Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 081151

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
651 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015


Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.



Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the area
for most of the forecast period, with MVFR/IFR conditions
dominating. Winds will gradually shift to the east, with variable
gusts to 20-30kt possible near thunderstorms. Have included TEMPOs
for TSRA for all west Texas TAF sites late this afternoon where
confidence is highest, though thunder for CNM and HOB cannot be
ruled out. Improvements to VFR are expected to be short-lived
until late in the period when precipitation begins to wind down.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015/

An upper low over Srn AZ continuing to bring potential of heavy rain
to the area.  This low is expected to slowly move southward into
Mexico today and then pass off into the Pacific.  Eventually models
take this low in a circle and bring it back to Baja by next weekend
but will have to see how things develop.

Currently a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for SE NM and most
of W TX.  Have extended the watch out to 12z Friday.  As of 08z have
a large area of showers and thunderstorms on radar over the Western
Permian Basin... SE NM... the Trans Pecos... down into the Marfa
Plateau.  Have had a number of Flash Flood Warnings and advisories
overnight for heavy rain but have not heard much reports.  This
should change as the morning comes.

Even as the low moves south... showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop east of the low as it pulls moisture around.
Model qpf develops significant amounts of precip today across the
Permian Basin southward to the Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos.
Diffluent flow aloft and good PW values may result in additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches or more.  Will keep high pops for
the region today... tonight... and Friday.  Pops begin to decrease
Friday night with a dry forecast from Saturday night on.

Abundant cloud cover should keep temps below normal today and
tomorrow.  A weak boundary sags down into the area early today with
the wind becoming northerly before returning to the east during the
afternoon.  Temps begin to warm over the weekend into next week.

Heavy rain the last couple of days along the Rio Grande has resulted
in some river flooding near Candelaria.


NM...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County...Northern Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...
     Midland...Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.



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