Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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561
FXUS64 KMAF 040545
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1245 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs
affecting terminals early Monday then possible TSRA. Currently have
some scattered showers and thunderstorms near PEQ and FST tonight
and will continue mention for the next few hours. Attm, don`t think
current activity will affect other sites but will continue to
monitor and make adjustments if/when needed. Persistent SE flow
across the region tonight will result in increased moisture and
therefore the development of low clouds. For now, only have mention
of MVFR at HOB and MAF where confidence is highest. Also, think
there will be a brief period of IFR at MAF and have added mention in
a TEMPO. Low cigs will lift late morning with the potential for
severe thunderstorms by the afternoon. Models indicate isolated
thunderstorms popping up by early afternoon but exact
timing/location is still uncertain. Highest confidence of TSRA
affecting terminals is at CNM and HOB so went ahead and added
prevailing -TSRA beginning at 04/21Z. Adjustments will likely be
needed to timing. Otherwise, gusty SE winds expected once again
Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved to the east of West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico over the past 24 hours, leaving the
CWA under SW flow aloft.  Mesoanalysis has shown a strong cap in
place this morning/afternoon, possible hindering development of a
stronger dryline.  However, this is starting to erode W-E, w/sat
imagery showing a weak shortwave moving into far West Texas.  Area
radars show convection trying to develop west of the Pecos...but
struggling.  However, w/continued heating/destabilization and the
aforementioned shortwave, activity should pick up over the next few
hrs and last into the evening.

Monday, the upper trough makes landfall in SoCal, and height falls
begin across the desert CONUS.  Models bring a shortwave thru the
ern zones during the morning, and develop convection westward during
the day as large-scale ascent commences ahead of the trough and a
strong dryline develops against the wrn mtns.  Models, particularly
the GFS, show a cap ahead of the trough Monday, but also strong lift
in the lwr levels invof the cap.  Mid-lvl LR`s increase during the
day, especially out west, and we`ll maintain a mention of svr during
the afternoon in the grids.  Monday night, as the trough moves into
the 4 Corners area, a strong 50+kt LLJ is set to develop over the
Permian Basin, w/storms becoming a bit more organized and heading
E-NE.  Forecast PWATs remain high--near the climatological maximum
for May--and higher model QPFs have not changed much in 24 hrs,
remaining north of I-20 and mainly SE NM.  Attm, we see no reason to
change the going FFA.  Mid shift can expand if things change.  0-6km
bulk shear of 35-60kts is still forecast over the srn zones during
the evening, expanding north overnight.  Concurrent w/this, models
develop 0-3km SR helicities in excess of 150 ms/s2, and bring this
up thru the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling Plains as well.  0-1km
SREH remains impressive as well, so we`ll keep a mention of isolated
tornadoes in the HWO.  Trough will continue exiting into the Central
Rockies Tuesday, w/rain chances tapering off to the
NE.

Otherwise, temps will be back to near-normal by Wednesday, and
remain fairly persistent each day into the weekend under SW flow
aloft.  Models develop a dryline each afternoon, for a chance of
convection each day ern zones.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through late Monday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Tuesday morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.


&&

$$

27

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