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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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Product Version: 2013-06-18 22:57:53 2013-06-18 19:54:17 2013-06-18 17:31:29 2013-06-18 15:19:14 2013-06-18 11:17:16 2013-06-18 09:00:44 2013-06-18 04:38:24 2013-06-18 00:14:10 2013-06-17 23:46:41 2013-06-17 21:10:05 2013-06-17 19:11:02 2013-06-17 17:16:50 2013-06-17 15:27:10 2013-06-17 11:17:52 2013-06-17 09:21:14 2013-06-17 05:08:41 2013-06-16 23:29:00 2013-06-16 19:06:35 2013-06-16 17:28:37 2013-06-16 11:26:11 2013-06-16 09:09:48 2013-06-16 04:50:33 2013-06-15 23:32:45 2013-06-15 19:14:34 2013-06-15 17:22:38 2013-06-15 10:59:50 2013-06-15 08:54:43 2013-06-15 04:57:00 2013-06-14 23:39:01 2013-06-14 19:58:14 2013-06-14 17:17:00 2013-06-14 11:02:11 2013-06-14 09:32:24 2013-06-14 05:56:34 2013-06-13 23:30:17 2013-06-13 22:25:03 2013-06-13 17:14:32 2013-06-13 11:06:03 2013-06-13 08:21:07 2013-06-13 05:13:10 2013-06-12 21:57:26 2013-06-12 18:49:44 2013-06-12 17:35:33 2013-06-12 10:48:12 2013-06-12 08:53:47 2013-06-12 05:06:29 ALL   

284
FXUS64 KMAF 182257
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
557 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS. A FEW LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KMAF...BUT NO CEILING IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. ARE
POSSIBLE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST GENERALLY 5 TO
15 OVERNIGHT AND 10 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COOL START TO THE MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 60S...THANKS TO
OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY INCREASED TO THE
LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WITH
DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY
SAGGING INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN PER 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. WE COULD
GET SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THINK THE ATMOSPHERE MAY A LITTLE WORKED
OVER FROM YESTERDAY SO CHANCES ARE SMALL. THINK THE BEST CHANCE IS
ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAIN REGION WHERE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW AT
THE SURFACE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAIN.

GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TOMORROW THEN TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MEXICO BUILDS
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
GENERATE QPF ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES COINCIDING WITH A MID LEVEL
THETA E AXIS AND A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT.
WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THIS TIME.  OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO THE UPPER 90S WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE PECOS AND RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES BY
THE WEEKEND AS THE STRONG THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05