Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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146
FXUS64 KMAF 200845
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Models continue to show an upper low moving closer and increasing
rain chances, especially west of the Pecos River. Echoes are
decreasing on radar early this morning but should increase again
later today. Some showers could produce brief heavy rainfall
and isolated flash flooding could be a concern in the Davis and
Guadalupe Mountains. There is not a lot of movement with the low
so the best rain chances will remain west of Midland through
tomorrow night before finally spreading east on Wednesday.
Unfortunately by that time the low will have weakened so rainfall
amounts will probably not be as high as is expected in the western
CWA.

Most models do not show a front with the passage of the upper low
on Thursday with only the ECMWF showing a weak passage on
Thursday. An upper high does build into the four corners region by
Friday providing northerly upper flow so a weak frontal passage
does not seem out of the question though the only effect may be a
slight wind shift. The current forecast does not have any cooling
behind the front since the upper low is weakening and lifting
northeast, a situation not favorable for surface cold air
advection in west Texas. The high will move out of the four
corners and into Texas over the weekend causing temperatures to
once again rise well above normal.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  57  71  57  /  40  20  40  30
BIG SPRING TX              79  59  74  58  /  20  10  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                75  58  70  59  /  60  50  50  40
DRYDEN TX                  77  63  74  61  /  60  50  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  60  73  59  /  60  40  60  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  52  63  53  /  70  50  50  40
HOBBS NM                   74  55  70  56  /  50  30  40  30
MARFA TX                   70  51  66  50  /  70  50  60  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  58  73  58  /  30  30  40  20
ODESSA TX                  78  59  73  58  /  30  30  40  20
WINK TX                    78  60  74  60  /  50  40  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

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