Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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969
FXUS64 KMAF 201129
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
629 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS fairly widespread this morning and expected to stay so
thru the day, although have opted to lift CIGS to just above MVFR
by 21Z. Precip is n of MAf and e of HOB, but there is still new
development occurring. After a lull early this morning have
included TEMPO SHRA/TSRA late AM and PM at all sites. Any reprieve
from CIGS/VBSY this PM will limted with redevelopment expected
into Sun AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Have been dealing with flash flooding the past couple of days and
that looks to continue today... possibly into tonight or Sunday.
Waves of storms associated with the remains of T.S. Odile have moved
through with development of new storms across SE NM and the Permian
Basin early this morning.  Model guidance and qpf continues to be
very wet today so expect moderate to heavy rain will continue today.
QPF wants to produce significant amounts of precip over the Trans
Pecos and the Permian Basin over the next 24 hrs.  Trends are for
precip to not be as heavy today over the western counties including
Eddy county which has been hard hit.

Counting today MAF has measured precipitation 6 out of the last 8
days with a trace on another day.  Latest MAF sounding still had PW
of 1.77 inches which is down very slightly over yesterday but still
unusually high/wet for here.  So atmosphere remains very moist with
potential for locally heavy rain.  Model soundings actually increase
PW to the 1.8 to 1.9 inch range today and Sunday.   GFS has much
lower pops today... which is a departure as last few days it has
been just as wet as MET guidance.  GFS has the heaviest rain over
the Permian Basin before noon and south over the Davis Mtns and
Marfa Plateau during the afternoon.  GFS continues to produce rain
along the Pecos river and westward Sunday... and only a little in
the CWA on Monday.  Meso Eta still has lots of rain over the Permian
Basin today... and on Sunday continues to develop precip over the
Western Permian Basin... Trans Pecos... Davis Mtns... and the Marfa
Plateau.  So expect the flash flood event may continue into Sunday
and be ending by Monday.

Plan on extending the FFA at least another 12hrs as model qpf
continues to develop heavy rain today over water soaked areas.
Could justify extending the FFA through tonight as additional heavy
rain expected for some locations... but will hold off as may be able
to trim some of the counties from the watch tonight.

High temperature forecasts continue to be difficult and very
dependent on amount of rainfall at any one location.  Widespread
cloud cover again today and tonight will moderate temps.  Yesterday
the diurnal temperature range at MAF was only 8 degrees.  Have been
expecting a weak front to move into the area Sunday but latest
models do not show one moving in.  It does bring the wind more
easterly on Sunday but not much cooling so have bumped up temps a
couple degrees.  Sunday stayed to the high side of guidance pops but
still lower than Saturday.  Even lower pops Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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