing
around Noon today, changing everything back into a cold rain. The
front will not make much headway today and likely stall along the
Pecos River this afternoon. North of the front, temperatures will
struggle to rise staying mainly in the 30`s and 40`s. South of
the boundary, expect another warm day with temperatures well above
normal. Isentropic lift will contribute to light rain and drizzle
today before a large storm system to our west brings more
substantial precipitation this weekend.

An intense upper low will dig south into N. Mexico today and begin
moving east Saturday. Deep southwesterly flow aloft will pull
moisture in off the Pacific while strong southeast winds bring in
Gulf moisture at the surface. The aforementioned front looks to
settle along the Pecos River for the good part of the weekend. This
boundary will act to focus shower and thunderstorm development
through the day Saturday before it begins to lift north through the
area as a warm front. Similar to this morning, temperatures will
fall to near freezing tonight and early Saturday morning over the
far northern Permian Basin. Even though temperatures may be near
freezing at the surface, a thick warm layer aloft will exist.
Precipitation falling through this layer will act to help warm the
surface so much of it may fall as just a cold rain. Will highlight
the possibility of slick spots on bridges and overpasses in the HWO.
Even though it will be another chilly day north of the front,
temperatures should be above freezing much of the day.

The upper low then begins to lift northeast early Sunday. As it does
so, large scale ascent will increase and the cold front will move
back north across the area as a warm front. The atmosphere will
become moderately unstable with MUCAPE values 500-1000 J/kg. Given
the track of the upper trough, a quasi-linear line of storms is
expected to move across the area Sunday. Damaging winds are the most
likely threat with these storms, but large hail, heavy rain, and
localized flooding will also be a possibility.

Drier conditions with near normal temperatures are expected as the
upper system lifts into the Plains early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     43  35  48  45 /  40  60  60  60
Carlsbad                       54  41  50  45 /  20  40  50  70
Dryden                         72  61  72  58 /  20  40  40  50
Fort Stockton                  68  51  62  51 /  20  40  50  50
Guadalupe Pass                 60  44  55  43 /  10  30  40  70
Hobbs                          45  35  45  40 /  20  50  60  80
Marfa                          70  41  65  41 /  10  20  30  50
Midland Intl Airport           47  37  49  47 /  30  50  60  60
Odessa                         48  38  49  47 /  30  50  60  60
Wink                           55  39  52  46 /  20  40  50  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
197
FXUS64 KMAF 130455
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1055 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR stratus and fog is currently developing from east to west,
with MVFR conditions already observedat MAF. Conditions are
expected to continue to deteriorate through tonight, with IFR
conditions expected to develop by late tonight/early Friday
morning. Light rain is also possible at MAF around 12Z, with low-
end MVFR/IFR conditions expected to continue through the day
Friday. LIFR conditions will be possible at most terminals after
14/00Z. Winds will vary between NE/SE around 12KT through the
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 208 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough over the West coast will develop into a closed low and
dig south to Mexico Friday before swinging east.  This low will move
over Northern Mexico Saturday... swinging across the area Sunday and
lifting northward.  This low will bring cooler wx and a chance of
precipitation to the area.  A secondary lobe of the trough will dig
south behind it Monday and Tuesday.

A cold front will backdoor into region tonight but should hang up east
to west across the center of the area.  The wind will come around to
the E/NE along and behind the front.  This means southern CWA will
remain much warmer.  Had record highs yesterday in the 80s... MAF
recorded a high of 83 yesterday.  Friday and Saturday highs in the 30s
to 50s north of the Pecos River with 60s and 70s south of it.  Lows
mainly in the 30s and 40s.  The next front moves through Monday.

Precip chances begin this evening and will be on the increase through
the weekend.  Tonight and Friday low chance of light rain or rainshower
over the eastern half of the area.  May see a mix of rain/freezing rain
develop over portions of the NE Permian Basin early Friday and Saturday
mornings.  Rain chances increase Friday night.  By Saturday add
Thunderstorms to the mix as good moisture... frontal boundary... and
upper lift combine.  Severe storms possible Saturday/Saturday night
with SPC placing a marginal risk along the TX/NM border.  Storms
possible again Sunday and could see redevelopment of severe wx farther
east.  Will also have potential for some good rainfall Saturday and
Sunday so flash flooding will also be a concern.  Not much expected
Monday with a better chance of showers again on Tuesday.  Have
increased pops slightly tonight for the east and areawide on
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     36  44  33  46 /  30  30  50  60
Carlsbad                       41  53  37  49 /  10  10  40  50
Dryden                         54  70  60  70 /  10  20  40  40
Fort Stockton                  47  64  48  61 /  10  10  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 47  57  39  53 /   0  10  30  30
Hobbs                          37  47  33  45 /  10  20  50  60
Marfa                          33  69  41  62 /  10   0  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           40  49  34  47 /  20  30  50  50
Odessa                         41  50  34  48 /  20  30  50  50
Wink                           44  53  37  51 /  10  20  40  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
667
FXUS64 KMAF 122322
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
522 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail areawide at issuance, however deteriorating
conditions are expected this evening. MVFR stratus is expected to
overspread the area from east to west, with conditions becoming
IFR after 06Z at MAF, INK, and HOB. IFR conditions are also
possible late tonight/Friday morning at CNM, PEQ, and FST. MAF
could see some light rain around 12Z, though low-end MVFR or IFR
conditions look to continue at all sites through the end of the
period. Winds will vary between NE and SE around 12kt or less.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 208 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough over the West coast will develop into a closed low and
dig south to Mexico Friday before swinging east.  This low will move
over Northern Mexico Saturday... swinging across the area Sunday and
lifting northward.  This low will bring cooler wx and a chance of
precipitation to the area.  A secondary lobe of the trough will dig
south behind it Monday and Tuesday.

