Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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895
FXUS64 KMAF 261707
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1207 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Winds have been a little slow to increase this morning, but they
are still expected to become quite gusty this afternoon across all
TAF sites. Winds will diminish after sunset. VFR conditions
expected through the whole TAF period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The base of an upper trough will graze the forecast area today and
result in windy conditions areawide.  In addition, fire weather
isn`t over with yet since a good deal of the area will be under a
Red Flag Warning.  Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for
more details.

As mentioned above, an upper trough will pass by just north of the
region with strong mid level winds traversing the CWA today.  There
are several models indicating mid level winds will actually decrease
somewhat after 26/18Z.  However, strong subsidence will spread over
the area during the afternoon and mix a fairly deep layer of 30 to
35kt winds to the surface, which should result in southwest winds of
25 to 35 mph sustained winds, and gusts to 50 mph, along and west of
a line from Marfa/Alpine to Monahans to Midland and Lamesa.  There
are some indications these stronger winds will also affect portions
of the western Low Rolling Plains, but will monitor these areas
through the morning to see whether an Advisory is warranted.
As is usual, the strongest winds will occur in the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains, where sustained winds of 40 to 50 mph w/ gusts near
75 mph, and 35 to 45 mph w/ gusts near 60 mph are expected
respectively.  Have left the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe
Mountains the same, but whittled the new High Wind Warning for the
Davis Mountains down to 26/15Z to 27/03Z.  Also shortened the Wind
Advisory over the Plains to 26/16Z until 27/01Z.  Lastly, expect
blowing dust to accompany the windy conditions, especially along and
north of Interstate 20 in the Advisory area.  Temperatures will not
be quite as warm today, but will still be at or slightly above
normal due to compressional warming from southwesterly downslope
winds.

As the upper trough moves east, temperatures will be a little warmer
most areas Wednesday before shooting back above normal Thursday
under westerly flow aloft.  Another ua trough will head for the
region via the southwest ConUS and perhaps give eastern portions of
the forecast area a chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon along
a dryline, and a retreating dryline Thursday night.  There is much
disagreement, so have kept PoPs to a dull roar.  Later shifts will
have to reassess the feasibility of the dryline position and whether
a timely shortwave trough will be available to spark thunderstorm
development.  This next ua trough will be slow to pass by the region
as additional shortwave troughs drop southeastward into it and
potentially keep it in the vicinity through the weekend.  There will
be a little cooling over northern portions of the forecast area
Friday and Saturday because of it`s proximity, but a cold front
Saturday night could bring below normal temperatures and a chance of
rain as the upper low continues to loiter over the south central
ConUS through the weekend.  Adjustments to the forecast next weekend
will likely be forthcoming in subsequent days due to just how long
the upper low will be where model progs indicate it will be remains
in flux.

FIRE WEATHER...

The base of an upper level low pressure area near the Four Corners
Region will surge eastward toward the western high plains by this
evening.  This will allow the mid level winds to become westerly
and increase significantly across west Texas and southeast New
Mexico today.  This will also allow the dryline to surge eastward
from the western Permian Basin to central Texas by this evening.
Behind the dryline critical fire weather conditions will develop
by late this morning, early this afternoon as strong downslope
flow and deep mixing result in widespread windy conditions with
min rh/s dropping to 7 to 15 percent.  Will expand the Red Flag
Warning today to include southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, Big Bend, Trans Pecos and western
Permian Basin.  Will leave out the central and eastern Permian
Basin east of a Lamesa, Midland, Sanderson line due to recent
greenup as reflected in a lower fire danger rating.  Conditions
should improve by mid evening as winds subside due to nocturnal
cooling and rh/s rise above 15 percent.  Rh recovery tonight
however will be poor areawide.  For Wednesday and Thursday dry
conditions will continue across southeast New Mexico and much of
west Texas but fire weather concerns look to stay confined to the
mountains and southeast New Mexico plains as winds decrease
elsewhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     84  51  81  52 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       79  49  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         94  57  90  59 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  87  53  85  54 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 69  47  73  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          75  47  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          77  38  77  38 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           85  53  84  55 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         84  53  84  56 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           86  50  86  52 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Wednesday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area.

&&

$$

99/99/10

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