Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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237
FXUS64 KMAF 060501
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1201 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail the next 24 hours. SE
winds overnight will generally be around 10-15KT, with a few gusts
up to around 20KT possible for FST and PEQ. Winds will increase by
mid morning Friday at all terminals, with sustained speeds of
20-25KT with gusts to around 30-35KT possible. A few thunderstorms
are possible for CNM and PEQ after 07/00Z, but have not included
mention that late in the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 pm CDT Thursday...other than some high
clouds streaming overhead from the subtropical Pacific it is a
pleasant Spring day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Temps are mainly in the 80s with dry conditions.

Potent upper low now moving into Central California will drop
southeast into the desert southwest by late Saturday aftn. The
flow aloft over the Southern Plains will become southwest with
weak perturbations moving overhead in the flow aloft. With the
development of a sfc lee side trof the low level flow will turn
to southeast advecting moisture into the CWA from the southeast.
Looking at the sfc obs near the Gulf there is not much low level
moisture upstream...probably due to the modified continental
airmass that settled over the Gulf Coast in the last couple of
days.

It appears that a diffuse dryline will develop over the western
CWA on Friday with storms developing over the higher terrain and
moving east. As the upper low gets closer and with continued low
level southeast flow the dryline will sharpen some Friday night
and Saturday over the Permian Basin with the possibility of
convection spreading east. Stronger instability on Saturday with
MUCAPE values above 750 J and decent 0-6 km bulk shear some storms
could be strong or even severe. The biggest threat looks to be
strong winds and hail. The dryline retreats a bit Saturday night
before moving east on Sunday...with the threat of convection in
the eastern zones on Sunday.

The upper low will lift northeast Sunday into next week into the
Central Plains. This will bring westerly flow into the Southern
Plains resulting in dry and warm to hot temps. Ridging along the
West Coast will continue the WNW flow to the Southern Plains with
mainly dry weather and slightly above normal temps thru the middle
of next week.

Strobin

FIRE WEATHER...Dry air will remain over the region through
tonight and result in poor recovery areawide. Low level winds will
begin to back to the southeast over the Permian Basin Friday,
bring a little low level moisture to these areas, and keep RH/s
generally above 15 percent Friday afternoon along and east of a SE
NM to Big Bend line, despite above normal high temperatures.
Farther west, RH/s will drop to 10 to 15 percent, with
southeasterly winds increasing in many of these areas around
07/00Z. A few locations could have critical fire weather
conditions, especially in the Guadalupe Mountains and SE NM
Plains, but the duration is in question and a Fire Weather Watch
will not be issued. Another concern will be the possibility of
scattered thunderstorms developing in and near the Marfa Plateau,
and Davis and Guadalupe Mountains Friday afternoon. Since the air
near the surface will be pretty dry, any storms could produce dry
lightning strikes and strong gusty winds. Low level moisture will
begin to increase over these areas into Friday evening, so there
will be a chance of a wetting rain over the higher terrain Friday
night. Recovery Friday night will be poor west to fair east,
unless wetting rains occur over the west.

On Saturday, a dryline will form over the Permian Basin and could
result in scattered thunderstorms over the Permian Basin Saturday
afternoon.  In the drier air west of the dryline, above normal
temperatures will aid RH/s dropping to 5 to 15 percent.  Critical
fire weather conditions could occur Saturday afternoon/evening over
the Guadalupes and SE NM Plains, but this will depend on whether
these areas receive rain on Friday night. Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     88  57  87  61 /   0   0   0  20
Carlsbad                       90  55  91  59 /   0   0  20  20
Dryden                         92  62  91  65 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  90  64  92  64 /   0   0  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 83  58  86  56 /   0   0  20  30
Hobbs                          87  54  87  58 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                          83  46  86  52 /   0   0  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           89  60  87  61 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                         89  62  88  64 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           93  60  95  63 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
191
FXUS64 KMAF 052302
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
602 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with some mid and high cloudiness are expected at
the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24
hours. Winds tonight through mid Friday morning will generally be
southeasterly at 10 to 15 mph and gusty at times. Southeast
winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph and gusty late Friday morning
through Friday afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 pm CDT Thursday...other than some high
clouds streaming overhead from the subtropical Pacific it is a
pleasant Spring day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Temps are mainly in the 80s with dry conditions.

Potent upper low now moving into Central California will drop
southeast into the desert southwest by late Saturday aftn. The
flow aloft over the Southern Plains will become southwest with
weak perturbations moving overhead in the flow aloft. With the
development of a sfc lee side trof the low level flow will turn
to southeast advecting moisture into the CWA from the southeast.
Looking at the sfc obs near the Gulf there is not much low level
moisture upstream...probably due to the modified continental
airmass that settled over the Gulf Coast in the last couple of
days.

It appears that a diffuse dryline will develop over the western
CWA on Friday with storms developing over the higher terrain and
moving east. As the upper low gets closer and with continued low
level southeast flow the dryline will sharpen some Friday night
and Saturday over the Permian Basin with the possibility of
convection spreading east. Stronger instability on Saturday with
MUCAPE values above 750 J and decent 0-6 km bulk shear some storms
could be strong or even severe. The biggest threat looks to be
strong winds and hail. The dryline retreats a bit Saturday night
before moving east on Sunday...with the threat of convection in
the eastern zones on Sunday.

The upper low will lift northeast Sunday into next week into the
Central Plains. This will bring westerly flow into the Southern
Plains resulting in dry and warm to hot temps. Ridging along the
West Coast will continue the WNW flow to the Southern Plains with
mainly dry weather and slightly above normal temps thru the middle
of next week.

Strobin

FIRE WEATHER...Dry air will remain over the region through
tonight and result in poor recovery areawide. Low level winds will
begin to back to the southeast over the Permian Basin Friday,
bring a little low level moisture to these areas, and keep RH/s
generally above 15 percent Friday afternoon along and east of a SE
NM to Big Bend line, despite above normal high temperatures.
Farther west, RH/s will drop to 10 to 15 percent, with
southeasterly winds increasing in many of these areas around
07/00Z. A few locations could have critical fire weather
conditions, especially in the Guadalupe Mountains and SE NM
Plains, but the duration is in question and a Fire Weather Watch
will not be issued. Another concern will be the possibility of
scattered thunderstorms developing in and near the Marfa Plateau,
and Davis and Guadalupe Mountains Friday afternoon. Since the air
near the surface will be pretty dry, any storms could produce dry
lightning strikes and strong gusty winds. Low level moisture will
begin to increase over these areas into Friday evening, so there
will be a chance of a wetting rain over the higher terrain Friday
night. Recovery Friday night will be poor west to fair east,
unless wetting rains occur over the west.

On Saturday, a dryline will form over the Permian Basin and could
result in scattered thunderstorms over the Permian Basin Saturday
afternoon.  In the drier air west of the dryline, above normal
temperatures will aid RH/s dropping to 5 to 15 percent.  Critical
fire weather conditions could occur Saturday afternoon/evening over
the Guadalupes and SE NM Plains, but this will depend on whether
these areas receive rain on Friday night. Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  87  61  90 /   0   0  20  20
Carlsbad                       55  91  59  89 /   0  20  20  10
Dryden                         62  91  65  93 /   0  10  10  20
Fort Stockton                  64  92  64  93 /   0  10  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 58  86  56  81 /   0  20  30  10
Hobbs                          54  87  58  86 /   0  10  20  10
Marfa                          46  86  52  88 /   0  20  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           60  87  61  89 /   0  10  20  20
Odessa                         62  88  64  89 /   0  10  20  20
Wink                           60  95  63  93 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/12
759
FXUS64 KMAF 051940
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
240 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 pm CDT Thursday...other than some high
clouds streaming overhead from the subtropical Pacific it is a
pleasant Spring day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Temps are mainly in the 80s with dry conditions.

Potent upper low now moving into Central California will drop
southeast into the desert southwest by late Saturday aftn. The
flow aloft over the Southern Plains will become southwest with
weak perturbations moving overhead in the flow aloft. With the
development of a sfc lee side trof the low level flow will turn
to southeast advecting moisture into the CWA from the southeast.
Looking at the sfc obs near the Gulf there is not much low level
moisture upstream...probably due to the modified continental
airmass that settled over the Gulf Coast in the last couple of
days.

It appears that a diffuse dryline will develop over the western
CWA on Friday with storms developing over the higher terrain and
moving east. As the upper low gets closer and with continued low
level southeast flow the dryline will sharpen some Friday night
and Saturday over the Permian Basin with the possibility of
convection spreading east. Stronger instability on Saturday with
MUCAPE values above 750 J and decent 0-6 km bulk shear some storms
could be strong or even severe. The biggest threat looks to be
strong winds and hail. The dryline retreats a bit Saturday night
before moving east on Sunday...with the threat of convection in
the eastern zones on Sunday.

The upper low will lift northeast Sunday into next week into the
Central Plains. This will bring westerly flow into the Southern
Plains resulting in dry and warm to hot temps. Ridging along the
West Coast will continue the WNW flow to the Southern Plains with
mainly dry weather and slightly above normal temps thru the middle
of next week.

Strobin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry air will remain over the region through
tonight and result in poor recovery areawide. Low level winds will
begin to back to the southeast over the Permian Basin Friday,
bring a little low level moisture to these areas, and keep RH/s
generally above 15 percent Friday afternoon along and east of a SE
NM to Big Bend line, despite above normal high temperatures.
Farther west, RH/s will drop to 10 to 15 percent, with
southeasterly winds increasing in many of these areas around
07/00Z. A few locations could have critical fire weather
conditions, especially in the Guadalupe Mountains and SE NM
Plains, but the duration is in question and a Fire Weather Watch
will not be issued. Another concern will be the possibility of
scattered thunderstorms developing in and near the Marfa Plateau,
and Davis and Guadalupe Mountains Friday afternoon. Since the air
near the surface will be pretty dry, any storms could produce dry
lightning strikes and strong gusty winds. Low level moisture will
begin to increase over these areas into Friday evening, so there
will be a chance of a wetting rain over the higher terrain Friday
night. Recovery Friday night will be poor west to fair east,
unless wetting rains occur over the west.

On Saturday, a dryline will form over the Permian Basin and could
result in scattered thunderstorms over the Permian Basin Saturday
afternoon.  In the drier air west of the dryline, above normal
temperatures will aid RH/s dropping to 5 to 15 percent.  Critical
fire weather conditions could occur Saturday afternoon/evening over
the Guadalupes and SE NM Plains, but this will depend on whether
these areas receive rain on Friday night. Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     88  57  87  61 /   0   0   0  20
Carlsbad                       90  55  91  59 /   0   0  20  20
Dryden                         92  62  91  65 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  90  64  92  64 /   0   0  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 83  58  86  56 /   0   0  20  30
Hobbs                          87  54  87  58 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                          83  46  86  52 /   0   0  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           89  60  87  61 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                         89  62  88  64 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           93  60  95  63 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/33
376
FXUS64 KMAF 051646
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1146 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals this afternoon and
tonight.  Winds will back to the southeast and become gusty this
afternoon, with gusts lasting to 06/03Z at some sites before
diminishing.  VFR conditions will continue Friday morning at all
area terminals, but southeast winds will rise to 25kt sustained,
if not higher, with higher gusts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

Upper ridge over the Rockies this morning will build east today
resulting in warm and dry wx for the region. However the next
upper trough will move ashore the CA coast today becoming a cut
off low. This low will wobble east the next couple of days before
lifting northeast Sunday. This low may bring storms to the region
this weekend. High pressure and mild wx returns after that.