A cold front will backdoor into region tonight but should hang up east
to west across the center of the area.  The wind will come around to
the E/NE along and behind the front.  This means southern CWA will
remain much warmer.  Had record highs yesterday in the 80s... MAF
recorded a high of 83 yesterday.  Friday and Saturday highs in the 30s
to 50s north of the Pecos River with 60s and 70s south of it.  Lows
mainly in the 30s and 40s.  The next front moves through Monday.

Precip chances begin this evening and will be on the increase through
the weekend.  Tonight and Friday low chance of light rain or rainshower
over the eastern half of the area.  May see a mix of rain/freezing rain
develop over portions of the NE Permian Basin early Friday and Saturday
mornings.  Rain chances increase Friday night.  By Saturday add
Thunderstorms to the mix as good moisture... frontal boundary... and
upper lift combine.  Severe storms possible Saturday/Saturday night
with SPC placing a marginal risk along the TX/NM border.  Storms
possible again Sunday and could see redevelopment of severe wx farther
east.  Will also have potential for some good rainfall Saturday and
Sunday so flash flooding will also be a concern.  Not much expected
Monday with a better chance of showers again on Tuesday.  Have
increased pops slightly tonight for the east and areawide on
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     36  44  33  46 /  30  30  50  60
Carlsbad                       41  53  37  49 /  10  10  40  50
Dryden                         54  70  60  70 /  10  20  40  40
Fort Stockton                  47  64  48  61 /  10  10  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 47  57  39  53 /   0  10  30  30
Hobbs                          37  47  33  45 /  10  20  50  60
Marfa                          33  69  41  62 /  10   0  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           40  49  34  47 /  20  30  50  50
Odessa                         41  50  34  48 /  20  30  50  50
Wink                           44  53  37  51 /  10  20  40  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
345
FXUS64 KMAF 122008
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
208 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper trough over the West coast will develop into a closed low and
dig south to Mexico Friday before swinging east.  This low will move
over Northern Mexico Saturday... swinging across the area Sunday and
lifting northward.  This low will bring cooler wx and a chance of
precipitation to the area.  A secondary lobe of the trough will dig
south behind it Monday and Tuesday.

A cold front will backdoor into region tonight but should hang up east
to west across the center of the area.  The wind will come around to
the E/NE along and behind the front.  This means southern CWA will
remain much warmer.  Had record highs yesterday in the 80s... MAF
recorded a high of 83 yesterday.  Friday and Saturday highs in the 30s
to 50s north of the Pecos River with 60s and 70s south of it.  Lows
mainly in the 30s and 40s.  The next front moves through Monday.

Precip chances begin this evening and will be on the increase through
the weekend.  Tonight and Friday low chance of light rain or rainshower
over the eastern half of the area.  May see a mix of rain/freezing rain
develop over portions of the NE Permian Basin early Friday and Saturday
mornings.  Rain chances increase Friday night.  By Saturday add
Thunderstorms to the mix as good moisture... frontal boundary... and
upper lift combine.  Severe storms possible Saturday/Saturday night
with SPC placing a marginal risk along the TX/NM border.  Storms
possible again Sunday and could see redevelopment of severe wx farther
east.  Will also have potential for some good rainfall Saturday and
Sunday so flash flooding will also be a concern.  Not much expected
Monday with a better chance of showers again on Tuesday.  Have
increased pops slightly tonight for the east and areawide on
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     36  44  33  46 /  30  30  50  60
Carlsbad                       41  53  37  49 /  10  10  40  50
Dryden                         54  70  60  70 /  10  20  40  40
Fort Stockton                  47  64  48  61 /  10  10  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 47  57  39  53 /   0  10  30  30
Hobbs                          37  47  33  45 /  10  20  50  60
Marfa                          33  69  41  62 /  10   0  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           40  49  34  47 /  20  30  50  50
Odessa                         41  50  34  48 /  20  30  50  50
Wink                           44  53  37  51 /  10  20  40  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/72
185
FXUS64 KMAF 121733
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1133 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be light out of mostly the southeast through this
afternoon. A cold front with northeast winds is expected to come
through the area tonight into Friday morning. Low ceilings and
visibilities as well as a chance of light rain are expected behind
the front.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A large storm system will impact the region this weekend, but
confidence remains low regarding precipitation type Friday into
Saturday.

