Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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378
FXUS64 KMAF 151134
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
634 AM CDT Fri May 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CIG/VIS has unexpectedly moved into the area this morning and
may affect MAF/INK/HOB through 15Z. Do not have these conditions
at INK despite current observation due to satellite trends showing
this to be very temporary, it it may hang on longer than expected
and this location may need to be amended. Afterward expect VFR
conditions with TS developing after 00Z at CNM and HOB.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT Fri May 15 2015/

UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Have updated the grids to cancel the Flash Flood Watch for the
Permian Basin this morning.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Fri May 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level storm system along the west coast is expected to move
eastward today to the four corners region by Saturday morning. Another
lead shortwave is forecast to move into southeast New Mexico and
west Texas after dark tonight ahead of the system. While there could
be some isolated showers and thunderstorms along the surface trough/dry
line today in the eastern Permian Basin, expecting the bulk of the
thunderstorm activity to develop this evening across southeast New
Mexico along the retreating surface trough/dryline near the shortwave.
This activity should be able to survive and continue eastward
overnight into the Permian Basin and western Low Rolling plains
due to a 40 knot 850 millibar jet developing. Some of the storms
should be strong and perhaps severe especially across the northern
Permian Basin given a cape forecast of 1000 to 2500 j/kg and 0-6
kilometer shear values of 35 to 50 knots.

The Pacific storm system is progged to pass across the plains
states Saturday and Sunday. The flow aloft is forecast to increase
(especially Saturday) and become more zonal as a result. The
increase in the winds aloft may result in strong winds across
the Guadalupe Mountains Saturday and a High Wind Watch has been
issued for that area. It will become breezy to windy also Saturday
behind the dryline across the southeast New Mexico Plains, and
much of west Texas. A Wind Advisory may eventually be need for
some of these areas for Saturday. In addition thunderstorms can
not be ruled out across the extreme eastern Permian Basin both
days near the dryline.

Thunderstorm chances will continue every day next week due to an
endless series of Pacific storm systems stalling out across
the Rockies and interacting with a moist unstable airmass across
west Texas and southeast New Mexico. In addition some of the
medium range guidance is suggesting the possibility of occasional
heavy rain and flash flooding possible.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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