Currently have mostly clear skies this morning with some cirrus
drifting up from Mexico.  Airmass has dried out over the last 24
hours with surface dewpts down to the 20s west and 30s east... this
is expected to increase back to the 40s and 50s over the next couple
of days.  The wind should come back around to the south today as new
leeside trough sets up.  Temps will be above normal the next several
days with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s this week.  Some
locations along the Rio Grande may push 100.

As the upper low approaches it will put the region into SW flow
aloft and allow shortwaves to track across the region.  Models
continue to develop the first precip out west on Friday then shift
east overnight and Saturday.  By Sunday most of the precip will be
pushed out of the area.  It looks like there will be a dryline to
focus convection on especially Saturday.  At this time not looking
like a big severe wx outbreak but there could be a few strong to
severe storms.  Next week some low pops skirt the eastern CWA but
nothing to get excited about.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     88  60  87  62 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       90  57  93  58 /   0   0  20  20
Dryden                         92  64  90  66 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  90  63  91  63 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 83  59  86  57 /   0   0  20  20
Hobbs                          87  56  87  57 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                          83  47  85  52 /   0   0  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           89  61  88  63 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                         89  62  88  63 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           93  62  94  62 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
388
FXUS64 KMAF 042330
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
630 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 05/00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across all area terminals through
06/00Z. Light and for the most part variable winds are expected
overnight, then winds will pick up out of the southeast during the
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 155 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging will continue to build east over the region today and
tomorrow, resulting in warming temperatures and sunny skies.
Temperatures are warming up nicely this afternoon and by the end of
peak heating, we should see readings in the mid 80s most
locations. Another beautiful day expected tomorrow with highs a
few degrees warmer than today due to the return of south winds.
Friday will be one of the warmest days of the week with highs in
the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Our next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Friday through
the weekend. A closed upper low will enter the SoCal coast Thursday,
eventually making its way to near the Four Corners region this
weekend. This would put west TX and southeast NM under unstable
southwest flow aloft, potentially aiding in thunderstorm development
during this time. At the surface, light east to northeasterly winds
today will veer to the south tonight as a surface trough develops
lee of the Rockies. As this surface trough strengthens, southerly
flow will increase, pulling modified Gulf moisture toward the region
heading into the weekend. Friday, a fairly weak dryline will be just
west of the region with dewpoints mainly in the 40s across the
forecast area. Would like to see higher dewpoints however with
daytime heating and a bit of upslope flow in play across the higher
terrain, it may not take much moisture for some isolated convection
to develop across the west and move east into the Tran Pecos through
the evening.

Slight chance for thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon and evening
as a dryline pushes east through the day. By mid afternoon, the
dryline looks to sharpen along the TX Panhandle/NM border
extending south through the Big Bend with dewpoints in the upper
40s to low 50s east of this line. With slightly better moisture,
instability and bulk shear expected Saturday, any storms that
develop may become strong to severe with large hail and damaging
winds possible. West winds will increase significantly across the
region Sunday, shunting moisture and best rain chances east for
the day. The dryline looks to retreat Sunday evening, returning
thunderstorm chances to far eastern zones. Will continue to fine
tune the forecast for this weekend over the next couple days so
stay tuned. Models show the upper low lifting northeast by Monday
as weak upper ridging begins to build over the western ConUS. This
pattern will result in dry and warming conditions through at least
mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  87  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       51  90  59  93 /   0   0   0  20
Dryden                         58  90  64  90 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  56  89  63  90 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 56  82  59  87 /   0   0   0  20
Hobbs                          49  87  56  88 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          44  82  51  86 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           54  88  61  89 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         55  88  62  89 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           53  93  62  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/10/70
492
FXUS64 KMAF 041855
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
155 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging will continue to build east over the region today and
tomorrow, resulting in warming temperatures and sunny skies.
Temperatures are warming up nicely this afternoon and by the end of
peak heating, we should see readings in the mid 80s most
locations. Another beautiful day expected tomorrow with highs a
few degrees warmer than today due to the return of south winds.
Friday will be one of the warmest days of the week with highs in
the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Our next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Friday through
the weekend. A closed upper low will enter the SoCal coast Thursday,
eventually making its way to near the Four Corners region this
weekend. This would put west TX and southeast NM under unstable
southwest flow aloft, potentially aiding in thunderstorm development
during this time. At the surface, light east to northeasterly winds
today will veer to the south tonight as a surface trough develops
lee of the Rockies. As this surface trough strengthens, southerly
flow will increase, pulling modified Gulf moisture toward the region
heading into the weekend. Friday, a fairly weak dryline will be just
west of the region with dewpoints mainly in the 40s across the
forecast area. Would like to see higher dewpoints however with
daytime heating and a bit of upslope flow in play across the higher
terrain, it may not take much moisture for some isolated convection
to develop across the west and move east into the Tran Pecos through
the evening.

Slight chance for thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon and evening
as a dryline pushes east through the day. By mid afternoon, the
dryline looks to sharpen along the TX Panhandle/NM border
extending south through the Big Bend with dewpoints in the upper
40s to low 50s east of this line. With slightly better moisture,
instability and bulk shear expected Saturday, any storms that
develop may become strong to severe with large hail and damaging
winds possible. West winds will increase significantly across the
region Sunday, shunting moisture and best rain chances east for
the day. The dryline looks to retreat Sunday evening, returning
thunderstorm chances to far eastern zones. Will continue to fine
tune the forecast for this weekend over the next couple days so
stay tuned. Models show the upper low lifting northeast by Monday
as weak upper ridging begins to build over the western ConUS. This
pattern will result in dry and warming conditions through at least
mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  87  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       51  90  59  93 /   0   0   0  20
Dryden                         58  90  64  90 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  56  89  63  90 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 56  82  59  87 /   0   0   0  20
Hobbs                          49  87  56  88 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          44  82  51  86 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           54  88  61  89 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         55  88  62  89 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           53  93  62  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/27
845
FXUS64 KMAF 041540
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1040 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, in light veering sfc
winds. Few, if any, high clouds expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 612 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions with light winds will prevail through the forecast
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge extending northward over the Rockies this morning will
build east the next few days.  This will result in warm and dry wx
for the region.  However the next upper trough will move ashore the
CA coast on Thursday becoming a cut off low.  This low will wobble
east before lifting northeast into the Central Plains.  This low may
bring storms to the region this weekend.  High pressure and mild
wx returns after that.

Currently have clear skies this morning with dewpts generally in the
30s and 40s... with a few 50s east.  Wind should be light and mainly
northerly today coming back around to the south overnight as a new
leeside trough sets up.  Temps will be near to above normal in the
80s this week with some 90s for the hotter locations.

As the upper low approaches it will put the region into SW flow
aloft and allow shortwaves to track across the region.  Models
develop first qpf out west on Friday then shifts east Saturday and
mainly out of the area Sunday.  Went ahead and added some low pops
along the TX/NM border Friday night.  May also have a dryline
wandering back and forth across the area to focus convection but
currently this feature is not looking too sharp.  Some of these
storms could be strong to severe... would be nice to have more
moisture to work with but long term guidance does not show much
increase in dewpts.  Current forecast keeps low pops mainly for the
eastern edge of the area into the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  87  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       50  89  58  93 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         58  90  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  56  89  62  90 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 54  82  58  87 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          49  87  57  88 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          42  82  49  86 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           54  88  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         55  88  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           52  93  62  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/27/44
085
FXUS64 KMAF 041112
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
612 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with light winds will prevail through the forecast
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge extending northward over the Rockies this morning will
build east the next few days.  This will result in warm and dry wx
for the region.  However the next upper trough will move ashore the
CA coast on Thursday becoming a cut off low.  This low will wobble
east before lifting northeast into the Central Plains.  This low may
bring storms to the region this weekend.  High pressure and mild
wx returns after that.

Currently have clear skies this morning with dewpts generally in the
30s and 40s... with a few 50s east.  Wind should be light and mainly
northerly today coming back around to the south overnight as a new
leeside trough sets up.  Temps will be near to above normal in the
80s this week with some 90s for the hotter locations.

As the upper low approaches it will put the region into SW flow
aloft and allow shortwaves to track across the region.  Models
develop first qpf out west on Friday then shifts east Saturday and
mainly out of the area Sunday.  Went ahead and added some low pops
along the TX/NM border Friday night.  May also have a dryline
wandering back and forth across the area to focus convection but
currently this feature is not looking too sharp.  Some of these
storms could be strong to severe... would be nice to have more
moisture to work with but long term guidance does not show much
increase in dewpts.  Current forecast keeps low pops mainly for the
eastern edge of the area into the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     84  53  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       83  50  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         88  58  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  86  56  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 76  54  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          80  49  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          78  42  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           85  54  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         84  55  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           87  52  93  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
988
FXUS64 KMAF 040815
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
315 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge extending northward over the Rockies this morning will
build east the next few days.  This will result in warm and dry wx
for the region.  However the next upper trough will move ashore the
CA coast on Thursday becoming a cut off low.  This low will wobble
east before lifting northeast into the Central Plains.  This low may
bring storms to the region this weekend.  High pressure and mild
wx returns after that.

Currently have clear skies this morning with dewpts generally in the
30s and 40s... with a few 50s east.  Wind should be light and mainly
northerly today coming back around to the south overnight as a new
leeside trough sets up.  Temps will be near to above normal in the
80s this week with some 90s for the hotter locations.

As the upper low approaches it will put the region into SW flow
aloft and allow shortwaves to track across the region.  Models
develop first qpf out west on Friday then shifts east Saturday and
mainly out of the area Sunday.  Went ahead and added some low pops
along the TX/NM border Friday night.  May also have a dryline
wandering back and forth across the area to focus convection but
currently this feature is not looking too sharp.  Some of these
storms could be strong to severe... would be nice to have more
moisture to work with but long term guidance does not show much
increase in dewpts.  Current forecast keeps low pops mainly for the
eastern edge of the area into the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     84  53  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       83  50  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         88  58  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  86  56  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 76  54  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          80  49  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          78  42  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           85  54  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         84  55  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           87  52  93  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/72
232
FXUS64 KMAF 040502
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1202 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few showers have moved off to the SE, with dry VFR conditions
expected to prevail through the forecast period. Winds will
generally be out of the N/NE, and should remain under 12KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 238 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The warming trend continues today under mostly sunny skies. Expect
afternoon temperatures to be around 5-10 degrees warmer than Monday
with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. An upper trough moving south
through the TX Panhandle this afternoon has generated some showers
and thunderstorms just north of the area. This activity may
affect portions of the northern Permian Basin and potentially
southeast NM through late afternoon so pulled mention of isolated
thunderstorms south across these areas. Tonight, expect low
temperatures generally in the 40s to low 50s.