After smashing the record high Wednesday, temperatures will cool
slightly today as low level moisture and clouds begin to increase. A
strong cold front is currently moving slowly southwest through the
TX Panhandle. This boundary will be a major player over the next
several days. The front is expected to edge south into the area this
afternoon to near Snyder by 5 PM. Southeasterly winds ahead of the
front will help to increase dewpoints throughout the day and keep
temperatures mostly in the 70`s.

An upper trough will begin to take shape over CA later today before
cutting off from the main flow and sliding south into N. Mexico
Friday. At the surface, the above mentioned cold front will continue
slowly working its way south through the area tonight into Friday.
Isentropic upglide will likely lead to the development of drizzle or
light rain behind the front late tonight and Friday. Surface
temperatures may just be cold enough to get some freezing rain to
mix in across parts of Dawson, Borden, and Scurry counties Friday
morning. Forecast soundings indicate a rather thick warm layer
above the surface so it is possible precipitation would stay a
cold rain. For now, have reintroduced a mix of freezing rain into
the forecast for these areas, but things will likely change over
the next 24 hrs. Impacts are expected to remain low due to a warm
ground and temperatures staying near the freezing mark.

The front will likely hang up along the Pecos River Friday afternoon
creating a large temperature gradient across the area. Look for 70`s
along the Rio Grande and only 30`s for highs over the northern
Permian Basin. We should see just a cold light rain over the
Permian Basin Friday afternoon, before temperatures fall to near
freezing again in the same areas Friday night and Saturday
morning. Will again add a mix of rain and freezing rain over the
far northern Permian Basin during this time. Impacts are again
expected to remain low at this time.

The upper low will move east across Mexico Saturday before lifting
quickly across our area Sunday. As this occurs, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread during the day
Sunday. By this time, temperatures areawide should be above
freezing. A decent rainfall event for mid January is looking likely
across the northern half of the area with average QPF amounts around
0.5" to 1".

The upper low will weaken as it lifts into the Plains early next
week. Recent model trends indicate this does not appear to be the
end of this system. A shortwave lagging behind the system will help
dig the upper trough once again to our west late Monday. At the same
time, another cold front will slide through the region.
Precipitation is once again expected to develop as the upper trough
moves across the area Tuesday. Precip type remains in question at
this time as the colder GFS would indicate a chance for snow while
the warmer ECMWF keeps all liquid. Stay tuned!

Cooler and drier conditions move back in behind this system by
midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  36  44  35 /   0  20  30  50
Carlsbad                       75  42  53  39 /   0   0  10  40
Dryden                         73  53  70  60 /   0  10  10  40
Fort Stockton                  76  48  64  49 /   0  10  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 68  47  58  39 /   0   0  10  30
Hobbs                          70  38  47  35 /   0  10  20  50
Marfa                          73  34  68  44 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           73  40  49  36 /   0  20  30  50
Odessa                         73  41  50  36 /   0  10  20  50
Wink                           74  44  53  39 /   0  10  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
215
FXUS64 KMAF 121034
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
434 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A weak cold front will move into the area today, w/fropa at KMAF ~
14Z. Conditions should remain VFR unti after 00Z Fri, when stratus
is forecast to develop. Buffer soundings suggest cigs/visibilities
ranging from LIFR at KMAF to MVFR KCNM/KFST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A large storm system will impact the region this weekend, but
confidence remains low regarding precipitation type Friday into
Saturday.

After smashing the record high Wednesday, temperatures will cool
slightly today as low level moisture and clouds begin to increase. A
strong cold front is currently moving slowly southwest through the
TX Panhandle. This boundary will be a major player over the next
several days. The front is expected to edge south into the area this
afternoon to near Snyder by 5 PM. Southeasterly winds ahead of the
front will help to increase dewpoints throughout the day and keep
temperatures mostly in the 70`s.

An upper trough will begin to take shape over CA later today before
cutting off from the main flow and sliding south into N. Mexico
Friday. At the surface, the above mentioned cold front will continue
slowly working its way south through the area tonight into Friday.
Isentropic upglide will likely lead to the development of drizzle or
light rain behind the front late tonight and Friday. Surface
temperatures may just be cold enough to get some freezing rain to
mix in across parts of Dawson, Borden, and Scurry counties Friday
morning. Forecast soundings indicate a rather thick warm layer
above the surface so it is possible precipitation would stay a
cold rain. For now, have reintroduced a mix of freezing rain into
the forecast for these areas, but things will likely change over
the next 24 hrs. Impacts are expected to remain low due to a warm
ground and temperatures staying near the freezing mark.

The front will likely hang up along the Pecos River Friday afternoon
creating a large temperature gradient across the area. Look for 70`s
along the Rio Grande and only 30`s for highs over the northern
Permian Basin. We should see just a cold light rain over the
Permian Basin Friday afternoon, before temperatures fall to near
freezing again in the same areas Friday night and Saturday
morning. Will again add a mix of rain and freezing rain over the
far northern Permian Basin during this time. Impacts are again
expected to remain low at this time.

