Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 181117

617 AM CDT Mon May 18 2015

See aviation discussion below.


Gulf moisture will continue to push northwestward this morning on
increasing southeast winds. Expecting TEMPO MVFR conditions at KMAF,
KINK, and KHOB through 16z as occasional Gulf stratus tracks across
those terminals. A strong upper level disturbance will bring a good
chance of thunderstorms to a majority of the terminals by late
this afternoon through tonight. Included a TEMPO group for MVFR/VFR
conditions in thunderstorms at most terminals in the 20z- 24z timeframe
this afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
tonight at most terminals and have included a PREVAILING group for
this activity beginning at 00z Tuesday at KMAF, KINK, and KHOB,
with TEMPO groups at KCNM, KPEQ, and PROB30 groups at KFST. Expect
southeast winds to increase to 15 to 25 mph and gusty by mid
morning and continue through this afternoon and tonight.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT Mon May 18 2015/

Satellite and observations are showing low clouds and dewpoints in
the upper 60s in the lower Trans Pecos beginning to surge
northwestward into the Permian Basin this morning. This moisture
will push up against the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains this
afternoon where daytime heating and an appropriately timed weak
upper trough will initiate convection. CAPE and shear will be more
than enough to support severe convection and SPC has almost the
entire area outlooked in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms
with large hail the main threat...but strong winds, and even
isolated tornadoes will also be possible.

Tuesday will see another round of convection with increasing
southwesterly flow ahead of an upper low over the Four Corners
developing a dryline over the western Permian Basin. Instability
will not be as high as today but again it should be enough to
support severe thunderstorms and once again the Permian Basin is
outlooked by SPC with a slight risk.

Things change a bit Wednesday with the approach of a weak cold
front. How far south the front pushes during the day on Wednesday
will affect thunderstorm earlier arrival will
bring cooler air in quicker and limit instability while a later
arrival will allow for better daytime heating and more
instability. The NAM is fastest with the timing of the front...and
is normally preferred in these situations due to its higher low
level resolution with the other models having a slower passage
after sunset. Despite this will go with model consensus and not
bring the front through Midland before peak heating at this time
but will have it entering the northeastern Basin with a good
temperature gradient from northeast to southwest. The front will
definitely be through by Thursday and cloudy skies and overrunning
precipitation will combine with the weak cold air advection to
drop temperatures well below normal.

Friday skies begin to clear out and afternoon heating will again
cause instability and keep thunderstorm chances in the forecast
through the weekend.



ANDREWS TX                 85  65  82  63  /  30  70  50  30
BIG SPRING TX              87  67  80  67  /  20  60  60  30
CARLSBAD NM                86  62  86  56  /  30  60  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  89  70  90  70  /  30  40  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  68  87  64  /  30  40  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          81  59  79  56  /  20  50  10  10
HOBBS NM                   83  63  81  62  /  30  70  40  20
MARFA TX                   83  54  85  49  /  20  30  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    87  67  82  65  /  20  60  50  30
ODESSA TX                  87  67  83  65  /  30  60  50  30
WINK TX                    88  68  87  66  /  30  60  30  20






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