Upper ridging will build east over the region Wednesday through the
end of the week while a closed upper low enters the CA coast,
eventually making its way to near the Four Corners region by the
weekend. At the surface, light east to northeasterly winds expected
tomorrow then southerly winds return as a surface trough develops
lee of the Rockies. As a result, the warming trend will continue
through Friday with highs climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s by
Friday afternoon. Areas along the Rio Grande Valley may approach the
century mark.

Low level moisture will be on the increase Thursday and more so
Friday as modest southeast winds increase. A weak dryline will form
on Friday and although thunderstorm parameters will not be ideal, we
may get enough heating during the afternoon for some isolated
convection near the dryline. Better chances for severe thunderstorms
will be Saturday afternoon near a sharpening dryline and then in the
evening as the dryline retreats westward. West winds will increase
across the region Sunday morning, shunting moisture and rain chances
east for the day. The dryline looks to retreat once again Sunday
evening, returning thunderstorm chances to eastern zones. The upper
low will slowly lift northeast Monday, ending rain chances through
mid week. Otherwise, near or slightly above normal temperatures
expected this weekend through the beginning of next work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     82  53  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       83  51  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         88  58  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  84  56  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 76  54  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          80  49  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          78  44  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           84  54  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         84  55  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           86  52  90  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
993
FXUS64 KMAF 032313
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
613 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few showers are moving through the area along a weak cold front
this afternoon but will not impact any TAF sites. VFR conditions
will remain through the period. North to northeast winds will
continue through most of the period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 238 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The warming trend continues today under mostly sunny skies. Expect
afternoon temperatures to be around 5-10 degrees warmer than Monday
with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. An upper trough moving south
through the TX Panhandle this afternoon has generated some showers
and thunderstorms just north of the area. This activity may
affect portions of the northern Permian Basin and potentially
southeast NM through late afternoon so pulled mention of isolated
thunderstorms south across these areas. Tonight, expect low
temperatures generally in the 40s to low 50s.

Upper ridging will build east over the region Wednesday through the
end of the week while a closed upper low enters the CA coast,
eventually making its way to near the Four Corners region by the
weekend. At the surface, light east to northeasterly winds expected
tomorrow then southerly winds return as a surface trough develops
lee of the Rockies. As a result, the warming trend will continue
through Friday with highs climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s by
Friday afternoon. Areas along the Rio Grande Valley may approach the
century mark.

Low level moisture will be on the increase Thursday and more so
Friday as modest southeast winds increase. A weak dryline will form
on Friday and although thunderstorm parameters will not be ideal, we
may get enough heating during the afternoon for some isolated
convection near the dryline. Better chances for severe thunderstorms
will be Saturday afternoon near a sharpening dryline and then in the
evening as the dryline retreats westward. West winds will increase
across the region Sunday morning, shunting moisture and rain chances
east for the day. The dryline looks to retreat once again Sunday
evening, returning thunderstorm chances to eastern zones. The upper
low will slowly lift northeast Monday, ending rain chances through
mid week. Otherwise, near or slightly above normal temperatures
expected this weekend through the beginning of next work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  82  53  86 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       47  83  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  88  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  52  84  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 50  76  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  80  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          42  78  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           50  84  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         52  84  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           51  86  52  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
892
FXUS64 KMAF 031938
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
238 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The warming trend continues today under mostly sunny skies. Expect
afternoon temperatures to be around 5-10 degrees warmer than Monday
with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. An upper trough moving south
through the TX Panhandle this afternoon has generated some showers
and thunderstorms just north of the area. This activity may
affect portions of the northern Permian Basin and potentially
southeast NM through late afternoon so pulled mention of isolated
thunderstorms south across these areas. Tonight, expect low
temperatures generally in the 40s to low 50s.

Upper ridging will build east over the region Wednesday through the
end of the week while a closed upper low enters the CA coast,
eventually making its way to near the Four Corners region by the
weekend. At the surface, light east to northeasterly winds expected
tomorrow then southerly winds return as a surface trough develops
lee of the Rockies. As a result, the warming trend will continue
through Friday with highs climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s by
Friday afternoon. Areas along the Rio Grande Valley may approach the
century mark.

Low level moisture will be on the increase Thursday and more so
Friday as modest southeast winds increase. A weak dryline will form
on Friday and although thunderstorm parameters will not be ideal, we
may get enough heating during the afternoon for some isolated
convection near the dryline. Better chances for severe thunderstorms
will be Saturday afternoon near a sharpening dryline and then in the
evening as the dryline retreats westward. West winds will increase
across the region Sunday morning, shunting moisture and rain chances
east for the day. The dryline looks to retreat once again Sunday
evening, returning thunderstorm chances to eastern zones. The upper
low will slowly lift northeast Monday, ending rain chances through
mid week. Otherwise, near or slightly above normal temperatures
expected this weekend through the beginning of next work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  82  53  86 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       47  83  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  88  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  52  84  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 50  76  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  80  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          42  78  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           50  84  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         52  84  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           51  86  52  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

49/27
568
FXUS64 KMAF 031720
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1220 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast. A weak wind
shift to the NW is expected at HOB/MAF around 00Z/01Z,
respectively and then around the E by 12Z. A isolated storm will
be possible E of HOB and N of MAF late afternoon/early evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Light E/SE winds
will shift to the N/NE late in the forecast period, but should
remain under 12KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An upper trough extending from the Great Lakes back across the
Central Plains this morning will swing south today and tonight.  An
upper ridge will build in behind this trough and remain over the
area the rest of the work week.  The next upper low will move ashore
the CA coast Thursday and roll across the SW US.  By Saturday this
low will be pushing into the area with SW flow aloft before lifting
northeastward Sunday and Monday.

Temps will continue to recover today with one last day in the 70s
for most of the region before 80s become widespread on Wednesday. By
Friday expect to see 90s across the Pecos river valley and over the
Big Bend.

Models do develop some precip today north of the area along a shear
axis associated with the upper trough.  Some light qpf tries to
make it down into the CWA this afternoon so went ahead and added
mention of isolated thunder north.  Currently no clouds across the
area this morning with a S/SE wind.  A weak boundary/wind shift
should drift down into the area today but not expect much from it.
Low level moisture remains fairly dry with dewpoints in the 30s
and 40s... will need to see this increase before can have much
chance of rain. By this weekend rain chances will increase with
approach of upper low but need to increase moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     52  82  54  86 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       49  82  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         58  87  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  54  84  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 51  76  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          46  80  49  86 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          42  77  44  84 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  83  55  87 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         53  83  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           53  86  55  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
049
FXUS64 KMAF 031133
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
633 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Light E/SE winds
will shift to the N/NE late in the forecast period, but should
remain under 12KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An upper trough extending from the Great Lakes back across the
Central Plains this morning will swing south today and tonight.  An
upper ridge will build in behind this trough and remain over the
area the rest of the work week.  The next upper low will move ashore
the CA coast Thursday and roll across the SW US.  By Saturday this
low will be pushing into the area with SW flow aloft before lifting
northeastward Sunday and Monday.

Temps will continue to recover today with one last day in the 70s
for most of the region before 80s become widespread on Wednesday. By
Friday expect to see 90s across the Pecos river valley and over the
Big Bend.

Models do develop some precip today north of the area along a shear
axis associated with the upper trough.  Some light qpf tries to
make it down into the CWA this afternoon so went ahead and added
mention of isolated thunder north.  Currently no clouds across the
area this morning with a S/SE wind.  A weak boundary/wind shift
should drift down into the area today but not expect much from it.
Low level moisture remains fairly dry with dewpts in the 30s and
40s... will need to see this increase before can have much chance of
rain.  By this weekend rain chances will increase with approach of
upper low but need to increase moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77  52  82  54 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       79  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         79  58  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  80  54  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 75  51  76  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          76  46  80  49 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          78  42  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           78  52  83  55 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         79  53  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           82  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
077
FXUS64 KMAF 030827
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
327 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
An upper trough extending from the Great Lakes back across the
Central Plains this morning will swing south today and tonight.  An
upper ridge will build in behind this trough and remain over the
area the rest of the work week.  The next upper low will move ashore
the CA coast Thursday and roll across the SW US.  By Saturday this
low will be pushing into the area with SW flow aloft before lifting
northeastward Sunday and Monday.

Temps will continue to recover today with one last day in the 70s
for most of the region before 80s become widespread on Wednesday. By
Friday expect to see 90s across the Pecos river valley and over the
Big Bend.

Models do develop some precip today north of the area along a shear
axis associated with the upper trough.  Some light qpf tries to
make it down into the CWA this afternoon so went ahead and added
mention of isolated thunder north.  Currently no clouds across the
area this morning with a S/SE wind.  A weak boundary/wind shift
should drift down into the area today but not expect much from it.
Low level moisture remains fairly dry with dewpts in the 30s and
40s... will need to see this increase before can have much chance of
rain.  By this weekend rain chances will increase with approach of
upper low but need to increase moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77  52  82  54 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       79  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         79  58  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  80  54  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 75  51  76  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          76  46  80  49 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          78  42  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           78  52  83  55 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         79  53  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           82  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/72
808
FXUS64 KMAF 030449
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1149 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with light E/SE winds will prevail through the
forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 159 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

Tranquil wx is expected overnight as light a se wind returns with
a surface high just off to the e by 12Z Tue. Tue PM a shrtwv trof
will drop swd thru the Panhandle/wrn OK with some precip along the
leading edge of trough axis. Precip is mostly expected to
dissipate before entering nrn CWFA, but have included low order
PoPs across the n-ne. A bit of a secondary surge of surface high
pressure will move in thru Wed AM and light winds will continue.
Temps will slowly moderate back into the 80s by Wed. Thickness
will continue to rise into Thur PM as an amplified mid level ridge
moves into the area aiding the return of above normal temps. Also
gusty se winds will return to most areas Thur with development of
surface trof to the w. Meanwhile a closed upper low will move
into SOCAL by Fri AM. Said se surface flow will attempt to bring
low level moisture into the CWFA Fri PM, but will probably not get
established until after peak heating. 7h-5h LR/s will be very
steep and we would not be surprised to see a few high based TSRA
develop in far SW reaches of CWFA Fri PM. The better chance for
storms appears to be Sat when moisture is better along with
falling heights (cooling mid levels). Storms are possible Sunday
too per ECMWF. Fri/Sat could be hot across parts of the Trans
Pecos/SE NM with 85h temps U20C-30C.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  76  51  81 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       45  80  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         52  79  56  85 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  50  79  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  74  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  77  47  79 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          37  76  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  79  53  83 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         48  79  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           48  82  53  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
879
FXUS64 KMAF 022259
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
559 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide tonight and Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 159 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