The upper low will move east across Mexico Saturday before lifting
quickly across our area Sunday. As this occurs, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread during the day
Sunday. By this time, temperatures areawide should be above
freezing. A decent rainfall event for mid January is looking likely
across the northern half of the area with average QPF amounts around
0.5" to 1".

The upper low will weaken as it lifts into the Plains early next
week. Recent model trends indicate this does not appear to be the
end of this system. A shortwave lagging behind the system will help
dig the upper trough once again to our west late Monday. At the same
time, another cold front will slide through the region.
Precipitation is once again expected to develop as the upper trough
moves across the area Tuesday. Precip type remains in question at
this time as the colder GFS would indicate a chance for snow while
the warmer ECMWF keeps all liquid. Stay tuned!

Cooler and drier conditions move back in behind this system by
midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  36  44  35 /   0  20  30  50
Carlsbad                       75  42  53  39 /   0   0  10  40
Dryden                         73  53  70  60 /   0  10  10  40
Fort Stockton                  76  48  64  49 /   0  10  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 68  47  58  39 /   0   0  10  30
Hobbs                          70  38  47  35 /   0  10  20  50
Marfa                          73  34  68  44 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           73  40  49  36 /   0  20  30  50
Odessa                         73  41  50  36 /   0  10  20  50
Wink                           74  44  53  39 /   0  10  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29/44
271
FXUS64 KMAF 121010
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
410 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...

A large storm system will impact the region this weekend, but
confidence remains low regarding precipitation type Friday into
Saturday.

After smashing the record high Wednesday, temperatures will cool
slightly today as low level moisture and clouds begin to increase. A
strong cold front is currently moving slowly southwest through the
TX Panhandle. This boundary will be a major player over the next
several days. The front is expected to edge south into the area this
afternoon to near Snyder by 5 PM. Southeasterly winds ahead of the
front will help to increase dewpoints throughout the day and keep
temperatures mostly in the 70`s.

An upper trough will begin to take shape over CA later today before
cutting off from the main flow and sliding south into N. Mexico
Friday. At the surface, the above mentioned cold front will continue
slowly working its way south through the area tonight into Friday.
Isentropic upglide will likely lead to the development of drizzle or
light rain behind the front late tonight and Friday. Surface
temperatures may just be cold enough to get some freezing rain to
mix in across parts of Dawson, Borden, and Scurry counties Friday
morning. Forecast soundings indicate a rather thick warm layer
above the surface so it is possible precipitation would stay a
cold rain. For now, have reintroduced a mix of freezing rain into
the forecast for these areas, but things will likely change over
the next 24 hrs. Impacts are expected to remain low due to a warm
ground and temperatures staying near the freezing mark.

The front will likely hang up along the Pecos River Friday afternoon
creating a large temperature gradient across the area. Look for 70`s
along the Rio Grande and only 30`s for highs over the northern
Permian Basin. We should see just a cold light rain over the
Permian Basin Friday afternoon, before temperatures fall to near
freezing again in the same areas Friday night and Saturday
morning. Will again add a mix of rain and freezing rain over the
far northern Permian Basin during this time. Impacts are again
expected to remain low at this time.

The upper low will move east across Mexico Saturday before lifting
quickly across our area Sunday. As this occurs, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread during the day
Sunday. By this time, temperatures areawide should be above
freezing. A decent rainfall event for mid January is looking likely
across the northern half of the area with average QPF amounts around
0.5" to 1".

The upper low will weaken as it lifts into the Plains early next
week. Recent model trends indicate this does not appear to be the
end of this system. A shortwave lagging behind the system will help
dig the upper trough once again to our west late Monday. At the same
time, another cold front will slide through the region.
Precipitation is once again expected to develop as the upper trough
moves across the area Tuesday. Precip type remains in question at
this time as the colder GFS would indicate a chance for snow while
the warmer ECMWF keeps all liquid. Stay tuned!

Cooler and drier conditions move back in behind this system by
midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  36  44  35 /   0  20  30  50
Carlsbad                       75  42  53  39 /   0   0  10  40
Dryden                         73  53  70  60 /   0  10  10  40
Fort Stockton                  76  48  64  49 /   0  10  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 68  47  58  39 /   0   0  10  30
Hobbs                          70  38  47  35 /   0  10  20  50
Marfa                          73  34  68  44 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           73  40  49  36 /   0  20  30  50
Odessa                         73  41  50  36 /   0  10  20  50
Wink                           74  44  53  39 /   0  10  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29
264
FXUS64 KMAF 120422
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1022 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Winds have mostly decreased to less than 10kt at TAF sites with
thinning high clouds advancing from the west. Otherwise VFR. A
weak front is in the far NE Panhandle and will slowly move south
resulting in e-ne wind shift around 18Z Thur, wind speeds will
remain 10kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  71  47  52 /   0   0  20  40
Carlsbad                       43  72  46  60 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         48  71  56  71 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton                  47  76  51  69 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 45  67  46  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  70  43  52 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          31  71  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           43  72  52  57 /   0   0  20  30
Odessa                         43  72  52  57 /   0   0  20  30
Wink                           41  73  51  61 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
014
FXUS64 KMAF 120125 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
725 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.UPDATE...
RFW has expired for GDP Mtns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The potential for critical wx has passed and the RFW has expired.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 545 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Winds are subsiding across the TAF sites and are expected to
be 10-15kts no later than 02Z, and lighter thereafter. Winds are
still strong aloft with turbulence INVOF GDP Mtns dangerous for
low flying light aircraft and can be expected overnight.
Otherwise VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is beginning to move southward over the west coast
allowing the CWA to be under west southwest flow aloft.  Upper winds
aloft are continuing to mix downward towards the surface over the
Guadalupe Mountains resulting in high wind.  The High Wind Warning
for the Guadalupe Mountains continues through most of tonight.
Elevated and gusty southwest winds will be present across the area
today resulting in downslope compressional warming.  This
compressional warming, along with clearing skies, will result in
warmer temperatures than yesterday.  The current temperature is 81
degrees in Midland and the record high for today is 78 degrees so
the record has already been beat.  A Red Flag Warning is in effect
for the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon due to strong winds, low
RH values, above normal temperatures, and high to extreme fire
danger.

