593
FXUS64 KMAF 161945
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
245 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE
ARKLATEX...ALLOWING BROAD...FLAT RIDGING TO BUILD INTO WEST TEXAS/SE
NM. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...W/LITTLE CU DEVELOPMENT NOTED ON THE VISIBLE LOOP. SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DRYLINE JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND AFTERNOON TEMPS
APPROACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS. FRIDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE DOESN/T
MOVE MUCH...AND MODELS EVEN STRENGTHEN IT OVER TODAY...FOR THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OFF THE PACNW COAST WILL BEGIN AMPLIFYING/
DIGGING INTO THE WRN CONUS...POSITIVELY TILTING AND REACHING THE
FOUR CORNERS BY 18Z SATURDAY OR SO. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
SW FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...PROMPTING FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MODELS SHOW
BETTER MOISTURE TO LIE ACROSS THE DRYLINE/EXTREME ERN ZONES BY 18Z
SATURDAY. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW. TIMING OF THE TROUGH MAY
BE FAST ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE BEFORE IT
CLEARS THE ERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE WINDOW WILL BE
SHORT...W/THE DRYLINE PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER
00Z.
OTHERWISE...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE TROUGH...AS
MODELS DEVELOP A SECONDARY...WEAKER ONE BEHIND THE FIRST. NET
EFFECT OF THIS WILL BE TO KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE FROM
REDEVELOPING...AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE COOLER 90S AS OPPOSED TO TRIPLE
DIGITS. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS...THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SECONDARY TROUGH...AND DIGS IT A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH AS IT FOLLOWS THE FIRST. THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FIRE
WX CONCERNS LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS HAVE FINALLY INCREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS TO MEET
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BE THE NORM AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AFTERNOON
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PLUMMET TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
FRIDAY...20 FOOT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 20 MPH SO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOWER. THIS WILL CHANGE SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING WIND SPEEDS
TO RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 62 101 63 97 / 0 0 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 57 103 72 98 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 60 102 66 94 / 0 0 10 0
DRYDEN TX 67 104 71 97 / 0 0 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 67 104 67 98 / 0 10 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 66 91 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 60 100 64 94 / 0 0 10 0
MARFA TX 52 92 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 63 103 66 98 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 70 102 70 96 / 0 0 10 0
WINK TX 61 105 63 99 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...
DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...
MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
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