Tranquil wx is expected overnight as light a se wind returns with
a surface high just off to the e by 12Z Tue. Tue PM a shrtwv trof
will drop swd thru the Panhandle/wrn OK with some precip along the
leading edge of trough axis. Precip is mostly expected to
dissipate before entering nrn CWFA, but have included low order
PoPs across the n-ne. A bit of a secondary surge of surface high
pressure will move in thru Wed AM and light winds will continue.
Temps will slowly moderate back into the 80s by Wed. Thickness
will continue to rise into Thur PM as an amplified mid level ridge
moves into the area aiding the return of above normal temps. Also
gusty se winds will return to most areas Thur with development of
surface trof to the w. Meanwhile a closed upper low will move
into SOCAL by Fri AM. Said se surface flow will attempt to bring
low level moisture into the CWFA Fri PM, but will probably not get
established until after peak heating. 7h-5h LR/s will be very
steep and we would not be surprised to see a few high based TSRA
develop in far SW reaches of CWFA Fri PM. The better chance for
storms appears to be Sat when moisture is better along with
falling heights (cooling mid levels). Storms are possible Sunday
too per ECMWF. Fri/Sat could be hot across parts of the Trans
Pecos/SE NM with 85h temps U20C-30C.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  76  51  81 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       45  80  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         52  79  56  85 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  50  79  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  74  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  77  47  79 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          37  76  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  79  53  83 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         48  79  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           48  82  53  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
596
FXUS64 KMAF 021859
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
159 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Tranquil wx is expected overnight as light a se wind returns with
a surface high just off to the e by 12Z Tue. Tue PM a shrtwv trof
will drop swd thru the Panhandle/wrn OK with some precip along the
leading edge of trough axis. Precip is mostly expected to
dissipate before entering nrn CWFA, but have included low order
PoPs across the n-ne. A bit of a secondary surge of surface high
pressure will move in thru Wed AM and light winds will continue.
Temps will slowly moderate back into the 80s by Wed. Thickness
will continue to rise into Thur PM as an amplified mid level ridge
moves into the area aiding the return of above normal temps. Also
gusty se winds will return to most areas Thur with development of
surface trof to the w. Meanwhile a closed upper low will move
into SOCAL by Fri AM. Said se surface flow will attempt to bring
low level moisture into the CWFA Fri PM, but will probably not get
established until after peak heating. 7h-5h LR/s will be very
steep and we would not be surprised to see a few high based TSRA
develop in far SW reaches of CWFA Fri PM. The better chance for
storms appears to be Sat when moisture is better along with
falling heights (cooling mid levels). Storms are possible Sunday
too per ECMWF. Fri/Sat could be hot across parts of the Trans
Pecos/SE NM with 85h temps U20C-30C.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  76  51  81 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       45  80  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         52  79  56  85 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  50  79  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  74  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  77  47  79 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          37  76  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  79  53  83 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         48  79  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           48  82  53  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
214
FXUS64 KMAF 021713
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1213 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Low cloud deck will continue to quickly
erode early this afternoon with clear skies expected shortly.
Northerly winds will veer to the southeast through the day and
remain fairly light through the TAF cycle.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Radar this morning is showing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the southeastern Permian Basin. Lift from the
right rear quadrant of a departing jet streak is combining with
low level isentropic lift to cause this convection which will
diminish after 12Z as the jet max moves off to the east. Skies
will gradually clear this afternoon but thanks to a continued
light northerly flow high temps today will still be well below
normal.

An upper level ridge will develop over the western U.S. by
Wednesday causing temps to rise back to near or slightly above
normal for the latter half of the week. An upper low will move
onto the west coast and approach the CWA by the weekend backing
upper flow and giving a return of rain chances. The latest model
runs are slightly stronger and slower than the runs from 24 hours
ago which would help our chances for seeing rain this weekend. For
now though will keep low chance PoPs in the forecast until better
model consistency is seen with regards to strength and track of
the low.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  45  75  50 /  10   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       68  45  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         70  53  78  57 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  67  50  78  54 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  48  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          66  44  75  47 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          65  39  75  42 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           70  49  78  54 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         70  50  79  55 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           72  48  82  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49
310
FXUS64 KMAF 021113
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
613 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals. A weakening upper level
storm system across the Rockies and Plains will generate considerable
clouds this morning in the 4k to 8k layer. Decreasing clouds are
expected this afternoon with skies clearing by mid to late afternoon
and continuing tonight. Winds will generally be northerly at 10
to 15 mph this morning and then become easterly at 5 to 10 mph
this afternoon and this evening.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Radar this morning is showing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the southeastern Permian Basin. Lift from the
right rear quadrant of a departing jet streak is combining with
low level isentropic lift to cause this convection which will
diminish after 12Z as the jet max moves off to the east. Skies
will gradually clear this afternoon but thanks to a continued
light northerly flow high temps today will still be well below
normal.

An upper level ridge will develop over the western U.S. by
Wednesday causing temps to rise back to near or slightly above
normal for the latter half of the week. An upper low will move
onto the west coast and approach the CWA by the weekend backing
upper flow and giving a return of rain chances. The latest model
runs are slightly stronger and slower than the runs from 24 hours
ago which would help our chances for seeing rain this weekend. For
now though will keep low chance PoPs in the forecast until better
model consistency is seen with regards to strength and track of
the low.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  45  75  50 /  10   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       68  45  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         70  53  78  57 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  67  50  78  54 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  48  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          66  44  75  47 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          65  39  75  42 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           70  49  78  54 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         70  50  79  55 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           72  48  82  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/10
561
FXUS64 KMAF 020816
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
316 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Radar this morning is showing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the southeastern Permian Basin. Lift from the
right rear quadrant of a departing jet streak is combining with
low level isentropic lift to cause this convection which will
diminish after 12Z as the jet max moves off to the east. Skies
will gradually clear this afternoon but thanks to a continued
light northerly flow high temps today will still be well below
normal.

An upper level ridge will develop over the western U.S. by
Wednesday causing temps to rise back to near or slightly above
normal for the latter half of the week. An upper low will move
onto the west coast and approach the CWA by the weekend backing
upper flow and giving a return of rain chances. The latest model
runs are slightly stronger and slower than the runs from 24 hours
ago which would help our chances for seeing rain this weekend. For
now though will keep low chance PoPs in the forecast until better
model consistency is seen with regards to strength and track of
the low.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  45  75  50 /  10   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       68  45  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         70  53  78  57 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  67  50  78  54 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  48  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          66  44  75  47 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          65  39  75  42 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           70  49  78  54 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         70  50  79  55 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           72  48  82  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/10
681
FXUS64 KMAF 020456
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1156 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals. A weakening upper level
storm system across the Rockies and Plains will generate
considerable clouds through Monday morning in the 4k to 8k layer.
Decreasing clouds are expected Monday afternoon. Winds will
generally be northerly at 10 to 15 mph through Monday morning and
then become easterly at 5 to 10 mph Monday afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 538 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

It appears the low cloud deck will persist over all southeast New
Mexico and west texas overnight, but will mainly stay low VFR.  KCNM
and KHOB may see a period of high MVFR ceilings through 02/04Z, but
do not expect these to last.  The cloud deck will dissipate Monday,
likely by 02/15Z, or shortly thereafter.  VFR will prevail after.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

The unseasonably strong cold front has already made it to near
the Rio Grande with scattered very light showers still across the
E-NE PB. Have made some late adjustment to drop high temps a few
degrees and lower PoPs across the west for the rest of the
afternoon. Isentropic ascent along I295-305 has been persisting,
but will tend to decrease overnight as winds in that layer back to
NE. Higher up on the I305 surface there will a boundary across the
ern Lower Trans Pecos and points ewd which will serve to renew
precip possibilities toward early Mon AM thru 18Z, aided somewhat
by an upper jet passing to the N. After 18Z precip chance will
drop off to nil. After a cool start Mon AM (widespread lows in the
40s) some afternoon insolation will serve to push high temps into
the M60s-L70s for most areas, warmer along the Rio Grande. A mid
level trof is to drop sewd early Wed AM which may serve to build
surface high pressure south at least into the nrn CWFA. Otherwise
thickness will increase Wed PM and a warming trend will follow
through Sat. It does look hot and dry Fri-Sat across the Trans
Pecos/SE NM with 85h temps of 25-30C. Dryline storms will be
possible east and south, maybe as early as Fri if moisture return
occurs quick enough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  44  66  46 /  30  30  10   0
Carlsbad                       54  43  68  46 /  30  10   0   0
Dryden                         76  54  70  52 /  40  50  30  10
Fort Stockton                  63  49  68  50 /  30  20  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  38  62  47 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          52  40  67  44 /  30  10   0   0
Marfa                          63  39  65  39 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           61  45  69  48 /  30  20  10   0
Odessa                         61  45  69  49 /  30  20  10   0
Wink                           61  47  72  48 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99
673
FXUS64 KMAF 012238
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
538 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

It appears the low cloud deck will persist over all southeast New
Mexico and west texas overnight, but will mainly stay low VFR.  KCNM
and KHOB may see a period of high MVFR ceilings through 02/04Z, but
do not expect these to last.  The cloud deck will dissipate Monday,
likely by 02/15Z, or shortly thereafter.  VFR will prevail after.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

The unseasonably strong cold front has already made it to near
the Rio Grande with scattered very light showers still across the
E-NE PB. Have made some late adjustment to drop high temps a few
degrees and lower PoPs across the west for the rest of the
afternoon. Isentropic ascent along I295-305 has been persisting,
but will tend to decrease overnight as winds in that layer back to
NE. Higher up on the I305 surface there will a boundary across the
ern Lower Trans Pecos and points ewd which will serve to renew
precip possibilities toward early Mon AM thru 18Z, aided somewhat
by an upper jet passing to the N. After 18Z precip chance will
drop off to nil. After a cool start Mon AM (widespread lows in the
40s) some afternoon insolation will serve to push high temps into
the M60s-L70s for most areas, warmer along the Rio Grande. A mid
level trof is to drop sewd early Wed AM which may serve to build
surface high pressure south at least into the nrn CWFA. Otherwise
thickness will increase Wed PM and a warming trend will follow
through Sat. It does look hot and dry Fri-Sat across the Trans
Pecos/SE NM with 85h temps of 25-30C. Dryline storms will be
possible east and south, maybe as early as Fri if moisture return
occurs quick enough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  66  46  76 /  30  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       43  68  46  78 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  70  52  78 /  50  30  10   0
Fort Stockton                  49  68  50  78 /  20  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 38  62  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  67  44  75 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          39  65  39  75 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  69  48  78 /  20  10   0   0
Odessa                         45  69  49  78 /  20  10   0   0
Wink                           47  72  48  81 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
669
FXUS64 KMAF 011900
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
200 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The unseasonably strong cold front has already made it to near
the Rio Grande with scattered very light showers still across the
E-NE PB. Have made some late adjustment to drop high temps a few
degrees and lower PoPs across the west for the rest of the
afternoon. Isentropic ascent along I295-305 has been persisting,
but will tend to decrease overnight as winds in that layer back to
NE. Higher up on the I305 surface there will a boundary across the
ern Lower Trans Pecos and points ewd which will serve to renew
precip possibilities toward early Mon AM thru 18Z, aided somewhat
by an upper jet passing to the N. After 18Z precip chance will
drop off to nil. After a cool start Mon AM (widespread lows in the
40s) some afternoon insolation will serve to push high temps into
the M60s-L70s for most areas, warmer along the Rio Grande. A mid
level trof is to drop sewd early Wed AM which may serve to build
surface high pressure south at least into the nrn CWFA. Otherwise
thickness will increase Wed PM and a warming trend will follow
through Sat. It does look hot and dry Fri-Sat across the Trans
Pecos/SE NM with 85h temps of 25-30C. Dryline storms will be
possible east and south, maybe as early as Fri if moisture return
occurs quick enough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  66  46  76 /  30  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       43  68  46  78 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  70  52  78 /  50  30  10   0
Fort Stockton                  49  68  50  78 /  20  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 38  62  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  67  44  75 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          39  65  39  75 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  69  48  78 /  20  10   0   0
Odessa                         45  69  49  78 /  20  10   0   0
Wink                           47  72  48  81 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
515
FXUS64 KMAF 011732
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns the next 24 hours as most terminals will
continue to see VFR flight conditions. Currently have a 3-4kft cloud
deck over the region along with gusty NE winds thanks to a strong
cold front that moved through early this morning. FST is the only
terminal reporting MVFR cigs but should return to VFR by mid
afternoon. Could see brief periods of light rain today but not
widespread enough to warrant mention in the TAF. Thunder may be
possible later this afternoon particularly near FST however
confidence is too low attm to include mention. Otherwise, winds will
continue to diminish through the afternoon.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The cold front that was hanging around the area yesterday will get
a good push south as high pressure builds into eastern New Mexico
and West Texas this morning. Already we are seeing increasing
north winds to our north with temperatures dropping into the 40s.
The strong cold air advection will be aided by increasing clouds
to give much cooler highs today than we have seen in quite a
while. No doubt the calendar day high in most locations will be
what the temperature was around midnight, but there is still the
question of the afternoon highs for today. The MET/MAV are both
showing highs around 20 degrees colder than those seen yesterday
and given pretty good run to run consistency, decided to stay
close to guidance highs for this forecast though did go a few
degrees above just in case there are some afternoon breaks in the
cloud coverage. Models have been trending lighter with QPF amounts
on rainfall today likely due to the upper low producing the rain
weakening as it moves northeast into the plains later today.
Therefore have lowered PoPs today and even those areas that do see
precipitation will probably only see light amounts.