On Thursday, the upper trough will strengthen and move over
California.  850 mb temperatures over the CWA will be cooler as the
upper trough approaches the region so expect high temperatures
tomorrow to mostly be in the lower to mid 70s.  On Friday, the upper
trough moves southward and will be centered just off the coast of
southern California.  Models are indicating that a cold front will
begin moving into the CWA sometime Friday morning with the NAM12
moving it in faster and further south than the GFS and ECMWF.  Upper
lift and moisture will increase on Friday ahead of the upper trough
allowing for precipitation chances across mainly northern and
eastern sections of the CWA.  High temperatures on Friday will be
tricky depending on how far south and how fast the front moves into
the area.

The NAM12 is colder than 24 hours ago with this model now indicating
temperatures cooling to around freezing Friday night/Saturday
morning.  The GFS and ECMWF continue to show temperatures well above
freezing by Saturday morning for the northern CWA.  The NAM12
forecast sounding near Snyder, TX shows rain changing over to
freezing rain around midnight Friday night.  This sounding shows
freezing rain through Saturday morning with temperatures warming to
a little above freezing Saturday afternoon.  The NAM12 sounding for
Midland shows temperatures Saturday morning hovering a few degrees
above freezing so expect mostly a cold rain although a little bit of
wintry precip can`t be ruled out especially if the temperature cools
to the dewpoint temperature at the surface.  High temperatures
Saturday will again depend on how far south the front moves
according to the GFS/ECMWF or NAM12.  Since the NAM12 seems to be
the outlier, did not include freezing temperatures or frozen
precipitation in the forecast. There will be enough instability
ahead of the front across the Lower Trans Pecos and Terrell County
that thunderstorms will be possible both Friday and Saturday with
negative LI index values and mid-level lapse rates around 7 degrees
C/km.  The models show the precipitation spreading further westward
across the area on Saturday.

The upper trough moves over the CWA on Sunday with the models
showing the highest precipitation amounts falling this day.  The GFS
and ECMWF show a Pacific front with westerly winds moving through
the area on Sunday.  The models also show most of the precipitation
ending by Sunday night and another front coming into the area
accompanied by a northerly wind shift.  It doesn`t appear that this
front will have much impact on temperatures as highs on Monday are
expected to be fairly similar to Sunday.  Another extension of the
upper trough will move over the region on Tuesday but mostly dry
conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  71  47  52 /   0   0  20  40
Carlsbad                       43  72  46  60 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         48  71  56  71 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton                  47  76  51  69 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 45  67  46  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  70  43  52 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          31  71  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           43  72  52  57 /   0   0  20  30
Odessa                         43  72  52  57 /   0   0  20  30
Wink                           41  73  51  61 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
534
FXUS64 KMAF 112345
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
545 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Winds are subsiding across the TAF sites and are expected to
be 10-15kts no later than 02Z, and lighter thereafter. Winds are
still strong aloft with turbulence INVOF GDP Mtns dangerous for
low flying light aircraft and can be expected overnight.
Otherwise VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is beginning to move southward over the west coast
allowing the CWA to be under west southwest flow aloft.  Upper winds
aloft are continuing to mix downward towards the surface over the
Guadalupe Mountains resulting in high wind.  The High Wind Warning
for the Guadalupe Mountains continues through most of tonight.
Elevated and gusty southwest winds will be present across the area
today resulting in downslope compressional warming.  This
compressional warming, along with clearing skies, will result in
warmer temperatures than yesterday.  The current temperature is 81
degrees in Midland and the record high for today is 78 degrees so
the record has already been beat.  A Red Flag Warning is in effect
for the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon due to strong winds, low
RH values, above normal temperatures, and high to extreme fire
danger.

