Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 191709

1209 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

See 18Z aviation discussion below.


By 18 today, low ceilings ha burned off across southeast New
Mexico an southwest Texas leaving only a few low clouds in the
Permian Basin and few high clouds over southwest Texas. During the
afternoon, scattered low clouds will develop and a few thunderstorms
are possible over the mountains of southwest Texas and over
southeast New Mexico. The chance of thunderstorms is too low to
include in terminal forecasts across this area. Skies will remain
generally scattered overnight with a few low clouds developing
near the Permian Basin. Due to the influence of high pressure
building aloft, ceilings are not expected. VFR conditions will
continue through 18Z Sunday. Winds will generally be south to
southeast at 12 knots or less, though occasional gusts below 20
knows are possible.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014/


The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.


MVFR ceilings are developing/spreading across west Texas into
southeast New Mexico, so will carry at all TAF sites through at
least 19/15Z.  Expect VFR conditions thereafter, however
thunderstorms will be possible at kCNM, KPEQ, KINK and KHOB.
Since probabilities are so low, will not include at any of these
sites at this time.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014/

Above normal temperatures will return to the forecast area for
the next 7 days as an upper level ridge builds across New Mexico
and west Texas. At the surface a lee trough is forecast to remain
in place across extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico through
early next week. Very intense heating along the surface trough in
the mountains combined with weak disturbances moving south within
the upper ridge should generate mainly afternoon and evening
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains, upper Trans
Pecos and portions of the western Permian Basin most days through

Beyond next Tuesday went with a dry forecast for now for the
remainder of the extended forecast through next Saturday. Will be
monitoring next Wednesday for a possible frontal passage and
increase chance of precipitation depicted on the ECMWF and CMC, but
confidence was not high for this scenario at this time. For next
Thursday through Saturday the upper ridge is forecast to drift
north across New Mexico with easterly flow aloft in place across
the region. Later shifts will need to monitor for the potential
of isolated storms in the mountains. Temperatures will continue
above normal next Wednesday through Friday.





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