The surface high will only slowly move east providing unseasonably
cool temps through Tuesday before the heat returns midweek. An
upper level ridge will develop over the Rocky Mountains late in
the week causing highs to rise back to near 90 degrees. Another
large low pressure system will move into the west coast over the
weekend and may provide our next chance for rainfall. Models are
showing some disagreement with the track of this low with the GFS
being the strongest and farthest south. It is showing some decent
QPF over the weekend for our CWA however it is also showing the
low weakening and moving northeast as it moves across the Rockies.
That would be very similar to the current low which models were
bullish with precip early on and are now backing off so will keep
PoPs low in the extended for now.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  45  69  45 /  30  30  20   0
Carlsbad                       59  42  69  45 /  30  10   0   0
Dryden                         77  55  70  54 /  30  60  30  10
Fort Stockton                  65  49  67  50 /  30  40  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 57  39  62  46 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          56  41  67  44 /  30  10   0   0
Marfa                          66  39  66  38 /  10  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           63  47  70  49 /  30  30  10   0
Odessa                         63  48  70  50 /  30  30  10   0
Wink                           64  48  73  49 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49
629
FXUS64 KMAF 011102
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
602 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
An upper level storm system across Arizona will impact the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours
with increasing winds and clouds. Cloud bases will lower to
around 3500 feet (VFR) this morning at most terminals and continue
into this evening. Included a PROB30 group for MVFR conditions in
thunderstorms at KFST from 21z to 03z. Confidence was not high
enough to mention precipitation at any of the other terminals but
will continue to monitor. Generally north to northeast winds of 20
to 30 mph with higher gusts are expected through mid afternoon
and then diminish to 10 to 20 mph later this afternoon and evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The cold front that was hanging around the area yesterday will get
a good push south as high pressure builds into eastern New Mexico
and West Texas this morning. Already we are seeing increasing
north winds to our north with temperatures dropping into the 40s.
The strong cold air advection will be aided by increasing clouds
to give much cooler highs today than we have seen in quite a
while. No doubt the calendar day high in most locations will be
what the temperature was around midnight, but there is still the
question of the afternoon highs for today. The MET/MAV are both
showing highs around 20 degrees colder than those seen yesterday
and given pretty good run to run consistency, decided to stay
close to guidance highs for this forecast though did go a few
degrees above just in case there are some afternoon breaks in the
cloud coverage. Models have been trending lighter with QPF amounts
on rainfall today likely due to the upper low producing the rain
weakening as it moves northeast into the plains later today.
Therefore have lowered PoPs today and even those areas that do see
precipitation will probably only see light amounts.

The surface high will only slowly move east providing unseasonably
cool temps through Tuesday before the heat returns midweek. An
upper level ridge will develop over the Rocky Mountains late in
the week causing highs to rise back to near 90 degrees. Another
large low pressure system will move into the west coast over the
weekend and may provide our next chance for rainfall. Models are
showing some disagreement with the track of this low with the GFS
being the strongest and farthest south. It is showing some decent
QPF over the weekend for our CWA however it is also showing the
low weakening and moving northeast as it moves across the Rockies.
That would be very similar to the current low which models were
bullish with precip early on and are now backing off so will keep
PoPs low in the extended for now.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  45  69  45 /  30  30  20   0
Carlsbad                       59  42  69  45 /  30  10   0   0
Dryden                         77  55  70  54 /  30  60  30  10
Fort Stockton                  65  49  67  50 /  30  40  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 57  39  62  46 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          56  41  67  44 /  30  10   0   0
Marfa                          66  39  66  38 /  10  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           63  47  70  49 /  30  30  10   0
Odessa                         63  48  70  50 /  30  30  10   0
Wink                           64  48  73  49 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/12
013
FXUS64 KMAF 010849
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
349 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The cold front that was hanging around the area yesterday will get
a good push south as high pressure builds into eastern New Mexico
and West Texas this morning. Already we are seeing increasing
north winds to our north with temperatures dropping into the 40s.
The strong cold air advection will be aided by increasing clouds
to give much cooler highs today than we have seen in quite a
while. No doubt the calendar day high in most locations will be
what the temperature was around midnight, but there is still the
question of the afternoon highs for today. The MET/MAV are both
showing highs around 20 degrees colder than those seen yesterday
and given pretty good run to run consistency, decided to stay
close to guidance highs for this forecast though did go a few
degrees above just in case there are some afternoon breaks in the
cloud coverage. Models have been trending lighter with QPF amounts
on rainfall today likely due to the upper low producing the rain
weakening as it moves northeast into the plains later today.
Therefore have lowered PoPs today and even those areas that do see
precipitation will probably only see light amounts.

The surface high will only slowly move east providing unseasonably
cool temps through Tuesday before the heat returns midweek. An
upper level ridge will develop over the Rocky Mountains late in
the week causing highs to rise back to near 90 degrees. Another
large low pressure system will move into the west coast over the
weekend and may provide our next chance for rainfall. Models are
showing some disagreement with the track of this low with the GFS
being the strongest and farthest south. It is showing some decent
QPF over the weekend for our CWA however it is also showing the
low weakening and moving northeast as it moves across the Rockies.
That would be very similar to the current low which models were
bullish with precip early on and are now backing off so will keep
PoPs low in the extended for now.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  45  69  45 /  30  30  20   0
Carlsbad                       59  42  69  45 /  30  10   0   0
Dryden                         77  55  70  54 /  30  60  30  10
Fort Stockton                  65  49  67  50 /  30  40  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 57  39  62  46 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          56  41  67  44 /  30  10   0   0
Marfa                          66  39  66  38 /  10  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           63  47  70  49 /  30  30  10   0
Odessa                         63  48  70  50 /  30  30  10   0
Wink                           64  48  73  49 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/10
630
FXUS64 KMAF 010519
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1219 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
An upper level storm system across Arizona will impact the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours
with increasing winds and clouds. Cloud bases will lower to
around 3500 feet (VFR) between 09 and 12z Sunday at most
terminals with tempo MVFR ceilings expected at KMAF, KINK, and
KFST IN THE 12Z TO 16Z timeframe. Included a PROB30 group for
MVFR conditions in thunderstorms at KFST from 15z to 24z.
Confidence was not high enough to mention precipitation at any of
the other terminals but will continue to monitor. Generally north
to northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts are expected
to develop overnight and Sunday morning and then diminish to 10
to 20 mph Sunday afternoon.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 622 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Variable winds are expected to weaken somewhat and become easterly
to southeasterly between 03z - 06z. Winds will then intensify and
become gusty out of the northeast and north Sunday morning as a
cold front moves into the area. Low ceilings are expected for MAF
around 12z and could affect other terminals such as HOB and INK.
There is a chance of rain and thunderstorms beginning around 15z
but confidence is not high enough to put into the TAFs at this
time. Model guidance is showing the low clouds to linger into the
afternoon hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 159 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Surface pressure falls signal retreat of weak boundary back to the
n today with seasonably warm temps and unseasonably dry air s of
boundary. Boundary will surge back to the south late tonight with
the help of rain cooled air across CO/NM and front will arrive
before 12Z across the nrn half of CWFA and nearing the Rio Grande
near 00Z/Mon. Light precip is expected to develop in wake of the
front across parts of the PB especially btwn 15Z-21Z then dissipate
and redevelop farther s into the Lower Trans Pecos/PB after
06Z/Mon. Rainfall amounts may total near .50" in a few locations,
but most amounts are expected to be less. Much cooler temps will
follow the front Sun/Mon, with highs 10-25 degrees below normal!
Temp will be warmer Tue with drier air and lesser influence from
surface high pressure, but temps will still be below normal. More
seasonal temps are expected Wed-Fri with amplified mid level
ridging making a presence. A dryline may form Fri/Sat and GFS does
develop storms across the PB within falling heights and LLJ set-
up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  46  66  48 /  30  50  30  10
Carlsbad                       62  44  67  46 /  20  10  10  10
Dryden                         82  56  70  55 /  30  60  30  10
Fort Stockton                  71  47  66  50 /  20  50  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 56  38  60  45 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          55  42  65  44 /  40  30  10  10
Marfa                          72  41  64  40 /   0  30  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           61  48  66  47 /  40  40  30  10
Odessa                         61  45  66  48 /  40  40  30  10
Wink                           66  47  70  50 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
488
FXUS64 KMAF 302322
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
622 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Variable winds are expected to weaken somewhat and become easterly
to southeasterly between 03z - 06z. Winds will then intensify and
become gusty out of the northeast and north Sunday morning as a
cold front moves into the area. Low ceilings are expected for MAF
around 12z and could affect other terminals such as HOB and INK.
There is a chance of rain and thunderstorms beginning around 15z
but confidence is not high enough to put into the TAFs at this
time. Model guidance is showing the low clouds to linger into the
afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 159 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Surface pressure falls signal retreat of weak boundary back to the
n today with seasonably warm temps and unseasonably dry air s of
boundary. Boundary will surge back to the south late tonight with
the help of rain cooled air across CO/NM and front will arrive
before 12Z across the nrn half of CWFA and nearing the Rio Grande
near 00Z/Mon. Light precip is expected to develop in wake of the
front across parts of the PB especially btwn 15Z-21Z then dissipate
and redevelop farther s into the Lower Trans Pecos/PB after
06Z/Mon. Rainfall amounts may total near .50" in a few locations,
but most amounts are expected to be less. Much cooler temps will
follow the front Sun/Mon, with highs 10-25 degrees below normal!
Temp will be warmer Tue with drier air and lesser influence from
surface high pressure, but temps will still be below normal. More
seasonal temps are expected Wed-Fri with amplified mid level
ridging making a presence. A dryline may form Fri/Sat and GFS does
develop storms across the PB within falling heights and LLJ set-
up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  62  46  66 /  10  30  50  30
Carlsbad                       49  62  44  67 /  10  20  10  10
Dryden                         60  82  56  70 /  10  30  60  30
Fort Stockton                  54  71  47  66 /  10  20  50  30
Guadalupe Pass                 44  56  38  60 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          46  55  42  65 /  10  40  30  10
Marfa                          38  72  41  64 /   0   0  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           51  61  48  66 /  10  40  40  30
Odessa                         52  61  45  66 /  10  40  40  30
Wink                           53  66  47  70 /  10  20  40  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
655
FXUS64 KMAF 301859
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
159 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Surface pressure falls signal retreat of weak boundary back to the
n today with seasonably warm temps and unseasonably dry air s of
boundary. Boundary will surge back to the south late tonight with
the help of rain cooled air across CO/NM and front will arrive
before 12Z across the nrn half of CWFA and nearing the Rio Grande
near 00Z/Mon. Light precip is expected to develop in wake of the
front across parts of the PB especially btwn 15Z-21Z then dissipate
and redevelop farther s into the Lower Trans Pecos/PB after
06Z/Mon. Rainfall amounts may total near .50" in a few locations,
but most amounts are expected to be less. Much cooler temps will
follow the front Sun/Mon, with highs 10-25 degrees below normal!
Temp will be warmer Tue with drier air and lesser influence from
surface high pressure, but temps will still be below normal. More
seasonal temps are expected Wed-Fri with amplified mid level
ridging making a presence. A dryline may form Fri/Sat and GFS does
develop storms across the PB within falling heights and LLJ set-
up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  62  46  66 /  10  30  50  30
Carlsbad                       49  62  44  67 /  10  20  10  10
Dryden                         60  82  56  70 /  10  30  60  30
Fort Stockton                  54  71  47  66 /  10  20  50  30
Guadalupe Pass                 44  56  38  60 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          46  55  42  65 /  10  40  30  10
Marfa                          38  72  41  64 /   0   0  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           51  61  48  66 /  10  40  40  30
Odessa                         52  61  45  66 /  10  40  40  30
Wink                           53  66  47  70 /  10  20  40  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
902
FXUS64 KMAF 301748
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1248 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concerns for the next 24 hours is the potential
for low cigs and TSRA affecting some terminals Sunday morning. VFR
conditions will prevail areawide through today with fairly light
winds and mostly clear skies in place. A cold front is expected
early Sunday morning with gusty NE winds at all terminals by mid
morning. Will likely see low cigs fill in behind the front along
with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Confidence in MVFR
development is highest at HOB, INK and MAF but later shifts will
need to add mention at other terminals if confidence increases.
Also, did not include mention of rain/thunder activity potential in
the TAF attm for Sunday morning, however this may need to be added
in a subsequent issuance.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A weakening upper level low pressure system is forecast to move
eastward through tonight along the Nebraska, Kansas border. Behind
this system a weak cold front across the northern Permian Basin
and eastern New Mexico Plains will settle south towards the Pecos
River this morning and then push back east toward the northeast
Permian basin this afternoon due to heating and mixing. Winds will
be much lighter today with near normal temperatures under partly
to mostly sunny skies.

