Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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852
FXUS64 KMAF 292318
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions to prevail through Saturday. Isolated storms across
the PB and lower Trans Pecos will dissipate after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A weak boundary is near a line from CNM to MAF to south of BPG and
with clouds across the nrn CWFA the 18Z temps were about 7-10
degrees cooler than this time yesterday. Visible imagery does show
clouds dissipating so temps will catch up some, still have lowered
highs temps a few degrees across the n. Also have decided to tighten
up PoP gradient on wrn edge. Combination of boundary, better low
level mstr, and SB instability does favor best PoPs across the far
e-se CWFA and have left low end scattered 30% PoPs there for this
PM. Drier air will be deeper Sat as low dwpnt air across NM moves
se into parts of the CWFA. SB LI`s increase to -1 to zero at 21Z
Sat and with 85h temps around 26-28C it will mostly be on the hot
side with high temps running about 3-5 degrees above normal. The
exception will be in the Davis Mtns where dwpnts in the M50s and
7h-5h LR/s near 6.5 c/km warrant at least isold PoPs. Low level
mstr will edge back up with dwpnts in the mid/upper 50s
Sunday/Monday as se surface winds persist. CINH looks to increase
though with 7h temps increasing to around 12C Sunday and 13-14C
Monday. Isold PoPs still look to be warranted in the Davis Mtns
though. 85h temps will increase to around 27C in the PB to 31C in
SE NM, thus it will be warmer still. There will be little change
Tue, but LI`s will slowly becoming more negative and ECMWF does
initiate small area of storms across NW PB/SE NM Tue PM within a
very minor 5h mid level theta-e ridge axis. Mid level ridging is
well in place Wed with an e-se mid level flow. This will cool 7h
temps a few degrees and isold -SHRA will be possible. In lieu of
"shotgun" low PoPs will keep fcst dry Wed. Thur/Fri the chance of
precip may be just a little better across the w as mid level mstr
will have had a better chance to move into higher terrain of the
Trans Pecos. High temps will cool a few degrees with the deeper se
flow.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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