Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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119
FXUS64 KMAF 142306
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
506 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Gusty westerly winds will subside shortly after sunset and remain
light to modest the remainder of the TAF period. VFR then next 24
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the negatively-tilted upper trough extending from
ID SE to the Texas/OK Panhandles, resulting in a classic comma
cloud/baroclinic leaf over the Srn Plains.  The Pac front powered
thru KMAF at around 12Z, w/little fanfare noted except for weak
convection over the nrn/ern periphery of the FA.  Sfc obs show winds
approaching warning/advisory criteria over the Guadalupes and
adjacent plains, w/short-term models suggesting these criteria will
be met before the day is out.  Attm, see no reason to extend
warnings/advisories beyond 00Z, but next shift can extend if
necessary.  Although clr skies overnight will promote efficient
radiational cooling, forecast sfc pressure gradients should remain
tight enough to keep temps from dropping too far.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft quickly transitions to SW as the next
upper trough digs down along the west coast.  CAA is forecast to
continue thru Tuesday as sfc flow veers, resulting in blo-normal
temps Tuesday afternoon before return flow resumes.  Wednesday
night, the ECMWF/CMC bring a shortwave thru the region, whereas the
GFS/DGEX do not, which could bring a slight chance of -SHRA to the
eastern zones.  Thursday into Thursday night, the main trough
approaches and moves thru.  Models are still all over the place
w/temps as the trough moves thru, with the ECMWF still hinting at
frozen precip nrn zones.  We`ll continue w/-SHRA unless other models
follow.  The rest of the extended should see temps hovering around
normal, although the colder ECMWF may be weighting temps down a bit
much.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 7 PM MST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 7 PM MST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

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