For tonight the cold front will intensify and make a renewed
surge to the south toward the Pecos River. In the meantime
the next southern stream upper level low pressure system will
settle into Arizona by 12z Sunday Morning. Isentropic lift
ahead of the approaching upper level system will begin tonight
with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible along and
north of the boundary.

For Sunday through Monday the chance for showers and thunderstorms
will increase areawide as the cold front continues to sink toward
Mexico with isentropic lift above the cold front and large scale
lift associated with the upper jet increase. Unseasonably cool
temperatures are expected in this pattern across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico in the cooler air with widespread clouds and
some precipitation.

Precipitation chances should decrease significantly behind this
system Tuesday through next Friday as upper level high pressure
slowly builds over the forecast area from the west. There could
be isolated afternoon thunderstorms on some of these days in the
mountains and possibly portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains
but will not mention at this time that far out into the forecast.
Temperatures are expected to warm but remain below normal Monday
through Wednesday and then climb to near normal values by next
Thursday and Friday.

The next Pacific system could bring the next chance for
precipitation to west Texas by next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     81  52  66  49 /   0  10  30  50
Carlsbad                       82  50  61  47 /  10  10  30  20
Dryden                         92  63  83  59 /   0  10  30  60
Fort Stockton                  87  57  76  51 /   0  10  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 76  47  59  41 /   0   0  20  20
Hobbs                          78  47  57  45 /   0  10  30  30
Marfa                          78  42  75  42 /  10   0  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           84  54  67  50 /   0  10  40  40
Odessa                         84  55  67  50 /   0  10  40  40
Wink                           88  55  69  51 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49
802
FXUS64 KMAF 301118
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
618 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A weak cold front has moved into the Permian Basin but is becoming
stationary near MAF. Winds will be light and variable at MAF, HOB,
INK the next few hours then become westerly along with the other
TAF locations through the remainder of the day. This evening the
front will get a renewed push south shifting winds from the
northeast by 06Z. VFR conditions will remain through most of the
next 24 hours though there may be some MVFR CIGs developing near
MAF/HOB at the end of the TAF period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A weakening upper level low pressure system is forecast to move
eastward through tonight along the Nebraska, Kansas border. Behind
this system a weak cold front across the northern Permian Basin
and eastern New Mexico Plains will settle south towards the Pecos
River this morning and then push back east toward the northeast
Permian basin this afternoon due to heating and mixing. Winds will
be much lighter today with near normal temperatures under partly
to mostly sunny skies.

For tonight the cold front will intensify and make a renewed
surge to the south toward the Pecos River. In the meantime
the next southern stream upper level low pressure system will
settle into Arizona by 12z Sunday Morning. Isentropic lift
ahead of the approaching upper level system will begin tonight
with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible along and
north of the boundary.

For Sunday through Monday the chance for showers and thunderstorms
will increase areawide as the cold front continues to sink toward
Mexico with isentropic lift above the cold front and large scale
lift associated with the upper jet increase. Unseasonably cool
temperatures are expected in this pattern across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico in the cooler air with widespread clouds and
some precipitation.

Precipitation chances should decrease significantly behind this
system Tuesday through next Friday as upper level high pressure
slowly builds over the forecast area from the west. There could
be isolated afternoon thunderstorms on some of these days in the
mountains and possibly portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains
but will not mention at this time that far out into the forecast.
Temperatures are expected to warm but remain below normal Monday
through Wednesday and then climb to near normal values by next
Thursday and Friday.

The next Pacific system could bring the next chance for
precipitation to west Texas by next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     81  52  66  49 /   0  10  30  50
Carlsbad                       82  50  61  47 /  10  10  30  20
Dryden                         92  63  83  59 /   0  10  30  60
Fort Stockton                  87  57  76  51 /   0  10  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 76  47  59  41 /   0   0  20  20
Hobbs                          78  47  57  45 /   0  10  30  30
Marfa                          78  42  75  42 /  10   0  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           84  54  67  50 /   0  10  40  40
Odessa                         84  55  67  50 /   0  10  40  40
Wink                           88  55  69  51 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
086
FXUS64 KMAF 300752
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
252 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A weakening upper level low pressure system is forecast to move
eastward through tonight along the Nebraska, Kansas border. Behind
this system a weak cold front across the northern Permian Basin
and eastern New Mexico Plains will settle south towards the Pecos
River this morning and then push back east toward the northeast
Permian basin this afternoon due to heating and mixing. Winds will
be much lighter today with near normal temperatures under partly
to mostly sunny skies.

For tonight the cold front will intensify and make a renewed
surge to the south toward the Pecos River. In the meantime
the next southern stream upper level low pressure system will
settle into Arizona by 12z Sunday Morning. Isentropic lift
ahead of the approaching upper level system will begin tonight
with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible along and
north of the boundary.

For Sunday through Monday the chance for showers and thunderstorms
will increase areawide as the cold front continues to sink toward
Mexico with isentropic lift above the cold front and large scale
lift associated with the upper jet increase. Unseasonably cool
temperatures are expected in this pattern across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico in the cooler air with widespread clouds and
some precipitation.

Precipitation chances should decrease significantly behind this
system Tuesday through next Friday as upper level high pressure
slowly builds over the forecast area from the west. There could
be isolated afternoon thunderstorms on some of these days in the
mountains and possibly portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains
but will not mention at this time that far out into the forecast.
Temperatures are expected to warm but remain below normal Monday
through Wednesday and then climb to near normal values by next
Thursday and Friday.

The next Pacific system could bring the next chance for
precipitation to west Texas by next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     81  52  66  49 /   0  10  30  50
Carlsbad                       82  50  61  47 /  10  10  30  20
Dryden                         92  63  83  59 /   0  10  30  60
Fort Stockton                  87  57  76  51 /   0  10  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 76  47  59  41 /   0   0  20  20
Hobbs                          78  47  57  45 /   0  10  30  30
Marfa                          78  42  75  42 /  10   0  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           84  54  67  50 /   0  10  40  40
Odessa                         84  55  67  50 /   0  10  40  40
Wink                           88  55  69  51 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/12
888
FXUS64 KMAF 300429
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1129 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period. Light southwest to west winds
will become gusty 18-00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 924 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

UPDATE...

Updated forecast to cancel the Red Flag Warning.

DISCUSSION...

Observations across the area are no longer at red flag criteria so
the Red Flag Warning has been cancelled. With very few exceptions,
red flag conditions are not expected for the rest of the night.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

As an upper low across NM is lifting newd into SE Colorado with the
assocd Pacific front having moved e of the area leaving very windy
and dry conditions in its wake. NPW remains in effect with no
changes from previous issuance. Winds will subside pretty quickly
early this evening with a loose MSLP gradient overnight. A cooler
start is expected Sat AM, but still warming to around or just
below normal. Meanwhile a cold front will be dropping south
through the plains early Sun AM arriving into nrn CWFA around 12Z
Sun as another upper low to the west quickly fills and lifts thru
nrn NM. This will set-up an overrunning regime in the lower levels
resulting in increased clouds and light precip Sun AM, mostly
north of I-20 where temps may actually slowly fall thru the day as
NE winds increase. By late Sun night/early Mon AM a mid level
speed max atop the low level overrunning will be sufficient for
precip to develop. Most precip will likely be stratiform, but will
mention possibility of an isold embedded storms per lapse rates.
Light precip will attempt to develop wwd into Mon AM, but not
expected to make it thru the mtns. High temps Mon AM will be well
below normal under cloudy skies. Temps will still be well below
normal Tue, even s/w of the Pecos River. Mid level flow amplifies
Wed/Thur with ridging accompanied by a noticeable warm-up Wed-
Fri.