On Thursday, the upper trough will strengthen and move over
California.  850 mb temperatures over the CWA will be cooler as the
upper trough approaches the region so expect high temperatures
tomorrow to mostly be in the lower to mid 70s.  On Friday, the upper
trough moves southward and will be centered just off the coast of
southern California.  Models are indicating that a cold front will
begin moving into the CWA sometime Friday morning with the NAM12
moving it in faster and further south than the GFS and ECMWF.  Upper
lift and moisture will increase on Friday ahead of the upper trough
allowing for precipitation chances across mainly northern and
eastern sections of the CWA.  High temperatures on Friday will be
tricky depending on how far south and how fast the front moves into
the area.

The NAM12 is colder than 24 hours ago with this model now indicating
temperatures cooling to around freezing Friday night/Saturday
morning.  The GFS and ECMWF continue to show temperatures well above
freezing by Saturday morning for the northern CWA.  The NAM12
forecast sounding near Snyder, TX shows rain changing over to
freezing rain around midnight Friday night.  This sounding shows
freezing rain through Saturday morning with temperatures warming to
a little above freezing Saturday afternoon.  The NAM12 sounding for
Midland shows temperatures Saturday morning hovering a few degrees
above freezing so expect mostly a cold rain although a little bit of
wintry precip can`t be ruled out especially if the temperature cools
to the dewpoint temperature at the surface.  High temperatures
Saturday will again depend on how far south the front moves
according to the GFS/ECMWF or NAM12.  Since the NAM12 seems to be
the outlier, did not include freezing temperatures or frozen
precipitation in the forecast. There will be enough instability
ahead of the front across the Lower Trans Pecos and Terrell County
that thunderstorms will be possible both Friday and Saturday with
negative LI index values and mid-level lapse rates around 7 degrees
C/km.  The models show the precipitation spreading further westward
across the area on Saturday.

The upper trough moves over the CWA on Sunday with the models
showing the highest precipitation amounts falling this day.  The GFS
and ECMWF show a Pacific front with westerly winds moving through
the area on Sunday.  The models also show most of the precipitation
ending by Sunday night and another front coming into the area
accompanied by a northerly wind shift.  It doesn`t appear that this
front will have much impact on temperatures as highs on Monday are
expected to be fairly similar to Sunday.  Another extension of the
upper trough will move over the region on Tuesday but mostly dry
conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  71  47  52 /   0   0  20  40
Carlsbad                       43  72  46  60 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         48  71  56  71 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton                  47  76  51  69 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 45  67  46  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  70  43  52 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          31  71  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           43  72  52  57 /   0   0  20  30
Odessa                         43  72  52  57 /   0   0  20  30
Wink                           41  73  51  61 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
739
FXUS64 KMAF 112034
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
234 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is beginning to move southward over the west coast
allowing the CWA to be under west southwest flow aloft.  Upper winds
aloft are continuing to mix downward towards the surface over the
Guadalupe Mountains resulting in high wind.  The High Wind Warning
for the Guadalupe Mountains continues through most of tonight.
Elevated and gusty southwest winds will be present across the area
today resulting in downslope compressional warming.  This
compressional warming, along with clearing skies, will result in
warmer temperatures than yesterday.  The current temperature is 81
degrees in Midland and the record high for today is 78 degrees so
the record has already been beat.  A Red Flag Warning is in effect
for the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon due to strong winds, low
RH values, above normal temperatures, and high to extreme fire
danger.

On Thursday, the upper trough will strengthen and move over
California.  850 mb temperatures over the CWA will be cooler as the
upper trough approaches the region so expect high temperatures
tomorrow to mostly be in the lower to mid 70s.  On Friday, the upper
trough moves southward and will be centered just off the coast of
southern California.  Models are indicating that a cold front will
begin moving into the CWA sometime Friday morning with the NAM12
moving it in faster and further south than the GFS and ECMWF.  Upper
lift and moisture will increase on Friday ahead of the upper trough
allowing for precipitation chances across mainly northern and
eastern sections of the CWA.  High temperatures on Friday will be
tricky depending on how far south and how fast the front moves into
the area.

The NAM12 is colder than 24 hours ago with this model now indicating
temperatures cooling to around freezing Friday night/Saturday
morning.  The GFS and ECMWF continue to show temperatures well above
freezing by Saturday morning for the northern CWA.  The NAM12
forecast sounding near Snyder, TX shows rain changing over to
freezing rain around midnight Friday night.  This sounding shows
freezing rain through Saturday morning with temperatures warming to
a little above freezing Saturday afternoon.  The NAM12 sounding for
Midland shows temperatures Saturday morning hovering a few degrees
above freezing so expect mostly a cold rain although a little bit of
wintry precip can`t be ruled out especially if the temperature cools
to the dewpoint temperature at the surface.  High temperatures
Saturday will again depend on how far south the front moves
according to the GFS/ECMWF or NAM12.  Since the NAM12 seems to be
the outlier, did not include freezing temperatures or frozen
precipitation in the forecast. There will be enough instability
ahead of the front across the Lower Trans Pecos and Terrell County
that thunderstorms will be possible both Friday and Saturday with
negative LI index values and mid-level lapse rates around 7 degrees
C/km.  The models show the precipitation spreading further westward
across the area on Saturday.

