Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 250958

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
358 AM CST WED NOV 25 2015

Today will be our last day of fairly quiet weather before an upper
low across the Great Basin promotes unsettled/moist SW flow
aloft,increasing rain chances late tonight through the holiday
weekend. The LLJ has been relatively active tonight, bringing low
level moisture in the way of a stratus deck across eastern zones. A
skinny swath of fog has developed on the western edge of the low
clouds across Lea county east into the western Permian Basin. Fog
may briefly lower visibilities down to 1/2 mile at times. Low clouds
will edge eastward mid morning with mid and upper clouds increasing
from the SW. Above normal temperatures expected once again today
with highs generally in the 70s most locations.

The above mentioned upper low will dig in 28 to the Great Basin
region by tonight and remain fairly stationary for the next several
days, resulting in persistent SW flow aloft. This will continue to
maintain a constant stream of mid and upper level moisture from the
Pacific and the chance for a few waves to move overhead promoting
lift across the region. This may also include some tropical remnants
of Hurricane Sandra getting pulled over the region as it shears
apart this weekend. Meanwhile, increased southerly flow at the
surface will help increase low level moisture and dewpoints are
expected to jump into the upper 50s to low 60s by Thursday night.
Plentiful deep layer moisture will lead to impressive PWATs in the 1-
1.5" range by the end of the week. May see some light showers
develop late tonight however best chances arrive on Thanksgiving
Day. Thunderstorms will increase by mid-day Thursday as an upper jet
max impinges on the region. May see a brief period of increased CAPE
values (800-900 J/kg) during the afternoon but the main concern with
storms will be heavy rainfall. Above normal highs expected once
again Thursday with afternoon readings in the 70s.

Friday, the forecast becomes a little more complicated. A strong
cold front will push south through west Texas and southeast New
Mexico Friday with falling temperatures expected throughout the day.
The front will enter northern zones early Friday, with precip
continuing along and behind the front. The big question remains,
will there be wintry precip Friday night and Saturday as surface
temps fall near or below freezing? Possibly. It will all depend on
how cold this airmass will be, at the surface and aloft. Looking
at the latest forecast guidance, the GFS continues to be the
warmest with the NAM being the coolest and the ECMWF sitting in
the middle. According to the NAM, we could see a rain/freezing
rain mix as far south as Midland/Odessa early Saturday morning
however with the forecast sounding showing a 6-7C warm nose around
800mb, think the chance for any freezing rain this far south is
fairly low. Although the GFS forecast sounding for MAF shows cooler
temps aloft, it indicates warmer surface temps. This airmass
appears to be extremely shallow and with moderate rainfall
expected, think the latent heat release will overcome the cold air
at the surface so will lean toward the GFS solution attm. For
now, will keep the best possibility of rain/freezing rain mix
north across north/central Lea county, the northern Permian Basin
and potentially the mountain regions Friday night into Saturday
morning. With so much uncertainty, will continue to highlight the
potential for wintry precip in the HWO and Special Weather
Statement. This is all subject to change so be sure to check back
to get the latest forecast update. Elsewhere, precip type looks to
remain all rain and when the rain is all said and done, storm
total precip (Thursday- Sunday) looks to range from 2-3" across
the Permian Basin and 1-2" elsewhere. High temperatures Saturday
may range from the upper 30s north to the upper 40s south.

Rain chances will slowly come to an end from west to east Saturday
and Saturday night as the upper low out west finally breaks free and
slowly shifts NE. Zonal flow aloft expected by Sunday and
temperatures will back into the 50s through the beginning of the
next work week.


BIG SPRING TX                  71  61  69  45  /   0  30  50  70
CARLSBAD NM                    74  51  74  46  /   0  20  20  50
DRYDEN TX                      73  62  74  63  /   0  30  40  40
FORT STOCKTON TX               77  57  76  53  /   0  20  40  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX              69  52  67  47  /   0  20  30  50
HOBBS NM                       73  54  70  43  /   0  20  30  60
MARFA TX                       74  49  71  50  /   0  20  40  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        72  60  71  50  /   0  20  40  60
ODESSA TX                      71  60  71  50  /   0  20  40  60
WINK TX                        75  57  75  52  /   0  20  30  50





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