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire wx conditions across the wrn half of the CWFA will
subside this evening probably before the scheduled expiration of
03Z. For the next few hrs min RHS around 10% and 20ft west winds
of 20-30 mph and gusty are expected. We have opted to cancel the
Fire Weather Watch for Saturday as winds in the 5kft-10kft layer
are not indicative of widespread concerns, despite min RHs near 10
pct and warmer temps than today. A pattern change on Sun/Mon will
bring much cooler conditions with higher RHs to the mtns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  81  52  66 /  10   0  10  40
Carlsbad                       49  82  49  62 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         60  92  63  85 /  10   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  55  87  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 46  76  46  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  78  45  58 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          39  78  39  76 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  84  54  70 /  10   0  10  40
Odessa                         53  84  53  70 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           51  88  54  70 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
963
FXUS64 KMAF 300224
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
924 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated forecast to cancel the Red Flag Warning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Observations across the area are no longer at red flag criteria so
the Red Flag Warning has been cancelled. With very few exceptions,
red flag conditions are not expected for the rest of the night.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

As an upper low across NM is lifting newd into SE Colorado with the
assocd Pacific front having moved e of the area leaving very windy
and dry conditions in its wake. NPW remains in effect with no
changes from previous issuance. Winds will subside pretty quickly
early this evening with a loose MSLP gradient overnight. A cooler
start is expected Sat AM, but still warming to around or just
below normal. Meanwhile a cold front will be dropping south
through the plains early Sun AM arriving into nrn CWFA around 12Z
Sun as another upper low to the west quickly fills and lifts thru
nrn NM. This will set-up an overrunning regime in the lower levels
resulting in increased clouds and light precip Sun AM, mostly
north of I-20 where temps may actually slowly fall thru the day as
NE winds increase. By late Sun night/early Mon AM a mid level
speed max atop the low level overrunning will be sufficient for
precip to develop. Most precip will likely be stratiform, but will
mention possibility of an isold embedded storms per lapse rates.
Light precip will attempt to develop wwd into Mon AM, but not
expected to make it thru the mtns. High temps Mon AM will be well
below normal under cloudy skies. Temps will still be well below
normal Tue, even s/w of the Pecos River. Mid level flow amplifies
Wed/Thur with ridging accompanied by a noticeable warm-up Wed-
Fri.

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire wx conditions across the wrn half of the CWFA will
subside this evening probably before the scheduled expiration of
03Z. For the next few hrs min RHS around 10% and 20ft west winds
of 20-30 mph and gusty are expected. We have opted to cancel the
Fire Weather Watch for Saturday as winds in the 5kft-10kft layer
are not indicative of widespread concerns, despite min RHs near 10
pct and warmer temps than today. A pattern change on Sun/Mon will
bring much cooler conditions with higher RHs to the mtns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  81  52  66 /  10   0  10  40
Carlsbad                       49  82  49  62 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         60  92  63  85 /  10   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  55  87  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 46  76  46  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  78  45  58 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          39  78  39  76 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  84  54  70 /  10   0  10  40
Odessa                         53  84  53  70 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           51  88  54  70 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99
290
FXUS64 KMAF 300011
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
711 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...

Update to allow the Wind Advisory to expire and to cancel the rest
of the High Wind Warning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Gusty southwest to west winds across southeast New Mexico and most
of west Texas will begin to diminish between 30/00Z and 30/01Z as
they begin to decouple from stronger low and mid level wind maxima.
There may be a locations or two, especially over the Permian Basin
where the strongest mid level winds are indicated, that linger a
little longer, but the general trend will be for decreasing surface
wind speeds.  Therefore, will allow the Wind Advisory to expire at
the appointed time of 30/00Z.  The High Wind Warning in the
Guadalupe Mountains is supposed to last until 30/03Z.  However, none
of the observations sites are indicating high winds currently, and
have shown very few have struggled to surpass high wind
criteriaof40mph sustained or gusts of 58 mph or more.  Since model
data are indicating mid level winds over the Guadalupe Mountains
will diminish in the next couple of hours, will go ahead and cancel
the rest of the High Wind Warning at 30/00Z.

Although surface wind speeds will decrease between 30/00Z and
30/03Z, speeds will be strong enough to warrant continuation of the
Red Flag Warning until 30/03Z.  Will send an update at that time to
cancel it if wind speeds drop below 20 mph sustained.  The rest of
the forecast appears to be in good shape, so plan on not making any
other changes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 621 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

See 00z aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
decrease in strength over the next few hours and generally weaken
to below 12 kts during the overnight period. Winds will become
elevated out of the southwest Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

As an upper low across NM is lifting newd into SE Colorado with the
assocd Pacific front having moved e of the area leaving very windy
and dry conditions in its wake. NPW remains in effect with no
changes from previous issuance. Winds will subside pretty quickly
early this evening with a loose MSLP gradient overnight. A cooler
start is expected Sat AM, but still warming to around or just
below normal. Meanwhile a cold front will be dropping south
through the plains early Sun AM arriving into nrn CWFA around 12Z
Sun as another upper low to the west quickly fills and lifts thru
nrn NM. This will set-up an overrunning regime in the lower levels
resulting in increased clouds and light precip Sun AM, mostly
north of I-20 where temps may actually slowly fall thru the day as
NE winds increase. By late Sun night/early Mon AM a mid level
speed max atop the low level overrunning will be sufficient for
precip to develop. Most precip will likely be stratiform, but will
mention possibility of an isold embedded storms per lapse rates.
Light precip will attempt to develop wwd into Mon AM, but not
expected to make it thru the mtns. High temps Mon AM will be well
below normal under cloudy skies. Temps will still be well below
normal Tue, even s/w of the Pecos River. Mid level flow amplifies
Wed/Thur with ridging accompanied by a noticeable warm-up Wed-
Fri.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire wx conditions across the wrn half of the CWFA will
subside this evening probably before the scheduled expiration of
03Z. For the next few hrs min RHS around 10% and 20ft west winds
of 20-30 mph and gusty are expected. We have opted to cancel the
Fire Weather Watch for Saturday as winds in the 5kft-10kft layer
are not indicative of widespread concerns, despite min RHs near 10
pct and warmer temps than today. A pattern change on Sun/Mon will
bring much cooler conditions with higher RHs to the mtns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  81  52  66 /  10   0  10  40
Carlsbad                       49  82  49  62 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         60  92  63  85 /  10   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  55  87  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 46  76  46  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  78  45  58 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          39  78  39  76 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  84  54  70 /  10   0  10  40
Odessa                         53  84  53  70 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           51  88  54  70 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$
058
FXUS64 KMAF 292321
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
621 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
decrease in strength over the next few hours and generally weaken
to below 12 kts during the overnight period. Winds will become
elevated out of the southwest Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
As an upper low across NM is lifting newd into SE Colorado with the
assocd Pacific front having moved e of the area leaving very windy
and dry conditions in its wake. NPW remains in effect with no
changes from previous issuance. Winds will subside pretty quickly
early this evening with a loose MSLP gradient overnight. A cooler
start is expected Sat AM, but still warming to around or just
below normal. Meanwhile a cold front will be dropping south
through the plains early Sun AM arriving into nrn CWFA around 12Z
Sun as another upper low to the west quickly fills and lifts thru
nrn NM. This will set-up an overrunning regime in the lower levels
resulting in increased clouds and light precip Sun AM, mostly
north of I-20 where temps may actually slowly fall thru the day as
NE winds increase. By late Sun night/early Mon AM a mid level
speed max atop the low level overrunning will be sufficient for
precip to develop. Most precip will likely be stratiform, but will
mention possibility of an isold embedded storms per lapse rates.
Light precip will attempt to develop wwd into Mon AM, but not
expected to make it thru the mtns. High temps Mon AM will be well
below normal under cloudy skies. Temps will still be well below
normal Tue, even s/w of the Pecos River. Mid level flow amplifies
Wed/Thur with ridging accompanied by a noticeable warm-up Wed-
Fri.

FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire wx conditions across the wrn half of the CWFA will
subside this evening probably before the scheduled expiration of
03Z. For the next few hrs min RHS around 10% and 20ft west winds
of 20-30 mph and gusty are expected. We have opted to cancel the
Fire Weather Watch for Saturday as winds in the 5kft-10kft layer
are not indicative of widespread concerns, despite min RHs near 10
pct and warmer temps than today. A pattern change on Sun/Mon will
bring much cooler conditions with higher RHs to the mtns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  81  52  66 /  10   0  10  40
Carlsbad                       49  82  49  62 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         60  92  63  85 /  10   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  55  87  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 46  76  46  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  78  45  58 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          39  78  39  76 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  84  54  70 /  10   0  10  40
Odessa                         53  84  53  70 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           51  88  54  70 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