The upper trough moves over the CWA on Sunday with the models
showing the highest precipitation amounts falling this day.  The GFS
and ECMWF show a Pacific front with westerly winds moving through
the area on Sunday.  The models also show most of the precipitation
ending by Sunday night and another front coming into the area
accompanied by a northerly wind shift.  It doesn`t appear that this
front will have much impact on temperatures as highs on Monday are
expected to be fairly similar to Sunday.  Another extension of the
upper trough will move over the region on Tuesday but mostly dry
conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  71  47  52 /   0   0  20  40
Carlsbad                       43  72  46  60 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         48  71  56  71 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton                  47  76  51  69 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 45  67  46  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  70  43  52 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          31  71  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           43  72  52  57 /   0   0  20  30
Odessa                         43  72  52  57 /   0   0  20  30
Wink                           41  73  51  61 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

03/80
197
FXUS64 KMAF 111727
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1127 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will persist at TAF locations through the forecast
period. Breezy to windy southwest to west surface winds will
persist through the afternoon hours, gradually diminishing this
evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Record warm temperatures expected today before a strong, springlike
storm system affects the area this weekend.

Zonal mid level flow over the Southern Rockies has induced an area
of surface low pressure over western Kansas this morning. This will
lead to downsloping, southwesterly surface winds across much of the
region today. Expect high temperatures to reach well into the 70`s
and 80`s with 90 degrees not out of the question along the Rio Grande
later this afternoon. The record high for Midland Intl today is 78
set in 1935.

Our weekend storm system will begin to take shape along the West
Coast Thursday, turning mid level winds more to the southwest over
our region. Expect another warm day Thursday, but increasing
moisture and clouds should keep temperatures from reaching any
records. The upper trough will cut off from the main flow Friday and
slide southeast into northern Mexico. Meanwhile a cold front will
move south into the Southern Plains Friday and likely stall across
the area. Forecast confidence drops pretty quickly by this time as
models struggle with how far south the cold airmass will get. The
GFS is the warmest and furthest north with the front while most of
the other models move the front to near the Pecos River before
stalling it Friday afternoon. Will lean toward the NAM and ECMWF
as they have been most consistent. Luckily, it appears temperatures
even behind the front will stay above freezing during the day Friday
as precipitation begins to develop across the area.

Several factors will then come into play this weekend hopefully
leading to widespread rainfall across much of the area. Large scale
ascent will increase with the approach of the upper low as will
isentropic upglide along and behind the stalled cold front. As it
appears now, our best shot of precipitation, likely showers and
thunderstorms, will come Saturday night into Sunday as the upper low
lifts north across New Mexico. Heavy rain will be possible and may
lead to runoff and localized flooding due to dormant vegetation
and a hard, dry ground. Again, the current forecast will keep all
precipitation in the liquid form as freezing temperatures look to
remain off to the north. This could change, but the trend as of
late has been for overall warmer temperatures this weekend.

A cold front will bring drier and cooler conditions early next week
as the upper low weakens over the Plains.

FIRE WEATHER...

08Z observations at several sites in the Guadalupes report critical
20` winds under zonal flow aloft.  This zonal flow has been
persistent over the past 24 hours, and models forecast it to
continue another 24 more.  Latest NAM forecasts 750mb westerlies
over the next 24 hours of 45-50kts at times.  Temperatures today
will be unseasonably warm, resulting in critical RH, beginning in
the northern reaches of NMZ114 and quickly spreading south into
TXZ258.  The ERC seasonal graph for the Trans Pecos shows ERCs have
climbed to normal.  Forecast Fire Danger for the Guadalupes is high-
extreme, so we`ll issue a RFW for that area. Adjacent plains will
have critical RH this afternoon, but 20` winds don`t look to pan
out. However, we`ll note the dry conditions in the HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     45  73  49  57 /   0   0  20  40
Carlsbad                       43  73  44  62 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         48  73  55  72 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  45  76  51  72 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 47  67  47  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  70  42  53 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          36  73  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  74  53  60 /   0   0  10  30
Odessa                         45  74  53  61 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           41  74  48  66 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

03/80/03
248
FXUS64 KMAF 111018
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
418 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours under a few high
clouds. SW flow will continue, becoming gusty this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Record warm temperatures expected today before a strong, springlike
storm system affects the area this weekend.

Zonal mid level flow over the Southern Rockies has induced an area
of surface low pressure over western Kansas this morning. This will
lead to downsloping, southwesterly surface winds across much of the
region today. Expect high temperatures to reach well into the 70`s
and 80`s with 90 degrees not out of the question along the Rio Grande
later this afternoon. The record high for Midland Intl today is 78
set in 1935.

Our weekend storm system will begin to take shape along the West
Coast Thursday, turning mid level winds more to the southwest over
our region. Expect another warm day Thursday, but increasing
moisture and clouds should keep temperatures from reaching any
records. The upper trough will cut off from the main flow Friday and
slide southeast into northern Mexico. Meanwhile a cold front will
move south into the Southern Plains Friday and likely stall across
the area. Forecast confidence drops pretty quickly by this time as
models struggle with how far south the cold airmass will get. The
GFS is the warmest and furthest north with the front while most of
the other models move the front to near the Pecos River before
stalling it Friday afternoon. Will lean toward the NAM and ECMWF
as they have been most consistent. Luckily, it appears temperatures
even behind the front will stay above freezing during the day Friday
as precipitation begins to develop across the area.

