Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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831
FXUS64 KMAF 261126
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
626 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Clouds have cleared from TAF sites with some light fog in the
HOB area. SW winds, albeit light, have already developed and this
will be the idea for the day as dryline moves e of MAF by 18Z.
Mid level winds are stronger today as a trough passes to the
north and as such windy conditions are expected, especially
CNM/HOB. Also water vapor does show some waves so there will
likely be turbulence INVOF mtns today. Models are fairly
consistent keeping precip just e of MAF/FST late PM and as such
have opted to keep low probability TSRA out of the TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A few showers remain across the area this morning with the severe
thunderstorms now east of the CWA.  An upper trough is over Arizona
putting the area under southwest flow aloft.  The upper trough will
progress closer to the region today with the dryline expected to be
across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin this
afternoon.  The dryline will move back towards the western Permian
Basin this evening into the overnight period.  Good CAPE, bulk
shear, mid-level lapse rates, and upper lift will be over the area
this evening so severe weather is again possible later this
afternoon into the overnight hours tonight.  The best chance of
storms and severe weather will be across the Lower Trans Pecos,
eastern Permian Basin, and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Temperatures
this afternoon are expected to be cooler than yesterday and closer
to normal values.  Winds this afternoon are expected to get strong
in the Guadalupe Mountains and may briefly hit high wind criteria in
Guadalupe Pass.  Do not think that the rest of the Guadalupe
Mountains will experience high wind criteria so did not issue any
high wind products.  Critical fire weather conditions are expected
today across many locations west of the dryline.  See the Fire
Weather discussion below for additional information.

The upper trough will move over the Central Plains on Friday and the
dryline is expected to move to the east of the CWA during the
afternoon.  Another upper trough will develop over southern
California on Saturday and the dryline will once again be across the
Lower Trans Pecos and very far eastern Permian Basin during the
afternoon.  This will allow for thunderstorm chances across the far
eastern CWA.  The dryline is expected to move back west toward the
Upper Trans Pecos on Sunday allowing for increased storm chances for
locations east of the higher terrain.  This increase in
precipitation and cloud cover will allow for temperatures on Sunday
to be slightly below normal.  Conditions will not change much for
Monday except that the dryline will move east over the Permian Basin
during the afternoon.  The extended forecast looks to be fairly
similar as well with a continued chance of rain and storms across
the eastern half of the CWA and temperatures that are near or
slightly below normal.

FIRE WEATHER...

One more day in what has been a series of critical fire wx days
across parts of the west. A trough passing to the n will result in
stronger mid level winds (25-30kts@7h). Also there`s a consistent
signal in MOS/model surface winds of 20-30 mph, except higher in the
favored areas of the GDP Mtns where 25 to 40 mph is expected. Also
we have opted to include the far NW PB and from Van Horn area into
the Davis Mtns and Marfa areas and have upgrade to a RFW. It will be
cooler today, but there is still very dry air in place and the
dryline will push out into the central PB. A complicating factor
will be the potential for dry lightning from the Davis Mtns into the
Big Bend region later this afternoon. Haines indices will fall back
into 5 moderate, possibly 4 across the Davis Mtns/Big Bend depending
on mid level moisture. Even though it will be dry Friday critical
fire wx conditions will abate with less wind. The pattern of less
winds will persist thru Sunday across the west, but warm to hot.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  64  90  60 /  20  50  10  10
Carlsbad                       91  53  89  54 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         93  67  95  63 /  40  40  10  10
Fort Stockton                  93  59  91  58 /  20  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 80  54  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          88  55  86  54 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          87  45  82  43 /  10  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           93  61  90  58 /  20  30   0   0
Odessa                         93  61  90  58 /  10  30   0   0
Wink                           94  55  91  56 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10 PM
     CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

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