Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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611
FXUS64 KMAF 280520
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1220 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light southeast winds this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 215 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Northeast to east mid level flow between an upper level ridge near
the Four Corners Region and a weak inverted trough across east
Texas will continue through Thursday. Weak disturbances embedded
within this flow, combined with old thunderstorm outflow
boundaries and intense heating (upslope flow) will trigger mainly
diurnal driven thunderstorms through Thursday. Pinpointing favored
areas for thunderstorm initiation in this weakly forced
environment is challenging, so will continue to mention isolated
to widely scattered storms areawide. The main threats with these
storms will continue to be brief gusty winds and brief heavy
rainfall. High temperatures will cool slightly Thursday to more
normal values under deep easterly flow.

Beyond Thursday through the weekend, deep easterly flow aloft
will continue between an upper level ridge centered in the
southern Rockies and a westward moving disturbance in central
Mexico. Very intense heating and upslope flow should spark, mainly
diurnally driven, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms in
and near the mountains. High temperatures are expected to warm
again to above normal values as 850 millibar temperatures warm a
couple of degrees, despite the easterly flow.

For Monday through next Wednesday guidance consensus is
indicating that the upper level ridge will shift eastward toward
the Plains and Mississippi Valley Region. This should allow
temperatures to remain above normal with the best chance of
convection across western areas from the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains eastward to the southeast New Plains and upper Trans
Pecos Region of west Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       72  96  71  98 /  10   0  10  10
Dryden                         77  96  75  97 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  74  95  73  96 /  10  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 68  88  68  88 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          69  94  69  95 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          65  88  65  89 /  10  20  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           74  97  74  98 /  10  10   0  10
Odessa                         75  96  74  97 /  10  10   0  10
Wink                           74  97  74  98 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10

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