99/99/
117
FXUS64 KMAF 292006 CCA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
306 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
As an upper low across NM is lifting newd into SE Colorado with the
assocd Pacific front having moved e of the area leaving very windy
and dry conditions in its wake. NPW remains in effect with no
changes from previous issuance. Winds will subside pretty quickly
early this evening with a loose MSLP gradient overnight. A cooler
start is expected Sat AM, but still warming to around or just
below normal. Meanwhile a cold front will be dropping south
through the plains early Sun AM arriving into nrn CWFA around 12Z
Sun as another upper low to the west quickly fills and lifts thru
nrn NM. This will set-up an overrunning regime in the lower levels
resulting in increased clouds and light precip Sun AM, mostly
north of I-20 where temps may actually slowly fall thru the day as
NE winds increase. By late Sun night/early Mon AM a mid level
speed max atop the low level overrunning will be sufficient for
precip to develop. Most precip will likely be stratiform, but will
mention possibility of an isold embedded storms per lapse rates.
Light precip will attempt to develop wwd into Mon AM, but not
expected to make it thru the mtns. High temps Mon AM will be well
below normal under cloudy skies. Temps will still be well below
normal Tue, even s/w of the Pecos River. Mid level flow amplifies
Wed/Thur with ridging accompanied by a noticeable warm-up Wed-
Fri.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire wx conditions across the wrn half of the CWFA will
subside this evening probably before the scheduled expiration of
03Z. For the next few hrs min RHS around 10% and 20ft west winds
of 20-30 mph and gusty are expected. We have opted to cancel the
Fire Weather Watch for Saturday as winds in the 5kft-10kft layer
are not indicative of widespread concerns, despite min RHs near 10
pct and warmer temps than today. A pattern change on Sun/Mon will
bring much cooler conditions with higher RHs to the mtns.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  81  52  66 /  10   0  10  40
Carlsbad                       49  82  49  62 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         60  92  63  85 /  10   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  55  87  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 46  76  46  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  78  45  58 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          39  78  39  76 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  84  54  70 /  10   0  10  40
Odessa                         53  84  53  70 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           51  88  54  70 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$
418
FXUS64 KMAF 291912
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
212 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
As an upper low across NM is lifting newd into SE Colorado with the
assocd Pacific front having moved e of the area leaving very windy
and dry conditions in its wake. NPW remains in effect with no
changes from previous issuance. Winds will subside pretty quickly
early this evening with a loose MSLP gradient overnight. A cooler
start is expected Sat AM, but still warming to around or just
below normal. Meanwhile a cold front will be dropping south
through the plains early Sun AM arriving into nrn CWFA around 12Z
Sun as another upper low to the west quickly fills and lifts thru
nrn NM. This will set-up an overrunning regime in the lower levels
resulting in increased clouds and light precip Sun AM, mostly
north of I-20 where temps may actually slowly fall thru the day as
NE winds increase. By late Sun night/early Mon AM a mid level
speed max atop the low level overrunning will be sufficient for
precip to develop. Most precip will likely be stratiform, but will
mention possibility of an isold embedded storms per lapse rates.
Light precip will attempt to develop wwd into Mon AM, but not
expected to make it thru the mtns. High temps Mon AM will be well
below normal under cloudy skies. Temps will still be well below
normal Tue, even s/w of the Pecos River. Mid level flow amplifies
Wed/Thur with ridging accompanied by a noticeable warm-up Wed-
Fri.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire wx conditions across the wrn half of the CWFA will
subside this evening probably before the scheduled expiration of
03Z. For the next few hrs min RHS around 10% and 20ft west winds
of 20-30 mph and gusty are expected. We have opted to cancel the
Fire Weather Watch for Friday as winds in the 5kft-10kft layer
are not indicative of widespread concerns, despite min RHs near
10 pct and warmer temps than today. A pattern change on Sun/Mon
will bring much cooler conditions with higher RHs to the mtns.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  81  52  66 /  10   0  10  40
Carlsbad                       49  82  49  62 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         60  92  63  85 /  10   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  55  87  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 46  76  46  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  78  45  58 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          39  78  39  76 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  84  54  70 /  10   0  10  40
Odessa                         53  84  53  70 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           51  88  54  70 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$
942
FXUS64 KMAF 291744
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1244 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Southwest
winds will remain gusty through early evening, with gusts to 30 to
35KT possible. Gusts will diminish after sunset, with wind speeds
remaining generally 12KT or less thereafter.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A potent upper level low pressure system across the Four Corners
Region will move east onto the western High Plains by late this
afternoon. As this occurs westerly flow through the column will
rapidly push drier air east of the area this morning. Will include a
pre first period slight chance for thunderstorms across mainly the
Permian Basin as the dryline surges east. By mid morning windy
conditions are expected areawide due to a decent surface pressure
gradient and deep mixing developing. Decided to issue a Wind
Advisory for much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico for today.
Think the mos guidance is underestimating winds based on surface
gradient progged and contributions of stronger winds aloft. Will
continue the High Wind Warning today into this evening for the
Guadalupe Mountains. Went above guidance on high temperatures today
due to strong downslope and clearing skies.

The upper low is forecast to lift slowly northeast into the central
Plains and weaken tonight through Saturday night. This will allow
winds to decrease significantly with mostly clear skies continuing
with near normal temperatures.

Yet another Pacific system is forecast to impact the forecast
area Sunday and Monday. Backing mid level flow along with
increasing large scale lift will draw low level moisture
northwestward from the Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms will once
again be possible across much of the forecast area these days and
will be enhanced by isentropic lift behind a surface cold front and
surface easterly upslope flow behind the boundary. Behind the front
high temperatures Sunday and Monday are expected to be much below
normal aided by widespread cloudiness and precipitation.

Precipitation chances should decrease significantly behind this
system Tuesday through next Friday as upper level high pressure
builds over the forecast area from the west.  There could be
isolated afternoon thunderstorms on some of these days in the
mountains and possibly portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains
but will not mention at this time that far out. Temperatures will
remain cool Tuesday and Wednesday and then climb to near normal
values by next Thursday and Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Southeast winds and abundant low level moisture are currently being
seen across the area this morning. An upper level trough will move
across the area today pushing a dryline east and bringing in much
drier air. This combined with gusty west winds will cause Red Flag
conditions from the western Permian Basin, west to the Guadalupe
Mountains. Critical fire weather conditions may be seen farther east
but this area was not included in the Red Flag Warning due to
abundant moisture in the fuels. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
along the dryline as it moves east creating the potential for some
lightning starts.

Saturday the dry air will remain across the area but lighter winds
will diminish the fire weather threat everywhere except the
Guadalupe Mountains. Breezy conditions will remain in the mountains
may create critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon and a
Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Moisture increases Sunday with
widespread rainfall possible which should end the fire weather
threat for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  80  52  69 /  10   0  10  20
Carlsbad                       49  82  50  63 /   0  10  10  30
Dryden                         59  90  62  84 /  10   0  10  40
Fort Stockton                  54  86  56  77 /   0   0  10  40
Guadalupe Pass                 49  73  47  62 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          46  77  47  63 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          39  77  44  79 /   0  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           53  84  54  71 /  10   0  10  30
Odessa                         55  83  54  72 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           51  86  54  73 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
696
FXUS64 KMAF 291129
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
629 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Despite HOB showing a visibility of around 3SM at TAF issuance
time, VIS should improve very shortly with increasing southwest
and west winds this morning and will begin the TAF with VFR
conditions. All other TAF sites have already showed an improvement
in visibility and should stay VFR through the next 24 hours.
Southwest winds will become more westerly and gust to 30 to 35 kts
this afternoon diminishing after sunset.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A potent upper level low pressure system across the Four Corners
Region will move east onto the western High Plains by late this
afternoon. As this occurs westerly flow through the column will
rapidly push drier air east of the area this morning. Will include a
pre first period slight chance for thunderstorms across mainly the
Permian Basin as the dryline surges east. By mid morning windy
conditions are expected areawide due to a decent surface pressure
gradient and deep mixing developing. Decided to issue a Wind
Advisory for much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico for today.
Think the mos guidance is underestimating winds based on surface
gradient progged and contributions of stronger winds aloft. Will
continue the High Wind Warning today into this evening for the
Guadalupe Mountains. Went above guidance on high temperatures today
due to strong downslope and clearing skies.

The upper low is forecast to lift slowly northeast into the central
Plains and weaken tonight through Saturday night. This will allow
winds to decrease significantly with mostly clear skies continuing
with near normal temperatures.

Yet another Pacific system is forecast to impact the forecast
area Sunday and Monday. Backing mid level flow along with
increasing large scale lift will draw low level moisture
northwestward from the Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms will once
again be possible across much of the forecast area these days and
will be enhanced by isentropic lift behind a surface cold front and
surface easterly upslope flow behind the boundary. Behind the front
high temperatures Sunday and Monday are expected to be much below
normal aided by widespread cloudiness and precipitation.

Precipitation chances should decrease significantly behind this
system Tuesday through next Friday as upper level high pressure
builds over the forecast area from the west.  There could be
isolated afternoon thunderstorms on some of these days in the
mountains and possibly portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains
but will not mention at this time that far out. Temperatures will
remain cool Tuesday and Wednesday and then climb to near normal
values by next Thursday and Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Southeast winds and abundant low level moisture are currently being
seen across the area this morning. An upper level trough will move
across the area today pushing a dryline east and bringing in much
drier air. This combined with gusty west winds will cause Red Flag
conditions from the western Permian Basin, west to the Guadalupe
Mountains. Critical fire weather conditions may be seen farther east
but this area was not included in the Red Flag Warning due to
abundant moisture in the fuels. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
along the dryline as it moves east creating the potential for some
lightning starts.

Saturday the dry air will remain across the area but lighter winds
will diminish the fire weather threat everywhere except the
Guadalupe Mountains. Breezy conditions will remain in the mountains
may create critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon and a
Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Moisture increases Sunday with
widespread rainfall possible which should end the fire weather
threat for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     85  50  80  52 /  10  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       82  49  82  50 /  10   0  10  10
Dryden                         95  59  90  62 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  86  54  86  56 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 71  49  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          78  46  77  47 /  10   0   0  10
Marfa                          77  39  77  44 /   0   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           85  53  84  54 /  10  10   0  10
Odessa                         85  55  83  54 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           87  51  86  54 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Wind Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Borden-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/10
921
FXUS64 KMAF 290841
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
341 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A potent upper level low pressure system across the Four Corners
Region will move east onto the western High Plains by late this
afternoon. As this occurs westerly flow through the column will
rapidly push drier air east of the area this morning. Will include a
pre first period slight chance for thunderstorms across mainly the
Permian Basin as the dryline surges east. By mid morning windy
conditions are expected areawide due to a decent surface pressure
gradient and deep mixing developing. Decided to issue a Wind
Advisory for much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico for today.
Think the mos guidance is underestimating winds based on surface
gradient progged and contributions of stronger winds aloft. Will
continue the High Wind Warning today into this evening for the
Guadalupe Mountains. Went above guidance on high temperatures today
due to strong downslope and clearing skies.

The upper low is forecast to lift slowly northeast into the central
Plains and weaken tonight through Saturday night. This will allow
winds to decrease significantly with mostly clear skies continuing
with near normal temperatures.

Yet another Pacific system is forecast to impact the forecast
area Sunday and Monday. Backing mid level flow along with
increasing large scale lift will draw low level moisture
northwestward from the Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms will once
again be possible across much of the forecast area these days and
will be enhanced by isentropic lift behind a surface cold front and
surface easterly upslope flow behind the boundary. Behind the front
high temperatures Sunday and Monday are expected to be much below
normal aided by widespread cloudiness and precipitation.

Precipitation chances should decrease significantly behind this
system Tuesday through next Friday as upper level high pressure
builds over the forecast area from the west.  There could be
isolated afternoon thunderstorms on some of these days in the
mountains and possibly portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains
but will not mention at this time that far out. Temperatures will
remain cool Tuesday and Wednesday and then climb to near normal
values by next Thursday and Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Southeast winds and abundant low level moisture are currently being
seen across the area this morning. An upper level trough will move
across the area today pushing a dryline east and bringing in much
drier air. This combined with gusty west winds will cause Red Flag
conditions from the western Permian Basin, west to the Guadalupe
Mountains. Critical fire weather conditions may be seen farther east
but this area was not included in the Red Flag Warning due to
abundant moisture in the fuels. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
along the dryline as it moves east creating the potential for some
lightning starts.

Saturday the dry air will remain across the area but lighter winds
will diminish the fire weather threat everywhere except the
Guadalupe Mountains. Breezy conditions will remain in the mountains
may create critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon and a
Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Moisture increases Sunday with
widespread rainfall possible which should end the fire weather
threat for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     85  50  80  52 /  10  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       82  49  82  50 /  10   0  10  10
Dryden                         95  59  90  62 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  86  54  86  56 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 71  49  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          78  46  77  47 /  10   0   0  10
Marfa                          77  39  77  44 /   0   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           85  53  84  54 /  10  10   0  10
Odessa                         85  55  83  54 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           87  51  86  54 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Wind Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Borden-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

10/12

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