Several factors will then come into play this weekend hopefully
leading to widespread rainfall across much of the area. Large scale
ascent will increase with the approach of the upper low as will
isentropic upglide along and behind the stalled cold front. As it
appears now, our best shot of precipitation, likely showers and
thunderstorms, will come Saturday night into Sunday as the upper low
lifts north across New Mexico. Heavy rain will be possible and may
lead to runoff and localized flooding due to dormant vegetation
and a hard, dry ground. Again, the current forecast will keep all
precipitation in the liquid form as freezing temperatures look to
remain off to the north. This could change, but the trend as of
late has been for overall warmer temperatures this weekend.

A cold front will bring drier and cooler conditions early next week
as the upper low weakens over the Plains.

FIRE WEATHER...

08Z observations at several sites in the Guadalupes report critical
20` winds under zonal flow aloft.  This zonal flow has been
persistent over the past 24 hours, and models forecast it to
continue another 24 more.  Latest NAM forecasts 750mb westerlies
over the next 24 hours of 45-50kts at times.  Temperatures today
will be unseasonably warm, resulting in critical RH, beginning in
the northern reaches of NMZ114 and quickly spreading south into
TXZ258.  The ERC seasonal graph for the Trans Pecos shows ERCs have
climbed to normal.  Forecast Fire Danger for the Guadalupes is high-
extreme, so we`ll issue a RFW for that area. Adjacent plains will
have critical RH this afternoon, but 20` winds don`t look to pan
out. However, we`ll note the dry conditions in the HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     82  45  73  49 /   0   0   0  20
Carlsbad                       77  43  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         82  48  73  55 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  83  45  76  51 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 68  47  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          76  39  70  42 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          76  36  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           81  45  74  53 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         80  45  74  53 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           79  41  74  48 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/29/44
509
FXUS64 KMAF 110951
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
351 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Record warm temperatures expected today before a strong, springlike
storm system affects the area this weekend.

Zonal mid level flow over the Southern Rockies has induced an area
of surface low pressure over western Kansas this morning. This will
lead to downsloping, southwesterly surface winds across much of the
region today. Expect high temperatures to reach well into the 70`s
and 80`s with 90 degrees not out of the question along the Rio Grande
later this afternoon. The record high for Midland Intl today is 78
set in 1935.

Our weekend storm system will begin to take shape along the West
Coast Thursday, turning mid level winds more to the southwest over
our region. Expect another warm day Thursday, but increasing
moisture and clouds should keep temperatures from reaching any
records. The upper trough will cut off from the main flow Friday and
slide southeast into northern Mexico. Meanwhile a cold front will
move south into the Southern Plains Friday and likely stall across
the area. Forecast confidence drops pretty quickly by this time as
models struggle with how far south the cold airmass will get. The
GFS is the warmest and furthest north with the front while most of
the other models move the front to near the Pecos River before
stalling it Friday afternoon. Will lean toward the NAM and ECMWF
as they have been most consistent. Luckily, it appears temperatures
even behind the front will stay above freezing during the day Friday
as precipitation begins to develop across the area.

Several factors will then come into play this weekend hopefully
leading to widespread rainfall across much of the area. Large scale
ascent will increase with the approach of the upper low as will
isentropic upglide along and behind the stalled cold front. As it
appears now, our best shot of precipitation, likely showers and
thunderstorms, will come Saturday night into Sunday as the upper low
lifts north across New Mexico. Heavy rain will be possible and may
lead to runoff and localized flooding due to dormant vegetation
and a hard, dry ground. Again, the current forecast will keep all
precipitation in the liquid form as freezing temperatures look to
remain off to the north. This could change, but the trend as of
late has been for overall warmer temperatures this weekend.

A cold front will bring drier and cooler conditions early next week
as the upper low weakens over the Plains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

08Z observations at several sites in the Guadalupes report critical
20` winds under zonal flow aloft.  This zonal flow has been
persistent over the past 24 hours, and models forecast it to
continue another 24 more.  Latest NAM forecasts 750mb westerlies
over the next 24 hours of 45-50kts at times.  Temperatures today
will be unseasonably warm, resulting in critical RH, beginning in
the northern reaches of NMZ114 and quickly spreading south into
TXZ258.  The ERC seasonal graph for the Trans Pecos shows ERCs have
climbed to normal.  Forecast Fire Danger for the Guadalupes is high-
extreme, so we`ll issue a RFW for that area. Adjacent plains will
have critical RH this afternoon, but 20` winds don`t look to pan
out. However, we`ll note the dry conditions in the HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     82  45  73  49 /   0   0   0  20
Carlsbad                       77  43  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         82  48  73  55 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  83  45  76  51 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 68  47  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          76  39  70  42 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          76  36  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           81  45  74  53 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         80  45  74  53 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           79  41  74  48 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/29

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