Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 230527

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015


See 06z aviation discussion below.



VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across the area but did
not include TSRA at this time due to uncertainty about location
and timing. Winds will mostly be out of the south overnight before
a cold front moves into the area beginning around 15z. The
strongest winds appear to be at CNM and winds are expected to
shift to the east in the afternoon. Winds will likely be variable
with some gusts.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 229 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015/

Thunderstorms are again developing in the Davis Mountains this
afternoon. The main difference between yesterday and today will be
the lack of convective development or movement into southeastern
New Mexico or the Permian Basin. Storms will diminish later this
evening as the loss of insolation increases boundary layer

Models are still showing a weak cold front moving into northern
Lea County Sunday morning, then slowly sagging south to the I-20
corridor by the afternoon. Cooling from cold air advection will be
limited to southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern Permian
Basin, with more modest cooling due to increased cloud coverage
farther south and east. The highest rain chances will be along the
front but weak upper level support may allow for only widely
scattered convection to develop so have left PoPs at modest levels
for this forecast.

The front will lift north and undergo frontolysis beginning Monday
as an upper level high builds back over west Texas. This will end
rain chances for most areas though cannot rule out isolated
afternoon storms in the Davis Mountains. High temperatures will
once again climb into the upper 90s most locations but should
remain below 100 except in the valleys of the Pecos River and Rio






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