Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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445
FXUS64 KMAF 250516
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1216 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
The dryline has returned as far w as KINK and near KHOB. E of
dryline S-SE winds around 15kts are prevailing and they will do
so thru most of the early morning. MVFR CIGS are expect at KMAF
btwn 11Z-14Z. The dryline will then push e again today with SW-W
winds of 15-20kts in its wake at the TAFS sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Dryline slowly moving back to the west with the wind shifting back
around to the south. Gusts have started to drop off as lower wind
speeds expected for this evening. Low clouds with MVFR cigs
possible at MAF before sunrise... otherwise VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Very warm, dry, and breezy conditions have overspread much of the
area this afternoon as the dryline has been quicker to push to
the east than previous days. Per current observations and radar
imagery, the dryline extends from just west of Tahoka south
through Lamesa, Stanton, and west of Garden City before curving
back to the west through the Stockton Plateau. The expectation is
for the dryline to continue to move east, with the greatest
potential for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening to be
across the Western Low Rolling Plains where instability looks to
be maximized around 4000-4500J/kg ahead of the dryline with 0-6km
shear increasing to around 40kt under difluent flow aloft. While
the strongest storms look to be north of the area, storms that
develop over the Western Low Rolling Plains this afternoon and
evening could become strong, with hail, gusty winds, and locally
heavy rainfall the primary threats. Storms that develop are
expected to move to the east, with a weakening trend expected
after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. In addition to
storm concerns today, critical fire weather conditions have
persisted across the Guadalupe Mountains and Southeast New Mexico
Plains, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect through this
evening. Little to no improvement is expected the next few days,
with continued critical conditions expected. Please see the Fire
Weather Discussion below for additional details.

The dryline will retreat westward tonight, with low-level RH progs
indicating a position near the TX/NM state line extending south
into the Big Bend Area by early Wednesday morning. Thus, low
clouds are expected to develop across the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos, with well above normal low temperatures in the mid
60s to low 70s east of the dryline due to moisture and cloud
cover. Similar trends are expected on Wednesday with the dryline
quickly pushing east of the area and a low-level thermal ridge
under continued southwesterly flow aloft. Have maintained forecast
high temperatures above the MOS guidance given its continued
under-forecasting of temperatures and over-forecasting of
dewpoints, with highs Wednesday in the 90s to lower 100s. There is
a slight chance of thunderstorms across the Big Bend Area and
Lower Trans Pecos on Wednesday afternoon, with chances increasing
along and south of I-10 on Wednesday night. As the dryline
retreats to the west on Thursday and heights begin to fall ahead
of the advancing trough, thunderstorms will be possible across the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Despite the dryline
not being as sharp as previous days, strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible, capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall through Thursday night.

As the upper trough responsible for the multiple rounds of
thunderstorms finally ejects into the Central Plains at the end of
the week, moisture will briefly be shunted to the east, yielding
dry conditions and slightly cooler temperatures Friday and
Saturday. Moisture then begins to return to the region on Sunday,
with dryline thunderstorms possible across the eastern half of the
forecast area from Sunday through at least midweek next week
while western portions of the forecast area remain warm and dry.

FIRE WEATHER...

Southwest flow aloft will persist over the region through Thursday
ahead of a slow moving upper level storm system, which will
allow dry air and above normal temperatures to prevail over the
region. In addition, southwesterly winds will be strong enough
each afternoon for critical fire weather conditions in the
Guadalupe Mountains, and at times the SE NM Plains. Even as the
base of the upper storm system passes by on Friday, temperatures
appear warm enough and winds strong enough for more critical fire
weather conditions for at least the Guadalupe Mountains. The
Haines Index will likely be 5 each day, if not 6, especially over
the Guadalupes and SE NM Plains.

Critical fire weather conditions will ease early this evening over
the southeast New Mexico Plains, and around 25/03Z in the
Guadalupe Mountains. Recovery will be poor tonight in these areas
with good recovery only expected along and east of a Seminole to
Kermit to Big Bend line. Southwest winds will increase to 20 mph
sustained again by Wednesday afternoon over the Guadalupes and SE
NM Plains. Since hot and dry conditions with minimum RH/s of 5 to
10 percent are also expected in these areas, the Fire Weather
Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning from 25/18Z to
26/03Z.

Poor recovery will occur again Wednesday night along and west of a
Hobbs to Pecos to Marfa line, with good recovery to the east.
Since little will change Thursday afternoon, expect critical fire
weather conditions again over the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico Plains. Will issue a Fire Weather Watch from
26/15Z to 27/03Z. Farther east, southwest winds do not appear
strong enough for critical fire weather conditions for several
hours Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     97  72  90  64 /  10  10  20  40
Carlsbad                       97  62  93  56 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         96  73  93  67 /  20  30  20  40
Fort Stockton                  98  71  94  63 /  10  20  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 88  59  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          95  62  89  56 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          90  55  86  48 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          100  71  94  64 /  10  10  10  30
Odessa                         99  71  93  63 /  10  10  10  30
Wink                           99  67  95  60 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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